Some places will soon be too hot to grow wheat. So what are farmers there supposed to grow? Sorghum?

Different wine grape varieties and grapes from different subregions are all ripening closer and closer together, making winery management more complex. The Barossa Valley floor is getting so hot that old varieties are being ripped out and more heat tolerant varieties like Fiano are being planted—how long will that help? It is no wonder that the Adelaide Hills Wine Area is emerging as a classic wine area—but for how long?

Honey bees are being stressed: AGW making the days too hot and dry for bees, there are predatory and parasitical pest species targeting honey bee hives. In the US bumble bee populations are declining. Monoculture, huge swathes of one crop (some genetically identical) are thought to lead to nutrient deficiencies. Without pollinators say goodbye to fruit other than tomatoes, no apples, peaches, oranges etc. Tomato and wheat are wind pollinated, not so other crops.

AGW melts land ice and thermally expands the top layers of the oceans, this leads to floods, saltwater incursion into coastal agricultural land, etc.


—Just some topics the Environment board could discuss, IF it had a competent Mod.

The tropics will soon become uninhabitable—look up “wet bulb temperatures.”

The tundra is thawing because of AGW. Look for huge natural releases of methane and possible old pest bacteria awakening and spreading—we now know what that is like, eh?

AGW by making the subtropics warmer is helping pest species expand from the tropics to the subtropics.

Must be other ecological subjects worth discussing. We are in a pandemic—be worth looking at previous pandemics—how they started and spread, what successful actions were taken against them etc. Nothing more topical than pandemic in this age of mass air travel.

Anyone. . .?

Here is a great article talking about river ecology, AGW causing drought, hydroelectricy generation etc in the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon.

Increasing drought is what the southern half of Australia faces and the Murray and Darling are in trouble just like the Colorado River is.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/08082021/grand-canyon-colorado-river-water-drought

When Environment has a decent Mod we can discuss that instead of ice age nonsense.

Ah yes all those problems in some ill defined alternate future. ;)


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 15^th, 2021 at 5:37pm:

Increasing drought is what the southern half of Australia faces and the Murray and Darling are in trouble just like the Colorado River is.

So irrigation is a problem? Dams are a problem? And yet people want  to build more dams. ;)

lee wrote on Aug 15^th, 2021 at 8:22pm:

Ah yes all those problems in some ill defined alternate future. ;) Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 15th, 2021 at 5:37pm: Increasing drought is what the southern half of Australia faces and the Murray and Darling are in trouble just like the Colorado River is. So irrigation is a problem? Dams are a problem? And yet people want  to build more dams. ;)

What is your problem with a dam?  Once its full, the excess water which is an eternal tap from the sky (other than in a drought) ....spills out of the dam to go downstream.

The southern half of the continent is drying out. The Murray is in the southern half of the continent. Honestly, it is like talking to a child, an autistic child.

More than that, it is like talking to an autistic child with dementia—when I posted an Intro to AGW (for the second time, the first time a farqwit GMod moved it the Dubyne MRB) the autistic child wanted to argue what I had posted—even tho we had argued this before in the Dubyne MRB. Hence lee’s ban from Gardens and Critters.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 16^th, 2021 at 12:32pm:

Hence lee’s ban from Gardens and Critters.

The ban was nothing to do with that. It was to do with Ice loss in Antarctica. Why this pathological need to lie?

Something that he has deleted so there is now no proof. What a prevaricating clown. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

"Jovial Monk
Moderator
*****
Online


Thumper, LOL!

Posts: 25539
Gender: male
     
Re: Ice loss in Antarctica
Reply #11 - Mar 31st, 2021 at 1:45pm Quote
lee is banned indefinitely from Critters and Gardens. "

Just in case he disappears this now. ;)

Aussie wrote on Aug 15^th, 2021 at 9:10pm:

What is your problem with a dam?  Once its full, the excess water which is an eternal tap from the sky (other than in a drought) ....spills out of the dam to go downstream.

And what happens in the intervening period between build and overflow? How many years? What does that do to downstream farming? What about flooding upstream pastures?

But have a look at he Green's policy on dams.

https://greens.org.au/search/node?keys=dams

It was to do with you being tiresome and wanting to debate stuff already discussed and that included ice loss from Antarctica. And Critters and Gardens is not the place for that debate.

Why the need to discuss then discuss then discuss? Desperate lee the autistic child with dementia.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 16^th, 2021 at 2:55pm:

It was to do with you being tiresome and wanting to debate stuff already discussed and that included ice loss from Antarctica. And Critters and Gardens is not the place for that debate.

