Notwithstanding the inevitable, usual SPIN, put up by Politicians of all sorts, we are now facing a once in history set of Economic Drivers, which are combining to slowly strangle Local & Global Economics.

That said, our local Politicians, from both major Party's, are pretending that all is "normal" and that they can & will fix all our Economic ills, by using their "normal" Economic fixes.

Well, as is a well known fact, POLITICIANS (ALL OF THEM) TELL PORKIES! The fact is that none of the Politicians can or will "fix what is afflicting the Economy"!

I hear the usual SPIN statements -
1) We can/will fix the Economy, by getting the Budget back into Surplus (Austrian Economics).
2)  We can/will fix the Economy, by Stimulating Economic Growth (Keynesian Economics).

These "fixes", in general terms, are tried & tested standard Economics basics AND AT THE APPROPRIATE TIME IN THE ECONOMIC CYCLE THEY HAVE BEEN USED & THEY HAVE USUALLY BEEN SUCCESSFUL.

However, on this occasion, as I have suggested, we have NEW ECONOMIC REALITIES, in that the Economic Drivers that have backed Economic Growth for over 200 years is now leveling off, before going into actual Decline.

Without the Economic back-ups, neither the Austrian, nor the Keynesian basics Economics will restore our Local or the Global Economics to the past Status Quo's, as GROWTH IN DEMAND IS NOW LEVELING AND THEN IT WILL ACTUALLY SHRINK!!!

Why would I say such a thing?
Is it possible?
Well, regrettably YES & here's why -

During the historically recent period of global industrialization, the level of human population has been closely related to the amount of energy we have used.
http://www.paulchefurka.ca/WEAP/image001.png

This means Economic Growth has been underpinned be Population Growth, which in turn was underpinned by Growth in Energy Supply at good Prices.

However, putting the Energy Sources in Perspective, we are now faced with a Decline in Energy sources & a rising Cost of Energy, which means that Population Growth would start to level off, then Decline, even if there was no other negative factors driving Population levels down, which there is!

http://www.paulchefurka.ca/WEAP/image012.png 


As is well known, the Great Depression was finally ended by 2 major factors -
1) The massive Economic stimulus, commonly called WW2.
2) The massive Economic stimulus, commonly called the Baby Boomers generation.

These 2 massive stimuli's combined, not only to end the Great Depression, but they provided a boost that would back up Consumer Demand & therefore the Global Economy, for some 60 years!

The exceptional period that became the Baby Boomer BOOM is now ending and the combined effects of the Decline of Energy Supply & Rising Energy Prices would normally have spelled a massive problem for the Global Economy, all by itself, BUT when combined with the effects from the Retirement, then death of the largest generation in human history (the Baby Boomers), in a steadily growing demise over the next 20-30 years, the Economic effects will be truly massive!

In concert with the Decline of Energy & the Demise of the Baby Boomers, it is likely that the world population may still rise slightly to about 7.5 billion, before starting an inexorable decline to around 2 billion by 2100.
http://www.paulchefurka.ca/WEAP/image014.png

Whether this scenario plays out in full or only partially, IT IS STILL OBVIOUS THAT THE GOOD OLD DAYS OF DEMAND GROWTH IS NOW ABSOLUTELY DEAD!

Like it or not, this is our likely NEW ECONOMIC REALITY, which means that THE INCREASING DEMAND ECONOMY IS NOW SLOWLY DYING, AS IS THE GROWTH ECONOMY!

So, we either start looking at things Economic thru something other than rose colored glasses & we start to deal in Reality or we will disappear up our own ass, as will humanity as a whole!

The only logical conclusion is that no matter what any Politician may tell you, the "good old days" will not be returned & we either everyone starts living with these new realities OR the final result will be even worse than these scenario's may appear!

Some of this post is attributable to -
http://www.paulchefurka.ca/WEAP/WEAP.html
   

As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!

     

and havent we all been waiting for you to tell us all that? ::) ::)

I am sure you know exactly what we poor peasants can do about it?

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:06am:

As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!

I take it you are the only expurt on economics on here then?????and nobody else is allowed an opinion..

bit of a ticket you have on yourself percy

why are you not working in treasury?? instead of just leaving the few on here to be amazed at your accuracy you are wasted surely?

cods wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:21am:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:06am: As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!       I take it you are the only expurt on economics on here then?????and nobody else is allowed an opinion.. bit of a ticket you have on yourself percy why are you not working in treasury?? instead of just leaving the few on here to be amazed at your accuracy you are wasted surely?

you see cods.....

PN cuts and copy from Google searches and claims to be the expert

A truly knowledgeable person presents a discussion of concepts, it's application to reality and sprinkles facts into the discussion to back their assertions

PN can't do that

When PN tries - PN gets all muddled up between theory and reality. Muddle up between idealist textbook written decades in the past and the modern reality

The difference here between what longie and I present is far more better than what PN tries to present

This difference is comparable to the difference between a cook and a chef

PN can't even boil water

Maqqa wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:30am:

cods wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:21am: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:06am: As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!       I take it you are the only expurt on economics on here then?????and nobody else is allowed an opinion.. bit of a ticket you have on yourself percy why are you not working in treasury?? instead of just leaving the few on here to be amazed at your accuracy you are wasted surely? you see cods..... PN cuts and copy from Google searches and claims to be the expert A truly knowledgeable person presents a discussion of concepts, it's application to reality and sprinkles facts into the discussion to back their assertions PN can't do that When PN tries - PN gets all muddled up between theory and reality. Muddle up between idealist textbook written decades in the past and the modern reality The difference here between what longie and I present is far more better than what PN tries to present This difference is comparable to the difference between a cook and a chef PN can't even boil water

well I wouldnt know or understand any of it.. to be honest with you but to talk as if you have inside knowledge of what goes on in Govts is a bit of a stretch...

to each his own.. when it comes to finance I look at what I have to do and plan for which is the same as most responsible people   and then look at what the govt does and all I can do is shake my head... its wrong what they do...I dont expect all budgets to balance but I dont want to see massive blow outs either.. that tells me someone has got it all wrong....

put up all that stuff perc does and its blinding me with science... but dont tell me I am an idiot because I see things differently....I know he didnt name me.. because I am a dope with economics... but he does seem to dare anyone to disagree with him....maybe he should offer his services to Greece see where they are up for another bail out...the 3rd.. ::) ::) ::) ::)

Maqqa

At work I call those types Power Point Engineers, I meet up with many sales people and that is mostly what you get. The smarter ones seem to show up with nothing, not even a notebook. They take you out to lunch and don't pretend to understand what they are selling. They write down all the logistics required and all the questions I ask then get back to me.

Last year I was negotiating about $200k of work required and one guy did precisely such.

I described what I wanted, he just took notes. In slow time he sent me a draft SOW which I reviewed myself then sent to the commercial people who thought it looked OK.

Another vendor showed up with a full dog and pony show and tried answering the questions on the spot.

They seemed less interested in the problem I was trying to solve.

cods wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:21am:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:06am: As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!       I take it you are the only expurt on economics on here then?????and nobody else is allowed an opinion.. bit of a ticket you have on yourself percy why are you not working in treasury?? instead of just leaving the few on here to be amazed at your accuracy you are wasted surely?

Unlike some others, I actually recognize that I don't have all the answers!

However, I suppose due to my financial sector background, much of which was in insurance, I developed a habit of asking LOTS OF QUESTIONS & DUE TO THAT I MAY TEND TO LOOK A LITTLE DEEPER AT THE WHAT, WHERE, HOW & WHY, of some issues, particularly on Economics?

As for "allowing others their opinion", isn't that what is happening, by me posting here & therefore raising the alternative/s for discussion. Of course, that doesn't mean, I will simply allow others to get away with posting things which I understand to be incorrect, particularly on Economic issues & particularly if these other individuals hold themselves out as being ExSpurts", when clearly they are not!


As for working for Treasury, why would I want to be constrained within that regime AND in any event, I AM RETIRED & ENJOYING BEING SO!

Oh & finally, this thread is meant to be a discussion on the New Realities of Politics & Economics, so I look forward to any comments relating to those actual issues from yourself, Maqqa, Longy & anyone else.

RightSadFred wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:45am:

Maqqa At work I call those types Power Point Engineers, I meet up with many sales people and that is mostly what you get. The smarter ones seem to show up with nothing, not even a notebook. They take you out to lunch and don't pretend to understand what they are selling. They write down all the logistics required and all the questions I ask then get back to me. Last year I was negotiating about $200k of work required and one guy did precisely such. I described what I wanted, he just took notes. In slow time he sent me a draft SOW which I reviewed myself then sent to the commercial people who thought it looked OK. Another vendor showed up with a full dog and pony show and tried answering the questions on the spot. They seemed less interested in the problem I was trying to solve.

SOW - Statement of Work  ;D ;D

A project manager are you?

I agree with the engineer comment - they sit in glass bubble and purports to know reality

Maqqa wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:30am:

cods wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:21am: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:06am: As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!       I take it you are the only expurt on economics on here then?????and nobody else is allowed an opinion.. bit of a ticket you have on yourself percy why are you not working in treasury?? instead of just leaving the few on here to be amazed at your accuracy you are wasted surely? you see cods..... PN cuts and copy from Google searches and claims to be the expert A truly knowledgeable person presents a discussion of concepts, it's application to reality and sprinkles facts into the discussion to back their assertions PN can't do that When PN tries - PN gets all muddled up between theory and reality. Muddle up between idealist textbook written decades in the past and the modern reality The difference here between what longie and I present is far more better than what PN tries to present This difference is comparable to the difference between a cook and a chef PN can't even boil water

As I said Maqqa, I look forward to any comments relating to those actual issues
from yourself, Maqqa, Longy & anyone else.

As usual, your SPIN personal comments won't cut the mustard.

Of course, you could try to comment on the actual issues, although from your past tries, you won't get too far, as you have an apparent dose of NFI, when it comes to Economic issues!

Mr Abbott said within a decade - after another three elections - the Budget surplus will be 1 per cent of GDP, defence spending increased to 2 per cent of GDP, the private health insurance rebate fully restored but the Government would be a smaller percentage of the economy.

Link -
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-features/voters-urged-to-take-a-chance-on-coalition/story-fnho52jj-1226703748536

That is very unlikely, for 2 major reasons -
1) The Economy is very unlikely to recover, given the Global collapse of Economic Drivers and it will most likely deteriorate faster due to the Liberals AUS-terity programs and therefore a Surplus would only occur, IF the OZ Economy was migrating to a much worse place than it is now!
2) Given the likely Economic deterioration, it is extremely unlikely that the Libs would win 2 elections in a row, let alone 3!    

I re-post the following, as it is relevant to the current "discussion" on Pensions & Health Care costs.

And, as I have said previously, these issues & others have been  well known for quite some times (decades) and IF Labor & Liberal Pollies had taken appropriate actions, over the last 30-40 years, then the current "urgent discussions & Budget Emergencies", would not be taking place! 


perceptions_now wrote on Jun 19^th, 2010 at 10:18pm:

freediver wrote on Jun 19th, 2010 at 9:39pm: You are leaving out the cost of raising and educating children. That gets a lot cheaper when the population shrinks, and it is not an insiginficant chunk of government revenue. Plus, not all old people are useless, even if they don't know how to use a mouse. Oh, I am sure the cost of education is significant, just no where near the Pension & additional Health costs of the largest generation in history, the Baby Boomers. At least in OZ we have some advantages that other countries lack, for example we have a partial retirement fund for the Boomers under the "Super Guarantee" and the Dent level has started out low, whereas in the US most of their Boomers will retire pretty much with nothing and go straight onto the government pension and most other countries already have massive Debt. The estimates I have seen suggest somewhere around $50-60 Trillion in unfunded liabilities for aged Pensions & Health. By way of example, in days gone by, there were around 8 workers to fund the retirement of ONE retiree. Getting toward the end of the Boomer retirements, that ratio is estimated to decline to around 2/1! The strain on government Revenue Vs Outlays, on a Global basis, is set to do what happened in economic growth, Debt is going Exponential, at least for the short to medium term!

I re-post the following, as it provides "food for thought", as we now enter 2014, which is 50 years on from the "official" end of the Baby Boomer years.


perceptions_now wrote on Jun 25^th, 2010 at 2:07pm:

If my assumptions prove to be correct, then I would see the following graph of New Housing in the USA continue its overall downwards trend, for some time to come. http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2010/6/23/saupload_new_home_sales_lt.png The above graph comes from the following Seeking Alpha article - http://seekingalpha.com/article/211524-housing-numbers-show-worst-data-ever-recorded?source=email I would also suggest the following correlations, as food for thought - 1933 - 1983 (Birth rate starts to increase - Economy & Share markets start to rise) 1945 - 1995 (Birth rate goes into high gear - Economy takes off) 1956 - 2006 (Birth rate Peaks - Economy Peaks) 1964 - 2014 (End of Boomer Gen - ???) Good luck, watch the Debt & hope for Innovations, because Energy has Peaked!

Another flashback follows, highlighting the dilemma's now being faced -


perceptions_now wrote on Jun 26^th, 2010 at 11:36am:

Demographic boom getting ready to bust That ticking generational time bomb that politicians have been warning and arguing about for 30 years is about to explode on Jan. 1. That’s the day when the first of roughly 80 million baby boomers turn 65. The boomer generation was the largest in American history until the Millennial Generation, those under 30, came along. Whether you are a boomer or not, demographic trends will affect everything from taxes to immigration. In the midst of one of the most transformative demographic shifts ever, the United States is rapidly becoming grayer and browner. Eighty percent of those over 65 are white, compared to 56 percent of those under 15 — with Hispanics accounting for almost all the minority growth among children. By 2030, according to the Brookings Institution’s chief demographer, William Frey, 71 percent of the over-65 population and 46 percent of children under 15 will be white. Over the next decade, he predicts the working-age population will include 5 million fewer whites and 15 million more minorities, with 90 percent of the latter growth coming from Hispanics. In coming decades, the working-age population’s growth will be among demographic groups with the least education and work skills. The high school dropout rate for Hispanics, for instance, is about twice the national average, Frey said. At the same time, the huge generation of boomers is about to cash in on unsustainable entitlement promises. “You have an older, whiter generation that is really going to be sucking up all the money in the future (through) Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and interest on the debt that they have run up during their tenure of running things, versus a poorer, more minority generation that is not getting the money,” Davis said. What does this mean for you? If you are a senior or approaching retirement with adequate savings and a pension, not much beyond a generational urge to make your grandchildren’s’ country as strong and as prosperous as it has been for you. But some seniors may work longer, due to a lack of savings or because they work in professions like the sciences, where a dearth of qualified young workers may result in incentives to boomers to postpone retirement. But if you are younger, higher taxes — or serious adjustments to expectations — appear inevitable. It is very difficult to see how the United States solves its long-term debt and entitlement promises without higher taxes for the middle class and the rich, or by cutting retirement-focused entitlement programs. Tax-and-spend tensions are already emerging, with House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer saying this week that a serious discussion needs to take place before Congress permanently extends middle-class tax cuts passed in the early months of Obama’s administration. These are the hard truths that Americans say they want to hear from their politicians, but rarely do. Such positions often turn into political death sentences at the next election. Link - http://rocnow.com/article/opinion-syndicated-columns/20106240348 ==== What will the Boomer Bust mean for OZ? For a starter, higher taxes on those who can most afford it! Lower Benefits & Services, for some! An absolute efficiency drive, by governments at all levels and probably one less arm of government! A complete simplification of Services, Outlays & Revenues, particularly the Tax system!

Not surprising - If we continue as we have, by 2030 we will need 2 Earth's to continue using the same amount of resources.

It's time to look at other more technologically advanced ways to power our homes and cars, even stop our reliance on vehicles.

We could of course wait until it's too late - if we haven't already.

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2014 at 4:24pm:

Just because Politicians say something, doesn't make it true. In fact, usually the opposite is correct. In this instance, it is the opposite that is true, as the Global basics will make the Growth "aim" impossible! What Global Basics, you say, well - 1) Demographics have been the backstop of Economic Growth, for around 60-80 years, depending on which criteria is used and the Peaks & troughs of Demographics are usually reflected 50 years later. So, 2014 is now set to reflect the fact that the Baby Boomer era ended in 1964, which means Demand will Decline, not increase, as the last Boomers now go into their final savings years & the bulk of Boomers actually enter their "spendthrift" Retirement years. And, 2014 is also set for the Bust phase of the current & usual Economic Boom/Bust cycle. 2) Peak Energy has arrived, thus the cost of Energy & everything related to energy has been rising & will rise much more, thus eating greatly into the "Disposable income" of the vast majority of people, thus reducing Demand. 3) Global Debt is already at historic highs and moves must be made to start the long haul back! Thus Taxes must increase, Tax loopholes must be closed & Expenditures must Decrease, in order to start down the Debt reduction path. This also means that Demand will Decline, not increase! 4) Climate Change, irrespective of whether it is natural or man made, is causing many problems. It is driving up costs, it is set to deliver a Decline in Agricultural Production & in many areas a lack of rainfall will put restrictions on Population increases. All of which will put a further Decline into Demand! So, whilst our "friendly Pollies", of all shapes & sizes, from here & elsewhere & from all types of Political Party's may say they will "aim" for higher Growth, But the Reality is, based on Real Facts, they have as much chance of success in achieving their higher Growth  "aim", as does a Pig in trying to Fly, the Pig may try, but all that's going to happen is he will make the leap "of faith", then die, as he crashes to the ground! Sorry, to be so blunt, But facts are facts and nothing any Polly will say, is going to make these facts go away!

Further to the Peak Energy issue -

Running on empty: Australia’s dependence on imported fossil fuels


Australia’s dependence on traditional and imported liquid fuel sources and transport technologies is putting our national security – and very way of life – at risk, a new study has found. Yet Australia continues to ignore alternative fuel strategies, that could include more renewable energy and electric vehicles.

An NRMA-commissioned report on the nation’s liquid fuel security, released on Monday, warns that Australia’s severely declining oil refining industry, and increasing demand for liquid fuels, could result in a scenario in 2030 where it has less than 20 days worth of fuel in reserve, and 100 per cent imported liquid fuel dependency.

Titled Australia’s Liquid Fuel Security, the report recommends a comprehensive, national response that addresses both demand and supply sides of the liquid fuel delivery chain, including increased focus on the technologies and energy sources used and alternative fuel supply.

“Waiting for a catastrophic failure before acting could result in damage to our security, our economy and our way of life. And the longer we wait to act, the fewer options we will have.”

Link -
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/running-on-empty-australias-dependence-on-imported-fossil-fuels-92310
===========================================
The last sentence above, may ring a few bells, as that is pretty much what all of our Politicians have done, for the OZ Economy in general, over the last 40-50 years and now is the time "to reap what has been sown".

Oh & btw, Australia's own Oil Production has Decline some 50%, since the turn of the century and Production continues to slide!

Yep, things is bleak awright.
The only way out of this mess is one bloody great big world war, we are overdue for one.

mozzaok wrote on Feb 25^th, 2014 at 9:19am:

Yep, things is bleak awright. The only way out of this mess is one bloody great big world war, we are overdue for one.

Good. You and your sons can be first to sign up.

mozzaok wrote on Feb 25^th, 2014 at 9:19am:

Yep, things is bleak awright. The only way out of this mess is one bloody great big world war, we are overdue for one.

Not a solution Mozza, just a recipe for greater disaster!

crocodile wrote on Feb 25^th, 2014 at 9:34am:

mozzaok wrote on Feb 25th, 2014 at 9:19am: Yep, things is bleak awright. The only way out of this mess is one bloody great big world war, we are overdue for one. Good. You and your sons can be first to sign up.

lmao, don't blame me, I won't be the one that starts it.
I am just saying if history repeats, big depression, big war.

A real, FTTH, NBN would have helped mitigate some of what is coming:

1. More working from home so less petrol used and all that.

2. Helps with education, allowing small schools to access specialist teachers

3. Telehealth helping keep Boomer health costs under some sort of control

4. Improve labor productivity, helping the smaller (relative) workforce support the aging Boomers

I have banged on about this heaps, have supported what I have said in the NBN thread. This is a way to avert some of the crisis.

Similarly—the RET would help eke out fossil fuels.

The economics of a shrinking market and population have not been studied as far as I know but some things spring to mind: cities shrink so daily commutes shrink too saving energy, the crime and drugs endemic in underserviced outer suburbs would shrink because outer suburbs (as we know them now) would disappear. Agricultural land can be reclaimed, school class sizes can shrink. But some businesses will be hit hard, the whole capitalist model of economies will be hit hard.

Some religions will still preach that people should reproduce like rabbits, Catholisicm and Muslim spring to mind so conflict won’t disappear.

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 25^th, 2014 at 9:15am:

Further to the Peak Energy issue - Running on empty: Australia’s dependence on imported fossil fuels Australia’s dependence on traditional and imported liquid fuel sources and transport technologies is putting our national security – and very way of life – at risk, a new study has found. Yet Australia continues to ignore alternative fuel strategies, that could include more renewable energy and electric vehicles. An NRMA-commissioned report on the nation’s liquid fuel security, released on Monday, warns that Australia’s severely declining oil refining industry, and increasing demand for liquid fuels, could result in a scenario in 2030 where it has less than 20 days worth of fuel in reserve, and 100 per cent imported liquid fuel dependency. Titled Australia’s Liquid Fuel Security, the report recommends a comprehensive, national response that addresses both demand and supply sides of the liquid fuel delivery chain, including increased focus on the technologies and energy sources used and alternative fuel supply. “Waiting for a catastrophic failure before acting could result in damage to our security, our economy and our way of life. And the longer we wait to act, the fewer options we will have.” Link - http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/running-on-empty-australias-dependence-on-imported-fossil-fuels-92310 =========================================== The last sentence above, may ring a few bells, as that is pretty much what all of our Politicians have done, for the OZ Economy in general, over the last 40-50 years and now is the time "to reap what has been sown". Oh & btw, Australia's own Oil Production has Decline some 50%, since the turn of the century and Production continues to slide!

As long as we rely on a source of fuel that is extracted and not grown, we are vulnerable to any future constraints on the supply of fossil fuels. When - not if - the next oil shock arrives, we will experience more stagflation, and it could makes the stagflation of the 1970s look mild by comparison both in severity and in duration.

We should invest more in the development of sustainable fuels as a matter of urgency. Biodiesel from microscopic algae may be feasible, as would be biodiesel from kelp.

Algae can be grown in deserts. Kelp can be grown in the open ocean. Neither would consume existing agricultural land and both have good yields.

The current cost of these biofuels is more expensive than fossil fuels, but not much more. This cost will come down due to economies of scale and research while the prices of fossil fuels climb inexorably upwards.

Where do we want to be in 20 years' time - self supporting in fuel, or still reliant on imported fuels at ever more exorbitant prices?

We can always make petrol from coal, but it won’t be cheap or clean.

We have a shitload of gas

Household gas prices to increase by 17.6 per cent in New South Wales

The Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) has released a draft decision on regulated gas prices in New South Wales, suggesting an increase of around 17.6 per cent.

IPART's draft decision would take effect from the 2014-15 financial year.

It means from July 1, typical annual gas bills will rise by between $150 and $225 for households, depending on where people live and how much gas they use.

IPART chairman Dr Peter Boxall says the increases are largely due to rising wholesale gas prices.

