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General Discussion >> Federal Politics >> The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1375928123 Message started by matty on Aug 8th, 2013 at 12:15pm |
Title: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by matty on Aug 8th, 2013 at 12:15pm
Labor has dismissed claims that Greens MP Adam Bandt is poised to win the seat of Melbourne with a ''giant vote'', with internal polling suggesting a close race between the two parties.
The ReachTEL poll, taken on July 29, reveals a primary vote for Labor candidate Cath Bowtell of 36 per cent, compared with 33.9 per cent for Mr Bandt and 22.9 per cent for Liberal candidate Sean Armistead. Based on the preference flows at the last election, the poll of 653 people, obtained by Fairfax Media, indicates Labor would reclaim the seat with 54.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. Advertisement It came as senior Liberal sources confirmed the party will direct voters to preference the Greens behind the ALP in the seat. It followed a decision before the 2010 election to direct preference to the Greens, ensuring Labor lost the left-leaning electorate for the first time in more than a century. ''There are processes to go through over the next week or so, but I can confirm we won't be directing preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor in Melbourne,'' the source said. ''It will be very, very difficult for the Greens to get across the line because of this.'' The results are at odds with a recent Galaxy poll, also taken towards the end of last month. It found the Greens' primary vote had surged from 36 per cent at the 2010 election to 48 per cent. It put Ms Bowtell on just 29 per cent, finding 21 per cent support for the Liberals. Those results raised the prospect Mr Bandt could get enough votes to win power in his own right without the need for preferences. In a letter to supporters, Mr Bandt predicted he was ''poised to hold Melbourne with a giant vote of 48 per cent'', although he warned the Greens vote could drop in the final weeks of the campaign ''as the old parties dominate the airwaves''. Mr Bandt on Wednesday said the only way Labor could win the seat was if they conspired with the Liberal Party on preferences. ''I've always said we will have to work hard to win this seat if Liberal and Labor collaborate, which is why I will be working right up until 6pm on election day to highlight the clear choices for the people of Melbourne on refugees, clean energy and university cuts,'' Mr Bandt said. But a Liberal Party decision to direct preferences to Labor in the seat is also likely to fuel tensions within the Coalition. It is believed the decision to preference Labor ahead of the Greens in Melbourne is part of an exchange in which Labor has agreed to direct its preferences towards the Liberal Party in the western Victorian seat of Mallee. Claims of a deal have inflamed tensions within the Coalition, making it likely the National Party will lose the seat it holds by a margin of 23 per cent. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/close-race-ahead-for-seat-of-melbourne-20130807-2rgu9.html#ixzz2bKaYlUIG |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by Verge on Aug 8th, 2013 at 12:47pm
Galaxy says its safe.
A ReachTel poll says its gone. There is no denying the preference deal between the Libs and ALP will make it harder. What makes it more interesting is the Libs are prepared to piss off the Nats in order to make it happen. |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by Grant Simpson on Aug 8th, 2013 at 12:50pm
i think they'll lose. Grant
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Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by matty on Aug 8th, 2013 at 12:59pm Verge wrote on Aug 8th, 2013 at 12:47pm:
Please explain. |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by Verge on Aug 8th, 2013 at 1:02pm matty wrote on Aug 8th, 2013 at 12:59pm:
Read your own post mate; But a Liberal Party decision to direct preferences to Labor in the seat is also likely to fuel tensions within the Coalition. It is believed the decision to preference Labor ahead of the Greens in Melbourne is part of an exchange in which Labor has agreed to direct its preferences towards the Liberal Party in the western Victorian seat of Mallee. Claims of a deal have inflamed tensions within the Coalition, making it likely the National Party will lose the seat it holds by a margin of 23 per cent. |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by longweekend58 on Aug 8th, 2013 at 1:17pm
it will be a great joy to see that snide arrogant little turd leave parliament. I would much rather have a labor person there than a slimy self-absorbed greenie like him.
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Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by corporate_whitey on Aug 8th, 2013 at 1:28pm
Adam Bandt needs to come out swinging with sensible Left Wing policies restricting the role of capital in the market and advocating for Labor ownership of the means of production to challenge the Labor party to match him. We need a race to the Left...
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Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by bambu on Aug 8th, 2013 at 1:39pm
Nationals should get with the program...for the greater good of the Coalition.
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Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by buzzanddidj on Aug 8th, 2013 at 1:41pm
It may not be preferences at ALL, that determines the outcome
Fears park to go for Melbourne link road July 21, 2013 Angry inner Melbourne residents fear precious parkland will be turned into a freeway overpass as part of Melbourne's East West Link road project. Ross Straw Field on the edge of Royal Park is home to a baseball club, soccer and cricket clubs, but will become an LA-style road flyover when the East West Link is built, the Greens say. On Sunday about 150 local residents gathered at the field to protest against the road. Protesters held up signs saying "No road tunnel" and "trains not tolls". Speakers said the parkland was vital to sporting clubs and an important part of Melbourne's much loved Royal Park. Member for Melbourne Adam Bandt said the parkland would potentially become a rats nest of on and off ramps. "We are going to lose huge chunks of Royal Park. This baseball diamond where we are at the moment is going to go and it's going to become LA-style flyovers going right past people's houses," he told reporters. Mr Bandt said people who where due to move into an apartment complex across the road from the park in the next few months will now have a flyover 50m from their windows. "We are going to make sure that this area of inner Melbourne remains the green lungs of the city and that there are parklands where all the people that live here can bring their kids to play," he said. http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2013/07/21/14/13/fears-park-to-go-for-melb-link-road Tony Abbott has promised funding Kevin Rudd has declined The proposed EastWest project runs right through the centre of the electorate ( ... including on and off ramps) A compulsory acquisition order will be made on several hundred homes and businesses - but details are being kept under wraps till after the Federal Election, by Premier Napthine It was THIS ... Quote:
... that STARTED the surge of Greens support in the electorate of Melbourne |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by cods on Aug 8th, 2013 at 1:44pm
the cheer when he goes down will be humungeous.
