And yet some people don't believe it is happening...Climate change report a 'code red for humanity', United Nations chief warns ::) ::)

Brian Ross wrote on Aug 9^th, 2021 at 6:32pm:

And yet some people don't believe it is happening..

Who are the dumb buggers who don't believe climate changes? ::)

Brian Ross wrote on Aug 9^th, 2021 at 6:32pm:

And yet some people don't believe it is happening...Climate change report a 'code red for humanity', United Nations chief warns ::) ::)

people like lee want it written in stone otherwise he is not a true believer :D LOL

Sir lastnail wrote on Aug 9^th, 2021 at 7:54pm:

people like lee want it written in stone otherwise he is not a true believer

Climate change is real. Interglacial, glacials what about that is not climate change?

Such a numpty. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

There is no shortage of climate skeptic dumb buggers on Ozpolitic.

The fan and the feces have a destiny and there is no turning back. It is too late.

Climate has momentum and this will keep climate change progressing despite any actions to attempt mitigation or reversal.

1. Global surface temperature was 1.09C higher in the decade between 2011-2020 than between 1850-1900.
2. The past five years have been the hottest on record since 1850
3. The recent rate of sea level rise has nearly tripled compared with 1901-1971
4. Human influence is "very likely" (90%) the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s and the decrease in Arctic sea-ice
5. It is "virtually certain" that hot extremes including heatwaves have become more frequent and more intense since the 1950s, while cold events have become less frequent and less severe


Quote:

Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity' By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent ... "It is a statement of fact, we cannot be any more certain; it is unequivocal and indisputable that humans are warming the planet." Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, said: "By using sports terms, one could say the atmosphere has been exposed to doping, which means we have begun observing extremes more often than before." The authors say that since 1970, global surface temperatures have risen faster than in any other 50-year period over the past 2,000 years. This warming is "already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe". Whether it's heatwaves like the ones recently experienced in Greece and western North America, or floods like those in Germany and China, "their attribution to human influence has strengthened" over the past decade. Global surface temperature was 1.09C higher in the decade between 2011-2020 than between 1850-1900. The past five years have been the hottest on record since 1850 The recent rate of sea level rise has nearly tripled compared with 1901-1971 Human influence is "very likely" (90%) the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s and the decrease in Arctic sea-ice It is "virtually certain" that hot extremes including heatwaves have become more frequent and more intense since the 1950s, while cold events have become less frequent and less severe The new report also makes clear that the warming we've experienced to date has made changes to many of our planetary support systems that are irreversible on timescales of centuries to millennia. The oceans will continue to warm and become more acidic. Mountain and polar glaciers will continue melting for decades or centuries. "The consequences will continue to get worse for every bit of warming," said Prof Hawkins. "And for many of these consequences, there's no going back."

Brian Ross wrote on Aug 9^th, 2021 at 6:32pm:

And yet some people don't believe it is happening...Climate change report a 'code red for humanity', United Nations chief warns ::) ::)

Tellya what Brian go tell these f@rkers that on one hand tell us CO2 is the end of us all.

And on the other they are geo-engineering our atmosphere.

How is it that a good citizen like you is all fussed about the nonsense they spew out about CO2...!

Yet you are blinded to these same people geo-engineering the Earth's atmosphere.

Please tell them to stop geo-engineering the Earths atmosphere so we can get areal gauge as to what is really happening.

You see when they make rain clouds drop their water in one part of the world this may cause wild fires and floods in another part of the world.

Dont believe its no secret no conspiracy theory they have been doing it since the 1940's go to the WMO and have a look they admit it openly.

Maybe thats why hail stones are getting bigger and bigger, just saying.

How does deliberately geo-engineering the Earths atmosphere sit with you....???

Bill Gates SCOPEX.

Thankfully the Swedish government backed out in the last minute, but thats only one we know about.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2021/01/11/bill-gates-backed-climate-solution-gains-traction-but-concerns-linger/?sh=61d49c88793b


https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1617490596

A bit ike the wanker greens in the USA who have supported thousands of bio-fuel power stations all over the USA.