"The ability to export liquid natural gas is driving a structural change in eastern Australia's wholesale gas market, and increasingly domestic gas prices will be influenced by what is happening in world gas markets," he says.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-23/household-gas-prices-going-up-176-per-cent-in-nsw/5406752


Australia inflation lower than feared, lessens rate hike risk

Australian inflation was surprisingly tame last quarter showing a moderation that greatly lessened the pressure for a hike in interest rates this year and sent the local dollar sharply lower.

A key measure of underlying inflation rose by only 0.5 percent in the first quarter and 2.6 percent for the year, well below forecasts of 0.7 percent and 2.9 percent respectively.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/23/us-australia-economy-idUSBREA3M05K20140423
=========================================
There are a few comments, which must be made -
1) Obviously there is much more driving Gas Prices, than the standard inflation factors, as is demonstrated by Gas prices going up 5 times what inflation is increasing by.
2) The Export market is driving much more than structural change in the Gas market, it is also driving huge profit margins, for someone?
3) Did they really say Independent in the IPART name?
Independent of whom?
Certainly, independent of the public, But someone certainly has them onside?
I wonder whom that could be? (BIG Energy? Government?) 

Perhaps if BIG Energy, Government/s & Independent Government Agencies can't properly separate Global & Local Prices, then it may be time to separate BIG Energy from being able to dig up & sell "Our Limited Natural Resources", particularly those which are Energy Resources!!!

crocodile wrote on Feb 25^th, 2014 at 9:24pm:

We have a shitload of gas

Try a couple of 'Quik-Eze' tablets. That should help.  :P  :P

Maqqa wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:30am:

cods wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:21am: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:06am: As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!       I take it you are the only expurt on economics on here then?????and nobody else is allowed an opinion.. bit of a ticket you have on yourself percy why are you not working in treasury?? instead of just leaving the few on here to be amazed at your accuracy you are wasted surely? you see cods..... PN cuts and copy from Google searches and claims to be the expert A truly knowledgeable person presents a discussion of concepts, it's application to reality and sprinkles facts into the discussion to back their assertions PN can't do that When PN tries - PN gets all muddled up between theory and reality. Muddle up between idealist textbook written decades in the past and the modern reality The difference here between what longie and I present is far more better than what PN tries to present This difference is comparable to the difference between a cook and a chef PN can't even boil water

agreeing with Cods on economics ...thats sure to do a lot for your credibility gumpy. ;D ;D ;D ;D

[quote author=perceptions_now link=1377342710/24#24 date=1398239095]Household gas prices to increase by 17.6 per cent in New South Wales

The Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) has released a draft decision on regulated gas prices in New South Wales, suggesting an increase of around 17.6 per cent.

IPART's draft decision would take effect from the 2014-15 financial year.

It means from July 1, typical annual gas bills will rise by between $150 and $225 for households, depending on where people live and how much gas they use.

IPART chairman Dr Peter Boxall says the increases are largely due to rising wholesale gas prices.

"The ability to export liquid natural gas is driving a structural change in eastern Australia's wholesale gas market, and increasingly domestic gas prices will be influenced by what is happening in world gas markets," he says.

[/quote]


Well, there goes mine.

I'm already struggling with these obscenely high gas/electricity bills, now I'll have no option but to let the gas go altogether.

I'll have to go back to wood or coal heating (or double my power bill by using electric heating).

Kat wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2014 at 6:25pm:

[quote author=perceptions_now link=1377342710/24#24 date=1398239095]Household gas prices to increase by 17.6 per cent in New South Wales The Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) has released a draft decision on regulated gas prices in New South Wales, suggesting an increase of around 17.6 per cent. IPART's draft decision would take effect from the 2014-15 financial year. It means from July 1, typical annual gas bills will rise by between $150 and $225 for households, depending on where people live and how much gas they use. IPART chairman Dr Peter Boxall says the increases are largely due to rising wholesale gas prices. "The ability to export liquid natural gas is driving a structural change in eastern Australia's wholesale gas market, and increasingly domestic gas prices will be influenced by what is happening in world gas markets," he says. [/quote] Well, there goes mine. I'm already struggling with these obscenely high gas/electricity bills, now I'll have no option but to let the gas go altogether. I'll have to go back to wood or coal heating (or double my power bill by using electric heating).

it's OK El Gatto ...Abbott said he'll bring down the cost of living  ;D ;D ;D

John Smith wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2014 at 6:27pm:

Kat wrote on Apr 23rd, 2014 at 6:25pm: [quote author=perceptions_now link=1377342710/24#24 date=1398239095]Household gas prices to increase by 17.6 per cent in New South Wales The Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) has released a draft decision on regulated gas prices in New South Wales, suggesting an increase of around 17.6 per cent. IPART's draft decision would take effect from the 2014-15 financial year. It means from July 1, typical annual gas bills will rise by between $150 and $225 for households, depending on where people live and how much gas they use. IPART chairman Dr Peter Boxall says the increases are largely due to rising wholesale gas prices. "The ability to export liquid natural gas is driving a structural change in eastern Australia's wholesale gas market, and increasingly domestic gas prices will be influenced by what is happening in world gas markets," he says. [/quote] Well, there goes mine. I'm already struggling with these obscenely high gas/electricity bills, now I'll have no option but to let the gas go altogether. I'll have to go back to wood or coal heating (or double my power bill by using electric heating). it's OK El Gatto ...Abbott said he'll bring down the cost of living  ;D ;D ;D

Don't we all wish...??

The Saudis virtually give their oil/petrol away to their own people, and make their (massive) profit on export sales.

We should be doing the same with our LNG, not using the pain thresh-hold as a pricing point as is currently the case.

If the govt were to do that, then mandate the mass switch to LNG-fuelled vehicles by, say, 2014, watch the cost
of living start to fall and jobs start to appear again. Who knows, it may even have helped to save our car industry.

It would also make it economical to switch from coal-fired to gas-fired power stations and help to substantially lower
electricity prices.

Sadly, because it would result in lower (not no) profits for several current greedy vested-interest groups, it will never
happen.

Nice post OP.

Another thing to understand that adds to how strange the situation really is; is the fact that world governments do not follow either school of economics like they claim.

Obviously governments are not following the Austrian school, that would meaning not printing to infinity, not running up too much debt, letting the market approach equilibrium and root out malinvestment, something they will never do it seems.

What's worse is that John Maynard Keynes was very specific when he advocated deficit spending to stimulate growth out of a recession. He proposed saving a surplus when the economy was strong so that the government could spend in a down turn to make the down turn short and not as damaging. While this is contrary to Hayek and Mises, the important thing to realise is that besides Japan [?] no large economy has saved a surplus in the first place, instead they actually think they can print money and go into debt and spend their way out of a recession.

Attached are the US interest rates kept artificially low since the GFC, the only problem is when it comes around again they can't lower interest rates again meaning AFAIK one of a few scenarios:

- Print money risking massive inflation and economic collapse
- Let the USD collapse for "X" reason
- Let the market root out malinvestment and level out the currency supply in massively painful but necessary depression (bite the bullet before it goes to far they're saying)

If anyone knows what else they propose I'd be interested as those three are all I've heard.

---

Vuk11 wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2014 at 6:54pm:

Nice post OP. Another thing to understand that adds to how strange the situation really is; is the fact that world governments do not follow either school of economics like they claim. Obviously governments are not following the Austrian school, that would meaning not printing to infinity, not running up too much debt, letting the market approach equilibrium and root out malinvestment, something they will never do it seems. What's worse is that John Maynard Keynes was very specific when he advocated deficit spending to stimulate growth out of a recession. He proposed saving a surplus when the economy was strong so that the government could spend in a down turn to make the down turn short and not as damaging. While this is contrary to Hayek and Mises, the important thing to realise is that besides Japan [?] no large economy has saved a surplus in the first place, instead they actually think they can print money and go into debt and spend their way out of a recession. Attached are the US interest rates kept artificially low since the GFC, the only problem is when it comes around again they can't lower interest rates again meaning AFAIK one of a few scenarios: - Print money risking massive inflation and economic collapse - Let the USD collapse for "X" reason - Let the market root out malinvestment and level out the currency supply in massively painful but necessary depression (bite the bullet before it goes to far they're saying) If anyone knows what else they propose I'd be interested as those three are all I've heard.

Absolutely correct!

And, given the length of "normal" Economic cycle, the next "crunch" is due about now!

Kat wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2014 at 6:43pm:

John Smith wrote on Apr 23rd, 2014 at 6:27pm: Kat wrote on Apr 23rd, 2014 at 6:25pm: [quote author=perceptions_now link=1377342710/24#24 date=1398239095]Household gas prices to increase by 17.6 per cent in New South Wales The Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) has released a draft decision on regulated gas prices in New South Wales, suggesting an increase of around 17.6 per cent. IPART's draft decision would take effect from the 2014-15 financial year. It means from July 1, typical annual gas bills will rise by between $150 and $225 for households, depending on where people live and how much gas they use. IPART chairman Dr Peter Boxall says the increases are largely due to rising wholesale gas prices. "The ability to export liquid natural gas is driving a structural change in eastern Australia's wholesale gas market, and increasingly domestic gas prices will be influenced by what is happening in world gas markets," he says. [/quote] Well, there goes mine. I'm already struggling with these obscenely high gas/electricity bills, now I'll have no option but to let the gas go altogether. I'll have to go back to wood or coal heating (or double my power bill by using electric heating). it's OK El Gatto ...Abbott said he'll bring down the cost of living  ;D ;D ;D Don't we all wish...?? The Saudis virtually give their oil/petrol away to their own people, and make their (massive) profit on export sales. We should be doing the same with our LNG, not using the pain thresh-hold as a pricing point as is currently the case. If the govt were to do that, then mandate the mass switch to LNG-fuelled vehicles by, say, 2014, watch the cost of living start to fall and jobs start to appear again. Who knows, it may even have helped to save our car industry. It would also make it economical to switch from coal-fired to gas-fired power stations and help to substantially lower electricity prices. Sadly, because it would result in lower (not no) profits for several current greedy vested-interest groups, it will never happen.

Well, that will have the "free market" types all a jitter?

But eventually, ALL of the natural Resources, WILL BE GONE & we the former owners, we will be left with nothing!

Oh & btw, when I say "eventually", I mean that pretty much most of our natural Resources (particularly Energy) will effectively be gone this century and effectively we will be left with scraps, after about 2050! 

And, in the interim, IF THE STATUS QUO CONTINUES, WE (THE PUBLIC) WILL PAY INCREASING HUGE INCREASES FOR OUR OWN NATURAL ENERGY RESOURCES, SIMPLY AS A SHORT TERM MEASURE TO CONTINUE GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLIES, AT SOMEWHERE NEAR "NORMAL" LEVELS & SO SOMEONE CAN MAKE SOME HUGE SHORT TERM PROFITS!

Supreme Court Calls Lying by Politicians an Expression of Their Religion

In a landmark decision, the Supreme Court of the United States declared on Tuesday that lying by politicians is protected by the First Amendment because it is an expression of their religion.

By a 5–4 majority, the Court struck down an Ohio law that would make it harder to lie in political ads, arguing instead that “any attempt to restrict or punish lying by politicians is an unconstitutional infringement on a religion they have practiced for decades.”

The Court’s decision won praise from politicians of both parties, with many saying that the Justices’ recognition of lying as a religion was “long overdue.”

Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts argued, “For politicians, lying is a religious observance akin to attending a church or a synagogue, except that they do it seven days a week.”

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2014/04/supreme-court-calls-lying-by-politicians-an-expression-of-their-religion.html#entry-more
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As any Politician word say, that is just another example of Political -
Credible
Reliable
Abundant
Paradoxes

However, in my opinion, it's simply more absolute Political CRAP & of course, OZ Politicians are all tarred with the same brush!!!

perceptions_now wrote on Apr 29^th, 2014 at 4:31pm:

We will have to wait, to see what is actually in the Budget? But, IF the Deficit Levy is as suggested, with a 1% starting at $80,000 and then 2% at $180,000, with no other add-ons, THEN LABOR, THE GREENS & THE NEW PUPS SHOULD PASS IT!!! It would also assist, IF A FEW OTHER MEASURES ALSO GOT INCLUDED, such as cutting the PPL, cutting a number of Tax avoidance issues, including cutting the Baby Bonus and also cuts to some of the Expenditure lines, particularly those that are used & abused! Oh & btw, Yes these measures will put a crimp into spending, But that's what is going to happen, in circumstances such as what we now face and no matter what any Politician may say, what we now face are long term issues, which will take decades to go thru the Local & Global Economy!

Some Economic Realities!

Following is a list of countries, by Tax Revenue & Government Expenditure, both as a % of GDP.
These countries are those at the upper end of the Revenue & Expenditure area & I have taken the liberty of deleting some of those "lesser light countries", who may have figured in the report, but are not that significant on a Global scale.
I would suggest there are a few apparent trends and few issues which are relevant to the current OZ Budget discussion/crisis?

Country      Tax burden % GDP      Govt. expend. % GDP
Cuba      24.4      66.7
Libya      1.0      66.6
  Denmark      48.1      57.6
France      44.2      56.1
Finland      43.4      55.1
Belgium      44.0      53.3
Greece      31.2      51.9
Sweden      44.5      51.2
Austria      42.1      50.5
Italy      42.9      49.8
Netherlands      38.7      49.8
Hungary      35.7      49.4
Portugal      31.3      49.4
United Kingdom      35.5      48.5
Ireland      27.6      48.1
New Zealand      31.7      47.5
Germany      37.1      45.4
Spain      31.6      45.2
Iraq      1.9      44.6
Israel      32.6      44.6
Norway      43.2      43.9
Poland      31.7      43.5
Czech Republic      35.3      43.3
Japan      27.6      42.0
Canada      31.0      41.9
United States      25.1      41.6
Argentina      34.6      40.9
Algeria      10.0      40.4
Venezuela      12.5      40.1
Brazil      34.8      39.1
Angola      6.1      38.6
Kuwait      0.8      38.5
Oman      2.2      38.3
Romania      28.0      36.9
Kyrgyzstan      18.5      36.4
Belarus      24.7      36.0
Russia      29.5      35.8
Australia      25.6      35.3
Saudi Arabia      3.7      35.1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending

In addition, the following is a list of countries, showing their National Debt to GDP% in 2011.
Obviously most of these figures will now be "somewhat" higher, as Debt in most countries has continued escalate following on from the GFC.
Again,  I have taken the liberty of deleting some of those "lesser light countries", who may have figured in the report, but are not that significant on a Global scale.

Country               Debt % GDP
1   Japan             229.8
2   Greece               163.3
6   Italy               120.1
8   Portugal       106.8
9   Ireland               105.0
10 United States      102.9
18 France              86.3
19 Canada          85.0
20 United Kingdom  82.5
22 Germany         81.5
39 Spain             68.5
56 Norway           49.6
90 New Zealand   37.0
119 China           25.8
124 Australia      22.9
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/774/economics/list-of-national-debt-by-country/

The above highlight some realities & some Political spin, But only some.

perceptions_now wrote on May 1^st, 2014 at 10:05pm:

Some Economic Realities! Following is a list of countries, by Tax Revenue & Government Expenditure, both as a % of GDP. These countries are those at the upper end of the Revenue & Expenditure area & I have taken the liberty of deleting some of those "lesser light countries", who may have figured in the report, but are not that significant on a Global scale. I would suggest there are a few apparent trends and few issues which are relevant to the current OZ Budget discussion/crisis? Country      Tax burden % GDP      Govt. expend. % GDP Cuba      24.4      66.7 Libya      1.0      66.6   Denmark      48.1      57.6 France      44.2      56.1 Finland      43.4      55.1 Belgium      44.0      53.3 Greece      31.2      51.9 Austria      42.1      50.5 Italy      42.9      49.8 Netherlands      38.7      49.8 Hungary      35.7      49.4 Portugal      31.3      49.4 United Kingdom      35.5      48.5 Ireland      27.6      48.1 New Zealand      31.7      47.5 Germany      37.1      45.4 Spain      31.6      45.2 Israel      32.6      44.6 Norway      43.2      43.9 Poland      31.7      43.5 Czech Republic      35.3      43.3 Japan      27.6      42.0 Canada      31.0      41.9 United States      25.1      41.6 Argentina      34.6      40.9 Venezuela      12.5      40.1 Brazil      34.8      39.1 Kuwait      0.8      38.5 Oman      2.2      38.3 Romania      28.0      36.9 Belarus      24.7      36.0 Russia      29.5      35.8 Australia      25.6      35.3 Saudi Arabia      3.7      35.1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending In addition, the following is a list of countries, showing their National Debt to GDP% in 2011. Obviously most of these figures will now be "somewhat" higher, as Debt in most countries has continued escalate following on from the GFC. Again,  I have taken the liberty of deleting some of those "lesser light countries", who may have figured in the report, but are not that significant on a Global scale. Country               Debt % GDP 1   Japan             229.8 2   Greece               163.3 6   Italy               120.1 8   Portugal       106.8 9   Ireland               105.0 10 United States      102.9 18 France              86.3 19 Canada          85.0 20 United Kingdom  82.5 22 Germany         81.5 39 Spain             68.5 56 Norway           49.6 90 New Zealand   37.0 119 China           25.8 124 Australia      22.9 http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/774/economics/list-of-national-debt-by-country/ The above highlight some realities & some Political spin, But only some.

So, what do the above facts tell us?

Well, they tell us that we actually compare quite favorably now, against our major developed countries.
Our Tax Revenue is actually quite low, as is our Expenditure, as a % GDP and our Debt to GDP% is significantly lower than most similar countries, notwithstanding the fact that the Debt of OZ & most other countries has increases in recent years, which has largely arisen from the effects of the GFC.
   
So, it is actually SPIN of the part of the Liberals, to say that we have a budget emergency now, we certainly don't have much of an emergency yet, certainly not when we compare ourselves against most other countries!

That said, given Global factors, our Economy is bound to head on a downward path, as certain factors become more & more of an influence over the next 10-20 years, so we are most certainly heading towards an impending Economic/Budget emergency!

That said, the major factors that are influencing events already & which are set to make matters worse, have been known or should have been known, by the Political Party's, by Treasury, for some 30-50 years and notwithstanding this obvious knowledge, both of the major OZ Political Party's have not taken anything like what should have been appropriate actions, over the last 30-40 years!

These Political Party's have steadfastly continued to look after their own short term interests & those of their "supporters", BUT they have steadfastly avoided the actions they should have taken for the best, long term interests of all Australians.

Governments, from both Labor & liberal, have not put anywhere near enough away for the inevitable rainy days, which were obviously coming & are now arriving!

Both Liberal & Labor should have kept Taxes higher, particularly when times were good.
Both should have also restrained Expenditures, knowing that times would not always be as good, particularly knowing that the better Economic times were likely between 1980-1995, the best would occur around 1995-2005 and after that, Both the local & Global Economy would deteriorate from 2005 thru to around 2030 or longer. 

So, it is actually SPIN of the part of Labor, to say that we don't have an Economic/Budget emergency brewing, which is about to hit, because Labor don't want to have to admit that neither they (Labor), nor the Liberals did what they should have done, for a very long time & both have been up to their armpits in graft & corruption! 

Now, it won't fix anything immediately, But we need to send an unmistakable message to the Politicians, their "supporters" & to the 10%'ers, that change must come & it must come quickly!

And, the only way to send that message is to sack every incumbent, at every Local, State & Federal election, until real change takes place!

That message must start to go out and you & I, must send that message!     

Australian Federal Budget 2014: Treasurer Joe Hockey declares all Australians must endure hip-pocket pain

ALL Australians must endure hip-pocket pain in the national interest, Treasurer Joe Hockey has declared, as the nation contends with a harsh Budget the Government accepts will be deeply unpopular.

Declaring that “the days of borrow and spend must come to an end”, Treasurer Joe Hockey unveiled a barrage of short-term hits, such as the fuel excise that will add up to 3c a litre, a $7 co-payment for GP visits, a reining in of welfare and the debt tax.

What does the Budget mean to you?
South Australia has already benefited from infrastructure spending with almost $1 billion for the north-south corridor, but is set to miss out on its share of the $5 billion extra cash that is on offer for those states willing to sell their assets.

Mr Hockey has asked Australia to get behind his first Budget, saying his measures would bring down the deficit from $50 billion to about $30 billion next year, and then to a slender deficit of $2.8 million in 2017-18. The year after that, the Budget should be balanced, with a surplus by the end of the decade.

The Government blames the previous Labor Government for its struggle to fix the Budget.

“The challenge is not of our making, but we … accept responsibility to fix it,” Mr Hockey said.

The headline savings measures in the 2014-15 Budget include:
A FUEL excise increase, adding 3c to the price of petrol, with money to go towards infrastructure.

REDUCTIONS in family tax benefits, a push to get people off welfare and into work and indexation freezes for a range of programs, as well as savings from pensioners and the removal of the Seniors Supplement for health card holders.

CUTTING 16,500 public servants and abolishing government bodies and bureaucratic programs for a “smaller, less interfering Government”.

A $7 PAYMENT for a visit to the GP, more expensive medicines and the abolition of Medicare Locals.

A 2 PER CENT tax on people earning more than $180,000 to bring in $3.1 billion.

The spending measures include:
AN $11.6 BILLION infrastructure Growth Package for projects including SA’s north-south corridor.

A $20 BILLION Medical Research Future Fund, which Mr Hockey said would be the world’s biggest within six years. Health savings, including $5 from each $7 GP co-payment, to fund new medical research.

PRIME Minister Tony Abbott’s controversial paid parental leave scheme, capped at $50,000 a year instead of the original $75,000.

$820 MILLION in support for more than 80,000 higher education students, and $524.8 million for the Restart program to encourage employers to hire people aged 50 and older.

http://media.news.com.au/nnd//975203a8c6497117c6854f2b37066065/desktop/assets/01.jpg

It is not yet clear which measures will make it through the new Senate, where the Government will need the support of crossbenchers if Labor opposes any of them.

Mr Hockey emphasised the need for the states to do more of the heavy lifting, and figures show that in a decade, they will effectively strip $20 billion a year out of education and health funding.

The Treasurer did not resile from that shift in focus, telling The Advertiser there was “no free lunch out of Canberra for the states”.

“States run schools, states run hospitals. It’s gotta get fixed,” he said.

The emphasis on states taking responsibility sparked questions about whether that would increase pressure for GST changes, and Mr Hockey said the GST would be considered in the Government’s tax reform White Paper as well as a Federation White Paper.

http://media.news.com.au/nnd//b160cdf619ff9f619e95cc1ec5c45ead/desktop/assets/00.jpg

http://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/australian-federal-budget-2014-treasurer-joe-hockey-declares-all-australians-must-endure-hippocket-pain/story-fnii5yv4-1229616611625
========================================
YES, there is a crisis, But Business is promised a 1.5% tax cut!?

READ MY LIPS -
YES, there is a crisis, BUT the crisis is not now, however it is coming!
YES, there is a crisis, BUT neither Liberal nor Labor are truthfully explaining what the real crisis is, nor when it will come, nor how long it will last! 

