https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1144&dat=19750929&id=S-4bAAAAIBAJ&sjid=oFYEAAAAIBAJ&pg=4749,5575296&hl=en



Scientists - sorry, statisticians - and their predictions.

40 years on, some kids on the green/prog end of the lunatic scale are still hot for this kind of 'prediction.

Looks like the old boy’s going for the research assistant position with Andrew Bolt.

Fingers crossed, dear boy. Make sure you hide the colostomy bag under your suit, okay?

Karnal wrote on Sep 30^th, 2015 at 10:07pm:

Looks like the old boy’s going for the research assistant position with Andrew Bolt. Fingers crossed, dear boy. Make sure you hide the colostomy bag under your suit, okay?

Hmmm    :-/

What do a colostomy bag and Andrew Bolt have in common?

Palestinians have colostomy bags. Looks like the old boy’s colostomy burqa is leaking onto the keyboard through the slit. Gross

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 30^th, 2015 at 10:26pm:

Karnal wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:07pm: Looks like the old boy’s going for the research assistant position with Andrew Bolt. Fingers crossed, dear boy. Make sure you hide the colostomy bag under your suit, okay? Hmmm    :-/ What do a colostomy bag and Andrew Bolt have in common?

you're not paying attention are you?

the answer is Soren of course

Johnsmith wrote on Sep 30^th, 2015 at 10:29pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:26pm: Karnal wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:07pm: Looks like the old boy’s going for the research assistant position with Andrew Bolt. Fingers crossed, dear boy. Make sure you hide the colostomy bag under your suit, okay? Hmmm    :-/ What do a colostomy bag and Andrew Bolt have in common? you're not paying attention are you? the answer is Soren of course

Ah!

I thought they were both full of sh1t.

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 30^th, 2015 at 10:29pm:

Johnsmith wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:29pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:26pm: Karnal wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:07pm: Looks like the old boy’s going for the research assistant position with Andrew Bolt. Fingers crossed, dear boy. Make sure you hide the colostomy bag under your suit, okay? Hmmm    :-/ What do a colostomy bag and Andrew Bolt have in common? you're not paying attention are you? the answer is Soren of course Ah! I thought they were both full of sh1t.

wasn't that what I said?

Johnsmith wrote on Sep 30^th, 2015 at 10:32pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:29pm: Johnsmith wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:29pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:26pm: Karnal wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:07pm: Looks like the old boy’s going for the research assistant position with Andrew Bolt. Fingers crossed, dear boy. Make sure you hide the colostomy bag under your suit, okay? Hmmm    :-/ What do a colostomy bag and Andrew Bolt have in common? you're not paying attention are you? the answer is Soren of course Ah! I thought they were both full of sh1t. wasn't that what I said?

Ah, yes!

Uh oh! ... looks like someone has exposed the idiot left to a dose of reality again, reality to the idiot left is like kryptonite to Superman, even a mild exposure to reality will cripple them and turn them into gibbering idiots.   

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 30^th, 2015 at 10:26pm:

Karnal wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:07pm: Looks like the old boy’s going for the research assistant position with Andrew Bolt. Fingers crossed, dear boy. Make sure you hide the colostomy bag under your suit, okay? Hmmm    :-/ What do a colostomy bag and Andrew Bolt have in common?

A gut-full of commentary like yours?

8-)

In all seriousness I wonder how much oil OPEC has left?
Most of the member states have been revising their reserve estimates upwards each year without any new field discoveries to enable them to sell more oil each year.
While they are going strong now I suspect that we wont get a huge amount of warning when the do finally dry up.

Pho Huc wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 12:11pm:

In all seriousness I wonder how much oil OPEC has left? Most of the member states have been revising their reserve estimates upwards each year without any new field discoveries to enable them to sell more oil each year. While they are going strong now I suspect that we wont get a huge amount of warning when the do finally dry up.

You are saying mass-panic is on the cards!??!

innocentbystander. wrote on Sep 30^th, 2015 at 11:02pm:

Uh oh! ... looks like someone has exposed the idiot left to a dose of reality again, reality to the idiot left is like kryptonite to Superman, even a mild exposure to reality will cripple them and turn them into gibbering idiots.

which is why innocent still believes young libs love copper internet  :) :)

Pho Huc wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 12:11pm:

In all seriousness I wonder how much oil OPEC has left? Most of the member states have been revising their reserve estimates upwards each year without any new field discoveries to enable them to sell more oil each year. While they are going strong now I suspect that we wont get a huge amount of warning when the do finally dry up.

It's more about whether or not the oil can be extracted, or is worth extracting, than how much is underground.

The oil reserve tends to change with technology and the dollar value of oil, so 20 years ago, the limit was about how deep they could drill, and how much profit they'd make. If the price per barrel flatlines, or falls, it might then cost more to pump the oil up, than it's worth on the market.

http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/energy/run-out-of-oil.htm

"Oil is the lifeblood of the modern world, and the combustion engine its indomitable heart. In 2009, oil wells around the world pumped an estimated 84 to 85 million barrels out of the Earth, and countries consumed just as much [source: EIA]. At this rate, how long can we go on pumping fossil fuels out of the ground without exhausting our supplies?