Guess what the primary source of fuel is wood chips.

Where do wood chips come from.....????

F@rkwits...............!!........chopping down forrests to save the Earth.

How much brains do these sheeple have.

United Nations Geo-Engineering our atmosphere.

https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1579911720

GENEVA—Cautioning readers to avoid dwelling on the negative, the latest report published Monday by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was just a heartfelt letter telling humanity to remember the good times.

“Look, regardless of what happens next, it’s been a great 300,000 years for our species,” read the assessment in part, adding that it would be a shame if the prospect of continual cataclysmic storms and unbreathable air overshadowed Homo sapiens’ many high points, such as the development of spoken language, stone tools, and agriculture.

“After studying all the data on ozone levels and the rate of melting permafrost, we found that you shouldn’t harp on that and instead focus on stuff like the Renaissance and the invention of irrigation or ice cream, you know, the halcyon times. Despite what our projections state, humanity will always be alive as long as we keep it in our hearts.”

The report concluded by imploring global citizens to take immediate action by sharing one fond memory from our epoch.

Bertie wrote on Aug 10^th, 2021 at 9:43am:

GENEVA—Cautioning readers to avoid dwelling on the negative, the latest report published Monday by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was just a heartfelt letter telling humanity to remember the good times. “Look, regardless of what happens next, it’s been a great 300,000 years for our species,” read the assessment in part, adding that it would be a shame if the prospect of continual cataclysmic storms and unbreathable air overshadowed Homo sapiens’ many high points, such as the development of spoken language, stone tools, and agriculture. “After studying all the data on ozone levels and the rate of melting permafrost, we found that you shouldn’t harp on that and instead focus on stuff like the Renaissance and the invention of irrigation or ice cream, you know, the halcyon times. Despite what our projections state, humanity will always be alive as long as we keep it in our hearts.” The report concluded by imploring global citizens to take immediate action by sharing one fond memory from our epoch.

;D

Laugh till you cry wrote on Aug 9^th, 2021 at 10:57pm:

The oceans will continue to warm and become more acidic. Mountain and polar glaciers will continue melting for decades or centuries. "The consequences will continue to get worse for every bit of warming," said Prof Hawkins.

Which ocean is acidic?

Is all this from the Summary for Policymakers? The one the governments agree to the wording NOT the scientists? That makes it political not scientific. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Laugh till you cry wrote on Aug 9^th, 2021 at 10:57pm:

Climate has momentum and this will keep climate change progressing despite any actions to attempt mitigation or reversal.

It does? Then perhaps you can explain the changes from glaciation to interglacials. Once a glaciation has momentum what stops it? Interested people want to know.

Laugh till you cry wrote on Aug 9^th, 2021 at 10:57pm:

3. The recent rate of sea level rise has nearly tripled compared with 1901-1971

"U.N. Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked
PETER JAMES SPIELMANN June 30, 1989

UNITED NATIONS (AP) _ A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. "

https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0

But perhaps you can link the study?

Senate Passes Bill Wishing Younger Generations Best Of Luck Stopping Climate Change

WASHINGTON—Calling the legislation “long overdue,” the U.S. Senate passed a bill Wednesday wishing younger generations the best of luck stopping climate change.

“As devastating wildfires, flooding, and droughts sweep our planet, there has never been a more urgent time to shift the responsibility onto someone else,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who explained that the bill, called the SEE YA Act, or Saving the Earth Entrusted to Young Americans Act, would allocate over $100 billion toward putting up billboards across the country that read “Good luck!” with pictures of melting glaciers.

“We cannot allow future generations to inherit this mess without at least saying ‘you got this’ and giving them a hearty pat on the back. It is crucial that we dedicate significant resources to these well wishes. We know they have their work cut out for them, which is why every American under 18 will also receive a personalized signed photo of their representatives dusting off their hands and grimacing.”


At press time, President Joe Biden had vetoed the bill on the grounds it would be viewed as too radical.

