https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/Nate_Silver_2009.png/220px-Nate_Silver_2009.png

nobody can know who will win the 2016 US presidential election but there is data worth paying attention to, that of statistician Nate Silver, based on his impressive track record. 

As of two hours ago he put Hillary at a 67.1 % chance of winning using the "polls-only forecast":

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

If the election were held today (again, updated 2 hours ago) Hillary has a 69.6% of winning:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

Again, these are forecasts, but Nate Silver's track record is so good that his forecasts are the ones to watch.

As of 47 minutes ago Hillary Clinton has a 66.8% chance of winning in the polls-only forecast.

Sure, if you watch the news your attention is focused on Trump, Trump, Trump and Hillary's "mystery" illness so naturally you would think Trump will win. I am not saying he will not, however. The mind gives causality to whatever it is focused on whether causality exists or not.

Down to 64.3%

She's going down quicker than Monica in a blue dress.

Sunny_beach_babe wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 7:16am:

Down to 64.3% She's going down quicker than Monica in a blue dress.

No, 64.1% as of now, Chinaman. Kind of like blood pressure, up and down.

Just to clarify; what is a percentage of a chance?

issuevoter wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 8:20am:

Just to clarify; what is a percentage of a chance?

Chance of winning.

As of 19 minutes ago Clinton has a 63.6% chance of winning to Trump's 36.3%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

The trend is your friend.

Egg is for Gweg.

Sunny_beach_babe wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:10pm:

The trend is your friend. Egg is for Gweg.

a fearsome oriental whoopin online ass

Hillary will win.

Anyone wanna make a bet?

Of course not: gutless bitches.

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:14pm:

Hillary will win. Anyone wanna make a bet? Of course not: gutless bitches.

If the election were held today, Clinton would win.

AiA wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:16pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 15th, 2016 at 10:14pm: Hillary will win. Anyone wanna make a bet? Of course not: gutless bitches. If the election were held today, Clinton would win.

She has been invisible for several days now.  Even Trump seems to have backed off.  The campaign (both sides) seems to be stalled for the moment.  Yeas?

Aussie wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:22pm:

AiA wrote on Sep 15th, 2016 at 10:16pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 15th, 2016 at 10:14pm: Hillary will win. Anyone wanna make a bet? Of course not: gutless bitches. If the election were held today, Clinton would win. She has been invisible for several days now.  Even Trump seems to have backed off.  The campaign (both sides) seems to be stalled for the moment.  Yeas?

I suspect Trump backing off is the result of advice from his new handler. He is letting Hillary's health speak for itself.

AiA wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:16pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 15th, 2016 at 10:14pm: Hillary will win. Anyone wanna make a bet? Of course not: gutless bitches. If the election were held today, Clinton would win.

She'll win, on any day.

I guarantee it.

Hilary is toast.
Gweggy can dip his face in her.

Sunny_beach_babe wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:33pm:

Hilary is toast. Gweggy can dip his face in her.

Wanna place a bet, bitch?

I dont bet with known liars.

You can't be trusted, because you lie.

Quote:

I suspect Trump backing off is the result of advice from his new handler. He is letting Hillary's health speak for itself.

Clinton's health is still a subject of the conspironut theorists, but....it cannot be denied she had serious wobbles at that 9/11 event, said to be pneumonia.  I know nothing about politics in the USA but I'd be staggered if the corpse of Clinton could not beat Trump.

Aussie wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 10:51pm:

Quote: I suspect Trump backing off is the result of advice from his new handler. He is letting Hillary's health speak for itself. Clinton's health is still a subject of the conspironut theorists, but....it cannot be denied she had serious wobbles at that 9/11 event, said to be pneumonia.  I know nothing about politics in the USA but I'd be staggered if the corpse of Clinton could not beat Trump.

Progressives are known for their distance from reality.

Clinton has a 62.3% chance of winning as of this minute. Trump is at 37.7%

the race is tightening:  Clinton at 61%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Sunny_beach_babe wrote on Sep 15^th, 2016 at 11:01pm:

Progressives are known for their distance from reality.

Yet you pretend to be Lisa Jones  :o

Trump to be President.

AiA wrote on Sep 16^th, 2016 at 4:59am:

Sunny_beach_babe wrote on Sep 15th, 2016 at 11:01pm: Progressives are known for their distance from reality. Yet you pretend to be Lisa Jones  :o

You pretend you're not stupid.

AiA wrote on Sep 16^th, 2016 at 2:08am:

Clinton has a 62.3% chance of winning as of this minute. Trump is at 37.7%

BRILLIANCE IN 3 PARTS This is a cry from an American who loves his country.!!!!!!



Part I:

A. Back off and let those men who want to marry men, marry men.

B. Allow those women who want to marry women, marry women.

C. Allow those folks who want to abort their babies, abort their babies.

D. In three generations, there will be very few Democrats.



Part II:

Ten Poorest Cities in America  (How did it happen?) 

City, State, % of People Below the Poverty Level



1. Detroit, MI 32.5%

2. Buffalo, NY 29.9%

3. Cincinnati, OH 27.8%

4. Cleveland, OH 27.0%

5. Miami, FL 26.9%

5. St. Louis, MO 26.8%

7. El Paso, TX 26.4%

8. Milwaukee, WI 26.2%

9. Philadelphia, PA 25.1%

10. Newark, NJ 24.2%



What do these top ten cities (over 250,000 pop.) with the highest poverty rate all have in common?



Detroit, MI - (1st on poverty rate list) hasn't elected a Republican mayor since 1961

Buffalo, NY - (2nd) hasn't elected one since 1954

Cincinnati, OH - (3rd) not since 1984

Cleveland, OH - (4th) not since 1989

Miami, FL - (5th) has never had a Republican mayor

St. Louis, MO - (6th) not since 1949

El Paso, TX - (7th) has never had a Republican mayor

Milwaukee, WI - (8th) not since 1908

Philadelphia, PA - (9th) not since 1952

Newark, NJ - (10th) not since 1907



Einstein once said, 'The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.' :) :)

It is the poor who habitually elect Democrats... yet they are still POOR.
::)


Part III:

"You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich.

You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.

You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.

You cannot lift the wage earner up by pulling the wage payer down.

You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred.

You cannot build character and courage by taking away people's initiative and independence.

You cannot help people permanently by doing for them, what they could and should do for themselves."



~Abraham Lincoln



"Any man who thinks he can be happy and prosperous by letting the government take care of him had better take a much closer look at the

American Indian."



~Henry Ford



Six trivia questions to see how much history you really know.  Be honest; it's kind of fun and revealing.  If you don't know the answer, make your best guess.  Answer all of the questions (no cheating) before looking at the answers.



1) "We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good."



A. Karl Marx               B. Adolph Hitler           C.  Joseph Stalin

D. Barack Obama                E. None of the above



2) "It's time for a new beginning, for an end to government of the

few, by the few, and for the few... and to replace it with shared responsibility, for shared prosperity."



A. Lenin                     B. Mussolini                C. Idi Amin

D. Barack Obama                E. None of the above



3) "(We).... can't just let business as usual go on, and that means something has to be taken away from some people."



A. Nikita Khrushchev    B.  Joseph Goebbels     C. Boris Yeltsin

D. Barack Obama                E. None of the above



4) "We have to build a political consensus and that requires people to give up a little bit of their own ... in order to create this common ground."



A. Mao Tse Tung         B. Hugo Chavez          C. Kim Jong II

D. Barack Obama                E. None of the above



5) "I certainly think the free-market has failed."



A.  Karl Marx              B. Lenin                     C. Molotov

D. Barack Obama                E. None of the above



6) "I think it's time to send a clear message to what has become the most profitable sector in (the) entire economy that they are being watched."



A. Pinochet                 B. Milosevic                C. Saddam Hussein

D. Barack Obama                E. None of the above



No peeking!






Scroll down for answers...







(1)  E. None of the above.  Statement was made by Hillary Clinton 

6/29/2004



(2)  E. None of the above.  Statement was made by Hillary Clinton

5/29/2007



(3)  E. None of the above.  Statement was made by Hillary Clinton

6/4/2007



(4)  E. None of the above.  Statement was made by Hillary Clinton

6/4/2007



(5)  E. None of the above.  Statement was made by Hillary Clinton

6/4/2007



(6)  E. None of the above.  Statement was made by Hillary Clinton

9/2/2005

cods wrote on Sep 16^th, 2016 at 2:23pm:

AiA wrote on Sep 16th, 2016 at 2:08am: Clinton has a 62.3% chance of winning as of this minute. Trump is at 37.7% BRILLIANCE IN 3 PARTS This is a cry from an American who loves his country.!!!!!! Part I: A. Back off and let those men who want to marry men, marry men. B. Allow those women who want to marry women, marry women. C. Allow those folks who want to abort their babies, abort their babies. D. In three generations, there will be very few Democrats. Part II: Ten Poorest Cities in America  (How did it happen?)  City, State, % of People Below the Poverty Level 1. Detroit, MI 32.5% 2. Buffalo, NY 29.9% 3. Cincinnati, OH 27.8% 4. Cleveland, OH 27.0% 5. Miami, FL 26.9% 5. St. Louis, MO 26.8% 7. El Paso, TX 26.4% 8. Milwaukee, WI 26.2% 9. Philadelphia, PA 25.1% 10. Newark, NJ 24.2% What do these top ten cities (over 250,000 pop.) with the highest poverty rate all have in common? Detroit, MI - (1st on poverty rate list) hasn't elected a Republican mayor since 1961 Buffalo, NY - (2nd) hasn't elected one since 1954 Cincinnati, OH - (3rd) not since 1984 Cleveland, OH - (4th) not since 1989 Miami, FL - (5th) has never had a Republican mayor St. Louis, MO - (6th) not since 1949 El Paso, TX - (7th) has never had a Republican mayor Milwaukee, WI - (8th) not since 1908 Philadelphia, PA - (9th) not since 1952 Newark, NJ - (10th) not since 1907 Einstein once said, 'The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.' :) :) It is the poor who habitually elect Democrats... yet they are still POOR. ::) Part III: "You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich. You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong. You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift. You cannot lift the wage earner up by pulling the wage payer down. You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred. You cannot build character and courage by taking away people's initiative and independence. You cannot help people permanently by doing for them, what they could and should do for themselves." ~Abraham Lincoln "Any man who thinks he can be happy and prosperous by letting the government take care of him had better take a much closer look at the American Indian." ~Henry Ford Six trivia questions to see how much history you really know.  Be honest; it's kind of fun and revealing.  If you don't know the answer, make your best guess.  Answer all of the questions (no cheating) before looking at the answers. 1) "We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good." A. Karl Marx               B. Adolph Hitler           C.  Joseph Stalin D. Barack Obama                E. None of the above 2) "It's time for a new beginning, for an end to government of the few, by the few, and for the few... and to replace it with shared responsibility, for shared prosperity." A. Lenin                     B. Mussolini                C. Idi Amin D. Barack Obama                E. None of the above 3) "(We).... can't just let business as usual go on, and that means something has to be taken away from some people." A. Nikita Khrushchev    B.  Joseph Goebbels     C. Boris Yeltsin D. Barack Obama                E. None of the above 4) "We have to build a political consensus and that requires people to give up a little bit of their own ... in order to create this common ground." A. Mao Tse Tung         B. Hugo Chavez          C. Kim Jong II D. Barack Obama                E. None of the above 5) "I certainly think the free-market has failed." A.  Karl Marx              B. Lenin                     C. Molotov D. Barack Obama                E. None of the above 6) "I think it's time to send a clear message to what has become the most profitable sector in (the) entire economy that they are being watched." A. Pinochet                 B. Milosevic                C. Saddam Hussein D. Barack Obama                E. None of the above No peeking! Scroll down for answers... (1)  E. None of the above.  Statement was made by Hillary Clinton  6/29/2004 (2)  E. None of the above.  Statement was made by Hillary Clinton 5/29/2007 (3)  E. None of the above.  Statement was made by Hillary Clinton 6/4/2007 (4)  E. None of the above.  Statement was made by Hillary Clinton 6/4/2007 (5)  E. None of the above.  Statement was made by Hillary Clinton 6/4/2007 (6)  E. None of the above.  Statement was made by Hillary Clinton 9/2/2005

I got your 6 questions wrong

Clinton:  59.7% chance of winning - polls-only forecast.

Clinton: 60.2% chance of winning in the only poll/forecast that matters.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Who Cares, either will be entertaining.

Probably depends if you prefer a male of female imbercile.

Though the male option would definitely be a huge threat to the world.

But possibly he could get caught up building "The great wall of stupidity".

Trump will win.....SHillary is burnt toast! ;)

Trump will win it.

Hillary is the bizzarro option by far.  She is not going to win. No way.
Donald is the sanity, healthy, competent, able  option. She is simply not an option compared to him.i

Frank wrote on Sep 18^th, 2016 at 9:57pm:

Trump will win it. Hillary is the bizzarro option by far.  She is not going to win. No way. Donald is the sanity, healthy, competent, able  option. She is simply not an option compared to him.

I agree.  Would not be surprised for the DNC to give her the flick in the next week and try again with someone else.  Won't matter - Trump will be the next President.  And the US will change.  The world map will look different by the end of the second term....

..

The MSM has had a meltdown, a flat out apoplectic fit. https://i.imgsafe.org/342daf5.gif https://i.imgsafe.org/342daf5.gif https://i.imgsafe.org/342daf5.gif

Jimmy Fallon broke one of their cardinal rules.....don't let Donald Trump look like anything but a bad guy, a monster, a Hitleresque Nazi, ....& don't, by any means whatsoever let him enjoy himself in the public eye ... like a 'regular' guy would......well they've gone absolutely apoplectic!

Livid because of this:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPh_raqO_A0

Then it led to this, something I never thought I'd ever see Trump let someone do.....ever.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0BYqzdiuJc

Words out, Fallon want's to do a strip search of Hillary next week.....stay tuned! https://i.imgsafe.org/080eb5d.gif


(link) See how the MSM & the Progressive left has taken to Fallon's Trump spot. They didn't like Fallon's "normalization" of Trump .. not one lil bit!!