Naturally, we can't tap and drain an entire planet's worth of oil from a single well. Countless oil wells pox Earth's surface: some active, some long drained. Each oil well follows a production bell curve, with output rising, stabilizing and then declining to nothing over a period of years. This is called the Hubbert Curve, proposed in 1956 by Shell geologist M. King Hubbert.

Hubbert also extrapolated his curve to global oil production. Oil companies discover the large, easily exploited oil fields first and then move onto smaller, deeper oil fields when the large ones decline. New technology also continues to make previously unexploited oil deposits viable reserves. The overall curve predicts that global production will rise, peak and then fall off.

Before this gradual downfall begins, however, we'll reach a point known as peak oil. Imagine a carafe filled with coffee. Imagine pouring cup after cup without effort until the stream of java begins to trickle. Eventually you even have to severely tilt the carafe in order to drain the dredges. Peak oil is that last full and flowing cup before the final decline begins. Demand continues to grow, while the Earth's nonrenewable oil reserves dwindle.

Individual nations have already reached peak oil. U.S. production peaked in 1971 and has been in decline ever since [source: EIA]. As global oil production appears to have plateaued in 2005, some analysts say the world has already peaked. Fredrik Robelius of the Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, however, predicts it will peak sometime between now and 2018 [source: ASPO].

Other estimates are far less severe. In 2006, the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) predicted that 3.74 trillion barrels of oil remained in the Earth, three times that estimated by peak oil proponents. CERA predicted that global oil production would hit a decades-long "undulating plateau" around the middle of the 21st century.

What happens after peak oil? The worst-case oil crash predictions involve soaring gas prices, the end of globalization, widespread anarchy and the relentless exploitation of previously protected drilling sites.

More optimistic views of this inevitable post-peak world involve a lot more preparation. Basically, the impact of oil shortages can be lessened by decreasing our reliance on fossil fuels. Alternative energy sources and renewable biofuels play a crucial role in these outlooks. Some commentators even go so far as to see eventual oil shortfalls as a stabilizing factor in world politics [source: Drezner].

The writing is on the wall. Global oil supply can't meet global oil demand forever, necessitating new energy sources and usage practices. Even if technology allowed us to harvest every last drop of oil in the planet, increasing scarcity and rising prices would necessitate widespread change long before we actually ran out of oil."

I read at some time earlier that petroleum would run dry any time between about 2035 and 2058 or so....

My entire World War IV book series is based on the lack of easy access to petroleum and its products and thus an entirely different battlesphere is created from what we now see.  The entire series is - in some ways - very akin to the circumstances prevailing at the time of the American Civil War - which is basically where it all starts with a Second Civil War between East and West United States, and developing from there.

The whole thing is basically an Infantry bar-room brawl.... and the series is very ground zero trooper stuff....

gizmo_2655 wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 6:51pm:

Pho Huc wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 12:11pm: In all seriousness I wonder how much oil OPEC has left? Most of the member states have been revising their reserve estimates upwards each year without any new field discoveries to enable them to sell more oil each year. While they are going strong now I suspect that we wont get a huge amount of warning when the do finally dry up. It's more about whether or not the oil can be extracted, or is worth extracting, than how much is underground. The oil reserve tends to change with technology and the dollar value of oil, so 20 years ago, the limit was about how deep they could drill, and how much profit they'd make. If the price per barrel flatlines, or falls, it might then cost more to pump the oil up, than it's worth on the market.

I remember being told countless times that there would be no petrol by *insert year* and they were wrong every time. Now the USA and Canada are oil independent and even in Australia, there is a probable oil field in the southern ocean larger than the Saudi oil fields.

Looks like time to dust of the next set of oil predictions so we can laugh at them in 20 years as well.

mariacostel wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 11:57am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 6:51pm: Pho Huc wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 12:11pm: In all seriousness I wonder how much oil OPEC has left? Most of the member states have been revising their reserve estimates upwards each year without any new field discoveries to enable them to sell more oil each year. While they are going strong now I suspect that we wont get a huge amount of warning when the do finally dry up. It's more about whether or not the oil can be extracted, or is worth extracting, than how much is underground. The oil reserve tends to change with technology and the dollar value of oil, so 20 years ago, the limit was about how deep they could drill, and how much profit they'd make. If the price per barrel flatlines, or falls, it might then cost more to pump the oil up, than it's worth on the market. I remember being told countless times that there would be no petrol by *insert year* and they were wrong every time. Now the USA and Canada are oil independent and even in Australia, there is a probable oil field in the southern ocean larger than the Saudi oil fields. Looks like time to dust of the next set of oil predictions so we can laugh at them in 20 years as well.

Your so right Maria.
Since we keep finding new sources of oil we obviously have an infinite supply of it, and there is no point thinking about it running out.

Your very, very wise.


Sarcasm aside, hopefully the oil supply will hold out long enough that we will be able to get the alternative technologies developed before they are essential.

We don't have to run out of oil completely for it to become a crisis. Petrochemicals are essentials to so many of our industries that even a slight reduction in supply creates chaos.