Bertie wrote on Aug 10^th, 2021 at 11:36am:

At press time, President Joe Biden had vetoed the bill on the grounds it would be viewed as too radical.

More like to laughable. The billboards would stop AGW in its tracks? ;D ;D ;D ;D

Seriously $100 billion would provide many despatchable energy sources not intermittents.

BTW- What happens at COP27? What colour do they use? ;)

Ajax wrote on Aug 10^th, 2021 at 12:03am:

A bit ike the wanker greens in the USA who have supported thousands of bio-fuel power stations all over the USA.

Not only the USA. Canada also and now Germany is going to do its bit by replacing forest with wind turbines..

"How wind power endangers Germany’s nature and the health of its citizens

By Werner Köppen
www.klima-diegrossetransformation.de

(Translated, subheadings by P. Gosselin)

“State wants to build 500 new wind turbines in the state forest,” was the headline in the Badische Zeitung on July 26 over the decision by Germany’s Baden-Württemberg state government. This decision is the first step by the state coalition government of The Greens and CDU to build 1000 wind turbines in the next legislative period.

The news came only a few days after the flood disaster in North Rhine Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate, where it was quite obvious that a lack of flood plains was the main cause of the floods. Now policymakers have decided to destroy even more valuable forest areas and to seal the deforested ground with tens of thousands of tons of concrete.

Permanently disfigured landscape

Each wind turbine means the clear-cutting of 0.35 km2 of forest, lost CO2 and moisture reservoirs, all to be sealed by 3500 tons of concrete each for each turbine. To date, such concrete blocks have never been removed, insurmountable obstacles to deep-rooted trees and natural water control.

Moreover, two other negative impacts have been ignored by the press so far. First, scientific research that shows wind turbines slow down the wind and cause temperature increases locally, two effects that dry out the soil."

https://notrickszone.com/2021/08/06/baden-wurttemberg-government-announces-plans-to-clear-cut-state-forest-build-1000-turbines/

lee wrote on Aug 10^th, 2021 at 11:45am:

Bertie wrote on Aug 10th, 2021 at 11:36am: At press time, President Joe Biden had vetoed the bill on the grounds it would be viewed as too radical. More like to laughable. The billboards would stop AGW in its tracks? ;D ;D ;D ;D Seriously $100 billion would provide many despatchable energy sources not intermittents. BTW- What happens at COP27? What colour do they use? ;)

lee is starting to panic as the truth penetrates his cocoon of lies.

Laugh till you cry wrote on Aug 10^th, 2021 at 12:34pm:

lee is starting to panic as the truth penetrates his cocoon of lies.

You're the one who hasn't backed up his assertions. Why is that? ;)

Greta Thunberg responds to IPCC report, saying global warming must be treated as 'crisis' 8-)

Brian Ross wrote on Aug 10^th, 2021 at 9:18pm:

Greta Thunberg responds to IPCC report, saying global warming must be treated as 'crisis' 8-)

The Swedish Doom Goblin emerges to bestow her wisdom on us lesser mortals... ::)

The problem is uncontrolled population growth -
he planet cannot support 7.5 billion people
in the lifestyle of the 1st world countries.
It requires energy and it's coming from coal.

If we get Thorium nuclear reactors it will save us:
unlimited, cheap, safe power.

At least the Chinese are working 24 hours a day on that.
It's the only good thing they're doing.

‘No surprise but a stark warning’: How scientists around world reacted to IPCC’s landmark climate report

Yes. They closed the error bars on ECS by a bit. Said RCP8.5 and SSP7 were "low likelihood" but extended the resulting warming out to 7.7C on the back of this unlikelihood.

IPCC scientists' climate change report says rising seas will see Great Barrier Reef islands disappear ::) ::)

Brian Ross wrote on Aug 11^th, 2021 at 4:33pm:

IPCC scientists' climate change report says rising seas will see Great Barrier Reef islands disappear ::) ::)

You mean like Tuvalu, Kiribati etc? Those ones that are actually growing? ;D ;D ;D ;D

Corals are the great survivors, having handled Higher and lower sea levels. They build on top of one another. So suddenly they are going to drown? ;D ;D ;D

Edit: I can't find that in the technical section. Oh 55Cm based on models. ::)

Tide gauge data suggests less than 2mm. 100 years 200mm or 20Cm.