..

https://s3.graphiq.com/sites/default/files/stories/t4/25_Numbers_That_Define_Donald_Trump_10559_7422.jpg

As of 9 hours ago Hillary Clinton has a 61.1% chance of winning.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

AiA wrote on Sep 19^th, 2016 at 10:54pm:

As of 9 hours ago Hillary Clinton has a 61.1% chance of winning. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

2 weeks ago it was 80%.

about 6 weeks ago it was over 90%

Quote:

Donald Trump is gaining support among African-American voters — whose enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton is eroding, a tracking poll released Saturday revealed. Trump saw a 16.5 percentage-point increase in backing from African-American voters in a Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California tracking poll, up from 3.1 percent on Sept. 10 to 19.6 percent through Friday. Meanwhile, the same poll showed Clinton’s support among that group plummeting from 90.4 percent on Sept. 10 to 71.4 percent. Clinton’s nearly 20-point crash began Sunday, said Dan Schnur of USC. Sunday was the day Clinton was recorded collapsing while entering a Secret Service van at a 9/11 event. The survey, which spanned through Friday, included the days in which Trump reignited the divisive “birther” issue — which critics contend is a thinly veiled attempt to undermine the legitimacy of the country’s first black president. Late Wednesday, Trump had refused to acknowledge that President Obama was born in the United States, demurring on the topic in a Washington Post interview published the next day. But at a bizarre press conference at Trump International, his new ­hotel in Washington, DC, on Friday, the tycoon conceded, “President Barack Obama was born in the United States, period.” For the week, the poll found a 6-point rise for Trump. The Republican is now at 47.2 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 41.2 percent. “It’s the largest shift we’ve seen in a one-week period since we began polling in July,” Schnur said.

http://nypost.com/2016/09/18/black-voters-are-turning-from-clinton-to-trump-in-new-poll/

as of 1 hour ago ...........

Currently, Clinton is at 60.4% chance of winning according to the most historically accurate forecaster, Nate Silver.

The race is becoming more competitive for a number of reasons.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

the race continues to become more competitive with Hillary at 58.5% to Trump's 41.5%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Anyone familiar with the term "October Surprise"?

Genius statistician Nate Silver has Clinton at 56.8% to Trump's 43.2% as of 15 minutes ago ... the race is competitive, as it should be.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

AiA wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2016 at 6:37am:

Genius statistician Nate Silver has Clinton at 56.8% to Trump's 43.2% as of 15 minutes ago ... the race is competitive, as it should be. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Percentages are fine, but unless you chart them they don't actually mean much, especially this far from election day.


It's all about TRENDS....this far out it's only TRENDS that mean anything.....who's hot & who's not:


http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2370/N3X8GO.jpg
;) 8-) ;)

Panther wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2016 at 12:38pm:

AiA wrote on Sep 22nd, 2016 at 6:37am: Genius statistician Nate Silver has Clinton at 56.8% to Trump's 43.2% as of 15 minutes ago ... the race is competitive, as it should be. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo Percentages are fine, but unless you chart them they don't actually mean much, especially this far from election day. It's all about TRENDS....this far out it's only TRENDS that mean anything.....who's hot & who's not: http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2370/N3X8GO.jpg ;) 8-) ;)

IS that like the trend that its getting warmer, or that there are more shootings in the US?

This election is still almost two months away. Anyone who claims to know who will win is talking through their arse.

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2016 at 12:55pm:

Panther wrote on Sep 22nd, 2016 at 12:38pm: AiA wrote on Sep 22nd, 2016 at 6:37am: Genius statistician Nate Silver has Clinton at 56.8% to Trump's 43.2% as of 15 minutes ago ... the race is competitive, as it should be. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo Percentages are fine, but unless you chart them they don't actually mean much, especially this far from election day. It's all about TRENDS....this far out it's only TRENDS that mean anything.....who's hot & who's not: http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2370/N3X8GO.jpg ;) 8-) ;) IS that like the trend that its getting warmer, or that there are more shootings in the US?

Neither of those mean jack squat donkey boy......Political Polling Trends are the only trends germane to this threads topic. ;)

Belgarion wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2016 at 1:00pm:

This election is still almost two months away. Anyone who claims to know who will win is talking through their arse.

Spot on, to a degree, well almost 50% anyway. 

The election is just over 46 days away, & anyone who claims they know who will win, & specifies who, has a 50% chance of being correct in a 2 person race, which in reality, this is.  https://i.imgsafe.org/a7da108.gif

Belgarion wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2016 at 1:00pm:

This election is still almost two months away. Anyone who claims to know who will win is talking through their arse.

Care to make a wager?

Hillary will win ... comfortably.

Hillary has a 58.8% chance of winning as of 41 minutes ago according to statistician genius Nate Silver:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

AiA wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2016 at 6:37am:

Genius statistician Nate Silver has Clinton at 56.8% to Trump's 43.2% as of 15 minutes ago ... the race is competitive, as it should be. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Could be a close armwrestle

I think the demos 'traditional' voters will leave them in droves.
The track record of the democrats is poor.

Sprintcyclist wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2016 at 12:10am:

AiA wrote on Sep 22nd, 2016 at 6:37am: Genius statistician Nate Silver has Clinton at 56.8% to Trump's 43.2% as of 15 minutes ago ... the race is competitive, as it should be. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo Could be a close armwrestle I think the demos 'traditional' voters will leave them in droves. The track record of the democrats is poor.

I think you're right Sprint........the polls seem to show Trump's making inroads into the Black & Hispanic (yes, you heard right....Hispanics.....there are more Spanish speaking voters out there than Mexicans....many more in fact) Black & Hispanic voters......the traditional "Taken For Granted" demonrat base voters......for 2-3 reasons...

Hillary isn't seen as doing much, except lip service, for them economically....the message being put out by the Republicans on how they've fared poorly under Obama is hitting home (that Hillary won't do better, probably worse), & secondly being there is no real incentive to vote for Hillary outside of her being a demonrat (the first woman president in history thingie really doesn't seem to excite them like the first Black president allure did), & besides they are seeing her as a frail/sickly candidate, & to get what they want/need/wish for, they would need a stronger, projecting, healthier candidate.......another successful Republican message they're being hammered with.

With that said, I see a lot of those voters, & many white demorats too, either voting for another candidate who can win, or staying home & skipping this election.

12 hours ago Clinton had a 60.5% chance of winning according to genius Nate Silver. We will see what the new day in North America will bring ...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

A new day has dawned in America and Clinton's chances of winning/losing are essentially unchanged:  60.3%.

I suspect the upcoming debates will be the most important since Nixon v JFK.  Trump has new handlers which are framing him in a new way ... and it seems to be working. But the debates will leave him exposed. He has nothing to gain from the debates since what he is and has been doing is working fine but could he refuse to do the debates without destroying his chances?

Clinton - 60.8% chance of winning as of 4 hours ago

Much will depend on how each candidate fares in the upcoming debates.

Will Hillary choke?

Lionel Edriess wrote on Sep 24^th, 2016 at 10:03pm:

Much will depend on how each candidate fares in the upcoming debates. Will Hillary choke?

Trump has never debated in his life. Ever. About anything.

Lionel Edriess wrote on Sep 24^th, 2016 at 10:03pm:

Much will depend on how each candidate fares in the upcoming debates. Will Hillary choke?

Will Hillary cancel ?

Sprintcyclist wrote on Sep 24^th, 2016 at 10:46pm:

Lionel Edriess wrote on Sep 24th, 2016 at 10:03pm: Much will depend on how each candidate fares in the upcoming debates. Will Hillary choke? Will Hillary cancel ?

Trump has little to gain from the debates and a lot to lose. If anyone "cancels" it would be him. And it wouldn't be unexpected. He has been a bitchy little baby about the moderators, careful that no one would dare fact-check him.

in the paper today there is some US guy who had predicted every winner since 1984..

He's picking Trump to win based on the formula he uses..

although.. he said that this was not a certainty as Trump is a unique character etc..

early polling is suggesting a post-debate bump for Clinton who as of 9 hours ago has a 57.9% chance of winning according to genius statistician Nate Silver.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Why isn't he questioning claims like this?


Quote:

Hillary’s top donor country is selling off ISIS sex slaves. That’s right, SEX SLAVES. Hillary takes millions of dollars from these savages who ABUSE women and gays – yet she calls herself a “champion of women” and “pro-gay?” No, sorry, that hypocrisy won’t work anymore, lady. Hillary calls Trump supporters “deplorable” yet she TAKES MONEY from men who sell women as sex slaves, stone women, and don’t allow women to drive? How can any women or gay person support this monster?

http://12.onsocialengine.com/post/5683167/breaking-isis-sex-slaves-being-sold-off-to-highest-bidder-in-hil

Hillary may have gotten that small post-debate bump as she now has a 62.2% chance of winning. 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Lionel Edriess wrote on Sep 24^th, 2016 at 10:03pm:

Much will depend on how each candidate fares in the upcoming debates. Will Hillary choke?

How could she have, unless she fell stone dead from one of her fits.....she's had everything well prepared from hours upon hours of cramming, with the live updates in her ear from her team throughout the debate, etc....etc....etc...

It all came down to expectations......Trump hardly prepared, just showed up actually, & was only expected to jump over a bar six inches off the ground, where SHillary, because of her hours of preps, years of litigation as a successful lawyer for prestigious law firms, years as a Senator pontificating daily on the floor of the U.S. Senate, years as the Secretary of State traveling country to country.....always under sniper fire... https://i.imgsafe.org/a7da108.gif, & those famous countless hours making millions on the Wall Street talk circuit, Shillary needed to do better than Moses did with the 10 Commandments on Mt Sinai, just to treed head above water! https://i.imgsafe.org/3cbdeb1.gif

Yep, in the end it was all about expectations.......that was, & will be, the bottom line.  ;)

She didnt have an earpiece.

..

News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash.............News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash.............News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash.............News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash.............News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash.............News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash.............News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash.............News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash.............News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash.............News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash.............News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash.............News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash...........News Flash.............News Flash...........

Presidential Historian Says Trump Will Win Election




Quote:

Cambridge, MASS - Harvard Historian Peter Lodensplatz predicts Donald Trump will be America's next President. He claims his Presidential prediction model superior to all others because it is based on "all American Presidential elections" dating back to the Articles of Confederation. "If pressed, most experts wouldn't be able to tell you if there even were Presidents back then," says Lodensplatz. Most Presidential election prediction models use some kind of a "checklist." Is the economy growing? Is there a foreign policy crisis? Has the same party been in power more than 8 years? "I use those factors too, and they have powerful predictive propensities," said Lodensplatz. "But I also include 'cock' on my list." Lodnesplatz's model has a total of 11 factors, and the first ten factors led to a tie between Trump and Clinton. "That left us with the strongest predictor of success in a Presidential election - does the winning candidate have a cock? Signs point to a Trump victory when that criterion is taken into account." Lodensplatz was careful to explain that the 'cock question' pertains to whether it is actually attached to the candidate's body. "Clinton may at any given moment have a cock - in her hand, up her butt, down her throat - but that's not the salient feature. The question is: is the cock part of her actual anatomy? Or, at the end of the day, does it really belong to someone else?" Lodnesplatz said all winning American Presidential candidates, dating back to the Articles of Confederation, have had cocks. "Though correlation is not causation, the fact that all winning candidates have had cocks nonetheless makes a cock a pretty powerful predictor of who's going to win." Lodensplatz has been widely criticized for not taking into account the unprecedented fact that one candidate - Hillary Clinton - is a female and can't have a cock in any kind of permanent sense. "True," he acknowledges, "but Thomas Dewey's cock was shot off when he was 23 in some kind of freak duck hunting incident, and none of Chester Arthur's opponents had cocks, all of them having been severed in one way or another during the Civil War." Historians say that in early American history, it was not at all unusual for Presidential candidates not to have cocks. Especially if they had lived on the frontier. "Woods animals often snuggle up near the cock and balls to stay warm and often gnawed off a drunken frontiersman's wang if they woke up hungry and wanted a midnight snack," says Brown Historian Peter Wood. "James Fremont, for example, had his dick bit off by a gopher during his ill fated invasion of California," Wood said. Wood went on to say that animal attacks on cocks occur to this day but are rarely reported because the victims are embarrassed. "I mean, who's going to call the local news station to tell them a bear swiped their dick off this summer in Yosemite?" Officials from the Department of Fish and Wildlife reports that at the end of the summer vacation season, forest and other park workers find gnarled remain of human cocks "everywhere." "Coyote cubs are especially fond of the human cock, seeing it as a kind of 'chew toy,'" a Park Ranger who preferred to remain anonymous said. The official said he has clamored for years to try to get the Department to put up warning signs to deter tourists from showing wild animals their dicks and to take protective measures in their tents but his pleas have gone unheeded. Senior officials said they're not about to go putting up signs with arrows over stick figures waving their dongs provocatively at rattlesnakes. Lodenplatz also pointed out that 90 percent of the time when both candidates have had cocks, the one with the bigger cock has won. "There appears also to be some connection between cock size and margin of victory."......Continued in the next post

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Quote:

Continuation from previous post........ Lodensplatz cited Barry Goldwater's "thimble dick" as the reason for his landslide loss to Lyndon Baynes Johnson, who was "hung like James Polk." "That means more cock equals electoral success," he said. "So Clinton's "zero cock" in the face of however much cock Trump may or may not have, spells a Trump victory in November." Lodensplatz admitted his model is not perfect, and that there are exceptions to "the biggest cock wins" rule. "The most recent exception was when Jimm Carter beat Gerald Ford," Lodensplatz said. "Ford's cock was bigger; so big, in fact, that he often tripped over it." He cited an embarrassing incident when Gerald Ford emerged from Air Force One and waved at a welcoming delegation in the Philippines, only to step on his own cock as he descended and fall down the airplane stairs. "That forever branded him a retard in the eyes of a big enough portion of the electorate to doom his chances at re-election," Lodensplatz said. Lodensplatz said retards with big cocks usually don't get any further in life than retards without them. "Once the electorate thought Ford was a 'tard, no amount of cock could ever rescue him from defeat at the polls," he said. "Richard Nixon and John F. Kennedy were tied in length. Nixon's was fatter in the shaft while Kennedy had a much more bulbous head, and historians to this day have no idea who really won that election, thanks to ballot stuffing in Texas for Johnson and in mafia strongholds for Kennedy," Lodensplatz said. Other Presidential Election models suggest a close race but a Trump victory too, but all of them have other factors than Trump's cock pointing to him winning in November. "There is also always the chance of an 'October Surprise'," Lodensplatz said, referring to a revelation just as the election nears that upsets all prediction models. And what if that surprise turns out to be that Hillary Clinton has a cock? "Strictly speaking, my model would give it to her if Trump's cock is smaller , but, I think a woman with a huge cock might be such an inherently hideous idea that victory would go to Trump," Lodensplatz said.

