Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 11^th, 2021 at 2:02pm:

Quote: Polar Bears Are Suffering from the Arctic’s Loss of Sea Ice. So Is Scientists’ Ability to Study Them The melting ice is affecting the bears’ behavior and physical condition, and it has made studying them through forays out onto the ice a treacherous business. . . . Retreating sea ice in the Arctic is crippling scientists’ ability to study and monitor polar bears, Atwood and other experts say. The study of the bears, top-of-the-food-chain carnivores with adorable faces, is critical for conservation of the animals and their environment. Studies show that the decline of sea ice, driven by climate change, is affecting the behavior and physical condition of polar bears, and making it harder for the animals to find enough food to survive. But fallout from global warming also means that Atwood and other researchers have fewer opportunities to hop in a helicopter for forays over the ice. Normally, polar bear scientists track the status of the bears by spotting them from an aircraft, sedating them and landing nearby to conduct a thorough biological examination. The South Beaufort, where Atwood does his research, historically has been frozen over for most of the year, with some slivers of ice disappearing near the shores in late summer, usually August and September. But in recent years, the ice-free areas have greatly enlarged, and persisted for longer periods because of climate change. Over the last 25 years, the summer melt period has lengthened by as much as 82 percent, according to USGS studies, and sea ice cover has declined by more than half a million square miles.  The acceleration of sea ice melt results from a combination of warming Pacific Ocean water in the Bering Strait and record high surface air temperatures across the entire Arctic region, said Rick Thoman, a climate specialist with the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. “The water and air temperatures are conspiring to not only reduce the extent of ice in all seasons but also leading to thinning of the ice that remains,” he said. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/05102021/polar-bear-science-research-arctic-sea-ice-climate-change A couple of changes are that the polar bears are moving onto land and also that they are inbreeding more.

"Studies show that the decline of sea ice, driven by climate change, is affecting the behavior and physical condition of polar bears, and making it harder for the animals to find enough food to survive. "

Oh dear such distortions. ;D ;D ;D ;D

"However, this claim of worse conditions in 2021 is not corroborated by reports from sea ice experts and ice charts for the Southern Beaufort this spring, where thick first year and multiyear ice was present from March through June. Ice didn’t begin to pull away from landfast ice to form patches of open water near the Canadian border until late April 2021 compared to early May in 2019 (as it did in 2016), as shown in the video and charts below. Moreover, the researchers oddly fail to mention that the presence of thin ice and open water in spring is essential for polar bear survival in the Southern Beaufort, a fact which has been documented and discussed in the scientific literature by their colleagues."

“The condition of the sea ice has deteriorated so much that it’s been three years since Atwood and his colleagues have been able to physically examine a bear. When you’re studying polar bears, you need polar bears to study, is Atwood’s mantra.”

"The ICN headline blames “loss of sea ice” for the on-going problem with doing polar bear research in the Southern Beaufort but the story includes data that shows more than half of the problem is fog, although they don’t say at what time of year fog is a problem (March or May?).

    The warmer Arctic waters have been linked to polar vortexes, unpredictable severe weather and heatwaves.

    That’s on a global front. But in Atwood’s much smaller world the warming means more fog. And more fog means less flying time, because visibility drops to near zero in the dense, sheet-white vapor.

    By his count, the number of suitable flying days has dropped by more than half over the last 20 years because of fog. "

"Here is a quote from my 2015 post from a paper by Smith and Rigby (1981:24) on the development of open water in eastern Beaufort, 1975-1979:

    “Some open water can be found in virtually all months somewhere in western Amundsen Gulf in the area of Cape Bathurst, Cape Parry, and Cape Kellet (Banks Island). Open water can appear as early as sometime in December, although it is not until April that a characteristic form to the polynya appears. …

    During each of the 5 years [of the study: 1975-1979] an open lead developed off the eastern side of Cape Bathurst sometime in January (Fig.14a). This coincided with the appearance of open water just north of Cape Parry in 4 of the 5 years.

