Promising number of postal votes ahead of Senate election

Date
    April 4, 2014


Voter fatigue is not likely to prevent people from taking part in Western Australia's re-run Senate election this weekend, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) insists.      :)

Voters on Saturday will elect six senators from 77 candidates with the coalition, Labor, the Australian Greens, Palmer United Party and myriad micro parties fighting for the upper house seats.      :)      

It is the third election in WA in just over a year after a state election in March last year and the September federal election, not including local government elections that had a low voter turnout.

But Phil Diak from the AEC said voter fatigue did not appear to be a problem, judging by early votes.

"As of yesterday morning, with two days to go, we'd had 100,000 pre-poll votes, which is virtually identical to 2013," he told ABC radio on Friday.

"Of the 130,000 postal vote applications, 85,000 had been returned.

"So 185,000 people had voted, which is really well over 10 per cent of the total electoral roll, which is about 1.48 million, so trends are good."

However, Defence Minister David Johnston said he was concerned about voter fatigue and a lack of interest that could benefit minor and micro parties.

The WA-based minister, who is the lead candidate on the Liberal's Senate ticket, said he was expecting a voter turnout of 70 to 75 per cent, or lower.

"How that plays out in our voting system with its preferential deals done, who would know?" he told the ABC.

"It's very, very interesting and confusing."

The AEC copped further criticism this week when it was revealed 75 votes at an aged care facility were declared invalid because a ballot box was not properly secured.

Those people would be re-polled on Friday, Mr Diak said.

He said voting was compulsory unless a person had a valid excuse for not voting, such as a sudden hospitalisation or travelling overseas.

Those without a valid reason will be fined $20.

Mr Diak said anyone who voted in September's election elsewhere in Australia but had since moved to WA could vote again.

With other voters coming of age and some dying, the voter numbers had now increased overall by 28,000, he said.

There will be 738 polling places open on Saturday from 8am to 6pm (WST).

During the previous election, WA had the lowest voter turnout in the country.

A fresh Senate election was ordered in WA and an official inquiry launched after the AEC lost 1370 votes during a recount.

Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/promising-number-of-postal-votes-ahead-of-senate-election-20140404-363ej.html#ixzz2xyHher00

Vote 1 - Australian Greens.      [smiley=thumbsup.gif]    

I find 'voter fatigue' an interesting term.  Yes, WA people will have voted in three elections in a year.  But, how fatiguing is it to get out of bed, have a coffee, breakfast with the family and go and vote.  I am just thankful that we can vote!

Vic wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 11:42am:

I find 'voter fatigue' an interesting term.  Yes, WA people will have voted in three elections in a year.  But, how fatiguing is it to get out of bed, have a coffee, breakfast with the family and go and vote.  I am just thankful that we can vote!

Agreed. If you get there early in the morning before it gets hot, you can beat the rush and be in and out in no time. Takes nothing to go in and vote. Hardly a very tiring exercise!!!

He said voting was compulsory unless a person had a valid excuse for not voting, such as a sudden hospitalisation or travelling overseas.

Those without a valid reason will be fined $20.   :-?

Vic wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 11:42am:

I find 'voter fatigue' an interesting term.  Yes, WA people will have voted in three elections in a year.  But, how fatiguing is it to get out of bed, have a coffee, breakfast with the family and go and vote.  I am just thankful that we can vote!

Perhaps people are tired of being forced to vote when none of the parties are worth voting for?

The most interesting question is how many votes will disappear this time.

Vic wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 11:42am:

I find 'voter fatigue' an interesting term.  Yes, WA people will have voted in three elections in a year.  But, how fatiguing is it to get out of bed, have a coffee, breakfast with the family and go and vote.  I am just thankful that we can vote!

You forgot about the snag sandwich at the polling booth....
Best part of the process!

;D

Already voted this morning.....No one handing out Clive Palmer how to vote cards which was strange considering how much he spent on advertising.....A lot of people taking Greens how to vote cards however which could see Scott Ludlam get up???

:-? :-? :-?

philperth2010 wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 3:22pm:

Already voted this morning.....No one handing out Clive Palmer how to vote cards which was strange considering how much he spent on advertising.....A lot of people taking Greens how to vote cards however which could see Scott Ludlam get up??? :-? :-? :-?

It would be to the country's detriment should he not get up.