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Hillary had a good week because Trump had a bad week:  he has been on the defensive about his "fat" comments for days now while not only has Hillary had a post-debate  bump, her supporters are getting re-energized.

AiA wrote on Sep 30^th, 2016 at 10:00pm:

Hillary had a good week because Trump had a bad week:  he has been on the defensive about his "fat" comments for days now while not only has Hillary had a post-debate  bump, her supporters are getting re-energized.

Sort of like ................ Dawn of the Dead ........
The 'Clinton Machine' at it's Fraudulent Old-Self Best!




Source:      The Colorado Newswire    
Quote:

Everything is in place for Hillary Clinton, every judge is in place, and nothing has been overlooked in what will be the most embarrassing display of voter fraud and deceit ever heaped on a people up to and including the Kim Jong-un “elections” in North Korea, the Manuel Noriega reign in Panama, and the grand theft of California from Bernie Sanders. A CBS4 Denver investigation has found multiple cases of dead men and women voting for Hillary Clinton in Colorado months and in some cases years after their deaths, a revelation that raises questions about safeguards apparently in place to prevent such cases of election fraud. “We do believe there were several instances of potential vote fraud that occurred,” said Colorado Secretary of State Wayne Williams after reviewing the CBS4 revelations. “It shows there is the potential for fraud.” This new scandal comes days after news broke that Clinton’s lead over Trump has shrunk in Colorado and Virginia, two states that traditionally favor Democrats. CBS Denver reports: The cases of dead men and women casting ballots ranged from El Paso County in southern Colorado to Denver and Jefferson County. CBS4 discovered the fraudulent voting by comparing databases of voting histories in Colorado against a federal death database. The CBS4 investigation has triggered criminal investigations in El Paso and Jefferson counties along with a broad investigation by the Colorado Secretary of State’s office...........continued

http://www.starshipearththebigpicture.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Hillary-dead-bodies.jpg

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https://s14.postimg.org/y6ckta3xd/massivevoterfraud.jpg




Source:      The Washington Times      
Quote:

It’s easy to feel lost in a nation of 320 million. But it’s the strength and glory of the American way that the least among us has a say, no smaller and no bigger than anyone else, with a vote on Election Day. The stakes for charting the future have rarely been higher, as the face-off between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on Monday night demonstrated. Vote fraud dilutes the value of the ballots cast by the eligible, and that should disturb and anger us all. If elections aren’t fair, the democratic process is a sham. Colorado has uncovered a “very serious” pattern of ballots filed by mail in the name of the dead. Mail-in balloting makes voting more convenient but early voting distorts the decision and risks making the result a fraud. Numbers of fraudulent votes cast are undetermined thus far, but officials in El Paso County, Colorado, acknowledge that an investigation by television reporters turned up legitimate examples of illegal activity. “We do believe there were several instances of potential vote fraud that occurred,” says Colorado Secretary of State Wayne Williams. “It shows there is the potential for fraud.” County election officials say they removed the names of 448 dead people from voter rolls before the news report was aired, and found an additional 78 names while rechecking. Illicit ballots — even if discovered at a tiny portion of the thousands of polling stations across the country — could add up to number large enough to alter an outcome. Researchers at Old Dominion University in Virginia, studying a sample portion of the 2010 voting in the midterm elections, estimated that 2.2 percent of ballots were cast by voters who are not citizens. With Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton running neck and neck nationwide, a single percentage point swing in key states could mean the difference between a President Clinton and a President Trump...........continued

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Trumps poor performance in the debate I think hurt his chances a lot but worse still his dummy spit
afterwards has probably done irreparable damage.

Who would have thought that he would virtually admit paying no tax and ripping off his contractors.

Who Will Win the Presidency?

The next president of course. easy question.

AiA wrote on Sep 30^th, 2016 at 10:00pm:

Hillary had a good week because Trump had a bad week:  he has been on the defensive about his "fat" comments for days now while not only has Hillary had a post-debate  bump, her supporters are getting re-energized.

she could have a bit of a sympathy vote when she had a little wobble..you guys are between a rock and a hard place really.. whoever wins.. will have a huge number who will never accept them as their Pres.... it will be one hard slog I would think...unless something BIG saves them...

a bit like Turnbull he is waiting for his BIG moment to help save him.. :) :)

cods wrote on Oct 1^st, 2016 at 11:30am:

.........She could have a bit of a sympathy vote when she had a little wobble..you guys are between a rock and a hard place really.. whoever wins.. will have a huge number who will never accept them as their Pres.... it will be one hard slog I would think..........unless something BIG saves them...

It will be like when George Bush won the Presidency in 2000.

Millions of Americans actually found out at the same time that they didn't live in a Democracy when Al Gore, the incumbent vice-president, won the vote to be the President of the United States......he had more votes than Bush.....but to their amazement, Bush was declared the winner & became President!!!!

That's why 50% of Americans never accepted Bush as their President.


But.....How??? Why???

Simple.......America isn't a Democracy where the majority rules, no, America is a Constitutional Republic, where Presidents are chosen by an Electoral College....Americans don't actually vote for the President, they vote for representatives of a College called the Electoral College (look it up on Wikipedia), that actually picks the President. All the laws governing this can be found in the United States Constitution, which is the Supreme Law of the Land in America.

JFYI......When any official, Soldier, Law Enforcment Officer, Judge, Mayor, Senator, Representative, or even a dog catcher is sworn into office.....they have one allegiance first & foremost, they pledge an oath to defend the U.S. Constitution......not any leader, not any government, not any flag, not even the country they live in.....they pledge an oath to support & defend the United States Constitution from all enemies foreign or domestic......look up the Oaths of Office in America, & you will see I'm 100% correct. ;)


Quote:

“I, ............. , do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter. So help me God.”

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Sep 30^th, 2016 at 1:37pm:

She didnt have an earpiece.

Clinton's superior debate performance is helping her in swing states. Trump is now more unpopular than Hillary and that is also helping her.

As of 2 hours ago Hillary has a 67.7% chance of winning.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Panther wrote on Oct 1^st, 2016 at 12:00pm:

When any official, Soldier, Law Enforcment Officer, Judge, Mayor, Senator, Representative, or even a dog catcher is sworn into office.....they have one allegiance first & foremost, they pledge an oath to defend the U.S. Constitution......not any leader, not any government, not any flag, not even the country they live in.....they pledge an oath to support & defend the United States Constitution from all enemies foreign or domestic......look up the Oaths of Office in America, & you will see I'm 100% correct. Quote: “I, ............. , do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter. So help me God.”

I understand that.. after all no good pledging to a person and then they drop dead...or get shot as in America.. ::)..

the country is not a man or women... it is US everyone we all count.. we just have to have the one person who is meant to be the leader ......in this case.. they have not exactly first class choices......but then who are we to talk?..

As of 7 minutes ago, Nate Silver gave Hillary a 67.7% chance of winning.

Will the information coming out about Trump being a major tax cheat affect the polling this week?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

AiA wrote on Oct 3^rd, 2016 at 10:35pm:

As of 7 minutes ago, Nate Silver gave Hillary a 67.7% chance of winning. Will the information coming out about Trump being a major tax cheat affect the polling this week? http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Tax cheat?

He would be a tax cheat only if he broke the law.

From what I read it seems he used the tax laws to his advantage.....as is permitted within the law.....therefore he isn't a tax cheat, if anything it proves he's smart (or his accountants are smart, & he just knows how to hire the best accountants who are fluent in tax law....now that's smart). ;)

Panther wrote on Oct 3^rd, 2016 at 11:05pm:

AiA wrote on Oct 3rd, 2016 at 10:35pm: As of 7 minutes ago, Nate Silver gave Hillary a 67.7% chance of winning. Will the information coming out about Trump being a major tax cheat affect the polling this week? http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo Tax cheat? He would be a tax cheat only if he broke the law. From what I read it seems he used the tax laws to his advantage.....as is permitted within the law.....therefore he isn't a tax cheat, if anything it proves he's smart (or his accountants are smart, & he just knows how to hire the best accountants who are fluent in tax law....now that's smart). ;)

I suspect Trump not paying taxes for 20 years will influence the polls in Hillary's favor whether hairs are split or not ...

It is rumoured that one of Trump's ex-wives, Marla Maples, released his 1995 tax return  :D

Another rumor is that Trump released them himself so he could spin the story.

Yep, polls are reacting to Trump not paying his taxes: 

Hillary Clinton now has a 71.8% chance of winning according to genius statistician Nate Silver.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

AiA wrote on Oct 4^th, 2016 at 10:09am:

Yep, polls are reacting to Trump not paying his taxes:  Hillary Clinton now has a 71.8% chance of winning according to genius statistician Nate Silver. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

100%, actually.

Hillary will win ... comfortably.

Trump - the alleged child rapist - will fade into obscurity.

His fifteen minutes is almost up.

AiA wrote on Oct 3^rd, 2016 at 11:16pm:

Panther wrote on Oct 3rd, 2016 at 11:05pm: AiA wrote on Oct 3rd, 2016 at 10:35pm: As of 7 minutes ago, Nate Silver gave Hillary a 67.7% chance of winning. Will the information coming out about Trump being a major tax cheat affect the polling this week? http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo Tax cheat? He would be a tax cheat only if he broke the law. From what I read it seems he used the tax laws to his advantage.....as is permitted within the law.....therefore he isn't a tax cheat, if anything it proves he's smart (or his accountants are smart, & he just knows how to hire the best accountants who are fluent in tax law....now that's smart). ;) I suspect Trump not paying taxes for 20 years will influence the polls in Hillary's favor whether hairs are split or not ...

That's where you underestimate the American public......they know tax laws very well.....not intimately, as if they could use them to the degree that Trump does, but they know of their existence, & the need for them to exist in their economy.

A sizable portion of Americans pay virtually no Federal Taxes....or very little Tax.....simply because of their long lists of personal exemptions, & deductions provided to every American in the tax codes.

Take Bankruptcy laws for instance.

The general public has used those laws quite regularly over the last 50 years, so they are acutely aware of the benefits of those laws. And as far as write-offs, again, the general public has also been using them to their advantage for decades as well, & enjoy their ability to lessen their tax burdens legally.

The American people also know if that they can legally stave off the debt collectors for 10 years, the statute of limitations runs out on debt, & for all it's worth they become debt free, & their credit ratings usually self-cleanse too. Not like here where personal debt never subsides, & will hound you way past the grave.

The only people that will cry foul are those that have been stirred up to hate anyone with more than they have.....it's called class envy.....a tool that the demonrats have relied upon for decades. They use Hate & Envy like no other, & have no equal.

Panther wrote on Oct 4^th, 2016 at 10:30am:

AiA wrote on Oct 3rd, 2016 at 11:16pm: Panther wrote on Oct 3rd, 2016 at 11:05pm: AiA wrote on Oct 3rd, 2016 at 10:35pm: As of 7 minutes ago, Nate Silver gave Hillary a 67.7% chance of winning. Will the information coming out about Trump being a major tax cheat affect the polling this week? http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo Tax cheat? He would be a tax cheat only if he broke the law. From what I read it seems he used the tax laws to his advantage.....as is permitted within the law.....therefore he isn't a tax cheat, if anything it proves he's smart (or his accountants are smart, & he just knows how to hire the best accountants who are fluent in tax law....now that's smart). ;) I suspect Trump not paying taxes for 20 years will influence the polls in Hillary's favor whether hairs are split or not ... That's where you underestimate the American public......they know tax laws very well.....not intimately, as if they could use them as Trump does, but they know of their existence, & the need for them to exist in their economy. Take Bankruptcy laws for instance. The general public has used those laws quite regularly over the last 50 years, so they are acutely aware of the benefits of those laws. And as far as write-offs, again, the general public has also been using them to their advantage for decades as well, & enjoy their ability to lessen their tax burdens legally. The American people also know if that they can legally stave off the debt collectors for 10 years, the statute of limitations runs out on debt, & for all it's worth they become debt free, & their credit ratings usually self-cleanse too. Not like here where personal debt never subsides, & will hound you way past the grave. The only people that will cry foul are those that have been stirred up to hate anyone with more than they have.....it's called class envy.....a tool that the demonrats have relied upon for decades. They use Hate & Envy like no other, & have no equal.

Look up a couple of posts and see how Trump not paying his taxes has given Clinton quite a large bump in the polls:  71.8% chance of winning. I reckon a man barely getting by might feel a bit of resentment towards a man with everything not paying any taxes ...

