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http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl General Discussion >> General Board >> Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1448406701 Message started by bogarde73 on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 9:11am

Title: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by bogarde73 on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 9:11am

That's across the globe and that's a lot of unemployment.
Technology again mostly.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/every-second-banker-may-lose-job-within-10-years-barclays-exboss-20151124-gl78wk.html

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by innocentbystander. on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 9:27am

Looks like jobs will become harder to come by in the future and this is why we must import hundreds of thousands of unskilled migrants :D :D :D

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by perceptions_now on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 10:53am

bogarde73 wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 9:11am:

And, the Consequences, of these & other, Actions & Inactions???

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by Maqqa on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 11:12am

The word "banker" is interesting

The a business owner - banker means the relationship manager that looks after the business with its banking needs

To the doctor it means the personal who looks after their loans and all their banking needs

To the pensioner it means the teller who process their passbook on a periodical basis

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by Kytro on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 11:29am

Don't expect this trend to go anyway anytime soon.

There are many industries likely be affected by automation, up to 40% of jobs could be at risk just with the technology we have now (once it is cheaper than they are).

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by Maqqa on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 11:31am

Kytro wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 11:29am:

There are jobs today that didn't exist 30 years ago

Add to that the world has significantly increased its workforce

Things will change and there will be jobs

The question is - will Australians pick it up or do we need to import workers in?

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by bogarde73 on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 1:14pm

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 10:53am:

bogarde73 wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 9:11am:

And, the Consequences, of these & other, Actions & Inactions???

I honestly don't know perceptions.

Some people see a problem on the horizon and ask what course should we steer.

I see a problem on the horizon and look the other way.

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by Kytro on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 1:26pm

Maqqa wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 11:31am:

Kytro wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 11:29am:

You're dreaming if you think job creation is going to outpace automation.

While there are new jobs, the vast majority are employed in jobs that existed in some form 100 years ago.

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by Maqqa on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 1:54pm

Kytro wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 1:26pm:

Maqqa wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 11:31am:

Kytro wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 11:29am:

You're dreaming if you think job creation is going to outpace automation.

While there are new jobs, the vast majority are employed in jobs that existed in some form 100 years ago.

Your post shows you did not understand what I wrote

(1) The world population has grown in 1974 it was 4 billion, 5 billion in 1987, 7 billion in 2011 and 8 billion by 2024. The growth rate is ever increasing
(2) The workforce are more transient
(3) Despite this there is work if you want it i.e. job creation

Show me figures where you think automation is outpacing job creation

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by Kytro on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 4:45pm

Maqqa wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 1:54pm:

Kytro wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 1:26pm:

Maqqa wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 11:31am:

Kytro wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 11:29am:

You're dreaming if you think job creation is going to outpace automation.

While there are new jobs, the vast majority are employed in jobs that existed in some form 100 years ago.

It's a natural consequence of automation. Once a job is automated cost effectively, then it's gone.

Consider the number of people in the Taxi Industry in Australia, there are about 70,000 drivers, jobs that will eventually go.

The CEDA report found that about five million jobs (40%) are likely to be replaced in the next two decades and an additional 18.4 per cent of the workforce could be a reasonable risk.

This isn't some wild speculation.

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by The Grappler on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 7:31pm

Now, then Human Banker.. about your position........

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by perceptions_now on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 7:53pm

Maqqa wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 1:54pm:

Kytro wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 1:26pm:

Maqqa wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 11:31am:

Kytro wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 11:29am:

You're dreaming if you think job creation is going to outpace automation.

While there are new jobs, the vast majority are employed in jobs that existed in some form 100 years ago.

Your post shows you did not understand what I wrote

(1) The world population has grown in 1974 it was 4 billion, 5 billion in 1987, 7 billion in 2011 and 8 billion by 2024. The growth rate is ever increasing
(2) The workforce are more transient
(3) Despite this there is work if you want it i.e. job creation

Show me figures where you think automation is outpacing job creation

That IS NOT CORRECT!
The Growth Rate has actually been in Decline, for quite some time, with Fertility Rates having Peaked at over 5 in the 50's & now it is lucky to be over Replacement level of 2, in many countries.

In fact, some countries are already in Decline in respect of their Total Population, Japan being the most noticeable.

Many other countries will shortly follow that path AND the Global Total Population will be lucky IF it reaches 8 Billion, BEFORE GOING INTO DECLINE UNTIL THE END OF THIS CENTURY AND PERHAPS DECLINING TO 3-4 BILLION.

That is now in the process of change, IF in fact, it ever existed!

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by Maqqa on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 9:04pm

perception

lets see your reference

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by perceptions_now on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 11:05pm

Maqqa wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 9:04pm:

perception

lets see your reference

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

Maqqa,
1) What part/s of what I wrote, do you not agree with?
2) Did you actually take any time, to look thru your own reference?
Perhaps, you could start by looking under -

Growth Rate
Population in the world is currently (as of 2015-2016) growing at a rate of around 1.13% per year. The average population change is currently estimated at around 80 million per year.

Annual growth rate reached its peak in the late 1960s, when it was at 2% and above. The rate of increase has therefore almost halved since its peak of 2.19 percent, which was reached in 1963.