Then you have to factor in growth of consumption in the developing world. The 1st world isn't going to stop using oil, BRIC's is going to start going through a lot more.

I don't think freaking out is appropriate, but I would support massively increasing funding to bio-fuel research to speed a source of a replacement hydrocarbons.

gizmo_2655 wrote on Oct 1^st, 2015 at 6:51pm:

Pho Huc wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 12:11pm: In all seriousness I wonder how much oil OPEC has left? Most of the member states have been revising their reserve estimates upwards each year without any new field discoveries to enable them to sell more oil each year. While they are going strong now I suspect that we wont get a huge amount of warning when the do finally dry up. It's more about whether or not the oil can be extracted, or is worth extracting, than how much is underground. The oil reserve tends to change with technology and the dollar value of oil, so 20 years ago, the limit was about how deep they could drill, and how much profit they'd make. If the price per barrel flatlines, or falls, it might then cost more to pump the oil up, than it's worth on the market.

Wow, what a salient point  ::) ::)

We ran out of oil this year, don't you know

Did we?

I still think they have some at Aldi.

Pho Huc wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 1:41pm:

mariacostel wrote on Oct 2nd, 2015 at 11:57am: gizmo_2655 wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 6:51pm: Pho Huc wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 12:11pm: In all seriousness I wonder how much oil OPEC has left? Most of the member states have been revising their reserve estimates upwards each year without any new field discoveries to enable them to sell more oil each year. While they are going strong now I suspect that we wont get a huge amount of warning when the do finally dry up. It's more about whether or not the oil can be extracted, or is worth extracting, than how much is underground. The oil reserve tends to change with technology and the dollar value of oil, so 20 years ago, the limit was about how deep they could drill, and how much profit they'd make. If the price per barrel flatlines, or falls, it might then cost more to pump the oil up, than it's worth on the market. I remember being told countless times that there would be no petrol by *insert year* and they were wrong every time. Now the USA and Canada are oil independent and even in Australia, there is a probable oil field in the southern ocean larger than the Saudi oil fields. Looks like time to dust of the next set of oil predictions so we can laugh at them in 20 years as well. Your so right Maria. Since we keep finding new sources of oil we obviously have an infinite supply of it, and there is no point thinking about it running out. Your very, very wise. Sarcasm aside, hopefully the oil supply will hold out long enough that we will be able to get the alternative technologies developed before they are essential. We don't have to run out of oil completely for it to become a crisis. Petrochemicals are essentials to so many of our industries that even a slight reduction in supply creates chaos. Then you have to factor in growth of consumption in the developing world. The 1st world isn't going to stop using oil, BRIC's is going to start going through a lot more. I don't think freaking out is appropriate, but I would support massively increasing funding to bio-fuel research to speed a source of a replacement hydrocarbons.

I had only ONE point in my post - the repeated failure of oil supply predictions. Obviously, it is not infinite, but it may be 200-300 years. I don't know, but rather obviously, neither does anyone else.

A wise old saying comes to mind:

the stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones

Islam never ended because you never ran out of Qur'ans.

ordinaryguy wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 7:40pm:

Islam never ended because you never ran out of Qur'ans.

Finally the printing press felt the need to be implemented...  :o

mariacostel wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 4:23pm:

Pho Huc wrote on Oct 2nd, 2015 at 1:41pm: mariacostel wrote on Oct 2nd, 2015 at 11:57am: gizmo_2655 wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 6:51pm: Pho Huc wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 12:11pm: In all seriousness I wonder how much oil OPEC has left? Most of the member states have been revising their reserve estimates upwards each year without any new field discoveries to enable them to sell more oil each year. While they are going strong now I suspect that we wont get a huge amount of warning when the do finally dry up. It's more about whether or not the oil can be extracted, or is worth extracting, than how much is underground. The oil reserve tends to change with technology and the dollar value of oil, so 20 years ago, the limit was about how deep they could drill, and how much profit they'd make. If the price per barrel flatlines, or falls, it might then cost more to pump the oil up, than it's worth on the market. I remember being told countless times that there would be no petrol by *insert year* and they were wrong every time. Now the USA and Canada are oil independent and even in Australia, there is a probable oil field in the southern ocean larger than the Saudi oil fields. Looks like time to dust of the next set of oil predictions so we can laugh at them in 20 years as well. Your so right Maria. Since we keep finding new sources of oil we obviously have an infinite supply of it, and there is no point thinking about it running out. Your very, very wise. Sarcasm aside, hopefully the oil supply will hold out long enough that we will be able to get the alternative technologies developed before they are essential. We don't have to run out of oil completely for it to become a crisis. Petrochemicals are essentials to so many of our industries that even a slight reduction in supply creates chaos. Then you have to factor in growth of consumption in the developing world. The 1st world isn't going to stop using oil, BRIC's is going to start going through a lot more. I don't think freaking out is appropriate, but I would support massively increasing funding to bio-fuel research to speed a source of a replacement hydrocarbons. I had only ONE point in my post - the repeated failure of oil supply predictions. Obviously, it is not infinite, but it may be 200-300 years. I don't know, but rather obviously, neither does anyone else.

maria is a doubt-merchant: who would've have guessed that  ::) ?