Time for Bill to resign and Albo to be promoted.




Fairfax-Ipsos poll shows dark days for Labor as Coalition surges under Malcolm Turnbull

Support for Labor has plunged to just 30 per cent as voters flood back to a rejuvenated Coalition government under Malcolm Turnbull's new leadership style one month after he replaced the unpopular Tony Abbott as Prime Minister.

In what appears to be a clear vindication of that bruising leadership switch, Mr Turnbull has more than tripled Bill Shorten's popularity as preferred prime minister at 67 per cent to Mr Shorten's 21 - a dive of 24 points for the Opposition Leader since August, when he was up against Mr Abbott.

The October Fairfax-Ipsos poll has found the Coalition has surged ahead of Labor at 53-47 according to the flow of second preferences as allocated at the 2013 election.


Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has performed poorly in the first Fairfax-Ipsos poll taken since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister.

It is the first time the government has led Labor since March 2014, just before the disastrous first Abbott-Hockey budget, and suggests the Coalition, now under new management, has recovered almost all the ground lost since its landslide victory in September 2013.

When respondents were asked specifically who would get their second preference right now, the story got even worse for Mr Shorten, with the split widening to 54-46 in the Coalition's favour.

The poll also shows Australians have not been frightened away from the task of economic reform by anti free-trade, union-sponsored advertising campaigns, with 54 per cent of respondents in favour of the China-Australia free trade agreement compared to 33 per cent opposed, giving it a support rating of 21 per cent.

Mr Turnbull's net approval rating as Prime Minister now stands at a healthy 51 per cent based on 68 per cent of voters approving of the way he is handling his job, minus the 17 per cent who disapprove.

Mr Shorten's performance in his role as Opposition Leader is being marked down, with those approving (32 per cent) minus the percentage who those who disapprove (56 per cent) giving him a net rating of minus 24 per cent - a fall of 14 points in two months.

Labor's primary vote has dropped by a precipitous 6 points over the same period to be just 30 per cent, whereas the Coalition's first preference support has bounced back to 45 per cent. This is within one percentage point of where it was in September 2013 election.

Based on the second preference allocated by voters in 2013, that translates to a split of 53-47 in favour of the government  - just half a percentage point off the high-water mark of 53.5 per cent when it was elected.

It means the swing away from the Coalition since September 2013 now stands at just 0.5 per cent, returning the now Turnbull-run operation to frontrunner status for the election due within a year.

Support for the Greens remains at the upper end of its strong 2015 performance on 14 per cent, although it had peaked at 17 per cent earlier in the year and was at 16 per cent in the previous two Fairfax-Ipsos polls.

Tough times ahead for Shorten

The statistically weighted nationwide phone survey of 1403 respondents was taken over October 15-17 at the end of another difficult week for Mr Shorten, who attracted widespread criticism for attacking Mr Turnbull's wealth and his use of a hedge fund in the off-shore tax-haven, the Cayman Islands, to manage his investments.

The former Australian Workers Union boss also faced fresh allegations last week arising from the Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance and Corruption. Executives from construction companies with which the AWU dealt claimed side-deals and bogus invoices were used to mask the transfer of money to the union, as part of mutually agreeable arrangements to lock out the more militant CFMEU.

At 51 per cent, Mr Turnbull's net approval rating (68 per cent minus a 17 per cent disapproval) eclipses even the stellar approval rating of Kevin Rudd at his peak (in the then Fairfax-Nielsen series) who in May 2008 registered a 69 per cent approval number but also had a slightly higher disapproval rating than Mr Turnbull of 22 per cent.

By contrast, Mr Shorten's approval rating at just 32 per cent (down 7 percentage points), is sinking at the same rate as his party's plummeting primary vote support of 30 per cent (down 7 points since August), which is 10 points lower than it was at the start of 2015. Those disapproving of his performance as Opposition Leader has soared to 56 per cent in a finding likely to increase internal dissatisfaction levels in his leadership.

On the simple head-to-head contest of preferred prime minister, Mr Turnbull's lead of 46 points is among the highest in recent times, eclipsing all but the 53-point advantage Mr Rudd enjoyed over the-then embattled opposition leader in May 2008, Brendan Nelson. That lead was 70 per cent to 17.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/dog-days-for-labor-as-coalition-surges-under-malcolm-turnbull-20151018-gkbx59.html

One poll, with a bias against Labor.

The Green vote slipping back to its normal 8-9%.

Will voters preference as in 2013?

Primary

Labor 30
Coalition 45
Greens 14
Other 9
Palmer 1

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 6:46pm:

One poll, with a bias against Labor. The Green vote slipping back to its normal 8-9%. Will voters preference as in 2013?

It's the 2nd or 3rd straight poll showing both Labor and Shorten going backwards fast.

Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 7:14pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 6:46pm: One poll, with a bias against Labor. The Green vote slipping back to its normal 8-9%. Will voters preference as in 2013? It's the 2nd or 3rd straight poll showing both Labor and Shorten going backwards fast.

