Retail and car sales hit the wall in sign of economy slowdown

5 February 2019
Sydney Morning Herald


Retail and car sales have hit a wall with new figures showing consumers shut their wallets through the key December shopping period.   :(

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported retail sales in December were down by 0.4 per cent on the previous month.

While overall spending on food was up for the month, there was a sharp 2.8 per cent retreat in the household goods area while clothing and footwear edged down by 2.4 per cent.


Shoppers did not go shopping in December, with new figures showing a 0.4 per cent drop in retail activity.

The biggest decline was recorded in NSW with sales there falling by 0.6 per cent. It was the third time in the past four months that the nation's biggest retail market recorded a 0.6 per cent drop.


Department store sales fell by 1.1 per cent while the broad "other retailing" sector dropped by 0.1 per cent.

Sales also dropped in Victoria, by 0.5 per cent, Queensland (0.1 per cent), the ACT (1.8 per cent), South Australia (0.3 per cent), Tasmania (0.2 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.3 per cent).   :(

The only increase was in WA and even that was a small 0.1 per cent improvement.

Analysts had been prepared for a weak December after anecdotal evidence pointed to consumers winding back their spending plans from late November.

Not only were sales down but the volume of goods sold were well short of expectations. Through the December quarter, retail volumes rose by 0.1 per cent, pointing to a weak contribution from households in the looming national accounts.

Separate figures from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries also point to the sharp slowdown in the economy.   :(

Almost 82,000 cars were sold in January, a 7.4 per cent drop on the same month last year.

Over the past six months, sales have edged down by 7 per cent compared to the same six month period in 2017.

Chamber chief executive officer Tony Weber said the drop in sales was largely due to ebbing consumer confidence.

"The current economic environment is a challenging one, with an imminent federal election, a declining real estate market and tighter lending practices," he said.

The Australian Industry Group's performance of services index, released early on Monday, showed a 7.8 point drop in January. It fell to its lowest level since October 2014 and is now well down on the point at which the sector is expanding.

The Reserve Bank, which is meeting on Tuesday, is expected to leave official interest rates on hold.

They always cite ebbing/declining consumer confidence

Why don't they just admit people have less money?  Is it because they'd then have to discuss why people have less money?  And would that lead to what appears a continual flow of imported labour which means less Aussies have work? 

Ah well, end of model runouts have started. ;)

why does it feel like they r picking in this Report.... they use figures from last month on some parts and how they compared to last year on others...….Was December less sales than last December last year and where car sales better than last month ? ;)

DonDeeHippy wrote on Feb 5^th, 2019 at 3:04pm:

Was December less sales than last December last year and where car sales better than last month ?

"Australian new car sales fell sharply in December compared to the same month a year earlier."

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-new-car-sales-are-tanking-2019-1

Because new cars are pieces of cap.  Simple really.

Just wait for those two nongs Shorty and Bowen to start stuffing with the economy.

Recession here we come.  :(

The conservatives have been stuffing the economy for years, and the denying of climate change has lead to a uncertain energy market, and the mismanagement of the environment is directly down to the LNP.

Shorty and Bowen are not in government and your blaming them for a slowing economy Nemo...because you have a been in your bonnet about the franking credits where people get a tax return when they haven't paid tax. 

Franking credits, negative gearing, unions running amok ... all that is going to hit the economy, mark my words.

I hope Bowen has his "recession we had to have" speech ready.  >:(

Captain Nemo wrote on Feb 5^th, 2019 at 5:25pm:

Franking credits, negative gearing, unions running amok ... all that is going to hit the economy, mark my words. I hope Bowen has his "recession we had to have" speech ready.  >:(

 
;D ;D YOU DILL ... The Australian Banking Association is a farging Union ..... and they have been running amok for years.

You actually wouldn't have a clue except to bag workers Unions .... when the biggest thugs running amok & not paying their share are Unions of Employers ..... i.e big business & it's associations ....

they are Unions too dopey.

All of our cars are over priced ....

far too much import duty & stamp duty adding to over inflated cost.

Now that there are no cars made in Australia all cars should be free of those duties and only GST should apply.

Pedro Curevo wrote on Feb 5^th, 2019 at 5:23pm:

The conservatives have been stuffing the economy for years, and the denying of climate change has lead to a uncertain energy market, and the mismanagement of the environment is directly down to the LNP.

What is the climate supposed to change into?