Fort Denison (Sydney) tide gauge -"The mean sea level trend is 0.65 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.10 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1886 to 2010 which is equivalent to a change of 0.21 feet in 100 years."

Source PMSL

EDIT2: Townsville shows a declining SLR trend of 0.77mm +/-0.21mm

Source: Sonel

lee wrote on Aug 10^th, 2021 at 12:08pm:

Ajax wrote on Aug 10th, 2021 at 12:03am: A bit ike the wanker greens in the USA who have supported thousands of bio-fuel power stations all over the USA. Not only the USA. Canada also and now Germany is going to do its bit by replacing forest with wind turbines.. "How wind power endangers Germany’s nature and the health of its citizens By Werner Köppen www.klima-diegrossetransformation.de (Translated, subheadings by P. Gosselin) “State wants to build 500 new wind turbines in the state forest,” was the headline in the Badische Zeitung on July 26 over the decision by Germany’s Baden-Württemberg state government. This decision is the first step by the state coalition government of The Greens and CDU to build 1000 wind turbines in the next legislative period. The news came only a few days after the flood disaster in North Rhine Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate, where it was quite obvious that a lack of flood plains was the main cause of the floods. Now policymakers have decided to destroy even more valuable forest areas and to seal the deforested ground with tens of thousands of tons of concrete. Permanently disfigured landscape Each wind turbine means the clear-cutting of 0.35 km2 of forest, lost CO2 and moisture reservoirs, all to be sealed by 3500 tons of concrete each for each turbine. To date, such concrete blocks have never been removed, insurmountable obstacles to deep-rooted trees and natural water control. Moreover, two other negative impacts have been ignored by the press so far. First, scientific research that shows wind turbines slow down the wind and cause temperature increases locally, two effects that dry out the soil." https://notrickszone.com/2021/08/06/baden-wurttemberg-government-announces-plans-to-clear-cut-state-forest-build-1000-turbines/

And these are people that are suppose to love the Earth and save her.

The whole lotta them are f@rkwits that will truely destroy the Earth by their actions in trying to save it.

They should be shot.

If the malarkey the united nations is spewing out were true first thing that should have happened is to ban

DE-FORESTATION........!!!

make it a criminal offence to cut down naturally occurring forests.

Oh wait thats right to be saved we only have to establish a carbon derivatives market on the stock exchange so the oligarchy can reap even more wealth from all nations.

Silly me carbon derivatives will solve all our problems.

Go ahead cut all the f@rking trees down.

https://i.imgur.com/DRTVkV2.jpg

IPCC’s sixth climate report disappoints across the board

By Die kalte Sonne
(Translated, headings by P. Gosselin)

The IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report on Climate (AR6) was published yesterday, August 9, 2021. Fritz Vahrenholt has summarized the most important things on Roland Tichys Einblick.

“Climate models (CMIP6) have failed across the board”

One notices in the report that it’s primarily politically and less scientifically anchored. How can it be the uncertainty range of CO2 climate sensitivity (i.e. the climate effectiveness of CO2) has been drastically narrowed down when the latest climate models (CMIP6) have failed across the board?

Reruns of an old myth

Curious: one of the chapter authors (Mauritsen) himself has for years represented a value well below the new range of 2.5-4.0°C per doubling of CO2. As in the 2001 AR3 report, the IPCC again is pushing a hockey stick in the summary for politicians. Allegedly, the climate of the past has hardly changed.

PAGES2K controversy

‘Die Welt’ conducted an interview with paleoclimatologist Ulf Büntgen, who explained how there had been a scandal in the PAGES2k group responsible for the new hockey stick. Many members left the group because they did not agree with the approach. Exactly as our Klimaschau had already speculated in 2020.

