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General Discussion >> Federal Politics >> Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1392685894 Message started by Greens_Win on Feb 18th, 2014 at 11:11am |
Title: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Greens_Win on Feb 18th, 2014 at 11:11am
Just in
A new election WOO HOO ! Abbott's nightmare is real ! Go Scott … Go Greens |
Title: Re: Decision : A New WA Senate Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 18th, 2014 at 11:12am
High Court orders new Senate poll for WA
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/21534031/high-court-orders-new-senate-poll-for-wa/ West Australians will go back to the polls within weeks for an unprecedented standalone Senate election after the High Court today voided the results of last year’s disputed ballot. High Court Justice Kenneth Hayne, sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns, granted the Australian Electoral Commission’s request for a fresh poll after agreeing the loss of 1370 ballot papers affected the close result. It is understood Prime Minister Tony Abbott will have responsibility for setting the election date. With the Constitution setting a minimum 33 days for an election campaign, March 29 looms as the earliest date Mr Abbott could call the poll. Complicating the choice of dates is the need to avoid a clash with the Easter school holidays, which run from April 12 to April 27. Delaying the election to May would also put the campaign period into the run up to the Federal Budget, when the Government is expected to make a raft of swingeing and unpopular cuts. A Senate only election in just one State has never been held. The new poll is expected to cost taxpayers at least $13 million. It has the potential to cost the Liberals one of the three seats it won in September, making Mr Abbott more reliant on crossbenchers to pass key legislation. The AEC has been deeply embarrassed by the lost votes bungle. The initial count gave Palmer United Party’s Dio Wang and Labor Senator Louise Pratt the last two seats but a re-count awarded the seats to the Sports Party’s Wayne Dropulich and the Greens’ Scott Ludlam. The result hinged on whether the Australian Christian Party or the Shooters and Fishers Party were eliminated first. PUP and Labor benefited with the Shooters 14 votes ahead but the re-count gave the Christians a 12-vote gap, changing preference flows. Analysis of the original tallies show that if the ballot papers had not been lost, the Shooters would have been one vote ahead, delivering the seats to PUP and Labor. The AEC argued that a new election was required because the number of lost votes exceeded the margin. |
Title: Re: Decision : A New WA Senate Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 18th, 2014 at 11:19am
So with a potential hostile senate after this result and a possibility of a DD … Abbott could be gone in months.
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Title: Re: Decision : A New WA Senate Election Post by Bam on Feb 18th, 2014 at 11:39am
I expect this election will be held on Saturday 5 April. Abbott will want the election held before the May budget (which will have numerous unpopular measures), and the recent Nielsen poll may influence his decision on the date.
Unlike the Griffith by-election, there will be a swing against the Government. The Barnett government in WA has declined in popularity since the September Federal election due to the unpopular shark cull and other reasons. Federally, Bludgertrack is tracking a 7% swing against the Federal Coalition in WA. The Coalition will have difficulty holding their three seats. They may still do so with a 5% swing, although with a swing of that size their third seat would go to the WA Nationals rather than the Liberals. ALP would win 2 seats and the Greens 1; PUP would be shut out because their preferences would be needed to elect a third Coalition candidate. It is also possible with a 5% swing that the Greens will not win the final seat. The ALP will exceed two quotas, so they will get a seat, but the ALP may not deliver enough surplus votes to ensure the Greens win the final seat. With a 10% swing, the Coalition will be unlikely to win three seats. In this scenario, the Coalition candidate (most likely WA Nationals) will be competing with PUP for the final seat. Most likely, PUP will get the final seat if they receive ALP and Greens preferences. The critical point is when the result swings from four conservatives (Coalition/PUP) and two progressives (ALP/Greens) to a three-three split. This occurs with a swing around the 5% to 7% range, so with a likely 7% swing we may see another close election even more contentious than the last. Minor party votes will be crucial. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by The Abzi Party on Feb 18th, 2014 at 12:05pm
Less Coalition senators = more entertainment as they can't get their bills through the senate.
