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General Discussion >> General Board >> Japan's population is shrinking. Halving by 2082
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Message started by Svengali on May 5th, 2016 at 11:51am

Title: Japan's population is shrinking. Halving by 2082
Post by Svengali on May 5th, 2016 at 11:51am
This could be a major factor in why Japanese economy has been moribund for 2 decades. Population growth is an economic stimulant. Population decline is recessionary.

Japan's reasons are mostly economic. Children are expensive; and the overworked Japanese don't have enough free time to care for their own children.

China is facing the same problem with a fast aging population.

http://www.marketplace.org/2016/04/18/world/babies


Quote:
Japan’s population is shrinking – fast. Plummeting birthrates are a larger problem faced by countries around the world, including Italy, Germany and Greece.  But Japan is at the forefront. Yu Korekawa, a senior researcher with the Population Dynamics Research department at Japan’s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research showed me a report on the future of the country’s population. It’s 42 pages long, but bottom line the numbers don’t look good -- Japan’s population is expected to shrink in half by the year 2082.  In 2010, the country's population was 128 million. By 2082, that number is projected to drop to 64 million.

While we were talking, Korekawa continually opened and closed his eyes. He looked tired. “I have two babies. Two daughters – one is seven years old and the other one is just eight months,” he said. “My wife is working and it’s kind of very difficult,” he said.

According to Korekawa, Japan’s population decline is mainly due to economics. Real estate is expensive. And if you work long hours you have to pay for childcare. It’s simple math. People just can’t afford to have enough kids to keep up with population losses. The magic number is 2.1. That’s how many kids Japanese families need to have, on average, to keep up with population losses. Instead, they’re only having 1.4 kids. 

Title: Re: Japan's population is shrinking. Halving by 2082
Post by freediver on May 5th, 2016 at 6:53pm
China is booming because of the one child policy. They were literally starving a generation or two back. The only reason they have an "ageing population" crisis is because they went from starving to death to outliving their ancestors by decades in a very short period. Which 'problem' would you rather have?

Tell me Svengali, if your country can not produce enough food to feed yourself, and you try to double the population, what do you think is going to happen?

Title: Re: Japan's population is shrinking. Halving by 2082
Post by red baron on May 5th, 2016 at 7:14pm
Sounds like a winner to me

Title: Re: Japan's population is shrinking. Halving by 2082
Post by The Grappler on May 5th, 2016 at 7:57pm
As long as they retain the 50% who are gorgeous women.. preferably classy of Samurai standing..... at some level and the higher the class the better .... man.. that Yamamoto woman some years back.. class all the way.....

Title: Re: Japan's population is shrinking. Halving by 2082
Post by Svengali on May 5th, 2016 at 9:46pm

freediver wrote on May 5th, 2016 at 6:53pm:
China is booming because of the one child policy. They were literally starving a generation or two back. The only reason they have an "ageing population" crisis is because they went from starving to death to outliving their ancestors by decades in a very short period. Which 'problem' would you rather have?

Tell me Svengali, if your country can not produce enough food to feed yourself, and you try to double the population, what do you think is going to happen?


Two billion Freediver clones?

Title: Re: Japan's population is shrinking. Halving by 2082
Post by AiA on May 5th, 2016 at 11:31pm
I spent 16 years in Japan and am not so sure its shrinking birthrate can be attributed to economic reasons or any single reason at all. As women become more educated they have fewer children. This has been noted all over the world. Japan is on the cusp of a massive population decline exacerbated by lack of immigration. Other countries aren't far behind.

Title: Re: Japan's population is shrinking. Halving by 2082
Post by Svengali on May 6th, 2016 at 12:01am

AiA wrote on May 5th, 2016 at 11:31pm:
I spent 16 years in Japan and am not so sure its shrinking birthrate can be attributed to economic reasons or any single reason at all. As women become more educated they have fewer children. This has been noted all over the world. Japan is on the cusp of a massive population decline exacerbated by lack of immigration. Other countries aren't far behind.


Parts of Europe are facing a less steep population decline and they will also experience the negative economic consequences. Reduced consumption and high social costs from an excessive proportion of aged population.

Title: Re: Japan's population is shrinking. Halving by 2082
Post by ian on May 6th, 2016 at 12:03am
fertility is declining in industrialised societies Thats the elephant in the room.

Title: Re: Japan's population is shrinking. Halving by 2082
Post by Svengali on May 6th, 2016 at 12:07am

ian wrote on May 6th, 2016 at 12:03am:
fertility is declining in industrialised societies Thats the elephant in the room.


In ian's case that is beneficial to society.

Title: Re: Japan's population is shrinking. Halving by 2082
Post by freediver on May 7th, 2016 at 9:37am

Svengali wrote on May 6th, 2016 at 12:01am:

AiA wrote on May 5th, 2016 at 11:31pm:
I spent 16 years in Japan and am not so sure its shrinking birthrate can be attributed to economic reasons or any single reason at all. As women become more educated they have fewer children. This has been noted all over the world. Japan is on the cusp of a massive population decline exacerbated by lack of immigration. Other countries aren't far behind.


Parts of Europe are facing a less steep population decline and they will also experience the negative economic consequences. Reduced consumption and high social costs from an excessive proportion of aged population.


Would you prefer we continue ramping up the global population exponentially so as to maintain recent patterns of age distribution within society?

Title: Re: Japan's population is shrinking. Halving by 2082
Post by Svengali on May 7th, 2016 at 9:45am

freediver wrote on May 7th, 2016 at 9:37am:

Svengali wrote on May 6th, 2016 at 12:01am:

AiA wrote on May 5th, 2016 at 11:31pm:
I spent 16 years in Japan and am not so sure its shrinking birthrate can be attributed to economic reasons or any single reason at all. As women become more educated they have fewer children. This has been noted all over the world. Japan is on the cusp of a massive population decline exacerbated by lack of immigration. Other countries aren't far behind.


Parts of Europe are facing a less steep population decline and they will also experience the negative economic consequences. Reduced consumption and high social costs from an excessive proportion of aged population.


Would you prefer we continue ramping up the global population exponentially so as to maintain recent patterns of age distribution within society?


Perhaps we could employ blokes with spear guns to accelerate the population decline.

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