The noose is slowly tightening around the climate deniers necks ! Extreme weather events are becoming much more regular around the globe and the one in a hundred year floods in the north are becoming one in 20 year events !


Quote:

Australia swelters through its hottest month on record, with January mean temperature exceeding 30C It's official: January 2019 was Australia's hottest-ever month on record going all the way back to 1910, according to the monthly climate review released by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). It followed the hottest December on record for Australia — and there is no relief in sight for the months ahead. January was a truly record-breaking month across several fronts: the highest minimum, the highest maximum and the highest mean temperatures for Australia as a whole. The highest overnight minimum on record was broken multiple times with Wanaaring (Barrona Downs) in NSW currently holding the title at 36.6 degrees Celsius. The mean temperature for January averaged across the country exceeded 30C — the first time this had occurred in any month, the BOM said. The report also highlighted record long runs of consecutive hot days: Birdsville (Qld) had 10 consecutive days over 45C Alice Springs airport (NT) had 16 days in a row above 42C Cloncurry (Qld) had 43 consecutive days over 40C — a state record for Queensland Camooweal (Qld) had 40 consecutive days over 40C Walungurru (NT) had 27 consecutive days above 40C Bourke airport (NSW) had 21 consecutive days above 40C — a state record for New South Wales Rainfall was also below average for most areas but a monsoon trough brought some significant totals to northern Queensland late in the month. Here is how the different states felt the heat South Australia experienced its driest January since 2013. And Adelaide had one of the city's hottest Januaries on record, with maximum temperatures the highest for at least 10 years. For the first time since 1957, the BOM's Adelaide city site recorded zero rainfall for the month. Western Australia had one of its hottest Januaries on record, but temperatures were cooler than average in parts of the west coast and south-west. Rainfall for the state was below average and the month was the driest since 2005. While most of WA was suffering in the heat, Perth recorded its coolest January in more than a decade and rainfall was about average. New South Wales recorded its hottest January on record for mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures. The north-east of the state also experienced one of its driest Januaries on record. Sydney had one of its warmest Januaries on record, with average rainfall. Victoria also set a new record for January heat. Its rainfall was below average, with most of the state receiving less than 20 per cent of the month's average. Melbourne was exceptionally warm, with some sites recording their highest ever January temperatures. The city also had one of the 10 driest Januaries on record. The ACT also had its hottest January ever. The BOM's Canberra airport site had a record run of four days above 40C. The Northern Territory recorded its hottest January and the delayed onset of the monsoon contributed to the Territory receiving less than half its average January rainfall. Darwin had one of its warmest Januaries on record while rainfall was also below average. Queensland similarly had its hottest January and a monsoon low brought heavy rainfall to parts of the state. Brisbane was very warm, while rainfall was very low at about 20 per cent of the January average. Tasmania had its hottest and driest January on record, as did Hobart. Why so hot? The predicted El Nino did not eventuate this summer but even without the climate driver we usually associate with hot conditions the temperatures soared. BOM senior climatologist Andrew Watkins said there were a few factors at play in the unprecedented heat. "We saw heatwave conditions affect large parts of the country through most of the month, with records broken for both duration and also individual daily extremes," Dr Watkins said. "The main contributor to this heat was a persistent high-pressure system in the Tasman sea which was blocking any cold fronts and cooler air from impacting the south of the country. "The warming trend, which has seen Australian temperatures increase by more than one degree in the last 100 years, also contributed to the unusually warm conditions."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-01/australian-weather-hottest-month-on-record-in-january/10769392

Quote:

What have the impacts been? The stand-out events this month were the record-breaking heatwaves over the south-east of Australia. Andrew Gissing, of catastrophe modelling provider Risk Frontiers, said there were anecdotal reports of businesses suffering from blackouts leading to financial loss. He said there were also reports of agricultural production being affected. "Things like on really hot days milk production goes down because the cows suffer from heat stress as well," he said. "We are seeing reports from the viticulture industry too about grapes being sunburned and shrivelling." Then there are the human impacts. So far it has been too soon to say how the heatwaves have affected people's health. But Risk Frontiers' research has shown that historically heatwaves are Australia's biggest killer in terms of natural hazards. "In fact they are bigger than the sum total of all other fatalities from natural hazards put together," he said. It is the elderly, those with chronic health conditions and the very young who are most at risk. Is there an end in sight? No, there is not. The outlook for the next three months suggests temperatures are very likely to be warmer than average for the majority of Australia. The country will likely be drier than average, particularly in the west, and low to near-median stream flows are expected.

Sure was sweltering, Tasmania is looking good these days.

All the way back to 1910? Didn't we have a climate before that?

But I looked at the Broome data from 2011 to 2018 because of that BoM CSIRO report that said based on RCP4.5 Broome would have over 82 days/year over 35C.

To date the annual average (2011-2018) over 35C is 68. Meaning in the next 12 years they have to average 91days/year over 35C. Models - you gotta love them.

And that's only RCP4.5 not RCP8.5 the alarmists love to cite as "Business-As-Usual".

lee wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 3:05pm:

Models - you gotta love them.