And yet you raised it. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 16^th, 2021 at 2:55pm:

Why the need to discuss then discuss then discuss? Desperate lee the autistic child with dementia.

Poor petal. How soon he forgets. The poor penguins apparently died because they had to cover an extra 2-3 metres. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Of course, as usual, he had it bass ackwards.


Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 31^st, 2021 at 2:59pm:

The land ice slid off and became sea ice, forcing the penguins to travel much further overland to reach the sea. I suggest you drop that idiotic way of posting or face a ban from here. You are just a waste of time with a few ways of obfuscating and closing down debate.

So if it slid off and became sea ice - surely that means they have less travel to the new ice edge because the old ice edge is now sea ice. ::)

How many doomsday predictions from the loony climate fanatics have come true?

Funny that.

Globe is warming at 0.2°C per decade.

Most of your “predictions” have not been made by scientists.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17^th, 2021 at 11:22am:

Globe is warming at 0.2°C per decade.

Seems less according to REMSS and UAH. ;)


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 17^th, 2021 at 11:22am:

Most of your “predictions” have not been made by scientists.

"1. Warming rate predictions

1990 IPCC FAR: “Under the IPCC ‘Business as Usual’ emissions of greenhouse gases the average rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century is estimated to be 0.3°C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2°C – 0.5°C).”

2. 1990 IPCC FAR: “Under the IPCC ‘Business as Usual’ emissions of greenhouse gases … this will result in a likely increase in global mean temperature of about 1°C above the present value by 2025.”

3. Winter predictions

2001 IPCC TAR (AR3) predicts that milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms,

4. Snow predictions

2000 Dr. David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, predicts that within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”

2004 Adam Watson, from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Banchory, Aberdeenshire, said the Scottish skiing industry had no more than 20 years left.

5. Precipitation predictions
2007 IPCC AR4 predicts that by 2020, between 75 and 250 million of people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%.

6. Extreme weather predictions

2010 Dr. Morris Bender, from NOAA, and coauthors predict that “the U.S. Southeast and the Bahamas will be pounded by more very intense hurricanes in the coming decades due to global warming.” They say the strongest hurricanes may double in frequency.

7. Wildfire predictions

2001 IPCC TAR (AR3) said that fire frequency is expected to increase with human-induced climate change, and that several authors suggest that climate change is likely to increase the number of days with severe burning conditions, prolong the fire season, and increase lightning activity, all of which lead to probable increases in fire frequency and areas burned.

8. Rotation of the Earth predictions

2007 Dr. Felix Landerer of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, published a study predicting that Global warming will make Earth spin faster. See here.

2015 Dr. Jerry Mitrovica, professor of geophysics at Harvard University finds out that days are getting longer as the Earth spins slower, and blames climate change.

9. Arctic sea ice predictions

2007 Prof. Wieslaw Maslowski from Dept. Oceanography of the US Navy predicted an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer 2013, and said the prediction was conservative.

2007 NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally predicted that the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer in 2012.

2008 University of Manitoba Prof. David Barber predicted an ice-free North Pole for the first time in history in 2008.

2012 Prof. Peter Wadhams, head of the polar ocean physics group at the University of Cambridge (UK), predicted a collapse of the Arctic ice sheet by 2015-2016.

10. Polar bear predictions

2005 The 40 members of the Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) of the World Conservation Union decided to classify the polar bear as “vulnerable” based on a predicted 30 percent decline in their worldwide population over the next 35 to 50 years. The principal cause of this decline is stated to be climatic warming and its negative effects on the sea ice habitat.

2017 The US Fish and Wildlife Service releases a report concluding that human-driven global warming is the biggest threat to polar bears and that if action isn’t taken soon the Arctic bears could be in serious risk of extinction. “It cannot be overstated that the single most important action for the recovery of polar bears is to significantly reduce the present levels of global greenhouse gas emissions.”

2010 Science: Fake polar bear picture chosen to illustrate a letter to Science about scientific integrity on climate change.

11. Glacier predictions

2007 IPCC AR4 says there is a very high likelihood that Himalayan glaciers will disappear by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate.

IPCC officials recanted the prediction in 2010 after it was revealed the source was not peer-reviewed. Previously they had criticized the Indian scientist that questioned the prediction and ignored an IPCC author than in 2006 warned the prediction was wrong.

12. Sea level predictions

1981 James Hansen, NASA scientist, predicted a global warming of “almost unprecedented magnitude” in the next century that might even be sufficient to melt and dislodge the ice cover of West Antarctica, eventually leading to a worldwide rise of 15 to 20 feet in the sea level.

13. Sinking nations predictions

1989 Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. As global warming melts polar icecaps, ocean levels will rise by up to three feet, enough to cover the Maldives and other flat island nations

Continued ..