He is going beautufully , he smashed young fogey and empty vessel to smithereens, once the Aussie public cotton on its the same old toxic policies with a new face trying to sell them its all over for the Libs , the only poll that counts is on election day despite what Turncoat said after knifing young fogey in the back .

Its time wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 8:22pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 7:14pm: Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 6:46pm: One poll, with a bias against Labor. The Green vote slipping back to its normal 8-9%. Will voters preference as in 2013? It's the 2nd or 3rd straight poll showing both Labor and Shorten going backwards fast. He is going beautufully , he smashed young fogey and empty vessel to smithereens, once the Aussie public cotton on its the same old toxic policies with a new face trying to sell them its all over for the Libs , the only poll that counts is on election day despite what Turncoat said after knifing young fogey in the back .

that's not what you and the rest of the smelly labrats were saying when corruption Bill was leading the polls...  ;D

if I were turncoat i'd go to an election asap...

oh whoopee do the POLLS are winning.. :D :D

cods wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 8:49pm:

oh whoopee do the POLLS are winning.. :D :D

Now now, dear, the only poll that counts is the one on erection day.

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 8:42pm:

if I were turncoat i'd go to an election asap...

That would not be a good idea with the redistributions in NSW and WA not yet finalised. It would cause needless complications.

Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 7:14pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 6:46pm: One poll, with a bias against Labor. The Green vote slipping back to its normal 8-9%. Will voters preference as in 2013? It's the 2nd or 3rd straight poll showing both Labor and Shorten going backwards fast.

It is normal in the post-transition honeymoon period for the polls to bounce around a bit. Abbott's peak polling in his short-lived honeymoon period was even higher. It didn't last, of course.

We will have a better idea how both leaders and both major parties are travelling early in the new year.

The Aussie public generally vote on Charisma but we can thank Tony for putting them all under the blow torch now after without doubt the worst 2 years in my lifetime. Best of luck selling his policies turncoat  :D

Bam wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 9:05pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 7:14pm: Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 6:46pm: One poll, with a bias against Labor. The Green vote slipping back to its normal 8-9%. Will voters preference as in 2013? It's the 2nd or 3rd straight poll showing both Labor and Shorten going backwards fast. It is normal in the post-transition honeymoon period for the polls to bounce around a bit. Abbott's peak polling in his short-lived honeymoon period was even higher. It didn't last, of course. We will have a better idea how both leaders and both major parties are travelling early in the new year.

Sorry, Bam, there is now no effective opposition in Australian politics, as everybody knows.

We can.pretend otherwise, but we all know the truth.

Until LAbor find someone who isn’t a boring factional hack, Turnbull’s there for a generation.

IPSOS like Newspoll tend to inflate the Greens/Other vote heavily.

I wonder what the result is based on respondent allocated preferences?

Karnal wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 9:16pm:

Bam wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 9:05pm: Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 7:14pm: Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 6:46pm: One poll, with a bias against Labor. The Green vote slipping back to its normal 8-9%. Will voters preference as in 2013? It's the 2nd or 3rd straight poll showing both Labor and Shorten going backwards fast. It is normal in the post-transition honeymoon period for the polls to bounce around a bit. Abbott's peak polling in his short-lived honeymoon period was even higher. It didn't last, of course. We will have a better idea how both leaders and both major parties are travelling early in the new year. Sorry, Bam, there is now no effective opposition in Australian politics, as everybody knows. We can.pretend otherwise, but we all know the truth. Until LAbor find someone who isn’t a boring factional hack, Turnbull’s there for a generation.

You said Abort would win next election as well  ;)

Karnal wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 9:16pm:

Bam wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 9:05pm: Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 7:14pm: Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 6:46pm: One poll, with a bias against Labor. The Green vote slipping back to its normal 8-9%. Will voters preference as in 2013? It's the 2nd or 3rd straight poll showing both Labor and Shorten going backwards fast. It is normal in the post-transition honeymoon period for the polls to bounce around a bit. Abbott's peak polling in his short-lived honeymoon period was even higher. It didn't last, of course. We will have a better idea how both leaders and both major parties are travelling early in the new year. Sorry, Bam, there is now no effective opposition in Australian politics, as everybody knows. We can.pretend otherwise, but we all know the truth. Until LAbor find someone who isn’t a boring factional hack, Turnbull’s there for a generation.

I can't see the revolving door in Leadership of either party coming to a halt any time soon.  I recall the tumultuous days of Holt, McEwen, Gorton, McMahon, Snedden, Fraser (about whom Gorton famously remarked when Hawke won, beating Fraser.....'Congratulations for rolling that bastard, Fraser,') Peacock, Howard, Peacock, Hewson, Downer, and finally Liberal leadership settled on Howard and there was a period of stability in the Libs until he lost and then came Nelson, Turnbull, Abbott, and now Turnbull.  There is no Titan like Menzies.  And yeas, the ALP has obviously gone through the same revolving door...and they are yet to find their Champion as well.

Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 7:14pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 6:46pm: One poll, with a bias against Labor. The Green vote slipping back to its normal 8-9%. Will voters preference as in 2013? It's the 2nd or 3rd straight poll showing both Labor and Shorten going backwards fast.

It shows Mal had a sugar rush of polls that are now trending down. Even this IPSOS poll just says 50:50.

Its time wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 9:49pm:

Karnal wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 9:16pm: Bam wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 9:05pm: Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 7:14pm: Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 6:46pm: One poll, with a bias against Labor. The Green vote slipping back to its normal 8-9%. Will voters preference as in 2013? It's the 2nd or 3rd straight poll showing both Labor and Shorten going backwards fast. It is normal in the post-transition honeymoon period for the polls to bounce around a bit. Abbott's peak polling in his short-lived honeymoon period was even higher. It didn't last, of course. We will have a better idea how both leaders and both major parties are travelling early in the new year. Sorry, Bam, there is now no effective opposition in Australian politics, as everybody knows. We can.pretend otherwise, but we all know the truth. Until LAbor find someone who isn’t a boring factional hack, Turnbull’s there for a generation. You said Abort would win next election as well  ;)

Erection, Suppository. There's a difference.

Mr Abbott has a fine one.

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 19^th, 2015 at 9:08am:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 7:14pm: Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 6:46pm: One poll, with a bias against Labor. The Green vote slipping back to its normal 8-9%. Will voters preference as in 2013? It's the 2nd or 3rd straight poll showing both Labor and Shorten going backwards fast. It shows Mal had a sugar rush of polls that are now trending down. Even this IPSOS poll just says 50:50.

53/47, bedwetter!

This poll is depressing because it shows how stupid swing voters are.

No change in policy, rhetoric has only slightly changed to better marketing points (Innovation!, Competitive!) rhetoric from Morrison is even more right wing than Abbott (softening up for privatization of health/medicare and essential services), rhetoric on jobs moving back towards workchoices talking points and yet a 6 point lead in the polls!?

It really shows how much power the media has, that a dull potato like Turnbull is now a "suave, smooth talking statesman" while the other dull potato Shorten is "literally worse than cancer"

It shows that nothing is ever about policy, I now believe Abbott could have delivered the best utopian budgets ever and he still would have been at the same level of unpopularity.

This 50:50 poll shows people are relieved abbott is no longer PM. Policy has not changed so the polls will be heading downwards soon enough.

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 20^th, 2015 at 8:48am:

This 50:50 poll shows people are relieved abbott is no longer PM. Policy has not changed so the polls will be heading downwards soon enough.

Except Turnbulls polls are RISING.

Its bullshit, but Labor are in serious trouble. The issue is the media narrative is set and people just don't care about policy. I've seen political discussion groups that clearly sat in the left now circlejerking over Turnbull based on the fantasy hes a secret left winger or some crap.

What the liberals actually do or even really say doesn't matter, the Canberra Press Gallery has chosen Turnbull as the next PM so he will win the next election.

Do you think if Abbott had Morrison going around floating the privatization of medicare or getting rid of Weekend Penalty Rates it would be on page 35 in the bottom corner like it currently is under Turnbull? Nope, it would be front page.

Labor also have the strategy and PR of a dead rat (I mean, they couldn't even sell the merits of FTTP over FTTN FFS) so Labor are in a bad, bad position.

Another defeatist like Karnal.

The polls say 50:50. Rudd II got better polls, did he win the election?

Shorten and Labor have changed tactics in QT and are being highly effective. They have also already released a heap of good policy.

I am very optimistic about the next election.

Its time wrote on Oct 18^th, 2015 at 9:14pm:

The Aussie public generally vote on Charisma but we can thank Tony for putting them all under the blow torch now after without doubt the worst 2 years in my lifetime. Best of luck selling his policies turncoat  :D

without doubt the worst 2 years in my lifetime


blimey supp... sorry to hear that what happened to you??? what did b ig bad tony do to you???..

tell us give us the list... :'( :'( :'(

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 20^th, 2015 at 9:03am:

Another defeatist like Karnal. The polls say 50:50. Rudd II got better polls, did he win the election? Shorten and Labor have changed tactics in QT and are being highly effective. They have also already released a heap of good policy. I am very optimistic about the next election.

now now monk you have done it again  kruddy was Mr76% everyone adored him... even those selfies..I am sure your wall was covered.

tell us about those policies I must have missed them.. I dont do QT or Q&A...as for shortarse making his mark... hehehehehehehe.. but then you are so easily pleased arent you dear?...

but anyway those policies

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 20^th, 2015 at 9:03am:

Another defeatist like Karnal. The polls say 50:50. Rudd II got better polls, did he win the election? Shorten and Labor have changed tactics in QT and are being highly effective. They have also already released a heap of good policy. I am very optimistic about the next election.

