Finally straight from the horses mouth. Until now we've heard coalition backbench disaffection through media leaks, at last we have a liberal with the balls to come out and spell out clearly and frankly the greivances Abbott's own team has against him. Full credit for this guy for the honesty.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/warren-entsch-plans-resolution-of-tony-abbott-leadership-drama/6066842



Quote:

Dr Jensen said Mr Abbott had been aware of his position for more than a week. "I told the Prime Minister that on January 23," he told the ABC. "I texted him, and this was prior to the Prince Philip [knighthood] debacle, I texted him and told him that he no longer enjoyed my support." Dr Jensen said the Prime Minister should be replaced as soon as possible. "In my view the more quickly you do this, the better," he said. Dr Jensen said he was no longer behind Mr Abbott because the Coalition was "not governing as we should be". "There is no strategic direction, the policy is not consistent and coherent," Dr Jensen said. He said Mr Abbott was an "outstanding" opposition leader and "probably the best that Australia's ever had, but he hasn't made the transition to prime minister". "He is not focused on policy. He is not focused on strategic direction. He is focused more on tactics and tactical policy," Dr Jensen said.

The interview with Dr Jensen is embedded in this article. Its fascinating listening - easily the most honest statements coming from a liberal since this whole fiasco started.

Poor Old Half Term Tony

Entsch and Brough.

Loving it!

funny how the docs wont cop the crap. is he a medical doc?
there was a doc in the LMP under campbell who also wouldnt put up with newman. must be the hippocritic (or is that cratic) oath.

aquascoot wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 8:08pm:

funny how the docs wont cop the crap. is he a medical doc? there was a doc in the LMP under campbell who also wouldnt put up with newman. must be the hippocritic (or is that cratic) oath.

Two.....Chris Davis and Bruce Flegg.  Flegg was once Opposition Leader and Davis was a Member of Cabinet.

Aussie wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 8:11pm:

aquascoot wrote on Feb 3rd, 2015 at 8:08pm: funny how the docs wont cop the crap. is he a medical doc? there was a doc in the LMP under campbell who also wouldnt put up with newman. must be the hippocritic (or is that cratic) oath. Two.....Chris Davis and Bruce Flegg.  Flegg was once Opposition Leader and Davis was a Member of Cabinet.

yeah Davis particularly was a very honourable bloke.
anyway, good on this bloke for speaking up.
I think the libs are wedged.
Theyve completely painted themselves into a corner.

This only makes me dislike the leadership group more as it shows they are fools and i cant tolerate fools.

aquascoot wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 8:14pm:

Aussie wrote on Feb 3rd, 2015 at 8:11pm: aquascoot wrote on Feb 3rd, 2015 at 8:08pm: funny how the docs wont cop the crap. is he a medical doc? there was a doc in the LMP under campbell who also wouldnt put up with newman. must be the hippocritic (or is that cratic) oath. Two.....Chris Davis and Bruce Flegg.  Flegg was once Opposition Leader and Davis was a Member of Cabinet. yeah Davis particularly was a very honourable bloke. anyway, good on this bloke for speaking up. I think the libs are wedged. Theyve completely painted themselves into a corner. This only makes me dislike the leadership group more as it shows they are fools and i cant tolerate fools.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3FrF7z76b8

Flegg:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzWJ3g-7dVg

Jensen is an engineer, something like that.

The man's moronic. If leading into power the most incompetent and reactive ministry we have ever seen, is the mark of the great opposition leader, God help up us

Isn't it time the libs called for a new election?

It's obvious from every poll since the last election that the people don't want them, they should do the right thing and call an early election instead of trying to feather their own pockets.

John Smith wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 8:52pm:

Isn't it time the libs called for a new election? It's obvious from every poll since the last election that the people don't want them, they should do the right thing and call an early election instead of trying to feather their own pockets.

He should have used that 'speech' yesterday to either declare
the leadership up-for-grabs, or name an election date.

Either would have been OK.

Instead, we got an hour of 'it's all Labor's fault'.

The man's a clueless idiot.

And more....

Link.

Quite frankly, I don't personally care who leads the LNP.  That brand is on the nose, but I do enjoy seeing them do what they condemned the ALP for doing with Gillard/Rudd.

