http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/turning-their-backs-on-the-abbott-avalanche/story-e6frezz0-1226625466155

UNLESS there is an electoral miracle, the Gillard government will lose badly on September 14.

The election will be potentially devastating for Labor, especially in states like NSW and Queensland where it will lose some of its most talented members and possibly several senior ministers including Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer Wayne Swan.

In the aftermath Labor will need to use common sense and a strategic approach to rebuild the party. Indeed it needs to start thinking about that now, otherwise a coalition government led by Tony Abbott will be in office for a generation.

So what should the strategy be post an election loss (a big one apparently) for the ALP ?

More union influence and other dirty deals that got them into trouble ?

Can any effective strategy be implemented given how the ALP is controlled and dominated ?

The ALP usually succeeds when it has broader appeal not the vertical left wing ideology we see Gillard/Swan spewing out on a daily basis nor is any party going to succeed with a sword of credibility hanging over their heads.

So has the ALP put a line through the next election already ?
I can't recall polling looking so bad for a federal party, also I can not recall a time when the polling on individual seats drew an even uglier picture ....... while the national polls look bad, where it counts (marginals) it looks even worse.

The challenge for Labor is to put aside factional considerations and petty jealousies and find a way to effectively use the talent that it has in its ranks. The reality is that much of that potential talent is not in the federal parliament.

This will never happen

The problem for Labor is that it is all very well for their strategists to have a focus on introducing new and different talent to the states but this would leave a defeated federal Labor Party fighting for relevance, if not near extinction.

I can not recall a period when the ALP were being smashed at both levels, it has been a tradition for voters to differentiate state and federal politics........ no any more, brand Labor is on the nose at all levels.

It seems that there are two possible future leaders for federal Labor - Bill Shorten and Greg Combet. Shorten represents a Victorian seat and Combet a seat in NSW. Assuming they form a leadership team, Queensland would be bereft of senior representation. And the crucial fact is that, federally, Labor cannot win without Queensland.

Shorten is clearly an idiot as that you tube link shows, more important an unelectable idiot so he might be a good choice for first Abbott term opposition, that is no one will miss him. Combet might be a better option for second term when the ALP might have a chance, but that could be over 6+ years away. Combet hs some bad baggage, he has said some dumb things especially on carbon pricing.

In my opinion, the ALP strategy should embrace a twofold approach. There should be a leadership team which takes the ALP through the highly likely two terms that Abbott will get as prime minister, and then hand over to a future possible Labor prime minister in Shorten or Combet.

Given most (including me) have under estimated Abbott it could be more than 2 terms, especially of the Libs can pull off a smooth transition.

The ALP desperately needs experienced winners who can rebuild Labor at a federal level. Reliable operators who have the proven political skills to win back community support but who were not part of the disastrous decision-making process of the Gillard government and who would thus not be tainted by the odium of a defeated federal government.

You mean like Rudd ?
Other than him, politically the rest are rubbish.

The annihilation of the ALP in Queensland and NSW has left a dominating LNP government in Queensland and a coalition government in NSW that will throw resources and human capital behind the likely Abbott landslide.

Yes this will make it hard for the ALP to get noticed, they may require Abbott to fail to even get peoples ears.

After the 2010 electoral debalce the ALP got its political gurus to put together a paper on what they need to do to turn things around. It had lots of good ideas and could have been a template for a successful future. However, it has been ignored and the party has followed Gillard's left-wing incompetence to a slaughter of massiv proportions. It all smells like Whitlam and the similarities are huge. Except of course that Whitlam was an orator of significant skill with a charisma to macth while Gillard is Kath and Kim on a bad day.

Quote:

ALP Strategy - Post September defeat

Reject socialism

because of the in fighting and back stabbing... it will take a long time for anyone of them to trust each other... and thats the biggest problem I can see for anyone aspiring to be leader of the Labor Party..

would you trust anyone of them????... well would you?....

we the voters have lost so much trust in this lot... gillard will never ever own the damage she has done...but thats what it all comes down to...


you cannot tell people one thing and a few weeks later do the opposite without good reason....the only reason she had was to win a vote in her favor.....not a good look....

anyway who ever picks up the poisoned chalice...will of course never be PM..I agree it will take Abbott to really really stuff up badly and I cant see him doing that... this govt has been a real eye opener to anyone planning on being PM...

this is what you dont do..LOL almost every step of the way.

longweekend58

I keep hearing from the rusted on the ALP policies are not the problem is how they are sold ?????

So its like saying that dodgy looking car in the car yard that everyone ignores has not been sold because the sales person is incompetent.