Quote:

That's where you underestimate the American public......they know tax laws very well.....not intimately, as if they could use them to the degree that Trump does, but they know of their existence, & the need for them to exist in their economy. A sizable portion of Americans pay virtually no Federal Taxes....or very little Tax.....simply because of their long lists of personal exemptions, & deductions provided to every American in the tax codes. Take Bankruptcy laws for instance. The general public has used those laws quite regularly over the last 50 years, so they are acutely aware of the benefits of those laws. And as far as write-offs, again, the general public has also been using them to their advantage for decades as well, & enjoy their ability to lessen their tax burdens legally. The American people also know if that they can legally stave off the debt collectors for 10 years, the statute of limitations runs out on debt, & for all it's worth they become debt free, & their credit ratings usually self-cleanse too. Not like here where personal debt never subsides, & will hound you way past the grave. The only people that will cry foul are those that have been stirred up to hate anyone with more than they have.....it's called class envy.....a tool that the demonrats have relied upon for decades. They use Hate & Envy like no other, & have no equal.

AiA wrote on Oct 4^th, 2016 at 10:41am:

Look up a couple of posts and see how Trump not paying his taxes has given Clinton quite a large bump in the polls:  71.8% chance of winning. I reckon a man barely getting by might feel a bit of resentment towards a man with everything not paying any taxes ...

Oh, & are we're to suppose that the Clinton's are the Poster Children for how the uber-rich should pay their taxes? https://i.imgsafe.org/080eb5d.gif

Most major polls (between 29 Sept & 2 Oct) show the leads are basically all within the "margin of error"......pretty much too close to call by
any stretch. ;)


https://www.dailywire.com/sites/default/files/uploads/2016/10/rcp_general_election_4_9.29.2016.jpg


https://www.dailywire.com/sites/default/files/uploads/2016/10/rcp_electoral_map_10.3.2016.jpg

Hillary is really pulling ahead, as of 45 minutes ago she has a 75% chance of winning.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Looking a lot better for Hilary right now.

Agnes wrote on Oct 6^th, 2016 at 2:07am:

Looking a lot better for Hilary right now.

Yes, as of 12 minutes ago Hillary has a 75.4% chance of winning. Of course, that figure will change. Who knows what will happen in these next weeks?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

What a smacking joke that alleged "debate" was. Two overly white Casper ghost candidates who offer nothing but more war. 

When they couldn't agree on more war, austerity and a continued capitals assault on the poor all they had left was to interrupt, contradict, insult, and belittle each other. Incessantly, like two little children throwing temper tantrums on who can swing their dick in the wind Better than the other guy. 

Looks like who gets in to rape what's left of the world from the Oval Office will definitely be intensifying the scarier-than-hell crap currently going on in Syria between US-backed Islamic rebels (a.k.a. the real terrorists) on the one book end and the Russian-backed government of President Bashar al-Assad on the other. Oh boy!

Nothing on education/student debt, environmental issues, minimum wage. Just two blathering idiots with massive hard ons for war.

Disgusting.

Marla wrote on Oct 6^th, 2016 at 2:44am:

What a smacking joke that alleged "debate" was. Two overly white Casper ghost candidates who offer nothing but more war.  When they couldn't agree on more war, austerity and a continued capitals assault on the poor all they had left was to interrupt, contradict, insult, and belittle each other. Incessantly, like two little children throwing temper tantrums on who can swing their dick in the wind Better than the other guy.  Looks like who gets in to rape what's left of the world from the Oval Office will definitely be intensifying the scarier-than-hell crap currently going on in Syria between US-backed Islamic rebels (a.k.a. the real terrorists) on the one book end and the Russian-backed government of President Bashar al-Assad on the other. Oh boy! Nothing on education/student debt, environmental issues, minimum wage. Just two blathering idiots with massive hard ons for war. Disgusting.

https://i.imgsafe.org/164e640.gif  So, Marlaushka, regardless on how you vote (if you do, but good chance you won't).....because it's abundantly obvious it won't be one of those two......but, that said, it will be one of those two taking over for 4 year when Obama leaves his ghetto, which one do you 'feel' will be the one who will be the new "Head Whitey In Charge"?    https://i.imgsafe.org/164e640.gif

Geez, that doesn't roll off the tongue as nicely as HNIC does.... https://i.imgsafe.org/19a04c7.gif

AiA wrote on Oct 6^th, 2016 at 2:18am:

Agnes wrote on Oct 6th, 2016 at 2:07am: Looking a lot better for Hilary right now. Yes, as of 12 minutes ago Hillary has a 75.4% chance of winning. Of course, that figure will change. Who knows what will happen in these next weeks? http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

tell me AiA do Americans only get two people to vote for in your elections....

like its..

1/Hillary

2/Donald..


what if you want to vote but not for either???..

a protest vote for instance.. I find it hard to believe ..

Americans cant do better than this pair to be honest....and some very hardened voters must feel the same way..

so how do they send a message?...

not voting doesnt seem to matter over there.

AFAIK.....In America you protest in 2 ways.......either you don't vote at all....or you vote 3rd party....neither will affect the actual outcome.....

We can even vote fourth Party.

http://www.jill2016.com/

Quote:

...................Thursday, October 06, 2016 Donald Trump has gained another point on Hillary Clinton in the wake of Tuesday night’s vice presidential debate. The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with a 43% to 41% lead over Clinton. Yesterday, he was ahead 42% to 41%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson again earns eight percent (8%) of the vote, while three percent (3%) prefer the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) Trump has been edging back all week. He was five points ahead of Clinton going into their first debate last week but then fell behind by three after widespread criticism of his debate performance. By this past Monday, however, the two major party candidates were in a near tie, and Trump has gained a point on Clinton each day since then. Eighty-one percent (81%) say in the latest survey that they are already certain how they will vote, and Trump posts an equally narrow 49% to 47% lead among these voters. Among those who say they still could change their minds, it’s Trump 31%, Clinton 29%, Johnson 27% and Stein 13%. Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters. This is the first survey in which one of the survey nights follows the vice presidential debate...................

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct06

Wow. Trump is falling faster than Malaysia Airlines Flight 370:

Hillary has a 78.4% chance of winning as of 25 minutes ago.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Panther wrote on Oct 6^th, 2016 at 1:01pm:

https://i.imgsafe.org/164e640.gif  So, Marlaushka, regardless on how you vote (if you do, but good chance you won't).....because it's abundantly obvious it won't be one of those two......but, that said, it will be one of those two taking over for 4 year when Obama leaves his ghetto, which one do you 'feel' will be the one who will be the new "Head Whitey In Charge"?    https://i.imgsafe.org/164e640.gif Geez, that doesn't roll off the tongue as nicely as HNIC does.... https://i.imgsafe.org/19a04c7.gif

Exactly how much Adderall do you take before posting?

Marla wrote on Oct 7^th, 2016 at 1:29am:

Panther wrote on Oct 6th, 2016 at 1:01pm: https://i.imgsafe.org/164e640.gif  So, Marlaushka, regardless on how you vote (if you do, but good chance you won't).....because it's abundantly obvious it won't be one of those two......but, that said, it will be one of those two taking over for 4 year when Obama leaves his ghetto, which one do you 'feel' will be the one who will be the new "Head Whitey In Charge"?    https://i.imgsafe.org/164e640.gif Geez, that doesn't roll off the tongue as nicely as HNIC does.... https://i.imgsafe.org/19a04c7.gif Exactly how much Adderall do you take before posting?

It's not available here, but I'm sure that a good physician could find an equivalent.

So, none. https://i.imgsafe.org/5f6a4cf.gif

Now, that said.....back to you...who do you think.....???

HRC still strong with a 79.3 % chance of winning as of 2 hours ago:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Oh, dear. Where is Sprinty and his "the polls are rigged" rhetoric?

Panther wrote on Oct 3^rd, 2016 at 11:05pm:

AiA wrote on Oct 3rd, 2016 at 10:35pm: As of 7 minutes ago, Nate Silver gave Hillary a 67.7% chance of winning. Will the information coming out about Trump being a major tax cheat affect the polling this week? http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo Tax cheat? He would be a tax cheat only if he broke the law. From what I read it seems he used the tax laws to his advantage.....as is permitted within the law.....therefore he isn't a tax cheat, if anything it proves he's smart (or his accountants are smart, & he just knows how to hire the best accountants who are fluent in tax law....now that's smart). ;)

Any multi-millionaire who pays no tax for 2 decades is an oxygen thief. Make as many excuses as you like.

At the end of the day he wants to be president of a country he contributes nothing to.

It isn't a question of legality - The question may be will you vote for a low life parasite.

Dnarever wrote on Oct 8^th, 2016 at 7:45am:

Panther wrote on Oct 3rd, 2016 at 11:05pm: AiA wrote on Oct 3rd, 2016 at 10:35pm: As of 7 minutes ago, Nate Silver gave Hillary a 67.7% chance of winning. Will the information coming out about Trump being a major tax cheat affect the polling this week? http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo Tax cheat? He would be a tax cheat only if he broke the law. From what I read it seems he used the tax laws to his advantage.....as is permitted within the law.....therefore he isn't a tax cheat, if anything it proves he's smart (or his accountants are smart, & he just knows how to hire the best accountants who are fluent in tax law....now that's smart). ;) Any multi-millionaire who pays no tax for 2 decades is an oxygen thief. Make as many excuses as you like. At the end of the day he wants to be president of a country he contributes nothing to. It isn't a question of legality - The question may be will you vote for a low life parasite.

No need to make excuses when there's nothing to excuse.

I suggest you read the U.S. Tax Laws, called 'IRS Regulations' ..... like it was said before, Americans are acutely aware of their Tax Laws, & if his accountants followed some of those simple guidelines, & he had no "Federal Income" Tax liabilities for years, so be it. The Americans will nod & agree.....only the O.W.S. crowd (Marlushka & frens) will spit bullets in their class envy/warfare tirades.

Trump has paid, as was also posted earlier, he's paid plenty of State & Local taxes, Tax Systems with very little, if any, deductions available like the Federal System does, & so has his many thousands of employees & other bottom feeders (not meant in a derogatory way) the progressive left seem to forget he is responsible for in giving them an income to pay taxes from.......something called jobs. Trump employs thousands upon thousands in his many successful enterprises (directly or indirectly).

This tax thing is not going to bother those that will be voting for him, & probably more than 50% of those that won't.......Americans......Americans who are educated in their own system, & understand what deductions against income are all about.......99% of all Americans that actually pay Federal Taxes are in the know, the rest probably are dumb as sh!t, & pay many taxes they could probably avoid through legitimate deductions.

Maybe some Australians here can't comprehend these higher forms of tax information as I do, not because they are ignorant, far from it, but because we don't have a system that permits writing off losses to the extent as the US Tax Law does, so have never had any need or experience in the related issue, or use thereof. ;)

the bottom is falling out for Trump:  HRC now has a 81.2% chance of winning.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Panther wrote on Oct 8^th, 2016 at 9:08am:

Dnarever wrote on Oct 8th, 2016 at 7:45am: Panther wrote on Oct 3rd, 2016 at 11:05pm: AiA wrote on Oct 3rd, 2016 at 10:35pm: As of 7 minutes ago, Nate Silver gave Hillary a 67.7% chance of winning. Will the information coming out about Trump being a major tax cheat affect the polling this week? http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo Tax cheat? He would be a tax cheat only if he broke the law. From what I read it seems he used the tax laws to his advantage.....as is permitted within the law.....therefore he isn't a tax cheat, if anything it proves he's smart (or his accountants are smart, & he just knows how to hire the best accountants who are fluent in tax law....now that's smart). ;) Any multi-millionaire who pays no tax for 2 decades is an oxygen thief. Make as many excuses as you like. At the end of the day he wants to be president of a country he contributes nothing to. It isn't a question of legality - The question may be will you vote for a low life parasite. No need to make excuses when there's nothing to excuse. I suggest you read the U.S. Tax Laws, called 'IRS Regulations' ..... like it was said before, Americans are acutely aware of their Tax Laws, & if his accountants followed some of those simple guidelines, & he had no "Federal Income" Tax liabilities for years, so be it. The Americans will nod & agree.....only the O.W.S. crowd (Marlushka & frens) will spit bullets in their class envy/warfare tirades. Trump has paid, as was also posted earlier, he's paid plenty of State & Local taxes, Tax Systems with very little, if any, deductions available like the Federal System does, & so has his many thousands of employees & other bottom feeders (not meant in a derogatory way) the progressive left seem to forget he is responsible for in giving them an income to pay taxes from.......something called jobs. Trump employs thousands upon thousands in his many successful enterprises (directly or indirectly). This tax thing is not going to bother those that will be voting for him, & probably more than 50% of those that won't.......Americans......Americans who are educated in their own system, & understand what deductions against income are all about.......99% of all Americans that actually pay Federal Taxes are in the know, the rest probably are dumb as sh!t, & pay many taxes they could probably avoid through legitimate deductions. Maybe some Australians here can't comprehend these higher forms of tax information as I do, not because they are ignorant, far from it, but because we don't have a system that permits writing off losses to the extent as the US Tax Law does, so have never had any need or experience in the related issue, or use thereof. ;)

All you have repeatedly said is that it is perfectly legal for rich people to pay no tax, nobody has questioned that. Just that people may not want a President who refuses to pay any tax.

The Land of the free has just had its first Black president who has done a wonderful job, like all of them it could have been more but the odds are always against that happening.

This election will also produce a first that the US may or may not be ready for.

Will we get the First female President ?

Or

Will we get the first Orange President ?