Lobo wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 2:48pm:

Vic wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 11:42am: I find 'voter fatigue' an interesting term.  Yes, WA people will have voted in three elections in a year.  But, how fatiguing is it to get out of bed, have a coffee, breakfast with the family and go and vote.  I am just thankful that we can vote! You forgot about the snag sandwich at the polling booth.... Best part of the process! ;D

ah yes froggie - a bag of fat cooked by a pusser's "chef" and presented in well fingered bread!  Fantastic!  At least the redders is usually fresh

bogarde73 wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 1:08pm:

The most interesting question is how many votes will disappear this time.

everyone should have one of those blue stamps on the back of their hands...as they leave... just as a double check..  ;) ;).. there is obviously some shady people in W.A. who would do anything.. to get their man/other.. over the line.. :)

philperth2010 wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 3:22pm:

Already voted this morning.....No one handing out Clive Palmer how to vote cards which was strange considering how much he spent on advertising.....A lot of people taking Greens how to vote cards however which could see Scott Ludlam get up??? :-? :-? :-?

Do you really think Palmer is going to get many votes here? He just looks and sounds like a blow-in (or blow-hard). I don't think much will change really. Nobody likes Labor. Most people hates the Greens and the rest just tolerate libs.

Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 4:22pm:

philperth2010 wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 3:22pm: Already voted this morning.....No one handing out Clive Palmer how to vote cards which was strange considering how much he spent on advertising.....A lot of people taking Greens how to vote cards however which could see Scott Ludlam get up??? :-? :-? :-? Do you really think Palmer is going to get many votes here? He just looks and sounds like a blow-in (or blow-hard). I don't think much will change really. Nobody likes Labor. Most people hates the Greens and the rest just tolerate libs.

I am sorry but I do not agree with that generalisation.....The ALP still receive a sizable vote which makes your comment a bit absurd really!!!

::) ::) ::)

philperth2010 wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 4:50pm:

Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 4:22pm: philperth2010 wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 3:22pm: Already voted this morning.....No one handing out Clive Palmer how to vote cards which was strange considering how much he spent on advertising.....A lot of people taking Greens how to vote cards however which could see Scott Ludlam get up??? :-? :-? :-? Do you really think Palmer is going to get many votes here? He just looks and sounds like a blow-in (or blow-hard). I don't think much will change really. Nobody likes Labor. Most people hates the Greens and the rest just tolerate libs. I am sorry but I do not agree with that generalisation.....The ALP still receive a sizable vote which makes your comment a bit absurd really!!! ::) ::) ::)

According to your ID you also live in Perth. You should therefore be aware that Labor are on the nose here more than any other state and get a substantially lower vote than the libs and nats. Clearly the word 'nobody' is not meant to be taken literally.

Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 4:58pm:

philperth2010 wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 4:50pm: Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 4:22pm: philperth2010 wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 3:22pm: Already voted this morning.....No one handing out Clive Palmer how to vote cards which was strange considering how much he spent on advertising.....A lot of people taking Greens how to vote cards however which could see Scott Ludlam get up??? :-? :-? :-? Do you really think Palmer is going to get many votes here? He just looks and sounds like a blow-in (or blow-hard). I don't think much will change really. Nobody likes Labor. Most people hates the Greens and the rest just tolerate libs. I am sorry but I do not agree with that generalisation.....The ALP still receive a sizable vote which makes your comment a bit absurd really!!! ::) ::) ::) According to your ID you also live in Perth. You should therefore be aware that Labor are on the nose here more than any other state and get a substantially lower vote than the libs and nats. Clearly the word 'nobody' is not meant to be taken literally.

Are you telling me Barnett and the Libs are popular.....I cannot agree???

:-? :-? :-?

From the Australian....

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalitions-wa-slump-spurs-senate-fears-for-tony-abbott/story-fn59niix-1226790896734#

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/colin-barnett-tries-to-steer-away-from-row-over-stadiumcasino-link/story-fnko7zi0-1226872748941#


Quote:

Brookfield has been appointed on the hotel development which is being erected on a former golf course the state government sold to Crown for $65m. The plot had been valued at $90m. News of Crown’s rumoured proposal sparked controversy in Perth where Mr Barnett has faced criticism over the sale of the golf course to Crown at a discount to its book value.

I trust the weather has done the right thing phil... to get the fed up voters out and about...

this in fact will be very very interesting....as its at Fed Level and I do not recall such an early test as this before...I bet it will be watched from far and wide..

you have an excellent chance to change your vote now...especially for those that thought a throw away vote to an independent was meaningless...only to see him/her win a seat....

not long now......

