Don't know quite what do about them, really.  Makes life that much harder for pollsters... ::) ::)

So the pollsters got it wrong again. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

lee wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:00pm:

So the pollsters got it wrong again. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

They got the margin wrong.

They predicted that more people would vote for Biden, and they did.

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:03pm:

They got the margin wrong.

Boy did they ever. ;D ;D ;D


greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:03pm:

They predicted that more people would vote for Biden, and they did.

Nope. They predicted a Biden-slide. Not just more votes.

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cjph8914/2020_benfords/main/images/fulton.png

According to Benford's  Law. Follows expectations

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cjph8914/2020_benfords/main/images/milwaukee.png

Does not follow expectations.

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cjph8914/2020_benfords/main/images/chicago.png

Does not follow expectations.

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cjph8914/2020_benfords/main/images/allegheny.png

Again does not follow expectations.

But only in the seats Biden won. Anomalous?

lee wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:14pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9th, 2020 at 3:03pm: They got the margin wrong. Boy did they ever. ;D ;D ;D greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9th, 2020 at 3:03pm: They predicted that more people would vote for Biden, and they did. Nope.

Yep.

They predicted that more people would vote for Biden, and they did.

At least 4 million more.

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:16pm:

At least 4 million more.

But you know that it isn't just voter numbers don't you petal. You found that out last election. ;)

lee wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:14pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9th, 2020 at 3:03pm: They got the margin wrong. Boy did they ever. ;D ;D ;D greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9th, 2020 at 3:03pm: They predicted that more people would vote for Biden, and they did. Nope. They predicted a Biden-slide. Not just more votes. https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cjph8914/2020_benfords/main/images/fulton.png According to Benford's  Law. Follows expectations https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cjph8914/2020_benfords/main/images/milwaukee.png Does not follow expectations. https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cjph8914/2020_benfords/main/images/chicago.png Does not follow expectations. https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cjph8914/2020_benfords/main/images/allegheny.png Again does not follow expectations. But only in the seats Biden won. Anomalous?

Why have you put in vote counts versus poll numbers.

lee wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:19pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9th, 2020 at 3:16pm: At least 4 million more. But you know that it isn't just voter numbers don't you petal. You found that out last election. ;)

The polls don't predict electoral college votes - they predict votes for each candidate.

When they conduct a poll, they ask "If an election was held today, who would you vote for?"

They don't ask "If an election was held today, who do you think would receive the most electoral college votes?".

The news networks then take that raw data and make their own assumptions from it.

The pollsters predicted that more people would vote for Biden, and they did.

They were way out on the margin though.

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:25pm:

Why have you put in vote counts versus poll numbers.

Because it puts the election in some perspective. Did you want me to remove it? Why?

lee wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:50pm:

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Nov 9th, 2020 at 3:25pm: Why have you put in vote counts versus poll numbers. Because it puts the election in some perspective. Did you want me to remove it? Why?

What perspective do you seek to gain from posting this?

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:51pm:

What perspective do you seek to gain from posting this?

There seems to an an anomaly in voting patterns. ;)

lee wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 4:00pm:

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Nov 9th, 2020 at 3:51pm: What perspective do you seek to gain from posting this? There seems to an an anomaly in voting patterns. ;)

Yes but as I posted elsehwere it may just be a sign of how big the wards are. But what a shock thats the perspective you took.

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 4:04pm:

Yes but as I posted elsehwere it may just be a sign of how big the wards are.

or may not be. interesting that you took that position. ;)