    Open water remains in the general area, in some form, until late May to early June when, characteristically, the area between Cape Bathurst and Cape Kellett opens up to form a disintegration area. Until April, the size, shape, and location of open water is quite variable by month and by year (e. g. Fig. 14b).
TBC

Cont.
By April in most years, however, the polynya exhibits a more or less typical form (Fig. l4(c-f). With the advance of break-up, the open water between Cape Bathurst and Cape Kellett enlarges into Amundsen Gulf. In addition, open water develops northwards, along Banks Island, and westwards to Mackenzie Bay (see Fig. 14g. h).

The extent to which the shorelead polynya system in the Beaufort Sea is open is mainly dependent upon wind since this influences the movement of the Arctic pack. The coast was open to Mackenzie Bay in all five summers, and as far west as Barter Island in three.” [my bold]

"In that 2015 post I also quoted this paragraph from a 1981 paper by Stirling and colleagues (Stirling et al. 1981:54) that explains why these Southern Beaufort spring polynyas are so important to polar bears:

    “One useful approach is to ask what would happen if the polynya was not there? Obviously this is impossible to evaluate on an experimental basis, but by examining the consequences or natural seasonal variation, some useful insights can be gained. For example, the influence of rapidly changing ice conditions on the availability of open water, and consequently on populations of seals and polar bears, has been observed in the western Arctic. Apparently in response to severe ice conditions in the Beaufort Sea during winter 1973-74, and to a lesser degree in winter 1974-75, numbers of ringed and bearded seals dropped by about 50% and productivity by about 90%. Concomitantly, numbers and productivity of polar bears declined markedly because of the reduction in the abundance of their prey species. …If the shoreleads of the western Arctic or Hudson Bay ceased opening during winter and spring, the effect on marine mammals would be devastating.”[my bold]

Bottom line: The formation of patchy and/or thin sea ice in the Southern Beaufort close to shore in spring is a characteristic of the region known since the 1970s that is essential to the survival of seals and polar bears, not a dangerous anomaly that can be blamed on recent climate change. Not being able to land a 4,000 pound helicopter on spring ice whenever and where ever they prefer between early March and late May is a research constraint for scientists rather than a survival issue for polar bears. Furthermore, it is not apparent that sea ice conditions in 2021 were any “worse” that 2019 for either helicopters or polar bears although fog may have been worse in 2021.

References

Crockford, S.J. 2021. The State of the Polar Bear Report 2020. Global Warming Policy Foundation Report 48, London. pdf here.

Smith, M. and Rigby, B. 1981. Distribution of polynyas in the Canadian Arctic. In: Polynyas in the Canadian Arctic, Stirling, I. and Cleator, H. (eds), pg. 7-28. Canadian Wildlife Service, Occasional Paper No. 45. Ottawa.

Stirling, I, Cleator, H. and Smith, T.G. 1981. Marine mammals. In: Polynyas in the Canadian Arctic, Stirling, I. and Cleator, H. (eds), pg. 45-58. Canadian Wildlife Service, Occasional Paper No. 45. Ottawa.
"
https://polarbearscience.com/2021/10/07/alaska-polar-bear-researchers-claim-poor-sea-ice-limited-spring-field-work-in-2021-more-than-2019/


wrote on Oct 11^th, 2021 at 5:39pm:

A couple of changes are that the polar bears are moving onto land and also that they are inbreeding more.

The poley bears have always moved on land. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Put here so JM can respond. ;)

Less ice the polar bears can hunt on. More move onto the land, there is inbreeding and the numbers of bears left are not healthy.

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 11^th, 2021 at 6:09pm:

Less ice the polar bears can hunt on.

And yet you offer nothings proof. ;)


Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 11^th, 2021 at 6:09pm:

More move onto the land, there is inbreeding and the numbers of bears left are not healthy.

So before AGW there was no inbreeding? ;D ;D ;D

Why aren't they healthy? The get the seals who poke their noses through the polynyas.

Oh where is that picture of the poor old poley bear that has just pulled itself from the water? You know the one that was photoshopped onto a tiny ice floe.

lee wrote on Oct 11^th, 2021 at 7:04pm:

Oh where is that picture of the poor old poley bear that has just pulled itself from the water? You know the one that was photoshopped onto a tiny ice floe.