Fairfax is reporting one source claiming the 'rebel' group numbers around 30 backbenchers. So thats one third of the entire government determined to see Abbot gone. And thats not even taking into account the disaffected who haven't yet declared open revolt.

Aussie wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 10:41pm:

Quite frankly, I don't personally care who leads the LNP.  That brand is on the nose, but I do enjoy seeing them do what they condemned the ALP for doing with Gillard/Rudd.

I can't see Abbott getting past this, if he's not gone by the end of this week, they'll have a vote of no confidence early next week.

I enjoy it all coming back to bite them too, and it's not like we're missing out on some great leader that's waiting on the wings on either side, so let's sit back and laugh at the shenanigans.

Adults.......bwahahahahaha!!!!

Finally the backbench grow a spine.

Eveeyone warned them that abbott was an idiot.  Bit they choose to ignore it in there Wiest for power.

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 6:31am:

Finally the backbench grow a spine. Eveeyone warned them that abbott was an idiot.  Bit they choose to ignore it in there Wiest for power.

bullshit...

they have no spine..

they need to be horsewhipped for disloyalty and for giving in to the media driven feeding frenzy..

and that's why I would never vote for Bill Shorten...

he destabilised the Labor government and stabbed his leaders in the back to feed his own ambition..

an absolute filthy grub who only deserves the contempt of every Australian..

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 6:37am:

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 6:31am: Finally the backbench grow a spine. Eveeyone warned them that abbott was an idiot.  Bit they choose to ignore it in there Wiest for power. bullshit... they have no spine.. they need to be horsewhipped for disloyalty and for giving in to the media driven feeding frenzy.. and that's why I would never vote for Bill Shorten... he destabilised the Labor government and stabbed his leaders in the back to feed his own ambition.. an absolute filthy grub who only deserves the contempt of every Australian..

Wow, feel the anger of a goose who has stood up for monkey all this time and now discovers he was backing an idiot. I hope they don't get rid of him quickly, I want to see them carry on the infighting as long as possible before making turnbull leader. Only that way will we get rid of hard right scum now sitting on the front bench and replace them with moderates who know how to negotiate with the senate.

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 6:37am:

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 6:31am: Finally the backbench grow a spine. Eveeyone warned them that abbott was an idiot.  Bit they choose to ignore it in there Wiest for power. bullshit... they have no spine.. they need to be horsewhipped for disloyalty and for giving in to the media driven feeding frenzy.. and that's why I would never vote for Bill Shorten... he destabilised the Labor government and stabbed his leaders in the back to feed his own ambition.. an absolute filthy grub who only deserves the contempt of every Australian..

Hi tony. The public have tired of the "its all labors fault".

Debt has risen 34% in the 17 months ypuve been in power, dwarfing labor debt growth. and now ypu are promising tax cuts and spending (ie more debt) just to save your hide.

Its no ones fault but your own.

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 6:37am:

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 6:31am: Finally the backbench grow a spine. Eveeyone warned them that abbott was an idiot.  Bit they choose to ignore it in there Wiest for power. bullshit... they have no spine.. they need to be horsewhipped for disloyalty and for giving in to the media driven feeding frenzy.. and that's why I would never vote for Bill Shorten... he destabilised the Labor government and stabbed his leaders in the back to feed his own ambition.. an absolute filthy grub who only deserves the contempt of every Australian..

u mad, bro?  ;D

More are publicly declaring their hand.

Tony Abbott: Leadership drama heightened as Dennis Jensen, Warren Entsch, Mal Brough break ranks against Prime Minister (Excerpt)

Quote:

A backbench revolt in the Liberal Party could unseat the Prime Minister within a week. Three MPs last night publicly disavowed their leader in what appears to be a chaotic but coordinated campaign to force a spill in the party when it meets on Tuesday. The organic insurrection is not being encouraged, nor discouraged, by the only credible leadership aspirants, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 5:59am:

Aussie wrote on Feb 3rd, 2015 at 10:41pm: Quite frankly, I don't personally care who leads the LNP.  That brand is on the nose, but I do enjoy seeing them do what they condemned the ALP for doing with Gillard/Rudd. I can't see Abbott getting past this, if he's not gone by the end of this week, they'll have a vote of no confidence early next week.