IPCC on this ice

Also peculiar: The IPCC states that this time it would use less the climate models for its forecasts (because they failed, but you don’t say that so openly), but instead the known climate past. And just that (“the son of the hockey stick”) is as wrong as the model results.

The IPCC is on very thin ice with this. It assumes rock solid that 100% of the warming since 1850 is man-made. All natural climate factors, which must have worked in former times (because the pre-industrial climate changed also significantly) must have been switched off today by “magic hand”. How does that work?

Flawed extreme weather models

Equally curious is that the report now sees a man-made component in extreme weather quite definitely. That’s pretty crazy, because most extreme weather has no trend at all over the last 150 years. And the models of Friederike Otto and colleagues regularly fail in the task of mapping extreme weather trends over the last pre-industrial millennia. These flawed models are then used to make the “attribution” i.e. assignment of man vs. nature. It’s like driving without a license.

Using “unlikely RCP 8.5 emissions scenario” a “serious mistake”

The AR6 treats the unlikely RCP 8.5 emissions scenario as if it were a plausible possibility. A serious mistake that misinforms politicians and other non-specialists. Now the air is getting thin for the IPCC because the AR6 has nothing to do with an open-ended, neutral summary of the state of knowledge. Only the ONE side of the scientific opinion spectrum is included.

Critical side excluded

Critics were not allowed to write in from the beginning. They were allowed to unload their frustration as reviewers and write down their criticism. However, they ended up directly in the wastepaper basket. The review editors were elected by the same political body as the authors, the IPCC board. And the board is elected by the governments, especially the green-influenced environment ministries of the countries.

“Scientific foundation as weak as ever”

After all the dust from this week’s AR6 report settles, things will likely, quickly become quiet about this new report. Because those involved know what they have hid from the public, where it gets dicey. True to the motto “The show must go on”, the AR6 was put on the stage with lots of hype although the scientific foundation was as weak as ever.

Stained scientists

The authors involved will be professionally rewarded by their governments. From the point of view of scientific ethics, however, a stain now sticks to them. For one may assume that the broad outlines of AR6 were already determined BEFORE they were written. The wide range of CO2 climate sensitivity had long been a thorn in everyone’s side. For 30 years the range existed, without progress. Now one has simply reduced the span by force, without technical basis. A true magic trick, but its illusion will be gone shortly thereafter.

Luke-warmers have the science on their side

Because research continues. The researchers who favor a value below 2.5°C/2xCO2 have strong scientific arguments that they will use in the coming years. For the IPCC, however, there will then be no turning back. A hopeless situation.

https://notrickszone.com/2021/08/10/ipcc-enters-into-thin-air-german-scientists-ipcc-in-a-hopeless-situation-stained-scientists/

Original Die kalte Sonne

AllTricksZone, LOL! Desperate lee strikes again.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 12^th, 2021 at 5:01pm:

AllTricksZone, LOL! Desperate lee strikes again.

Monk,
https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1612043899

I note that I'm still banned at your MRB.
https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1611732194

Stop stealing videos and I will remove it, thief.

Bobby. wrote on Aug 12^th, 2021 at 9:16pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 12th, 2021 at 5:01pm: AllTricksZone, LOL! Desperate lee strikes again. Monk, https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1612043899 I note that I'm still banned at your MRB. https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1611732194

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 13^th, 2021 at 9:32am:

Stop stealing videos and I will remove it, thief.

Monk,
You are posting here at this MRB when you're banned.

You only just got back from a long ban
and straight away you're breaking the rules.
If you apologise I won't report this incident.

Clad in the trappings of science, these versions of the end time cast it as a catastrophe under human control. If mankind averted the disaster, humanity would be saved; if not, it would trigger an apocalypse that, in marked contrast to earlier conceptions, no longer foreshadowed a new beginning. Shorn of the Christian promise of redemption, humanity, should it fail to act decisive­ly, would, this time, have neither new life nor any second chances.

Hence the dramatic urgency that permeated the mass campaigns for the renunciation of war in the 1920s, for unilateral nuclear disarmament in the ’60s and for drastic environmental action in the decades after that.

