Oz, the home of the magic pudding has invented the magic bubble which floats wondrously and never bursts. In happy go lucky land the denizens flip houses back and forward between each other and dine on the magic economic pudding.

However there are omens:

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20150321/werent-meant-hear-stock-market-alarm-bell.html


Quote:

The way Ray sees things, today’s economy is eerily similar to that of 1937. In case (like your editor) you’re too young to remember what happened back then, here’s a reminder: the Fed raised interest rates eight years after the 1929 financial crisis, after a period of ultra-low rates aimed at boosting the economy. Sound familiar? An eight-year wait still ended up being too soon. In less than one year, the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average [INDEXDJX:DJI] lost nearly half of its value. Ouch. Ray urges the Fed to stay cautious about raising rates. To make his case, Ray offers six unnerving parallels between then and now (this list quotes Dalio’s note)…     Debt limits reached at Bubble Top, causing the economy and markets to peak (1929 & 2007)     Interest rates hit zero amid depression (1931 & 2008)     Money printing starts, kicking off a beautiful deleveraging (1933 & 2009)     The stock market and ‘risky assets’ rally (1933-1936 & 2009-2014)     The economy improves during a cyclical recovery (1933-1936 & 2009-2014)     6. The central bank tightens, resulting in a self-reinforcing downturn (1935 & 2015?) Your editor admits the similarities are remarkable. And by all accounts, taking the other side of a Ray Dalio tip is a brave bet. No less an authority than Sam Sicilia, the chief investment officer of industry super fund Hostplus, views Ray as one of the smartest investors on the planet.

Aren't these the same omens the leftards have been moaning about for about a decade now ?

Yet nothing has changed Yawn.

the usual boofheads with the usual omens of doom conveniently forgetting that 2015 is very different to 1937 and we have learned  afew things since then.

Also... and this is a biggie... they love to quote USA experience and then try and make it apply to us when there is so little that is comparable, nevermind the 80 year time gap.

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 21^st, 2015 at 5:57pm:

the usual boofheads with the usual omens of doom conveniently forgetting that 2015 is very different to 1937 and we have learned  afew things since then. Also... and this is a biggie... they love to quote USA experience and then try and make it apply to us when there is so little that is comparable, nevermind the 80 year time gap.

The key factor of very low interest rates is very similar indeed. So is the problem of government budget deficits.

Private debt seems to be much higher per capita in Australia than USA which portends a bigger negative effect from a recession.

Keep your North end buried in the sand while your South end is exposed to forces beyond your control. Its better you don't see whats coming.

SweetLambo wrote on Mar 21^st, 2015 at 2:37pm:

Aren't these the same omens the leftards have been moaning about for about a decade now ?

No this isn't a right wing left wing thing.
There are just some people who always believe that we are just about to have an economic crash. They have been predicting it ever since political forums started.

Its really just an economic version of the religious nutters who for the past 1000 years have been claiming we are in the "end times".

http://www.signs-of-end-times.com/

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 21^st, 2015 at 5:57pm:

the usual boofheads with the usual omens of doom conveniently forgetting that 2015 is very different to 1937 and we have learned  afew things since then. Also... and this is a biggie... they love to quote USA experience and then try and make it apply to us when there is so little that is comparable, nevermind the 80 year time gap.

Hey longloser, how are you going to pay this lot off by flipping houses ? Remnember debt is a bad thing according to Abort and co and you should try and pay it off as quickly as possible ;)

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The_Barnacle wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2015 at 10:09am:

SweetLambo wrote on Mar 21st, 2015 at 2:37pm: Aren't these the same omens the leftards have been moaning about for about a decade now ? No this isn't a right wing left wing thing. There are just some people who always believe that we are just about to have an economic crash. They have been predicting it ever since political forums started. Its really just an economic version of the religious nutters who for the past 1000 years have been claiming we are in the "end times". http://www.signs-of-end-times.com/

There was economic collapse. The British empire went bust in that time and never recovered. Since 2007 America has lost a lot of it's influence. The American empire is on the way out. No-one is predicting total annihilation.

Brendon wrote on Mar 22^nd, 2015 at 11:03am:

The_Barnacle wrote on Mar 22nd, 2015 at 10:09am: SweetLambo wrote on Mar 21st, 2015 at 2:37pm: Aren't these the same omens the leftards have been moaning about for about a decade now ? No this isn't a right wing left wing thing. There are just some people who always believe that we are just about to have an economic crash. They have been predicting it ever since political forums started. Its really just an economic version of the religious nutters who for the past 1000 years have been claiming we are in the "end times". http://www.signs-of-end-times.com/ There was economic collapse. The British empire went bust in that time and never recovered. Since 2007 America has lost a lot of it's influence. The American empire is on the way out. No-one is predicting total annihilation.

The British Empire has been degenerating since World War 1. They can't keep their sh*t together. Hence the continuous emigration of poms to Australia.

Currently GBP is about 30% as valuable in USD as it was in 1915. That represents a constant and continous decline.

http://www.miketodd.net/encyc/dollar-verylong.gif