Polls say 53/47 to Coalition.... and RISING!

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 20^th, 2015 at 9:03am:

They have also already released a heap of good policy.

If Policy mattered a single bit, then Libs would essentially never hold Government, Abbott would have lost in a landslide against Rudd.

The issue is that the media holds Labor to insane standards that it doesn't hold the libs too, Libs are seen as the "default" Governing party of Australia by the media and populace and never have to actually prove their worth and not only does Labor have both of these to contend with, Labors strategy and PR for DECADES has been atrocious and completely divorced from reality. This is the party that couldn't even sell the FTTP NBN.

Labor has always had good policy, but the huge (unfair) standards they are held too along with their terrible PR means they are F**ked, especially with the media and public circlejerk over Turnbull, hell I know Greens voters who are now preferencing Libs over Labor because of the perception of Turnbull.

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 20^th, 2015 at 9:03am:

Another defeatist like Karnal.

Depends on who gets defeated, dear. Malcolm Turnbull is simply the better man for the job. Shorten would be another Abbott - never a popular PM, hounded by the press for his gaffes, backflipping on important policies and unable to implement necessary reforms.

He would, just like Abbott, be knifed by his own party in his first term - if he got that far.

What Shorten represents is Labor's redundant, undemocratic factional system and the fixers within Labor ranks. Shorten's a fixer himself. His rise to the leadership is a victory for the invisible men.

The ALP has a lot more to do than just replacing Shorten. It needs to find a reason for its very existence. Then, and only then, it needs to build a system that reflects its purpose - open ballots? Closed ballots? Primaries? It needs to develop a rigorous preselection process. Many Labor MPs have no more employment experience than either working as political staffers or working for a union. The lack of clear, alternative leaders within the ALP highlights this lack of talent.

As Shorten's own career shows, the ALP uses seats in parliament as political rewards. Its mates in business kick in to fund the preselection process and the campaign. The ALP is not a meritocracy, it's an oligarchy, funded by big business. As Shorten's career also shows, this comes at the expense of the workers the unions and Labor are meant to be working for.

As leaders, Latham and Gillard both saw the need to recruit talent outside the narrow ALP career path. Latham headhunted Peter Garrett. It was interesting to see Garrett recently reflect on his time in politics. Was it worth it? Garrett couldn't say. The career Laborites see politics as an end in itself. Those who enter politics to change things see things differently. Latham himself exposed the futility of modern Labor politics. His advice to those who want to make a difference?

Don't bother.

With Abbott gone, the ALP is in now the political wilderness. With a new centrist strategy, I doubt Turnbull will bomb any time soon. Turnbull is now taking the middle ground from Labor.

It's time to get to work. The ALP needs to work on itself before it can do anything for anyone else. The last 6 years of Labor dysfunction and factional powerbroking expose this for all to see.

This isn't defeatism, it's the only thing that will work. Labor will not be electable until it reforms itself.

Karnal wrote on Oct 20^th, 2015 at 10:15am:

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 20th, 2015 at 9:03am: Another defeatist like Karnal. Depends on who gets defeated, dear. Malcolm Turnbull is simply the better man for the job. Shorten would be another Abbott - never a popular PM, hounded by the press for his gaffes, backflipping on important policies and unable to implement necessary reforms. He would, just like Abbott, be knifed by his own party in his first term - if he got that far. What Shorten represents is Labor's redundant, undemocratic factional system and the fixers within Labor ranks. Shorten's a fixer himself. His rise to the leadership is a victory for the invisible men. The ALP has a lot more to do than just replacing Shorten. It needs to find a reason for its very existence. Then, and only then, it needs to build a system that reflects its purpose - open ballots? Closed ballots? Primaries? It needs to develop a rigorous preselection process. Many Labor MPs have no more employment experience than either working as political staffers or working for a union. The lack of clear, alternative leaders within the ALP highlights this lack of talent. As Shorten's own career shows, the ALP uses seats in parliament as political rewards. Its mates in business kick in to fund the preselection process and the campaign. The ALP is not a meritocracy, it's an oligarchy, funded by big business. As Shorten's career also shows, this comes at the expense of the workers the unions and Labor are meant to be working for. As leaders, Latham and Gillard both saw the need to recruit talent outside the narrow ALP career path. Latham headhunted Peter Garrett. It was interesting to see Garrett recently reflect on his time in politics. Was it worth it? Garrett couldn't say. The career Laborites see politics as an end in itself. Those who enter politics to change things see things differently. Latham himself exposed the futility of modern Labor politics. His advice to those who want to make a difference? Don't bother. With Abbott gone, the ALP is in now the political wilderness. With a new centrist strategy, I doubt Turnbull will bomb any time soon. Turnbull is now taking the middle ground from Labor. It's time to get to work. The ALP needs to work on itself before it can do anything for anyone else. The last 6 years of Labor dysfunction and factional powerbroking expose this for all to see. This isn't defeatism, it's the only thing that will work. Labor will not be electable until it reforms itself.