And hence too each of those movements’ obsession with inexorable “tipping points” that, although invariably pushed back as previously announced deadlines arrived, were always portrayed as fast approaching.

Poised on the eve of its own extinction, humanity seemed, in these fully secularised visions of mankind’s demise, even more forlorn than it was when the end days reflected the wrath of primeval gods.

It may be that the apocalypse’s persistence over the millennia reflects an evolutionary function: perhaps natural selection, harnessing the individual fear of death to the goal of humanity’s survival, has endowed us with a collective hypochondria that keeps societies on their toes. And it may also be that our visions of the end have become more grounded in reality and better constrained by analytical disciplines than were their predecessors.

But if history has a lesson, it is that the apocalyptic mindset has repeatedly unleashed forces every bit as dangerous as the fates it foretold. Impatient for action, disdainful of debate, extreme fears, like extreme hopes, have always been the implacable enemies of reasoned judgment and of democratic deliberation. Releasing ancient instincts, those fears can readily fuel fanaticism, intolerance and distrust; and they are made all the more dangerous by their interaction with the myriad other factors tearing the social fabric. As the pandemic and climate change once again set those instincts aflame, it would be ironic if our fear of an ending finally proved to be the end of us.
Henry Ergas

Report away you pathetic poof

Speaking of Poofs, why is the Transvestite tolerated here, Bobby?

Brian Ross wrote on Aug 13^th, 2021 at 2:40pm:

Speaking of Poofs, why is the Transvestite tolerated here, Bobby?

I haven't reported him because I feel sorry for him
having such a long ban.
I wouldn't want to be responsible for him
getting an even longer ban.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 12^th, 2021 at 5:01pm:

AllTricksZone, LOL! Desperate lee strikes again.

Poor petal. Trying once again to shoot the messenger.

Didn't you notice the citation?
lee wrote on Aug 12^th, 2021 at 11:14am:

By Die kalte Sonne

;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

But it seems the best you can do; some scientist. :D :D :D :D :D :D

AllTricksZone, LOL! Poor, desperate Lee!

Brian Ross wrote on Aug 13^th, 2021 at 2:40pm:

Speaking of Poofs, why is the Transvestite tolerated here, Bobby?

Is Monk a transvestite?  :o

Neferti wrote on Aug 14^th, 2021 at 7:58am:

Brian Ross wrote on Aug 13th, 2021 at 2:40pm: Speaking of Poofs, why is the Transvestite tolerated here, Bobby? Is Monk a transvestite?  :o

Brian says he is - does he know some gossip?

Bobby. wrote on Aug 14^th, 2021 at 8:00am:

Neferti wrote on Aug 14th, 2021 at 7:58am: Brian Ross wrote on Aug 13th, 2021 at 2:40pm: Speaking of Poofs, why is the Transvestite tolerated here, Bobby? Is Monk a transvestite?  :o Brian says he is - does he know some gossip?

I can't imagine Monk in a dress.  He looks more like a garden gnome than a tranny.

https://www.brightlife.com.au/media/catalog/product/cache/9df0cd3f7c8f2cdd23ade6e5b8ec0ce1/g/n/gnome.jpg

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 13^th, 2021 at 6:54pm:

AllTricksZone, LOL! Poor, desperate Lee!

Poor JM. Can't actually debunk what was said. Such a numpty. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Bobby. wrote on Aug 13^th, 2021 at 3:04pm:

Brian Ross wrote on Aug 13th, 2021 at 2:40pm: Speaking of Poofs, why is the Transvestite tolerated here, Bobby? I haven't reported him because I feel sorry for him having such a long ban. I wouldn't want to be responsible for him getting an even longer ban.