I do not expect Abbott to resign. His Press Club speech on Monday was clear on that point.

The Liberals have a party room meeting scheduled next week; I think it's on Monday. I expect there will be a motion of no confidence at that meeting and Abbott won't have the numbers. Even if Abbott manages to survive a motion of no confidence, it would not quell dissent especially if the numbers are close.

Abbott's days as PM are numbered.
5
days to go.

EDIT:
Make that 6 days ... the party room meeting is next Tuesday. If it's right after a bad Newspoll, Abbott's not going to leave that room as PM.

What a wonderful few days its been.  The new leader will have to demonstrate that there is in fact a genuine change and withdrawing the budget of evil will be a good start.   

http://i.imgur.com/fYA6Fau.jpg

Bam wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 8:06am:

5 days to go.

I'm not so sure. There has been something of a rallying behind Abbott since the Jenson/Entch/Brough storm, and there is a clear division between Jenson's (still small) group of rebel backbenchers and the senior ministerial ranks who have held firm behind Abbott. While I don't think there are really many lib MPs who actually want Tony to stay, I think there is a definite case of "I don't want to be the first to jump". I reckon this may well need more time to fester before it reaches the required critical mass for an overthrow.

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 6:37am:

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 6:31am: Finally the backbench grow a spine. Eveeyone warned them that abbott was an idiot.  Bit they choose to ignore it in there Wiest for power. bullshit... they have no spine.. they need to be horsewhipped for disloyalty and for giving in to the media driven feeding frenzy.. and that's why I would never vote for Bill Shorten... he destabilised the Labor government and stabbed his leaders in the back to feed his own ambition.. an absolute filthy grub who only deserves the contempt of every Australian..

Yes it isn't that they grew a spine - this is all about the risk of them losing their jobs, it is purely driven by self interest, they see all the Abbott lies and errors as being a nail in their personal bank accounts.

The real horror for them is that Abbotts performance could cost many on the back bench their free lunches.

As long as the useless prick GOES!

He was LOTO for 4 years, in that time:

1. What new, fresh talent did he bring into the Lib Parliamentary ranks?

2. What well thought out policies did he formulate?

The answers to both are zero.

He would have been useless as LOTO, despite his stupid stunts but for Rudd destabilising Gillard and leaking against her in the 2010 election. Even the Carbon Price lost its sting once introduced and people saw it wasn’t any sort of ogre.

the fact a few backbenchers don't like him is a bit ho hum


the fact Rupert , Alan , Boltie and the scooter are sick of him speaks volumes  ;) ;)

Dnarever wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 9:19am:

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 6:37am: Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 6:31am: Finally the backbench grow a spine. Eveeyone warned them that abbott was an idiot.  Bit they choose to ignore it in there Wiest for power. bullshit... they have no spine.. they need to be horsewhipped for disloyalty and for giving in to the media driven feeding frenzy.. and that's why I would never vote for Bill Shorten... he destabilised the Labor government and stabbed his leaders in the back to feed his own ambition.. an absolute filthy grub who only deserves the contempt of every Australian.. Yes it isn't that they grew a spine - this is all about the risk of them losing their jobs, it is purely driven by self interest, they see all the Abbott lies and errors as being a nail in their personal bank accounts. The real horror for them is that Abbotts performance could cost many on the back bench their free lunches.

Someone  once said..

When in doubt, back self-interest.

This is the great feedback mechanism that the public can force change on a government, through polls and state elections which show to pollies that they will lose there jobs if they continue.  Contrary to Mr Abbott you dont need an election for a reshuffle, and reinvention.

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 9:15am:

Bam wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 8:06am: 5 days to go. I'm not so sure. There has been something of a rallying behind Abbott since the Jenson/Entch/Brough storm, and there is a clear division between Jenson's (still small) group of rebel backbenchers and the senior ministerial ranks who have held firm behind Abbott. While I don't think there are really many lib MPs who actually want Tony to stay, I think there is a definite case of "I don't want to be the first to jump". I reckon this may well need more time to fester before it reaches the required critical mass for an overthrow.

I'm making a guess on the timeframe. I could be wrong, but who knows?

Things would come to a head pretty quickly if the next opinion poll is dire. I think the first Newspoll of the year is due out next Monday night. If that has something like 45-55 or worse for the Coalition, the backbenchers in marginal seats will not remain quiet.