My general observations are -
1) This Budget is far from fair, to all sectors!
2) The Budget is unlikely to be accepted & get thru the senate in tact, which means it will fail to achieve a reasonable real Budgetary outcome. And, even if it were to be passed, as is, it would still  not succeed in doing what the Liberals are saying it would.
3) Neither Liberal, nor Labor Political Party's are telling the truth, particularly regarding present & future Economic positions &/or outcomes.
4) Neither Labor, nor Liberal Political Party's will be able to deliver to sort of Economic outcomes, which they "pretend are required & deliverable", because the factors which are setting the local (OZ) Economic agenda are not inherent to Australia, they are actually Global in nature and there is now very little, if anything, which can be done to prevent the OZ Economy from transitioning Southward.
5) The sort of measures, which "could possibly" have at least given us "some buffer" against the current & future Global Economic tide/s, would have had to have been implemented some 30-50 years ago, to build enough backing and neither Labor, nor Liberal had the foresight, nor did either of them put sufficient emphasis on our long term interests, as they were all far too interested in their own short term interests & those of their "supporters"!

In essence, no matter whether Liberal or Labor are in government over the next decade or two, I wish you all the best of luck, because we will all need luck & lots of it!

Politics, Economics & New Realities!

Whilst there is more than the usual amount of comment, on current the current Liberal Budget and the previous 6 years or so of Labor budgets/Deficits, there are some issues that should also be clarified & understood, because they clearly impact on some of what happened over the last Labor period in power & what is happening & will happen, during the current Liberal period in power.

To start with, Australia is not currently in a Financial crisis, although we are heading towards a financial crisis, along with most of the rest of the world, which has already been hit hard by the GFC and hit harder than Australia, so far.

Whilst Australia’s Debt increased during the recent Labor period, the Australian position pre GFC & now, was & is still considerably better than most other countries. Some would argue that the Australian position pre GFC, was due to the good financial management of the Howard /Costello era and I’m sure to some extent that is correct, But something similar could also be argued for the Hawke/Keating era, which brought in quite a few significant Economic changes.
 
However, whilst I’m sure that both Political camps could argue that it was their sides Policy actions which were better & the others were worse, the over-riding reason for the difference between the two outcomes was that the Howard/Costello years happened to also largely coincide with the Peak years of the Baby Boomer Economic Boom, which went from around 1995-2006. 

That said, Global share markets Peaked in October 2007, just before Labor were elected in November 2007, the GFC started impacting markets and the US DOW JONES, for example, bottomed out around February 2009, after dropping nearly 50%, with a 16 month period.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#symbol=^DJI;range=

The DOW has picked up since then, in a much similar fashion, to how it has picked up, after most other marker declines/crashes, certainly those after WW2.    
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html

But, that’s about where standard comparisons cease!

Whilst the US share markets have recovered & past their pre GFC highs, they did so, only due to massive stimulus efforts, both from the US government & the US Federal Reserve, but that has also raised both “official” & unofficial US Debt to levels never seen, except at the heights of the Great Depression.
http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/include/usgs_chart4p02.png

However, for all of the additional US Debt and it is now over 100% of GDP, compared to Australia which is only about 25%, it has not rejuvenated the US Economy. Whilst the US Population has since grown by some 8 million, its Total workforce has since declined by about 500,000. 
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1277536490/1026#1026

Oh & btw, Debt has almost always been a part of the US system!

However, whilst US share markets have bounced back, other markets, such as some in Europe have not, with the French CAC still down some 30%, the Australian All Ords still down some 20%, but none of the top 20 Global Economies have bounced back, in terms of the usual Economic Growth resurgence, as would “normally” be the case in the modern Economic era AND THEY WON’T!

The fact is that Economic Growth trend of the modern Economic era, is now dying and neither Globally, nor from an Australian perspective , can that trend be stopped or prevented, at this late stage of proceedings.

To be Continued.

Politics, Economics & New Realities! (Cont)

So, whilst we (OZ) are not yet in a financial crisis, we are irrevocably heading towards that crisis and there is absolutely nothing that either the Liberals or Labor, can now do, at this late stage, to prevent that from happening, but they can still take actions, to hopefully prevent the worst outcomes from becoming future fact! 

If our Politicians are to have any chance of sustaining a “reasonable existence” in Australia, over the next 20-30 years, whilst the Baby Boomer/ Energy Supply Bust continues to unfold, then they must do something that they are not used to doing. In other words, our Politicians will have to stop thing about their short term interests & those of their “supporters” & they will have to start thinking about the entire Australian Publics long term, best interests!      

To get anywhere near achieving a reasonable set of outcomes for the future of Australia, our Politicians, including Labor, Liberal & the rest must stop playing the usual Political games, which pervade the whole system!      

To get anywhere near achieving a reasonable set of outcomes for the future of Australia, our Politicians will need to start immediately on –
1)      Making the WHOLE Revenue & Expenditure system fair! This means those who can best afford it, will have to pay more & those who are playing the Expenditure system, will miss out!
2)      As part of the process, the ENTIRE SYSTEM MUST BE REVIEWED, not just part of it! This means that everything must be subject to what is in the best interests of the ENTIRE AUSTRALIAN PUBLICS FUTURE, not just what is in the personal short term interests of “some People”! This means that duplications must go, advantages provided that are no longer good value to the future system must go, Loopholes must be eradicated & politicians must be held to account & their unsustainable perks must be .
3)      Btw of clarification, this review & subsequent action, must include the top 10% of income earners, BIG/Global Business & Church businesses! Irrespective of what politicians, on both sides may say, these sectors must pay more and irrespective of what is said, they have paid more before, they will pay more in the future and they must pay more now, so that the system is in balance! A failure to do this, would not just throw too much burden back on those who can not afford it, it would also ensure that Economic Demand dies more than the Baby Boomer/ Energy Supply bust would otherwise have meant & it would mean a catastrophe for both the have’s & the have nots.

Any failure to interact & change the whole system AND make sure that everyone takes their fair share of the load, will ensure that the actions fail! 
In short, there would be NO WINNERS! 

If there are to be any winners, then ALL OF OUR POLITICIANS NEED TO STOP PLAYING GAMES & START FIXING BROKEN POLITICAL & ECONOMICS SYSTEMS, AS THERE ARE NEW REALITIES!

Cheers & good Luck, we will need it!

perceptions_now wrote on May 21^st, 2014 at 10:23pm:

Politics, Economics & New Realities! Whilst there is more than the usual amount of comment, on current the current Liberal Budget and the previous 6 years or so of Labor budgets/Deficits, there are some issues that should also be clarified & understood, because they clearly impact on some of what happened over the last Labor period in power & what is happening & will happen, during the current Liberal period in power. To start with, Australia is not currently in a Financial crisis, although we are heading towards a financial crisis, along with most of the rest of the world, which has already been hit hard by the GFC and hit harder than Australia, so far. Whilst Australia’s Debt increased during the recent Labor period, the Australian position pre GFC & now, was & is still considerably better than most other countries. Some would argue that the Australian position pre GFC, was due to the good financial management of the Howard /Costello era and I’m sure to some extent that is correct, But something similar could also be argued for the Hawke/Keating era, which brought in quite a few significant Economic changes.   However, whilst I’m sure that both Political camps could argue that it was their sides Policy actions which were better & the others were worse, the over-riding reason for the difference between the two outcomes was that the Howard/Costello years happened to also largely coincide with the Peak years of the Baby Boomer Economic Boom, which went from around 1995-2006.  That said, Global share markets Peaked in October 2007, just before Labor were elected in November 2007, the GFC started impacting markets and the US DOW JONES, for example, bottomed out around February 2009, after dropping nearly 50%, with a 16 month period. https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#symbol=^DJI;range= The DOW has picked up since then, in a much similar fashion, to how it has picked up, after most other marker declines/crashes, certainly those after WW2.     http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html But, that’s about where standard comparisons cease! Whilst the US share markets have recovered & past their pre GFC highs, they did so, only due to massive stimulus efforts, both from the US government & the US Federal Reserve, but that has also raised both “official” & unofficial US Debt to levels never seen, except at the heights of the Great Depression. http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/include/usgs_chart4p02.png However, for all of the additional US Debt and it is now over 100% of GDP, compared to Australia which is only about 25%, it has not rejuvenated the US Economy. Whilst the US Population has since grown by some 8 million, its Total workforce has since declined by about 500,000.  http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1277536490/1026#1026 Oh & btw, Debt has almost always been a part of the US system! However, whilst US share markets have bounced back, other markets, such as some in Europe have not, with the French CAC still down some 30%, the Australian All Ords still down some 20%, but none of the top 20 Global Economies have bounced back, in terms of the usual Economic Growth resurgence, as would “normally” be the case in the modern Economic era AND THEY WON’T! The fact is that Economic Growth trend of the modern Economic era, is now dying and neither Globally, nor from an Australian perspective , can that trend be stopped or prevented, at this late stage of proceedings. To be Continued.

 

So your suggesting abbott and hockey has been wrong on all fronts with the hated budget ????? Mr perceptions

stryder wrote on May 21^st, 2014 at 10:28pm:

perceptions_now wrote on May 21st, 2014 at 10:23pm: Politics, Economics & New Realities! Whilst there is more than the usual amount of comment, on current the current Liberal Budget and the previous 6 years or so of Labor budgets/Deficits, there are some issues that should also be clarified & understood, because they clearly impact on some of what happened over the last Labor period in power & what is happening & will happen, during the current Liberal period in power. To start with, Australia is not currently in a Financial crisis, although we are heading towards a financial crisis, along with most of the rest of the world, which has already been hit hard by the GFC and hit harder than Australia, so far. Whilst Australia’s Debt increased during the recent Labor period, the Australian position pre GFC & now, was & is still considerably better than most other countries. Some would argue that the Australian position pre GFC, was due to the good financial management of the Howard /Costello era and I’m sure to some extent that is correct, But something similar could also be argued for the Hawke/Keating era, which brought in quite a few significant Economic changes.   However, whilst I’m sure that both Political camps could argue that it was their sides Policy actions which were better & the others were worse, the over-riding reason for the difference between the two outcomes was that the Howard/Costello years happened to also largely coincide with the Peak years of the Baby Boomer Economic Boom, which went from around 1995-2006.  That said, Global share markets Peaked in October 2007, just before Labor were elected in November 2007, the GFC started impacting markets and the US DOW JONES, for example, bottomed out around February 2009, after dropping nearly 50%, with a 16 month period. https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#symbol=^DJI;range= The DOW has picked up since then, in a much similar fashion, to how it has picked up, after most other marker declines/crashes, certainly those after WW2.     http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html But, that’s about where standard comparisons cease! Whilst the US share markets have recovered & past their pre GFC highs, they did so, only due to massive stimulus efforts, both from the US government & the US Federal Reserve, but that has also raised both “official” & unofficial US Debt to levels never seen, except at the heights of the Great Depression. http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/include/usgs_chart4p02.png However, for all of the additional US Debt and it is now over 100% of GDP, compared to Australia which is only about 25%, it has not rejuvenated the US Economy. Whilst the US Population has since grown by some 8 million, its Total workforce has since declined by about 500,000.  http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1277536490/1026#1026 Oh & btw, Debt has almost always been a part of the US system! However, whilst US share markets have bounced back, other markets, such as some in Europe have not, with the French CAC still down some 30%, the Australian All Ords still down some 20%, but none of the top 20 Global Economies have bounced back, in terms of the usual Economic Growth resurgence, as would “normally” be the case in the modern Economic era AND THEY WON’T! The fact is that Economic Growth trend of the modern Economic era, is now dying and neither Globally, nor from an Australian perspective , can that trend be stopped or prevented, at this late stage of proceedings. To be Continued.   So your suggesting abbott and hockey has been wrong on all fronts with the hated budget ????? Mr perceptions

No, what I am actually saying is that -
1) More, should have been done before!
2) More, much more needs to be done now, BUT it must be fair & equitable or it will simply force the system to collapse more & do so, quicker!
And, that will apply to both Labor & Liberal!

As it stands now, the Global system will fall into a massive hole over the next few years (again) and IF we have any chance over coming out the other end, in anywhere near reasonable shape, then everyone must bear their fair share of the load.

That is not happening with the current Liberal Budget & unless there is a massive turnaround in Labor, it won't happen there, either.

So, it would appear likely that Australia is going to get hit & get hit hard, along with the rest of the world.

Both Labor & Liberal & their "supporters" are either going to have to realize "its not all about them" and realize it quickly or we will be as badly hit as the rest of the world is going to be hit, in the period ahead!   

perceptions_now wrote on May 21^st, 2014 at 10:45pm:

stryder wrote on May 21st, 2014 at 10:28pm: perceptions_now wrote on May 21st, 2014 at 10:23pm: Politics, Economics & New Realities! Whilst there is more than the usual amount of comment, on current the current Liberal Budget and the previous 6 years or so of Labor budgets/Deficits, there are some issues that should also be clarified & understood, because they clearly impact on some of what happened over the last Labor period in power & what is happening & will happen, during the current Liberal period in power. To start with, Australia is not currently in a Financial crisis, although we are heading towards a financial crisis, along with most of the rest of the world, which has already been hit hard by the GFC and hit harder than Australia, so far. Whilst Australia’s Debt increased during the recent Labor period, the Australian position pre GFC & now, was & is still considerably better than most other countries. Some would argue that the Australian position pre GFC, was due to the good financial management of the Howard /Costello era and I’m sure to some extent that is correct, But something similar could also be argued for the Hawke/Keating era, which brought in quite a few significant Economic changes.   However, whilst I’m sure that both Political camps could argue that it was their sides Policy actions which were better & the others were worse, the over-riding reason for the difference between the two outcomes was that the Howard/Costello years happened to also largely coincide with the Peak years of the Baby Boomer Economic Boom, which went from around 1995-2006.  That said, Global share markets Peaked in October 2007, just before Labor were elected in November 2007, the GFC started impacting markets and the US DOW JONES, for example, bottomed out around February 2009, after dropping nearly 50%, with a 16 month period. https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#symbol=^DJI;range= The DOW has picked up since then, in a much similar fashion, to how it has picked up, after most other marker declines/crashes, certainly those after WW2.     http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html But, that’s about where standard comparisons cease! Whilst the US share markets have recovered & past their pre GFC highs, they did so, only due to massive stimulus efforts, both from the US government & the US Federal Reserve, but that has also raised both “official” & unofficial US Debt to levels never seen, except at the heights of the Great Depression. http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/include/usgs_chart4p02.png However, for all of the additional US Debt and it is now over 100% of GDP, compared to Australia which is only about 25%, it has not rejuvenated the US Economy. Whilst the US Population has since grown by some 8 million, its Total workforce has since declined by about 500,000.  http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1277536490/1026#1026 Oh & btw, Debt has almost always been a part of the US system! However, whilst US share markets have bounced back, other markets, such as some in Europe have not, with the French CAC still down some 30%, the Australian All Ords still down some 20%, but none of the top 20 Global Economies have bounced back, in terms of the usual Economic Growth resurgence, as would “normally” be the case in the modern Economic era AND THEY WON’T! The fact is that Economic Growth trend of the modern Economic era, is now dying and neither Globally, nor from an Australian perspective , can that trend be stopped or prevented, at this late stage of proceedings. To be Continued.   So your suggesting abbott and hockey has been wrong on all fronts with the hated budget ????? Mr perceptions No, what I am actually saying is that - 1) More, should have been done before! 2) More, much more needs to be done now, BUT it must be fair & equitable or it will simply force the system to collapse more & do so, quicker! And, that will apply to both Labor & Liberal! As it stands now, the Global system will fall into a massive hole over the next few years (again) and IF we have any chance over coming out the other end, in anywhere near reasonable shape, then everyone must bear their fair share of the load. That is not happening with the current Liberal Budget & unless there is a massive turnaround in Labor, it won't happen there, either. So, it would appear likely that Australia is going to get hit & get hit hard, along with the rest of the world. Both Labor & Liberal & their "supporters" are either going to have to realize "its not all about them" and realize it quickly or we will be as badly hit as the rest of the world is going to be hit, in the period ahead!

If you have noticed the negative reaction to this so called tough budget, anymore than that would produce anarchy  now i believe it didnt go far enough in terms of cutting to spending, in fact it was redistribution of spending and some trimming to many government departments to programs, but just the small cuts themselves and extra taxes that was pledged not to come in has put abbott in a bit of a hole at the moment but i believe his policy is right on reform of the entitlement culture

stryder wrote on May 21^st, 2014 at 11:30pm:

If you have noticed the negative reaction to this so called tough budget, anymore than that would produce anarchy  now i believe it didnt go far enough in terms of cutting to spending, in fact it was redistribution of spending and some trimming to many government departments to programs, but just the small cuts themselves and extra taxes that was pledged not to come in has put abbott in a bit of a hole at the moment but i believe his policy is right on reform of the entitlement culture

Unfortunately Stryder, you are doing what many Liberal/Labor supporters do, you are only looking at issues from the one perspective, which is from the perspective of the Political Party you support.

That mono perspective is part of the problem and it will certainly make finding solutions much more difficult, for what are actually a once in history set of problems!

For the record, I repeat again, this is not a matter of Labor is right and Liberal are wrong, in fact both are at fault.

We need a total review, but fair, with all sectors bearing their fair share of the load. That is not happening at present, it didn't happen under Labor past and I strongly suspect it won't happen under Labor future!

philperth2010 wrote on May 21^st, 2014 at 8:02pm:

Quote: Tax breaks on superannuation, capital gains to cost $300b Tax breaks on capital gains and superannuation could cost almost $300 billion over the next three years, budget figures show, renewing calls for the Abbott government to scale back concessions. Economists said exemptions on fresh food, education, health and ­financial supplies from the goods and services tax – estimated to cost almost $78 billion over the period – also need to end. Updated forecasts from Treasury in the federal budget papers show the capital gains tax exemption on the family home, the 50 per cent CGT discount and superannuation concessions remain the biggest costs to the budget.The figures are an update on Treasury’s tax expenditure statement released earlier this year. It had forecast out to 2017-16, whereas the budget papers forecast further out to 2017-18. Since most household saving is concentrated in property and superannuation, the cost to federal revenue could grow as a percentage of GDP if no action is taken to tackle the budget sacred cows. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch chief economist Saul Eslake said CGT and super tax breaks should be scaled back, but not totally eliminated. Deloitte Access Economics partner Chris Richardson said the Commission of Audit had already suggested including the family home in the pensions assets test. “Treasury has considered the potential for something similar around CGT,” he said. Many people on these boards have already stated how the budget could be fixed with more equitable measures taken instead of taxing the poor and changing our society for the worst.....Why are both major parties ignoring these sacred cows??? :-? :-? :-? http://www.afr.com/p/national/tax_breaks_on_superannuation_capital_fivqxKm050y3iAKE0WppcI

There are many areas where proper Revenue is forgone & many areas where improper Expenditure is allowed to continue, all of these need to be reviewed and many need to go, not matter whom they may affect, in the NEW Realities, which we now face!

I re-post the follow here, from the Finance and Economics section, as it is relevant.

Coming Economic Depression

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYW5OGWfqJc
Whilst there are possible (even likely) reasons, other than communicating current & upcoming Economic difficulties, on the mind of the author behind this video, it is also probable (even likely) that much of what is said, is also true.

http://cdn.moneymorning.com/files/2014/09/great_depression.jpg
Money velocity is certainly continuing to slow & that will prove to be a great difficulty, as Demand continues to Decline!

http://cdn.moneymorning.com/files/2014/09/federal_debt_hit_catastrophic_state.jpg
Certainly, US Debt & Unfunded Liabilities are well beyond "normal" and probably beyond control!

http://cdn.moneymorning.com/files/2014/09/central_banks_need_capital.jpg
The US RedRes is certainly playing games & it is very likely that outcomes may well be beyond their control!

http://cdn.moneymorning.com/files/2014/09/2014_stock_prophecy.jpg
The US Share market is certainly well beyond realistic values & the DOW is likely to Decline & Decline sharply, by at least 50% or more, in the not too distant future!

http://cdn.moneymorning.com/files/2014/09/treasury_market_about_to_collapse.jpg
http://cdn.moneymorning.com/files/2014/09/belgium_buying_treasuries.jpg
Support for US Debt & the US$ is fraying & at some point that support will collapse. It is also likely that some of the current "support" has been "artificially arranged", by the FedRes!

http://cdn.moneymorning.com/files/2014/09/petrodollar_deal.jpg
http://cdn.moneymorning.com/files/2014/09/petrodollar_being_decimated.jpg
As for the US$, it has certainly been "artificially propped up" recently & it will go back to its slide before much longer, probably with a little "aid", it will collapse & probably in the not too distant future!
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:KhBl4fAXkcgJ:moneymorning.com/jim-rickards-coming-great-depression/+&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=nz

What the video didn't raise were the basic macro causes, which are -
1) Demographics
2) Energy - Supply shortages & Price Increases
3) Climate Change
=========================================================

Why is it relevant?

Well, because Politicians, herein OZ, in the US, in Europe & many other countries, both from the Right & Left of politics, from BIG Business, from Unions & from TPTB, have all had the opportunity to prevent this from happening & regrettably over the last 40-50 years, they have all become part of the problem, rather than being part of a solution.

And, the cumulative effect, is that they have ruined it, for us, for future generations & for themselves!

So, well done, NOT!
They knew or should have known & we, well we were all interested only in ME and we did not stand up for US!

Well, in the final wash up, WE may get the ME that we deserve, which means all of US will miss out!?   

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant.


perceptions_now wrote on Sep 10^th, 2014 at 11:40am:

Iron ore slide helps focus minds http://images.smh.com.au/2014/09/05/5738054/Article%20Lead%20-%20narrow6106365310d8od1409923215755.jpg-300x0.jpg The drop in the price of iron ore has helped focus minds on Australia's economic prospects this week, along with a raft of other data and indicators. The price of iron ore, used to make steel, bounced around new five-year lows throughout the week before settling on Friday at $US84.30 ($90.21), its lowest point since September 25, 2009. The mineral, by far Australia's most important export, currently sits at just above half its all-time high – about $US190 – which it reached in 2011. The fall stemmed partly from growing supply and slower economic growth in China. Australia's economic fortunes during the global financial crisis and the subsequent fallout have been largely tied to the mineral, which accounts for more than $1 in every $5 of Australia's export income. Demand for coking coal that is used to fire the steel mills and the thermal coal burnt to make electricity also played to Australia's advantage as a large-scale exporter of the dark combustible. Like all booms, however, the mining infrastructure bonanza had to end. http://www.smh.com.au/business/iron-ore-slide-helps-focus-minds-20140905-10ct0l.html ===================================================== Iron ore price at new five-year low The price of iron ore has again failed to find support in overnight trade, slipping further away from the $US85 a tonne mark. Benchmark iron ore for immediate delivery to the port of Tianjin in China is currently trading at $US83.20 a tonne, down half a per cent from its $US83.60 closing mark in the previous session. Analysts have largely been revising their forecasts lower in recent months, though Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans yesterday bucked the trend by issuing a forecast for prices to rebound above $US100 a tonne next year. Mr Evans also tipped a “probable jump above $US120 a tonne in 2016, according to The Australian. A more downbeat assessment has been offered by Alberto Calderon, however, with the former senior BHP executive suggesting the price has further to fall. “On one side, we will see almost no growth in Chinese demand for iron ore, even if there is some growth in steel,’’ Mr ­Calderon said. “On the other side, we are seeing a wall of iron ore supply being dropped in to the market by the large mining companies. It is not difficult to see why iron ore prices have collapsed and why they will go even lower.’’ Mr Calderon suggested prices in the $US70s could be seen for the next couple of years. http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/breaking-news/iron-ore-price-at-new-five-year-low/story-fnn9c0gx-1227053318529?nk=fb544c3f78ac28c51d2e7cc23a65f09c ===================================================== A few observations - 1) Never believe what Politicians or Economists say, they only say what THEY want you to believe, not what are likely realities! 2) Given the  main "known" Global factors that are currently influencing events & will be for quite some time (Demographics most of all), it is very unlikely that Demand for iron ore will do anything, other than go lower, which mean the Price of Iron ore will also continue to head lower! 3) Therefore, the suggestions of Politician (such of Colin Barnett - WA Premier) &  economist (Bill Evans -  Westpac’s chief economist), that iron ore Prices will rise again, ARE NOT BELIEVABLE! 4) Consider the likely outcomes, when CHINA (our major Economic supporter in recent times) ALREADY HAS ENTIRE CITIES WHICH HAVE BEEN BUILT, BUT ARE TOTALLY UNOCCUPIED! I would suggest that most newer Australian mines will absolutely be in loss situations very soon, if not already & many will begin shedding their workforce first, then closing down completely and the older ones will also be substantially affected over the next few years! Those who are shareholders may find this unpalatable, But it is the likely Reality!