Excellent Summation Karnal.

Karnal wrote on Oct 20^th, 2015 at 10:15am:

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 20th, 2015 at 9:03am: Another defeatist like Karnal. Depends on who gets defeated, dear. Malcolm Turnbull is simply the better man for the job. Shorten would be another Abbott - never a popular PM, hounded by the press for his gaffes, backflipping on important policies and unable to implement necessary reforms. He would, just like Abbott, be knifed by his own party in his first term - if he got that far. What Shorten represents is Labor's redundant, undemocratic factional system and the fixers within Labor ranks. Shorten's a fixer himself. His rise to the leadership is a victory for the invisible men. The ALP has a lot more to do than just replacing Shorten. It needs to find a reason for its very existence. Then, and only then, it needs to build a system that reflects its purpose - open ballots? Closed ballots? Primaries? It needs to develop a rigorous preselection process. Many Labor MPs have no more employment experience than either working as political staffers or working for a union. The lack of clear, alternative leaders within the ALP highlights this lack of talent. As Shorten's own career shows, the ALP uses seats in parliament as political rewards. Its mates in business kick in to fund the preselection process and the campaign. The ALP is not a meritocracy, it's an oligarchy, funded by big business. As Shorten's career also shows, this comes at the expense of the workers the unions and Labor are meant to be working for. As leaders, Latham and Gillard both saw the need to recruit talent outside the narrow ALP career path. Latham headhunted Peter Garrett. It was interesting to see Garrett recently reflect on his time in politics. Was it worth it? Garrett couldn't say. The career Laborites see politics as an end in itself. Those who enter politics to change things see things differently. Latham himself exposed the futility of modern Labor politics. His advice to those who want to make a difference? Don't bother. With Abbott gone, the ALP is in now the political wilderness. With a new centrist strategy, I doubt Turnbull will bomb any time soon. Turnbull is now taking the middle ground from Labor. It's time to get to work. The ALP needs to work on itself before it can do anything for anyone else. The last 6 years of Labor dysfunction and factional powerbroking expose this for all to see. This isn't defeatism, it's the only thing that will work. Labor will not be electable until it reforms itself.

The real Turnbull is probably worse than Abbott and the voters have enough time to work it out.

Nausicaa wrote on Oct 20^th, 2015 at 8:57am:

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 20th, 2015 at 8:48am: This 50:50 poll shows people are relieved abbott is no longer PM. Policy has not changed so the polls will be heading downwards soon enough. Except Turnbulls polls are RISING. Its bullshit, but Labor are in serious trouble. The issue is the media narrative is set and people just don't care about policy. I've seen political discussion groups that clearly sat in the left now circlejerking over Turnbull based on the fantasy hes a secret left winger or some crap. What the liberals actually do or even really say doesn't matter, the Canberra Press Gallery has chosen Turnbull as the next PM so he will win the next election. Do you think if Abbott had Morrison going around floating the privatization of medicare or getting rid of Weekend Penalty Rates it would be on page 35 in the bottom corner like it currently is under Turnbull? Nope, it would be front page. Labor also have the strategy and PR of a dead rat (I mean, they couldn't even sell the merits of FTTP over FTTN for goodness sake) so Labor are in a bad, bad position.

We don’t need fairweather friends and bedwetters like you!

Karnal wrote on Oct 20^th, 2015 at 10:15am:

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 20th, 2015 at 9:03am: Another defeatist like Karnal. Depends on who gets defeated, dear. Malcolm Turnbull is simply the better man for the job. Shorten would be another Abbott - never a popular PM, hounded by the press for his gaffes, backflipping on important policies and unable to implement necessary reforms. He would, just like Abbott, be knifed by his own party in his first term - if he got that far. What Shorten represents is Labor's redundant, undemocratic factional system and the fixers within Labor ranks. Shorten's a fixer himself. His rise to the leadership is a victory for the invisible men. The ALP has a lot more to do than just replacing Shorten. It needs to find a reason for its very existence. Then, and only then, it needs to build a system that reflects its purpose - open ballots? Closed ballots? Primaries? It needs to develop a rigorous preselection process. Many Labor MPs have no more employment experience than either working as political staffers or working for a union. The lack of clear, alternative leaders within the ALP highlights this lack of talent. As Shorten's own career shows, the ALP uses seats in parliament as political rewards. Its mates in business kick in to fund the preselection process and the campaign. The ALP is not a meritocracy, it's an oligarchy, funded by big business. As Shorten's career also shows, this comes at the expense of the workers the unions and Labor are meant to be working for. As leaders, Latham and Gillard both saw the need to recruit talent outside the narrow ALP career path. Latham headhunted Peter Garrett. It was interesting to see Garrett recently reflect on his time in politics. Was it worth it? Garrett couldn't say. The career Laborites see politics as an end in itself. Those who enter politics to change things see things differently. Latham himself exposed the futility of modern Labor politics. His advice to those who want to make a difference? Don't bother. With Abbott gone, the ALP is in now the political wilderness. With a new centrist strategy, I doubt Turnbull will bomb any time soon. Turnbull is now taking the middle ground from Labor. It's time to get to work. The ALP needs to work on itself before it can do anything for anyone else. The last 6 years of Labor dysfunction and factional powerbroking expose this for all to see. This isn't defeatism, it's the only thing that will work. Labor will not be electable until it reforms itself.