Backbenchers in marginal seats have nothing to lose by forcing some kind of vote. Their portfolios? They have none. Their jobs? Their jobs are very unsafe if the Liberals are looking at 10% to 12% swings. If they don't act, the next election would be a bloodbath.

The question that the backbenchers would need to ask:

Which is likely to do more damage to the Liberal Party - keeping a failing Prime Minister or replacing him?

backbencher revolt is all well and good, but it comes to naught if no willing candidate turns up. Factors that may complicate things for the front bench:

- what happens to Joe Hockey - he would presumably have to be ditched as well
- Sooner or later they have to choose between Bishop or Turnbull (Morrison seems to be out of the race now) - will Bishop supporters unite behind Turnbull and vice-versa?
- the budget: people are forgetting already that the demise of the liberals is not fundamentally an issue of personality, its a dud of a budget. Will the new leader be prepared to ditch it? How will that go down with the ideologues in the party?

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 11:50am:

backbencher revolt is all well and good, but it comes to naught if no willing candidate turns up. Factors that may complicate things for the front bench: - what happens to Joe Hockey - he would presumably have to be ditched as well - Sooner or later they have to choose between Bishop or Turnbull (Morrison seems to be out of the race now) - will Bishop supporters unite behind Turnbull and vice-versa? - the budget: people are forgetting already that the demise of the liberals is not fundamentally an issue of personality, its a dud of a budget. Will the new leader be prepared to ditch it? How will that go down with the ideologues in the party?

If they were smart - Bishop and turnbull would form a united ticket - maybe Bishop as leader with Turnbull deputy, so the Teaparty crowd don't get too frightened.

If Tony doesn't resign - Brough will call the spill, and B&T step in to fill the gap.  All nice and tidy.

Abbott and Hockey will go to the back bench - and then they will all pray that neither of them turns Rudd-like

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 11:50am:

backbencher revolt is all well and good, but it comes to naught if no willing candidate turns up. Factors that may complicate things for the front bench: - what happens to Joe Hockey - he would presumably have to be ditched as well - Sooner or later they have to choose between Bishop or Turnbull (Morrison seems to be out of the race now) - will Bishop supporters unite behind Turnbull and vice-versa? - the budget: people are forgetting already that the demise of the liberals is not fundamentally an issue of personality, its a dud of a budget. Will the new leader be prepared to ditch it? How will that go down with the ideologues in the party?

Turnbull is the obvious out here. He is not driven by the right wing ideologue, and would provide a pragmatic approach.

It is however, doubtful if there are enough non-ideologues in the party to vote him in. ideologues do not use common sense, so will not vote for him.

Bishop will be his deputy, and they will find some muppet to be treasurer.

If Bishop becomes PM, and Hockey remains treasurer, it will be a complete mess.

and then what for Hockey? Seethe in the background - he's still far too young to give up on his obvious leadership ambitions.

I hope a spill is called but no one turns up, or a challenge is mounted but Abbott narrowly wins. Then we'd *REALLY* see the libs tear themselves apart.

Lets face it, every moment Abbott remains is pure gold for labor. Those polls aint gonna improve under him. It is literally impossible to see liberal infighting magically disappearing while ever Abbott remains.

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 10:43am:

Dnarever wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 9:19am: President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 6:37am: Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 6:31am: Finally the backbench grow a spine. Eveeyone warned them that abbott was an idiot.  Bit they choose to ignore it in there Wiest for power. bullshit... they have no spine.. they need to be horsewhipped for disloyalty and for giving in to the media driven feeding frenzy.. and that's why I would never vote for Bill Shorten... he destabilised the Labor government and stabbed his leaders in the back to feed his own ambition.. an absolute filthy grub who only deserves the contempt of every Australian.. Yes it isn't that they grew a spine - this is all about the risk of them losing their jobs, it is purely driven by self interest, they see all the Abbott lies and errors as being a nail in their personal bank accounts. The real horror for them is that Abbotts performance could cost many on the back bench their free lunches. Someone  once said.. When in doubt, back self-interest. This is the great feedback mechanism that the public can force change on a government, through polls and state elections which show to pollies that they will lose there jobs if they continue.  Contrary to Mr Abbott you dont need an election for a reshuffle, and reinvention.