Everything about the ALP is wrong, I can't find one person who I regard as politically  smart in the ALP except Rudd who they hate, the factions are well documented and openly abuse each other, the party structure is undemocratic and pro union, the brand ALP is clearly damaged at all levels, as for their policies, name one that people demanded at 2007 election that they have implemented and has worked effectively ? The coalition had work choices which hurt them, the ALP has the FWA/FWC which has been shown up as incompetent.

I really don't know where they should start the rebuilding process.

Labor needs to learn from the LIBs ie REPENT, FESS UP

Howard did it with the GST and took it to an election

The LIBs did it with Workchoices post 2007 election

Neither Shorten or Combet or anyone else in Labor can become leader unless they retract their Carbon Tax support and commentary

This carbon tax issue has now gone beyond whether it's good or bad - it now represents an election lie

Swagman

This is what Hawke did, but as support for the ALP and the MP's decrease even further (there will be 15-30 less after the next election depending on how big the defeat is) meaning the left overs will be the more socialistic thinking ones.

Good luck on that theory of them rejecting socialism, when Gillard got in trouble she was actually embracing it.

Everyone will keep an eye on what happens in the Senate when Abbott repeal the Carbon Tax

If Labor vote with the Greens - it will condemn itself to NeverLand for at least 3 terms

RightSadFred wrote on Apr 22^nd, 2013 at 10:19am:

Swagman This is what Hawke did, but as support for the ALP and the MP's decrease even further (there will be 15-30 less after the next election depending on how big the defeat is) meaning the left overs will be the more socialistic thinking ones. Good luck on that theory of them rejecting socialism, when Gillard got in trouble she was actually embracing it.

All Labor really have to do is be fiscally responsible.

All Labor Governments both Federal and State have been irresponsible in that regard.

They will find that it is difficult to be fiscally responsible and also have even a watered down socialist ideology as they are mutually exclusive.  :(

The challenge for any Govt going forward will be funding the humongous social costs of the retiring baby boomers.

Swagman

But the more ideologically balanced ones might be gone after the next election.

Being fiscally responsible has to be in your DNA, under Hawke/Keating the struggled under this concept, with this current lot they are so far gone they don't even know the meaning of it.

WRT to the aging population they have not even attempted anything, in fact on that score they have gone backwards.

Swagman wrote on Apr 22^nd, 2013 at 10:09am:

Quote: ALP Strategy - Post September defeat Reject socialism

http://policygrinder.com/jimmagruder/files/2011/04/govoutofmedicare.jpg

;)

Don't steal from Medicare to support socialized medicine?

Proof that house plants can write placards.

Life_goes_on wrote on Apr 22^nd, 2013 at 12:37pm:

Don't steal from Medicare to support socialized medicine? Proof that house plants can write placards.

yes, that one had me smiling too.

Hopefully post September we have another Labor-Green minority government. Why not stick with the status quo?

ALP Strategy - Post September defeat???

Simply wait!!!

If that is possible, without them continuing to destroy themselves, then they will be quite likely to be re-elected at the following Federal election, as the Public will again/still be looking for someone to blame, for the ongoing Economic problems!

good point perceptions,

abbott will face a HUGE task
campbell newman is very focused and very intelligent and very media savvy.
yet trying to fix the bligh mess is crueling him.

tony will be trying to unwind so much sh#t that i really think it may be beyond him.
the electorate are fickle and spoilt, the terms of trade appear to be worsening.
going to be a wild ride  and with gillard gone, they just need to put someone in charge of labor with even a smattering of charisma. still this could be a challenge. if i was invited to a dinner party at the labor caucus, i'd slit my wrists rather than sit and endure 4 hours of conversation with any of the current brain dead numpties.
martin ferguson is the only one i would talk to and that would only be to ask him to pass me the salt

perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22^nd, 2013 at 1:27pm:

ALP Strategy - Post September defeat??? Simply wait!!! If that is possible, without them continuing to destroy themselves, then they will be quite likely to be re-elected at the following Federal election, as the Public will again/still be looking for someone to blame, for the ongoing Economic problems!