Dnarever wrote on Oct 9^th, 2016 at 2:01pm:

Panther wrote on Oct 8th, 2016 at 9:08am: Dnarever wrote on Oct 8th, 2016 at 7:45am: Panther wrote on Oct 3rd, 2016 at 11:05pm: AiA wrote on Oct 3rd, 2016 at 10:35pm: As of 7 minutes ago, Nate Silver gave Hillary a 67.7% chance of winning. Will the information coming out about Trump being a major tax cheat affect the polling this week? http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo Tax cheat? He would be a tax cheat only if he broke the law. From what I read it seems he used the tax laws to his advantage.....as is permitted within the law.....therefore he isn't a tax cheat, if anything it proves he's smart (or his accountants are smart, & he just knows how to hire the best accountants who are fluent in tax law....now that's smart). ;) Any multi-millionaire who pays no tax for 2 decades is an oxygen thief. Make as many excuses as you like. At the end of the day he wants to be president of a country he contributes nothing to. It isn't a question of legality - The question may be will you vote for a low life parasite. No need to make excuses when there's nothing to excuse. I suggest you read the U.S. Tax Laws, called 'IRS Regulations' ..... like it was said before, Americans are acutely aware of their Tax Laws, & if his accountants followed some of those simple guidelines, & he had no "Federal Income" Tax liabilities for years, so be it. The Americans will nod & agree.....only the O.W.S. crowd (Marlushka & frens) will spit bullets in their class envy/warfare tirades. Trump has paid, as was also posted earlier, he's paid plenty of State & Local taxes, Tax Systems with very little, if any, deductions available like the Federal System does, & so has his many thousands of employees & other bottom feeders (not meant in a derogatory way) the progressive left seem to forget he is responsible for in giving them an income to pay taxes from.......something called jobs. Trump employs thousands upon thousands in his many successful enterprises (directly or indirectly). This tax thing is not going to bother those that will be voting for him, & probably more than 50% of those that won't.......Americans......Americans who are educated in their own system, & understand what deductions against income are all about.......99% of all Americans that actually pay Federal Taxes are in the know, the rest probably are dumb as sh!t, & pay many taxes they could probably avoid through legitimate deductions. Maybe some Australians here can't comprehend these higher forms of tax information as I do, not because they are ignorant, far from it, but because we don't have a system that permits writing off losses to the extent as the US Tax Law does, so have never had any need or experience in the related issue, or use thereof. ;) All you have repeatedly said is that it is perfectly legal for rich people to pay no tax, nobody has questioned that. Just that people may not want a President who refuses to pay any tax.

Fair enough, that's your point of view.....And you are perfectly within your rights to cling to it, but unlike here in Australia, the American Electorate, those who actually vote, they aren't as class envious as you may think, & this Federal Income Tax matter won't be the deal breaker at the ballot box.....

Now, that said, if it was proven that Trump actually broke the rules in doing what he needed to do to avoid paying his taxes, then he'd be "deader than Kelsey's Nuts", the American Electorate wouldn't never accept that, & I would then fully agree with you.  http://www.onesmiley.netne.net/smileys/cheerskj4.gif

Dnarever wrote on Oct 9^th, 2016 at 2:04pm:

The Land of the free has just had its first Black president who has done a wonderful job, like all of them it could have been more but the odds are always against that happening.

As often happens in the American system, the voters opted for a democrat President and a repug congress. Traditionally this has been an opportunity for constructive negotiations and compromise to meet the needs of each sides opposing agenda. However in this case, and most analysts have noted this, the repug dominated congress sought to do nothing but obstruct and thwart the President's agenda. That was their intent from the start.

Its a miracle and a testament to Obama's administration that he was able to get anything done at all.

polite_gandalf wrote on Oct 9^th, 2016 at 5:39pm:

Dnarever wrote on Oct 9th, 2016 at 2:04pm: The Land of the free has just had its first Black president who has done a wonderful job, like all of them it could have been more but the odds are always against that happening. As often happens in the American system, the voters opted for a democrat President and a repug congress. Traditionally this has been an opportunity for constructive negotiations and compromise to meet the needs of each sides opposing agenda. However in this case, and most analysts have noted this, the repug dominated congress sought to do nothing but obstruct and thwart the President's agenda. That was their intent from the start. Its a miracle and a testament to Obama's administration that he was able to get anything done at all.

Obama's democrats had a majority of both the House of Representatives & the Senate for most of his first term if memory serves me well, which over the course of modern American history wasn't so bad in comparison with previous Presidents (see below).

A key to his Presidential success would have been if Obama, rather than being the divisive President he has been, if he were a unifying President, as he promised the American people he would be prior to both of his elections.

Ronald Reagan had it much, much worse than Obama

Reagan had both Houses of Congress either politically opposed or divided for 8 years out of 8, yet he was able to effectively work with Congress because he was known as the "Great Communicator" ..... he was able to unite opposing sides to get things accomplished......something Obama didn't have a clue on, or flatly refused to do. Obama was more concerned about his golf handicap than National Security, & the U.S. Economy.  ::)   

https://cdn.pximg.xyz/8bfe89a5884df6951a940365a0b78429.png

Too early to see if the 2nd debate has an effect on polls but HRC stands at an 82.3% chance of winning.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Sure, Trump came out swinging hard but did it actually help him? From what I have been reading the answer is "NO."

45 minutes ago genius statistician Nate Silver gave HRC an 82.9% chance of winning.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo


Is the campaign over?

AiA wrote on Oct 11^th, 2016 at 10:21pm:

45 minutes ago genius statistician Nate Silver gave HRC an 82.9% chance of winning. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo Is the campaign over?

Not yet, but at the end of the day we're all winners.

Yes, leftards, the winner here is democracy.

AiA wrote on Oct 11^th, 2016 at 10:21pm:

45 minutes ago genius statistician Nate Silver gave HRC an 82.9% chance of winning. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo Is the campaign over?

That figure is incorrect.

She has 100% chance of winning.

If any of you gutless little rightard pussies think I'm wrong (come on, I've never been wrong before), why not make a little bet with me then?

Any takers, pussies?

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 12^th, 2016 at 12:07am:

AiA wrote on Oct 11th, 2016 at 10:21pm: 45 minutes ago genius statistician Nate Silver gave HRC an 82.9% chance of winning. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo Is the campaign over? That figure is incorrect. She has 100% chance of winning. If any of you gutless little rightard pussies think I'm wrong (come on, I've never been wrong before), why not make a little bet with me then? Any takers, pussies?

while I would hate to see Trump win, HRC only has a 100% chance of winning until the election is officially over. Donald will be a sore loser. He will challenge the results. He will probably even incite violence over his loss.

HRC has an 83.5% chance of winning. It would take divine intervention for Trump to win ...


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

AiA wrote on Oct 12^th, 2016 at 12:49am:

Donald will be a sore loser. He will challenge the results. He will probably even incite violence over his loss.

Yep.

Exactly what I've been saying.

Violence? - for sure.

AiA wrote on Oct 12^th, 2016 at 12:49am:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 12th, 2016 at 12:07am: AiA wrote on Oct 11th, 2016 at 10:21pm: 45 minutes ago genius statistician Nate Silver gave HRC an 82.9% chance of winning. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo Is the campaign over? That figure is incorrect. She has 100% chance of winning. If any of you gutless little rightard pussies think I'm wrong (come on, I've never been wrong before), why not make a little bet with me then? Any takers, pussies? while I would hate to see Trump win, HRC only has a 100% chance of winning until the election is officially over. Donald will be a sore loser. He will challenge the results. He will probably even incite violence over his loss.

Exactly. We'd better vote for him.

Or else.

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 12^th, 2016 at 10:31am:

AiA wrote on Oct 12th, 2016 at 12:49am: Donald will be a sore loser. He will challenge the results. He will probably even incite violence over his loss. Yep. Exactly what I've been saying. Violence? - for sure.

Al Gore could have contested the 2000 election results - and possibly been right. But he didn't. Trump will probably lose by a wide margin, will stir things up further by saying "the system is rigged" and Trump TV will have a ready-made audience.

AiA wrote on Oct 12^th, 2016 at 11:19am:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 12th, 2016 at 10:31am: AiA wrote on Oct 12th, 2016 at 12:49am: Donald will be a sore loser. He will challenge the results. He will probably even incite violence over his loss. Yep. Exactly what I've been saying. Violence? - for sure. Trump will probably lose by a wide margin, will stir things up further by saying "the system is rigged" and Trump TV will have a ready-made audience.

Agreed, 100%.

Hillary will have a comfortable win, and he'll have a little huuuge tanty.

After he loses, I fully expect him to announce to the world that he has instructed his lawyers to work around the clock in order to prove that the election was rigged.

I bet his legal team are all out shopping for new houses as we speak type.

HRC has an 86.5% of winning. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Hello TrumpTV! Will Alex Jones by Trump's sidekick?

HRC's chance of winning according to genius statistician keeps rising ever so slightly:  86.9%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

AiA wrote on Oct 13^th, 2016 at 10:42pm:

HRC's chance of winning according to genius statistician keeps rising ever so slightly:  86.9% http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

That will be great, Hillary will get us in a war with Russia over Syria. Putin is already getting his people ready to survive our attacks. That will bring about the dreams of George Soros and George H W Bush for a New World Order.

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

The U.S. and Russia are a lot closer to war in Syria than the mainstream media (MSM) would like you to think. One top U.S general said that war would be “extremely lethal and fast” and he said it was “almost guaranteed.”  Russia threatened to “shoot down U.S. aircraft over Syria.  Meanwhile, Secretary of State John Kerry has broken off all diplomatic relations with Russia in Syria.

http://usawatchdog.com/weekly-news-wrap-up-10-7-16-greg-hunter/

Mortdooley wrote on Oct 13^th, 2016 at 11:15pm:

AiA wrote on Oct 13th, 2016 at 10:42pm: HRC's chance of winning according to genius statistician keeps rising ever so slightly:  86.9% http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo That will be great, Hillary will get us in a war with Russia over Syria. Putin is already getting his people ready to survive our attacks. That will bring about the dreams of George Soros and George H W Bush for a New World Order. By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com The U.S. and Russia are a lot closer to war in Syria than the mainstream media (MSM) would like you to think. One top U.S general said that war would be “extremely lethal and fast” and he said it was “almost guaranteed.”  Russia threatened to “shoot down U.S. aircraft over Syria.  Meanwhile, Secretary of State John Kerry has broken off all diplomatic relations with Russia in Syria. http://usawatchdog.com/weekly-news-wrap-up-10-7-16-greg-hunter/

people who claim to know what will happen in the future are either unaware, deluded or liars.

Mortdooley wrote on Oct 13^th, 2016 at 11:15pm:

AiA wrote on Oct 13th, 2016 at 10:42pm: HRC's chance of winning according to genius statistician keeps rising ever so slightly:  86.9% http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo That will be great, Hillary will get us in a war with Russia over Syria. Putin is already getting his people ready to survive our attacks. That will bring about the dreams of George Soros and George H W Bush for a New World Order. By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com The U.S. and Russia are a lot closer to war in Syria than the mainstream media (MSM) would like you to think. One top U.S general said that war would be “extremely lethal and fast” and he said it was “almost guaranteed.”  Russia threatened to “shoot down U.S. aircraft over Syria.  Meanwhile, Secretary of State John Kerry has broken off all diplomatic relations with Russia in Syria. http://usawatchdog.com/weekly-news-wrap-up-10-7-16-greg-hunter/

Yes. MSM is not mentioning anything about whats really going on in Syria. Just sterilized sound bites. Russia is a formidable enemy - not to be trifled with.

The American liberal MSM is just a bad joke - so anti Trump. The only support he gets is from Julian Assange, Lou Dobbs and Hannity. In fact Assange is doing what the MSM supposed to be doing - informing the public with the truth. Many commentators like for example Anderson Cooper are CIA.
CNN and MNSBC have invested heavily in the Clinton Foundation - just propaganda merchants posing as news networks. 

Anderson Cooper is CIA?  ;D

AiA wrote on Oct 13^th, 2016 at 11:34pm:

Mortdooley wrote on Oct 13th, 2016 at 11:15pm: AiA wrote on Oct 13th, 2016 at 10:42pm: HRC's chance of winning according to genius statistician keeps rising ever so slightly:  86.9% http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo That will be great, Hillary will get us in a war with Russia over Syria. Putin is already getting his people ready to survive our attacks. That will bring about the dreams of George Soros and George H W Bush for a New World Order. By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com The U.S. and Russia are a lot closer to war in Syria than the mainstream media (MSM) would like you to think. One top U.S general said that war would be “extremely lethal and fast” and he said it was “almost guaranteed.”  Russia threatened to “shoot down U.S. aircraft over Syria.  Meanwhile, Secretary of State John Kerry has broken off all diplomatic relations with Russia in Syria. http://usawatchdog.com/weekly-news-wrap-up-10-7-16-greg-hunter/ people who claim to know what will happen in the future are either unaware, deluded or liars.

How much food do you have in your home genius?

Mortdooley wrote on Oct 14^th, 2016 at 12:10am:

AiA wrote on Oct 13th, 2016 at 11:34pm: Mortdooley wrote on Oct 13th, 2016 at 11:15pm: AiA wrote on Oct 13th, 2016 at 10:42pm: HRC's chance of winning according to genius statistician keeps rising ever so slightly:  86.9% http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo That will be great, Hillary will get us in a war with Russia over Syria. Putin is already getting his people ready to survive our attacks. That will bring about the dreams of George Soros and George H W Bush for a New World Order. By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com The U.S. and Russia are a lot closer to war in Syria than the mainstream media (MSM) would like you to think. One top U.S general said that war would be “extremely lethal and fast” and he said it was “almost guaranteed.”  Russia threatened to “shoot down U.S. aircraft over Syria.  Meanwhile, Secretary of State John Kerry has broken off all diplomatic relations with Russia in Syria. http://usawatchdog.com/weekly-news-wrap-up-10-7-16-greg-hunter/ people who claim to know what will happen in the future are either unaware, deluded or liars. How much food do you have in your home genius?

you can foretell the future, can you, Mortie?

I've read history and the Hillary path will be a disaster.

Another plus of a Trump victory is people like you will lose your minds.

As polls show that Donald Trump would overwhelmingly win if only men were allowed to vote, the GOP nominee's supporters have spawned a new Twitter hashtag: #repealthe19th.

That’s a reference to the 19th Amendment, which gave women the right to vote.

The Twitter commentary began after Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight published an article Tuesday looking at men’s and women’s voting patterns.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuhVsdGVMAAwyJQ.jpg


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuhV43eUsAEdxkX.jpg


Maine only has 4 electoral votes? No wonder that state sucks.

Mortdooley wrote on Oct 14^th, 2016 at 12:33am:

I've read history and the Hillary path will be a disaster. Another plus of a Trump victory is people like you will lose your minds.