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant!


perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22^nd, 2015 at 6:41pm:

It has been said - "For all Actions & In-Actions, there are Consequences". Well, Well, Well, what about Oil then? Date                  US Regular Gas Prices      Wti Oil Price                  (per Gallon)                  (per Barrel) 28/12/1998            $0.914                  $11.31 27/12/1999            $1.263                  $26.02 25/12/2000            $1.388                  $28.40 31/12/2001            $1.096                  $19.31 30/12/2002            $1.417                  $29.44 29/12/2003            $1.454                  $32.12 27/12/2004            $1.754                  $43.23 26/12/2005            $2.188                  $59.41 25/12/2006            $2.303                  $59.25 (?) 31/12/2007            $3.028                  $91.36 Peak Oil Price, during July,2008           $147.00 28/07/2008            $3.896                  $133.38 29/12/2008            $1.590                  $41.44 23/02/2009            $1.868                  $39.15 28/12/2009            $2.564                  $74.49 27/12/2010            $3.015                  $89.22 26/12/2011            $3.213                  $98.61 31/12/2012            $3.245                  $88.19 30/12/2013            $3.264                  $97.90 29/12/2014            $2.229                  $59.10 23/02/2015            $2.256                  $50.72          30/03/2015            $2.348                  $47.78 US Regular Gas Prices http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMRU_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W Wti Oil Prices http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-west-texas-intermediate&months=300 Meanwhile in OZ, Petrol  Pricing was - Peaked in July 2008 @ $1.67 per Litre 23/02/2015                  $1.24             30/03/2015                  $1.34             http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/retail/ulp/index.htm       By way of observation - In the USA, there is a 40% Decline in the Gasoline Price, between July 2008 & March 30 2015. In OZ, there is a 20% Decline in the Gasoline Price, between July 2008 & March 30 2015. The question is WHY, such a significant difference & the answer may surprise some? Remember, "For all Actions & In-Actions, there are Consequences".

perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22^nd, 2015 at 7:45pm:

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant! perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22nd, 2015 at 6:41pm: It has been said - "For all Actions & In-Actions, there are Consequences". Well, Well, Well, what about Oil then? Date                  US Regular Gas Prices      Wti Oil Price                  (per Gallon)                  (per Barrel) 28/12/1998            $0.914                  $11.31 27/12/1999            $1.263                  $26.02 25/12/2000            $1.388                  $28.40 31/12/2001            $1.096                  $19.31 30/12/2002            $1.417                  $29.44 29/12/2003            $1.454                  $32.12 27/12/2004            $1.754                  $43.23 26/12/2005            $2.188                  $59.41 25/12/2006            $2.303                  $59.25 (?) 31/12/2007            $3.028                  $91.36 Peak Oil Price, during July,2008           $147.00 28/07/2008            $3.896                  $133.38 29/12/2008            $1.590                  $41.44 23/02/2009            $1.868                  $39.15 28/12/2009            $2.564                  $74.49 27/12/2010            $3.015                  $89.22 26/12/2011            $3.213                  $98.61 31/12/2012            $3.245                  $88.19 30/12/2013            $3.264                  $97.90 29/12/2014            $2.229                  $59.10 23/02/2015            $2.256                  $50.72          30/03/2015            $2.348                  $47.78 US Regular Gas Prices http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMRU_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W Wti Oil Prices http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-west-texas-intermediate&months=300 Meanwhile in OZ, Petrol  Pricing was - Peaked in July 2008 @ $1.67 per Litre 23/02/2015                  $1.24             30/03/2015                  $1.34             http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/retail/ulp/index.htm       By way of observation - In the USA, there is a 40% Decline in the Gasoline Price, between July 2008 & March 30 2015. In OZ, there is a 20% Decline in the Gasoline Price, between July 2008 & March 30 2015. The question is WHY, such a significant difference & the answer may surprise some? Remember, "For all Actions & In-Actions, there are Consequences".

Interesting hey?
It is said, "Money makes the world go round"?

I repost the following here, as it is relevant.


perceptions_now wrote on Jun 16^th, 2015 at 2:40pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22nd, 2015 at 6:41pm: It has been said - "For all Actions & In-Actions, there are Consequences". Well, Well, Well, what about Oil then? Date                  US Regular Gas Prices      Wti Oil Price                  (per Gallon)                  (per Barrel) 28/12/1998            $0.914                  $11.31 27/12/1999            $1.263                  $26.02 25/12/2000            $1.388                  $28.40 31/12/2001            $1.096                  $19.31 30/12/2002            $1.417                  $29.44 29/12/2003            $1.454                  $32.12 27/12/2004            $1.754                  $43.23 26/12/2005            $2.188                  $59.41 25/12/2006            $2.303                  $59.25 (?) 31/12/2007            $3.028                  $91.36 Peak Oil Price, during July,2008           $147.00 28/07/2008            $3.896                  $133.38 29/12/2008            $1.590                  $41.44 23/02/2009            $1.868                  $39.15 28/12/2009            $2.564                  $74.49 27/12/2010            $3.015                  $89.22 26/12/2011            $3.213                  $98.61 31/12/2012            $3.245                  $88.19 30/12/2013            $3.264                  $97.90 29/12/2014            $2.229                  $59.10 23/02/2015            $2.256                  $50.72          30/03/2015            $2.348                  $47.78 US Regular Gas Prices http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMRU_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W Wti Oil Prices http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-west-texas-intermediate&months=300 Meanwhile in OZ, Petrol  Pricing was - Peaked in July 2008 @ $1.67 per Litre 23/02/2015                  $1.24             30/03/2015                  $1.34             http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/retail/ulp/index.htm       By way of observation - In the USA, there is a 40% Decline in the Gasoline Price, between July 2008 & March 30 2015. In OZ, there is a 20% Decline in the Gasoline Price, between July 2008 & March 30 2015. The question is WHY, such a significant difference & the answer may surprise some? Remember, "For all Actions & In-Actions, there are Consequences". Higher petrol prices on the way Sorry, drivers. It looks like that brief, beautiful moment of cheap petrol you've probably just got used to is coming to an end. A report from market researcher CommSec shows petrol is set for its biggest quarterly price jump in nearly 25 years. The average price of a litre of petrol in the week to June 14 was $1.42, compared with less than $1.10 at the start of the year. "Petrol is the single biggest weekly purchase for most families." So far in the three months that will end June 30, CommSec estimates the price of petrol has increased 13.1 per cent. If this continues to the end of the month, it will be the biggest quarterly increase since December 1990. The price of oil around the world plummeted in 2014. Increased production from the US prompted a price war with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and motorists around the world benefited as lower prices reached the bowser. But since February, prices have begun to rebound. While petrol is still cheaper than it was a year ago, the price has increased by about 30 per cent. The price of oil around the world plummeted in 2014. Increased production from the US prompted a price war with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and motorists around the world benefited as lower prices reached the bowser. Mr James said higher petrol prices and a weaker Australian dollar were likely to make people more reticent about spending. This could affect the economy more broadly, and could even influence the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider cutting interest rates. http://www.smh.com.au/business/higher-petrol-prices-on-the-way-20150616-ghow8o ============================================= As previously stated, when Oil hit $147 a barrel in 2008, Perth Unleaded Petrol hit a high $1.60 a litre. In the early part of this year, Oil hit lows of around $44 and ULP in Perth hit around $1.05. Since then, ULP was often around $1.30 a little, as the Oil Price rose again and since early May, Oil has platued at around $60.00. In Perth yesterday, many stations had ULP at around $150.00 and the suggestion is that prices will rise further. So, the Price of a Barrel of Oil is still some 60% lower than 2008, But the Price of ULP is only some 7.5% lower and it is heading higher, SUPPOSEDLY! And, inflation has been low. The questions that beg to be answered, is - 1) WHY???? 2) WHY ARE NEITHER LIBERAL NOR LABOR SCREAMED THE PLACE DOWN, TO GET TO THE BOTTOM OF WHY THIS MASSIVE THEFT IS BEING PERPETRATED ON THE PUBLIC????

I repost the following 2 posts here, as the issues involved in the theft on the OZ Public, via Petrol Pricing, directly relates to the Corruption of the Political System!


perceptions_now wrote on Jun 17^th, 2015 at 4:59pm:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jun 17th, 2015 at 2:01pm: There is no massive theft. In fact forecourt prices on the whole have remained relatively in sync with cost fluctuation for the last decade. The forecourt franchisee often has a band fluctuation built into his contract of tenure but often will stick rigidly to the recommended sale price so rarely are you being price gouged by franchise operators. Really Andrei??? In July 2008, we hit highs, where - 1) Oil hit US$147 a Barrel or AU$153 @ 95.00 conversion rate. 2) The standard ULP Price in Perth hit $1.60 As of the beginning of January 2015 - 1) The Price  of a Barrel of Oil was US$47.93 or AU$58.66 (62% lower) @ 81.71 conversion rate). 2) The standard ULP Price in Perth was around $119.00 (26% lower) . As of Today June 17, 2015 - 1) The Price  of a Barrel of Oil is US$60.55 or AU$78.40 (13.36% higher) @ 77.23 conversion rate). 2) The standard ULP Price in Perth is around $1.48 (24% higher). So, how do you figure there is no theft?

I repost the following here, as it is relevant!


perceptions_now wrote on Jun 26^th, 2015 at 1:37pm:

A couple of things, to keep in mind regarding Credit Card rates - 1) People "sometimes" have choices, when it comes to adjusting their financial actions, But "sometimes" they do not. 2) The RBA Cash rate actually Peaked in early 1990 at around 17% & it is now 2%. http://www.smh.com.au/business/chronology-of-interest-rate-moves-since-1990-20130903-pfg8.html http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/6510934-4x3-340x255.jpg Whilst the Credit Card Rates Peaked a little later, then Declined to around 14% in 1994, before rising again to around 20% in 2008. However, from around 2008 the usual correlation between RBA & Card rates has ceased! After 2008 - The RBA Cash rate Peaked around 7.25% in early 2008, the rate briefly dipped to 3% in early 2009, before rising again to 4.75% in late 2010, then finally Declining again, to now be at 2%. BUT, Credit Card rates Peaked around 20% in 2008, the rate the rate briefly dipped to 17% in 2009, before rising again to 2% in 2010, which is pretty much where it has been since then! So, SINCE 2008, THERE HAS BEEN A COMPLETE DISCONNECT, WITH THE REGULATORY AGENCIES, ALL POLITICIANS & THE BANKS, SAYING VERY LITTLE ON THE FACT THAT CREDIT CARD RATES HAVE BEEN ROBBING THE PUBLIC BLIND, OVER AT LEAST THE LAST 7 YEARS!!!

You can only say they are "robbing the public blind" if they are taking peoples' money by force.
I don't see any force being used here. There's no Al Capone coming round and bashing people up.

It's a free choice. Don't have a credit card or, better still, pay the balance off (ie what you've spent of other peoples' money) before the due date and you won't have to pay interest.

bogarde73 wrote on Jun 26^th, 2015 at 2:37pm:

You can only say they are "robbing the public blind" if they are taking peoples' money by force. I don't see any force being used here. There's no Al Capone coming round and bashing people up. It's a free choice. Don't have a credit card or, better still, pay the balance off (ie what you've spent of other peoples' money) before the due date and you won't have to pay interest.

As I have already stated, "some" people can take actions to avoid paying these charges, BUT "some can not!

In any event, there are a great number who have not taken action & there are a great number who are not aware that the Banks, with "covert" assistance from the Politicians, have set up the system, TO ROB THEM BLIND!

And Yes, the Banks, the Politicians & the system, ARE ROBBING THEM BLIND, AS MANY WERE/ARE BLIND TO THE FACTS, AS THE FACTS HAVE BEEN "CONVENIENTLY AVOIDED, BY ALL IN THE SYSTEM"!!!

rob blind
rob someone blind
1. Fig. to steal freely from someone. Her maid was robbing her blind. I don't want them to rob me blind. Keep an eye on them.
2. Fig. to overcharge someone.

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 10:53am:

Well, it seems that the "raw nerves" & "Real Realities" are now beginning to show! The DOW went Down again overnight, this time by 531 points (3.13%) , to finish @ 16,460. And, much of Europe went down around 3%. http://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices The VIX Volatility index has risen substantially over recent days, with a nearly 50% increase yesterday alone & it now stands @ 28. http://www.investing.com/indices/volatility-s-p-500 OZ was also down again yesterday, by 71 points & now stands @ 5,225. http://www.tradingroom.com.au/apps/index.ac Given the results overnight, further substantial falls are likely in OZ next week, particularly on Monday & particularly if the DOW Futures shows up further falls on Monday! The Timing of crashes is always "somewhat difficult", But it would appear the "end game scenario" is now certainly sooner, rather than later!

And all that most of our Pollies are doing is trying to look after their own "personal short Term interests"!

A Pox on both their Houses!

 

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 17^th, 2015 at 6:52pm:

So, the Price of a Barrel of Oil is still some 60% lower than 2008, But the Price of ULP is only some 7.5% lower and it is heading higher, SUPPOSEDLY! And, inflation has been low. The questions that beg to be answered, is - 1) WHY????

.......demand in-elasticity of oil   

Swagman wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 11:27am:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 17th, 2015 at 6:52pm: So, the Price of a Barrel of Oil is still some 60% lower than 2008, But the Price of ULP is only some 7.5% lower and it is heading higher, SUPPOSEDLY! And, inflation has been low. The questions that beg to be answered, is - 1) WHY???? .......demand in-elasticity of oil

Ho! Ho! Ho!
That is funny?

The question was, given that the Oil Price has come down so much, WHY hasn't the Petrol Price!
And, why do we hear NOTHING FROM OUR POLLIES?

Two part answer:
1 petrol refining is a cartel
2 Woolworths & Coles

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 12:34pm:

Swagman wrote on Aug 22nd, 2015 at 11:27am: perceptions_now wrote on Jun 17th, 2015 at 6:52pm: So, the Price of a Barrel of Oil is still some 60% lower than 2008, But the Price of ULP is only some 7.5% lower and it is heading higher, SUPPOSEDLY! And, inflation has been low. The questions that beg to be answered, is - 1) WHY???? .......demand in-elasticity of oil    Ho! Ho! Ho! That is funny? The question was, given that the Oil Price has come down so much, WHY hasn't the Petrol Price! And, why do we hear NOTHING FROM OUR POLLIES?

It's not that funny. Swaggie is right. As long as demand is outstripping supply the price will not be elastic. This is regardless of the cost of production. I'm not saying it's good or bad, just telling you how it is.

The funniest thing about this thread is that the OP is 2 years old and all the dire predictions have failed. It is a bit like the annual prediction of a recession in Australia for I think the 8th straight year now. After a while you just nod and smile while inwardly laughing.

crocodile wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 1:59pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 22nd, 2015 at 12:34pm: Swagman wrote on Aug 22nd, 2015 at 11:27am: perceptions_now wrote on Jun 17th, 2015 at 6:52pm: So, the Price of a Barrel of Oil is still some 60% lower than 2008, But the Price of ULP is only some 7.5% lower and it is heading higher, SUPPOSEDLY! And, inflation has been low. The questions that beg to be answered, is - 1) WHY???? .......demand in-elasticity of oil    Ho! Ho! Ho! That is funny? The question was, given that the Oil Price has come down so much, WHY hasn't the Petrol Price! And, why do we hear NOTHING FROM OUR POLLIES? It's not that funny. Swaggie is right. As long as demand is outstripping supply the price will not be elastic. This is regardless of the cost of production. I'm not saying it's good or bad, just telling you how it is.

But, Demand is NOT outstripping Supply!
In fact, Demand Growth is slowing, whilst Supply MAY have actually picked up slightly, over the last couple of years, due mainly to new production methods, such as Fracking, although recently that production has started to fall away due to lower Demand/lower Prices!
The fact is Demand, which has been THE Growth Driver, is now in a Decline phase, owing mainly to Demographics and at some point Demand for Oil/Pterol & most other Products will actually go into Real Decline!
The fact is, Demand & Economic Growth in general, is now is now slowing & will actually Decline, as time rolls on.
So, all the talk by our "friendly Pollies" about Economic & Jobs Growth, IS SIMPLY BS, no matter which party they come from!!!

mariacostel wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 6:50pm:

The funniest thing about this thread is that the OP is 2 years old and all the dire predictions have failed. It is a bit like the annual prediction of a recession in Australia for I think the 8th straight year now. After a while you just nod and smile while inwardly laughing.

I re-post the following, as it is relevant -

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 7:50pm:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Aug 22nd, 2015 at 2:28pm: Remember when we said When America sneezes everyone gets flu? It looks like the same goes for China. The heat is on. Will there be a miraculous recovery or will the dominoes keep tumbling? All will be revealed in a short time. The beginning of the end of unfettered capitalism. There should have been boundaries. Yes, it seems we are now in the final phase, so the "end game scenario's" are likely sooner, rather than later! Whilst timing for this sort of event, is extremely difficult, as there are a myriad of players & a myriad of possible inputs, the final "end game scenario's" have been pretty much set in concrete for  quite some time, just awaiting the final show to start up, which I think is now underway. So, I think it is likely that the main show will commence before the end of this year or the end of next year, at the latest!  But, of one thing I am certain, the "end game" has commenced!

mariacostel wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 6:50pm:

The funniest thing about this thread is that the OP is 2 years old and all the dire predictions have failed. It is a bit like the annual prediction of a recession in Australia for I think the 8th straight year now. After a while you just nod and smile while inwardly laughing.

Give it time - Australia has been in recession for over twenty years now and like misogyny, the definition has simply been changed to suit the requirement that nobody know it.

One in twelve or even more Australians vying for work are not in full-time work - which is the only thing that can possibly keep their heads above water and provide them with a viable future.

That has been the reality for years now - and none dare call it Depression.  We simply apply longyathematics, and an actual decline in jobs is a vast increase under LNP but a huge downward turn under Labor, and escalating costs of living while more are poorer is a sign of a positive and balanced economy.

Grappler Deep State Feller wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 11:27pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 22nd, 2015 at 6:50pm: The funniest thing about this thread is that the OP is 2 years old and all the dire predictions have failed. It is a bit like the annual prediction of a recession in Australia for I think the 8th straight year now. After a while you just nod and smile while inwardly laughing. Give it time - Australia has been in recession for over twenty years now and like misogyny, the definition has simply been changed to suit the requirement that nobody know it. One in twelve or even more Australians vying for work are not in full-time work - which is the only thing that can possibly keep their heads above water and provide them with a viable future. That has been the reality for years now - and none dare call it Depression.  We simply apply longyathematics, and an actual decline in jobs is a vast increase under LNP but a huge downward turn under Labor, and escalating costs of living while more are poorer is a sign of a positive and balanced economy.

A) Australia has NOT been in recession at all since 1990 and the definition has not changed for many many decades
B) The numbers of jobs has risen, not dropped
C) the unemployment rate is one in 16 not one in 12.
D) there are less poor now than 20 years ago.

In short, you pretty much got every single statement dead wrong. Why do you do this? They aren't even difficult questions and you still get them wrong!

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant!


perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:44pm:

Well, All Ords finished day down 211 @ 5,014. https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord Shanghai was also down about 9%, but is now down just over 8%. http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite The US DOW Futures have been down as much as just over 500 points, but at present it is down just over 400 points (about 2.5%). http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart I have heard a "few" comments today, from representatives of the financial/Political sectors & frankly I would put ZERO credibility on most comments!

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:47pm:

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant! perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 4:44pm: Well, All Ords finished day down 211 @ 5,014. https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord Shanghai was also down about 9%, but is now down just over 8%. http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite The US DOW Futures have been down as much as just over 500 points, but at present it is down just over 400 points (about 2.5%). http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart I have heard a "few" comments today, from representatives of the financial/Political sectors & frankly I would put ZERO credibility on most comments!

Do you mean to say that there is anything even remotely new or novel about a share-market slump? There have been dozens of such slumps in recent decades. It is all part of the way in which it works.

mariacostel wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:18pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 4:47pm: I re-post the following here, as it is relevant! perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 4:44pm: Well, All Ords finished day down 211 @ 5,014. https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord Shanghai was also down about 9%, but is now down just over 8%. http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite The US DOW Futures have been down as much as just over 500 points, but at present it is down just over 400 points (about 2.5%). http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart I have heard a "few" comments today, from representatives of the financial/Political sectors & frankly I would put ZERO credibility on most comments! Do you mean to say that there is anything even remotely new or novel about a share-market slump? There have been dozens of such slumps in recent decades. It is all part of the way in which it works.

Maybe so but a drop of 4.2% in one day with US futures down before their market has even opened for business is not something to take too lightly.

crocodile wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:24pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 5:18pm: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 4:47pm: I re-post the following here, as it is relevant! perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 4:44pm: Well, All Ords finished day down 211 @ 5,014. https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord Shanghai was also down about 9%, but is now down just over 8%. http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite The US DOW Futures have been down as much as just over 500 points, but at present it is down just over 400 points (about 2.5%). http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart I have heard a "few" comments today, from representatives of the financial/Political sectors & frankly I would put ZERO credibility on most comments! Do you mean to say that there is anything even remotely new or novel about a share-market slump? There have been dozens of such slumps in recent decades. It is all part of the way in which it works. Maybe so but a drop of 4.2% in one day with US futures down before their market has even opened for business is not something to take too lightly.

I'm not saying that it isn't bad news, but I am saying that it isnt even remotely unprecedented which is the prevailing sentiment here. Could there be anything more artificial though than a Futures Market?

mariacostel wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:31pm:

crocodile wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 5:24pm: mariacostel wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 5:18pm: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 4:47pm: I re-post the following here, as it is relevant! perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 4:44pm: Well, All Ords finished day down 211 @ 5,014. https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord Shanghai was also down about 9%, but is now down just over 8%. http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite The US DOW Futures have been down as much as just over 500 points, but at present it is down just over 400 points (about 2.5%). http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart I have heard a "few" comments today, from representatives of the financial/Political sectors & frankly I would put ZERO credibility on most comments! Do you mean to say that there is anything even remotely new or novel about a share-market slump? There have been dozens of such slumps in recent decades. It is all part of the way in which it works. Maybe so but a drop of 4.2% in one day with US futures down before their market has even opened for business is not something to take too lightly. I'm not saying that it isn't bad news, but I am saying that it isnt even remotely unprecedented which is the prevailing sentiment here. Could there be anything more artificial though than a Futures Market?

