Quote:

An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble. Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent. Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government. The polls close in just under an hour. Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing. Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk. "These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said.

I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not.

oh... another thread.

Anyway, like I said in the other thread - exit polls are usually rubbish. Hoping this one isn't though

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:12pm:

oh... another thread. Anyway, like I said in the other thread - exit polls are usually rubbish. Hoping this one isn't though

The margin gives some hope.

Quote:

Channel 7 have got a ReachTEL exit poll for Ashgrove which shows Labor’s Kate Jones has widened her lead over premier Campbell Newman, who is looking more and more likely to lose his seat. The poll has Labor on 56% two party preferred to LNP’s 44%. On primaries, Jones is on 47.7% in Ashgrove and Newman is on 40.8%. The poll surveyed 991 voters after they voted.

Quote:

Education Minister John-Paul Langbroek was realistic about the early exit poll figures. "I'm not going to gild the lily, if these numbers for this exit poll, and it is very early, are correct then Annastacia Palaszczuk will be the premier," he said. "It's just that clear cut. "It's like a complete reversal of the swing that happened in 2012 but even larger."

Quote:

6.35.“All over the shop outside of urban areas”, says Possum, who has his act together sooner than I do. “Big indie, KAP and PUP votes in some places, smashing the LNP primary”.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/31/queensland-election-live-3/

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:40pm:

Quote: 6.35.“All over the shop outside of urban areas”, says Possum, who has his act together sooner than I do. “Big indie, KAP and PUP votes in some places, smashing the LNP primary”.

Where's that coming from, George?



Thanks.

Pollbludger—corrected my post.

Mirani 12.2% swing on early figures.

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:44pm:

Pollbludger—corrected my post. Mirani 12.2% swing on early figures.

Will be a very interesting night. Thankfully, it looks very much like Newman's fate will be decided early, so we should be able to enjoy the night.

we can definitely expect more leadership speculation if QLD actually falls to the ALP.

Farken hell!  They are about to elect a government with a leader who not only didn't know the GST rate, but thought it was a variable rate!!!  This is hilarious - just goes to show how much the LNP has stuffed up.

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:44pm:

Pollbludger—corrected my post. Mirani 12.2% swing on early figures.

ABC has the ALP ahead in Mirani.

12% swing in Ashgrove. Party away QLD, Newman is toast.

Quote:

6.55pm. Antony says we’re not yet setting huge swings in northern Queensland, but we don’t have anything yet from the Cairns and Townsville seats, and there is a big swing in Mirani. 6.54pm. ABC computer now calling Mirani for Labor, which is very good news for them. Everton looks like it will be close, which would be consistent with an overall tight result. Labor bolting home in Stafford, which is also good news for them. 6.52pm. First booth from Bulimba has a modest but sufficient swing to Labor. This seat swung relatively mildly in 2012, so it stands to reason the swing this time might be below par as well. Labor on track to win Nudgee – no surprise there.

sir prince duke alevine wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:58pm:

12% swing in Ashgrove. Party away QLD, Newman is toast.

Will make the night enjoyable whatever the outcome.

It looks like it might hinge on the big booths from the North.

Quote:

7.01pm. Huge swing in Toowoomba South – not winnable for Labor, but presumably stands them in good stead for Toowoomba North. 7.00pm. Labor ahead in Bundaberg, which is great news for them. Close in Pine Rivers, with big 13% LNP margin. 6.58pm. Newman gone in Ashgrove, if what I just caught on the screen is any guide. More calls from the ABC computer: Labor to gain Ipswich West, Lytton, Capalaba, Stafford as well as the aforementioned Mirani. Shane Knuth to hold Dalrymple for the KAP.

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 6:10pm:

Quote: An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble. Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent. Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government. The polls close in just under an hour. Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing. Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk. "These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said. I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not.

at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election.  Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident.

The ABC coverage has them at 32 a piece with just over 5% counted.

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:02pm:

sir prince duke alevine wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 6:58pm: 12% swing in Ashgrove. Party away QLD, Newman is toast. Will make the night enjoyable whatever the outcome. It looks like it might hinge on the big booths from the North.

with 42% primary I think Libs may still hold government, But NOT with Newman ;D :D ;D

Hopefully Tony is watching.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:04pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 6:10pm: Quote: An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble. Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent. Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government. The polls close in just under an hour. Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing. Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk. "These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said. I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not. at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election.  Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident.

It sounds like there was too much of a metropolitan bias in these exit polls.  Although they were right about Newman and the LNP being in danger.

Quote:

7.05pm. Cairns and Kallangur called for Labor, and so apparently are Gladstone and Mackay, which might otherwise have gone independent.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:04pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 6:10pm: Quote: An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble. Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent. Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government. The polls close in just under an hour. Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing. Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk. "These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said. I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not. at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election.  Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident.

Which poll predicted a Rudd victory?  Was this another failed bible prophecy?

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:08pm:

Quote: 7.05pm. Cairns and Kallangur called for Labor, and so apparently are Gladstone and Mackay, which might otherwise have gone independent.

That gives Labor a sniff.

37 a piece with 10% counted.

Quote:

7.12pm. More good news for Labor: Wayne Swan talking up Pine Rivers, Labor ahead in Burleigh, a few obvious gains like Yeerongpilly, Greenslopes (though somewhat modest swing there), Ipswich.

Antony Green has just stated that he cannot pick the winner of the election at this stage of the count (75 minutes after the close of polls). (Edit: Green has also stated that this isn't usual.)

ABC computer has LNP 36, ALP 43, Others 3, in doubt 7.

LNP are officially in trouble.

What are the undecided seats at this stage?

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:07pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:04pm: MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 6:10pm: Quote: An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble. Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent. Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government. The polls close in just under an hour. Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing. Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk. "These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said. I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not. at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election.  Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident. It sounds like there was too much of a metropolitan bias in these exit polls.  Although they were right about Newman and the LNP being in danger.

you needed an exit poll to tell you that????

exit polls are intrinsically hopeless.  Self-select, hopelessly biased and invariably wrong. Even when the get the winner right, they miss the margin by buckets.

Sir Prince Duke Phil the Greek!

Abbott wants ALP state govts, I told you!

Tony must be thinking Farkkkk, they will boot me before NSW election .

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:17pm:

What are the undecided seats at this stage?

almost all of them.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:17pm: What are the undecided seats at this stage? almost all of them.

Rubbish.......again.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:04pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 6:10pm: Quote: An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble. Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent. Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government. The polls close in just under an hour. Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing. Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk. "These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said. I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not. at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election.  Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident.

Longy, thank God you’re back. We’ve all been waiting with baited breath for your unbiased mathematical analysis.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:17pm: What are the undecided seats at this stage? almost all of them.

WTF?

8 seats, as I see it.

sir prince duke alevine wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:10pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:04pm: MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 6:10pm: Quote: An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble. Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent. Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government. The polls close in just under an hour. Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing. Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk. "These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said. I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not. at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election.  Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident. Which poll predicted a Rudd victory?  Was this another failed bible prophecy?

Longy has an extraordinary ability to remember numbers.

You know, like Rain Man.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:07pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:04pm: MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 6:10pm: Quote: An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble. Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent. Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government. The polls close in just under an hour. Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing. Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk. "These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said. I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not. at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election.  Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident. It sounds like there was too much of a metropolitan bias in these exit polls.  Although they were right about Newman and the LNP being in danger. you needed an exit poll to tell you that???? exit polls are intrinsically hopeless.  Self-select, hopelessly biased and invariably wrong. Even when the get the winner right, they miss the margin by buckets.

They are not at all accurate, but they indicated a much bigger swing than expected at some booths. They put the LNP in real danger, whereas before we were thinking a fairly straight forward LNP victory minus Newmam. Anyway the real votes are coming in now, and it's going to be line ball.

Quote:

7.23pm. Just stepped out for an ABC News Radio appearance, come back and see the ABC computer is now projecting 42 seats for Labor, which is certainly minority government territory. Wayne Swan talking up Murrumba big time, so clearly a huge swing in that outer northern Brisbane sweet spot where so many seats stand to be won and lost.

simply stunning results. As Antony Green said - to not be able to call the result at this stage - after what happened last election - is just extraordinary.

Very real possibility now of a hung parliament.

I can't help thinking this result will be terminal for Abbott.

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:25pm:

Quote: 7.23pm. Just stepped out for an ABC News Radio appearance, come back and see the ABC computer is now projecting 42 seats for Labor, which is certainly minority government territory. Wayne Swan talking up Murrumba big time, so clearly a huge swing in that outer northern Brisbane sweet spot where so many seats stand to be won and lost.

It was 43 at one stage, so one more seat has been brought back into undecided territory.

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:26pm:

simply stunning results. As Antony Green said - to not be able to call the result at this stage - after what happened last election - is just extraordinary. Very real possibility now of a hung parliament. I can't help thinking this result will be terminal for Abbott.

It's a glorious day.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:22pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:19pm: MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:17pm: What are the undecided seats at this stage? almost all of them. WTF? 8 seats, as I see it.

Do you know which seats?

Quote:

7.25pm. Labor looks like winning Barron River, but LNP predicted to retain Mundingburra, so a mixed picture up north.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm:

exit polls are intrinsically hopeless.  Self-select, hopelessly biased and invariably wrong. Even when the get the winner right, they miss the margin by buckets.

I don't place much credence in exit polls either, mainly because they have a usefulness that is measured in hours before they go stale. The results are what we need to look at, not stale exit polls.

Having said that, the exit polls seem to be matching the election results (with usual MoE variance).

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:26pm:

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:25pm: Quote: 7.23pm. Just stepped out for an ABC News Radio appearance, come back and see the ABC computer is now projecting 42 seats for Labor, which is certainly minority government territory. Wayne Swan talking up Murrumba big time, so clearly a huge swing in that outer northern Brisbane sweet spot where so many seats stand to be won and lost. It was 43 at one stage, so one more seat has been brought back into undecided territory.

Slipped back to 41 now.

Quote:

7.28pm. Predictable Labor gains: Ashgrove, Brisbane Central, Bulimba, Cairns, Capalaba, Cook, Greenslopes, Ipswich, Ipswich West, Keppel, Logan, Lytton, Morayfield, Nudgee, Sandgate, Townsville, Waterford, Yeerongpilly. Less predictable: Barron River, Algester, Bundaberg, Kallangur, Mirani, Murrumba, Pine Rivers, Redlands, Stretton, Tooowoomba North.

Newman gone. Sooooooooooooooooo sweeeeeeetttttttt. And this is as much a disaster for Abbott and his extreme right wing policies. Antony Green just said labor is closer to winning this election then the LNP.