Trump will probably lose and if he does he will probably come out ahead:  by all accounts, TrumpTV is in the works and media personalities like Alex Jones, Sean Hannity and Ann Coulter will have a place to call home - and a ready-made audience, an audience made up of people like you, Mortie.

Marla wrote on Oct 14^th, 2016 at 1:38am:

As polls show that Donald Trump would overwhelmingly win if only men were allowed to vote, the GOP nominee's supporters have spawned a new Twitter hashtag: #repealthe19th. That’s a reference to the 19th Amendment, which gave women the right to vote. The Twitter commentary began after Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight published an article Tuesday looking at men’s and women’s voting patterns. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuhVsdGVMAAwyJQ.jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuhV43eUsAEdxkX.jpg Maine only has 4 electoral votes? No wonder that state sucks.

The Founding Fathers must have had a reason to limit voting to white, male property-owners of a certain age :)

AiA wrote on Oct 14^th, 2016 at 1:41am:

Mortdooley wrote on Oct 14th, 2016 at 12:33am: I've read history and the Hillary path will be a disaster. Another plus of a Trump victory is people like you will lose your minds. Trump will probably lose and if he does he will probably come out ahead:  by all accounts, TrumpTV is in the works and media personalities like Alex Jones, Sean Hannity and Ann Coulter will have a place to call home - and a ready-made audience, an audience made up of people like you, Mortie.

If Hillary wins we all lose and we now know the MSM is a really bad total joke.

AiA wrote on Oct 14^th, 2016 at 1:43am:

Marla wrote on Oct 14th, 2016 at 1:38am: As polls show that Donald Trump would overwhelmingly win if only men were allowed to vote, the GOP nominee's supporters have spawned a new Twitter hashtag: #repealthe19th. That’s a reference to the 19th Amendment, which gave women the right to vote. The Twitter commentary began after Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight published an article Tuesday looking at men’s and women’s voting patterns. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuhVsdGVMAAwyJQ.jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuhV43eUsAEdxkX.jpg Maine only has 4 electoral votes? No wonder that state sucks. The Founding Fathers must have had a reason to limit voting to white, male property-owners of a certain age :)

Maybe they believed that people who had shown responsible choices in life would be responsible voters! It is not right to have my vote cancelled by some welfare queen or any member of the free sh1t army.

Mortdooley wrote on Oct 14^th, 2016 at 12:33am:

I've read history and the Hillary path will be a disaster.

There are still books in Texuus?

Mortdooley wrote on Oct 14^th, 2016 at 2:02am:

Maybe they believed that people who had shown responsible choices in life would be responsible voters! It is not right to have my vote cancelled by some welfare queen or any member of the free sh1t army.

https://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/68326163.jpg

And yet Texunns wonder why the rest of the country hates them so much. Tell me, what do Texuuns contribute to American society beside the increasing obesity rate?

I guess you got me there. I have noticed that the harder I worked and the smarter I saved the more white privilege I enjoyed.
There is no giant invisible hand holding you down, it's the attitude you adopted to blame others for your own shortcomings. You're the only one I have ever encountered with this massive hate for the great state of Texas and I have traveled most of the North American continent! Hate only hurts the hater so get some help before you lose it entirely.

"A federal judge in New York has ordered counsel for Donald Trump and the disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein to appear in court along with the attorney for a woman referred to only as “Jane Doe” who alleges the Republican presidential nominee raped her when she was 13."

"The order raises the extraordinary prospect, were Trump to win the 8 November battle for the White House, of counsel for a US president-elect being called into federal court in proceedings relating to allegations of rape of an underage girl."

Trump lawyers given court date over lawsuit alleging rape of 13-year-old

Mortdooley wrote on Oct 14^th, 2016 at 5:08am:

You're the only one I have ever encountered with this massive hate for the great state of Texas and I have traveled most of the North American continent!

You've never been outside your trailer park.

Quote:

Thursday, October 13, 2016 The full results from Sunday night’s debate are in, and Donald Trump has come from behind to take the lead over Hillary Clinton. The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 41%. Yesterday, Clinton still held a four-point 43% to 39% lead over Trump, but  that was down from five points on Tuesday and her biggest lead ever of seven points on Monday. Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters. Monday’s survey was the first following the release of an 11-year-old video showing Trump discussing women in graphic sexual detail but did not include any polling results taken after the debate. All three nights of the latest survey follow Sunday’s debate. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has dropped slightly to six percent (6%) support, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein holds steady at two percent (2%). Four percent (4%) still like some other candidate in the race, and another four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) Eighty-four percent (84%) now say they are certain how they will vote in this year’s presidential election, and among these voters, Trump posts a 49% to 46% lead over Clinton. Among voters who say they still could change their minds between now and Election Day, it’s Clinton 40%, Trump 37%, Johnson 19% and Stein four percent (4%). (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 10-12, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. [Rasmussen Reports analysts Amy Holmes  and Fran Coombs are available for interested media. Please call 73 2-776-9777 ext. 205 for interviews.] Most Republican voters still think top GOP leaders are hurting the party with their continuing criticism of Trump and are only slightly more convinced that those leaders want Trump to be president. Trump has 75% support among Republicans, nearly identical to Clinton’s 76% backing among Democrats. He has 15% of the Democratic vote; she picks up 13% GOP support. Trump holds a double-digit advantage among voters not affiliated with either major political party. Johnson gets 13% of the unaffiliated vote, but like Stein is in low single digits among Democrats and Republicans. Clinton continues to lead among women, while Trump has regained his advantage among men. Those under 40 still prefer the Democrat but also remain the most undecided. Older voters favor Trump. The older the voter, the more likely he or she is to be certain of their vote. Trump remains ahead among whites and has a slight lead among other minority voters. He appears to be making a dent in the black vote, but blacks still overwhelmingly favor Clinton. Ninety  (90%) of voters who Strongly Approve of the job President Obama is doing choose Clinton. Among voters who Strongly Disapprove of the president’s job performance, 89% prefer Trump. Hillary Clinton jumped on the release last week of an 11-year-old video in which Trump makes graphic sexual comments to say it shows her Republican rival's demeaning attitude toward women. But Trump countered that Clinton was an enabler who allowed her husband, former President Bill Clinton, to sexually assault women for years. We’ll tell you what voters think at 10:30 a.m. Eastern today. Nearly two-out-of-three voters believe the economy is unfair to the middle class. Voters are even more likely than they’ve been in the past to say they’ll wait until Election Day to cast their vote. Only 24%, however, say they’ve ever changed the way they were going to vote after watching the debates between presidential candidates.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct13

Marla wrote on Oct 14^th, 2016 at 9:27am:

Mortdooley wrote on Oct 14th, 2016 at 5:08am:   You're the only one I have ever encountered with this massive hate for the great state of Texas and I have traveled most of the North American continent! You've never been outside your trailer park.

The voices in your head are getting louder, aren't they?

HRC still surging with an 84.4% chance of winning.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

http://i64.tinypic.com/2qcf6gl.jpg

Mortdooley wrote on Oct 14^th, 2016 at 8:46pm:

The voices in your head are getting louder, aren't they?

Whatever you want to believe, Texuun.

Look how "rigged" the system is:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Poor, pathetic, cry baby Trump

Here's a new one
http://images.dailykos.com/images/307181/story_image/GettyImages-611274248.jpg

HRC 85.8% chance of winning.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

I suspect Trump will have a smallish comeback between now and Election Day.

Marla wrote on Oct 15^th, 2016 at 1:14am:

http://i64.tinypic.com/2qcf6gl.jpg

What a pathetic piece of poo this man pig is.

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 16^th, 2016 at 1:48am:

Marla wrote on Oct 15th, 2016 at 1:14am: http://i64.tinypic.com/2qcf6gl.jpg What a pathetic piece of poo this man pig is.

10 minutes to 2 O'Clock in the morning and you're still here spouting cr@p, I'd say that statement applies to you haemorrhoid more than Trump.  ;D ;D

I think he's monitoring your bedtime, Greggery.

Don't tell Mum, Matty. We'll let you stay up tonight if you want.

Fuzzball wrote on Oct 16^th, 2016 at 8:30am:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 16th, 2016 at 1:48am: Marla wrote on Oct 15th, 2016 at 1:14am: http://i64.tinypic.com/2qcf6gl.jpg What a pathetic piece of poo this man pig is. 10 minutes to 2 O'Clock in the morning and you're still here spouting cr@p, I'd say that statement applies to you haemorrhoid more than Trump.  ;D ;D

Not sure who taught you to tell the time, old boy.

Your own post clearly shows that it was 11:48pm.

"greggerypeccary wrote Yesterday at 11:48pm:"

I never miss my midnight curfew.

Trump will win it.

Wikileaks–Hillary to Goldman Sachs: Americans Who Want to Limit Immigration Are ‘Fundamentally UnAmerican’

Hillary is the American suicide.

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 16^th, 2016 at 12:45pm:

Fuzzball wrote on Oct 16th, 2016 at 8:30am: greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 16th, 2016 at 1:48am: Marla wrote on Oct 15th, 2016 at 1:14am: http://i64.tinypic.com/2qcf6gl.jpg What a pathetic piece of poo this man pig is. 10 minutes to 2 O'Clock in the morning and you're still here spouting cr@p, I'd say that statement applies to you haemorrhoid more than Trump.  ;D ;D Not sure who taught you to tell the time, old boy. Your own post clearly shows that it was 11:48pm. "greggerypeccary wrote Yesterday at 11:48pm:" I never miss my midnight curfew.

summer time gweggy summer time....



are the Americans seriously going to vote for either of these ...........I want to call them criminals..

they both are so close to the line.....

Trump is a perv who cant keep his hands to himself.. and now Hillary is a druggie...OMG.....

the rest of the world must be rubbing their hands with glee...


America ... what are you thinking?..

HRC has dipped a bit but still commanding at 85.1% chance of winning.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

https://westernrifleshooters.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/trump-hillary-10-16-16.jpg

HRC has an 87.3% chance of winning as of one hour ago:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

47 minutes ago Nate Silver gave HRC an 88.4% chance of winning.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

11 minutes ago Nate Silver gave HRC an 87.9% chance of winning.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Clinton has a big lead which makes forecasting more accurate now.

Frank wrote on Oct 16^th, 2016 at 8:43pm:

Trump will win it. Wikileaks–Hillary to Goldman Sachs: Americans Who Want to Limit Immigration Are ‘Fundamentally UnAmerican’ Hillary is the American suicide.

yes, she is a disaster

Sprintcyclist wrote on Oct 18^th, 2016 at 11:21pm:

Frank wrote on Oct 16th, 2016 at 8:43pm: Trump will win it. Wikileaks–Hillary to Goldman Sachs: Americans Who Want to Limit Immigration Are ‘Fundamentally UnAmerican’ Hillary is the American suicide. yes, she is a disaster

Is there something you don't understand about numbers? HRC is currently leading by a large margin.

Sprintcyclist wrote on Oct 18^th, 2016 at 11:21pm:

Frank wrote on Oct 16th, 2016 at 8:43pm: Trump will win it. Wikileaks–Hillary to Goldman Sachs: Americans Who Want to Limit Immigration Are ‘Fundamentally UnAmerican’ Hillary is the American suicide. yes, she is a disaster

What shall we do with her, Sprint?

AiA wrote on Oct 18^th, 2016 at 11:54pm:

Sprintcyclist wrote on Oct 18th, 2016 at 11:21pm: Frank wrote on Oct 16th, 2016 at 8:43pm: Trump will win it. Wikileaks–Hillary to Goldman Sachs: Americans Who Want to Limit Immigration Are ‘Fundamentally UnAmerican’ Hillary is the American suicide. yes, she is a disaster Is there something you don't understand about numbers? HRC is currently leading by a large margin.

Not for long, A. As soon as the Amerikan people finally wake up and understand how great Trump's policies are, the numbers will change for sure, you'll see.

If Sprint can just get enough of these articles posted before erection day, Trump's in with a good chance.

Karnal wrote on Oct 19^th, 2016 at 12:17am:

AiA wrote on Oct 18th, 2016 at 11:54pm: Sprintcyclist wrote on Oct 18th, 2016 at 11:21pm: Frank wrote on Oct 16th, 2016 at 8:43pm: Trump will win it. Wikileaks–Hillary to Goldman Sachs: Americans Who Want to Limit Immigration Are ‘Fundamentally UnAmerican’ Hillary is the American suicide. yes, she is a disaster Is there something you don't understand about numbers? HRC is currently leading by a large margin. Not for long, A. As soon as the Amerikan people finally wake up and understand how great Trump's policies are, the numbers will change for sure, you'll see. If Sprint can just get enough of these articles posted before erection day, Trump's in with a good chance.

Sprint can't get an erection.

Nate Silver will be giving his first update for the day in North America soon. 9 hours ago HRC was at 87.4% chance of winning.

HRC has an 87.2% chance of winning as of right now:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Nobody ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the American public.

Donald Trump is in contention until the last vote is counted.

The actual quote:

"No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.” H L Mencken.

Unforgiven wrote on Oct 19^th, 2016 at 10:57pm:

Donald Trump is in contention until the last vote is counted.

Yes, that is why I prefer Nate Silver's statistics rather than the simplistic, "Trump will win" or "Hillary will win" nonsense. Nobody really knows.

https://westernrifleshooters.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/tumblr_oeyxao8vvd1qb6lo6o1_500.jpg

This is no longer a joke.

  This US Election I mean.

The Creep is speaking like your absolute  'classic' fascist ..
In fact it is far more serious than I originally thought.

  The Creep's speeches and crowd-stirring rhetoric represents a real danger to the stability of the US. Even though he won't win, he has created 'the perfect storm', and losing, he is willing to try and take down the whole structure of US society. By whipping up hysteria about conspiracy, and a rigged election, he is feeding the flame in a very unhealthy aspect of the psyche of the US population.

He is saying that he will devastate the framework of US culture, and he has basically demanded Armageddon ,.. should he lose.


