With Rudd back in the big chair everyone was expecting a bump for Labors primary vote and sure enough, it has been delivered - at least for now. In an nation-wide expression of "Thank God she's gone", Labors primary vote has risen from Gillard's woeful 29% up to 38% according to the Reachtel poll conducted yesterday. Interestingly the 9 point bump has not affected the liberal vote at all but the Greens dropped to just 2.5%.  Look at that number again...  nearly 10% down on last election and the kind of polling figures that Family First would feel comfy with.  2.5% means that maintaining their senate base is a dream and holding the Green lower house seat nothing more than a fantasy.

The 2PP is now 52/48 Liberals way making it a solid lead but not the public flogging pundits were predicting. The interesting point is that it has shown where labors primary support has gone - to the Greens and other minors.  The problem for Labor however is that they are not taking any votes from the liberals but merely from their fellow-travellers, the Greens. This is why a 9% rise in the primary vote has only translated to a 2% bump in the 2PP. its a good result for kevin and the labor party and vindication of the decision to return the knife Gillard stabbed him with. But it is a disaster for the Greens and still puts the ALP in opposition by a solid margin in 2 month's time.

Anything that smashes the greens has got to be good for all Australians.


So well done kev.  :)

BigOl64 wrote on Jun 28^th, 2013 at 8:07am:

Anything that smashes the greens has got to be good for all Australians. So well done kev.  :)

agreed. but dont tell FD.  He thinks the Greens are on trajectory to becoming a major party and greens_lose thinks their vote is 'surging'.

gotta love the denial!!!

The Commies are flooding back to Labor..that should make for an interesting dynamic if Kevin 07 carries Labor over the line.

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 28^th, 2013 at 8:11am:

agreed. but dont tell FD.  He thinks the Greens are on trajectory to becoming a major party and greens_lose thinks their vote is 'surging'. gotta love the denial!!!

Not just a river in egypt.  ;D

The Commies will have more of an influence on public policy from within Labor than they could ever have in the Greens so it seems to me that you fellas are suffering from premature celebration  :D

Is Rudd still of to visit his communist masters in China today?

The young people luv Kevin 07 coz he's a hip and happening dude.
"Fair suck of the sauce bottle"  :D

adelcrow wrote on Jun 28^th, 2013 at 8:27am:

The young people luv Kevin 07 coz he's a hip and happening dude. "Fair suck of the sauce bottle"  :D

I think it needs to be tested, what they should do is send him to a high school and line up a row of kids with sandwiches and place Rudd in front of them. This will help Labor work out if another change of leader is required before the election.

BlOoDy RiPpEr wrote on Jun 28^th, 2013 at 8:34am:

adelcrow wrote on Jun 28th, 2013 at 8:27am: The young people luv Kevin 07 coz he's a hip and happening dude. "Fair suck of the sauce bottle"  :D I think it needs to be tested, what they should do is send him to a high school and line up a row of kids with sandwiches and place Rudd in front of them. This will help Labor work out if another change of leader is required before the election.

Or perhaps he could be rolled out in front of Alan Jones and a few hundred old aged pensioners armed with butchers paper and crayons

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 28^th, 2013 at 8:02am:

With Rudd back in the big chair everyone was expecting a bump for Labors primary vote and sure enough, it has been delivered - at least for now. In an nation-wide expression of "Thank God she's gone", Labors primary vote has risen from Gillard's woeful 29% up to 38% according to the Reachtel poll conducted yesterday. Interestingly the 9 point bump has not affected the liberal vote at all but the Greens dropped to just 2.5%.  Look at that number again...  nearly 10% down on last election and the kind of polling figures that Family First would feel comfy with.  2.5% means that maintaining their senate base is a dream and holding the Green lower house seat nothing more than a fantasy. The 2PP is now 52/48 Liberals way making it a solid lead but not the public flogging pundits were predicting. The interesting point is that it has shown where labors primary support has gone - to the Greens and other minors.  The problem for Labor however is that they are not taking any votes from the liberals but merely from their fellow-travellers, the Greens. This is why a 9% rise in the primary vote has only translated to a 2% bump in the 2PP. its a good result for kevin and the labor party and vindication of the decision to return the knife Gillard stabbed him with. But it is a disaster for the Greens and still puts the ALP in opposition by a solid margin in 2 month's time.

