Look at the flares!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1621860599494746112

Coronal mass ejections:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1622074682345127939

Good images.  I'm guessing you're maybe a
bit of an amateur astronomer?

No, tho would like to get an astronomical telescope and camera. Sort of interested, following a solar physicist, Dr Keith Strong, @drkstrong, on Twitter.

He shows some nice movies of the sun using various filters etc. Sun a bit quiet at the moment but we should see some fireworks again soon.

The sun affects us critters down here—a nice flare or CME will cook our computers nicely  ;D

AusGeoff wrote on Feb 6^th, 2023 at 8:38am:

Good images.  I'm guessing you're maybe a bit of an amateur astronomer?

Does Perth have a clear sky?

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 3h A GORGEOUS ERUPTION: A Small prominence erupts in quite a spectacular manner. Note how the solar plasma goes into bright emission and then fades as it cools. It also gets wafted around by the dynamics of the surround coronal structures.

[/quote]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1622318205829107712

Solar Cycle 25 update:

https://youtu.be/_Yo1d9Spurw

Wow!


https://twitter.com/i/status/1622428954509381632

They are not flares. More like straight-legged.

I will let the good Dr Strong decide what they are.

Keith Strong
@drkstrong
·
11h
THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up to 120. 2) No significant flares in the last day. X-ray background at B7 3) helioseismology shows two huge sunspot regions on the far side of the Sun 4) Lots of tiny sunspot appearing especially in the south. Will they amount to anything? Large spot in NE

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoR7SFlXoAEyLhR?format=jpg&name=small

Wow!


Keith Strong
@drkstrong
·
2h
CME WATCH - 2023.02.06: Just watch the SE/E limb (bottom left) it has almost continuous eruptions and not puny ones either. No sign of anything significant on the near side so this must be regions behind the limb. Hope they keep going when they rotate onto our side of the Sun.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1622785263490531328

Keith Strong
@drkstrong
·
54m
THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN at 120. 2) A lone C8 flare but a huge number of small C flares (see previous tweet) 3) A substantial region seems to be behind the SE limb according to STEREO. 4) Many new NOAA numbered regions. Particularly rapid growth in regions AR3213 and 3214. 5) 5 CMEs

(no interesting video)

Activity picking up again after a quiet spell.

WOW!


Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong · 3h SPECTACULAR M1 FLARE: It has been over a week since we had an M flare but this one was worth waiting for. It came from behind the east limb of the Sun (so was much larger than M1). Note its size compared to our puny Earth (inset). More likely to come as this comes over the E limb

https://twitter.com/i/status/1623064365040562205

MASSIVE flare, spectacular video!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1623158452972396544

Keith Strong
@drkstrong
·
7h
THE SUN TODAY: The Sun suddenly came alive! 1) SSN up to 140. 2) 5 M flares from 3 different sunspot regions. 26 C flares! 3) Two regions coming over E limb. 4) substantial growth in several regions while three significant new spot regions on the east limb. 5) 12 CMEs yesterday.
Keith Strong
@drkstrong
·

Sun continues being very active.

No GSM now and no mini ice age now. Then again, even if the sun was in a GSM there would not be a mini ice age caused by that, just some slowdown in the rate of warming for under one decade. All the weather reports of snow and cold posted in what is supposed to be the Environment MRB do not paint a picture of a mini ice age. LOL!

What happens on the sun matters to the critters on Earth and any in space.

The sun has already become so active that a Grand Solar Minimum now is ruled out. This means that once the La Nina conditions end and become ENSO neutral we can expect more high temperatures—2022 could become the hottest year so far. That is even without El Nino conditions.

Quote:

THE SUN IS GOING CRAZY! Four M flares today - 3 in the last 6 hours. The X-ray background has nearly risen to the M Flare level. We should expect some moderate to large M flares in the next day or two, perhaps even an X flare. Fingers crossed. Nothing to panic about.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoeW9-BWIAE5deV?format=jpg&name=small


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 6h FIND THE FLARES: Flares appear as short-lived flashes in the bright active regions. It might be easier to find which regions are not flaring.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1623436635290619906

Wow! A whole new observatory reveals new activity on the sun!