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Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by aquascoot on Feb 18th, 2014 at 12:10pm
Thanks to scott morrison, Tony will secure an even greater majority.
They should build a statue of scott on Manus Island. Good to see you chanting "go scott go" greenswin. A rare moment of lucidity |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by skippy. on Feb 18th, 2014 at 12:13pm
This is bad news for the women basher. ;D
No wonder longweekend is in hiding, so far he is wrong in every prediction he's made. ;D |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Greens_Win on Feb 18th, 2014 at 12:18pm aquascoot wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 12:10pm:
Is Scott Morrison a W.A Senator? Which Party? Meanwhile will the real scott step forward http://fieldnotes.org.au |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by bobbythebat1 on Feb 18th, 2014 at 12:21pm Fit of Absent Mindeness wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 12:05pm:
Yes - a double dissolution - I wish Rudd hadn't resigned. |
Title: Re: Decision : A New WA Senate Election Post by mantra on Feb 18th, 2014 at 12:35pm Bam wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 11:39am:
You can only hope there's a swing. Barnett is on the nose - and Greg Hunt should be too, but Abbott has had time to gather some bad publicity about Labor and will no doubt push out some very negative propaganda in the meantime. Let's hope there are a few environmentalists in WA who don't want the state wiped out with mining by a gungho Federal and state government who don't respect our heritage and environmental laws. These protections have taken a long time to become established yet the current government can remove them in an instant. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Bam on Feb 18th, 2014 at 12:45pm aquascoot wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 12:10pm:
Pollbludger is tracking a large swing against the Coalition in the polls in WA. Your remarks are nothing more than wishful thinking without any evidence to support it. |
Title: Re: Decision : A New WA Senate Election Post by Bam on Feb 18th, 2014 at 12:53pm mantra wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 12:35pm:
Numerous companies have dished out their own bad news since the government was elected. People who are freshly out of work do not tend to vote for incumbent governments or candidates. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by gizmo_2655 on Feb 18th, 2014 at 1:22pm ____ wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 11:11am:
You do know that a Senate election isn't going to affect the house of reps, don't you? |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Bam on Feb 18th, 2014 at 1:44pm gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 1:22pm:
He's probably expecting machinations that involve blocking of supply and a dismissal. I doubt that will happen. What is more likely is a new Senate election, a reduction in WA conservatives from four to three and a corresponding increase in WA progressives. This would make it more difficult for Abbott to get legislation though the Senate. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by gizmo_2655 on Feb 18th, 2014 at 3:44pm Bam wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 1:44pm:
But it still won't affect Abbott's Prime Ministership, so the thread title is, as usual, wrong and misleading(/a lie) |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by bobbythebat1 on Feb 18th, 2014 at 3:53pm gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 3:44pm:
Abbott has gotta go - his PMship has been a disaster. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by bobbythebat1 on Feb 18th, 2014 at 3:59pm
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Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by gizmo_2655 on Feb 18th, 2014 at 4:04pm Bobby. wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 3:53pm:
Then wait 2 and a half years and you'll get the chance to vote him out. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by bobbythebat1 on Feb 18th, 2014 at 4:05pm Quote:
That's too long - this country will look like Detroit by then. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Grendel on Feb 18th, 2014 at 4:24pm
Don't any of you think there will be a big disinterest in voting again like there was in Qld recently.... ?
Be interesting to see if WAers have Australia's interest at heart or just want to give someone the finger. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by gizmo_2655 on Feb 18th, 2014 at 4:25pm Bobby. wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 4:05pm:
That's what people thought about Rudd/Gillard too bobby. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by bobbythebat1 on Feb 18th, 2014 at 4:27pm gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 4:25pm:
It's your fault Gizmo - you voted for Abbott. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Doctor Jolly on Feb 18th, 2014 at 4:27pm I hope he loses his senate majority needed to repeal the carbon tax. Bring on the DD you promised Abbott. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by GeorgeH on Feb 18th, 2014 at 4:29pm
Hah! This is great! Suffer you simian!