Don’t know if you’re trying to be funny and failing totally or you’re an absolute arsehole.

Are you six years old, lee?

lee wrote on Oct 11^th, 2021 at 7:04pm:

So before AGW there was no inbreeding?

struggling with the meaning of 'more' aren't you Lee ::)

perhaps you can ask your mammy to explain it to you

Ayn Marx wrote on Oct 11^th, 2021 at 7:07pm:

Don’t know if you’re trying to be funny and failing totally or you’re an absolute arsehole.

I'll go for B: Tony. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 11^th, 2021 at 7:07pm:

Are you six years old, lee?

No I can read. And think. ;D ;D ;D

John Smith wrote on Oct 11^th, 2021 at 7:19pm:

lee wrote Today at 5:04pm: So before AGW there was no inbreeding? struggling with the meaning of 'more' aren't you Lee

Poor petal. The statement was  "More move onto the land, there is inbreeding and the numbers of bears left are not healthy. "
So more move onto land. There is inbreeding. Nothing there about there being "more inbreeding".

I suggest you get a responsible adult to explain the intricacies of English.

I noticed after posting yesterday that JM's first post indeed said "A couple of changes are that the polar bears are moving onto land and also that they are inbreeding more. "

However that was merely JM being a trifle loose with the truth as is his wont.

"Polar bears in Svalbard archipelago are inbreeding due to sea ice loss"
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2289413-polar-bears-in-svalbard-archipelago-are-inbreeding-due-to-sea-ice-loss/

Nothing there about more inbreeding. The paper details data from 1995. But of course there is no historical record with which to compare.

Other papers disagree -

[url]New Paper: Body condition of Barents Sea polar bears increased since 2004 despite sea ice loss[/url]
"“Unexpectedly, body condition of female polar bears from the Barents Sea has increased after 2005, although sea ice has retreated by ∼50% since the late 1990s in the area, and the length of the ice-free season has increased by over 20 weeks between 1979 and 2013. These changes are also accompanied by winter sea ice retreat that is especially pronounced in the Barents Sea compared to other Arctic areas” [Lippold et al. 2019:988]"

https://polarbearscience.com/2020/05/05/new-paper-body-condition-of-barents-sea-polar-bears-increased-since-2004-despite-sea-ice-loss/

"Barents Sea polar bears thriving despite huge summer ice loss: spring research results are in"

https://polarbearscience.com/2021/07/01/barents-sea-polar-bears-thriving-despite-huge-summer-ice-loss-spring-research-results-are-in/
"In 2004, it was estimated to number between 1900 and 3600, which means that it is not threatened by the effects smaller populations may be impacted by, such as loss of genetic diversity or random demographic processes. Furthermore, genetic studies show that exchange between neighboring subpopulations to the west and east is large. Another aerial survey over Norwegian territories in the Barents Sea and in Svalbard was conducted in 2015, and the results indicate that the number of local bears had not changed much when compared to the results from the previous survey in 2004. The number of bears that live north in the pack ice in the fall most likely has been stable or even increased in the period between the surveys.

Lack of earlier estimates of good quality makes it impossible to say anything certain about historical trends, but various types of data indicate that the subpopulation grew rapidly following its protection and into the 1980s. Using demographic data, it has been suggested that the subpopulation also grew up to the turn of the century. Even though the loss of sea ice has been marked around Svalbard in recent years, and is expected to continue in the coming decades, the size of the subpopulation may still be below the carrying capacity. It is therefore possible that the subpopulation currently is still growing, or at least is stable, even though the availability of habitats has become poorer for much of the year."

https://www.mosj.no/en/fauna/marine/polar-bear.html

"Svalbard polar bears doing fine with much less sea ice say Norwegian biologists"

https://polarbearscience.com/2019/01/08/svalbard-polar-bears-doing-fine-with-much-less-sea-ice-say-norwegian-biologists/


Polar bears are marine mammals. They can swim long distances. They also take no notice of international borders.