In 2015 CSIRO and BoM released a technical report based on climate projections. (Moise et al)

          Table 1. Projected average number of hot days (Tmax >35°C)
         for Broome, with 10th and 90th percentile values shown in brackets
                (CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, 2015)

                                    2030                        2090                   2090                   2090
                                   RCP4.5                 RCP2.6               RCP4.5               RCP8.5
Broome                 87 (72-111)          95 (70-154)      133 (94-204)        231 (173-282)      

The temperature records for Broome are publicly available through the Bureau of Meteorology website. The highest 20-year centred average number of hot days recorded for Broome since 1910 is 63.9 for the years 1944-1963 (centred on 1954) and the annual hot day totals have fluctuated from a high of 90 in 1945 to a low of 20 in 2000. In the most recent year, 2018, there was a total of 55 hot days for Broome, which coincidently happens to be midway between these two extremes."

Dr B Basil Beamish

So there is plenty of variation before ClimateChange/AGW.  We only have to wait 11 years to see if it changes dramatically. And that is only at RCP 4.5 not the most touted RCP 8.5 often mistakenly called Business as usual model.

Gnads wrote on Feb 5^th, 2019 at 5:56pm:

. The Australian Banking Association is a farging Union ....

More like a cartel. ;)

lee wrote on Feb 5^th, 2019 at 6:40pm:

Gnads wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 5:56pm: . The Australian Banking Association is a farging Union .... More like a cartel. ;)

A cartel that controls the union of what we know as "the federal government".

Who are the countries world wide in debt too?


I laugh at people who go off about workers unions. Totally blind to all other unions......because they have a different name.  ;D

Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 5^th, 2019 at 7:35pm:

Who are the countries world wide in debt too?

Too hard for you?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

Retail sales down as pay packets outpaced by living costs 
5 February 2019
ACTU

Working people’s pay packets aren’t covering increases in key living costs, and retailers are copping the consequences.   :(

That’s the lesson to be taken from new figures released by the ABS today which show a 0.4 percent contraction in retail sales figures for December 2018.

Five years of near-record low wage growth means that working people aren’t spending money in their communities and small and medium business owners are worse off as a result.

After five years of the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison Government people are carrying more debt, they have less in savings and the most families are stretched paying the bills.

We need to change the rules so working people can negotiate fair pay rises that stay ahead of living costs on an even playing field with big business.



Quotes attributable to ACTU Secretary Sally McManus:

“These latest figures prove that Australia needs a pay rise.

“Working people are not get getting the fair pay rises we need to stay ahead of key living costs like electricity, housing, gas and fuel. People are eating into their savings to cover their basic living costs.

“As a result, people don’t have the money left over to spend on anything extra. If we had fair pay rises that money would have been spent in local shops, department stores and shopping centres.

“One thing is for sure – if we do not improve working people’s rights Australians will not get the pay rises we need.”

"What is the climate supposed to change into?

In 2015 CSIRO and BoM released a technical report based on climate projections. (Moise et al)

          Table 1. Projected average number of hot days (Tmax >35°C)
         for Broome, with 10th and 90th percentile values shown in brackets
                (CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, 2015)

                                    2030                        2090                   2090                   2090
                                   RCP4.5                 RCP2.6               RCP4.5               RCP8.5
Broome                 87 (72-111)          95 (70-154)      133 (94-204)        231 (173-282)      

The temperature records for Broome are publicly available through the Bureau of Meteorology website. The highest 20-year centred average number of hot days recorded for Broome since 1910 is 63.9 for the years 1944-1963 (centred on 1954) and the annual hot day totals have fluctuated from a high of 90 in 1945 to a low of 20 in 2000. In the most recent year, 2018, there was a total of 55 hot days for Broome, which coincidently happens to be midway between these two extremes."

Dr B Basil Beamish

So there is plenty of variation before ClimateChange/AGW.  We only have to wait 11 years to see if it changes dramatically. And that is only at RCP 4.5 not the most touted RCP 8.5 often mistakenly called Business as usual model."

Mixing local weather events with climate change is not how it works as climate scientist will agree ... such data is used by skeptics to throw a red herring at what most people actually are aware of its the climate that's changing, weather is variable, as can be seen with overall record temps which is getting warmer.

In Australia its currently record drought, record floods, record weather extremes...we don't have to wait 11 years to see that is happening just so that the coal industry can maintain its profits, (which is the primary objective of coalition skeptics),... climate change is most evident now and the planet is fast running out of time to avert deadly and disastrous climate change , the human race cannot afford to wait another 11 years twiddling thumbs over the issue.

lee wrote on Feb 5^th, 2019 at 7:48pm:

Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:35pm: Who are the countries world wide in debt too? Too hard for you? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

Enlighten us then.

Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 5^th, 2019 at 7:35pm:

lee wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 6:40pm: Gnads wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 5:56pm: . The Australian Banking Association is a farging Union .... More like a cartel. ;) A cartel that controls the union of what we know as "the federal government". Who are the countries world wide in debt too? I laugh at people who go off about workers unions. Totally blind to all other unions......because they have a different name.  ;D

Exactly.