Yes and that's exactly what Hockey and other front benchers are doing. Hockey knows if Abbott's dumped so is he.
I hope they don't dump him now the longer it goes the worse it will get until they are annihilated. This will split the party for years. ;D ;D ;D I see Abbott, Hockey, Morriscum and that German dick all on the back bench after the spill.

I don't want Abbott to get dumped, it would be far more pleasurable to see him annihilated at the election, fair and square, just like Newman.

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 1:31pm:

I don't want Abbott to get dumped, it would be far more pleasurable to see him annihilated at the election, fair and square, just like Newman.

The country can't afford to have Abbott asleep at the wheel for two years.

Bam wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 1:55pm:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 1:31pm: I don't want Abbott to get dumped, it would be far more pleasurable to see him annihilated at the election, fair and square, just like Newman. The country can't afford to have Abbott asleep at the wheel for two years.

Yes, that's the problem.

I'd love to see him ousted at a federal election, however, if he's allowed to stay on there's no telling what damage he'll do.

He needs to go.

Not long now.

I think this may pan out a bit like Keating - Hawke.

Maybe a spill next Tuesday to clear the air.
1.    No takers then a sort of vote of confidence for Abbott.
2.    Turnbull and Bishop run against him and are defeated.

This buys him a bit of time but he is damaged goods.

Fester

Fester

Fester

A few months later a new challenge and Abbott booted out by Turnbull, Bishop is deputy.

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1895867/FYq7M_gif_2520.gif

loving it  ;D ;D ;D

Bam wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 11:14am:

polite_gandalf wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 9:15am: Bam wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 8:06am: 5 days to go. I'm not so sure. There has been something of a rallying behind Abbott since the Jenson/Entch/Brough storm, and there is a clear division between Jenson's (still small) group of rebel backbenchers and the senior ministerial ranks who have held firm behind Abbott. While I don't think there are really many lib MPs who actually want Tony to stay, I think there is a definite case of "I don't want to be the first to jump". I reckon this may well need more time to fester before it reaches the required critical mass for an overthrow. I'm making a guess on the timeframe. I could be wrong, but who knows? Things would come to a head pretty quickly if the next opinion poll is dire. I think the first Newspoll of the year is due out next Monday night. If that has something like 45-55 or worse for the Coalition, the backbenchers in marginal seats will not remain quiet. Backbenchers in marginal seats have nothing to lose by forcing some kind of vote. Their portfolios? They have none. Their jobs? Their jobs are very unsafe if the Liberals are looking at 10% to 12% swings. If they don't act, the next election would be a bloodbath.

One can only hope.  Anyone got a handle on which LNP Ministers are on a margin of 7% or less? That pendulum must be available somewhere on the net

Quote:

One can only hope.  Anyone got a handle on which LNP Ministers are on a margin of 7% or less? That pendulum must be available somewhere on the net

Just two.

Peter Dutton.  He is on a margin  of 6.7%  He is the Member for Dickson (Qld.)  He is the Minister for Immigration and Border Protection.

Bruce Billson.  He is on a margin of 5.6%.  Member for Dunkley (Vi.)  He is the Minister for Small Business.

BUT:


There are also 32 LNP back-benchers on a margin of less then 7%, including 9 from Queensland, 3 from WA, 5 from Victoria, 10 from New South Wales, 2 from Tasmania, 1 from South Australia and 1 from the Northern Territory.  (Yeah, I know, I stuffed up the numbers by one, and I can't be arsed to find the error.)

Aussie wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 3:32pm:

Quote: One can only hope.  Anyone got a handle on which LNP Ministers are on a margin of 7% or less? That pendulum must be available somewhere on the net Just two. Peter Dutton.  He is on a margin  of 6.7%  He is the Member for Dickson (Qld.)  He is the Minister for Immigration and Border Protection. Bruce Billson.  He is on a margin of 5.6%.  Member for Dunkley (Vi.)  He is the Minister for Small Business. Ohhh it would be sooo sweet to see the back of these 2 BUT: There are also 32 LNP back-benchers on a margin of less then 7%, including 9 from Queensland, 3 from WA, 5 from Victoria, 10 from New South Wales, 2 from Tasmania, 1 from South Australia and 1 from the Northern Territory.  (Yeah, I know, I stuffed up the numbers by one, and I can't be arsed to find the error.)

