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http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl Member Run Boards >> Environment >> Lindzen's Track record in temperature predictions http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1380528644 Message started by muso on Sep 30^th, 2013 at 6:10pm

Title: Lindzen's Track record in temperature predictions
Post by muso on Sep 30^th, 2013 at 6:10pm

Richard Lindzen is one of the few denialists who is actually qualified to talk about the science.

The denialist blogs love him and extol his virtues with headlines such as :

Quote:

New paper confirms findings of Lindzen & Spencer of very low climate sensitivity to CO2 — Paper under review for Earth System Dynamics

Now remember that this was the same Richard Linzen who said this in 2011:

Quote:

The models do say you should have seen 2-5 times more than you've already seen, you know, you have to then accept, if you believe the models, that you actually should have gotten far more warming than you've seen, but some mysterious process has cancelled part of it

So let's look at his track record as compared to James Hansen (observed temperature in black - Lindzen's predictions are the bottom two):

Hmmm "Not very good" sums it up.

Hansen88vsLindzen99_all.png (93 KB | 36 )

Title: Re: Lindzen's Track record in temperature predictions
Post by Chimp_Logic on Sep 30^th, 2013 at 6:22pm

excellent graph muso

Title: Re: Lindzen's Track record in temperature predictions
Post by Ajax on Oct 1^st, 2013 at 1:39pm

muso its a well known fact that even alamists are now saying the models were of.

Its because we have had no increase in temperature since 1998.

The IPCC predicted in 1990 that the warming would be (to be fair I have chosen their lowest prediction) at the very least 0.2 celcius per decade.

And for the last 15 years we have had 0.05 celcius per decade.

You remember making fun of me when I posted that the IPCC its head and the MET office agreed that global warming has stalled right......???????

So was Lindzen right or wrong.......about the models......?????

Let’s quote the IPCC Prediction:
“

Quote:

“If emissions follow a Business-as-usual pattern

Under the IPCC Business as Usual emissions of greenhouse gases the average rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century is estimated to be 0.3C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2C – 0.5C)” [IPCC FAR summary]

Title: Re: Lindzen's Track record in temperature predictions
Post by muso on Oct 1^st, 2013 at 4:59pm

Ajax wrote on Oct 1^st, 2013 at 1:39pm:

You remember making fun of me when I posted that the IPCC its head and the MET office agreed that global warming has stalled right......???????

So was Lindzen right or wrong.......about the models......?????

AR5 states that warming has continued and that most of the heat has gone into the oceans. Lindzen was obviously wrong. Look at the graph. If you still think he was right, get new glasses.

The main factor that has reduced the warming recently has been the increase in aerosols from China and India. Now China is working frantically on pollution control. We'll probably start to see the effects pretty soon, TSI downturn or not.

Title: Re: Lindzen's Track record in temperature predictions
Post by Ajax on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 10:49am

muso wrote on Oct 1^st, 2013 at 4:59pm:

Ajax wrote on Oct 1^st, 2013 at 1:39pm:

Lindsen maybe off with his estimates but this doesn't make the models right.

So when he said that the models predicted 2 to 5 times more warming than was actually happening he was correct.

Title: Re: Lindzen's Track record in temperature predictions
Post by muso on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 11:39am

Ajax wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 10:49am:

muso wrote on Oct 1^st, 2013 at 4:59pm:

Ajax wrote on Oct 1^st, 2013 at 1:39pm:

Lindsen maybe off with his estimates but this doesn't make the models right.

Off with his estimates? Off the planet more like.

So when he said that the models predicted 2 to 5 times more warming than was actually happening he was correct.

Some models did, but not all. Models couldn't predict that China would foul up its atmosphere with aerosols either. They can only be expected to predict based on particular scenarios. That scenario was not considered. Who in their right minds would expect a country to do that?

Title: Re: Lindzen's Track record in temperature predictions
Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 11:44am

As MIT climate scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen stated, “The latest IPCC report has truly sunk to the level of hilarious incoherence—it is quite amazing to see the contortions the IPCC has to go through in order to keep the international climate agenda going.”

Title: Re: Lindzen's Track record in temperature predictions
Post by muso on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 11:51am

Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 11:44am:

How could anybody say that with a straight face after seeing Lindzen's own predictions? What does that do to his credibility as a spokesperson for climate prediction?

Title: Re: Lindzen's Track record in temperature predictions
Post by Ajax on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 12:03pm

muso wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 11:51am:

How could can say that with a straight face after seeing Lindzen's own predictions? What does that do to his credibility as a spokesperson for climate prediction?

It does to Lindzen what all the doom and gloom did to Jimmy Hansen.

They will dust themselves of and live to fight another day.

Title: Re: Lindzen's Track record in temperature predictions
Post by muso on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 12:09pm

Yes, but Hansen's prediction was the closest to the mark, although it's too short a time.

The hiatus of the last decade is not uncommon in climate records, but watch this space.

There is a brilliant reconstruction of Total Solar Irradiance in AR5 WG1. I'll find it for you. It shows the Maunder Minimum very well.

Title: Re: Lindzen's Track record in temperature predictions
Post by muso on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 12:14pm

The Reconstructed Total Solar Irradiance graph. I'd never seen this prior to the report.

graph11.jpeg (38 KB | 27 )