WA LNP is really on the nose! |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by The Abzi Party on Feb 18th, 2014 at 4:52pm Grendel wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 4:24pm:
Why not do both? :) |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Kat on Feb 18th, 2014 at 4:55pm Bam wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 1:44pm:
So do I. But it should. Whitlam (a far more competent PM in a far more competent government) was sacked for far less. By an opposition which closely resembled The Simian and his motley crew in many ways. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by gizmo_2655 on Feb 18th, 2014 at 5:01pm Bobby. wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 4:27pm:
Yeah but I voted for Rudd in 07 too |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by gizmo_2655 on Feb 18th, 2014 at 5:03pm Kat wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 4:55pm:
And the Whitlam sacking was a misuse of the GG's power. Which is why Kerr got sacked as a result. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Grendel on Feb 18th, 2014 at 5:20pm St George of the Garden wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 4:29pm:
Yet we all know... and you've mentioned it in the past monkey boy that the people know the difference between State and Federal issues. :D ;D :D ;D :D |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by bobbythebat1 on Feb 18th, 2014 at 5:22pm gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 5:01pm:
Really - so did I. Luckily since then I voted Greens so I can't be blamed for any of this nightmare. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by John Smith on Feb 18th, 2014 at 6:26pm gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 3:44pm:
not necessarily, If Abbott cannot get his legislation to remove the carbon tax through he says he will go to DD and that will affect his PM'ship |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by bobbythebat1 on Feb 18th, 2014 at 6:35pm John Smith wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 6:26pm:
Good - another election. Looks like Bill Shorten will be our new PM soon. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by bobbythebat1 on Feb 18th, 2014 at 6:35pm
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Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by John Smith on Feb 18th, 2014 at 6:44pm Bobby. wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 6:35pm:
Hang on Bobby ... don't get to carried away ... just because Abbott SAID he'll go to a DD, it doesn't mean he will ... I think he's too gutless to try it. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Bam on Feb 18th, 2014 at 7:20pm John Smith wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 6:44pm:
I doubt he would. Abbott's already racking up the lies and broken promises at a rate not seen since Howard's first term. With this legacy of lies, who is going to notice one more? |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Greens_Win on Feb 18th, 2014 at 8:48pm gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 1:22pm:
A hostile new senate later this year could force abbott to a losing DD. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Maqqa on Feb 18th, 2014 at 9:40pm Quote:
I see Green_poo and other leftards are celebrating that this 2 Senate seat re-election will somehow change the current government But currently Ludlums' in the seat - who should lose his seat if sanity prevails So why are the Greens celebrating Ludlum losing his seat? |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Bam on Feb 18th, 2014 at 9:48pm Maqqa wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 9:40pm:
Because with Abbott and Barnett on the nose in WA, a swing against the government in the 5% to 10% range is likely. This would be likely to change the WA Senate result from an unbalanced 4-2 in favour of conservatives to a fairer 3-3 mix. The Liberals are not likely to win all 3 seats (the third conservative seat will be WA Nats or PUP on Liberal preferences). |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Maqqa on Feb 18th, 2014 at 9:49pm Bam wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 9:48pm:
So you say But the Greens represent mining jobs destruction WA won't make that mistake again |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Maqqa on Feb 18th, 2014 at 9:51pm ____ wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 8:48pm:
I hope so because the Greens should lose even more votes this time around |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by John Smith on Feb 18th, 2014 at 9:56pm Maqqa wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 9:49pm:
whereas Abbott represents job destruction in every other industry ;D ;D ;D |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Greens_Win on Feb 19th, 2014 at 3:19am Maqqa wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 9:51pm:
Yet abbott doesn't have the lie factor …. he is known to be a big liar now so will not catch so many out. |
Title: Re: Abbott Could Be Booted Within Months Post by Bam on Feb 19th, 2014 at 5:19am Maqqa wrote on Feb 18th, 2014 at 9:49pm:
That is why WA will reject the conservatives. Mining jobs are being lost across WA and unemployment there is rising sharply. |
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