I do, excellent (but not perfect) at predictions.

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 3:06pm:

I do, excellent (but not perfect) at predictions.

So which climate model is excellent? An average of climate models is junk.

lee wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 3:08pm:

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 3:06pm: I do, excellent (but not perfect) at predictions. So which climate model is excellent? An average of climate models is junk.

References?

lee wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 3:05pm:

All the way back to 1910? Didn't we have a climate before that? But I looked at the Broome data from 2011 to 2018 because of that BoM CSIRO report that said based on RCP4.5 Broome would have over 82 days/year over 35C. To date the annual average (2011-2018) over 35C is 68. Meaning in the next 12 years they have to average 91days/year over 35C. Models - you gotta love them. And that's only RCP4.5 not RCP8.5 the alarmists love to cite as "Business-As-Usual".

January, the hottest on record for Australia, that must carry some weight in the whole climate change debate.

Johnnie wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 3:12pm:

lee wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 3:05pm: All the way back to 1910? Didn't we have a climate before that? But I looked at the Broome data from 2011 to 2018 because of that BoM CSIRO report that said based on RCP4.5 Broome would have over 82 days/year over 35C. To date the annual average (2011-2018) over 35C is 68. Meaning in the next 12 years they have to average 91days/year over 35C. Models - you gotta love them. And that's only RCP4.5 not RCP8.5 the alarmists love to cite as "Business-As-Usual". January, the hottest on record for Australia, that must carry some weight in the whole climate change debate.

As an event on its own, about as much weight as the argument that the US Midwest cold snap carries in disproving climate change.

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 3:09pm:

References?

Reference for what? An average of climate models?

Seeing as they are already running too hot that means the average is too hot. Logically only ONE climate model, if any, can be right. All the averaging does is make the cooler ones hotter and artificially brings down the temps on the hottest ones.

eeing as they are already running too hot that means the average is too hot. Logically only ONE climate model, if any, can be right. All the averaging does is make the cooler ones hotter and artificially brings down the temps on the hottest ones.
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My understanding though is that is a reflection of some of the variables in the model.

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 3:13pm:

Johnnie wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 3:12pm: lee wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 3:05pm: All the way back to 1910? Didn't we have a climate before that? But I looked at the Broome data from 2011 to 2018 because of that BoM CSIRO report that said based on RCP4.5 Broome would have over 82 days/year over 35C. To date the annual average (2011-2018) over 35C is 68. Meaning in the next 12 years they have to average 91days/year over 35C. Models - you gotta love them. And that's only RCP4.5 not RCP8.5 the alarmists love to cite as "Business-As-Usual". January, the hottest on record for Australia, that must carry some weight in the whole climate change debate. As an event on its own, about as much weight as the argument that the US Midwest cold snap carries in disproving climate change.

Its weight nevertheless, you are in denial.

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 3:15pm:

My understanding though is that is a reflection of some of the variables in the model.

exactly. They call them parameters. Doesn't mean they have guessed the parameters right.

"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk."

John von Neumann

it was the IPCC that said the climate was chaotic and coudn't be modelled long term.

The climate system is a coupled non-linearchaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future exact climate states is not possible.

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/wg1ts.pdf

lee wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 3:08pm:

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 3:06pm: I do, excellent (but not perfect) at predictions. So which climate model is excellent? An average of climate models is junk.

Just ask the insurance companies. They had to dole out an additional 1.2 billion in claims because of changing climate !

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 3:31pm:

Just ask the insurance companies. They had to dole out an additional 1.2 billion in claims because of changing climate !

Really? Or was it just another way to make more money, by increasing premiums?

"Warren Buffett says global warming is not impacting the way Berkshire writes insurance"

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/27/warren-buffett-global-warming-not-impacting-berkshires-insurance-biz.html

You do realise that as people build more expensive houses, own more expensive cars and goodies that the replacement cost goes up? That means payouts go up. To cover those payouts premiums go up.

Did your dad buy a house for about 5000 pounds? What did your first one cost, if you have owned?

Victorian median price in 1977 was $37,000.

https://guides.slv.vic.gov.au/whatitcost/houses

lee wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 3:30pm:

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 3:15pm: My understanding though is that is a reflection of some of the variables in the model. exactly. They call them parameters. Doesn't mean they have guessed the parameters right. "With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk." John von Neumann it was the IPCC that said the climate was chaotic and coudn't be modelled long term. The climate system is a coupled non-linearchaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future exact climate states is not possible. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/wg1ts.pdf

More extreme weather events is what they predicted and that is exactly what we are witnessing. When are you going to give up this charade ?

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 3:45pm:

More extreme weather events is what they predicted and that is exactly what we are witnessing.

Are they more extreme, more often, what? We have come out of the LIA; you expected the temperatures to stay that low? Was that the "normal" temperature of the planet?