Thanks Aussie.  That's what I was looking for but had some trouble finding. I owe you one

Here is the link.

Link.

It does not show where the Ministers are so I had to check each LNP seat under a 7% margin.

Labor should be a Shoe in. Even if the coalition have a uniform 4% swing against them they're gone.

skippy. wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 3:47pm:

Labor should be a Shoe in. Even if the coalition have a uniform 4% swing against them they're gone.

If they replace an elected PM I think we should be demanding an immediate election, which is very similar to what Gillard did.  They cant be allowed to replace the PM and then serve out the rest of the term as if nothing has happened esp after their criticism of Gillard. At least with her we went into election mode within 3 weeks and she was only caretaker PM until after she formed the next Government.   

Interesting to see Sinodinos is very vocal in his desire for Abbott to bring this to a head.  Perhaps there is a bit of agro between the two following ICAC in NSW?

ImSpartacus2 wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 2:42pm:

One can only hope.  Anyone got a handle on which LNP Ministers are on a margin of 7% or less? That pendulum must be available somewhere on the net

Here is the pendulum on Wikipedia: Post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2013

It probably pays to look a little further for more potential Ministerial carnage. Pyne has a 10.1% margin in Sturt.

Vic wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 5:50pm:

Interesting to see Sinodinos is very vocal in his desire for Abbott to bring this to a head.  Perhaps there is a bit of agro between the two following ICAC in NSW?

It’s a broad church.

ImSpartacus2 wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 4:01pm:

skippy. wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 3:47pm: Labor should be a Shoe in. Even if the coalition have a uniform 4% swing against them they're gone. If they replace an elected PM I think we should be demanding an immediate election, which is very similar to what Gillard did.  They cant be allowed to replace the PM and then serve out the rest of the term as if nothing has happened esp after their criticism of Gillard. At least with her we went into election mode within 3 weeks and she was only caretaker PM until after she formed the next Government.

The difference though is that in 2010 when Gillard replaced Rudd, the next election was due to be held anyway. Gillard would have had to call an election in the next couple of months regardless.

This time isn't the right time to call an election due to Constitutional restrictions. Any election held now can only be a House-only election or a double dissolution. A Half-Senate election cannot be called before July, 2016.

I doubt any election would be called before a half-Senate election is due.

Ditch the triathlete.

Axe the cuts.

End the Lies.

Stop the waste.

Smoke the hog.

ditch the slogans.

Bam wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 5:53pm:

ImSpartacus2 wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 2:42pm: One can only hope.  Anyone got a handle on which LNP Ministers are on a margin of 7% or less? That pendulum must be available somewhere on the net Here is the pendulum on Wikipedia: Post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2013 It probably pays to look a little further for more potential Ministerial carnage. Pyne has a 10.1% margin in Sturt.

Thanks Bam, I'll check it out.  I love playing with that pendulum.

Bam wrote on Feb 4^th, 2015 at 6:01pm:

ImSpartacus2 wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 4:01pm: skippy. wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 3:47pm: Labor should be a Shoe in. Even if the coalition have a uniform 4% swing against them they're gone. If they replace an elected PM I think we should be demanding an immediate election, which is very similar to what Gillard did.  They cant be allowed to replace the PM and then serve out the rest of the term as if nothing has happened esp after their criticism of Gillard. At least with her we went into election mode within 3 weeks and she was only caretaker PM until after she formed the next Government. The difference though is that in 2010 when Gillard replaced Rudd, the next election was due to be held anyway. Gillard would have had to call an election in the next couple of months regardless. This time isn't the right time to call an election due to Constitutional restrictions. Any election held now can only be a House-only election or a double dissolution. A Half-Senate election cannot be called before July, 2016. I doubt any election would be called before a half-Senate election is due.

He's got the triggers for a DD and a House-only election will not be good enough for him so a DD it should be in my opinion. But of course they wont do any of that because they know they wont win. They will just expect us to wear it and I'm saying we shouldn't have to wear it and insist on a DD now. If he's complaining about the senate well the constitution provides him with a mechanism for dealing with it and we should insist that he deals with it now.  Everything says election now!!!!