It is correct that there is always movement, both up & down, on share markets, both local & Global and that is a given!

That said, THE BASICS THAT ARE CAUSING WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW, THE LEAD UP TO IT (the GFC) & WHAT IS TO COME IN THE YEARS AHEAD, YES IT IS UNPRECEDENTED AND THE POLLIES ARE AWARE OF IT, BUT SAY NOTHING!!!

mariacostel wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:31pm:

crocodile wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 5:24pm: mariacostel wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 5:18pm: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 4:47pm: I re-post the following here, as it is relevant! perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 4:44pm: Well, All Ords finished day down 211 @ 5,014. https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord Shanghai was also down about 9%, but is now down just over 8%. http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite The US DOW Futures have been down as much as just over 500 points, but at present it is down just over 400 points (about 2.5%). http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart I have heard a "few" comments today, from representatives of the financial/Political sectors & frankly I would put ZERO credibility on most comments! Do you mean to say that there is anything even remotely new or novel about a share-market slump? There have been dozens of such slumps in recent decades. It is all part of the way in which it works. Maybe so but a drop of 4.2% in one day with US futures down before their market has even opened for business is not something to take too lightly. I'm not saying that it isn't bad news, but I am saying that it isnt even remotely unprecedented which is the prevailing sentiment here. Could there be anything more artificial though than a Futures Market?

Well the Dow was pretty well smashed last night as well. Expected of course. Then again the US have had QE for quite a while so the stock prices are probably inflated anyway. Interesting times ahead. By the way, the futures exchange is not that artificial. In times of floating currencies and variable interest rates they are quite a popular hedging instrument.

crocodile wrote on Aug 25^th, 2015 at 8:14am:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 5:31pm: crocodile wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 5:24pm: mariacostel wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 5:18pm: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 4:47pm: I re-post the following here, as it is relevant! perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24th, 2015 at 4:44pm: Well, All Ords finished day down 211 @ 5,014. https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord Shanghai was also down about 9%, but is now down just over 8%. http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite The US DOW Futures have been down as much as just over 500 points, but at present it is down just over 400 points (about 2.5%). http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart I have heard a "few" comments today, from representatives of the financial/Political sectors & frankly I would put ZERO credibility on most comments! Do you mean to say that there is anything even remotely new or novel about a share-market slump? There have been dozens of such slumps in recent decades. It is all part of the way in which it works. Maybe so but a drop of 4.2% in one day with US futures down before their market has even opened for business is not something to take too lightly. I'm not saying that it isn't bad news, but I am saying that it isnt even remotely unprecedented which is the prevailing sentiment here. Could there be anything more artificial though than a Futures Market? Well the Dow was pretty well smashed last night as well. Expected of course. Then again the US have had QE for quite a while so the stock prices are probably inflated anyway. Interesting times ahead. By the way, the futures exchange is not that artificial. In times of floating currencies and variable interest rates they are quite a popular hedging instrument.

I would suggest it is a reasonably safe assumption that most governments & C/B's, particularly the US Government & FedRes, will try SOME INTERVENTIONS, so there will be both UPS & DOWNS, but the ECONOMIC BASICS ARE CLEAR & OVER THE YEARS AHEAD THE DOWNTREND WILL BECOME CLEAR!

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant!


perceptions_now wrote on Aug 28^th, 2015 at 6:04pm:

China likely to drag the world into global recession, Citigroup says China is sliding into recession and the leadership will not respond quickly enough with large-scale fiscal policies that could avoid a major slowdown and stimulate demand, Citigroup's top economist Willem Buiter said. The only thing to stop a Chinese recession, which the former external member of the Bank of England defines as 4 per cent growth on "the mendacious official data" for a year, is a consumption-oriented fiscal stimulus program funded by central government and monetised by the People's Bank of China, Buiter said. "Despite the economy crying out for it, the Chinese leadership is not ready for this," said Buiter, the man who coined the term "Grexit" during the Greek debt crisis. China "is an economy that's sliding into recession," the renowned chief economist at Citigroup told a media call hosted Thursday by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. Premier Li is seeking to defend a 7 per cent economic growth goal at a time when concern over slowing demand in China is fuelling volatility in global markets. The true rate of expansion "is probably something closer to 4.5 per cent, or less," Buiter said. Data accuracy Some economists and investors have long questioned the accuracy of China's official growth data.The median estimate of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg earlier this month put China's first-half GDP growth rate at 6.3 per cent, compared with the official figure of 7 per cent. The boom and bust in the Shanghai Composite Index, which more than doubled in about a year before a selloff erased $7 trillion in market value in two months, is raising questions about "the competence of the Chinese authorities as managers of the macro economy," Buiter said. http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-likely-to-drag-the-world-into-global-recession-citigroup-says-20150828-gj9w1g.html ============================================== Well, I don't know what questions are being raised, BUT there are certainly massive question marks over many issues & much of what Governments & CB's are doing, IS VERY QUESTIONABLE! The facts are that the major drivers of Global Economic Growth are now going into Decline AND THERE IS NO WAY THAT ANY GOVERNMENT OR CENTRAL BANK CAN DO TO CHANGE THAT DIRECTION! Those major Economic Drivers being - 1) Demographics 2) Energy 3) An almost Perfect Global Climate So, Governments & C/B's are simply going to have to CHANGE THEIR STANDARD PRACTICE OF REQUIRING GROWTH & THEY WILL NOW HAVE TO ENSURE WE ALL LIVE WITHIN OUR MEANS! In other words, THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS UNLIMITED GROWTH AND WE ARE NOW AT THE LIMITS OF MANY THINGS WHICH PREVIOUSLY DROVE GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH, SO WE MUST ALL NOW PULL OUR HEADS IN & THAT INCLUDES POLITICIANS, THE WEALTHY, BIG BUSINESS, UNIONS & THOSE WHO WOULD OTHERWISE LIVE OFF ENTITLEMENTS, TO WHICH THEY MAY NOT BE ENTITLED!

Perceptions, you seem to say pretty much the same thing every post. You change the orders of the words a little, but once you've read one or two of your posts, the rest are the same: doom, gloom, persistent frustration. The one thing missing however, are facts.

I am sure you think you present facts, but you don't. You just present opinion along the lines of the people predicting global depression for the past 20 years and been wrong every year.

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 28^th, 2015 at 6:14pm:

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant! perceptions_now wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 6:04pm: China likely to drag the world into global recession, Citigroup says China is sliding into recession and the leadership will not respond quickly enough with large-scale fiscal policies that could avoid a major slowdown and stimulate demand, Citigroup's top economist Willem Buiter said. The only thing to stop a Chinese recession, which the former external member of the Bank of England defines as 4 per cent growth on "the mendacious official data" for a year, is a consumption-oriented fiscal stimulus program funded by central government and monetised by the People's Bank of China, Buiter said. "Despite the economy crying out for it, the Chinese leadership is not ready for this," said Buiter, the man who coined the term "Grexit" during the Greek debt crisis. China "is an economy that's sliding into recession," the renowned chief economist at Citigroup told a media call hosted Thursday by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. Premier Li is seeking to defend a 7 per cent economic growth goal at a time when concern over slowing demand in China is fuelling volatility in global markets. The true rate of expansion "is probably something closer to 4.5 per cent, or less," Buiter said. Data accuracy Some economists and investors have long questioned the accuracy of China's official growth data.The median estimate of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg earlier this month put China's first-half GDP growth rate at 6.3 per cent, compared with the official figure of 7 per cent. The boom and bust in the Shanghai Composite Index, which more than doubled in about a year before a selloff erased $7 trillion in market value in two months, is raising questions about "the competence of the Chinese authorities as managers of the macro economy," Buiter said. http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-likely-to-drag-the-world-into-global-recession-citigroup-says-20150828-gj9w1g.html ============================================== Well, I don't know what questions are being raised, BUT there are certainly massive question marks over many issues & much of what Governments & CB's are doing, IS VERY QUESTIONABLE! The facts are that the major drivers of Global Economic Growth are now going into Decline AND THERE IS NO WAY THAT ANY GOVERNMENT OR CENTRAL BANK CAN DO TO CHANGE THAT DIRECTION! Those major Economic Drivers being - 1) Demographics 2) Energy 3) An almost Perfect Global Climate So, Governments & C/B's are simply going to have to CHANGE THEIR STANDARD PRACTICE OF REQUIRING GROWTH & THEY WILL NOW HAVE TO ENSURE WE ALL LIVE WITHIN OUR MEANS! In other words, THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS UNLIMITED GROWTH AND WE ARE NOW AT THE LIMITS OF MANY THINGS WHICH PREVIOUSLY DROVE GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH, SO WE MUST ALL NOW PULL OUR HEADS IN & THAT INCLUDES POLITICIANS, THE WEALTHY, BIG BUSINESS, UNIONS & THOSE WHO WOULD OTHERWISE LIVE OFF ENTITLEMENTS, TO WHICH THEY MAY NOT BE ENTITLED!

Oh & BTW, GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF PLAY, I WOULD SUGGEST A DOWN SESSION ON THE DOW, MAY BE QUITE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, IN CASE "SOMETHING" GETS THE WOBBLES OVER THE WEEKEND?!

mariacostel wrote on Aug 28^th, 2015 at 6:22pm:

Perceptions, you seem to say pretty much the same thing every post. You change the orders of the words a little, but once you've read one or two of your posts, the rest are the same: doom, gloom, persistent frustration. The one thing missing however, are facts. I am sure you think you present facts, but you don't. You just present opinion along the lines of the people predicting global depression for the past 20 years and been wrong every year.

Actually, he doesn't.....it's just that you can't comprehend the written word very well.

Looking through rose coloured glasses won't save you when crunch time comes.

Can you see any meaningful economic growth anytime soon longy?

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Aug 28^th, 2015 at 11:04pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 6:22pm: Perceptions, you seem to say pretty much the same thing every post. You change the orders of the words a little, but once you've read one or two of your posts, the rest are the same: doom, gloom, persistent frustration. The one thing missing however, are facts. I am sure you think you present facts, but you don't. You just present opinion along the lines of the people predicting global depression for the past 20 years and been wrong every year. Actually, he doesn't.....it's just that you can't comprehend the written word very well. Looking through rose coloured glasses won't save you when crunch time comes. Can you see any meaningful economic growth anytime soon longy?

It may surprise you to learn that Australia IS in growth and has been for all but one quarter in the last 25 years. USA is in growth. UK is in growth. Most of Europe is in growth. So, apart from your apparent personal depression, where do you see significant absence of growth?

mariacostel wrote on Aug 29^th, 2015 at 1:55pm:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 11:04pm: mariacostel wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 6:22pm: Perceptions, you seem to say pretty much the same thing every post. You change the orders of the words a little, but once you've read one or two of your posts, the rest are the same: doom, gloom, persistent frustration. The one thing missing however, are facts. I am sure you think you present facts, but you don't. You just present opinion along the lines of the people predicting global depression for the past 20 years and been wrong every year. Actually, he doesn't.....it's just that you can't comprehend the written word very well. Looking through rose coloured glasses won't save you when crunch time comes. Can you see any meaningful economic growth anytime soon longy? It may surprise you to learn that Australia IS in growth and has been for all but one quarter in the last 25 years. USA is in growth. UK is in growth. Most of Europe is in growth. So, apart from your apparent personal depression, where do you see significant absence of growth?

Maria’s standard of economic growth refers to the lack of a recession.

Will you revise this formula when Labor return to government, dear?

Karnal wrote on Aug 29^th, 2015 at 2:00pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 1:55pm: Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 11:04pm: mariacostel wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 6:22pm: Perceptions, you seem to say pretty much the same thing every post. You change the orders of the words a little, but once you've read one or two of your posts, the rest are the same: doom, gloom, persistent frustration. The one thing missing however, are facts. I am sure you think you present facts, but you don't. You just present opinion along the lines of the people predicting global depression for the past 20 years and been wrong every year. Actually, he doesn't.....it's just that you can't comprehend the written word very well. Looking through rose coloured glasses won't save you when crunch time comes. Can you see any meaningful economic growth anytime soon longy? It may surprise you to learn that Australia IS in growth and has been for all but one quarter in the last 25 years. USA is in growth. UK is in growth. Most of Europe is in growth. So, apart from your apparent personal depression, where do you see significant absence of growth? Maria’s standard of economic growth refers to the lack of a recession. Will you revise this formula when Labor return to government, dear?

That's the economists definition too when there are in fact only two options: positive or negative growth. As to your question, take at look at my last statement and let's see if you can possibly work it out all on your own.

mariacostel wrote on Aug 29^th, 2015 at 2:08pm:

Karnal wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 2:00pm: mariacostel wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 1:55pm: Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 11:04pm: mariacostel wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 6:22pm: Perceptions, you seem to say pretty much the same thing every post. You change the orders of the words a little, but once you've read one or two of your posts, the rest are the same: doom, gloom, persistent frustration. The one thing missing however, are facts. I am sure you think you present facts, but you don't. You just present opinion along the lines of the people predicting global depression for the past 20 years and been wrong every year. Actually, he doesn't.....it's just that you can't comprehend the written word very well. Looking through rose coloured glasses won't save you when crunch time comes. Can you see any meaningful economic growth anytime soon longy? It may surprise you to learn that Australia IS in growth and has been for all but one quarter in the last 25 years. USA is in growth. UK is in growth. Most of Europe is in growth. So, apart from your apparent personal depression, where do you see significant absence of growth? Maria’s standard of economic growth refers to the lack of a recession. Will you revise this formula when Labor return to government, dear? That's the economists definition too when there are in fact only two options: positive or negative growth. As to your question, take at look at my last statement and let's see if you can possibly work it out all on your own.

The answer has to be no, dear. Only when we’re in recession can a government be criticised for low economic growth.

mariacostel wrote on Aug 29^th, 2015 at 1:55pm:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 11:04pm: mariacostel wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 6:22pm: Perceptions, you seem to say pretty much the same thing every post. You change the orders of the words a little, but once you've read one or two of your posts, the rest are the same: doom, gloom, persistent frustration. The one thing missing however, are facts. I am sure you think you present facts, but you don't. You just present opinion along the lines of the people predicting global depression for the past 20 years and been wrong every year. Actually, he doesn't.....it's just that you can't comprehend the written word very well. Looking through rose coloured glasses won't save you when crunch time comes. Can you see any meaningful economic growth anytime soon longy? It may surprise you to learn that Australia IS in growth and has been for all but one quarter in the last 25 years. USA is in growth. UK is in growth. Most of Europe is in growth. So, apart from your apparent personal depression, where do you see significant absence of growth?

Australia GDP 1960-2015
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/australia-gdp-growth-annual.png?s=aunagdpy&v=201508181642h&d1=19150101&d2=20151231

USA GDP 1948-2015
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/united-states-gdp-growth-annual.png?s=gdp+cyoy&v=201508271410h&d1=19150101&d2=20151231

UK GDP 1956-2015
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/united-kingdom-gdp-growth-annual.png?s=ukgrybzy&v=201508282258h&d1=19150101&d2=20151231

Euro GDP 1995-2015
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/euro-area-gdp-growth-annual.png?s=eugnemuy&v=201508271757h&d1=19150101&d2=20151231

It may surprise you or it may not, to learn that the Economies of each of the countries/trading blocks you referred to are actually in a long term Growth Decline!

Whilst "official" Growth may still be showing, those figures are "somewhat" untrustworthy and even those reduced growth levels will disappear, over the years ahead, before going into an actual & long term Decline.

That said, the crux of what is happening is that Demographic & Energy Limits are now under great stress, the "goldilocks climate" is now disappearing & for those reasons the usual recover that inevitably followed past Economic downturns will not happen this time.

Or, as previously stated, "this time is different"!

You have a good long weekend now, ya hear! 

Oh, if only Longy were here. He’d be able to sort this out, based on the maths.

Karnal wrote on Aug 29^th, 2015 at 3:20pm:

Oh, if only Longy were here. He’d be able to sort this out, based on the maths.

Well, I would suggest Longy's "belief system" is most likely stronger than his "Maths capacity". 

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 29^th, 2015 at 3:46pm:

Karnal wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 3:20pm: Oh, if only Longy were here. He’d be able to sort this out, based on the maths. Well, I would suggest Longy's "belief system" is most likely stronger than his "Maths capacity".

I didn't know Longy had a belief system, Perceptions. Didn't he just support whatever Mr Abbott said?

I repost the following here, as it is relevant!


perceptions_now wrote on Oct 12^th, 2015 at 12:58pm:

Forget Peak Oil - It's All About Peak Population Growth Summary Global annual population growth peaked in 1988 and is decelerating. Global annual population growth is estimated to be back to 1950 levels by 2050 but the bulk of "growth" will be among 65+ year olds living longer...not greater births. Substituting lower interest rates and encouraging more debt for declining population growth (consumption) was and is a tragic error by our central bankers. The idea that global population growth will perpetually drive increasing demand for food, natural resources, real estate, consumer goods, and global trade is a common theme. This idea of ever greater demand drives most investors thinking and actions. The premise the world currently operates under is that demand (consumption) will grow driven by population increases coupled with wage increases and be magnified by access to credit. The resultant growth will allow rapidly growing debt to be serviced / paid by even more rapidly growing global trade. But actually, this is mostly wrong now...and eventually entirely wrong. Why??? Global Population Growth Decelerating According to OECD.stat, global annual population growth peaked in 1988 (chart below) at +93 million/yr and is now +81 million/yr despite the larger total global population. However, by 2050, OECD estimates that population growth will be the same as 100 years earlier (46 million/yr). It is fair to say this is a "best case" scenario for population growth and if global economic activity continues to "underperform" consensus expectations...population growth will also underperform the below expectations. They will mutually negatively impact one another (as they did positively on the way up) and a vicious cycle well underway. https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/10/6/40246456-14441146845058866-Christopher-Hamilton.png Today's Population Growth is Old Living Longer...Not More Babies This is a death dearth...not a baby boom. https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/10/7/40246456-1444237525589743-Christopher-Hamilton.png However, like a tsunami rolling across the ocean from its epicenter (industrialism), peak populations will hit different nations at different times and with varying severity. Japan, Germany, Taiwan, China, S. Korea, US and almost all the EU nations are already decades into this process while Brazil and India are midstream and Africa has really only just begun. Advanced OECD Economies Among the advanced economies of the OECD, population growth of the young ended long ago. https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/10/5/40246456-14440731895575335-Christopher-Hamilton.png Declining Numbers of Young will Suffer Higher Unemployment due to ongoing Productivity & Innovation Conclusion Global young and core population growth is rapidly decelerating and growth of 65+yr/old populations is rapidly increasing. In individual nations (US chart below), as core growth decelerates or goes negative and is replaced by growth among the old, oil consumption declines and economic activity decelerates.. https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/10/6/40246456-1444152687438578-Christopher-Hamilton.png In response to decelerating demand, interest rate cuts and debt are substituted for the decelerating growth (US FFR and debt responding to changing core growth, below). https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/10/6/40246456-14441527762999299-Christopher-Hamilton.png Decelerating global population growth, particularly among the young, highlights why the central bank prescription of ever lower rates incentivizing ever more debt to be serviced by a flat to declining young population is such tragic folly. The Fed has simply (and quite wrongly) been fighting demographic changes to the US core with FFR cuts and resultant debt. The entirely predictable and foreseeable has come to pass, our economic and financial systems based on infinite growth have run into very finite population limits. An entirely new mode of thought (based on the above facts rather than consensus fiction) and action are necessary to cope with the legacy issues we now face. The sooner, the better. Preparing for a world of declining growth of demand / consumption will result in massive overcapacity, "challenges" for the overleveraged, and generally a stable or more likely shrinking pie. As for investors, this changes everything! http://seekingalpha.com/article/3556596-forget-peak-oil-its-all-about-peak-population-growth?ifp=0 ============================================ This article makes many very valid points, in line with what I have often said previously! But, we can not forget about Oil, as we are now interlocked more than at any other time in history and issues such as Energy, Climate & Technology also impact on many things, as does Demographics! So, if any Politician (from any Political Party) says that they can restore Economic Growth, you will know THEY HAVE NO UNDERSTANDING OF THE NEW/CURRENT ECONOMIC BASICS OR THEY ARE LYING!!!

I repost the following here, as it is relevant!


perceptions_now wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 12:25pm:

US wealth inequality - top 0.1% worth as much as the bottom 90% Not since the Great Depression has wealth inequality in the US been so acute, new in-depth study finds. Over the past three decades, the share of household wealth owned by the top 0.1% has increased from 7% to 22%. For the bottom 90% of families, a combination of rising debt, the collapse of the value of their assets during the financial crisis, and stagnant real wages have led to the erosion of wealth. The share of wealth owned by the top 0.1% is almost the same as the bottom 90%. http://static.guim.co.uk/ni/1415721490539/Wealth_line-chart.svg The chart shows how the top 0.1% of families now own roughly the same share of wealth as the bottom 90%. http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/13/us-wealth-inequality-top-01-worth-as-much-as-the-bottom-90 ============================================== The thing is that nothing goes on forever & there are limits to everything! We are also now more interlocked than at any other time in modern Economic history! All of which means, change must come or everyone will lose! To start the ball rolling, the Politicians (all  of them) will have to put aside their own short term benefits & those of their supporters (Businesses, Unions, etc). They will have to start ensuring that everyone pays their fair share of Taxes, which is not happening now, particularly for those at the top 10% of income earners/wealthy & for those large businesses, particularly Global Businesses AND they will have to roll back some of the Entitlements, particularly for those who don't need them! We can no longer afford, the days of PLAYING Politics!

Fiona Stanley, Royal Perth and Fremantle hospitals hardest hit in staff cuts

METROPOLITAN hospitals are bracing for massive staff cuts with the Health Department imposing “budget management strategies”.

Fiona Stanley, Royal Perth and Fremantle hospitals will be the worst hit, with the Health Services Union expecting about 500 jobs to be shed at Royal Perth and similar numbers at Fiona Stanley.

The union says its previous predictions of about 1000 job cuts “across the board” now appeared “conservative” and it urged the department to “come clean”.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/fiona-stanley-royal-perth-and-fremantle-hospitals-hardest-hit-in-staff-cuts/story-fnii5tho-1227600197884
==============================================
This story also appeared in the Perth Sunday Times today, along with a few other "interesting" articles.

One of the other articles noted a patient who was unwell last June & whose GP wrote an urgent referral to have his prostate look at.
What followed was -
A category one biopsy appointment dropped off the system.
An MRI took a whole year to be booked in.
An Oncology appointment wa also lost in the system.
The patient said, he "pushed every step of the way", But he got the complete run around!

In another article, a patient & his family found out about him having cancer, via a "letter in the post".

So, why are these issues worth writing about?
Well, the answer lays with our Aging Demographic society!
And, even with our Aging Demographics being a well known issue, which has been apparent for quite some time and that this would mean a dramatic increase in Health Costs, because of the ailments incurred by an Aging society, governments have not allowed for this obvious Cost increase.
In fact, in is apparent they (the Politicians) are now planning on "running down the health system", because they haven't allowed for these obvious costs in their planning!