14. Food shortage predictions

1994 A study, by Columbia and Oxford Universities researchers, predicted that under CO2 conditions assumed to occur by 2060, food production was expected to decline in developing countries (up to -50% in Pakistan). Even a high level of farm-level adaptation in the agricultural section could not prevent the negative effects.

2008 Stanford researchers predicted a 95% chance that several staple food crops in South Asia and Southern Africa will suffer crop failures and produce food shortages by 2030, due to 1°C warming from the 1980-2000 average.

15. Climate refugee predictions

2005 Janos Bogardi, director of the Institute for Environment and Human Security at the United Nations University in Bonn and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) warned that there could be up to 50 million environmental refugees by the end of the decade.

2008 UN Deputy secretary-general Srgjan Kerim, tells the UN General Assembly, that it had been estimated that there would be between 50 million and 200 million environmental migrants by 2010.

2011 Cristina Tirado, from the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, says 50 million “environmental refugees” will flood into the global north by 2020, fleeing food shortages sparked by climate change.

16. Climate change casualty predictions

1987 Dr. John Holdren, director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy for the Obama administration then a professor at U.C. Berkeley was cited by Paul Ehrlich: “As University of California physicist John Holdren has said, it is possible that carbon dioxide climate-induced famines could kill as many as a billion people before the year 2020.”

1989 Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) says that within the next 10 years, given the present loads that the atmosphere must bear, we have an opportunity to start the stabilizing process.

2006 NASA scientist James Hansen says the world has a 10-year window of opportunity to take decisive action on global warming and avert catastrophe

2007 U.N. Scientists say only eight years left to avoid worst effects .

B. Failure to predict

1. A greener planet

1992 The CO2 fertilization effect was well known, and experiments since at least 1988 showed that farm yields increased significantly. This was an easy prediction to make, yet it was ignored.

2. Increase in forest biomass

2006: For four of the past five decades global forest dynamics were thought to be primarily driven by deforestation. It was only in the last decade when it was noticed that a great majority of reports were contradicting that assumption. “Of the 49 papers reporting forest production levels we reviewed, 37 showed a positive growth trend.” The authors also write “climatic changes seemed to have a generally positive impact on forest productivity” when sufficient water is available.

3. Carbon sinks increases

1992: In the late 80’s a “missing sink” was discovered in the carbon budget accounting, and was discussed through the 90’s. The possibility that Earth’s oceans and terrestrial ecosystems could respond to the increase in CO2 by absorbing more CO2 had not occurred to climate scientists, and when it occurred to them they mistakenly thought that deforestation would be a higher factor.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/30/some-failed-climate-predictions/

The predictions are linked to their source.

Plenty of scientists there. ;)

Bushfires (wildfires elsewhere) are also growing in intensity—and dumping CO2 into the atmosphere.

While fuel reduction burns are done it gets hot earlier in the spring and summer so it gets harder and harder to manage fuel reduction burns safely.

Some alternative to fuel reduction burns is badly needed. AGW is not stopping as I have made clear in this thread.

The latest IPCC Report states we will reach 1.5°C above preindustrial by 2020.

Pretty much correct: we are 1.1°C above preindustrial now so two decades of 0.2°C warming and we are at 1.5°C.

Possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet is about to slide into the sea. It is heading that way. That will be “fun.” It will happen tho, unless emissions are stabilised and reduced.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 18^th, 2021 at 3:27pm:

Some alternative to fuel reduction burns is badly needed. AGW is not stopping as I have made clear in this thread.

So you would nuke 'em out of existence ;D ;D ;D ;D


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 18^th, 2021 at 3:27pm:

While fuel reduction burns are done it gets hot earlier in the spring and summer so it gets harder and harder to manage fuel reduction burns safely.

Especially when the eco-zealots stop them. ;)


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 18^th, 2021 at 3:27pm:

Bushfires (wildfires elsewhere) are also growing in intensity—and dumping CO2 into the atmosphere.

Link?

You need a link for burning wood releases CO2 into the atmosphere?

You are no longer just desperate, you are bloody unhinged lee! Seek medical help NOW!

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 18^th, 2021 at 3:30pm:

The latest IPCC Report states we will reach 1.5°C above preindustrial by 2020.

The models of CMIP6. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 18^th, 2021 at 3:30pm:

retty much correct: we are 1.1°C above preindustrial now so two decades of 0.2°C warming and we are at 1.5°C.

They said Australia was already at 1.4C; why are you giving more time before we perish? ;D ;D ;D ;D


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 18^th, 2021 at 3:30pm:

Possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet is about to slide into the sea. It is heading that way. That will be “fun.” It will happen tho, unless emissions are stabilised and reduced.