Newman gone. Sooooooooooooooooo sweeeeeeetttttttt. And this is as much a disaster for Abbott and his extreme right wing policies. Antony Green just said labor is closer to winning this election then the LNP.

41 Labor, 35 LNO seats—LNP just slipped back one.

Quote:

7.28pm. Predictable Labor gains: Ashgrove, Brisbane Central, Bulimba, Cairns, Capalaba, Cook, Greenslopes, Ipswich, Ipswich West, Keppel, Logan, Lytton, Morayfield, Nudgee, Sandgate, Townsville, Waterford, Yeerongpilly. Less predictable: Barron River, Algester, Bundaberg, Kallangur, Mirani, Murrumba, Pine Rivers, Redlands, Stretton, Tooowoomba North.

Quote:

7.35pm. No, nothing doing in Burdekin or Gaven. Both to go LNP. Same cross bench as last parliament. 7.33pm. Cross bench: Mount Isa, Dalrymple, Nicklin. But the ABC computer isn’t yet saying anything about Burdekin or Gaven. Will look into those.

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:36pm:

41 Labor, 35 LNO seats—LNP just slipped back one.

10 seats in doubt.

"Now that it does appear that Campbell Newman has lost Ashgrove".

Music to my ears.

Even if Labor don't win, looks like it's going to give the neo-cons one hell of a fright.

And, hopefully, a wake-up call to lift their game.

Quote:

7.38pm. No sooner do I type than does Brisbane Central tick back to Labor ahead. Certainly not being called though. 7.36pm. Surprisingly close in Brisbane Central though. ABC computer says LNP with nose in front. 7.36pm. LNP at least looking better on the Gold Coast now. Albert and Broadwater in doubt, but Burleigh down as LNP retain.

......

Newman has fallen for the ideological LNP cause. Maybe Abbott will knight him.

Wayne Swan just said it correctly. What we have here is a rejection of LNP policies both state AND FEDERAL. Only Longliar would deny it.

There are swings to the ALP of over 15%

This is turning out to be the best Saturday ever!    ;D

In other news—Aust 1 SK 0, just before halftime!

The vote is certainly tightening. 12 seats now in doubt.

and regularly over 20%

Newman has lost his seat- and Labor is giving them a good shake up- some ALP still hoping of course that Labor can take Govt. but that just won't happen- they can put a fire under them and are now within striking distance come the next election. Cautiously happy and optimistic!

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:44pm:

In other news—Aust 1 SK 0, just before halftime!

I have no idea what that means   :-/

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:45pm:

and regularly over 20%

:o

Quote:

7.43pm. In sum: Labor 40, LNP 36, cross-bench 3, in doubt 10. 7.40pm. In doubt: Albert, Brisbane Central, Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha (another inner-city surprise), Mount Ommaney (big show for Labor if so), Mundingburra, Redlands, Whitsunday.

Go on, you good thing, 5 more seats!

greggerypeccary wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:46pm:

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:44pm: In other news—Aust 1 SK 0, just before halftime! I have no idea what that means   :-/

Probably soccer- stop it George.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:46pm:

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:44pm: In other news—Aust 1 SK 0, just before halftime! I have no idea what that means   :-/

Asia cup soccer—Aust just scored, now it is half time.

The Mole wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:47pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:45pm: and regularly over 20% :o

I'm not sure, but I think I just heard them say that one seat had a swing of 28%

:o

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:48pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:46pm: St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:44pm: In other news—Aust 1 SK 0, just before halftime! I have no idea what that means   :-/ Asia cup soccer—Aust just scored, now it is half time.

What's SK?

Peter Beattie is sounding very optimistic.

Oh, South Korea, I'm guessing.

Asia Cup?

Why is Australia in something called the Asia Cup?

The swings in many seats are so large that the swingometer on the ABC cannot show them. It maxes out at 10%. Some swings to Labor are nearly twice this. Probably just returning some of the large swings at the last election, but it is remarkable that the ALP are even with a chance.

The Queensland Parliament has 89 seats, 45 are needed for victory.

The ABC computer has the ALP on 44 seats.

Bam wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:51pm:

The swings in many seats are so large that the swingometer on the ABC cannot show them. It maxes out at 10%. Some swings to Labor are nearly twice this. Probably just returning some of the large swings at the last election, but it is remarkable that the ALP are even with a chance. The Queensland Parliament has 89 seats, 45 are needed for victory. The ABC computer has the ALP on 44 seats.

Opening the next bottle of Champagne ...

Interesting to note that the LNP primary vote remains above labor's. Labor succeeding by former PUP voters returning to them and also a surprisingly solid greens vote.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:51pm:

Oh, South Korea, I'm guessing. Asia Cup? Why is Australia in something called the Asia Cup?

Australia used to compete in Oceania. That's like a whale in a swimming pool with sardines and minnows due to Australia's sporting hegemony.

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:47pm:

Quote: 7.43pm. In sum: Labor 40, LNP 36, cross-bench 3, in doubt 10. 7.40pm. In doubt: Albert, Brisbane Central, Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha (another inner-city surprise), Mount Ommaney (big show for Labor if so), Mundingburra, Redlands, Whitsunday. Go on, you good thing, 5 more seats!

Mundingburra has shifted into the red column.

Helped along by a 10% swing to the Palmer Party.

Quote:

7.51pm. My calculations didn’t account for Springwood, a spectacular Labor gain. So adding in Mundingburra, that reads as 41 Labor, 36 LNP, cross-bench 3, nine in doubt. 7.49pm. One of those key seats, Mundingburra, is now being called by the ABC computer for Labor. 7.45pm. Or to put it another way, Labor on the cusp of the barest of majorities. If they fail, very likely a hung parliament. Nearly everything would have to go right for the LNP to get them to 45.

LNP in BIG trouble! I’ll drink to that! There wikll be NO bi-election to get The Can’t back into Parliament!

statewide swing of 13% - which puts them just on track to possibly form government.

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:52pm:

Interesting to note that the LNP primary vote remains above labor's. Labor succeeding by former PUP voters returning to them and also a surprisingly solid greens vote.

There were no former PUP voters; this is PUP's first Queensland state election.

Just heard someone on Sky ( yes I know) said they may have a hung parliament. wt...

Antony Green is predicting 46 seats to ALP.

Bam wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:54pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:52pm: Interesting to note that the LNP primary vote remains above labor's. Labor succeeding by former PUP voters returning to them and also a surprisingly solid greens vote. There were no former PUP voters; this is PUP's first Queensland state election.

Oh... good point  :D

I think its actually KAP getting a bit of a hiding

Quote:

7.54pm. Antony says 46 the most likely result. Need I remind you, 45 is a majority. But, of course, he advises caution. 7.52pm. I’d neglected to mention Maryborough. Chris Foley falling short, producing a Labor versus LNP contest in which Labor has its nose in front.

Hoo boy!

LNP pundits now predicting a Labor victory. Best case scenario for LNP is minority government.

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:58pm:

LNP pundits now predicting a Labor victory. Best case scenario for LNP is minority government.

And Corrupt Campbell without a seat.


;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

41:36 seats.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:07pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:04pm: MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 6:10pm: Quote: An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble. Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent. Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government. The polls close in just under an hour. Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing. Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk. "These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said. I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not. at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election.  Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident. It sounds like there was too much of a metropolitan bias in these exit polls.  Although they were right about Newman and the LNP being in danger. you needed an exit poll to tell you that???? exit polls are intrinsically hopeless.  Self-select, hopelessly biased and invariably wrong. Even when the get the winner right, they miss the margin by buckets.

Hopelessly biased eh, Longy?

Who are you tipping to win the erection?

The Mole wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:54pm:

Just heard someone on Sky ( yes I know) said they may have a hung parliament. wt...

They’re biased.

Katter 9.9% swing against it. (ABC)

Quote:

8.05pm. The ABC computer is now calling Mundingburra for Labor, so I’ve now got Labor to 45. Not that late count reversals are unheard of, but there’s another four seats that are lineball – Albert, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney and Whitsunday. Plus Redlands, where the LNP is ahead but not home and hosed.

Tightening up again on the computer. Yet all the pundits are talking Labor victory.

.....

......

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:52pm:

Interesting to note that the LNP primary vote remains above labor's. Labor succeeding by former PUP voters returning to them and also a surprisingly solid greens vote.

Great result for the Greens. A decided swing to the left. Yeahhhh

Quote:

8.18pm. So I’ve still got Labor on 44, with another four seats that could go either way. 8.16pm. Albert now being called for LNP. 8.09pm. Pumicestone has been downgraded from ALP gain to ALP ahead, so Labor back down to 44. So sorry if any champagne corks just popped/wrists got slashed.

Quote:

8.26pm. I should add that given the late surge to Labor, you would expect late counting to be better for them. So I’m leaning back towards a hung parliament. 8.23pm. Ferny Grove pegged back from Labor win to Labor gain. So it’s still a very live question whether it’s a hung parliament or a Labor majority. Wayne Swan graciously allowing for an LNP majority, but that’s hard to see. My count: Labor 43, LNP 37, cross-bench 3. In doubt: Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone, Whitsunday.

Ferny Grove 15 of 35      booths, ALP 51.11 LNP       48.89      

Interesting ... the ABC computer has just dumped a bunch of seats back into In Doubt ... it went from 5 to 17.

LNP 30
ALP 39
Other 3
In Doubt 17

When In Doubt was on 5, Antony Green stated that the ALP was ahead in all of them.

Edit: It's back to 5 ...

LNP 38
ALP 43
Other 3
In Doubt 5 (ALP ahead in all 5)

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 8:13pm:

Tightening up again on the computer. Yet all the pundits are talking Labor victory.

They’re biased too.

Idiots.

Fantastic result in Bundaberg.

Quote:

8.41pm. I’ve still got Labor working off a base of 41, and I would rather be Labor than the LNP in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra. 8.38pm. ABC computer says Labor win in Mount Ommaney, but they’re only 1.0%. Not that it had ever been in my Labor total. 8.38pm. Mount Cooth-tha now reined back from Labor win to Labor ahead – a bit of a trend.

Quote:

8.41pm. I’ve still got Labor working off a base of 41, and I would rather be Labor than the LNP in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra.

Quote:

8.49pm. That said, there are further seats which might go Labor: Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone, Whitsunday, over and above the four that are their most likely pathway to a majority. 8.46pm. The ABC has reined Glass House back from LNP hold to LNP ahead. But my instinct would be that the LNP will end up winning anything where they’re ahead. The question is, are these 2% Labor leads in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra sticky enough to hold off a likely move back to the LNP in late counting.