There has been a polling anomaly all the way through with the greens, its margin of error stuff but consistently over 3 state elections the greens polling has been well under the national polling in the real state elections.

Is there an issue when surveyed, green voters remember what they want to do but when they walk into a real polling booth they either forget to vote greens or maybe they forget to vote. In the WA election they only go 7.2 % way below the double digits in the polling and what they got in 2010.

Its interesting, you would have thought that Rudd might of attracted more Liberal voters, but obviously the intelligent (hear this Peter Freedicklessgrub) voters see through Rudd while Gillard was so hated she made ALP voters vote greens and others.

Green voting all depends of the scarcity of drugs. If Drug supply is in sort supply in the community then Green voters will be too busy looking for Drugs to be bothered voting.

adelcrow wrote on Jun 28^th, 2013 at 8:21am:

The Commies will have more of an influence on public policy from within Labor than they could ever have in the Greens so it seems to me that you fellas are suffering from premature celebration  :D

It isn't the commies in Australia that have the numbers. Its the useful idiots.

I would have thought you fellas would be more concerned with Labors vote rather than the Greens..
The Greens led by Milne are never going to keep the Libs out of power but a revitalised Labor led by a popular Kevin 07 is not a good thing for an Abbott led Coalition.

adelcrow wrote on Jun 28^th, 2013 at 8:54am:

I would have thought you fellas would be more concerned with Labors vote rather than the Greens.. The Greens led by Milne are never going to keep the Libs out of power but a revitalised Labor led by a popular Kevin 07 is not a good thing for an Abbott led Coalition.

adelcrow

For the ALP to win they need to take votes off the coalition ..... the polls just show them taking it from the greens.

RightSadFred wrote on Jun 28^th, 2013 at 9:13am:

adelcrow wrote on Jun 28th, 2013 at 8:54am: I would have thought you fellas would be more concerned with Labors vote rather than the Greens.. The Greens led by Milne are never going to keep the Libs out of power but a revitalised Labor led by a popular Kevin 07 is not a good thing for an Abbott led Coalition. adelcrow For the ALP to win they need to take votes off the coalition ..... the polls just show them taking it from the greens.

I see you intentionally  ignoring the Morgan poll Fwed which says the GREENS numbers have only dropped half of one percent and the ALP have in fact taken at least four points off the coalition. It must be comforting for you living in delusion land. ::) ::) ::) the fact the Morgan poll says the numbers are too close to call must be giving you heart palpitations.

skippy. wrote on Jun 28^th, 2013 at 9:17am:

RightSadFred wrote on Jun 28th, 2013 at 9:13am: adelcrow wrote on Jun 28th, 2013 at 8:54am: I would have thought you fellas would be more concerned with Labors vote rather than the Greens.. The Greens led by Milne are never going to keep the Libs out of power but a revitalised Labor led by a popular Kevin 07 is not a good thing for an Abbott led Coalition. adelcrow For the ALP to win they need to take votes off the coalition ..... the polls just show them taking it from the greens. I see you intentionally  ignoring the Morgan poll Fwed which says the GREENS numbers have only dropped half of one percent and the ALP have in fact taken at least four points off the coalition. It must be comforting for you living in delusion land. ::) ::) ::) the fact the Morgan poll says the numbers are too close to call must be giving you heart palpitations.

Jeez, the eeeediot didn't mention "the conga line".........

skippy. wrote on Jun 28^th, 2013 at 9:17am:

RightSadFred wrote on Jun 28th, 2013 at 9:13am: adelcrow wrote on Jun 28th, 2013 at 8:54am: I would have thought you fellas would be more concerned with Labors vote rather than the Greens.. The Greens led by Milne are never going to keep the Libs out of power but a revitalised Labor led by a popular Kevin 07 is not a good thing for an Abbott led Coalition. adelcrow For the ALP to win they need to take votes off the coalition ..... the polls just show them taking it from the greens. I see you intentionally  ignoring the Morgan poll Fwed which says the GREENS numbers have only dropped half of one percent and the ALP have in fact taken at least four points off the coalition. It must be comforting for you living in delusion land. ::) ::) ::) the fact the Morgan poll says the numbers are too close to call must be giving you heart palpitations.