I was referring to Soren/Aunt Agatha/Bertie, Bobby.  Tsk, tsk.   ::) ::)

Neferti wrote on Aug 14^th, 2021 at 7:58am:

Brian Ross wrote on Aug 13th, 2021 at 2:40pm: Speaking of Poofs, why is the Transvestite tolerated here, Bobby? Is Monk a transvestite?  :o

https://emojipedia-us.s3.dualstack.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/thumbs/120/google/223/yawning-face_1f971.png

Soren/Aunt Agatha/Bertie, not Monk...   ::) ::)

The re-emergence of the Hockey Stick

"Curiously, this leading diagram of the Summary of Policy-Makers does not appear in the Report itself. (At least, I was unable to locate it in Chapter 2.) However, it is clearly the progeny of PAGES2K Consortium (Nature 2019) and Kaufman et al (2020), both of which I commented on briefly on Twitter (see here).

It’s hard to know where to begin.

The idea/definition of a temperature “proxy” is that it has some sort of linear or near-linear relationship to temperature with errors being white noise or low-order red noise. In other words, if you look at a panel of actual temperature “proxies”, you would expect to see series that look pretty similar and consistent.

But that’s not what you see with the data used by the IPCC. You’d never know this from the IPCC report or even from the cited articles, since authors of these one- and two-millennium temperature reconstructions scrupulously avoid plotting any of the underlying data. It’s hard for readers unfamiliar with the topic to fully appreciate the extreme inconsistency of underlying “proxy” data, given the faux precision of the IPCC diagram.

Many of the series discussed in this post, including nearly all of any HS-shaped series, have been previously discussed in Climate Audit blog posts (tag/pages2k) from 2, 5, 10 or even 15 years ago or in tweets from 2019 and 2020 (see here).

The PAGES2019 is not a “random” selection of proxies, but winnowed through ex post criteria. As Rosanne d’Arrigo explained to the NAS panel many years ago: if you want to make cherry pie, you first have to pick cherries.

The PAGES2019 dataset consists of 257 proxies, selected from the prior PAGES2017 dataset consisting of 692 proxies, which had previously been selected from thousands of proxy series accumulated by many authors over the years.

In order to give readers an overview of the underlying data – not the massaged final product, I’ve plotted three batches of 11 randomly selected series from each of PAGES2017, PAGES2019 and then PAGES2019 North American tree rings and then commented on each batch. (The samples were selected by R formula sample(1:K, 11) where K is the size of dataset being sampled.) In each case, there were usually series that I had already studied plus numerous non-descript series, which are notable and important to show precisely because the majority of proxies are non-descript and you need to see this to understand it.

This post will be a work in progress for a few days, as I have some sections on special issues that I will try to add as I have time.

A First Batch: PAGES2017 Proxies

As a first illustration, below is a random sample of 11 PAGES2017 series. The series carried forward to PAGES2019 are in blue. For reference, the IPCC curve is shown in red. As you can easily see, most of the series are non-descript and short. Only one series in this sample (Cape Ghir temperature alkenones) has a hockey stick shape, but it goes down.

It’s not as though PAGES2K made a composite from 257 series that are two millennia long, all or a majority having a HS shape. One series in this sample does look a lot like the IPCC stick and will be discussed at length below, but the others look very different.

Four of the series in the sample are very short – three of them are actually shorter than the instrumental record. These are all coral Sr or coral d18O series, which make up 25% of the PAGES2019 data set. The extremely short records illustrated above are typical, indeed almost universal, in this class of proxy. They do have a pronounced trend in the instrumental period. This contrasts with the lack of trend that one sees in the two long proxies in the middle column above – a tree ring series from Mt Read, Tasmania (also used in MBH98) and a 1983 ice core series by Fisher from Devon Ice Cap on Baffin Island (also available to 1990s vintage multiproxy studies).

The short coral series do not contribute information to the medieval and earlier periods which one is trying to compare to the modern period. So what is their function? Do they contribute anything other than painting a moustache on the non-descript longer series?

The tree ring series in this sample are rather short; the screening procedures have somewhat concentrated series with slight upticks. (The stripbark bristlecone chronologies that were so prominent in the Mann et al Hockey Stick continue to be used in PAGES2019 – as discussed below.) I discussed the series in the left column with large uptick (Asi_MUSPIG aka paki033) in a 2019 tweet thread here. I located the underlying ring width measurements at NOAA and re-calculated the tree ring “chronology” using standard methodology – see below. The high-frequency details match, showing that the underlying measurement data is apples-to-apples. No chronology from original authors is archived at NOAA: so how did PAGES2K manage to get such a hockey stick? I have no idea.