While I agree, I don't know why. I've never had it so good.
Lowest interest rates Ive ever endured..check.
Plenty of work and happy with how much I'm earning....check.
Social issues like climate change at least being recognised.....check.
My son is getting a good education and we are well looked after via Medicare.....check.
We are not at war nor invading sovereign nations illegally.....check.
Looks pretty good from my end, what is so different for everyone else? Things could always be better, but I can't remember a time it was. I think Australians are just whiny little bitches, myself included.

skippy. wrote on Apr 22^nd, 2013 at 2:53pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22nd, 2013 at 1:27pm: ALP Strategy - Post September defeat??? Simply wait!!! If that is possible, without them continuing to destroy themselves, then they will be quite likely to be re-elected at the following Federal election, as the Public will again/still be looking for someone to blame, for the ongoing Economic problems! While I agree, I don't know why. I've never had it so good. Lowest interest rates Ive ever endured..check. Plenty of work and happy with how much I'm earning....check. Social issues like climate change at least being recognised.....check. My son is getting a good education and we are well looked after via Medicare.....check. We are not at war nor invading sovereign nations illegally.....check. Looks pretty good from my end, what is so different for everyone else? Things could always be better, but I can't remember a time it was. I think Australians are just whiny little bitches, myself included.

The following may assist, in realising some of the reasons, why you agree -
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1366518191/42#42

In fact, the low interest rates is actually an indicator in itself, that things are not going too well. Whilst we (OZ) are very low, we are not as low as many other countries, where "official" rates are actually zero,  have been for some time & look like staying there for quite some time.
Putting it mildly, THAT IS VERY, VERY UNUSUAL, & IT IS AN INDICATOR THAT THINGS ARE CROOK IN TULLAROOK!!

Btw, those same low interest rates are going to make life MORE DIFFICULT for many of the retiring Baby Boomers, as Share Markets come back down to earth & the Boomers incomes are severely impacted by the very low interest rates. 

low interest rates are usually a sign of an economy in decline.

longweekend58 wrote on Apr 22^nd, 2013 at 5:43pm:

low interest rats are usually a sign of an economy in decline.

That's very good of you Longy, for agreeing with, what I had previously said!


perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22^nd, 2013 at 3:44pm:

skippy. wrote on Apr 22nd, 2013 at 2:53pm: perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22nd, 2013 at 1:27pm: ALP Strategy - Post September defeat??? Simply wait!!! If that is possible, without them continuing to destroy themselves, then they will be quite likely to be re-elected at the following Federal election, as the Public will again/still be looking for someone to blame, for the ongoing Economic problems! While I agree, I don't know why. I've never had it so good. Lowest interest rates Ive ever endured..check. Plenty of work and happy with how much I'm earning....check. Social issues like climate change at least being recognised.....check. My son is getting a good education and we are well looked after via Medicare.....check. We are not at war nor invading sovereign nations illegally.....check. Looks pretty good from my end, what is so different for everyone else? Things could always be better, but I can't remember a time it was. I think Australians are just whiny little bitches, myself included. The following may assist, in realising some of the reasons, why you agree - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1366518191/42#42 In fact, the low interest rates is actually an indicator in itself, that things are not going too well. Whilst we (OZ) are very low, we are not as low as many other countries, where "official" rates are actually zero,  have been for some time & look like staying there for quite some time. Putting it mildly, THAT IS VERY, VERY UNUSUAL, & IT IS AN INDICATOR THAT THINGS ARE CROOK IN TULLAROOK!! Btw, those same low interest rates are going to make life MORE DIFFICULT for many of the retiring Baby Boomers, as Share Markets come back down to earth & the Boomers incomes are severely impacted by the very low interest rates.

perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22^nd, 2013 at 5:53pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Apr 22nd, 2013 at 5:43pm: low interest rats are usually a sign of an economy in decline. That's very good of you Longy, for agreeing with, what I had previously said! perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22nd, 2013 at 3:44pm: skippy. wrote on Apr 22nd, 2013 at 2:53pm: perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22nd, 2013 at 1:27pm: ALP Strategy - Post September defeat??? Simply wait!!! If that is possible, without them continuing to destroy themselves, then they will be quite likely to be re-elected at the following Federal election, as the Public will again/still be looking for someone to blame, for the ongoing Economic problems! While I agree, I don't know why. I've never had it so good. Lowest interest rates Ive ever endured..check. Plenty of work and happy with how much I'm earning....check. Social issues like climate change at least being recognised.....check. My son is getting a good education and we are well looked after via Medicare.....check. We are not at war nor invading sovereign nations illegally.....check. Looks pretty good from my end, what is so different for everyone else? Things could always be better, but I can't remember a time it was. I think Australians are just whiny little bitches, myself included. The following may assist, in realising some of the reasons, why you agree - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1366518191/42#42 In fact, the low interest rates is actually an indicator in itself, that things are not going too well. Whilst we (OZ) are very low, we are not as low as many other countries, where "official" rates are actually zero,  have been for some time & look like staying there for quite some time. Putting it mildly, THAT IS VERY, VERY UNUSUAL, & IT IS AN INDICATOR THAT THINGS ARE CROOK IN TULLAROOK!! Btw, those same low interest rates are going to make life MORE DIFFICULT for many of the retiring Baby Boomers, as Share Markets come back down to earth & the Boomers incomes are severely impacted by the very low interest rates.

even you can occasionally be right, even if it isnt very often. Mind you, remember that Howard had near record low rates in a BOOMING economy which demonstrates that it isnt a hard-and-fast rule.