Their biggest fear is that the failing fortunes of the ALP have  been due to Gillard and Swans inability to communicate with the media and the public and that now the ALP have a decent communicator (even if he is a sociopath) in Kevin 07 they could very well be in opposition for another three years.

Socrates wrote on Jun 28^th, 2013 at 9:24am:

skippy. wrote on Jun 28th, 2013 at 9:17am: RightSadFred wrote on Jun 28th, 2013 at 9:13am: adelcrow wrote on Jun 28th, 2013 at 8:54am: I would have thought you fellas would be more concerned with Labors vote rather than the Greens.. The Greens led by Milne are never going to keep the Libs out of power but a revitalised Labor led by a popular Kevin 07 is not a good thing for an Abbott led Coalition. adelcrow For the ALP to win they need to take votes off the coalition ..... the polls just show them taking it from the greens. I see you intentionally  ignoring the Morgan poll Fwed which says the GREENS numbers have only dropped half of one percent and the ALP have in fact taken at least four points off the coalition. It must be comforting for you living in delusion land. ::) ::) ::) the fact the Morgan poll says the numbers are too close to call must be giving you heart palpitations. Jeez, the eeeediot didn't mention "the conga line".........

Glad you agree  with me. The fact you resort to personal insult just  highlights your lack of argument.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1372331874
;D

I wonder what clever signs Abbott is going to come up for Kevin 07 coz this one is kinda redundant now.

http://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/files/images/signs%20-%20from%20the%20sunshine%20state%20......JPG

watching Milne and Bandt being interviewed after the second coming....was like watching the Addams Family. I laughed I could not believe people voted for this pair..

I know politics has reached a new low in this country........ shorten has basically said it all..its not about the country its all about MEEEEEEEEEEEEE...

same with rudd didnt he say not that long ago.. he would not contest again??...then repeated it when he claimed he had too much integrity....LOL

they all think we have been struck down with the same memory loss they have.



I do not trust anyone that breaks their word over and over...

the greens will pay the price as they too sold their soul........ and for what?

cods wrote on Jun 28^th, 2013 at 10:07am:

I do not trust anyone that breaks their word over and over...

Well, poo, that greatly limits your voting choices.

The ALP is out, clearly. The LNP is out, clearly. The Greens have stuck to their word, so thats a possibility. After that you start getting into minor parties. Who will be getting your preferences?


Quote:

the greens will pay the price as they too sold their soul........ and for what?

Sold their soul? How?

I think that getting a price put on carbon is a good thing. Adding dental to medicare is a good thing. I think a lot of the greens achievements have been good things.

adelcrow wrote on Jun 28^th, 2013 at 8:54am:

I would have thought you fellas would be more concerned with Labors vote rather than the Greens.. The Greens led by Milne are never going to keep the Libs out of power but a revitalised Labor led by a popular Kevin 07 is not a good thing for an Abbott led Coalition.

in 2010 Labor won 15 seats on the back of the Greens 12% vote.  they will win none of them on 2.5% of the vote.

skippy. wrote on Jun 28^th, 2013 at 9:17am:

RightSadFred wrote on Jun 28th, 2013 at 9:13am: adelcrow wrote on Jun 28th, 2013 at 8:54am: I would have thought you fellas would be more concerned with Labors vote rather than the Greens.. The Greens led by Milne are never going to keep the Libs out of power but a revitalised Labor led by a popular Kevin 07 is not a good thing for an Abbott led Coalition. adelcrow For the ALP to win they need to take votes off the coalition ..... the polls just show them taking it from the greens. I see you intentionally  ignoring the Morgan poll Fwed which says the GREENS numbers have only dropped half of one percent and the ALP have in fact taken at least four points off the coalition. It must be comforting for you living in delusion land. ::) ::) ::) the fact the Morgan poll says the numbers are too close to call must be giving you heart palpitations.

so what would that tell an intelligent and experience political analyst???  It would tell them tat the polls are in a massive state of flux and that neither poll is likely to be all that accurate.  IN fact, it is the trends from repeated and competive polling groups that describes whats really going on. When two polls are miles apart then it indicates that both are wrong.  I'll take notice when I see some actual consensus among polling groups and some repeated results with actual trends.