He talked about THIS being the last Election. !!

This is incredibly BAD.
He HATES all people, have NO DOUBT about that.

He IS a genuine PSYCHOPATH.. he doesn't really care about what he is doing to his country... he is reaching the pinnacle of POWER, and control over those around him.  THAT is ALL he cares about, and he will say anything to gain that glorious reward. Nothing else matters.

He has successfully polarised various 'groups' who are part of the US 'family' into believing him, and , no matter who wins the Election,  THE CREEP will have succeeded, anyway he can.

ANYTHING may happen ...........but one thing is certain, the United States of America will  NEVER be the same again.

87.6% chance of winning for HRC. The only good news I hear for Trump comes from his supporters. He has to win the debate tonight ... bigly.

Sprintcyclist wrote on Oct 18^th, 2016 at 11:21pm:

Yes, she is a disaster

https://image.spreadshirtmedia.com/image-server/v1/designs/1004599101,width=178,height=178/check-your-privilege-black.png

It would interesting to see what Trump could do- but is it worth the risk?

8 hours ago HRC was coming in strong with an 87.3% chance of winning.  The next week should be interesting.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Elections are supposed to get closer as Election Day nears, not further apart, which is what is happening now.

The future seems to be set. Clinton will win, and the Creep will spit the dummy. He virtually conceded defeat in the Debate, but also said he wouldn't agree to accept the peoples vote. Kept on spinning his BS .. he is a zero IMO.

He is trying to remain in the public eye by being the worst candidate in US political history.

I maintain what I said at the start of the year - Donald Trump will be the next president.

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 6:51am:

I maintain what I said at the start of the year - Donald Trump will be the next president.

why are you so determined to shoot down what little credibility you may have left?

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 6:51am:

I maintain what I said at the start of the year - Donald Trump will be the next president.

Good for you boges. I'm glad you haven't resorted to the 'of course he'll lose cause its a conspiracyyyyy' that Trump himself seems to be angling towards.

John Smith wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 7:21am:

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 21st, 2016 at 6:51am: I maintain what I said at the start of the year - Donald Trump will be the next president. why are you so determined to shoot down what little credibility you may have left?

maybe "next president" is bogarde code for 'president-in-waiting' before the illigitimate Hillary is removed.

polite_gandalf wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 10:09am:

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 21st, 2016 at 6:51am: I maintain what I said at the start of the year - Donald Trump will be the next president. Good for you boges. I'm glad you haven't resorted to the 'of course he'll lose cause its a conspiracyyyyy' that Trump himself seems to be angling towards.

I've said for a while it would be close, maybe like 2000. But it could be a Reagan-Carter.

And who was the dolt who questioned my credibility? My credibility on this, as on everything, is beyond beautiful.

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 11:43am:

My credibility on this, as on everything, is beyond beautiful.

Somehow I don't think you will be able to continue this claim on November 9 and thereafter  ;)

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 6:51am:

I maintain what I said at the start of the year - Donald Trump will be the next president.

Tell your dentist to stop using gas, Bogie.

It's affecting your brain.

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 6:51am:

I maintain what I said at the start of the year - Donald Trump will be the next president.

Oh Bogey. I don't think even Trump believes that.

Can't win, won't win.

Agnes wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 1:45pm:

Can't win, won't win.

They said that about Bush and he was voted in twice

Baron, how many republican party heavyweights publicly abandoned and attacked Bush - and even officially disendorsed him during those two election? Any?

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 6:51am:

I maintain what I said at the start of the year - Donald Trump will be the next president.

Here we go, Greggery - Bogie's got his finger on the pulse.

Will you be taking up Greggery's challenge, Bogie?

Remember - no socks.

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 6:51am:

I maintain what I said at the start of the year - Donald Trump will be the next president.

Here we go, Greggery - Bogie's got his finger on the pulse.

Will you be taking up Greggery's challenge, Bogie?

Remember - no socks.

polite_gandalf wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 3:22pm:

Baron, how many republican party heavyweights publicly abandoned and attacked Bush - and even officially disendorsed him during those two election? Any?

Let's not give Baron any clues, G.

Baron?

Karnal wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 7:26pm:

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 21st, 2016 at 6:51am: I maintain what I said at the start of the year - Donald Trump will be the next president. Here we go, Greggery - Bogie's got his finger on the pulse. Will you be taking up Greggery's challenge, Bogie? Remember - no socks.

He won't be taking me up on my challenge.

Not a single one of them has the guts.

They all know there's more chance of Pauline Hanson getting a PhD than there is of Donald - accused of raping a child - Trump becoming POTUS.

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 7:29pm:

Karnal wrote on Oct 21st, 2016 at 7:26pm: bogarde73 wrote on Oct 21st, 2016 at 6:51am: I maintain what I said at the start of the year - Donald Trump will be the next president. Here we go, Greggery - Bogie's got his finger on the pulse. Will you be taking up Greggery's challenge, Bogie? Remember - no socks. He won't be taking me up on my challenge. Not a single one of them has the guts. They all know there's more chance of Pauline Hanson getting a PhD than there is of Donald - accused of raping a child - Trump becoming POTUS.

Well, you know what I think of your child rape allegation, Greggerypeckery. Trump won't make president for a host of other reasons too numerous to mention. Ee-gad, he's now getting booed at his own fundraising dinners.

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 6:51am:

I maintain what I said at the start of the year - Donald Trump will be the next president.

Your bowling club must be desperate.

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2016 at 7:54pm:

bogarde73 wrote on Oct 21st, 2016 at 6:51am: I maintain what I said at the start of the year - Donald Trump will be the next president. Your bowling club must be desperate.

Come come, I doubt Bogie's Bavarian bowling club would elect Trump. Trump might be a good Aryan, but he goes for their wives' pussies.

Trump might be elligible to run for Grand Wizard in the KKK. David Duke seems to like him. Bogie's Nazi Party lost its steam in the early 90s. Otherwise, Trump could go for that.

SUNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls 'bunk'

Stony Brook, N.Y. — A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year's election and he's critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.

Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent.

Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island.

That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.

Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are "bunk."

The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don't reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They're about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can't tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts.

"It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty," he says. "So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through."

Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates' performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail.

Running the model on earlier campaigns comes up with the correct outcome for every race since 1912, except the 1960 election.

Norpoth wrote on his site that Trump's victories in early primary states are key predictors of his chances in November. The cycle also favors the GOP after two terms of a Democrat in the White House.

"So hold off on trusting poll-driven proclamations of a Clinton victory just yet," Norpoth wrote in The Hill. "Voters have a way of always getting the last word."

http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/helmut_norpoth_donald_trump_victory.html

More on the model:
http://primarymodel.com/2016-forecast-full/

Who Will Win the Presidency?

The USA will not have its first Orange President.

Frank wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2016 at 6:26am:

SUNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls 'bunk' Stony Brook, N.Y. — A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year's election and he's critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece. Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent. Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island. That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail. Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are "bunk." The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don't reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They're about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can't tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts. "It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty," he says. "So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through." Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates' performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail. Running the model on earlier campaigns comes up with the correct outcome for every race since 1912, except the 1960 election. Norpoth wrote on his site that Trump's victories in early primary states are key predictors of his chances in November. The cycle also favors the GOP after two terms of a Democrat in the White House. "So hold off on trusting poll-driven proclamations of a Clinton victory just yet," Norpoth wrote in The Hill. "Voters have a way of always getting the last word." http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/helmut_norpoth_donald_trump_victory.html More on the model: http://primarymodel.com/2016-forecast-full/

Pundits made the mistake of predicting a close race in 2012 - against the better wisdom of the polls. In the end, surprise surprise, the polls turned out to be correct after all.

Two confounding things about the American election, one as always, it depends on who has the supporters motivated enough to get out out of bed and vote, and secondly particular to this election, people in the privacy of a booth may vote different to what they say publicly, an American Brexit.

Frank wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2016 at 6:26am:

SUNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls 'bunk' Stony Brook, N.Y. — A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year's election and he's critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece. Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent. Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island. That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail. Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are "bunk." The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don't reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They're about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can't tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts. "It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty," he says. "So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through." Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates' performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail. Running the model on earlier campaigns comes up with the correct outcome for every race since 1912, except the 1960 election. Norpoth wrote on his site that Trump's victories in early primary states are key predictors of his chances in November. The cycle also favors the GOP after two terms of a Democrat in the White House. "So hold off on trusting poll-driven proclamations of a Clinton victory just yet," Norpoth wrote in The Hill. "Voters have a way of always getting the last word." http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/helmut_norpoth_donald_trump_victory.html More on the model: http://primarymodel.com/2016-forecast-full/

Uncanny. Professor Soren Sorenson from the University of Bslogney said exactly the same thing.

Not your Alma Mater by any chance, is it, Frank?

polite_gandalf wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2016 at 8:39am:

Frank wrote on Oct 22nd, 2016 at 6:26am: SUNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls 'bunk' Stony Brook, N.Y. — A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year's election and he's critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece. Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent. Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island. That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail. Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are "bunk." The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don't reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They're about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can't tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts. "It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty," he says. "So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through." Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates' performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail. Running the model on earlier campaigns comes up with the correct outcome for every race since 1912, except the 1960 election. Norpoth wrote on his site that Trump's victories in early primary states are key predictors of his chances in November. The cycle also favors the GOP after two terms of a Democrat in the White House. "So hold off on trusting poll-driven proclamations of a Clinton victory just yet," Norpoth wrote in The Hill. "Voters have a way of always getting the last word." http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/helmut_norpoth_donald_trump_victory.html More on the model: http://primarymodel.com/2016-forecast-full/ Pundits made the mistake of predicting a close race in 2012 - against the better wisdom of the polls. In the end, surprise surprise, the polls turned out to be correct after all.

Yes, but who would have voted for a Mormon? Seriously.

This time, we have a born-again Christian who writes self-help books.

There's got to be some margin of error for a candidate like that, shurely.

Hillary as prez will be the beginning of the end of the US.

She will be illegitimate from 9 November. She has been illegitimate for decades.


Hillary's [presidency will bring to the fore the deep schasm of American politics. There will be attempts to secede from the Union, there will be deep and bitter divisions.

You cannot impose all the progressive shite on an unwilling electorate - see Trump, Wilders, Le Pen, Orban, Abbott, Hanson, AfD, etc, etc.  There is no repressing of the popular will. You cannot badger people. The people are sovereign - not the Guardian, CNN, Fairfax and the rest.

A Clinton presidency will be the end of polite politics. She is no blackie nor a Muslims like O'bama. She is as privileged and implicated as it is possible to be.
She is Bill's wife who has put up with Bill only on the understanding that she, the real presidential candidate of the two, will be one day supported for the presidency.


America is digging it's grave if it elects her. She is the embodiment of all the bizarre-o contradictions of right-on America.

I think it will be an American Brexit, I still hope.

Frank wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2016 at 6:55pm:

Hillary as prez will be the beginning of the end of the US. She will be illegitimate from 9 November. She has been illegitimate for decades.

Is that because the majority of people will have voted for her, Frank?

HRC has a 6 or 7-point lead and things can go wrong — including somewhat inaccurate polling — and she can still win.

Frank wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2016 at 6:55pm:

She will be illegitimate from 9 November. She has been illegitimate for decades.

What does this sh!t even mean?

NorthOfNorth wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2016 at 7:40pm:

Frank wrote on Oct 22nd, 2016 at 6:55pm: She will be illegitimate from 9 November. She has been illegitimate for decades. What does this sh!t even mean?

It means the old boy's not a big fan of democracy. Who knows? Maybe he'd prefer a military coup.

In the fullness of time, of course.

AiA wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2016 at 7:26pm:

HRC has a 6 or 7-point lead and things can go wrong — including somewhat inaccurate polling — and she can still win.

She will win. The question now is what Trump plans to do. I'll make a prediction - if it doesn't happen I will leave this thread.

Trump will make noises about going into the media business. Trump will announce that he never really lost the presidency, he only ever wanted a network. This was his plan all along, and he's already got past quotes to back himself up.

Trump will announce a new multi-media platform to rival Fox News - a new far-right TV/internet platform to broadcast and showcase - what else? The voice of Trump.

Trump already has Roger Ailles in his tent (after Ailles was sacked from Fox for sexual harrassment, no less). Trump also has Breitbart's CEO on staff. He even has his own televangelist - a cute Southern belle. And Trump has the loudest commentator/entertainment reviewer right in the Trump Tower penthouse - himself.

Trump is teaching all his staff how to use a video camera. It's like the birth of Hollywood all over again in Trump headquarters, everyone talking about "the talent" and "the narrative" and "the brand" (all Trump). Trump is already playing his anti-media card. He's found his place as the victim of the Establishment; the voice of Amerika; those poor, downtrodden masses yearning to breathe free.

So Trump will take to the airwaves: his new venture. But here's my prediction: it will be a masive failure if it ever gets off the ground to begin with. Here's why.

1. Trump is stingy. He bargains for everything. He never pays for meals out, and like the Queen, he almost never puts his hand in his pocket. Media platforms need content, and this requires investment. Trump thinks he can just put his name to a media brand and people will engage. Alas, not even Trump can talk 24 hours a day, and no one would want to listen anyway.

2. Roger Ailles is yesterday's man. Fox has been slipping since Bush left the White House. He's getting old, and starting up a new project like this is probably beyond him.

3. Trump has failed at everything but property development. This is the family business. The casinos, the resorts, and even the golf courses - failed. And while the Apprentice initially had great ratings, it lost traction as reality TV went out of style. Trump, of course, was finally sacked by the network for his negotiating style.

So, Trump won't invest the money, he hasn't got the right people, and his track history in business is not good. Trump's biggest drawcard (for Trump) - the Trump brand, is a kitch relic from the 80s. Trump has all the style of the Russian Mafia - the crystal chandeliers, the gold plating, the phallic fountains. The Trump brand is about aspiration to tacky displays of excessive wealth - think Hillsong's properity doctrine without God, but Trump - it is hardly the stuff of working-class Amerika. The biggest buyers of Trump's ghost-written self-help books are immigrants, fantasising about the Amerikan dream. Or in Trump's case, nightmare.