Much of this is identical with the Liberal party though and here is my issue, massive double standards, why aren't the Liberals held to any scrutiny? Why should Liberals "default" have Government when they are literally the party of no policies and no ideas? Howard was a lost decade, Abbott did so much damage he likely sabotaged Australian growth for a decade or more.

As poo as Labor is, they are still a million times better than the Liberals, I mean, whats Turnbulls big policy ideas? New copper, privatized medicare, cutting penalty rates and giving the Nationals Environmental control  ::).

Or everyone could do the smart thing and vote Green.

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 20^th, 2015 at 11:44am:

Nausicaa wrote on Oct 20th, 2015 at 8:57am: Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 20th, 2015 at 8:48am: This 50:50 poll shows people are relieved abbott is no longer PM. Policy has not changed so the polls will be heading downwards soon enough. Except Turnbulls polls are RISING. Its bullshit, but Labor are in serious trouble. The issue is the media narrative is set and people just don't care about policy. I've seen political discussion groups that clearly sat in the left now circlejerking over Turnbull based on the fantasy hes a secret left winger or some crap. What the liberals actually do or even really say doesn't matter, the Canberra Press Gallery has chosen Turnbull as the next PM so he will win the next election. Do you think if Abbott had Morrison going around floating the privatization of medicare or getting rid of Weekend Penalty Rates it would be on page 35 in the bottom corner like it currently is under Turnbull? Nope, it would be front page. Labor also have the strategy and PR of a dead rat (I mean, they couldn't even sell the merits of FTTP over FTTN for goodness sake) so Labor are in a bad, bad position. We don’t need fairweather friends and bedwetters like you!

If you are not a strawman parody account, its this attitude that is sending Labor to the gallows for no good reason. Did I say dump Shorten? did I say vote Turnbull? no, but Labor needs to rethink strategy and PR and fast because they are atrocious at it.

Again, they literally lost the narrative on FTTP vs FTTN, a drooling ape could win that argument, yet Labor lost it.

Dnarever wrote on Oct 20^th, 2015 at 10:56am:

The real Turnbull is probably worse than Abbott and the voters have enough time to work it out.

That would be impossible. Abbott's tendency was to orient himself towards the lunar right - Liberal Party factions that include, in NSW, the Uglies and the Religious Right. In popular terms, this was suicide, but Abbott always believed he could get away with it with help from talkback radio and News Ltd.

In political terms, it meant he needed to be economically dry, but socially conservative. Abbott needed to prove himself, so he took to the extreme in both camps. His first budget avoided any cuts to welfare for the rich, including super tax concessions and negative gearing. He aimed every budget saving at those on lower incomes, or even no incomes (such as making the unemployed wait 6 months for the dole). Even Hockey and Cormann, both economic dries, were rolled when they tried to aim cuts at the rich.

Abbott now calls his first budget "bold and brave", but it was only "bold" in its cuts to the poor. Abbott needed the business groups on side. They formed half of his political support in the Libs.

The other half were the social conservatives: monarchists, the Religious Right, and those alleged capital C Conservatives cheer-led by the News Ltd columnists, Bolt and Divine. Again, Abbott went to the extreme: knighting Prince Phillip, holding back gay marriage, and begging the US to bomb Syria so Australia could help out a bit. Abbott spent his time waging petty wars on the right's enemies and creating policies for its friends. Human rights and unions were among the enemies. The backflipped policy of changing the Racial Discrimination Act was all about vindicating Andrew Bolt, a friend. It was a policy early in Abbott's term, designed as a thank you to News Ltd for helping Abbott win the election.

Most of Abbott policies failed because they were extremist and unpopular. Most of his ideas failed to get traction for the same reason. Abbott appealed to an electoral minority. By clinging on to his support base, he alienated the electorate. The failure of this strategy was inevitable. However, Abbott also failed to keep his support base. By keeping Peta Credlin, he restricted their access. Abbott failed in all areas: policy, popularity, leadership and simple administration. Good government didn't have a chance.