I cant wait to cheer.. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D :P on ya matty trust you are on the button with this one... not long now. |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by BigOl64 on Aug 8th, 2013 at 1:49pm buzzanddidj wrote on Aug 8th, 2013 at 1:41pm:
Just a quick question, I believe the roads in the city are either a state or local government issue, so besides running around like a monkey with its arse on fire, what the bugger is that moron bandt going to do? He can't do anyting in federal parliment, how is he going to get things done in state parliment, talk about a wasted vote. |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by cods on Aug 8th, 2013 at 1:56pm
big ole we have a part green local govt in the ACT .. and you should see what they are allowing to be done..
now the smallest piece of green park land.. has a sign on it telling us its going to be built on..... Burley Griffin must be spinning in his grave...as for knocking down trees.. well they put coloured netting around now so we dont see what they are doing... its the green way.. dont do as I do do as I say. this is developers paradise. |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by buzzanddidj on Aug 8th, 2013 at 2:08pm cods wrote on Aug 8th, 2013 at 1:56pm:
ONE SEAT - in the Legislative Assembly |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by cods on Aug 8th, 2013 at 2:19pm buzzanddidj wrote on Aug 8th, 2013 at 2:08pm:
ONE SEAT - in the Legislative Assembly you are right but that is new.... all the damage has been done with them sharing power with Labor.. and they are still doing just that... as it was a hung govt again............ this place is a mess its filthy they are even building a 10 lane highway through the place....no kidding..the L.A. of the future.imagine all those cars all that carbon all stuck here thanks to the mountains that surround your capital....just like L.A.USA. but thats ok its only money.. we know lefties dont give a stuff about that little detail. and as for consultation...lol. |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by bogarde73 on Aug 8th, 2013 at 3:36pm
it will be a great joy to see that snide arrogant little turd leave parliament. I would much rather have a labor person there than a slimy self-absorbed greenie like him.
longie, I heartily endorse your sentiments. The major parties ought to come to agreement never to preference these people and thus consign them to the dustbin. |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by Verge on Aug 8th, 2013 at 4:53pm bambu wrote on Aug 8th, 2013 at 1:39pm:
But thats not the case, because the Liberals are wanting ALP preferences to boot the nationals out. So what happens is the ALP picks up a seat, the Liberals pick up a seat the Nationals get nothing. Why cant the Liberals ask for a preference deal that actually increases the Coalition numbers in the house. All this deal does is take one from its own group. |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by longweekend58 on Aug 8th, 2013 at 5:02pm Verge wrote on Aug 8th, 2013 at 4:53pm:
they cant win Melbourne so it is irrelevant. the other seat is either nats or libs. either way it is a coalition win. |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by matty on Aug 8th, 2013 at 9:22pm Verge wrote on Aug 8th, 2013 at 4:53pm:
Fair point. I don't see the point in running a Liberal candidate in Mallee, just keep it with the Nationals. |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by Karnal on Aug 8th, 2013 at 10:25pm corporate_whitey wrote on Aug 8th, 2013 at 1:28pm:
True, Whitey. Matty used to be in the Greens, and he said they were like a watermelon - red on the inside. He joined the Libs soon after that. We might join the communists if Mr Abbott doesn’t get in. Thoughts? |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by Maqqa on Aug 8th, 2013 at 11:37pm bogarde73 wrote on Aug 8th, 2013 at 3:36pm:
I agree Every party should preference in such a way that the Greens will never get in again |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by Karnal on Aug 9th, 2013 at 12:01am Maqqa wrote on Aug 8th, 2013 at 11:37pm:
You don’t like their animal welfare policies? Please explain. |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by longweekend58 on Aug 9th, 2013 at 9:04am Karnal wrote on Aug 9th, 2013 at 12:01am:
they are spoilers. when holding the balance of power, they voted for so few things that the effective balance of power was the coalition. It labor wanted something passed they went straight to Abbott. Going to the Greens was rather pointless with their 96% NO vote record. |
Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by skippy. on Aug 9th, 2013 at 9:11am
Polls taken in the actual seat show the GREENS will just about win it without preferences, they're on about 47% primary, this thread is just another Matty wet dream, immature brats are renowned for them.
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Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by skippy. on Aug 9th, 2013 at 9:13am
Longlyingfool claiming the GREENS are spoilers is funny too, by saying 96% of Labor bills were passed by the coalition is he saying 96% of Labor bills must have been good. Good on you longlyingfool.
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Title: Re: The Greens to lose sole Lower House seat. Post by longweekend58 on Aug 9th, 2013 at 6:30pm skippy. wrote on Aug 9th, 2013 at 9:11am:
you might just get to see how preferential voting screws the Greens. if lib preferences go 90% to Labor then Labor WILL slip in front of Bandt and take the seat. It will be glorious to behold. I wonder if FD who loves boh the GREENs and PV will feel so happy when the clearly preferred candidate gets beaten by someone coming a distant second? |
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