And, burgeoning Health Cost increases are not the only thing, which neither Liberal nor Labor have planned for properly!   

This is NOT the time to Decrease Health Services/Workers (sack a 1,000 Health Workers), IT IS A TIME TO INCREASE, BECAUSE OF OUR AGING DEMOGRAPHICS!
This is a Political & Economic Reality!

Demographics will have a powerful & ongoing influence over the issue perceptions.
But it's not the only factor.

1. And this will be scoffed at, but smarter organisation could see more resources (= funds) transferred out of administration into service delivery. If governments were willing and politically inclined to take a harder line with the public sector unions, management & clerical functions could be substantially slimmed down and medical/nursing functions expanded.

2. A better organisation of the primary health care resources would help.
At the moment still we see A & E facilities overburdened with cases that could adequately be dealt with by GPs if government was inspired enough to offer GPs more incentive for expanded hours.
It would imo be a hell of a lot cheaper to do this than run A & E 24 hours a day handing out pills for minor ailments.
Again this would free up hospital resources for their real job.

bogarde73 wrote on Nov 9^th, 2015 at 1:00pm:

Demographics will have a powerful & ongoing influence over the issue perceptions. But it's not the only factor. 1. And this will be scoffed at, but smarter organisation could see more resources (= funds) transferred out of administration into service delivery. If governments were willing and politically inclined to take a harder line with the public sector unions, management & clerical functions could be substantially slimmed down and medical/nursing functions expanded. 2. A better organisation of the primary health care resources would help. At the moment still we see A & E facilities overburdened with cases that could adequately be dealt with by GPs if government was inspired enough to offer GPs more incentive for expanded hours. It would imo be a hell of a lot cheaper to do this than run A & E 24 hours a day handing out pills for minor ailments. Again this would free up hospital resources for their real job.

Quite correct, there are other factors -


perceptions_now wrote on Feb 25^th, 2014 at 9:15am:

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 23rd, 2014 at 4:24pm: Just because Politicians say something, doesn't make it true. In fact, usually the opposite is correct. In this instance, it is the opposite that is true, as the Global basics will make the Growth "aim" impossible! What Global Basics, you say, well - 1) Demographics have been the backstop of Economic Growth, for around 60-80 years, depending on which criteria is used and the Peaks & troughs of Demographics are usually reflected 50 years later. So, 2014 is now set to reflect the fact that the Baby Boomer era ended in 1964, which means Demand will Decline, not increase, as the last Boomers now go into their final savings years & the bulk of Boomers actually enter their "spendthrift" Retirement years. And, 2014 is also set for the Bust phase of the current & usual Economic Boom/Bust cycle. 2) Peak Energy has arrived, thus the cost of Energy & everything related to energy has been rising & will rise much more, thus eating greatly into the "Disposable income" of the vast majority of people, thus reducing Demand. 3) Global Debt is already at historic highs and moves must be made to start the long haul back! Thus Taxes must increase, Tax loopholes must be closed & Expenditures must Decrease, in order to start down the Debt reduction path. This also means that Demand will Decline, not increase! 4) Climate Change, irrespective of whether it is natural or man made, is causing many problems. It is driving up costs, it is set to deliver a Decline in Agricultural Production & in many areas a lack of rainfall will put restrictions on Population increases. All of which will put a further Decline into Demand! So, whilst our "friendly Pollies", of all shapes & sizes, from here & elsewhere & from all types of Political Party's may say they will "aim" for higher Growth, But the Reality is, based on Real Facts, they have as much chance of success in achieving their higher Growth  "aim", as does a Pig in trying to Fly, the Pig may try, but all that's going to happen is he will make the leap "of faith", then die, as he crashes to the ground! Sorry, to be so blunt, But facts are facts and nothing any Polly will say, is going to make these facts go away! Further to the Peak Energy issue - Running on empty: Australia’s dependence on imported fossil fuels Australia’s dependence on traditional and imported liquid fuel sources and transport technologies is putting our national security – and very way of life – at risk, a new study has found. Yet Australia continues to ignore alternative fuel strategies, that could include more renewable energy and electric vehicles. An NRMA-commissioned report on the nation’s liquid fuel security, released on Monday, warns that Australia’s severely declining oil refining industry, and increasing demand for liquid fuels, could result in a scenario in 2030 where it has less than 20 days worth of fuel in reserve, and 100 per cent imported liquid fuel dependency. Titled Australia’s Liquid Fuel Security, the report recommends a comprehensive, national response that addresses both demand and supply sides of the liquid fuel delivery chain, including increased focus on the technologies and energy sources used and alternative fuel supply. “Waiting for a catastrophic failure before acting could result in damage to our security, our economy and our way of life. And the longer we wait to act, the fewer options we will have.” Link - http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/running-on-empty-australias-dependence-on-imported-fossil-fuels-92310 =========================================== The last sentence above, may ring a few bells, as that is pretty much what all of our Politicians have done, for the OZ Economy in general, over the last 40-50 years and now is the time "to reap what has been sown". Oh & btw, Australia's own Oil Production has Decline some 50%, since the turn of the century and Production continues to slide!

Agree with pretty much all of that except peak energy.

There are a lot of issues with oil I feel we don't really know about.
Why are the Saudis holding the oil price down at levels which (a) is going to see them run out of foreign reserves in a very few years and (b) is not going to see demand decrease? Does it only have to do with US shale?

How much undisclosed reserves do big oil and the Russians really have?

When you speak of peak energy, are you referring only to oil or do you factor in gas, coal and renewables, all of which form part of the picture.
But of course the big question for energy is climate change.

bogarde73 wrote on Nov 9^th, 2015 at 1:00pm:

Demographics will have a powerful & ongoing influence over the issue perceptions. But it's not the only factor. 1. And this will be scoffed at, but smarter organisation could see more resources (= funds) transferred out of administration into service delivery. If governments were willing and politically inclined to take a harder line with the public sector unions, management & clerical functions could be substantially slimmed down and medical/nursing functions expanded. 2. A better organisation of the primary health care resources would help. At the moment still we see A & E facilities overburdened with cases that could adequately be dealt with by GPs if government was inspired enough to offer GPs more incentive for expanded hours. It would imo be a hell of a lot cheaper to do this than run A & E 24 hours a day handing out pills for minor ailments. Again this would free up hospital resources for their real job.

Your second point is Labor’s superclinics.

Your first point would need a radical revision of the Treasury Act and Regulations and Directions under that Act. That is something I have wanted for 40 or so years. Doesn’t need a “harder line” taken with PS unions at all.

I repost the following here, as it is relevant -


perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 6:52pm:

Ageing population a global problem: RBA The increasing number of retirees in parts around the world and record low interest rate are a problem for the global economy. Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens says while many believe the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise its interest rate next month the pace of subsequent increases are likely to be slow. Meanwhile, central banks in Japan and Europe which also have an ageing population are a long way from considering an interest rate rise. He added that China's working age population is also shrinking as people move into retirement. Mr Stevens said the problem with an ageing population was that there were less people in jobs causing a drag on the economy and the ability to pay welfare and public health care costs. "Instead of five or six people for every retired person there's two or two and a half," he said. "It may be that jobs will be robotised ... in the long run we may need that to some extent." Mr Stevens says the share of services in most economies will continue to increase with health and aged care obvious areas for expansion because of an ageing population. "The thing we have to most grapple with is to make our children more productive so they can earn enough to pay the taxes and help the capital return to keep us in our dotage," he said. Mr Stevens said continued low interest rates around the world would make it hard for people to fund their retirement. "In a low interest rate world, the problems of providing retirement incomes will become ever more prominent," he said. "Overall, in a world where a higher proportion of the population wants to be retired and living - even if only in part - off the return on their savings, those returns are likely, all other things equal, to be lower. "And there are more of such people, living longer." http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/ageing-population-a-global-problem-rba/news-story/36f8b16e87f80123102b7e3c57963040 ============================================= There is an "old phrase", which comes to mind here - No Sh!t, Sherlock! These issues have been known or should have been known, for quite some time, UNYET GOVERNMENTS (OF BOTH MAJOR PERSUASIONS) & THE RBA DID NOT TAKE THE APPROPRIATE ACTIONS, IN THE LONG TERM BEST INTERESTS OF ALL  AUSTRALIANS, THEY CONTINUED WITH THE SHORT TERM BEST INTERESTS OF THEMSELVES & A SELECT FEW! However, in the final wrap up, the select few will also be losers, along with ALL AUSTRALIANS! Oh & btw, Demographgics are not the only issue/s now in play!!! Similar issues are also in play, overseas!

In a Capitalist system (Market system).. a stable and responsible Government is the most important factor, because it is the job of the government to regulate the free market and keep it free (regulating to ensure small business have a fair go and can go up against big multinational corporations and win, and at the same time keep multinational corporations in their place and protect the consumer and the worker).

However, Unions, Corporations, Interest groups have gotten to involved in politics.. politicians have allowed themselves to be corrupted, bought out, and sold.. the issue isn't whether Austrian, nor the Keynesian basics Economics still works because i think they clearly do.. the issue is the system has been regulated to serve the interest of either Unions, Corporations or Interest groups or politicians themselves, corrupting the system itself.

The issue isn't economical but more political with our  politicians becoming nothing more than puppets, harming their own sections of the economy for their own gain.

the Demise of the Baby Boomers doesn't mean the good times are over.

Pantheon wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 7:51pm:

In a Capitalist system (Market system).. a stable and responsible Government is the most important factor, because it is the job of the government to regulate the free market and keep it free (regulating to ensure small business have a fair go and can go up against big multinational corporations and win, and at the same time keep multinational corporations in their place and protect the consumer and the worker). However, Unions, Corporations, Interest groups have gotten to involved in politics.. politicians have allowed themselves to be corrupted, bought out, and sold.. the issue isn't whether Austrian, nor the Keynesian basics Economics still works because i think they clearly do.. the issue is the system has been regulated to serve the interest of either Unions, Corporations or Interest groups or politicians themselves, corrupting the system itself. The issue isn't economical but more political with our  politicians becoming nothing more than puppets, harming their own sections of the economy for their own gain. the Demise of the Baby Boomers doesn't mean the good times are over.

I agree, the Politicians & a few other "interested party's", are certainly responsible for quite a lot of what is happening now & what is to come!

One out of 2, ain't bad, I suppose?
Actually, by itself the Demographics would certainly be a "substantial problem/issue, But the Demographics are not alone, there are also -
1) Energy & related issues.
2) Climate & related issues.
3) Poorly handled past Economics, now converting into massive Global Debt & related issues.

I RE-POST THE FOLLOWING HERE, AS IT IS RELEVANT!



perceptions_now wrote on Dec 12^th, 2015 at 11:39am:

Well, something was again afoot, with overnight trading - Dow finished DOWn 310 @ 17,265 - off 1.76% DAX finished DOWn 259 @ 10,340 - off 2.44% http://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices Based on the above & the Economic basics, it is quite possible, the OZ All Ords MAY go into the number range beginning with 4 on Monday? That said, it is also likely that the All Ords will trade with a number beginning with a 2, at some point in the not too distant future AND THAT WILL HAPPEN IRRESPECTIVE OF WHICH POLITICAL PARTY IS IN POWER IN OZ! Oh & Wti Oil finished last night @ $35.35! http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil

I re-post here!


perceptions_now wrote on Dec 12^th, 2015 at 2:15pm:

Global Cooling: The World's Dangerously Slowing Economy In 4 Simple Charts Summary Despite the rhetoric, the world's economy is slowing dramatically. This is particularly dangerous now with the disconnect in record high stock, bond, real estate markets. Four simple charts tell the real story behind the slowing global economy. Despite the political rhetoric of the economic experts and market media pundits, the world economy is slowing and likely to slow even more dramatically in the short months and years ahead. The reason this is dangerous right now is that most financial markets across the developed economies of the world have yet to appropriately discount this significant market risk and economic reality. With financial markets now entering the 8th year of our long running 5-7 year boom-to-bust market cycle, this can and will likely change at any moment. The following 4 simple charts are all you need to see. 1. CRUDE OIL https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/12/8/saupload_AAEAAQAAAAAAAAYnAAAAJDYyODMwMWU1LTczZGYtNDExZS1iODlmLTY4Y2Y1MDE5NDljOA.png Energy is the lifeblood of economic activity, and crude oil and fossil fuels still supply over 80% of the world's energy output. Despite 'peak oil' supply concerns and an increase in alternative energy production over the past decade, oil prices are now in record free-fall. Although crude oil supply has grown significantly, depressed oil prices may indicate that world demand for oil is slowing dramatically too - with oil prices off over 65% in 18 months. 2. COPPER https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/12/8/saupload_AAEAAQAAAAAAAAQkAAAAJGNhZWY3ODcwLTMzNDYtNDY3Ny04OWQ2LTM4NWE1ODM0NDQ5YQ.png With copper's widespread use in many sectors of the global economy, the market price of copper often reflects on the overall health of the global economy. 'Dr. Copper', as noted above, has been in relative 'crash mode' since late in 2011, dropping nearly 55%. 3. INTEREST RATES https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/12/8/saupload_AAEAAQAAAAAAAAXyAAAAJGVjOTk3NzcxLTkyZjAtNDE2YS1iNTkxLTRkOTM0NTkwMmEzNg.png https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/12/8/saupload_AAEAAQAAAAAAAAWWAAAAJDMwYjE5Y2Q4LTE0NTYtNGJmOC1iMTI0LWNiODNjNzBiYjMyYw.png World interest rates and government bond yields are arguably the most important leading indicator to the world's economic prosperity. With the record low interest rates and the global 'cost-of-money' also in free-fall across the developed world, a deep economic deflation is now unfolding despite the global central banking rhetoric and spin. Further evidence of a worldwide deflation is the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). The EFSF was created to safeguard financial stability in Europe by providing financial assistance to euro area member states. As you can see from the current negative bond yields above, European debt and the European economy is on life support too. 4. U.S. DOLLAR https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/12/8/saupload_AAEAAQAAAAAAAAW2AAAAJDg2NTdmYTViLWMxMzEtNGNjNS1iNDljLWUwMDg0YTY3ZWQ4OQ.png Last but not least, the world's reserve currency and global de facto safe haven remains the US Dollar. As a rule, capital will seek out safe haven currencies and investments when concerns for the economy and markets turn precarious and troubling. With this in mind, note the clear evidence of a significant ongoing flight-to-quality over the last 18 months with the massive international capital flight into the USA as illustrated in the rising US Dollar Index above. The US Dollar Index is up over 25% over this short period, with near 25% direct upside performance versus major core economy currencies including the EURO and Japanese YEN. As the world continues to cool (economically), the world's central bankers outside of the US are aggressively cutting interest rates and devaluing their local currencies in an attempt to export their economies into prosperity. A new global currency war is well underway. As a result, we expect that the rising US Dollar still has a long way to go. With real market prices reflecting the aggregate sum of all economic and investor input in real time, it is real market pricing that remains the most important and reliable market indicator of future economic activity. Despite the constant rhetoric to the contrary, price never lies. Price matters. The world economy is dangerously slowing. Invest accordingly. http://seekingalpha.com/article/3745156-global-cooling-the-worlds-dangerously-slowing-economy-in-4-simple-charts?ifp=0 ============================================= It should be noted that - 1) The Decline in Energy Prices is NOT restricted to just Oil, see Coal for starters! 2) The Decline in General Commodity Prices is NOT restricted to just Copper, see Iron Ore for starters! It should also be noted that these Declines relate NOT to Supply, But to Demand Decline! It should also be noted that, Demand Decline relates mainly to Demographics, which are set to continue for quite some time! And, irrespective of what any Politician may say, Demand Decline will continue & Economic Growth will Decline!

I Re-post the following here, as it is relevant.


perceptions_now wrote on Dec 31^st, 2015 at 12:55pm:

Growth Ain't What It Used To Be And Won't Be Coming Back Anytime Soon... Here's Why Summary Population Growth is the greatest factor in growing consumption and GDP growth. Over the past 4yrs, the US Census has downgraded US population growth drastically. Almost the entirety of the population downgrades have been among the future younger population segments...the impacts for unfunded SS, Medicare, and so much more has gotten so much worse. Growth is all about greater flow, not stock. Said otherwise, growth in consumption and GDP generally happens via population growth, wage growth, and/or credit growth...the greatest being population growth. So, in that context, the below probably matters (a lot). In 2008, the US Census Bureau projected strong population gains through 2050 helping to drive growing consumption and US economic growth. The projected population growth was generally balanced across age segments primarily driven by gains in young Hispanics due to higher birth rates and immigration. But in 2012, in a story here the Census acknowledged that these were bad assumptions as these trends were not continuing, as had been expected. In December of 2014, again here, the US Census affirmed and further downgraded it's population projections from 2012. The Census now anticipates a 32% reduction from it's previous 2008 projections for US population growth from 2015 to 2050 (or about 36 million fewer Americans...chart below). https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/12/29/saupload_222.3.png The US is still projected to grow by 77m but significantly less than the previous estimate of 113m. 95% of the cuts to the population growth are in the under 45yr/old population. As the chart below highlights, the cuts among the 0-24 and 25-44 populations were massive...the change in growth among the 45 and older miniscule. https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/12/29/saupload_222.2.png The chart below highlights the reductions in population growth across the age segments, and as mentioned above, the 0-24yr/old population growth was slashed by 76% or 24 million fewer youth and 40% fewer 25-44yr/olds. That this isn't front page news is, I suppose, a sign of the times. GDP and potential economic growth estimates weren't ratcheted back to match the huge slowdown in young vs. continuing growth among older populations. https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/12/29/saupload_222.png For those wondering when economic growth will be getting back to "normal"...the US Census has made it clear there is a "new abnormal"...in the new abnormal population growth is among the old. Little to no growth among the young. Wage growth is next to nil. The only hope for those awaiting "trend" growth is another doubling or tripling of credit / debt every seven years or so to move the needle along. Never mind that's pretty much next to impossible without the wheels coming off the cart. Welcome to the new abnormal which the Fed, Federal .Gov, nor Wall St. will acknowledge. And if our leadership won't even acknowledge there is a problem, we can take none of the necessary though painful steps to begin a resolution. http://seekingalpha.com/article/3782536-growth-aint-what-it-used-to-be-and-wont-be-coming-back-anytime-soon-heres-why?ifp=0 ============================================== A few observations - 1) It is not only the US Government & Central Banker, that would even acknowledge there are issues here, let alone acknowledging there are Problems, let alone acknowledging those Problems are "once in history" and they definitely are not going near the fact that these Problems do not have "auto solutions", like those administered to the usual Business cycle ups & downs! 2) The issues raised here, do not just apply to the USA, they are pretty much Global, with some variations AND THE FLOW ON EFFECTS ARE & WILL BE ENORMOUS! 3) The US Census is still not "coming clean" with the full likely outcomes AND they are MILES OUT on the 45 & over estimates, as pretty much ALL OF THE MILLIONS (usa)/BILLIONS (GLOBAL) of BABY BOOMERS WILL BE DEAD BY 2050! 4) Demographics are not the only MAJOR factor now influencing the Global Economy, with the following also having major impacts - a) ENERGY - Via Demand, Supply & Pricing! b) Climate Change - Via Food & Water Supply/Pricing AND impacts on Economic Destruction & increased Debt via the Cost/s of preventing or Repairing Damaged infrastructure & Agriculture.

I Re-post the following here, as it is relevant!


perceptions_now wrote on Dec 31^st, 2015 at 2:59pm:

Apple said to pay Italy $477m in tax-avoidance deal Apple will pay Italy's tax office €318 million ($477 million) to settle a dispute over allegations it failed to pay taxes for six years, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said on Wednesday. Italian prosecutors have been investigating allegations that Apple failed to pay corporate taxes to the tune of €879 million in 2008-13 by reducing its taxable income when it booked profits generated in Italy through its Irish subsidiary, sources told Reuters earlier this year. "Apple will pay the tax agency €318 million and will sign a new tax accord for fiscal years 2015 onwards early next year," the source said. http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/apple-said-to-pay-italy-570m-in-tax-avoidance-deal-20151230-glx3yy.html ============================================= Interestingly, whilst this story has been raised on ABC TV & seems to have broken Globally some 13 hours ago, it still doesn't appear on the main Google news site! https://news.google.com.au/nwshp?hl=en&ei=t7OEVtj4FIXV0ATD_oaQDA&ved=0EKkuCAkoBw I wonder why that could be? But, if you type in Italy, then there are quite a few stories - https://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&gl=au&tbm=nws&authuser=0&q=largest+global+companys&oq=largest+global+companys&gs_l=news-cc.12..43j43i53.38968.47383.0.51320.23.10.0.13.1.0.286.1820.4j0j6.10.0...0.0...1ac.1.DuXoTjR3LgU#hl=en-AU&gl=au&authuser=0&tbm=nws&q=Italy That said, it is further "Proof" that our Politicians (both Liberal & Labor) are gutless & they are not pursuing our (ALL OF US) Best, Long Term interests!!! Why didn't they take the Italian line???

IMF chief Lagarde warns of disappointing global growth in 2016


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/30/imf-chief-christine-lagarde-disappointing-global-growth-economy-2016

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:06am:

As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!

You spent all those years lecturing us on PEAK OIL!!!!

how'd that work out prozac_now?

perceptions_now wrote on Dec 31^st, 2015 at 3:02pm:

I Re-post the following here, as it is relevant! perceptions_now wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 2:59pm: Apple said to pay Italy $477m in tax-avoidance deal Apple will pay Italy's tax office €318 million ($477 million) to settle a dispute over allegations it failed to pay taxes for six years, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said on Wednesday. Italian prosecutors have been investigating allegations that Apple failed to pay corporate taxes to the tune of €879 million in 2008-13 by reducing its taxable income when it booked profits generated in Italy through its Irish subsidiary, sources told Reuters earlier this year. "Apple will pay the tax agency €318 million and will sign a new tax accord for fiscal years 2015 onwards early next year," the source said. http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/apple-said-to-pay-italy-570m-in-tax-avoidance-deal-20151230-glx3yy.html ============================================= Interestingly, whilst this story has been raised on ABC TV & seems to have broken Globally some 13 hours ago, it still doesn't appear on the main Google news site! https://news.google.com.au/nwshp?hl=en&ei=t7OEVtj4FIXV0ATD_oaQDA&ved=0EKkuCAkoBw I wonder why that could be? But, if you type in Italy, then there are quite a few stories - https://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&gl=au&tbm=nws&authuser=0&q=largest+global+companys&oq=largest+global+companys&gs_l=news-cc.12..43j43i53.38968.47383.0.51320.23.10.0.13.1.0.286.1820.4j0j6.10.0...0.0...1ac.1.DuXoTjR3LgU#hl=en-AU&gl=au&authuser=0&tbm=nws&q=Italy That said, it is further "Proof" that our Politicians (both Liberal & Labor) are gutless & they are not pursuing our (ALL OF US) Best, Long Term interests!!! Why didn't they take the Italian line???

Our ultra right wing fascist Govt. prefers to make cut backs on

the most disadvantaged people:  the unemployed - the sick -

not go after the big corporations.

longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31^st, 2015 at 4:30pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:06am: As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!       You spent all those years lecturing us on PEAK OIL!!!! how'd that work out prozac_now?

As usual, Maria/Longy, your comment/s are "somewhat" restricted on Realities & concentrate on Personality abuse!