Turnbull has no such problem. His pitch for challenging Abbott was about returning to the political centre. Where Abbott was on the fringe, Turnbull is in the mainstream. Where Abbott was loathed, Turnbull is popular with the voters. Where Abbott refused to communicate his policies and ideas, you can't stop Turnbull talking. Where Abbott alienated those in his own party, Turnbull has recruited Arthur Sinodinos to run a Howard-style inclusive leadership. Where Abbott's office were control freaks, by all accounts Turnbull delegates to his ministers and defers to cabinet.

So far, this is what voters have worked out (or it's what we're told). Turnbull is claiming the political centre - the space held by Labor. If he sticks to this strategy, Labor won't have a leg to stand on.

Another bedwetter.

Turnbull is no less right than abbott. Turnbull applauded WorkChoices, there are reports (not sure if I believe them) that abbott opposed it.

So Turnbull will not be an improvement for the Libs. They need actual policies and they/Malcolm can’t introduce any.

Malcolm also has a temper he finds hard to rein in and no judgement. He was LOTO once and got booted out. He will have learned that lesson: hew the hard right line and he can be PM in name. FFS he never got better than 50:50 in the sugar rush of polls, less than abbott got FFS!

Karnal wrote on Oct 20^th, 2015 at 12:02pm:

Dnarever wrote on Oct 20th, 2015 at 10:56am: The real Turnbull is probably worse than Abbott and the voters have enough time to work it out. That would be impossible. Abbott's tendency was to orient himself towards the lunar right - Liberal Party factions that include, in NSW, the Uglies and the Religious Right. In popular terms, this was suicide, but Abbott always believed he could get away with it with help from talkback radio and News Ltd. In political terms, it meant he needed to be economically dry, but socially conservative. Abbott needed to prove himself, so he took to the extreme in both camps. His first budget avoided any cuts to welfare for the rich, including super tax concessions and negative gearing. He aimed every budget saving at those on lower incomes, or even no incomes (such as making the unemployed wait 6 months for the dole). Even Hockey and Cormann, both economic dries, were rolled when they tried to aim cuts at the rich. Abbott now calls his first budget "bold and brave", but it was only "bold" in its cuts to the poor. Abbott needed the business groups on side. They formed half of his political support in the Libs. The other half were the social conservatives: monarchists, the Religious Right, and those alleged capital C Conservatives cheer-led by the News Ltd columnists, Bolt and Divine. Again, Abbott went to the extreme: knighting Prince Phillip, holding back gay marriage, and begging the US to bomb Syria so Australia could help out a bit. Abbott spent his time waging petty wars on the right's enemies and creating policies for its friends. Human rights and unions were among the enemies. The backflipped policy of changing the Racial Discrimination Act was all about vindicating Andrew Bolt, a friend. It was a policy early in Abbott's term, designed as a thank you to News Ltd for helping Abbott win the election. Most of Abbott policies failed because they were extremist and unpopular. Most of his ideas failed to get traction for the same reason. Abbott appealed to an electoral minority. By clinging on to his support base, he alienated the electorate. The failure of this strategy was inevitable. However, Abbott also failed to keep his support base. By keeping Peta Credlin, he restricted their access. Abbott failed in all areas: policy, popularity, leadership and simple administration. Good government didn't have a chance. Turnbull has no such problem. His pitch for challenging Abbott was about returning to the political centre. Where Abbott was on the fringe, Turnbull is in the mainstream. Where Abbott was loathed, Turnbull is popular with the voters. Where Abbott refused to communicate his policies and ideas, you can't stop Turnbull talking. Where Abbott alienated those in his own party, Turnbull has recruited Arthur Sinodinos to run a Howard-style inclusive leadership. Where Abbott's office were control freaks, by all accounts Turnbull delegates to his ministers and defers to cabinet. So far, this is what voters have worked out (or it's what we're told). Turnbull is claiming the political centre - the space held by Labor. If he sticks to this strategy, Labor won't have a leg to stand on.

Where I think Turnbull will be worse is that he will be able to sell otherwise unsellable ideas, if the Libs win the next election, its a basically a complete certainty penalty rates are gone, Unis and social services will be deregulated and the NBN half-assed rolled out then shitcanned half way through.

Abbott couldn't sell these ideas, but the rhetoric coming from the Libs currently is already selling up these ideas, Simon Birmingham was on RN talking about how great and successful TAFE deregulation is using the exact same rhetroic as Turnbull (Innovative, competitive) which is a blantant ramp up to Uni deregulation after the next election, Morrison is already going around flagging privatization of hospitals and services again with "innovation" and "competitiveness".

It was hilarious hearing Turnbull say we should copy the ideas of New Zealand, when Turnbull destroyed the NBN while NZ is in the final leg of a national FTTP rollout.

We were saved by Abbotts incompetence, Turnbull is a good salesman + the media is 100% on his side, this is why Turnbull will be worse.

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 20^th, 2015 at 12:07pm:

for goodness sake he never got better than 50:50 in the sugar rush of polls, less than abbott got for goodness sake!

The sugar rush polls are the ones now and in coming months.