The annual growth rate is currently declining and is projected to continue to decline in the coming years. Currently, it is estimated that it will become less than 1% by 2020 and less than 0.5% by 2050.
==============================================
Oh & btw, I may agree with some of the projected outcomes, in YOUR SOURCE, but I would suggest they may be a little out in some of their projections

As for the Declining Fertility rate -
World historical TFR (1950–2015)
UN, medium variant, 2010 rev.[2]
Years TFR
1950–1955 4.95
1955–1960 4.89
1960–1965 4.91
1965–1970 4.85
1970–1975 4.45
1975–1980 3.84
1980–1985 3.59
1985–1990 3.39
1990–1995 3.04
1995–2000 2.79
2000–2005 2.62
2005–2010 2.52
2010–2015 2.36
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by perceptions_now on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 2:40pm

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 11:05pm:

Maqqa wrote on Nov 25^th, 2015 at 9:04pm:

perception

lets see your reference

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

So Maqqa, I hope you have now, at least, actually read a little of your own reference and you now have "some" understanding, at least of "some" of the Demographic issues now in play?

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by Maqqa on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 3:39pm

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 2:40pm:

So Maqqa, I hope you have now, at least, actually read a little of your own reference and you now have "some" understanding, at least of "some" of the Demographic issues now in play?

Growth rate is interesting and the fact that you think population will decrease to 3-4 Billion. Half the world will die off? How would you reconcile this with life expectancy data saying we live longer and medical advances keeps us all living longer

In my link look at how long it took to reach each billion of population.

Even by your reduced rate of increase - the increase is applied to a larger base. For example

2% increase on 4B gives a different number than 2% on 7B

So read the link again and see that
(1) It took the world 1800 years to reach 1B people
(2) It took the world 200 years to go from 1B to 7B
(3) 3B to 4B it took 14 years
(4) 4B to 5B it took 13 years

You assume the fertility rate have a direct correlation to total population. This is why you've posted a decline in total population

A simple analysis shows a direct application is useless.

Lets assume when the world was at 2B and assume 50/50 male/female. This means there's 1B females And assume all female is able to bear children. If each female bear 3 children means the population increase by 3B

When the world is at 7B - the same assumption means 3.5B females. If each female has 1 child this still mean 3.5B increase

So despite a drop in of fertility rate from 3 to 1 - the population is still growing

You still have not taken into account China just removed its one child policy

Have you taken into account the Infant Mortality rate over the period you've stated i.e. 1950 to 2015

In the example you posted - Fertility rate in 1950 is 4.95

Infant Mortality rate for China went from 122 to 22
Infant Mortality rate for India went from 165 to 63

This means females breed more but more died

Over to you

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by beer on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 4:15pm

Don't worry, in my experience, this world can hold at least 20 billion and every one will have job. Don't you see girl in shopping centers, polish their neils and wash each other's feet, that service industry, isn't it.

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by perceptions_now on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:35pm

Maqqa wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 3:39pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 2:40pm:

So Maqqa, I hope you have now, at least, actually read a little of your own reference and you now have "some" understanding, at least of "some" of the Demographic issues now in play?

Tell you what Maqqa, how about you read the info on the following thread, it MAY provide you with "some" insights into current & future Demographic Realities?
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1276775027/all
But, there again, MAYBE NOT!

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by The Grappler on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:38pm

beer wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 4:15pm:

... or in the streets, polishing knobs and washing out after contact....... that service industry fo' many in Thir' Worl'....

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by Maqqa on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:42pm

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:35pm:

Tell you what PN

You got caught out

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by perceptions_now on Nov 27^th, 2015 at 10:53am

Maqqa wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:42pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:35pm:

Tell you what PN

You got caught out

So Maqqa -
It seems your own expectations, of your own SPIN,
are only exceeded by your lack of understanding of Reality,
both in what you yourself present & what others present to you!

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by Maqqa on Nov 27^th, 2015 at 2:50pm

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 27^th, 2015 at 10:53am:

Maqqa wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:42pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:35pm:

Tell you what PN

You got caught out

So Maqqa -
It seems your own expectations, of your own SPIN,
are only exceeded by your lack of understanding of Reality,
both in what you yourself present & what others present to you!

I've already presented my findings in this thread and explained it's relevance

Your information is lacking at best

Title: Re: Half of bank jobs to go in next 10 years
Post by perceptions_now on Nov 27^th, 2015 at 3:41pm

Maqqa wrote on Nov 27^th, 2015 at 2:50pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 27^th, 2015 at 10:53am:

Maqqa wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:42pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 26^th, 2015 at 10:35pm:

Tell you what PN

You got caught out

So Maqqa -
It seems your own expectations, of your own SPIN,
are only exceeded by your lack of understanding of Reality,
both in what you yourself present & what others present to you!

I've already presented my findings in this thread and explained it's relevance

Your information is lacking at best

Well, that's good Maqqa, BUT you didn't read your own information properly AND you couldn't have read much of the thread I posted, let alone have absorbed & understood it!

Oh & a little more for you -
Size and economic impact
Seventy-six million American children were born between 1945 and 1964, representing a cohort that is significant on account of its size alone.
In 2004, the UK baby boomers held 80% of the UK's wealth and bought 80% of all top of the range cars, 80% of cruises and 50% of skincare products.

The age wave theory suggests an economic slowdown when the boomers start retiring during 2007–2009.
Projections for the aging U.S. workforce suggest that by 2020, 25% of employees will be at least 55 years old.

Baby boomers control over 80% of personal financial assets and more than half of all consumer spending. They buy 77% of all prescription drugs, 61% of over-the-counter drugs, and 80% of all leisure travel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomers
==============================================
Baby Boomers comprise about 25% of the Global Population & over the next 20 years or so, the vast majority will die!

The Baby Bump Economic impact, will be enormous, both coming & going!