Nothing to say about the current "Realities", which I posted about?

Oh & btw, as I have said "a few times already", Peak Oil is now part of history, with standard (old & cheap Oil) Production having Peaked around 2006!

And, I have also previously said, what has been happened & what will happen, are now involves Demand, Supply & Pricing, which are & will be largely affected by Demographics.
In short, the recent Price Decline, is largely driven by Demand Decline & by a short term increase in Shale production, which is now in Decline.
There will be a competition, for some time, between Global Demand Decline, driven by Demographics, in which the "winner" will be "LOW" Oil Pricing & generally lower Commodity Pricing.
This will prevail for some time, until Shale is "priced out" & it becomes obvious that the "old Oil sources" are now in run out stage, then Oil  Pricing may start to lift again, "somewhat". 
Having sustained huge losses on Shale, it will be difficult to find new backers, willing to put money into a new Shale surge, so Shale may well NOT make a COMEBACK! 

perceptions_now wrote on Dec 31^st, 2015 at 5:41pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 4:30pm: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:06am: As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!       You spent all those years lecturing us on PEAK OIL!!!! how'd that work out prozac_now? As usual, Maria/Longy, your comment/s are "somewhat" restricted on Realities & concentrate on Personality abuse! Nothing to say about the current "Realities", which I posted about? Oh & btw, as I have said "a few times already", Peak Oil is now part of history, with standard (old & cheap Oil) Production having Peaked around 2006! And, I have also previously said, what has been happened & what will happen, are now involves Demand, Supply & Pricing, which are & will be largely affected by Demographics. In short, the recent Price Decline, is largely driven by Demand Decline & by a short term increase in Shale production, which is now in Decline. There will be a competition, for some time, between Global Demand Decline, driven by Demographics, in which the "winner" will be "LOW" Oil Pricing & generally lower Commodity Pricing. This will prevail for some time, until Shale is "priced out" & it becomes obvious that the "old Oil sources" are now in run out stage, then Oil  Pricing may start to lift again, "somewhat".  Having sustained huge losses on Shale, it will be difficult to find new backers, willing to put money into a new Shale surge, so Shale may well NOT make a COMEBACK!

In short, you are now saying that Peak OIl is not real and real all at once.

you are slippery, but most crazy people are.

you've never gotten a single prediction right yet. Today is stil NOT your day.

longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 5:41pm: longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 4:30pm: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:06am: As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!       You spent all those years lecturing us on PEAK OIL!!!! how'd that work out prozac_now? As usual, Maria/Longy, your comment/s are "somewhat" restricted on Realities & concentrate on Personality abuse! Nothing to say about the current "Realities", which I posted about? Oh & btw, as I have said "a few times already", Peak Oil is now part of history, with standard (old & cheap Oil) Production having Peaked around 2006! And, I have also previously said, what has been happened & what will happen, are now involves Demand, Supply & Pricing, which are & will be largely affected by Demographics. In short, the recent Price Decline, is largely driven by Demand Decline & by a short term increase in Shale production, which is now in Decline. There will be a competition, for some time, between Global Demand Decline, driven by Demographics, in which the "winner" will be "LOW" Oil Pricing & generally lower Commodity Pricing. This will prevail for some time, until Shale is "priced out" & it becomes obvious that the "old Oil sources" are now in run out stage, then Oil  Pricing may start to lift again, "somewhat".  Having sustained huge losses on Shale, it will be difficult to find new backers, willing to put money into a new Shale surge, so Shale may well NOT make a COMEBACK!  In short, you are now saying that Peak OIl is not real and real all at once. you are slippery, but most crazy people are. you've never gotten a single prediction right yet. Today is stil NOT your day.

Poor Longy/Maria (& a few others), your understanding of Reality is NEARLY as bad as your memory!?

I'll give "some" consideration, to assisting you there.

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 1^st, 2016 at 1:31pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 7:19pm: perceptions_now wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 5:41pm: longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 4:30pm: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:06am: As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!       You spent all those years lecturing us on PEAK OIL!!!! how'd that work out prozac_now? As usual, Maria/Longy, your comment/s are "somewhat" restricted on Realities & concentrate on Personality abuse! Nothing to say about the current "Realities", which I posted about? Oh & btw, as I have said "a few times already", Peak Oil is now part of history, with standard (old & cheap Oil) Production having Peaked around 2006! And, I have also previously said, what has been happened & what will happen, are now involves Demand, Supply & Pricing, which are & will be largely affected by Demographics. In short, the recent Price Decline, is largely driven by Demand Decline & by a short term increase in Shale production, which is now in Decline. There will be a competition, for some time, between Global Demand Decline, driven by Demographics, in which the "winner" will be "LOW" Oil Pricing & generally lower Commodity Pricing. This will prevail for some time, until Shale is "priced out" & it becomes obvious that the "old Oil sources" are now in run out stage, then Oil  Pricing may start to lift again, "somewhat".  Having sustained huge losses on Shale, it will be difficult to find new backers, willing to put money into a new Shale surge, so Shale may well NOT make a COMEBACK!  In short, you are now saying that Peak OIl is not real and real all at once. you are slippery, but most crazy people are. you've never gotten a single prediction right yet. Today is stil NOT your day. Poor Longy/Maria (& a few others), your understanding of Reality is NEARLY as bad as your memory!? I'll give "some" consideration, to assisting you there.

so no answers at all depression_now?  just the old slippery avoidance of anything of substance?  BTW I was right about peak oil and you were dead wrong.

the depressed prozac_now has run away...

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 1^st, 2016 at 1:36pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 1st, 2016 at 1:31pm: longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 7:19pm: perceptions_now wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 5:41pm: longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 4:30pm: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:06am: As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!       You spent all those years lecturing us on PEAK OIL!!!! how'd that work out prozac_now? As usual, Maria/Longy, your comment/s are "somewhat" restricted on Realities & concentrate on Personality abuse! Nothing to say about the current "Realities", which I posted about? Oh & btw, as I have said "a few times already", Peak Oil is now part of history, with standard (old & cheap Oil) Production having Peaked around 2006! And, I have also previously said, what has been happened & what will happen, are now involves Demand, Supply & Pricing, which are & will be largely affected by Demographics. In short, the recent Price Decline, is largely driven by Demand Decline & by a short term increase in Shale production, which is now in Decline. There will be a competition, for some time, between Global Demand Decline, driven by Demographics, in which the "winner" will be "LOW" Oil Pricing & generally lower Commodity Pricing. This will prevail for some time, until Shale is "priced out" & it becomes obvious that the "old Oil sources" are now in run out stage, then Oil  Pricing may start to lift again, "somewhat".  Having sustained huge losses on Shale, it will be difficult to find new backers, willing to put money into a new Shale surge, so Shale may well NOT make a COMEBACK!  In short, you are now saying that Peak OIl is not real and real all at once. you are slippery, but most crazy people are. you've never gotten a single prediction right yet. Today is stil NOT your day. Poor Longy/Maria (& a few others), your understanding of Reality is NEARLY as bad as your memory!? I'll give "some" consideration, to assisting you there. so no answers at all depression_now? just the old slippery avoidance of anything of substance?  BTW I was right about peak oil and you were dead wrong.

see the following thread, Longy/Maria & Others -
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all

According to your "Beliefs", you are always "Right"!
According to Reality, Peak Oil has already happened & History will confirm that Reality!

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2016 at 6:43pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 1st, 2016 at 1:36pm: perceptions_now wrote on Jan 1st, 2016 at 1:31pm: longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 7:19pm: perceptions_now wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 5:41pm: longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 4:30pm: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:06am: As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!       You spent all those years lecturing us on PEAK OIL!!!! how'd that work out prozac_now? As usual, Maria/Longy, your comment/s are "somewhat" restricted on Realities & concentrate on Personality abuse! Nothing to say about the current "Realities", which I posted about? Oh & btw, as I have said "a few times already", Peak Oil is now part of history, with standard (old & cheap Oil) Production having Peaked around 2006! And, I have also previously said, what has been happened & what will happen, are now involves Demand, Supply & Pricing, which are & will be largely affected by Demographics. In short, the recent Price Decline, is largely driven by Demand Decline & by a short term increase in Shale production, which is now in Decline. There will be a competition, for some time, between Global Demand Decline, driven by Demographics, in which the "winner" will be "LOW" Oil Pricing & generally lower Commodity Pricing. This will prevail for some time, until Shale is "priced out" & it becomes obvious that the "old Oil sources" are now in run out stage, then Oil  Pricing may start to lift again, "somewhat".  Having sustained huge losses on Shale, it will be difficult to find new backers, willing to put money into a new Shale surge, so Shale may well NOT make a COMEBACK!  In short, you are now saying that Peak OIl is not real and real all at once. you are slippery, but most crazy people are. you've never gotten a single prediction right yet. Today is stil NOT your day. Poor Longy/Maria (& a few others), your understanding of Reality is NEARLY as bad as your memory!? I'll give "some" consideration, to assisting you there. so no answers at all depression_now? just the old slippery avoidance of anything of substance?  BTW I was right about peak oil and you were dead wrong. see the following thread, Longy/Maria & Others - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all According to your "Beliefs", you are always "Right"! According to Reality, Peak Oil has already happened & History will confirm that Reality!

good to see that you are still the delusional wannabe 'expert' you've always been. we are in a historical GLUT of oil and yet you still think peak oil has occurred.

tell your shrink that.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 3^rd, 2016 at 8:01am:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 2nd, 2016 at 6:43pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 1st, 2016 at 1:36pm: perceptions_now wrote on Jan 1st, 2016 at 1:31pm: longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 7:19pm: perceptions_now wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 5:41pm: longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 4:30pm: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:06am: As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!       You spent all those years lecturing us on PEAK OIL!!!! how'd that work out prozac_now? As usual, Maria/Longy, your comment/s are "somewhat" restricted on Realities & concentrate on Personality abuse! Nothing to say about the current "Realities", which I posted about? Oh & btw, as I have said "a few times already", Peak Oil is now part of history, with standard (old & cheap Oil) Production having Peaked around 2006! And, I have also previously said, what has been happened & what will happen, are now involves Demand, Supply & Pricing, which are & will be largely affected by Demographics. In short, the recent Price Decline, is largely driven by Demand Decline & by a short term increase in Shale production, which is now in Decline. There will be a competition, for some time, between Global Demand Decline, driven by Demographics, in which the "winner" will be "LOW" Oil Pricing & generally lower Commodity Pricing. This will prevail for some time, until Shale is "priced out" & it becomes obvious that the "old Oil sources" are now in run out stage, then Oil  Pricing may start to lift again, "somewhat".  Having sustained huge losses on Shale, it will be difficult to find new backers, willing to put money into a new Shale surge, so Shale may well NOT make a COMEBACK!  In short, you are now saying that Peak OIl is not real and real all at once. you are slippery, but most crazy people are. you've never gotten a single prediction right yet. Today is stil NOT your day. Poor Longy/Maria (& a few others), your understanding of Reality is NEARLY as bad as your memory!? I'll give "some" consideration, to assisting you there. so no answers at all depression_now? just the old slippery avoidance of anything of substance?  BTW I was right about peak oil and you were dead wrong. see the following thread, Longy/Maria & Others - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all According to your "Beliefs", you are always "Right"! According to Reality, Peak Oil has already happened & History will confirm that Reality! good to see that you are still the delusional wannabe 'expert' you've always been. we are in a historical GLUT of oil and yet you still think peak oil has occurred. tell your shrink that.

And, that is your belief, as usual with nothing to back it up!

In fact, "old Oil" has Peaked, But shale Production did push overall Production slightly higher, for a limited time & now that the Price has hit the skids, so too has the Shale Oil Production!
However, the Oil Price hit the skids MAINLY due to Demand Decline! The fact is most countries Oil Demand is in Decline, as are their Real Economies.
The reason most countries haven't yet collapsed again, is the massive Stimulus programs raised in the US, Europe, China & many other countries, which also raised Debt levels, which are now overstretched & I suggest will finally break, THIS YEAR!
Finally, if your look at the facts, which are available, then you would find Oil Consumption did actually increase globally between 2007-2014, But almost all of that rise came via China, which has also started to Decline since 2014.
This info is readily available, TO ANYONE WHO WANTS TO LOOK BEYOND THEIR OWN BELIEFS!


Finally, I note you don't seem to have the answer to the basic query raised on the following thread -
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 3^rd, 2016 at 11:51am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 3rd, 2016 at 8:01am: perceptions_now wrote on Jan 2nd, 2016 at 6:43pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 1st, 2016 at 1:36pm: perceptions_now wrote on Jan 1st, 2016 at 1:31pm: longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 7:19pm: perceptions_now wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 5:41pm: longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 4:30pm: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:06am: As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!       You spent all those years lecturing us on PEAK OIL!!!! how'd that work out prozac_now? As usual, Maria/Longy, your comment/s are "somewhat" restricted on Realities & concentrate on Personality abuse! Nothing to say about the current "Realities", which I posted about? Oh & btw, as I have said "a few times already", Peak Oil is now part of history, with standard (old & cheap Oil) Production having Peaked around 2006! And, I have also previously said, what has been happened & what will happen, are now involves Demand, Supply & Pricing, which are & will be largely affected by Demographics. In short, the recent Price Decline, is largely driven by Demand Decline & by a short term increase in Shale production, which is now in Decline. There will be a competition, for some time, between Global Demand Decline, driven by Demographics, in which the "winner" will be "LOW" Oil Pricing & generally lower Commodity Pricing. This will prevail for some time, until Shale is "priced out" & it becomes obvious that the "old Oil sources" are now in run out stage, then Oil  Pricing may start to lift again, "somewhat".  Having sustained huge losses on Shale, it will be difficult to find new backers, willing to put money into a new Shale surge, so Shale may well NOT make a COMEBACK!  In short, you are now saying that Peak OIl is not real and real all at once. you are slippery, but most crazy people are. you've never gotten a single prediction right yet. Today is stil NOT your day. Poor Longy/Maria (& a few others), your understanding of Reality is NEARLY as bad as your memory!? I'll give "some" consideration, to assisting you there. so no answers at all depression_now? just the old slippery avoidance of anything of substance?  BTW I was right about peak oil and you were dead wrong. see the following thread, Longy/Maria & Others - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all According to your "Beliefs", you are always "Right"! According to Reality, Peak Oil has already happened & History will confirm that Reality! good to see that you are still the delusional wannabe 'expert' you've always been. we are in a historical GLUT of oil and yet you still think peak oil has occurred. tell your shrink that. And, that is your belief, as usual with nothing to back it up! In fact, "old Oil" has Peaked, But shale Production did push overall Production slightly higher, for a limited time & now that the Price has hit the skids, so too has the Shale Oil Production! However, the Oil Price hit the skids MAINLY due to Demand Decline! The fact is most countries Oil Demand is in Decline, as are their Real Economies. The reason most countries haven't yet collapsed again, is the massive Stimulus programs raised in the US, Europe, China & many other countries, which also raised Debt levels, which are now overstretched & I suggest will finally break, THIS YEAR! Finally, if your look at the facts, which are available, then you would find Oil Consumption did actually increase globally between 2007-2014, But almost all of that rise came via China, which has also started to Decline since 2014. This info is readily available, TO ANYONE WHO WANTS TO LOOK BEYOND THEIR OWN BELIEFS! Finally, I note you don't seem to have the answer to the basic query raised on the following thread - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all

so it isnt PEAK OIL anymore, it is OLD peak Oil???  what a dope. we have a massive glut of oil at the moment due to massive reserves and nothing even like a 'peak' coming. 

you are such a pessimist and yet, you are NEVER RIGHT.  you are chicken little on economics predicting doom and gloom each and eveyr years and being repeatedly wrong.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 3^rd, 2016 at 6:13pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 3rd, 2016 at 11:51am: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 3rd, 2016 at 8:01am: perceptions_now wrote on Jan 2nd, 2016 at 6:43pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 1st, 2016 at 1:36pm: perceptions_now wrote on Jan 1st, 2016 at 1:31pm: longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 7:19pm: perceptions_now wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 5:41pm: longweekend58 wrote on Dec 31st, 2015 at 4:30pm: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2013 at 11:06am: As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!       You spent all those years lecturing us on PEAK OIL!!!! how'd that work out prozac_now? As usual, Maria/Longy, your comment/s are "somewhat" restricted on Realities & concentrate on Personality abuse! Nothing to say about the current "Realities", which I posted about? Oh & btw, as I have said "a few times already", Peak Oil is now part of history, with standard (old & cheap Oil) Production having Peaked around 2006! And, I have also previously said, what has been happened & what will happen, are now involves Demand, Supply & Pricing, which are & will be largely affected by Demographics. In short, the recent Price Decline, is largely driven by Demand Decline & by a short term increase in Shale production, which is now in Decline. There will be a competition, for some time, between Global Demand Decline, driven by Demographics, in which the "winner" will be "LOW" Oil Pricing & generally lower Commodity Pricing. This will prevail for some time, until Shale is "priced out" & it becomes obvious that the "old Oil sources" are now in run out stage, then Oil  Pricing may start to lift again, "somewhat".  Having sustained huge losses on Shale, it will be difficult to find new backers, willing to put money into a new Shale surge, so Shale may well NOT make a COMEBACK!  In short, you are now saying that Peak OIl is not real and real all at once. you are slippery, but most crazy people are. you've never gotten a single prediction right yet. Today is stil NOT your day. Poor Longy/Maria (& a few others), your understanding of Reality is NEARLY as bad as your memory!? I'll give "some" consideration, to assisting you there. so no answers at all depression_now? just the old slippery avoidance of anything of substance?  BTW I was right about peak oil and you were dead wrong. see the following thread, Longy/Maria & Others - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all According to your "Beliefs", you are always "Right"! According to Reality, Peak Oil has already happened & History will confirm that Reality! good to see that you are still the delusional wannabe 'expert' you've always been. we are in a historical GLUT of oil and yet you still think peak oil has occurred. tell your shrink that. And, that is your belief, as usual with nothing to back it up! In fact, "old Oil" has Peaked, But shale Production did push overall Production slightly higher, for a limited time & now that the Price has hit the skids, so too has the Shale Oil Production! However, the Oil Price hit the skids MAINLY due to Demand Decline! The fact is most countries Oil Demand is in Decline, as are their Real Economies. The reason most countries haven't yet collapsed again, is the massive Stimulus programs raised in the US, Europe, China & many other countries, which also raised Debt levels, which are now overstretched & I suggest will finally break, THIS YEAR! Finally, if your look at the facts, which are available, then you would find Oil Consumption did actually increase globally between 2007-2014, But almost all of that rise came via China, which has also started to Decline since 2014. This info is readily available, TO ANYONE WHO WANTS TO LOOK BEYOND THEIR OWN BELIEFS! Finally, I note you don't seem to have the answer to the basic query raised on the following thread - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all so it isnt PEAK OIL anymore, it is OLD peak Oil???  what a dope. we have a massive glut of oil at the moment due to massive reserves and nothing even like a 'peak' coming.  you are such a pessimist and yet, you are NEVER RIGHT.  you are chicken little on economics predicting doom and gloom each and eveyr years and being repeatedly wrong.

Well Longy/Maria,
your comprehension still hasn't improved, your lack of proof is still consistent.
Anyway, as I said, History will confirm Peak Oil has already happened!

Oh & I note you still haven't answered the basic query raised on the following thread -
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all
Probably, because you have no idea about what is affecting basic Global Economics!

you really should join the climate crowd prozac_now.  you have the perfect 'logic' set up already.  peak oil - where production is insufficient to meet demand - has already occured?  that is why we have a massive GLUT of oil now?

sometimes I think you are insane. then there are moments like this where doubt is removed.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 4^th, 2016 at 7:31am:

you really should join the climate crowd prozac_now.  you have the perfect 'logic' set up already.  peak oil - where production is insufficient to meet demand - has already occured?  that is why we have a massive GLUT of oil now? sometimes I think you are insane. then there are moments like this where doubt is removed.

As previously stated, that is your “belief” and as usual, there is nothing to back it up!

Also, as previously stated, "old Oil" has Peaked, But shale Production in the USA did push overall Production slightly higher, for a limited time & now that the Price has hit the skids, so too has the Shale Oil Production!

However, the Oil Price hit the skids MAINLY due to Demand Decline, particularly Demand (or lack of it) in the USA & Europe! The fact is most countries Oil Demand is in Decline, as are their Real Economies.
The reason most countries haven't yet collapsed again, is the massive Stimulus programs raised in the US, Europe, China & many other countries, which also raised Debt levels, which are now overstretched & I suggest will finally break, THIS YEAR!


Finally, if your look at the facts (which you don’t because you have your beliefs), which are readily available, then you would find Oil Consumption did actually increase globally between 2007-2014, But almost all of that rise came via China, which has also started to Decline since 2014.

In fact, following apply (Thousand Barrels Per Day) – Latest figures available are either 2013 or 2014
Country/Region                         Consumption
USA                                           2005 (Peaked) – 20,802  ; 2013 – 18,961
Europe                                       2005 (Peaked)- 16,404   ; 2013 – 14,296
China                                         2005               - 6,795     ; 2013 – 10,480
Middle East                                2005               - 5,988     ; 2013 – 8,083
Global                                        2005               - 84,588   ; 2013 – 91,195
Australia                                    2005                - 964       ; 2014 – 1,080   

Country/Region                     Production
USA                                           Initially Peaked 1985 – 11,192, then fell to 8316 in 2006, before hitting 14,021 in 2014 -it is now again in Decline mode, as Shale slows
Europe                                       1999 (Peaked)- 7,295     ; 2014 – 3,870
China                                         2005               - 3,812     ; 2014 – 4,598
Middle East                                2005               - 26,092   ; 2014 – 27,836
Global                                        2005               - 85,099   ; 2013 – 93,021
Australia                                     2000 (Peaked) – 828     ; 2014 - 473

Again as previously stated, this info is readily available, TO ANYONE WHO WANTS TO LOOK BEYOND THEIR OWN BELIEFS!

Finally Longy/Maria, I note you don't seem to have the answer to the basic query raised on the following thread -
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all

You cant have Peak Oil without a PEAK!  Shale oil might confuse you but the fact is that demand has always been exceeded by supply ergo NEVER been at a peak.  the current drop of shale production is not peak oil either since it is a response to demand via price signalling.  STILL NOT A PEAK. Peak Oil is where demand exceeds the ability to supply and for the long term, something that has NEVER happened.


bottom line is YOU WERE WRONG.  there has never been peak oil nor was there ever going to be.  you let your negativity and depression rule your thinking entirely.