After Abbott was disposed people were still unsure on the Libs so the swing wasn't great because they needed their views confirmed by their peers, the low and behold after Turnbull became "Socially acceptable" more and more rate him based on what everyone else is saying.

You are wrong, go on /r/Australia, 2 months ago that board was pro-Labor/Greens to the utmost extreme, now its mostly pro LNP/Turnbull this is because its now "socially acceptable" to admit you will vote LNP.

Turnbulls polls are going to rise and rise as people quickly forget Abbott, while Labor flail around like retards with petty attacks instead of hitting with all the actual real ammunition they have.

Again, Morrison is flagging deregulating social services, how is this not on the front page of everythinG, its far more right wing than anything Hockey did and Labor is giving it a pass. Almost silence on Turnbull calling for penalty rate cuts, silence on the complete criminal clusterbugger that is Turnbulls "NBN" meanwhile resorting to cheap petty personal attacks.

The sad thing is, the real opposition party these days are the Greens.

Nausicaa wrote on Oct 20^th, 2015 at 11:54am:

Much of this is identical with the Liberal party though and here is my issue, massive double standards, why aren't the Liberals held to any scrutiny? Why should Liberals "default" have Government when they are literally the party of no policies and no ideas? Howard was a lost decade, Abbott did so much damage he likely sabotaged Australian growth for a decade or more. As poo as Labor is, they are still a million times better than the Liberals, I mean, whats Turnbulls big policy ideas? New copper, privatized medicare, cutting penalty rates and giving the Nationals Environmental control  ::). Or everyone could do the smart thing and vote Green.

The way Labor conferences and the factional system works is not identical to the Libs. Sure, the Libs branch stack and are welded to their interest groups too, but the unions have an enormous structural power base within the ALP. They vote for policy at national conferences. They vote in leadership ballots. Through the factions, they control preselection. In 2010, they were instrumental in deposing a popularly-elected first-term PM.

Rudd stood outside the factions, and he did nothing to cultivate them. He relied on the support of Gillard, and he held the leadership through her numbers. When the NSW and Victorian Right made the decision to join forces with the Left and back Gillard, Rudd was history.

After the fallout of the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd fiasco, Labor has returned to form. The rise of Shorten and Albanese as rival leaders is solely factional. Rudd's reforms to the party did not go far enough. The 50-50 split between members and the national caucus to vote in leaders is still subject to factional control. Shorten is not there because of his political experience or any inherent skills in communication or policy formation, he's there because he's a factional broker.

Labor is still operating under a Cold War factional system that is completely at odds with modern forms of consensus and decision making. At Labor Party conferences, delegates still come in crowing about the numbers they "represent". An AWU or CMFEU delegate claims to represent hundreds of thousands of workers with a form of authority totally divorced from reality.

This represents a time when workers had to join the union to keep their jobs, and as a member of that union, were told how to vote. Many were required to join the ALP itself, and were told which delegates to vote for. The unions controlled vast segments of the population, and worked in tandem with the ALP. The system was kept together by fixers, usually the secretaries of state Labor branches or big trade unions. These power-brokers were factional overlords. They managed the votes at state and national conferences, they managed three levels of government, and they even managed local services in strongly held Labor electorates. They put people in jobs and they approved development. They influenced friendly magistrates and high ranking police, and they got things done.

This system worked in industrial, working class areas, and it's why the ALP was established. The unions were the sword, the Labor Party was the shield. Today, this system represents very few. The ALP has become little more than a career path for those left in the system. Whitlam, and then Hawke/Keating tried to change this model, but they left it intact.

Shorten represents this model's comeback. In Shorten, the faceless men now have a face, but the only people they "represent" is themselves.

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 20^th, 2015 at 12:07pm:

Another bedwetter. Turnbull is no less right than abbott.

And yet, many of the Libs hate him for being too "left". Within the Libs, Turnbull has a lot to prove.

Turnbull made his pitch for the top job for being much less right than Abbott, and to date, everything he's said reflects this. Of course he's far less right than Abbott. 

Yes, Turnbull will bring back something that looks like Workchoices, and yes, he's going to bring in some unpopular economic policies. He'll have to. He needs to throw the Right a few bones to keep them in the tent. His halo is going to disappear eventually.

But - the government is facing a revenue/spending problem. No matter who's in charge will be forced to make some tough decisions. Turnbull has staked his claim on the promise that he can sell these decisions better than Abbott. Many of Abbott's first budget measures are back on the table, such as university reform. The GST hike is a given.

In government, Shorten too would need to make such decisions. Australia is on the brink of recession for the first time in 20 years. The nature of the economy is changing. The government is being weaned off years of mining revenues, all wasted, and this at a time when there is little manufacturing left in Australia. One of the highest sources of GDP is now the government itself, and its growing.

This is not a good time to be in power for anyone, but make no mistake. Shorten faces the same challenges as Turnbull.

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