Quote:

Mount Coot-tha Booths In: 11 of 35 RICE, Saxon       LNP       6,558      47.67 MILES, Steven       ALP       7,198      52.33 Exhausted             595

43 Labor
39 LNP
4 seats in doubt

ABC predicting 2 of those in doubt to go to Labor, creating a one seat majority.

ABC predicts 45 Labor.

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:00pm:

ABC predicts 45 Labor.

How many do they need to form Govt?

Bizarre.
If you don't live in QLD why would you give two sh*ts?

I know I don't.

The Mole wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:02pm:

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:00pm: ABC predicts 45 Labor. How many do they need to form Govt?

45 will create a one seat majority, 3 cross benchers.

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:03pm:

The Mole wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:02pm: St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:00pm: ABC predicts 45 Labor. How many do they need to form Govt? 45 will create a one seat majority, 3 cross benchers.

I'm getting ready to do a happy dance ...

Quote:

Mundingburra CRISAFULLI, David       LNP       6,850      46.25 O'ROURKE, Coralee       ALP       7,960      53.75 Exhausted             948

And LNP disrespect for the electorate continues. As usual the overwhelming message the LNP are saying they have received from the QLD people is that they (the LNP) did not effectively communicate their message and they have to do better next time. Not that their policies are wrong but that they failed to communicate them. Why we keep tolerating these people disrespecting us some absolutely confounding.

I am depressed

ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:06pm:

And LNP disrespect for the electorate continues. As usual the overwhelming message the LNP are saying they have received from the QLD people is that they (the LNP) did not effectively communicate their message and they have to do better next time. Not that their policies are wrong but that they failed to communicate them. Why we keep tolerating these people disrespecting us some absolutely confounding.

I suppose this is giving us a bit of a break from your paranoia over climate change eh?
:)

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:08pm:

I am depressed

;D

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:03pm:

The Mole wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:02pm: St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:00pm: ABC predicts 45 Labor. How many do they need to form Govt? 45 will create a one seat majority, 3 cross benchers.

Bet Tony Abbot and the rest of the Fed govt do.

Aust 2:1, 15 minutes extra time to go!

greggerypeccary wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:06pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:03pm: The Mole wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:02pm: St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:00pm: ABC predicts 45 Labor. How many do they need to form Govt? 45 will create a one seat majority, 3 cross benchers. I'm getting ready to do a happy dance ...

:D ;D

Quote:

Mansfield OBEID, Adam       ALP       8,079      50.62 WALKER, Ian       LNP       7,880      49.38 Exhausted             477

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:03pm:

The Mole wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:02pm: St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:00pm: ABC predicts 45 Labor. How many do they need to form Govt? 45 will create a one seat majority, 3 cross benchers.

You put your feet on the seats of Queensland.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:03pm:

Bizarre. If you don't live in QLD why would you give two sh*ts? I know I don't.

I bet Tony Abbott and the rest of the Fed Govt do

ABC predicts 46 ALP seats. Be nice.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:03pm:

Bizarre. If you don't live in QLD why would you give two sh*ts? I know I don't.

Bizarre like if you're not living in Australia, then coming on an Aussie politics forum and giving two sh*ts?

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:08pm:

ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:06pm: And LNP disrespect for the electorate continues. As usual the overwhelming message the LNP are saying they have received from the QLD people is that they (the LNP) did not effectively communicate their message and they have to do better next time. Not that their policies are wrong but that they failed to communicate them. Why we keep tolerating these people disrespecting us some absolutely confounding. I suppose this is giving us a bit of a break from your paranoia over climate change eh? :)

I blame Islam.

Regardless of which party will win today, it is now obvious that the Federal LNP have to make changes to its core policies, otherwise, it would lose.   The issue is that the austerity measures are too hard for the electorate to swallow.  And furthermore, balancing the budget by selling state assets would never go down well in a conservative state like QLD.   Plus, there is nothing to brag about selling assets, its like selling a fridge at home for $10, and then rent it back for $1 a year, and turn around to tell your parents that you made a $9 profit this year. 

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:03pm:

Bizarre. If you don't live in QLD why would you give two sh*ts? I know I don't.

We know you don't.

Andrei cares about one thing, and one thing only: Andrei.

"I'm alright Jack".


http://resources0.news.com.au/images/2012/12/05/1226530/378660-feet.jpg

Queensland Slits its own throat...

lets Vote in an idiot that doesn't even know what the GST rate is...   ::)

they must be as thick as pig poo up there...  :D

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:14pm:

ABC predicts 46 ALP seats. Be nice.

http://www.marshallforum.com/members/hot-tubes-70-albums-junk-picture10240-borat-very-nice-zpseae6895b.jpg

ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:06pm:

And LNP disrespect for the electorate continues. As usual the overwhelming message the LNP are saying they have received from the QLD people is that they (the LNP) did not effectively communicate their message and they have to do better next time. Not that their policies are wrong but that they failed to communicate them. Why we keep tolerating these people disrespecting us some absolutely confounding.

As long as the LNP and the broader Coalition keep thinking that, they will keep losing. This sort of bullsht shows that they are in denial.

Their record and their policies were both sub-par, and that is why they lost. Not their communication - how much more did they spend than the ALP?

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:18pm:

Queensland Slits its own throat... lets Vote in an idiot that doesn't even know what the GST rate is...   ::) they must be as thick as pig poo up there...  :D

Eat up that humble pie, there's plenty more where that came from.

Bam wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:24pm:

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:18pm: Queensland Slits its own throat... lets Vote in an idiot that doesn't even know what the GST rate is...   ::) they must be as thick as pig poo up there...  :D Eat up that humble pie, there's plenty more where that came from.

the only area that ticks me off is that us Victorians will have to continue to subsidise those spongers in Queensland as they go further and further into debt...

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:18pm:

Queensland Slits its own throat... lets Vote in an idiot that doesn't even know what the GST rate is...   ::) they must be as thick as pig poo up there...  :D

Newman didn't answer the GST question either. Maybe it's a QLD thing.

Imagine the what the swing would have been if she knew the GST rate.

Great result in Qld, Aust wins Asia Cup 2:1 against South Korea.

What a night!

44:39, 46seats predicted for ALP.

Don’t privatise, don’t muck around with IR. Pretty easy lessons even for Libs, surely?

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:27pm:

Bam wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:24pm: President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:18pm: Queensland Slits its own throat... lets Vote in an idiot that doesn't even know what the GST rate is...   ::) they must be as thick as pig poo up there...  :D Eat up that humble pie, there's plenty more where that came from. the only area that ticks me off is that us Victorians will have to continue to subsidise those spongers in Queensland as they go further and further into debt...

Queenslanders know selling of assets to pay off debt can cost you far more in the long run. That's why most of us are happy to keep our homes, even if we have to carry a mortgage.

Campbell Newman: "My political career is over".

You'd better believe it, buddy.

;D

Setanta wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:15pm:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:03pm: Bizarre. If you don't live in QLD why would you give two sh*ts? I know I don't. Bizarre like if you're not living in Australia, then coming on an Aussie politics forum and giving two sh*ts?

No actually completely different.

Setanta wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:28pm:

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:18pm: Queensland Slits its own throat... lets Vote in an idiot that doesn't even know what the GST rate is...   ::) they must be as thick as pig poo up there...  :D Newman didn't answer the GST question either. Maybe it's a QLD thing.

;)

greggerypeccary wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:33pm:

Campbell Newman: "My political career is over". You'd better believe it, buddy. ;D

yeah well... good luck to him in the future...

he served his country..

he served Brisbane...

he served Queensland...

what have you ever done?

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:08pm:

ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:06pm: And LNP disrespect for the electorate continues. As usual the overwhelming message the LNP are saying they have received from the QLD people is that they (the LNP) did not effectively communicate their message and they have to do better next time. Not that their policies are wrong but that they failed to communicate them. Why we keep tolerating these people disrespecting us some absolutely confounding. I suppose this is giving us a bit of a break from your paranoia over climate change eh? :)

Me thinks you're a lot more p!ssed off with the result then you pretend

ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:38pm:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:08pm: ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:06pm: And LNP disrespect for the electorate continues. As usual the overwhelming message the LNP are saying they have received from the QLD people is that they (the LNP) did not effectively communicate their message and they have to do better next time. Not that their policies are wrong but that they failed to communicate them. Why we keep tolerating these people disrespecting us some absolutely confounding. I suppose this is giving us a bit of a break from your paranoia over climate change eh? :) Me thinks you're a lot more p!ssed off with the result then you pretend

My friend I couldn't give a monkeys toss.
It don't affect me a single cent.

Hence my point, if you don't live in QLD why care?

Quote:

9.35pm. Then there’s Maryborough, which Labor will win if Chris Foley doesn’t finish ahead of them. With 27 of 30 booths, the primary votes are 29.6% for the LNP, 25.3% for Labor and 22.1% for Foley. Whether Foley closes the gap depends on preferences, which we won’t know about this evening. That includes 12.6% for Palmer United and 10.4% for others. 9.30pm. So here’s the seats I’ll be over like a rash from now on, namely Labor’s shortest path to 45 off its base of 42: Ferny Grove. Labor leads by 0.9%, three booths outstanding. Mansfield. 50.0-50.0, four booths outstanding. Mount Ommaney. Labor leads by 0.7%, four booths outstanding. Whitsunday. Labor leads by 0.3%, four booths outstanding. 9.26pm. Pumicestone has moved hard to Labor: lead now of 3.0%. Perhaps we’re seeing different dynamics in Caboolture and Bribie Island, with the count ping-ponging as booths from either end report.

tickleandrose wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:16pm:

Regardless of which party will win today, it is now obvious that the Federal LNP have to make changes to its core policies, otherwise, it would lose.   The issue is that the austerity measures are too hard for the electorate to swallow.  And furthermore, balancing the budget by selling state assets would never go down well in a conservative state like QLD.   Plus, there is nothing to brag about selling assets, its like selling a fridge at home for $10, and then rent it back for $1 a year, and turn around to tell your parents that you made a $9 profit this year.

Yes, but they stopped the boats, you have to admit that.

LNP only have proven duds as potential Leaders.

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:40pm:

Quote: 9.35pm. Then there’s Maryborough, which Labor will win if Chris Foley doesn’t finish ahead of them. With 27 of 30 booths, the primary votes are 29.6% for the LNP, 25.3% for Labor and 22.1% for Foley. Whether Foley closes the gap depends on preferences, which we won’t know about this evening. That includes 12.6% for Palmer United and 10.4% for others. 9.30pm. So here’s the seats I’ll be over like a rash from now on, namely Labor’s shortest path to 45 off its base of 42: Ferny Grove. Labor leads by 0.9%, three booths outstanding. Mansfield. 50.0-50.0, four booths outstanding. Mount Ommaney. Labor leads by 0.7%, four booths outstanding. Whitsunday. Labor leads by 0.3%, four booths outstanding. 9.26pm. Pumicestone has moved hard to Labor: lead now of 3.0%. Perhaps we’re seeing different dynamics in Caboolture and Bribie Island, with the count ping-ponging as booths from either end report.