The most “interesting” series in this sample batch is the borehole temperature reconstruction that has such an uncanny resemblance to the eventual IPCC reconstruction. By coincidence (or not), I wrote about this borehole temperature reconstruction (from WAIS Divide, Antarctica) in February 2019, a few months before publication of PAGES 2019 – see here – scroll down – for a more thorough analysis.

TBC

Cont.-

I’ve written multiple posts on the mathematics of borehole inversion calculations, which purport to estimate temperatures for thousands of years into the past from modern day temperatures measured downhole. These calculations require the inversion of a multicollinear matrix (with determinant close to 0). As far as I’m concerned, nearly all the details that specialists pontificate about are a sort of Chladni pattern artifact.

But that’s another story. Here the problem was much stranger. A few years earlier, I had (circuitously) managed to obtain a copy of the code used to calculate this borehole inversion (which is not archived anywhere.) The code showed that they had deleted the top 15 meters of the core from their calculation.

I’ve had a LOT of trouble getting the underlying borehole temperatures for some famous series. (The 2006 NAS panel cited one such result, but the original author (a US government employee) refused to make the data available, and, to my knowledge, it remains unavailable.) However, in this case, the underlying downhole temperatures had been archived, including the values had been deleted. Needless to say, they went down. An inversion using all the data would not have resulted in the impressive Hockey Stick in the PAGES2019 dataset, but a substantial recent decline.

There are one series with an enormous hockey stick: Mackenzie Delta (Porter 2013); and two series (“GB [Great Basin]” and nv512) with noticeable closing upticks. Sharp-eyed readers may have already figured out some of this story.

I discussed the Mackenzie Delta super-stick of Porter et al (2013), a new entry to hockey stick fabrication technology, in July 2019 here on Twitter. It comes from Yukon, Canada, an area that, in a 2004 study by d’Arrigo et al, had been a type location for the classic “divergence problem” – ring widths going down, while temperatures went up. So how did Porter et al manage to get a super-stick that had eluded Jacoby and d’Arrigo, long-time searchers for hockey sticks in tree ring data and not shy about picking cherries in order to make cherry pie?

They took “hide the decline” to extremes that had never been contemplated by prior practitioners of this dark art. Rather than hiding the decline in the final product, they did so for individual trees: as explained in the underlying article, they excluded the “divergent portions” of individual trees that had temerity to have decreasing growth in recent years. Even Briffa would never have contemplated such woke radical measures.

https://climateaudit.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/image-12.png

To be fair, Porter et al’s original article showed both the actual (non-descript) chronology from all trees, together with superstick resulting from “hide the decline” on individual trees: the decision to use the spurious superstick belongs to Neukom and PAGES2019.

Readers will also recall that the 2006 NAS Panel recommended that “stripbark” chronologies be “avoided” in temperature reconstructions. Although the climate community has professed to implement the recommendations of the NAS Panel, they are addicted to stripbark chronologies, the properties of which are well known. Five different PAGES2019 series use stripbark bristlecones (three from original Graybill versions): nv512 (Pearl Peak); nv513 (Mount Washington); ca529 (Timber Gap Upper); SFP (an update of San Francisco Peaks, incorporating az510) and GB (a composite of Pearl Peak, Mount Washington and Sheep Mountain, using both Graybill and updated information).

In 2018, I looked at how North American tree ring networks had changed since MBH98. The one constant was the addiction of paleoclimatologists to stripbark chronologies- a phenomenon that I had commented on long before Climategate (citing Clapton et al and Paeffgen et al), much to the annoyance of dendros, but the comment remains as true now as it was then. "

https://climateaudit.org/2021/08/11/the-ipcc-ar6-hockeystick/
Can everybody say cherry pick? ;)