Let's hope Western Australians are brighter than I currently think they are.

philperth2010 wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 5:08pm:

Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 4:58pm: philperth2010 wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 4:50pm: Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 4:22pm: philperth2010 wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 3:22pm: Already voted this morning.....No one handing out Clive Palmer how to vote cards which was strange considering how much he spent on advertising.....A lot of people taking Greens how to vote cards however which could see Scott Ludlam get up??? :-? :-? :-? Do you really think Palmer is going to get many votes here? He just looks and sounds like a blow-in (or blow-hard). I don't think much will change really. Nobody likes Labor. Most people hates the Greens and the rest just tolerate libs. I am sorry but I do not agree with that generalisation.....The ALP still receive a sizable vote which makes your comment a bit absurd really!!! ::) ::) ::) According to your ID you also live in Perth. You should therefore be aware that Labor are on the nose here more than any other state and get a substantially lower vote than the libs and nats. Clearly the word 'nobody' is not meant to be taken literally. Are you telling me Barnett and the Libs are popular.....I cannot agree??? :-? :-? :-? From the Australian.... Quote: Brookfield has been appointed on the hotel development which is being erected on a former golf course the state government sold to Crown for $65m. The plot had been valued at $90m. News of Crown’s rumoured proposal sparked controversy in Perth where Mr Barnett has faced criticism over the sale of the golf course to Crown at a discount to its book value.

The Libs got a 51% primary vote at the federal election. I think that scores a mark of ' much more popular than labor'.

State libs are losing popularity but politics is still largely about who is least unpopular rather than any party scoring major triumphs.

Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 6:24pm:

The Libs got a 51% primary vote at the federal election. I think that scores a mark of ' much more popular than labor'. State libs are losing popularity but politics is still largely about who is least unpopular rather than any party scoring major triumphs.

The Federal election is irrelevant. What matters now is the Senate poll, where a swing against the government is very likely. The general consensus among the pundits is that the swing will be large enough to alter the balance from 4-2 in favour of conservative candidates to a 3-3 split.

Most likely outcome: Liberals 3 (not since 1970 has WA returned less than 3 Liberals), ALP 2, Greens 1.

If the swing is larger and the Liberals don't get to 3 quotas on Nationals preferences, the Liberals are almost friendless in preferences from other parties (except for WA Nationals), and Palmer's party will take the last seat. That requires a large swing combined with a good PUP primary vote of around 7%.

Bam wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 8:48pm:

Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 6:24pm: The Libs got a 51% primary vote at the federal election. I think that scores a mark of ' much more popular than labor'. State libs are losing popularity but politics is still largely about who is least unpopular rather than any party scoring major triumphs. The Federal election is irrelevant. What matters now is the Senate poll, where a swing against the government is very likely. The general consensus among the pundits is that the swing will be large enough to alter the balance from 4-2 in favour of conservative candidates to a 3-3 split. Most likely outcome: Liberals 3 (not since 1970 has WA returned less than 3 Liberals), ALP 2, Greens 1.

It is starting to look like ALP2 Greens1 Liberals2 PUP1 - not a good result for the Liberals.

True Colours wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 9:45pm:

Bam wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 8:48pm: Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 6:24pm: The Libs got a 51% primary vote at the federal election. I think that scores a mark of ' much more popular than labor'. State libs are losing popularity but politics is still largely about who is least unpopular rather than any party scoring major triumphs. The Federal election is irrelevant. What matters now is the Senate poll, where a swing against the government is very likely. The general consensus among the pundits is that the swing will be large enough to alter the balance from 4-2 in favour of conservative candidates to a 3-3 split. Most likely outcome: Liberals 3 (not since 1970 has WA returned less than 3 Liberals), ALP 2, Greens 1. It is starting to look like ALP2 Greens1 Liberals2 PUP1 - not a good result for the Liberals.

Got a link?

Aussie wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 9:46pm:

Got a link?

I was looking at the early counting being  shown on the ABC - the numbers are jumping around a bit though. That 2nd Labor seat is looking a bit shaky as is Palmer's.

True Colours wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 10:19pm:

Aussie wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 9:46pm: Got a link? I was looking at the early counting being  shown on the ABC - the numbers are jumping around a bit though. That 2nd Labor seat is looking a bit shaky as is Palmer's.

Not any more.

Aussie wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 11:22pm:

True Colours wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 10:19pm: Aussie wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 9:46pm: Got a link? I was looking at the early counting being  shown on the ABC - the numbers are jumping around a bit though. That 2nd Labor seat is looking a bit shaky as is Palmer's. Not any more.

WA Senate election results show swing away from major parties

Updated 1 hour 46 minutes ago

WA Senate election re-run scrutineers at Mt Lawley
Photo: Projected results show there is unlikely to be any change in the make-up of the Senate. (ABC News: Garrett Mundy)
Related Story: As it happened: WA Senate election results Related Story: Campaigns start for WA's April 5 senate election

Map:  WA


The Greens and the Palmer United Party (PUP) have emerged as the big winners after Western Australia's Senate election re-run.