If you don’t live in Australia, why would you care?

St George of the Garden wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:42pm:

LNP only have proven duds as potential Leaders.

that hasn't stopped the ALP doing so well today

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:40pm:

ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:38pm: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:08pm: ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:06pm: And LNP disrespect for the electorate continues. As usual the overwhelming message the LNP are saying they have received from the QLD people is that they (the LNP) did not effectively communicate their message and they have to do better next time. Not that their policies are wrong but that they failed to communicate them. Why we keep tolerating these people disrespecting us some absolutely confounding. I suppose this is giving us a bit of a break from your paranoia over climate change eh? :) Me thinks you're a lot more p!ssed off with the result then you pretend My friend I couldn't give a monkeys toss. It don't affect me a single cent. Hence my point, if you don't live in QLD why care?

Some of us have friends and family, Andrei.

hopefully Labor can govern in their own right though...

the last thing they need is to have to deal with fringe dwellers and loopys...

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:40pm:

ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:38pm: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:08pm: ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:06pm: And LNP disrespect for the electorate continues. As usual the overwhelming message the LNP are saying they have received from the QLD people is that they (the LNP) did not effectively communicate their message and they have to do better next time. Not that their policies are wrong but that they failed to communicate them. Why we keep tolerating these people disrespecting us some absolutely confounding. I suppose this is giving us a bit of a break from your paranoia over climate change eh? :) Me thinks you're a lot more p!ssed off with the result then you pretend My friend I couldn't give a monkeys toss. It don't affect me a single cent. Hence my point, if you don't live in QLD why care?

This will come as a complete surprise to you, however, there are people in the world who care about the welfare of other people, even if they live in different states or different countries.

Not everyone is a selfish little arsehole, who puts money and self-interest ahead of everything else.

well it looks like one term govts are to become common.  Rudd and federal labor last after one term. Lnp probably to lose after one term and the voters appear to have short memories and even shorter fuses.

It makes it very difficult for everyone if parties from both sides are to be given one term to fix everything, change everything and sort everything out in a year or two.

it isn't a good omen for government from either side.

The poor pet is confused again he thinks Labor only served for one term.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:54pm:

well it looks like one term govts are to become common.  Rudd and federal labor last after one term. Lnp probably to lose after one term and the voters appear to have short memories and even shorter fuses. It makes it very difficult for everyone if parties from both sides are to be given one term to fix everything, change everything and sort everything out in a year or two. it isn't a good omen for government from either side.

One lying, useless prick down, one to go.

Then the ALP should hold government in QLD and federally for a couple of terms.

Things are looking up for the country.

Wonderful!!!! They're calling it the Tony Abbot factor. Time to get rid of him and his vicious right wing policies

skippy. wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:57pm:

The poor pet is confused again he thinks Labor only served for one term.

Then why is Mike Baird on track to retain a big majority here in NSW?

Maybe because Newman and Abbott are arrogant pr!cks who thought that they could just be given a second term, and take the electorate for granted.

I am not a Queenslander and therefore don't care about the result of this election in and of itself.

However, as a lifelong swing voter with no preference to either side, I think that this result is good in that it shows both major parties that you cannot take the people for granted.

http://www.clipartbest.com/cliparts/xig/KrA/xigKrAa4T.gif


well done labor

ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:02pm:

Wonderful!!!! They're calling it the Tony Abbot factor. Time to get rid of him and his vicious right wing policies

Tony's days are numbered.

He won't get a minute of sleep tonight   ;D

Bundaberg ... 22.4% swing to ALP. That's got to hurt.

Has anyone else noticed how Labor is saying that federal issues played a role, and the Coalition saying that it was exclusively state-based, and last Qld election, it was the reverse?

What lying little arseholes both sides!

Bam wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:06pm:

Bundaberg ... 22.4% swing to ALP. That's got to hurt.

I'll have a rum to celebrate.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:54pm:

well it looks like one term liberal govts are to become common.  Rudd and federal labor last after one term. Lnp probably to lose after one term and the voters appear to have short memories and even shorter fuses. It makes it very difficult for everyone if parties from both sides are to be given one term to fix everything, change everything and sort everything out in a year or two. it isn't a good omen for government from either side.

fixed it for you wrongie.  For a mathematician, you sure have trouble counting basics.

Bam wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:06pm:

Bundaberg ... 22.4% swing to ALP. That's got to hurt.

And nor should he!

He deserves everything that he gets, the lying pr!ck.

No difference between him and Gillard.

Bam wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:06pm:

Bundaberg ... 22.4% swing to ALP. That's got to hurt.

uh oh - look out, the libs are whinging of an evil union conspiracy in Bundaberg already on the ABC.

Mansfield is the closest seat ... 20-something votes in it.

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:12pm:

Bam wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 10:06pm: Bundaberg ... 22.4% swing to ALP. That's got to hurt. uh oh - look out, the libs are whinging of an evil union conspiracy in Bundaberg already on the ABC.

I don't know anything about this election gandalf as I haven't followed a single second of it but the ALP and Trade Unions do have some past form on underhand tactics.

I read "To the Bitter End" and the tactics agreed by the Union movement in 2007 v Howard were pretty sordid and dishonest.

Karnal wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:44pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:40pm: Quote: 9.35pm. Then there’s Maryborough, which Labor will win if Chris Foley doesn’t finish ahead of them. With 27 of 30 booths, the primary votes are 29.6% for the LNP, 25.3% for Labor and 22.1% for Foley. Whether Foley closes the gap depends on preferences, which we won’t know about this evening. That includes 12.6% for Palmer United and 10.4% for others. 9.30pm. So here’s the seats I’ll be over like a rash from now on, namely Labor’s shortest path to 45 off its base of 42: Ferny Grove. Labor leads by 0.9%, three booths outstanding. Mansfield. 50.0-50.0, four booths outstanding. Mount Ommaney. Labor leads by 0.7%, four booths outstanding. Whitsunday. Labor leads by 0.3%, four booths outstanding. 9.26pm. Pumicestone has moved hard to Labor: lead now of 3.0%. Perhaps we’re seeing different dynamics in Caboolture and Bribie Island, with the count ping-ponging as booths from either end report. If you don’t live in Australia, why would you care?

If you're an Australian you'd care about the federal government election because the country represents you and makes foreign policy decisions that impact you.
Also they make decisions which impact you and your assets/superannuation etc that you've left in Australia.

However state elections. It's bizarre would give a toss about who is elected in a state in which they don't live.
If it doesn't affect you, then really they can elect the communist party for all I care.

Federal though, that's a whole different ball game. We all care there.

But people on here not from QLD happy or disappointed at a result that doesn't affect them?
Most odd...

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:40pm:

ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:38pm: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:08pm: ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:06pm: And LNP disrespect for the electorate continues. As usual the overwhelming message the LNP are saying they have received from the QLD people is that they (the LNP) did not effectively communicate their message and they have to do better next time. Not that their policies are wrong but that they failed to communicate them. Why we keep tolerating these people disrespecting us some absolutely confounding. I suppose this is giving us a bit of a break from your paranoia over climate change eh? :) Me thinks you're a lot more p!ssed off with the result then you pretend My friend I couldn't give a monkeys toss. It don't affect me a single cent. Hence my point, if you don't live in QLD why care?

Don't your money hiding inlaws live in QLD? You care about your wife's family?

Incredibly poor form.
They'd be the only older generation not trusting of banks you reckon???

And yes they are up in Townsville and pretty immune to any change in Government.

Setanta wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:28pm:

Don't your money hiding inlaws live in QLD? You care about your wife's family?

apparently not


Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:27pm:

If it doesn't affect you, then really they can elect the communist party for all I care.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:27pm:

Karnal wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:44pm: MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:40pm: Quote: 9.35pm. Then there’s Maryborough, which Labor will win if Chris Foley doesn’t finish ahead of them. With 27 of 30 booths, the primary votes are 29.6% for the LNP, 25.3% for Labor and 22.1% for Foley. Whether Foley closes the gap depends on preferences, which we won’t know about this evening. That includes 12.6% for Palmer United and 10.4% for others. 9.30pm. So here’s the seats I’ll be over like a rash from now on, namely Labor’s shortest path to 45 off its base of 42: Ferny Grove. Labor leads by 0.9%, three booths outstanding. Mansfield. 50.0-50.0, four booths outstanding. Mount Ommaney. Labor leads by 0.7%, four booths outstanding. Whitsunday. Labor leads by 0.3%, four booths outstanding. 9.26pm. Pumicestone has moved hard to Labor: lead now of 3.0%. Perhaps we’re seeing different dynamics in Caboolture and Bribie Island, with the count ping-ponging as booths from either end report. If you don’t live in Australia, why would you care? If you're an Australian you'd care about the federal government election because the country represents you and makes foreign policy decisions that impact you. Also they make decisions which impact you and your assets/superannuation etc that you've left in Australia. However state elections. It's bizarre would give a toss about who is elected in a state in which they don't live. If it doesn't affect you, then really they can elect the communist party for all I care. Federal though, that's a whole different ball game. We all care there. But people on here not from QLD happy or disappointed at a result that doesn't affect them? Most odd...

It's not odd at all. The more states libs lose the better it is for all of Australia. QLD is a part of us(Australia) and just over the border from me. We want the best for them and I'm glad to see them make their decision.

Setanta wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:28pm:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:40pm: ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:38pm: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:08pm: ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:06pm: And LNP disrespect for the electorate continues. As usual the overwhelming message the LNP are saying they have received from the QLD people is that they (the LNP) did not effectively communicate their message and they have to do better next time. Not that their policies are wrong but that they failed to communicate them. Why we keep tolerating these people disrespecting us some absolutely confounding. I suppose this is giving us a bit of a break from your paranoia over climate change eh? :) Me thinks you're a lot more p!ssed off with the result then you pretend My friend I couldn't give a monkeys toss. It don't affect me a single cent. Hence my point, if you don't live in QLD why care? Don't your money hiding inlaws live in QLD? You care about your wife's family?

Why would he care about them? They don’t make money for him.

They won’t even pay his fines.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:30pm:

Incredibly poor form. They'd be the only older generation not trusting of banks you reckon??? And yes they are up in Townsville and pretty immune to any change in Government.

Why would they not trust a bank? Funds under $100,000 are govt guaranteed, open multiple accounts at multiple banks. If the banks go belly up their cash won't be worth toilet paper anyway.

