As discussed last Friday, several notable surprises in the proposed GOP tax bill involved real estate, and would have an explicit - and adverse - impact on not only proprietors' tax bills, but also on future real estate values if the republican tax bill is passed . . .

What is more interesting, however, is a detailed analysis looking at who would be most affected by Trump's real estate tax changes. Here, an interest pattern emerges, courtesy of Barclays.

According to CoreLogic, the median home price in the US is around $224K while the average property tax paid by homeowners in the country is around $3,300. This suggests that only a minority of homeowners are likely to be affected by the proposed mortgage interest and property tax deduction caps. Indeed, according to preliminary analysis by the NAHB, only about 7mn homes will be affected by the $500K mortgage interest deduction, and since these homeowners will receive the grandfathering benefit, they will not experience any immediate increase in taxes as a result of the mortgage interest deduction cap.


As expected, the homeowners who will be most negatively affected by the proposed caps primarily reside along the coasts, particularly in California. Using estimated median home prices provided by the NAR, Barclays found that of the 20 counties in the country with the highest median home prices, eight were located in California (Figure 3). Perhaps not surprisingly, a majority of voters in all 20 counties voted for Clinton in last year’s presidential election

. . . .And while we now know who will be largely impacted, there is a broader implication: not only will these pro-Clinton counties pay more in taxes, it is there that real estate values will tumbles the most

. . . .And that's how Trump is about to punish the "bicoastals" for voting against him: by sending their real estate values tumbling as much as 11%, while serving them with a higher tax bill to boot

(But you really have to read it all - :zerohedge)