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 4^th, 2016 at 2:58pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 4th, 2016 at 7:31am: you really should join the climate crowd prozac_now.  you have the perfect 'logic' set up already.  peak oil - where production is insufficient to meet demand - has already occured?  that is why we have a massive GLUT of oil now? sometimes I think you are insane. then there are moments like this where doubt is removed. As previously stated, that is your “belief” and as usual, there is nothing to back it up! Also, as previously stated, "old Oil" has Peaked, But shale Production in the USA did push overall Production slightly higher, for a limited time & now that the Price has hit the skids, so too has the Shale Oil Production! However, the Oil Price hit the skids MAINLY due to Demand Decline, particularly Demand (or lack of it) in the USA & Europe! The fact is most countries Oil Demand is in Decline, as are their Real Economies. The reason most countries haven't yet collapsed again, is the massive Stimulus programs raised in the US, Europe, China & many other countries, which also raised Debt levels, which are now overstretched & I suggest will finally break, THIS YEAR! Finally, if your look at the facts (which you don’t because you have your beliefs), which are readily available, then you would find Oil Consumption did actually increase globally between 2007-2014, But almost all of that rise came via China, which has also started to Decline since 2014. In fact, following apply (Thousand Barrels Per Day) – Latest figures available are either 2013 or 2014 Country/Region                         Consumption USA                                           2005 (Peaked) – 20,802  ; 2013 – 18,961 Europe                                       2005 (Peaked)- 16,404   ; 2013 – 14,296 China                                         2005               - 6,795     ; 2013 – 10,480 Middle East                                2005               - 5,988     ; 2013 – 8,083 Global                                        2005               - 84,588   ; 2013 – 91,195 Australia                                    2005                - 964       ; 2014 – 1,080    Country/Region                     Production USA                                           Initially Peaked 1985 – 11,192, then fell to 8316 in 2006, before hitting 14,021 in 2014 -it is now again in Decline mode, as Shale slows Europe                                       1999 (Peaked)- 7,295     ; 2014 – 3,870 China                                         2005               - 3,812     ; 2014 – 4,598 Middle East                                2005               - 26,092   ; 2014 – 27,836 Global                                        2005               - 85,099   ; 2013 – 93,021 Australia                                     2000 (Peaked) – 828     ; 2014 - 473 Again as previously stated, this info is readily available, TO ANYONE WHO WANTS TO LOOK BEYOND THEIR OWN BELIEFS! Finally Longy/Maria, I note you don't seem to have the answer to the basic query raised on the following thread - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all

Peak Oil is not PEAK PRODUCTION, you goose.  google the meaning since you apparently dont trust any source than your own delusions.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 4^th, 2016 at 5:50pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 4th, 2016 at 2:58pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 4th, 2016 at 7:31am: you really should join the climate crowd prozac_now.  you have the perfect 'logic' set up already.  peak oil - where production is insufficient to meet demand - has already occured?  that is why we have a massive GLUT of oil now? sometimes I think you are insane. then there are moments like this where doubt is removed. As previously stated, that is your “belief” and as usual, there is nothing to back it up! Also, as previously stated, "old Oil" has Peaked, But shale Production in the USA did push overall Production slightly higher, for a limited time & now that the Price has hit the skids, so too has the Shale Oil Production! However, the Oil Price hit the skids MAINLY due to Demand Decline, particularly Demand (or lack of it) in the USA & Europe! The fact is most countries Oil Demand is in Decline, as are their Real Economies. The reason most countries haven't yet collapsed again, is the massive Stimulus programs raised in the US, Europe, China & many other countries, which also raised Debt levels, which are now overstretched & I suggest will finally break, THIS YEAR! Finally, if your look at the facts (which you don’t because you have your beliefs), which are readily available, then you would find Oil Consumption did actually increase globally between 2007-2014, But almost all of that rise came via China, which has also started to Decline since 2014. In fact, following apply (Thousand Barrels Per Day) – Latest figures available are either 2013 or 2014 Country/Region                         Consumption USA                                           2005 (Peaked) – 20,802  ; 2013 – 18,961 Europe                                       2005 (Peaked)- 16,404   ; 2013 – 14,296 China                                         2005               - 6,795     ; 2013 – 10,480 Middle East                                2005               - 5,988     ; 2013 – 8,083 Global                                        2005               - 84,588   ; 2013 – 91,195 Australia                                    2005                - 964       ; 2014 – 1,080    Country/Region                     Production USA                                           Initially Peaked 1985 – 11,192, then fell to 8316 in 2006, before hitting 14,021 in 2014 -it is now again in Decline mode, as Shale slows Europe                                       1999 (Peaked)- 7,295     ; 2014 – 3,870 China                                         2005               - 3,812     ; 2014 – 4,598 Middle East                                2005               - 26,092   ; 2014 – 27,836 Global                                        2005               - 85,099   ; 2013 – 93,021 Australia                                     2000 (Peaked) – 828     ; 2014 - 473 Again as previously stated, this info is readily available, TO ANYONE WHO WANTS TO LOOK BEYOND THEIR OWN BELIEFS! Finally Longy/Maria, I note you don't seem to have the answer to the basic query raised on the following thread - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all Peak Oil is not PEAK PRODUCTION, you goose.  google the meaning since you apparently dont trust any source than your own delusions.

1) I did supply data, which is more than you ever do and I gave Both Production & Consumption

2) You obviously don't even take your own advice -
https://www.google.com.au/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=peak+oil
Try Wiki, for a starter -
Peak oil, an event based on M. King Hubbert's theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline.[1] Peak oil theory is based on the observed rise, peak, fall, and depletion of aggregate production rate in oil fields over time. It is often confused with oil depletion; however, peak oil is the point of maximum production, while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply.


Finally,  I note you still haven't answered to the basic query raised on the following thread -
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all

Most Likely , because "you have no idea what's it's about", NOR do you have any idea what is happening currently, in Global Economics, nor do you have any idea WHY it's happening!

Yeh I noticed that when some people get it wrong, they rarely, if at all, admit to it. 

Not a sign of maturity and sadly shows why one should put less consideration into their posts.  After all, if they can't reflect or fix their mistakes, how does one expect any posts can't have the same misconceptions/errors/etc?

poor old prozac_now.  forever predicting doom gloom, recession and peak oil while being 100% wrong every single time.

must suck to be you.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 5^th, 2016 at 4:24pm:

poor old prozac_now.  forever predicting doom gloom, recession and peak oil while being 100% wrong every single time. must suck to be you.

Well , well Longy/Maria, talk about being wrong!
As I said, YOU obviously don't even take your own advice -
https://www.google.com.au/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=...
Try Wiki, for a starter -
Peak oil, an event based on M. King Hubbert's theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline.[1] Peak oil theory is based on the observed rise, peak, fall, and depletion of aggregate production rate in oil fields over time. It is often confused with oil depletion; however, peak oil is the point of maximum production, while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply.


I think that means, YOU ARE WRONG, this time & pretty much every other time & on pretty much every topic!

Finally,  I note you still haven't answered to the basic query raised on the following thread -
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all

WHY? Well, because "you have no idea what's it's about", NOR do you have any idea what is happening currently, in Global Economics, nor do you have any idea WHY it's happening!

Oh & on "Recession", you may not have noticed the GFC AND YOU WILL SOON SEE GFC2, which is likely to be "somewhat worse than the first!

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 5^th, 2016 at 9:47pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 5th, 2016 at 4:24pm: poor old prozac_now.  forever predicting doom gloom, recession and peak oil while being 100% wrong every single time. must suck to be you. Well , well Longy/Maria, talk about being wrong! As I said, YOU obviously don't even take your own advice - https://www.google.com.au/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=... Try Wiki, for a starter - Peak oil, an event based on M. King Hubbert's theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline.[1] Peak oil theory is based on the observed rise, peak, fall, and depletion of aggregate production rate in oil fields over time. It is often confused with oil depletion; however, peak oil is the point of maximum production, while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply. I think that means, YOU ARE WRONG, this time & pretty much every other time & on pretty much every topic! Finally,  I note you still haven't answered to the basic query raised on the following thread - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all WHY? Well, because "you have no idea what's it's about", NOR do you have any idea what is happening currently, in Global Economics, nor do you have any idea WHY it's happening! Oh & on "Recession", you may not have noticed the GFC AND YOU WILL SOON SEE GFC2, which is likely to be "somewhat worse than the first!

you have spent years (decades even) predicting the demise of the oil-based economy because we will 'run out of oil'.  call it what you want, but you were dead wrong.

you are just as wrong about everything else as well.

We WILL run out of oil.........

http://www.oildecline.com/

http://www.oildecline.com/images/peak.jpg

The thing about decline in oil fuel production is that as the supply goes down, the ability to move that supply goes down with it...... hence there will begin to appear 'brown-outs' of petroleum product availability, followed by ever-increasing 'black-outs'.... until finally there is scarcely a flicker of movement of petroleum products worldwide.....

At this time, it is not necessarily the production of petroleum products per se that is the issue - it is that movement within a market - and bear in mind that the prime issue with The Great Depression was NOT any inability to produce goods - but the inability due to economic factors such as income imbalances - to actually MOVE those goods in the economy.

When too many people simply cannot buy goods, those goods do not MOVE in the economy - and thus that economy, when a larger and larger number of people are unable to buy and thus move goods - slides into depression.

Any further arguments about Sunday penalty rates?

Anyway - as petroleum production declines, that inability to move it within its market will slow down, and that affects virtually every facet of modern society.

Along Ye Olde Mountaine Traile one Darke Nighte When The Stars Are Big And Bright... around Ye Campfire....

"Ah, yes, lad - I recalls it clear as yestiddie - them big coloured birds what flew five miles high an' carried 500 people at 500 MILES an hour - tha's 800 kilometres fer you young folk... yeah there wuz plenty of 'em up there, day an' night. Now git some sleep - we need ter make another five mile tomorrah an' the horses is gettin' tired!"

Grappler Deep State Feller wrote on Jan 6^th, 2016 at 8:36am:

We WILL run out of oil......... http://www.oildecline.com/ http://www.oildecline.com/images/peak.jpg

The problem with your grpah is that it is out of datae. In fact, ALL of the predicted decline is just that - prediction - and was created prior to the emergence of the shale oil industry which has rendered all such prediction total garbage. IN fact, at the moment, production is limited by DEMAND only, not the shortage of supply.

peak oil is like climate change - a fabricated con designed to suck in gullible fools.

Every graph you'll find says much the same predicted path - the inevitability is that oil production will slow and then trickle, and that at some future point the whole world economy will grind to a halt, and millions will perish.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 6^th, 2016 at 8:27am:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 5th, 2016 at 9:47pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 5th, 2016 at 4:24pm: poor old prozac_now.  forever predicting doom gloom, recession and peak oil while being 100% wrong every single time. must suck to be you. Well , well Longy/Maria, talk about being wrong! As I said, YOU obviously don't even take your own advice - https://www.google.com.au/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=... Try Wiki, for a starter - Peak oil, an event based on M. King Hubbert's theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline.[1] Peak oil theory is based on the observed rise, peak, fall, and depletion of aggregate production rate in oil fields over time. It is often confused with oil depletion; however, peak oil is the point of maximum production, while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply. I think that means, YOU ARE WRONG, this time & pretty much every other time & on pretty much every topic! Finally,  I note you still haven't answered to the basic query raised on the following thread - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all WHY? Well, because "you have no idea what's it's about", NOR do you have any idea what is happening currently, in Global Economics, nor do you have any idea WHY it's happening! Oh & on "Recession", you may not have noticed the GFC AND YOU WILL SOON SEE GFC2, which is likely to be "somewhat worse than the first! you have spent years (decades even) predicting the demise of the oil-based economy because we will 'run out of oil'.  call it what you want, but you were dead wrong. you are just as wrong about everything else as well.

It is indeed fortunate, for YOU, that you have YOUR BELIEFS, as REALITY SAYS YOU ARE WRONG, as does the very occasional bit of "so called proof" that you raise!

Btw, I researched & then wrote about the likely effects of Demographics & Peak Oil in late 2006.
In writing about the likely effects, I said -
1) There would soon be a Global Recession, which there was, starting in 2007-2008.
2) The Price of Oil would initially rise significantly, due to the effects of Peak Oil, before going into steep Decline, due to a Global Demand Decline, before eventually rising again, as Oil Production would finally slow so much that it would catch up to & pass the Global Demand Decline.
Shale Oil, as has been seen, WAS only a TEMPORARY aberration!!!

Finally,  I note you still haven't answered to the basic query raised on the following thread -
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all
WHY? Well, because "you have no idea what's it's about", NOR do you have any idea what is happening currently, in Global Economics, nor do you have any idea WHY it's happening!

Oh & on "Recession", you may not have noticed the GFC AND YOU WILL SOON SEE GFC2, which is likely to be "somewhat worse than the first!

Oh & Btw, THE REALITY of all of this Global -
Demographics
Energy
Climate Change
Debt & More

Is that OZ POLITICIANS (ALL OF THEM), no matter what they say, which hasn't been much on these issues, CAN NOT NOW WAVE A "MAGIC WAND" & make the OZ Economy Grow again, like it used to!

So, IF any Politician &/or their "Supporters" say THEY CAN, you will know they are telling MORE PORKIES!

In Fact, there will be quite a bit of pain, including Economic pain and the only way to avoid the worst outcomes will be IF ALL SECTORS BEAR THEIR FAIR SHARE OF THE PAIN & ACTION is commenced NOW, on all of the above Global/Local REALITIES!!!

All of which means -
1) Business, particularly BIG Business MUST carry their "fair share of Taxes", which means the Politicians MUST DO THEIR JOB, for a change, as must most of the Global Pollies.
2) Individuals can expect changes to Super Loopholes & Government Expenditures!
3) Even Religious owned Businesses, MUST pay their fair share of Tax, which means the Religion/s only get to keep the "After Tax", NOT "before Tax Profit/s.
4) AND MORE!!!

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 6^th, 2016 at 12:04pm:

So, IF any Politician &/or their "Supporters" say THEY CAN, you will know they are telling MORE PORKIES!

Porkies such as: "There's never been a better time to be an Australian"

Grappler Deep State Feller wrote on Jan 6^th, 2016 at 9:56am:

Every graph you'll find says much the same predicted path - the inevitability is that oil production will slow and then trickle, and that at some future point the whole world economy will grind to a halt, and millions will perish.

every graph made before the advent of shale oil which TRIPLES current reserves.  and then there are a few conventional oil reserves being discovered as well. It is well known that Siberia contains reserves that dwarf saudi arabia and new technology will soon make that viable as well.


alas... peak oil is a bit like climate change.  A con for the gullible.  And it sure has hooked you and depression_now.

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 6^th, 2016 at 12:04pm:

Oh & Btw, THE REALITY of all of this Global - Demographics Energy Climate Change Debt & More Is that OZ POLITICIANS (ALL OF THEM), no matter what they say, which hasn't been much on these issues, CAN NOT NOW WAVE A "MAGIC WAND" & make the OZ Economy Grow again, like it used to! So, IF any Politician &/or their "Supporters" say THEY CAN, you will know they are telling MORE PORKIES! In Fact, there will be quite a bit of pain, including Economic pain and the only way to avoid the worst outcomes will be IF ALL SECTORS BEAR THEIR FAIR SHARE OF THE PAIN & ACTION is commenced NOW, on all of the above Global/Local REALITIES!!! All of which means - 1) Business, particularly BIG Business MUST carry their "fair share of Taxes", which means the Politicians MUST DO THEIR JOB, for a change, as must most of the Global Pollies. 2) Individuals can expect changes to Super Loopholes & Government Expenditures! 3) Even Religious owned Businesses, MUST pay their fair share of Tax, which means the Religion/s only get to keep the "After Tax", NOT "before Tax Profit/s. 4) AND MORE!!!

rant rant rant


it is all you ever do.


your medication isnt working.

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 6^th, 2016 at 10:07am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 6th, 2016 at 8:27am: perceptions_now wrote on Jan 5th, 2016 at 9:47pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 5th, 2016 at 4:24pm: poor old prozac_now.  forever predicting doom gloom, recession and peak oil while being 100% wrong every single time. must suck to be you. Well , well Longy/Maria, talk about being wrong! As I said, YOU obviously don't even take your own advice - https://www.google.com.au/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=... Try Wiki, for a starter - Peak oil, an event based on M. King Hubbert's theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline.[1] Peak oil theory is based on the observed rise, peak, fall, and depletion of aggregate production rate in oil fields over time. It is often confused with oil depletion; however, peak oil is the point of maximum production, while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply. I think that means, YOU ARE WRONG, this time & pretty much every other time & on pretty much every topic! Finally,  I note you still haven't answered to the basic query raised on the following thread - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all WHY? Well, because "you have no idea what's it's about", NOR do you have any idea what is happening currently, in Global Economics, nor do you have any idea WHY it's happening! Oh & on "Recession", you may not have noticed the GFC AND YOU WILL SOON SEE GFC2, which is likely to be "somewhat worse than the first! you have spent years (decades even) predicting the demise of the oil-based economy because we will 'run out of oil'.  call it what you want, but you were dead wrong. you are just as wrong about everything else as well. It is indeed fortunate, for YOU, that you have YOUR BELIEFS, as REALITY SAYS YOU ARE WRONG, as does the very occasional bit of "so called proof" that you raise! Btw, I researched & then wrote about the likely effects of Demographics & Peak Oil in late 2006. In writing about the likely effects, I said - 1) There would soon be a Global Recession, which there was, starting in 2007-2008. 2) The Price of Oil would initially rise significantly, due to the effects of Peak Oil, before going into steep Decline, due to a Global Demand Decline, before eventually rising again, as Oil Production would finally slow so much that it would catch up to & pass the Global Demand Decline. Shale Oil, as has been seen, WAS only a TEMPORARY aberration!!! Finally,  I note you still haven't answered to the basic query raised on the following thread - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all WHY? Well, because "you have no idea what's it's about", NOR do you have any idea what is happening currently, in Global Economics, nor do you have any idea WHY it's happening! Oh & on "Recession", you may not have noticed the GFC AND YOU WILL SOON SEE GFC2, which is likely to be "somewhat worse than the first!

Shale oil is a 'temporary abberration'?  there would be very few experts agreeing with you on that. Oil is THE PRODUCT that the world economy drives on. solar cells and wind towers dont power ships, cars or planes.  That is all done by oil and will be for a very very long time because of its extraordinary energy/kg feature.  shale oil has turned USA and Canada from importers into EXPORTERS of oil.  the southern ocean is beleived to contain more oil than the entire saude oil fieds and siberia even more.

there is no shortage of oil. never was, never will be for several centuries.  there are MASSIVE amounts of oil to be found.

half the economists in the world were predicting the GFC you dope.


get over it. you have been dead wrong on peak oil, so far wrong that your embarrassment would be total if not for your delusions.

It's all estimates and maybes, Longy.... a conservative view would be that there is what we see now, not what we think we might see in ten years.

Grappler Deep State Feller wrote on Jan 6^th, 2016 at 3:39pm:

It's all estimates and maybes, Longy.... a conservative view would be that there is what we see now, not what we think we might see in ten years.

that would actually be the ignorant, idiotic 'view.  forward planning is the stuff of economic planning and growth.  You could always confer with your second cousin, the head of the US Federal REserve.  or is that your nephew?

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 6^th, 2016 at 3:32pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 6th, 2016 at 10:07am: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 6th, 2016 at 8:27am: perceptions_now wrote on Jan 5th, 2016 at 9:47pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 5th, 2016 at 4:24pm: poor old prozac_now.  forever predicting doom gloom, recession and peak oil while being 100% wrong every single time. must suck to be you. Well , well Longy/Maria, talk about being wrong! As I said, YOU obviously don't even take your own advice - https://www.google.com.au/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=... Try Wiki, for a starter - Peak oil, an event based on M. King Hubbert's theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline.[1] Peak oil theory is based on the observed rise, peak, fall, and depletion of aggregate production rate in oil fields over time. It is often confused with oil depletion; however, peak oil is the point of maximum production, while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply. I think that means, YOU ARE WRONG, this time & pretty much every other time & on pretty much every topic! Finally,  I note you still haven't answered to the basic query raised on the following thread - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all WHY? Well, because "you have no idea what's it's about", NOR do you have any idea what is happening currently, in Global Economics, nor do you have any idea WHY it's happening! Oh & on "Recession", you may not have noticed the GFC AND YOU WILL SOON SEE GFC2, which is likely to be "somewhat worse than the first! you have spent years (decades even) predicting the demise of the oil-based economy because we will 'run out of oil'.  call it what you want, but you were dead wrong. you are just as wrong about everything else as well. It is indeed fortunate, for YOU, that you have YOUR BELIEFS, as REALITY SAYS YOU ARE WRONG, as does the very occasional bit of "so called proof" that you raise! Btw, I researched & then wrote about the likely effects of Demographics & Peak Oil in late 2006. In writing about the likely effects, I said - 1) There would soon be a Global Recession, which there was, starting in 2007-2008. 2) The Price of Oil would initially rise significantly, due to the effects of Peak Oil, before going into steep Decline, due to a Global Demand Decline, before eventually rising again, as Oil Production would finally slow so much that it would catch up to & pass the Global Demand Decline. Shale Oil, as has been seen, WAS only a TEMPORARY aberration!!! Finally,  I note you still haven't answered to the basic query raised on the following thread - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all WHY? Well, because "you have no idea what's it's about", NOR do you have any idea what is happening currently, in Global Economics, nor do you have any idea WHY it's happening! Oh & on "Recession", you may not have noticed the GFC AND YOU WILL SOON SEE GFC2, which is likely to be "somewhat worse than the first! Shale oil is a 'temporary abberration'?  there would be very few experts agreeing with you on that. Oil is THE PRODUCT that the world economy drives on. solar cells and wind towers dont power ships, cars or planes.  That is all done by oil and will be for a very very long time because of its extraordinary energy/kg feature.  shale oil has turned USA and Canada from importers into EXPORTERS of oil.  the southern ocean is beleived to contain more oil than the entire saude oil fieds and siberia even more. there is no shortage of oil. never was, never will be for several centuries.  there are MASSIVE amounts of oil to be found. half the economists in the world were predicting the GFC you dope. get over it. you have been dead wrong on peak oil, so far wrong that your embarrassment would be total if not for your delusions.

As usual Longy/Maria, I'm the one that's always Wrong & never Right, But my Predictions on the GFC & Oil Pricing come true & your Peak Oil "proof" actually verifies what I am saying.

AND, I note you still haven't answered to the basic query raised on the following thread -
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1451723678/all
WHY? Well, because "you have no idea what's it's about", NOR do you have any idea what is happening currently, in Global Economics, nor do you have any idea WHY it's happening!

Shale Oil in the US is "Dead & Buried", forget it!
With likely massive financial losses, from the recent Shale splurge, it will be a long time before Financial markets take on the Shale market again!
As for shale oil turning the USA away from importing & into Exporting, You MAY be interested in the following article -
After Years of Decline, U.S. Oil Imports Rise
http://www.wsj.com/articles/after-years-of-decline-u-s-oil-imports-rise-1445851800

Oh & Btw, very few Economists & even fewer Politicians predicted the GFC, YOU ARE WRONG YET AGAIN!

STRANGE HOW YOUR BELIEFS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH REALITY!!!

I Re-post the following here, as it is relevant -


perceptions_now wrote on Jan 6^th, 2016 at 10:59pm:

Wti Oil is currently trading Down some 3.5% today & is currently under $35, at $34.66. The above is an 11 year low and in my opinion, the major causes being Global Demand Decline & a rising US$, currently at 99.33 on the US$ index, which is up several cents over the last couple of days. The likely causes of the US$ rise, are Declining Global Economic conditions & news out of North Korea today! Oh & US DOW Futures are currently Down over 300 points (some 1.75%), indicating it may be another interesting night???

you really are a bizarre weirdo depression_now.  you spent years shouting about how we are all going to run out of oil... starting with 2010.  yeah that worked out well!

and here we are with the biggest oil glut in history.  this is your 'peak oil' with more oil than you can shake a stick at.

I was right... again.  but most people will be right when they shake off chronic depression and delusions.