Andrei..when QLD loses a state election, it therefore strongly indicates that the Federal Govt. also loses their next election,that is why most on here are so excited, they want Abbott gone- not that you care anyway right?

Setanta wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:38pm:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 10:30pm: Incredibly poor form. They'd be the only older generation not trusting of banks you reckon??? And yes they are up in Townsville and pretty immune to any change in Government. Why would they not trust a bank? Funds under $100,000 are govt guaranteed, open multiple accounts at multiple banks. If the banks go belly up their cash won't be worth toilet paper anyway.

It's an older generation mindset isn't it?
That's just how they are. It's not uncommon for people in their 70s to think this way.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:40pm:

It's an older generation mindset isn't it?

nope


Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:40pm:

It's not uncommon for people in their 70s to think this way.

yes it is

Maybe the Queensland Labor government will have an amnesty on unpaid fines.

Andrei would care then.

I don’t vote for political parties as my user name implies. The LNP are a party of businessmen for businessmen. This is true of most conservative parties worldwide. They don’t see anything worthwhile beyond the bottom line. Nothing intrinsically wrong with that point of view until they try to set themselves up for when they are out of office by duping the tax payer. Which is just what the LNP hope to do with the asset sales.

43 Labor
40 LNP
2 Katter Party
1 Independent
3 Doubtful


Quote:

Mansfield OBEID, Adam       ALP       9,468      50.07 WALKER, Ian       LNP       9,443      49.93 Exhausted             555       Maryborough MADDERN, Anne       LNP       6,925      47.64 SAUNDERS, Bruce       ALP       7,610      52.36 Exhausted             4,719       Whitsunday COSTIGAN, Jason       LNP       12,098      50.17 TAHA, Bronwyn       ALP       12,014      49.83 Exhausted             2,748

Quote:

Maryborough hinging on whether Foley finishes 2nd or 3rd. HUXHAM, Damian       ONP       1,691      7.14 MADDERN, Anne       LNP       6,925      29.24 WEBB, Katherine       GRN       554      2.34 ANDERSON, Stephen       PUP       2,995      12.65 FOLEY, Christopher             5,223      22.05 WATTIE, Russell             232      0.98 SAUNDERS, Bruce       ALP       6,065      25.61

With these numbers, it's hard to be super confident of Labor getting to 45.

Could be some interesting negotiations in the next couple of days.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:07pm:

Bam wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 10:06pm: Bundaberg ... 22.4% swing to ALP. That's got to hurt. I'll have a rum to celebrate.

Yay!!!  Two of my former High School Mates ran the ALP) campaign there.

Well done, Ladies!

john_g wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:07pm:

Has anyone else noticed how Labor is saying that federal issues played a role, and the Coalition saying that it was exclusively state-based, and last Qld election, it was the reverse? What lying little arseholes both sides!

I think you're seeing what you want to see.  Many, if not all, the Qld LNP members I saw interviewed tonight in the ABC studio were quick to blame Tony Abbott and the Fed Govt for much of what went wrong tonight and one of the members even referred to the "Abbott factor" and speculated that if Abbott didn't pull something out of the bag at his Monday press club speech it would be all over for him. To be quite frank. I don't know how much more vocal they could have been on the issue.      

Hang on a minute longy had numerous posts Labor didn't stand a chance, oh righties , we will put you on the couch when abort gets SACKED, or you could wait until NSW election to lose another one  >:(, go on , have a go righties bahahahhahhahhahahahahhhaha. Go team implosive  :)

Its time wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 11:13pm:

Hang on a minute longy had numerous posts Labor didn't stand a chance, oh righties , we will put you on the couch when abort gets SACKED, or you could wait until NSW election to lose another one  >:(, go on , have a go righties bahahahhahhahhahahahahhhaha. Go team implosive  :)

Longy’s left.

issuevoter wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:56pm:

I don’t vote for political parties as my user name implies. The LNP are a party of businessmen for businessmen. This is true of most conservative parties worldwide. They don’t see anything worthwhile beyond the bottom line. Nothing intrinsically wrong with that point of view until they try to set themselves up for when they are out of office by duping the tax payer. Which is just what the LNP hope to do with the asset sales.

The issue though I've always had with parties of the left is they try and take more and more of what I work hard for so they can hand it to losers.
At least guys like Howard gave me something back for a change.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:21pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 10:12pm: Bam wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 10:06pm: Bundaberg ... 22.4% swing to ALP. That's got to hurt. uh oh - look out, the libs are whinging of an evil union conspiracy in Bundaberg already on the ABC. I don't know anything about this election gandalf as I haven't followed a single second of it but the ALP and Trade Unions do have some past form on underhand tactics. I read "To the Bitter End" and the tactics agreed by the Union movement in 2007 v Howard were pretty sordid and dishonest.

Oh but you got to admit Andrei, the association between the Business Unions and the LNP are incestuously close and employ some of the most sordid tactics in Aust politics.  And the way the Business Unions have been in bed with the Abbott government since the election with all these closed door lobbyists, overseas Govt/Business jaunts to stitch up free trade agreements for themselves and appointments to conduct so called "independent enquiries".  If the workers Unions had done anything like that with labor you would have been up in arms but you totally ignore the dishonesty and corruption of it when the Business Unions and the LNP do it.  Again its this age of entitlement where your side of politics believes that you are entitled to run politicians and rort the system.   

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:27pm:

Karnal wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:44pm: MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 9:40pm: Quote: 9.35pm. Then there’s Maryborough, which Labor will win if Chris Foley doesn’t finish ahead of them. With 27 of 30 booths, the primary votes are 29.6% for the LNP, 25.3% for Labor and 22.1% for Foley. Whether Foley closes the gap depends on preferences, which we won’t know about this evening. That includes 12.6% for Palmer United and 10.4% for others. 9.30pm. So here’s the seats I’ll be over like a rash from now on, namely Labor’s shortest path to 45 off its base of 42: Ferny Grove. Labor leads by 0.9%, three booths outstanding. Mansfield. 50.0-50.0, four booths outstanding. Mount Ommaney. Labor leads by 0.7%, four booths outstanding. Whitsunday. Labor leads by 0.3%, four booths outstanding. 9.26pm. Pumicestone has moved hard to Labor: lead now of 3.0%. Perhaps we’re seeing different dynamics in Caboolture and Bribie Island, with the count ping-ponging as booths from either end report. If you don’t live in Australia, why would you care? If you're an Australian you'd care about the federal government election because the country represents you and makes foreign policy decisions that impact you. Also they make decisions which impact you and your assets/superannuation etc that you've left in Australia. However state elections. It's bizarre would give a toss about who is elected in a state in which they don't live. If it doesn't affect you, then really they can elect the communist party for all I care. Federal though, that's a whole different ball game. We all care there. But people on here not from QLD happy or disappointed at a result that doesn't affect them? Most odd...

Apart from most people (though not you) caring about their fellow man, what you seem to be missing is that some state elections and especially this Qld election, have very powerful implications for the federal government.  There is a very big chance this election result will change not just the leader but also the policy direction of the Federal Government, that impacts on people all over the country. Now if you don't understand that maybe you should give up watching politics and just throw yourself into your accounting work where you may not be out of your depth.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 11:22pm:

issuevoter wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 10:56pm: I don’t vote for political parties as my user name implies. The LNP are a party of businessmen for businessmen. This is true of most conservative parties worldwide. They don’t see anything worthwhile beyond the bottom line. Nothing intrinsically wrong with that point of view until they try to set themselves up for when they are out of office by duping the tax payer. Which is just what the LNP hope to do with the asset sales. The issue though I've always had with parties of the left is they try and take more and more of what I work hard for so they can hand it to losers. At least guys like Howard gave me something back for a change.

How long were you here for?

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 11:22pm:

issuevoter wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 10:56pm: I don’t vote for political parties as my user name implies. The LNP are a party of businessmen for businessmen. This is true of most conservative parties worldwide. They don’t see anything worthwhile beyond the bottom line. Nothing intrinsically wrong with that point of view until they try to set themselves up for when they are out of office by duping the tax payer. Which is just what the LNP hope to do with the asset sales. The issue though I've always had with parties of the left is they try and take more and more of what I work hard for so they can hand it to losers. At least guys like Howard gave me something back for a change.

Let's just conveniently ignore the $10 billion we taxpayers pump into fossil fuel subsidies, and the trillions dished off world wide. Greatest con ever given that burning anything beyond a third of the world's reserves takes us into extremely dangerous territory.

Money for nothing.

Karnal wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 11:32pm:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 11:22pm: issuevoter wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 10:56pm: I don’t vote for political parties as my user name implies. The LNP are a party of businessmen for businessmen. This is true of most conservative parties worldwide. They don’t see anything worthwhile beyond the bottom line. Nothing intrinsically wrong with that point of view until they try to set themselves up for when they are out of office by duping the tax payer. Which is just what the LNP hope to do with the asset sales. The issue though I've always had with parties of the left is they try and take more and more of what I work hard for so they can hand it to losers. At least guys like Howard gave me something back for a change. How long were you here for?

but how long he was here doesn't matter to Andrei. If, while he was here he paid $1 tax, he wants it back, otherwise he sees it as him being cheated.  Right wing philosophy. Take all the benefits you can and pay nothing.   

MOTR wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 11:36pm:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 11:22pm: issuevoter wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 10:56pm: I don’t vote for political parties as my user name implies. The LNP are a party of businessmen for businessmen. This is true of most conservative parties worldwide. They don’t see anything worthwhile beyond the bottom line. Nothing intrinsically wrong with that point of view until they try to set themselves up for when they are out of office by duping the tax payer. Which is just what the LNP hope to do with the asset sales. The issue though I've always had with parties of the left is they try and take more and more of what I work hard for so they can hand it to losers. At least guys like Howard gave me something back for a change. Let's just conveniently ignore the $10 billion we taxpayers pump into fossil fuel subsidies, and the trillions dished off world wide. Greatest con ever given that burning anything beyond a third of the world's reserves takes us into extremely dangerous territory. Money for nothing.

Ah now you hit an area that comes under my set of P&Ls in AsiaPac.
Mainly our subsidy on Australian based upstream technology.

Do you know what those subsidies are for?

They are tax rebates based on R&D to improve processes for cleaner air, damage to extraction points, reduced seepage of hazardous by products in the drill process.
You don't think you get anything there?

How about cleaner environment, cheaper energy sourcing, local jobs, taxable revenue streams from our Australian subsidies....