Come on down to Scomo's Used Policy Emporium where the best deals can be had for a song and dance at a banking royal commission.... nobody refused credit for getting away with wrongdoing.... our policies are checked by qualified experts in every field before being presented for sale.... come in and grab your bargain now...  but wait..... we've got more!  Every policy sold today comes complete with a collector's item set of framed photographs of past Liberal Prime Ministers.. think of the hours of fun at your local club using the dart board... or you could simply hoard them with your family silver, and pass them on the your descendants... Come One.. Come All... Big Scottie is just waiting to sign you up......

Captain Nemo wrote on Feb 5^th, 2019 at 5:09pm:

Just wait for those two nongs Shorty and Bowen to start stuffing with the economy. Recession here we come.  :(

Too late - been with us for many years now, just well hidden and undeclared.... ask anyone out there looking for a job if there is a recession on...

Gnads wrote on Feb 5^th, 2019 at 5:59pm:

All of our cars are over priced .... far too much import duty & stamp duty adding to over inflated cost. Now that there are no cars made in Australia all cars should be free of those duties and only GST should apply.

Ah - so there ARE tariffs in place....... oh, well, something has to balance the de facto tariffs in place in low wage countries... not to mention the Chinese direct tariff of 15% on imports... it seems that those who run the poorest nations and one of the richest can make their own rules ...... the rest just sign free trade agreements and sell off the farm and furniture.....

We need a local manufacturer....

Pedro Curevo wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 5:39am:

Mixing local weather events with climate change is not how it works as climate scientist will agree ...

And yet that is precisely what Moise et al 2015 did, as reported by BoM and CSIRO. That is the use of the RCP's, it is models. The attendant number of hot days. The RCP's are solely to do with climate change.

Moise et al 2015 says, according to RCP4.5,  by 2030 that days/year that exceed 35C will rise to an average of 87 from 56. That's an average over 20 years of an increase of 31days/year.

The data they used is ACORN-SAT at BoM. You can download the data for Broome from there. January 1 2011 to December 31 2018. Then tell us the current state of play and how many days /year  it will have to rise over the next 11 years to get to an average of 87 days/year for the 20 year period..


Pedro Curevo wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 5:39am:

In Australia its currently record drought, record floods, record weather extremes...we don't have to wait 11 years to see that is happening just so that the coal industry can maintain its profits, (which is the primary objective of coalition skeptics),.

Now all you have to do is link the climate change to CO2, not using models.


Pedro Curevo wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 5:39am:

climate change is most evident now and the planet is fast running out of time to avert deadly and disastrous climate change , the human race cannot afford to wait another 11 years twiddling thumbs over the issue.

So perhaps you can tell us with great certainty when climate didn't change? What is the "normal" temperature of the earth?

crocodile wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 6:12am:

lee wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:48pm: Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:35pm: Who are the countries world wide in debt too? Too hard for you? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt Enlighten us then.

You did note "too"? Meaning also; not "to" meaning to whom is it owed?

lee wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 1:03pm:

crocodile wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 6:12am: lee wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:48pm: Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:35pm: Who are the countries world wide in debt too? Too hard for you? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt Enlighten us then. You did note "too"? Meaning also; not "to" meaning to whom is it owed?

Jeezuz. Get a life ya freak. I wasn't being nasty towards you.
I have no problem admitting I am semi illiterate.  But tbh that is my phones auto correct due to a slip of the finger. 
Can you admit you pick on people with a disorder? Maybe you believe you're better than someone with a disorder.


Oh....to make it easier for you....
When a government issues a bond, where does the money come from?

Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 7^th, 2019 at 8:21am:

lee wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 1:03pm: crocodile wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 6:12am: lee wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:48pm: Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:35pm: Who are the countries world wide in debt too? Too hard for you? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt Enlighten us then. You did note "too"? Meaning also; not "to" meaning to whom is it owed? Jeezuz. Get a life ya freak. I wasn't being nasty towards you. I have no problem admitting I am semi illiterate.  But tbh that is my phones auto correct due to a slip of the finger.  Can you admit you pick on people with a disorder? Maybe you believe you're better than someone with a disorder. Oh....to make it easier for you.... When a government issues a bond, where does the money come from?

Ain't no money - it's a promise against future money...... buy now, let me  invest in the nation, and one day you'll get it back with interest.  Sort of like shareholding only with a government guarantee... oh ... wait a minute... governments bend over backwards to protect industry and shareholders, offering countless concessions for investing in the future of the nation and even bail outs of failing businesses etc...

Hardly applicable to a 'global economy'.

Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 7^th, 2019 at 8:21am:

lee wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 1:03pm: crocodile wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 6:12am: lee wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:48pm: Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:35pm: Who are the countries world wide in debt too? Too hard for you? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt Enlighten us then. You did note "too"? Meaning also; not "to" meaning to whom is it owed? Jeezuz. Get a life ya freak. I wasn't being nasty towards you. I have no problem admitting I am semi illiterate.  But tbh that is my phones auto correct due to a slip of the finger.  Can you admit you pick on people with a disorder? Maybe you believe you're better than someone with a disorder. Oh....to make it easier for you.... When a government issues a bond, where does the money come from?

The purchaser of the bond has their account debited. Doesn't mean that folding green stuff changes hands.

lee wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 1:03pm:

crocodile wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 6:12am: lee wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:48pm: Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:35pm: Who are the countries world wide in debt too? Too hard for you? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt Enlighten us then. You did note "too"? Meaning also; not "to" meaning to whom is it owed?

I was asking for enlightenment rather than a spelling lesson that I don't need. Is there any real point in highlighting gross debt obligations of the world's nations.

Grappler Truth Teller Feller wrote on Feb 7^th, 2019 at 8:54am:

Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 7th, 2019 at 8:21am: lee wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 1:03pm: crocodile wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 6:12am: lee wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:48pm: Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:35pm: Who are the countries world wide in debt too? Too hard for you? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt Enlighten us then. You did note "too"? Meaning also; not "to" meaning to whom is it owed? Jeezuz. Get a life ya freak. I wasn't being nasty towards you. I have no problem admitting I am semi illiterate.  But tbh that is my phones auto correct due to a slip of the finger.  Can you admit you pick on people with a disorder? Maybe you believe you're better than someone with a disorder. Oh....to make it easier for you.... When a government issues a bond, where does the money come from? Ain't no money - it's a promise against future money...... buy now, let me  invest in the nation, and one day you'll get it back with interest.  Sort of like shareholding only with a government guarantee... oh ... wait a minute... governments bend over backwards to protect industry and shareholders, offering countless concessions for investing in the future of the nation and even bail outs of failing businesses etc... Hardly applicable to a 'global economy'.

What a load of waffle.

crocodile wrote on Feb 7^th, 2019 at 9:25am:

Grappler Truth Teller Feller wrote on Feb 7th, 2019 at 8:54am: Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 7th, 2019 at 8:21am: lee wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 1:03pm: crocodile wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 6:12am: lee wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:48pm: Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:35pm: Who are the countries world wide in debt too? Too hard for you? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt Enlighten us then. You did note "too"? Meaning also; not "to" meaning to whom is it owed? Jeezuz. Get a life ya freak. I wasn't being nasty towards you. I have no problem admitting I am semi illiterate.  But tbh that is my phones auto correct due to a slip of the finger.  Can you admit you pick on people with a disorder? Maybe you believe you're better than someone with a disorder. Oh....to make it easier for you.... When a government issues a bond, where does the money come from? Ain't no money - it's a promise against future money...... buy now, let me  invest in the nation, and one day you'll get it back with interest.  Sort of like shareholding only with a government guarantee... oh ... wait a minute... governments bend over backwards to protect industry and shareholders, offering countless concessions for investing in the future of the nation and even bail outs of failing businesses etc... Hardly applicable to a 'global economy'. What a load of waffle.

What a clear outlining of the reality of a government bond.    ;D  ;D  ;D  ;D  ;D

Grappler Truth Teller Feller wrote on Feb 7^th, 2019 at 10:52am:

crocodile wrote on Feb 7th, 2019 at 9:25am: Grappler Truth Teller Feller wrote on Feb 7th, 2019 at 8:54am: Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 7th, 2019 at 8:21am: lee wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 1:03pm: crocodile wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 6:12am: lee wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:48pm: Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 5th, 2019 at 7:35pm: Who are the countries world wide in debt too? Too hard for you? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt Enlighten us then. You did note "too"? Meaning also; not "to" meaning to whom is it owed? Jeezuz. Get a life ya freak. I wasn't being nasty towards you. I have no problem admitting I am semi illiterate.  But tbh that is my phones auto correct due to a slip of the finger.  Can you admit you pick on people with a disorder? Maybe you believe you're better than someone with a disorder. Oh....to make it easier for you.... When a government issues a bond, where does the money come from? Ain't no money - it's a promise against future money...... buy now, let me  invest in the nation, and one day you'll get it back with interest.  Sort of like shareholding only with a government guarantee... oh ... wait a minute... governments bend over backwards to protect industry and shareholders, offering countless concessions for investing in the future of the nation and even bail outs of failing businesses etc... Hardly applicable to a 'global economy'. What a load of waffle. What a clear outlining of the reality of a government bond.    ;D  ;D  ;D  ;D  ;D

Fiction

Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 7^th, 2019 at 8:21am:

Can you admit you pick on people with a disorder? Maybe you believe you're better than someone with a disorder.

Not at all. I just accepted the statement as written. Where exactly did I pick on YOU?