Trump's media venture is doomed to fail before it begins. This is my prediction.

If my prediction fails, I will leave this thread.

And if Trump wins the presidency, I will leave the board. 

Karnal wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2016 at 9:23pm:

AiA wrote on Oct 22nd, 2016 at 7:26pm: HRC has a 6 or 7-point lead and things can go wrong — including somewhat inaccurate polling — and she can still win. She will win. The question now is what Trump plans to do. I'll make a prediction - if it doesn't happen I will leave this thread. Trump will make noises about going into the media business. Trump will announce that he never really lost the presidency, he only ever wanted a network. This was his plan all along, and he's already got past quotes to back himself up. Trump will announce a new multi-media platform to rival Fox News - a new far-right TV/internet platform to broadcast and showcase - what else? The voice of Trump. Trump already has Roger Ailles in his tent (after Ailles was sacked from Fox for sexual harrassment, no less). Trump also has Breitbart's CEO on staff. He even has his own televangelist - a cute Southern belle. And Trump has the loudest commentator/entertainment reviewer right in the Trump Tower penthouse - himself. Trump is teaching all his staff how to use a video camera. It's like the birth of Hollywood all over again in Trump headquarters, everyone talking about "the talent" and "the narrative" and "the brand" (all Trump). Trump is already playing his anti-media card. He's found his place as the victim of the Establishment; the voice of Amerika; those poor, downtrodden masses yearning to breathe free. So Trump will take to the airwaves: his new venture. But here's my prediction: it will be a masive failure if it ever gets off the ground to begin with. Here's why. 1. Trump is stingy. He bargains for everything. He never pays for meals out, and like the Queen, he almost never puts his hand in his pocket. Media platforms need content, and this requires investment. Trump thinks he can just put his name to a media brand and people will engage. Alas, not even Trump can talk 24 hours a day, and no one would want to listen anyway. 2. Roger Ailles is yesterday's man. Fox has been slipping since Bush left the White House. He's getting old, and starting up a new project like this is probably beyond him. 3. Trump has failed at everything but property development. This is the family business. The casinos, the resorts, and even the golf courses - failed. And while the Apprentice initially had great ratings, it lost traction as reality TV went out of style. Trump, of course, was finally sacked by the network for his negotiating style. So, Trump won't invest the money, he hasn't got the right people, and his track history in business is not good. Trump's biggest drawcard (for Trump) - the Trump brand, is a kitch relic from the 80s. Trump has all the style of the Russian Mafia - the crystal chandeliers, the gold plating, the phallic fountains. The Trump brand is about aspiration to tacky displays of excessive wealth - think Hillsong's properity doctrine without God, but Trump - it is hardly the stuff of working-class Amerika. The biggest buyers of Trump's ghost-written self-help books are immigrants, fantasising about the Amerikan dream. Or in Trump's case, nightmare. Trump's media venture is doomed to fail before it begins. This is my prediction. If my prediction fails, I will leave this thread. And if Trump wins the presidency, I will leave the board.

Well written!

I'd add another reason for failure...

He suffers from NPD so, when it comes to commitment to a cause, he is by nature (paradoxically) chronically incapable of the sustained focus and resolve it would take to cut into and sustain an enterprise on that scale.

Sure, he fashions an image (or sincerely attempts to) of a man with the supreme confidence to 'fake it till he makes it' (even when the stakes are as ridiculously high as faking ability to be a POTUS), but, as his run for President has proved in spades, he is light years from confident... His bluster and his blatant disregard for his innate incompetence highlights in Neon that he has made the time-worn mistake of assuming his blind arrogance can masquerade as confidence and that the world is as entirely deluded as he is.

Trump would quickly become bored with the running of a media organisation within a year, particularly when it becomes clear to him that the only thing that would (need to) be flowing like a river would be the sweat it takes to pull it off... While the 'wells of Narcissistic Supply' remain as dry as a nun's... nevermind.

I particularly liked this bit .... so true


Karnal wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2016 at 9:23pm:

Trump has all the style of the Russian Mafia - the crystal chandeliers, the gold plating, the phallic fountains.

;D ;D

Karnal wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2016 at 7:01pm:

Frank wrote on Oct 22nd, 2016 at 6:55pm: Hillary as prez will be the beginning of the end of the US. She will be illegitimate from 9 November. She has been illegitimate for decades. Is that because the majority of the {dead} people will have voted for her, Frank?

If it was good enough for Slick Willy & Barrack Hussein Obumma, it's good enough for his/their 'Krusty Ceee' Momma!     http://www.33sm.ml/smileys/lolfun.gif

This ad is getting good airplay in the USA....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAIqFZASEeo


This video is diametrically opposed to the false narrative she's trying to sell today......her blatant lies & contradictions flow so smoothly from her mouth.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0agBtEEYTaY


https://s9.postimg.org/ut8dpie8f/hillarylaunchbutton.png

Karnal wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2016 at 7:01pm:

Frank wrote on Oct 22nd, 2016 at 6:55pm: Hillary as prez will be the beginning of the end of the US. She will be illegitimate from 9 November. She has been illegitimate for decades. Is that because the majority of people will have voted for her, Frank?

If voting was compulsory in the US, then whoever wins would be legit. But with 60% turnout, you have to win big to be legit. Brexit, with 48-52 % was seen as a big win with 72% turnout.

In the US, 62.3% turned up to vote in 2008 and only 57.5 in 2012.


There is no energy behind Clinton. She stands for her personal entitlement, for identity politics ("I am a woman") and is seen by all as unreliable, lying and dishonest. 

Trump brings energy and a lot of the things that will motivate apathetic voters. People see through l the negative stuff and all the attempts to tarnish him. Hillary has actually stuffed up big time while in power.  Trump is just Trump, big mouth but not in power.

I do not know which way it will go, I am not someone who is immersed in American politics or knows the soul of America. Even if she wins, the stuff he has brought to the forefront of debate is being played out elsewhere in the world, especially in Europe and to some extent in Australia.

If Trump doesn't succeed now then the European Trumps will. It might not happen this year or the next, but the era of Merkel, Clinton, O'Bama, Hollande, Soros is over.

Clinton is the reactionary in this contest, she is the one clinging to the past. It's always like this - you don't know how the future ill pan out - Trump??? unbelievable like WWI was in May 2014- but you kinda know when the past is over. Clinton is the past in every way.  Electing Clinton is like re-electing Bill, electing to go back to the 90s.

That's a pretty f***d idea, don't you think?

Electoral map:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?

Unforgiven wrote on Oct 23^rd, 2016 at 3:20pm:

Electoral map: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?

If all this shite was to be believed, Hillary is more popular that Obama, Reagen and Bill Clinton put together!!!!   It's so hugely overstated and so obviously and stinkigly a spin that only people like you would take it without blinking!!!!

Frank wrote on Oct 23^rd, 2016 at 4:22pm:

Unforgiven wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 3:20pm: Electoral map: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/? If all this shite was to be believed, Hillary is more popular that Obama, Reagen and Bill Clinton put together!!!!   It's so hugely overstated and so obviously and stinkigly a spin that only people like you would take it without blinking!!!!

Wanna make a little wager on the outcome of the election?

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 23^rd, 2016 at 4:24pm:

Frank wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 4:22pm: Unforgiven wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 3:20pm: Electoral map: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/? If all this shite was to be believed, Hillary is more popular that Obama, Reagen and Bill Clinton put together!!!!   It's so hugely overstated and so obviously and stinkigly a spin that only people like you would take it without blinking!!!! Wanna make a little wager on the outcome of the election?

Remember your response to me when I offered you a wager on something?

Gordon wrote on Oct 23^rd, 2016 at 4:36pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 4:24pm: Frank wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 4:22pm: Unforgiven wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 3:20pm: Electoral map: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/? If all this shite was to be believed, Hillary is more popular that Obama, Reagen and Bill Clinton put together!!!!   It's so hugely overstated and so obviously and stinkigly a spin that only people like you would take it without blinking!!!! Wanna make a little wager on the outcome of the election? Remember your response to me when I offered you a wager on something?

Nope.

Refresh my memory, old boy.

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 23^rd, 2016 at 4:38pm:

Gordon wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 4:36pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 4:24pm: Frank wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 4:22pm: Unforgiven wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 3:20pm: Electoral map: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/? If all this shite was to be believed, Hillary is more popular that Obama, Reagen and Bill Clinton put together!!!!   It's so hugely overstated and so obviously and stinkigly a spin that only people like you would take it without blinking!!!! Wanna make a little wager on the outcome of the election? Remember your response to me when I offered you a wager on something? Nope. Refresh my memory, old boy.

That you never bet, or something to that effect.
I suspect I'm younger than you,  old boy :)

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 23^rd, 2016 at 4:24pm:

Frank wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 4:22pm: Unforgiven wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 3:20pm: Electoral map: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/? If all this shite was to be believed, Hillary is more popular that Obama, Reagen and Bill Clinton put together!!!!   It's so hugely overstated and so obviously and stinkigly a spin that only people like you would take it without blinking!!!! Wanna make a little wager on the outcome of the election?

Yeah, why not.

I bet you are a going to be an insufferable fracking pain in the arse either way.  $50.

Frank wrote on Oct 23^rd, 2016 at 4:47pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 4:24pm: Frank wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 4:22pm: Unforgiven wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 3:20pm: Electoral map: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/? If all this shite was to be believed, Hillary is more popular that Obama, Reagen and Bill Clinton put together!!!!   It's so hugely overstated and so obviously and stinkigly a spin that only people like you would take it without blinking!!!! Wanna make a little wager on the outcome of the election? Yeah, why not.

Trump wins, I leave this forum forever.

Hillary wins, you leave this forum forever.

No socks.

Agreed?

Gordon wrote on Oct 23^rd, 2016 at 4:45pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 4:38pm: Gordon wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 4:36pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 4:24pm: Frank wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 4:22pm: Unforgiven wrote on Oct 23rd, 2016 at 3:20pm: Electoral map: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/? If all this shite was to be believed, Hillary is more popular that Obama, Reagen and Bill Clinton put together!!!!   It's so hugely overstated and so obviously and stinkigly a spin that only people like you would take it without blinking!!!! Wanna make a little wager on the outcome of the election? Remember your response to me when I offered you a wager on something? Nope. Refresh my memory, old boy. That you never bet, or something to that effect. I suspect I'm younger than you,  old boy :)

I don't gamble with money.

If Trump wins, I leave this forum forever.

If Clinton wins, you leave this forum forever.

Are we on?

Yeah, I thought so.

http://gifsec.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Chicken-Dance-GIFS.gif

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 23^rd, 2016 at 5:01pm:

Yeah, I thought so. http://gifsec.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Chicken-Dance-GIFS.gif

I really have no idea of the outcome.  I only want Trump to win as I think it will have the effect of hitting the reset button on American politics which will be good long term.

I truly think Billary will be terrible.

Frank wrote on Oct 23^rd, 2016 at 2:45pm:

Karnal wrote on Oct 22nd, 2016 at 7:01pm: Frank wrote on Oct 22nd, 2016 at 6:55pm: Hillary as prez will be the beginning of the end of the US. She will be illegitimate from 9 November. She has been illegitimate for decades. Is that because the majority of people will have voted for her, Frank? If voting was compulsory in the US, then whoever wins would be legit. But with 60% turnout, you have to win big to be legit. Brexit, with 48-52 % was seen as a big win with 72% turnout. In the US, 62.3% turned up to vote in 2008 and only 57.5 in 2012. There is no energy behind Clinton. She stands for her personal entitlement, for identity politics ("I am a woman") and is seen by all as unreliable, lying and dishonest.  Trump brings energy and a lot of the things that will motivate apathetic voters. People see through l the negative stuff and all the attempts to tarnish him. Hillary has actually stuffed up big time while in power.  Trump is just Trump, big mouth but not in power. I do not know which way it will go, I am not someone who is immersed in American politics or knows the soul of America. Even if she wins, the stuff he has brought to the forefront of debate is being played out elsewhere in the world, especially in Europe and to some extent in Australia. If Trump doesn't succeed now then the European Trumps will. It might not happen this year or the next, but the era of Merkel, Clinton, O'Bama, Hollande, Soros is over. Clinton is the reactionary in this contest, she is the one clinging to the past. It's always like this - you don't know how the future ill pan out - Trump??? unbelievable like WWI was in May 2014- but you kinda know when the past is over. Clinton is the past in every way.  Electing Clinton is like re-electing Bill, electing to go back to the 90s. That's a pretty f***d idea, don't you think?

The late 90s were the most prosperous and transformational time in the US's post-Vietnam era, but Hillary is no Bill Clinton.

She is instinctually far more conservative than her husband. She was a Republica when she met him. She's gone left to get the Sanders crowd. The old Fox News Hillary-haters have no idea - they just don't like universal health care and women in suits - and women in politics.

But Hillary is in now to save the furniture. The biggest crack in US hegemony has just come out of the Philippines, who have announced their new alignment with China and Russia. Other South East Asian and Middle Eastern countries will follow. Duterte's announcement is a geopolitical game-changer.

If you think Trump has any capacity to deal with the shift of military and economic power to China, you're having a laugh. In fact, you would never make such a ludicrous suggestion, even for an old boy.

Alas, I do think Clinton has the ability to manage this shift in power. She knows how the game works. Trump managed the Miss Universe Pageant and is already threatening China with all sorts of insane schemes. If elected, all Trump could do is throw temper tantrums. Xiping and Putin would love having Trump to laugh at. They are already doing just that - Putin especially.

Thanks for pointing out that US presidents are not popularly erected, old boy. You could have brought this up when you were trying to export the US model to Iraq, but you probably didn't know any of this until Bogie's mystery anti-Hillary articles enlightened you.

Chin up. You'll still be able to watch Trump on the tele.