Every part of the energy based subsidy scheme is pumped back into process improvements which benefit you the Australian taxpayer.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 12:14am:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 11:36pm: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 11:22pm: issuevoter wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 10:56pm: I don’t vote for political parties as my user name implies. The LNP are a party of businessmen for businessmen. This is true of most conservative parties worldwide. They don’t see anything worthwhile beyond the bottom line. Nothing intrinsically wrong with that point of view until they try to set themselves up for when they are out of office by duping the tax payer. Which is just what the LNP hope to do with the asset sales. The issue though I've always had with parties of the left is they try and take more and more of what I work hard for so they can hand it to losers. At least guys like Howard gave me something back for a change. Let's just conveniently ignore the $10 billion we taxpayers pump into fossil fuel subsidies, and the trillions dished off world wide. Greatest con ever given that burning anything beyond a third of the world's reserves takes us into extremely dangerous territory. Money for nothing. Ah now you hit an area that comes under my set of P&Ls in AsiaPac. Mainly our subsidy on Australian based upstream technology. Do you know what those subsidies are for? They are tax rebates based on R&D to improve processes for cleaner air, damage to extraction points, reduced seepage of hazardous by products in the drill process. You don't think you get anything there? How about cleaner environment, cheaper energy sourcing, local jobs, taxable revenue streams from our Australian subsidies.... Every part of the energy based subsidy scheme is pumped back into process improvements which benefit you the Australian taxpayer.

Sounds like you don't need any "direct action" subsidies, sorry .... donations.

ImSpartacus2 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 11:41pm:

Karnal wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 11:32pm: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 11:22pm: issuevoter wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 10:56pm: I don’t vote for political parties as my user name implies. The LNP are a party of businessmen for businessmen. This is true of most conservative parties worldwide. They don’t see anything worthwhile beyond the bottom line. Nothing intrinsically wrong with that point of view until they try to set themselves up for when they are out of office by duping the tax payer. Which is just what the LNP hope to do with the asset sales. The issue though I've always had with parties of the left is they try and take more and more of what I work hard for so they can hand it to losers. At least guys like Howard gave me something back for a change. How long were you here for? but how long he was here doesn't matter to Andrei. If, while he was here he paid $1 tax, he wants it back, otherwise he sees it as him being cheated.  Right wing philosophy. Take all the benefits you can and pay nothing.

True. Andrei said he went to school here for two years, and only voted in one erection. Any tax he paid was on a rental property he inherited, which he sold long ago and has no assets left in Australia. He was very happy about that, because the leftards were in power then and the country was going to the dogs.

Having no assets left in Australia, he only has a debt: one unpaid fine for putting his feet on the seats, which he shouldn’t have to pay because the security guard was a trumped up little darkie with a chip on his shoulder.

Why should he care about the Queensland government? He’ll be packing the in laws in Townsville off to Shady Pines as soon as they sign the papers.

Until then, he’s asset negative.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 12:14am:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 11:36pm: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 11:22pm: issuevoter wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 10:56pm: I don’t vote for political parties as my user name implies. The LNP are a party of businessmen for businessmen. This is true of most conservative parties worldwide. They don’t see anything worthwhile beyond the bottom line. Nothing intrinsically wrong with that point of view until they try to set themselves up for when they are out of office by duping the tax payer. Which is just what the LNP hope to do with the asset sales. The issue though I've always had with parties of the left is they try and take more and more of what I work hard for so they can hand it to losers. At least guys like Howard gave me something back for a change. Let's just conveniently ignore the $10 billion we taxpayers pump into fossil fuel subsidies, and the trillions dished off world wide. Greatest con ever given that burning anything beyond a third of the world's reserves takes us into extremely dangerous territory. Money for nothing. Ah now you hit an area that comes under my set of P&Ls in AsiaPac. Mainly our subsidy on Australian based upstream technology. Do you know what those subsidies are for? They are tax rebates based on R&D to improve processes for cleaner air, damage to extraction points, reduced seepage of hazardous by products in the drill process. You don't think you get anything there? How about cleaner environment, cheaper energy sourcing, local jobs, taxable revenue streams from our Australian subsidies.... Every part of the energy based subsidy scheme is pumped back into process improvements which benefit you the Australian taxpayer.

And now he’s spruiking the benefits of environmental subsidies because they benefit his P&Ls in AsiaPac.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 11:22pm:

issuevoter wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 10:56pm: I don’t vote for political parties as my user name implies. The LNP are a party of businessmen for businessmen. This is true of most conservative parties worldwide. They don’t see anything worthwhile beyond the bottom line. Nothing intrinsically wrong with that point of view until they try to set themselves up for when they are out of office by duping the tax payer. Which is just what the LNP hope to do with the asset sales. The issue though I've always had with parties of the left is they try and take more and more of what I work hard for so they can hand it to losers. At least guys like Howard gave me something back for a change.

Howard's was one of if not the the highest taxing govts we have had recently. Who did he take it from to give to you?

Setanta wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 12:38am:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 11:22pm: issuevoter wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 10:56pm: I don’t vote for political parties as my user name implies. The LNP are a party of businessmen for businessmen. This is true of most conservative parties worldwide. They don’t see anything worthwhile beyond the bottom line. Nothing intrinsically wrong with that point of view until they try to set themselves up for when they are out of office by duping the tax payer. Which is just what the LNP hope to do with the asset sales. The issue though I've always had with parties of the left is they try and take more and more of what I work hard for so they can hand it to losers. At least guys like Howard gave me something back for a change. Howard's was one of if not the the highest taxing govts we have had recently. Who did he take it from to give to you?

Not Howard, Abbott. Andrei’s happy because his P&Ls in AsiaPac get Direct Action subsidies off the Abbott government.

No wonder Andrei only cares about the Feds. The Queensland government isn’t slinging in a thing.

That’s right. Australia is open for business.

Andrei thinks that income tax is the only tax, and  has yet to arrive at the simple Nirvana that governments never take less tax, but only shuffle the board so as to recoup the same or more while making it look like they are giving you something.

Besides, I thought Andrei was a Pom born and bred and he often confuses the Brit 85% or whatever income tax with Australia... it's jet lag from all those free flights.

Actually he's a tremendous Walter Mitty....

ABC seat count 44 Labor, 33LNP, 71% counted


Hmmm Galaxy: 57-43 to Labor assume that is Federal poll.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 12:14am:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 11:36pm: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 11:22pm: issuevoter wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 10:56pm: I don’t vote for political parties as my user name implies. The LNP are a party of businessmen for businessmen. This is true of most conservative parties worldwide. They don’t see anything worthwhile beyond the bottom line. Nothing intrinsically wrong with that point of view until they try to set themselves up for when they are out of office by duping the tax payer. Which is just what the LNP hope to do with the asset sales. The issue though I've always had with parties of the left is they try and take more and more of what I work hard for so they can hand it to losers. At least guys like Howard gave me something back for a change. Let's just conveniently ignore the $10 billion we taxpayers pump into fossil fuel subsidies, and the trillions dished off world wide. Greatest con ever given that burning anything beyond a third of the world's reserves takes us into extremely dangerous territory. Money for nothing. Ah now you hit an area that comes under my set of P&Ls in AsiaPac. Mainly our subsidy on Australian based upstream technology. Do you know what those subsidies are for? They are tax rebates based on R&D to improve processes for cleaner air, damage to extraction points, reduced seepage of hazardous by products in the drill process. You don't think you get anything there? How about cleaner environment, cheaper energy sourcing, local jobs, taxable revenue streams from our Australian subsidies.... Every part of the energy based subsidy scheme is pumped back into process improvements which benefit you the Australian taxpayer.

Misleading once again.

That's where a fraction of these subsidies go.

Are you some sort of con artist, Andrei.

Quote:

Poll Question: how many years take for labor to balance the budget?

You understand that when the Abbott government came to power in 2013 they advised that the next projected surplus would be in 2024 ?

That is that the Liberals were promising deficit budgets for 11 years, they have started by producing substantially greater deficits that continue to blow out further by the day.

Why do you think that Labor can turn it around in 3 years or less ?

I would think it would take 3 years just for Labor to get it back on the track they had it before 2013. They will probably need a term to undo the additional mess the Liberals have made.

Dnarever wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 7:54am:

Why do you think that Labor can turn it around in 3 years or less ?

abbott can take as long as he needs, even if that 11 yrs blows out to 20, they will never complain

labor needs to bring a surplus in 12 months or its proof that they are bad economic managers

the logic of the rightards :D :D :D :D

John Smith wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 8:06am:

Dnarever wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 7:54am: Why do you think that Labor can turn it around in 3 years or less ? abbott can take as long as he needs, even if that 11 yrs blows out to 20, they will never complain labor needs to bring a surplus in 12 months or its proof that they are bad economic managers the logic of the rightards :D :D :D :D

All this 'surplus' idiocy is a bad joke, and a serious misrepresentation.

Debt is not a bad thing if it results in something positive (pink batts, BER, Snowy
Scheme, birth of the Holden etc), and is a sustainable debt (meaning we have the
ability to service it).

It is bad if it is frittered away on trivialities, bribes to vested interests, wasted on
ideologically-driven witch-hunts against previous governments and their achieve-
ments, or added-to by poor decisions like cutting-off revenue streams (carbon tax
and MRRT, throwing people out of work by bad free-trade deals etc).

Yes, we seem to usually be in debt under Labor. But things get done, things get
built, the needy are catered for. And we always have a good gredit-rating (AAA,
the best you can get - thanks, Wayne!).

Once the Libs get in, expenditure on 'good works' and infrastructure come to a
screaming halt, welfare gets slashed, unemployment rises. Yes, there MAY be a
surplus, but it's not guaranteed because Libs tend to 'leak' money to their backers
and others (ICAC, anyone?).

They'll then claim that their surplus is some kind of 'future fund' for a 'rainy day'
then spend years vilifying their opponents for actually using it when that rainy day
(the GFC) actually arrives.

What matters is not whether you are in surplus or debt, but the kind of debt, the
ability to service it, and the reason for incurring the debt in the first place.

I'd rather move forward under Labor, and carry a bit of debt, than stagnate or
regress under the coservatives while they hoard and sit on a surplus.

Only a total fool wouldn't.