On projected results the Greens have picked up a 6.7 per cent swing, which would ensure Scott Ludlam retains his Senate seat.

PUP also looks to have picked up a seat with a popular vote of about 7 per cent.

The projected data from the ABC's election analyst Antony Green showed the Liberals and the ALP had falls of 5.6 and 5 per cent respectively.

"The overall balance between the two parties, it looks like it's going to be exactly the same as it was last September," he said.

The Liberals appear to have secured two seats with Labor reduced to one.


WA Senate election results

As counting continues in the election re-run, you can find all the numbers on the ABC's results page.


Mr Green said it appeared swings away from the two major parties had transferred to the Greens and PUP.

The outcome for the sixth seat remains unclear and the Australian Electoral Commission says it may be weeks before the final results are known.

The blame game has already begun to determine what caused the swing away from the two major parties, with a backlash against union involvement in the Labor Party and a protest vote against the Government appearing the key factors.

Greens Senator Ludlam lost his seat in the first count in September, but regained it on the second count when the lost votes were not included.

He said he was "tremendously proud" looking at the early results.

"Our campaign isn't funded by the coal industry or gas industry," he said.



We had a strong online campaign backing up the most motivated grassroots face-to-face campaign that I've ever seen.

Senator Scott Ludlam



"The only way to compete with the major party financing by big business or Clive Palmer buying seats, is people power.

"We had a strong online campaign backing up the most motivated grassroots face-to-face campaign that I've ever seen."

Former Labor senator Chris Evans said the Greens had run a good campaign.

"The Greens certainly won the campaign in the sense that they were able to promote an image through their candidate," he said.

"They were creative. And quite frankly both the major parties looked a bit dull in comparison.

"As I say there was nothing at stake. And people I think were prepared to shop around and look around at alternatives for the major parties because government wasn't at stake."

Union involvement in ALP's preselection process under scrutiny

As attention turned to what caused the swing away from the major parties, Mr Evans was critical of Labor's preselection process.

The decision to put the former union heavyweight Joe Bullock ahead of sitting Senator Louise Pratt on Labor's ticket was publicly criticised within the party at the time.

"In my view there's no question that the Labor Party has a serious problem with its preselection processes, particularly in Western Australia," Mr Evans said.
Joe Bullock waits for fellow Labor candidate Louise Pratt to vote below the line in the WA Senate election re-run.
Photo: Joe Bullock waits for fellow Labor candidate Louise Pratt to vote below the line in the WA Senate election. (ABC News: Jessica Strutt)



"We had a situation where two large unions were able to make a decision about the candidates.

Aussie wrote on Apr 5^th, 2014 at 9:46pm:

True Colours wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 9:45pm: Bam wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 8:48pm: Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 6:24pm: The Libs got a 51% primary vote at the federal election. I think that scores a mark of ' much more popular than labor'. State libs are losing popularity but politics is still largely about who is least unpopular rather than any party scoring major triumphs. The Federal election is irrelevant. What matters now is the Senate poll, where a swing against the government is very likely. The general consensus among the pundits is that the swing will be large enough to alter the balance from 4-2 in favour of conservative candidates to a 3-3 split. Most likely outcome: Liberals 3 (not since 1970 has WA returned less than 3 Liberals), ALP 2, Greens 1. It is starting to look like ALP2 Greens1 Liberals2 PUP1 - not a good result for the Liberals. Got a link?

I have a link to Antony Green's Senate calculator here: WA Senate Calculator

It is interesting to put the actual results (by percentage) into the calculator. It gives a result of Liberals 2, ALP 2, Greens 1, PUP 1. The first four candidates were elected on quotas: Liberals 2, ALP 1, Greens 1. The last two candidates have to wait until the minor parties were eliminated one by one.

It came down to 4 candidates (listed by percentage and quota):
PUP 14.17% 0.9906
ALP 10.70% 0.7493
LIB 10.41 0.7289
HEMP 7.57% 0.5300

When the HEMP candidates was eliminated, the PUP and ALP candidates were both elected, leaving the Liberals without a third seat.

PUP 15.68% 1.0973
ALP 14.40% 1.0077
LIB 12.79% 0.8949

The sixth seat is between the ALP and Liberals. The count is fairly close, and below-the-line voting may decide the outcome. There is a suggestion that more ALP voters voted below the line than usual so they could put Pratt first, but I have not seen any numerical evidence for this.

If the election result is LIB 2, ALP 2, Greens 1, PUP 1, it would match an earlier prediction I first made a few months ago. The only other election result that is possible is LIB 3, ALP 1, Greens 1, PUP 1.