TheGreenLight

I see no reason to stick with the status quo.

FYI the ALP hit the 39%2010 election primary mark for what was pretty much a draw.

This time around the draw mark is around 40% primary (based on analysis of distributions) and individual polling is drawing a very ugly picture for the ALP pretty much verified by three bad state elections.

Its a democracy and about 70% of the population are unhappy with the ALP in varying degrees.

longweekend58

Actually relatively our interest rates are high.

If you have higher interest rates you will attract money which is part of the reason our dollar is high.

That said we have a 2 speed economy but overall it looks better as other economies are dead or dying.

perceptions_now

They need to do more than wait, that strategy with Abbott (wait till he implodes) has failed and will continue to fail.

The big long term issue with the ALP is the personnel are recruited from left wing think tanks which seems to be getting worse, this current ALP is far more left wing toxic than it was under Gough. A government needs to govern for all and the ALP needs to stop looking for celebrities and start grooming more ordinary people with balanced views from a broader cross section.

People are more focused on the $$ these days are have little to no time for discussions on ideological politics especially the left wing variety. The ALP started to evolve and now its gone backwards to pre 1970's and self mutilating in the process.

RightSadFred wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2013 at 7:07am:

longweekend58 Actually relatively our interest rates are high. If you have higher interest rates you will attract money which is part of the reason our dollar is high. That said we have a 2 speed economy but overall it looks better as other economies are dead or dying.

Yea, not for long though. Unless our dollar drops and interest rates are bought in line with the rest of the world Australia WILL have a recession under an Abbott government. Well that's according to economists in a story in the Fairfax press this morning.  Which is just one reason I can't see Abbott lasting more than one term. Australians are whiny little bitches and he will be blamed for the mess we are about to endue. ;D

skippy.

I guess your demonstrating your complete lack of economic understanding, its about supply and demand, outside of Australia the major economies are struggling hence we look good. Interest rates are not brought into line they are determined by the flow of money and available credit.

You can see all the things you like, if the economy picks up then interest rates will go up with employment and wage growth.

You are getting desperate.

My view is that he may suffer the same fate that Rudd did, given the poor performance of the ALP it may be a decade or 2 before the ALP will be competitive especially if they are following your thought processes ...... might even be a century or 2

RightSadFred wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2013 at 9:03am:

skippy. I guess your demonstrating your complete lack of economic understanding, 2

Hey. Sadfred, when you read my post for the FIRST time you will see I was referring to an article written by economists in the Fairfax press this morning. If you want to pretend you have a greater understanding than the professionals, go ahead, you'll just look like a bigger wanker than you already do. :o

skippy.

So why are you so ignorant on economics then ?

Do you have comprehension problems as well ?

RightSadFred wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2013 at 7:07am:

longweekend58 Actually relatively our interest rates are high. If you have higher interest rates you will attract money which is part of the reason our dollar is high. That said we have a 2 speed economy but overall it looks better as other economies are dead or dying.

By global standards our rates are high. I was referring to our own history of rate movements. Our higher rates help protect us from some of the storms ravaging other economies as well as proving the RBA with room to move in a recession.

longweekend58

The RBA seems to be ignored more so under the ALP then under the Coalition, what has changed is the money supply side which has increased the cost of doing business as well as the ALP being regarded as economic idiots by the various economic groups and traders.

This has come out as a symptom of the banks reacting slower to RBA interest rate movements and sometimes ignoring them altogether.

RightSadFred wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2013 at 9:25am:

skippy. So why are you so ignorant on economics then ? Do you have comprehension problems as well ?

I'm just not a smart ass  that thinks he knows everything, like you. As I said before, if you want to pretend that you know more than the experts it is you that looks the wanker. I did not put forward my beliefs  I posted those of experts, now run along and play, preferably on the highway. ::)

skippy.

You look all smart ass to me and with zero credibility, try building credibility instead if you know what that means.

RightSadFred wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2013 at 11:17am:

skippy. You look all smart ass to me and with zero credibility, try building credibility instead if you know what that means.

v
Well if I look like that to you I must be doing something right. Retards,like you, are notorious for not catching on to even the simplest of comment as you have proven today::)