Kat wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 11:21am:

John Smith wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 8:06am: Dnarever wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 7:54am: Why do you think that Labor can turn it around in 3 years or less ? abbott can take as long as he needs, even if that 11 yrs blows out to 20, they will never complain labor needs to bring a surplus in 12 months or its proof that they are bad economic managers the logic of the rightards :D :D :D :D All this 'surplus' idiocy is a bad joke, and a serious misrepresentation. Debt is not a bad thing if it results in something positive (pink batts, BER, Snowy Scheme, birth of the Holden etc), and is a sustainable debt (meaning we have the ability to service it). It is bad if it is frittered away on trivialities, bribes to vested interests, wasted on ideologically-driven witch-hunts against previous governments and their achieve- ments, or added-to by poor decisions like cutting-off revenue streams (carbon tax and MRRT, throwing people out of work by bad free-trade deals etc). Yes, we seem to usually be in debt under Labor. But things get done, things get built, the needy are catered for. And we always have a good gredit-rating (AAA, the best you can get - thanks, Wayne!). Once the Libs get in, expenditure on 'good works' and infrastructure come to a screaming halt, welfare gets slashed, unemployment rises. Yes, there MAY be a surplus, but it's not guaranteed because Libs tend to 'leak' money to their backers and others (ICAC, anyone?). They'll then claim that their surplus is some kind of 'future fund' for a 'rainy day' then spend years vilifying their opponents for actually using it when that rainy day (the GFC) actually arrives. What matters is not whether you are in surplus or debt, but the kind of debt, the ability to service it, and the reason for incurring the debt in the first place. I'd rather move forward under Labor, and carry a bit of debt, than stagnate or regress under the coservatives while they hoard and sit on a surplus. Only a total fool wouldn't.

Well said.

Its time wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 11:42am:

Well said.

Thank you. :-)

It's probably wasted on some, but...

Its time wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 11:42am:

Kat wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 11:21am: John Smith wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 8:06am: Dnarever wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 7:54am: Why do you think that Labor can turn it around in 3 years or less ? abbott can take as long as he needs, even if that 11 yrs blows out to 20, they will never complain labor needs to bring a surplus in 12 months or its proof that they are bad economic managers the logic of the rightards :D :D :D :D All this 'surplus' idiocy is a bad joke, and a serious misrepresentation. Debt is not a bad thing if it results in something positive (pink batts, BER, Snowy Scheme, birth of the Holden etc), and is a sustainable debt (meaning we have the ability to service it). It is bad if it is frittered away on trivialities, bribes to vested interests, wasted on ideologically-driven witch-hunts against previous governments and their achieve- ments, or added-to by poor decisions like cutting-off revenue streams (carbon tax and MRRT, throwing people out of work by bad free-trade deals etc). Yes, we seem to usually be in debt under Labor. But things get done, things get built, the needy are catered for. And we always have a good gredit-rating (AAA, the best you can get - thanks, Wayne!). Once the Libs get in, expenditure on 'good works' and infrastructure come to a screaming halt, welfare gets slashed, unemployment rises. Yes, there MAY be a surplus, but it's not guaranteed because Libs tend to 'leak' money to their backers and others (ICAC, anyone?). They'll then claim that their surplus is some kind of 'future fund' for a 'rainy day' then spend years vilifying their opponents for actually using it when that rainy day (the GFC) actually arrives. What matters is not whether you are in surplus or debt, but the kind of debt, the ability to service it, and the reason for incurring the debt in the first place. I'd rather move forward under Labor, and carry a bit of debt, than stagnate or regress under the coservatives while they hoard and sit on a surplus. Only a total fool wouldn't. Well said.

Ditto. I am so over imbeciles  saying governments need to run surpluses . If governments are running surpluses that means the maggots are taxing us too much.

There is a deficit that needs addressing, and so higher taxes are something your going to have to get used too skips- but applied fairly instead of imposing austerity on the poor- taxes are a fact of life.

skippy. wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 12:07pm:

I am so over imbeciles  saying governments need to run surpluses . If governments are running surpluses that means the maggots are taxing us too much.

A surplus budget can be a good thing if it is a modest surplus in a balanced budget.

Massive surpluses can be a problem though. As you point out, they could be taxing too much. Other possibilities exist. There could be a boom going on and the funds are not being invested. The tax take could be okay but not enough money is being spent where it is needed.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:19pm:

MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:07pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:04pm: MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 6:10pm: Quote: An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble. Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent. Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government. The polls close in just under an hour. Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing. Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk. "These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said. I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not. at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election.  Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident. It sounds like there was too much of a metropolitan bias in these exit polls.  Although they were right about Newman and the LNP being in danger. you needed an exit poll to tell you that???? exit polls are intrinsically hopeless.  Self-select, hopelessly biased and invariably wrong. Even when the get the winner right, they miss the margin by buckets.

Has longy  posted since this? I expect he is tucked up under his rock frantically swaying back and forth.

The quirkiness of our preferential system on display in the electorate of Maryborough - where the race is between the 2nd and 3rd placed candidate. It is already known that the sitting LNP candidate, who will get the most first preferences, has already lost. Whoever ends up 2nd place between the labor and independent candidates will win on preferences.

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 2:40pm:

The quirkiness of our preferential system on display in the electorate of Maryborough - where the race is between the 2nd and 3rd placed candidate. It is already known that the sitting LNP candidate, who will get the most first preferences, has already lost. Whoever ends up 2nd place between the labor and independent candidates will win on preferences.

It is thought to be an ALP win.  At 1.47pm Qld time with 75.4% of the vote counted:

Ind:               257
Green:            599
ONP:              1831
PUP:               3269
Ind:                5695
ALP:                6724
LNP:               7594

skippy. wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 1:48pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:19pm: MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:07pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 7:04pm: MOTR wrote on Jan 31st, 2015 at 6:10pm: Quote: An exit poll is showing Queensland's LNP government led by Campbell Newman is in real trouble. Nine's Galaxy exit poll of 17 electorates is showing a swing against the Liberal National Party of 16.8 per cent. Labor needs a universal swing just over 12 per cent to snatch back government. The polls close in just under an hour. Labor currently holds just nine of the 89 seats in parliament after the 2012 thrashing. Former Labor premier Peter Beattie told the Nine election panel if the exit polls translate across the state, it would be a "boilover result" for Labor led by Annastacia Palaszczuk. "These figures are extraordinary but I want to see the real thing," Mr Beattie said. I thought Annastacia had blown it, but perhaps not. at one stage exit polls predicted Rudd would win the last election.  Exit polls are wrong half the time because they are essentially rubbish but even rubbish can be right about half the time - by accident. It sounds like there was too much of a metropolitan bias in these exit polls.  Although they were right about Newman and the LNP being in danger. you needed an exit poll to tell you that???? exit polls are intrinsically hopeless.  Self-select, hopelessly biased and invariably wrong. Even when the get the winner right, they miss the margin by buckets. Has longy  posted since this? I expect he is tucked up under his rock frantically swaying back and forth.

SNAP!!!!

;)

Chris Foley was unseated in 2012 by the LNP by a margin of just 0.3%. Unfortunately for him his primary vote has slipped even further. Looks like the gap between him and labor has increased since last night.

Independent MP Peter Wellington says he's happy to help Labor form a minority government in Queensland, because he wants the Liberal National Party gone.

Incredibly, Labor is on track to govern in its own right after being left with a mere seven seats in the state's 89-seat parliament at the 2012 election.

But there is a possibility Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk may need to call on the support of Katter's Australian Party MPs and Mr Wellington to form a minority government.


Mr Wellington says if that's the case, he won't ask anything of Ms Palaszczuk.

He'll just be happy to see an end to the LNP's privatisation plans and its "arrogant" leadership style.

http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/02/01/00/52/labor-on-cusp-of-return-to-power-in-qld#9RYlYOVFCghYGgh8.99

The ABC site has 85 seats decided - 43 to labor, 39 to LNP and 3 to other. That leaves 4 still in doubt. Labor just need two of those. One of them - Maryborough as mentioned above - is looking more and more labor. The other listed as 'ALP ahead' - Mansfield - is still too close. Presuming the other two go to LNP (its said that once LNP are ahead they usually stay ahead), its really a 50-50 bet at this stage as to whether labor will have a one seat majority or will form government with support from one independent. If that quote from Wellington is true, then Labor shouldn't need any KAP support.

Roll on NSW election, nobody thought Labor could pull off the stunning victory in QLD , oh my righties look at the damage Abort has done, this will be remembered for generations.

what a epic fail

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 3:07pm:

The ABC site has 85 seats decided - 43 to labor, 39 to LNP and 3 to other. That leaves 4 still in doubt. Labor just need two of those. One of them - Maryborough as mentioned above - is looking more and more labor. The other listed as 'ALP ahead' - Mansfield - is still too close. Presuming the other two go to LNP (its said that once LNP are ahead they usually stay ahead), its really a 50-50 bet at this stage as to whether labor will have a one seat majority or will form government with support from one independent. If that quote from Wellington is true, then Labor shouldn't need any KAP support.

It'll be true.  On a prior occasions, Wellington handed Government to the ALP (Beattie).  He has been attacked viciously by the LNP up here (his is 'my' seat) and has always been highly critical of LNP corruption.  He is 50% PUP.

Aussie wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 3:25pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 3:07pm: The ABC site has 85 seats decided - 43 to labor, 39 to LNP and 3 to other. That leaves 4 still in doubt. Labor just need two of those. One of them - Maryborough as mentioned above - is looking more and more labor. The other listed as 'ALP ahead' - Mansfield - is still too close. Presuming the other two go to LNP (its said that once LNP are ahead they usually stay ahead), its really a 50-50 bet at this stage as to whether labor will have a one seat majority or will form government with support from one independent. If that quote from Wellington is true, then Labor shouldn't need any KAP support. It'll be true.  On a prior occasions, Wellington handed Government to the ALP (Beattie).  He has been attacked viciously by the LNP up here (his is 'my' seat) and has always been highly critical of LNP corruption.  He is 50% PUP.

so how meany seats got PUP bums on them aussie... you being at the engine room I am sure you have the answer..

cods wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 3:27pm:

Aussie wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 3:25pm: polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 3:07pm: The ABC site has 85 seats decided - 43 to labor, 39 to LNP and 3 to other. That leaves 4 still in doubt. Labor just need two of those. One of them - Maryborough as mentioned above - is looking more and more labor. The other listed as 'ALP ahead' - Mansfield - is still too close. Presuming the other two go to LNP (its said that once LNP are ahead they usually stay ahead), its really a 50-50 bet at this stage as to whether labor will have a one seat majority or will form government with support from one independent. If that quote from Wellington is true, then Labor shouldn't need any KAP support. It'll be true.  On a prior occasions, Wellington handed Government to the ALP (Beattie).  He has been attacked viciously by the LNP up here (his is 'my' seat) and has always been highly critical of LNP corruption.  He is 50% PUP. so how meany seats got PUP bums on them aussie... you being at the engine room I am sure you have the answer..

None....a slim chance in Callide to unseat the Deputy Premier 'Boofhead' Jeff Seeney.

If that happens, Palmer will have the trifecta...way beyond his expectations.

1.  Goodbye Campbell Newmann.
2.  Long shot that the LNP lose Government, and
3.  Longer shot that PUP could unseat Seeney.