Which ones? Colder, hotter, wetter, drier. The term climate covers all these.

lee wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 3:44pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 6th, 2019 at 3:31pm: Just ask the insurance companies. They had to dole out an additional 1.2 billion in claims because of changing climate ! Really? Or was it just another way to make more money, by increasing premiums? "Warren Buffett says global warming is not impacting the way Berkshire writes insurance" https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/27/warren-buffett-global-warming-not-impacting-berkshires-insurance-biz.html You do realise that as people build more expensive houses, own more expensive cars and goodies that the replacement cost goes up? That means payouts go up. To cover those payouts premiums go up. Did your dad buy a house for about 5000 pounds? What did your first one cost, if you have owned? Victorian median price in 1977 was $37,000. https://guides.slv.vic.gov.au/whatitcost/houses

Is that one from your 101 skeptics excuse handbook too ? :D LOL

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 1:31pm:

The noose is slowly tightening around the climate deniers necks ! Extreme weather events are becoming much more regular around the globe and the one in a hundred year floods in the north are becoming one in 20 year events ! Quote: Australia swelters through its hottest month on record, with January mean temperature exceeding 30C It's official: January 2019 was Australia's hottest-ever month on record going all the way back to 1910, according to the monthly climate review released by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). It followed the hottest December on record for Australia — and there is no relief in sight for the months ahead. January was a truly record-breaking month across several fronts: the highest minimum, the highest maximum and the highest mean temperatures for Australia as a whole. The highest overnight minimum on record was broken multiple times with Wanaaring (Barrona Downs) in NSW currently holding the title at 36.6 degrees Celsius. The mean temperature for January averaged across the country exceeded 30C — the first time this had occurred in any month, the BOM said. The report also highlighted record long runs of consecutive hot days: Birdsville (Qld) had 10 consecutive days over 45C Alice Springs airport (NT) had 16 days in a row above 42C Cloncurry (Qld) had 43 consecutive days over 40C — a state record for Queensland Camooweal (Qld) had 40 consecutive days over 40C Walungurru (NT) had 27 consecutive days above 40C Bourke airport (NSW) had 21 consecutive days above 40C — a state record for New South Wales Rainfall was also below average for most areas but a monsoon trough brought some significant totals to northern Queensland late in the month. Here is how the different states felt the heat South Australia experienced its driest January since 2013. And Adelaide had one of the city's hottest Januaries on record, with maximum temperatures the highest for at least 10 years. For the first time since 1957, the BOM's Adelaide city site recorded zero rainfall for the month. Western Australia had one of its hottest Januaries on record, but temperatures were cooler than average in parts of the west coast and south-west. Rainfall for the state was below average and the month was the driest since 2005. While most of WA was suffering in the heat, Perth recorded its coolest January in more than a decade and rainfall was about average. New South Wales recorded its hottest January on record for mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures. The north-east of the state also experienced one of its driest Januaries on record. Sydney had one of its warmest Januaries on record, with average rainfall. Victoria also set a new record for January heat. Its rainfall was below average, with most of the state receiving less than 20 per cent of the month's average. Melbourne was exceptionally warm, with some sites recording their highest ever January temperatures. The city also had one of the 10 driest Januaries on record. The ACT also had its hottest January ever. The BOM's Canberra airport site had a record run of four days above 40C. The Northern Territory recorded its hottest January and the delayed onset of the monsoon contributed to the Territory receiving less than half its average January rainfall. Darwin had one of its warmest Januaries on record while rainfall was also below average. Queensland similarly had its hottest January and a monsoon low brought heavy rainfall to parts of the state. Brisbane was very warm, while rainfall was very low at about 20 per cent of the January average. Tasmania had its hottest and driest January on record, as did Hobart. Why so hot? The predicted El Nino did not eventuate this summer but even without the climate driver we usually associate with hot conditions the temperatures soared. BOM senior climatologist Andrew Watkins said there were a few factors at play in the unprecedented heat. "We saw heatwave conditions affect large parts of the country through most of the month, with records broken for both duration and also individual daily extremes," Dr Watkins said. "The main contributor to this heat was a persistent high-pressure system in the Tasman sea which was blocking any cold fronts and cooler air from impacting the south of the country. "The warming trend, which has seen Australian temperatures increase by more than one degree in the last 100 years, also contributed to the unusually warm conditions." https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-01/australian-weather-hottest-month-on-record-in-january/10769392

Not the total of Australia - I call BS.

Depends where you live ..... certainly in my neck of the woods it's been nowhere near as hot as some previous years have been.

AC's have only been used sparingly ... longest continuous use was 2 days. 

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 6^th, 2019 at 10:58pm:

Is that one from your 101 skeptics excuse handbook too ?

No petal. Basic economics. But that would be beyond you. ;)

The caravan moves on, leaving Lee wailing faintly in the distance ...

ooh iteration. must be something important.

More of a muffled sound from Lee perhaps?  ;)

https://i.imgur.com/zMwgqb2.jpg

Its Global Warming & Ice Age in one.

The planet is becoming Hotter & Colder: both extreme side-effects of a planet stuffed up by 'Science'  ;D and all its inventions of superior intellect.  :D