At what temperature pet? The Antarctic is showing no sign of warming.

"Low Antarctic continental climate sensitivity due to high ice sheet orography"

"The Antarctic continent has not warmed in the last seven decades, despite a monotonic increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. In this paper, we investigate whether the high orography of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has helped delay warming over the continent."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-00143-w

Now we know CO2 is a well mixed gas and therefore the concentrations are the same as elsewhere. We also know Antarctica is a frozen desert with little precipitation. Therefore it seems clear that it is water and not CO2 that controls climate. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 18^th, 2021 at 4:41pm:

You need a link for burning wood releases CO2 into the atmosphere?

No petal. but greenies have been saying for years burning wood is ok because it is recyclable. ;)


lee wrote on Aug 18^th, 2021 at 4:32pm:

Jovial Monk wrote Today at 1:27pm: Bushfires (wildfires elsewhere) are also growing in intensity—and dumping CO2 into the atmosphere. Link?

That was the link requested petal. You said they are "growing in intensity" - that can only happen with more fuel. Why do you say something and then try and pretend it was something else entirely? ;D ;D ;D

Really? That is not the question you asked. GO get that medical attention NOW!

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 18^th, 2021 at 5:17pm:

Really? That is not the question you asked.

Poor petal. Can't accept the obvious. Just as well you are not the mod here otherwise it would have disappeared.

No changes to the post. And there was a nine minute gap between mine and your posts so the change would have been noted. Why do you have this pathological need to lie? ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

SEEK MEDICAL HELP lee!

Poor petal. Just can't help himself. ;D ;D ;D

But tell us your version of CO2 warming of Antarctica. ;)

Why are you here, lee? You should be booking into psychiatric care!

Poor petal. Why are you here petal? You seem to want the echo chamber of your cats n critters forum where you have said you don't want debate. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Don’t be here, lee! Call for an ambulance and head to the Psych ward!

poor petal. So much knowledge of AGW. NOT. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

There is a thing known as “wet bulb temperature.”  This shows that parts of the tropics will become uninhabitable as the global temperature keeps rising.

Tropics and hot and humid already. Higher temperature means more evaporation from the oceans—so the tropics will become hotter and hotter and and more and more humid.

You might think—I will move to higher latitudes. No help there either. Areas at high latitudes have long summer days. Increasingly these will become long unbearably hot summer days. Bismarck in North Dakota, about as far north as you can get in the continental US, had 106°F days this summer.

A nice vision of the future:

https://link.newyorker.com/view/5d87c528283d8e22f8320025eod5h.u8x/a2b64a1f


I don’t engage in warnings of cataclysmic events. Just the steady rise in temperatures is bad enough but thought this warranted posting.

Quote:

On August 14, 2021, rain was observed at the highest point on the Greenland Ice Sheet for several hours, and air temperatures remained above freezing for about nine hours. This was the third time in less than a decade, and the latest date in the year on record, that the National Science Foundation’s Summit Station had above-freezing temperatures and wet snow. There is no previous report of rainfall at this location (72.58°N 38.46°W), which reaches 3,216 meters (10,551 feet) in elevation.

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

I remind members that the Milankovitch Cycle SHOULD be making the Arctic Circle COLDER!

Melting ice, of course, translates into sea level rise. This has accelerated in the last few decades and not much more warming will be needed for another acceleration of sea levels.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 19^th, 2021 at 12:07pm:

There is a thing known as “wet bulb temperature.”  This shows that parts of the tropics will become uninhabitable as the global temperature keeps rising.

Where is this shown? Has Singapore been told? ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 19^th, 2021 at 12:07pm:

Tropics and hot and humid already. Higher temperature means more evaporation from the oceans—so the tropics will become hotter and hotter and and more and more humid.

Poor petal. What happens at 100% humidity? It even occurs at today's levels. ;)


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 19^th, 2021 at 12:07pm:

Bismarck in North Dakota, about as far north as you can get in the continental US, had 106°F days this summer.

Wow. So what is the highest temperature for Bismarck? July - 114F? August - 109F

https://www.weather.gov/bis/climate_EXT

;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

or perhaps you prefer wiki?

"The highest temperature ever recorded in Bismarck was 114 °F (46 °C), on July 6, 1936.[4] The temperature has reached or exceeded 110 °F (43.3 °C) in Bismarck a total of five times in recorded weather history. Two of those occasions were in the same five-year period: 111 °F (43.9 °C) in June 2002, and 112 °F (44.4 °C) in July 2006. "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Bismarck,_North_Dakota

;)