Ultimately, for the next Federal election, PUP voting numbers/% indicate at least one more Senator.

cods wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 3:27pm:

Aussie wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 3:25pm: polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 3:07pm: The ABC site has 85 seats decided - 43 to labor, 39 to LNP and 3 to other. That leaves 4 still in doubt. Labor just need two of those. One of them - Maryborough as mentioned above - is looking more and more labor. The other listed as 'ALP ahead' - Mansfield - is still too close. Presuming the other two go to LNP (its said that once LNP are ahead they usually stay ahead), its really a 50-50 bet at this stage as to whether labor will have a one seat majority or will form government with support from one independent. If that quote from Wellington is true, then Labor shouldn't need any KAP support. It'll be true.  On a prior occasions, Wellington handed Government to the ALP (Beattie).  He has been attacked viciously by the LNP up here (his is 'my' seat) and has always been highly critical of LNP corruption.  He is 50% PUP. so how meany seats got PUP bums on them aussie... you being at the engine room I am sure you have the answer..

The 'meany seats' have all got LNP bums on them.....

;)

Its time wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 3:20pm:

Roll on NSW election, nobody thought Labor could pull off the stunning victory in QLD , oh my righties look at the damage Abort has done, this will be remembered for generations. what a epic fail

The funny thing is, having 'owned' its corruption, the NSW mob haven't actually been THAT bad
(closing the Newcastle rail line excepted).

Yeah, they're Libnats, but they don't seem to be so totally off the rails and out of control as the
mob up north or the tumour in our south-east (the ACT).

And yeah. I did vote for 'em. Suck that, rightards.

The Mole wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 10:38pm:

Andrei..when QLD loses a state election, it therefore strongly indicates that the Federal Govt. also loses their next election,that is why most on here are so excited, they want Abbott gone- not that you care anyway right?

yeah

cods wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 3:27pm:

so how meany seats got PUP bums on them aussie... you being at the engine room I am sure you have the answer..

You do seem to be in a niggly mood today, cods.

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 2:40pm:

The quirkiness of our preferential system on display in the electorate of Maryborough - where the race is between the 2nd and 3rd placed candidate. It is already known that the sitting LNP candidate, who will get the most first preferences, has already lost. Whoever ends up 2nd place between the labor and independent candidates will win on preferences.

The idiocy of the Australian system and an example of why I - along with a colossal majority in Britain - rejected it in the referendum.
The guy who got the most votes should win. End of story.

The Australian system is rubbish.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 9:04pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 2:40pm: The quirkiness of our preferential system on display in the electorate of Maryborough - where the race is between the 2nd and 3rd placed candidate. It is already known that the sitting LNP candidate, who will get the most first preferences, has already lost. Whoever ends up 2nd place between the labor and independent candidates will win on preferences. The idiocy of the Australian system and an example of why I - along with a colossal majority in Britain - rejected it in the referendum. The guy who got the most votes should win. End of story. The Australian system is rubbish.

You fool. The aussie system is the best in the world. If your first choice is out, why shouldn't your vote count? My suggestion to you is to stay in the UK.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 9:04pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 2:40pm: The quirkiness of our preferential system on display in the electorate of Maryborough - where the race is between the 2nd and 3rd placed candidate. It is already known that the sitting LNP candidate, who will get the most first preferences, has already lost. Whoever ends up 2nd place between the labor and independent candidates will win on preferences. The idiocy of the Australian system and an example of why I - along with a colossal majority in Britain - rejected it in the referendum. The guy who got the most votes should win. End of story. The Australian system is rubbish.

Why should anyone who gets less than 50% of the vote get the gig?  Isn't this about democracy?

The guy with "most votes" could conceivably be as low as 20-30%. The principle behind the preferential system is that the 70-80% who didn't elect that guy actually get a say. Preferential voting means that the candidate who more than 50% of the voters prefer will get in.

Quite simply, if you are interested in elections being decided by what the majority want, then preferential system is fairer.

Aussie wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 3:30pm:

cods wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 3:27pm: Aussie wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 3:25pm: polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 1st, 2015 at 3:07pm: The ABC site has 85 seats decided - 43 to labor, 39 to LNP and 3 to other. That leaves 4 still in doubt. Labor just need two of those. One of them - Maryborough as mentioned above - is looking more and more labor. The other listed as 'ALP ahead' - Mansfield - is still too close. Presuming the other two go to LNP (its said that once LNP are ahead they usually stay ahead), its really a 50-50 bet at this stage as to whether labor will have a one seat majority or will form government with support from one independent. If that quote from Wellington is true, then Labor shouldn't need any KAP support. It'll be true.  On a prior occasions, Wellington handed Government to the ALP (Beattie).  He has been attacked viciously by the LNP up here (his is 'my' seat) and has always been highly critical of LNP corruption.  He is 50% PUP. so how meany seats got PUP bums on them aussie... you being at the engine room I am sure you have the answer.. None....a slim chance in Callide to unseat the Deputy Premier 'Boofhead' Jeff Seeney. If that happens, Palmer will have the trifecta...way beyond his expectations. 1.  Goodbye Campbell Newmann. 2.  Long shot that the LNP lose Government, and 3.  Longer shot that PUP could unseat Seeney. Ultimately, for the next Federal election, PUP voting numbers/% indicate at least one more Senator.

Good hate from Palmer. It's this kind of rancour we need more of in government. War is peace. This is progress.

Or....democracy.

For what its worth, ABC has just changed Mansfield status to 'likely LNP retain'. This was the 50-50 seat I talked about that would likely determine if labor had a one seat majority or one seat short.

Hung parliament looking more likely - at this stage.

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 10:38am:

For what its worth, ABC has just changed Mansfield status to 'likely LNP retain'. This was the 50-50 seat I talked about that would likely determine if labor had a one seat majority or one seat short. Hung parliament looking more likely - at this stage.

What's the bet enough votes will now somehow be 'found' to get the Nazis over the line...  >:( >:( >:(

If so, the God help Queensland, the grubs WILL make them pay for nearly losing.

'Petty and petulant in defeat

Vindictive and vicious in victory'.

Neo-cons to a 'T'.

in case anyone is interested (probably not but anyway  ;))...

Yesterdays postal count caused a massive turnaround in Mansfield - where LNP went from a 25 vote deficit to a 495 vote lead.

Almost no chance of labor overhauling such a lead now.

So LNP seat count is shoring up on 42, with labor looking at 44 only - at best. But there is a very slight outside chance of labor losing one more (Ferny Grove or Maryborough).

In summary - hung parliament all but certain.

These are the possibilities as I see them:

1. labor 45, LNP 41, 3 other - labor majority of one (least likely)
2. labor 44, LNP 42, 3 other - labor forms government with support of 1 independent (most likely)
3. labor 43, LNP 42, 4 other - Foley wins in Maryborough - labor forms government with support of 2 independents (less likely)
4. labor 43 LNP 43, 3 other - Labor forms government with support of 2 independents (2nd least likely)

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:16pm:

in case anyone is interested (probably not but anyway  ;))... Yesterdays postal count caused a massive turnaround in Mansfield - where LNP went from a 25 vote deficit to a 495 vote lead. Almost no chance of labor overhauling such a lead now. So LNP seat count is shoring up on 42, with labor looking at 44 only - at best. But there is a very slight outside chance of labor losing one more (Ferny Grove or Maryborough). In summary - hung parliament all but certain. These are the possibilities as I see them: 1. labor 45, LNP 41, 3 other - labor majority of one (least likely) 2. labor 44, LNP 42, 3 other - labor forms government with support of 1 independent (most likely) 3. labor 43, LNP 42, 4 other - Foley wins in Maryborough - labor forms government with support of 2 independents (less likely) 4. labor 43 LNP 43, 3 other - Labor forms government with support of 2 independents (2nd least likely)

Some of us are... thanks for that.

Kat wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:09pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 2nd, 2015 at 10:38am: For what its worth, ABC has just changed Mansfield status to 'likely LNP retain'. This was the 50-50 seat I talked about that would likely determine if labor had a one seat majority or one seat short. Hung parliament looking more likely - at this stage. What's the bet enough votes will now somehow be 'found' to get the Nazis over the line...  >:( >:( >:( If so, the God help Queensland, the grubs WILL make them pay for nearly losing. 'Petty and petulant in defeat Vindictive and vicious in victory'. Neo-cons to a 'T'.

Not possible, fortunately. Labor are already confirmed on 43 seats with LNP on 39. There are only 5 undecided seats left - and even if Labor lose them all, they can only get to 43 (remembering that LNP are no longer in the race in Maryborough). And since we have 3 others (2 KAP and 1 independent - not sure who Foley would support, but his one vote wouldn't help the LNP anyway) who have all sworn not to support LNP, there really is no possibility of the LNP forming government.

correction: labor is confirmed only on 42 seats, not 43.

So in fact there is a 5th possibility: LNP 43, ALP 42, 4 other. In which case labor would still form government with support from the 3 confirmed 'others'.

This scenario would require labor losing Ferny Grove - which the ABC has already given away to labor, who currently holds an over 500 vote lead.

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:30pm:

Kat wrote on Feb 2nd, 2015 at 1:09pm: polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 2nd, 2015 at 10:38am: For what its worth, ABC has just changed Mansfield status to 'likely LNP retain'. This was the 50-50 seat I talked about that would likely determine if labor had a one seat majority or one seat short. Hung parliament looking more likely - at this stage. What's the bet enough votes will now somehow be 'found' to get the Nazis over the line...  >:( >:( >:( If so, the God help Queensland, the grubs WILL make them pay for nearly losing. 'Petty and petulant in defeat Vindictive and vicious in victory'. Neo-cons to a 'T'. Not possible, fortunately. Labor are already confirmed on 43 seats with LNP on 39. There are only 5 undecided seats left - and even if Labor lose them all, they can only get to 43 (remembering that LNP are no longer in the race in Maryborough). And since we have 3 others (2 KAP and 1 independent - not sure who Foley would support, but his one vote wouldn't help the LNP anyway) who have all sworn not to support LNP, there really is no possibility of the LNP forming government.

That's nice to know.

My figures weren't as up-to-date as yours.  ;)

Kat wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2015 at 1:09pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 2nd, 2015 at 10:38am: For what its worth, ABC has just changed Mansfield status to 'likely LNP retain'. This was the 50-50 seat I talked about that would likely determine if labor had a one seat majority or one seat short. Hung parliament looking more likely - at this stage. What's the bet enough votes will now somehow be 'found' to get the Nazis over the line...  >:( >:( >:( If so, the God help Queensland, the grubs WILL make them pay for nearly losing. 'Petty and petulant in defeat Vindictive and vicious in victory'. Neo-cons to a 'T'.

Good propaganda, Comrade. Hate is all we need, not analysis. This is progress.