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/nasa-s-nustar-telescope-reveals-hidden-light-shows-on-the-sun

Quote:

7h CLOUDS FORM HIGH IN SOLAR ATMOSPHERE: These are not clouds as we know them (H2O) but clouds of cool plasma (50,000K). Coronal loops at over 1 MK lose their source of heat and condense down to lower temperatures and appear in this channel. They then drain down to the Sun's surface

https://twitter.com/i/status/1623673210712559618


@drkstrong


Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong · 7h It looks like a huge, evil spider on the east limb of the Sun, but of course, it isn't. It is a dynamic complex of magnetic loops interacting with each other until they eventually erupt. This the same region that has produced some of the series of M flares over the last two days.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1623676213687451661




Quote:

THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN still at 140. 2) Seven M flares in last 24 hours. 3) Substantial region behind the NE limb according to STEREO. 4) The M flares came from two sunspot regions - AR3213 and AR3217 (on the SE limb). More, large spot appearing on E limb. 5) Just 3 CMEs yesterday

This series of tweets by Dr K. Strong is absolutely fascinating. You see the sun as if we are just floating above it. Flares, spots, CMEs, plasma “cooling” to “just” 50,000°K (LOL!) all shown for our information.

I will keep this thread going until the sun winds down to the next solar minimum. (and maybe after, if the two observatories have interesting data on that phase of the suncycle.)

The sun provides 99.9% of the energy at the surface of the earth so is of vital importance to the critters on this planet!

To illustrate:


Quote:

A VIOLENT ERUPTION FROM THE EAST LIMB: Active region AR3217 just produced a spectacular eruption. It almost certainly produced a coronal mass ejection but fortunately for us it is too far east to affect the Earth. Note the plasma falling back the Sun is pushed away by an outflow.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1623632523078115329

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 5h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up 175. 2) Five more M flares in the last day plus a host of high C flares. 3) Still more to come over the NE limb. 4) The M flares are from 3 different areas - one of which was spotless! 5) 6 CMEs yesterday.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 4h THE WEATHER IS ABOUT TO CHANGE: This plot shows the NOAA probabilities for La Nina / ENSO Neutral / El Nino conditions in the Pacific. It predicts that in March the most likely condition will be ENSO neutral. That will persist until the Autumn when we will swap over to an El Nino

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FopvvPzXsAAQkDA?format=png&name=small

Do we get colder weather in winter during El Nino?

Update: Bureau of meteorology states that less cloud cover means colder conditions. Especially for eastern Australia.

No, warmer!

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 11h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up to 185. 2) We have had eight M flares in the last day. 3) Yet more regions over the NE limb (dashed white line). 4) The M flares came from four different regions. Will we get an X flare? Lots of small spots emerging but die quickly. 5) Ten CMEs yesterday.

This is not a quiet sun, this is not a sun in a GSM.

EVERYTHING Booby has posted in his toilet of a board is a lie.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 1h CME WATCH - 2023.02.11: Lots of action today, too much to comment on individually! Just the bigger ones: 1) large diffuse off the SW limb. 2) Bright CME off N. Pole. 3) Bright, narrow event off SW limb simultaneous the faint one off NE limb. 4. Very large, diffuse one off W. Limb

https://twitter.com/i/status/1624585566124744707

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 5h X1 FLARE - THE 7TH LARGEST FLARE SO FAR DURING SOLAR CYCLE 25 https://youtu.be/rVIhM46j3_4 via @YouTube

The video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVIhM46j3_4&t=1s&ab_channel=drkstrong

What is an XFlare?


Quote:

X flares are the most powerful category of flares, and can cause geomagnetic storms to affect Earth's magnetic field with the potential to damage satellites, communications equipment and even the power grid. The flare was the most powerful seen since at least October. NASA/SDO An X1 flare like this one, though, is at the low end of the X-scale. Sun Unleashes Intense X-Class Solar Flare, With More Blasts Ex… www.cnet.com/science/space/sun-unleashes-intense-x-class-solar-flare-with-more-blasts-expected/ www.cnet.com/science/space/sun-unleashes-intense-x-class-solar-flare-with-mo…

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 15h X FLARE! Did I just mention 3 hours ago something about an X flare?  Well, an X1 happened just minutes after I posted the latest SUN TODAY. It was from sunspot region AR3217 in the SE. This is the 13th X flare of SC25 and by coincidence the 13th biggest flare of the cycle so far.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1624459263518154752

Someone got nervous:

Quote:

[] 56m Replying to @drkstrong and @BlankName5000 Whoa, that is a big one. Earth facing?

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 6h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN at 185. 2) X flare! (see earlier tweets) plus 3 M flares & high Cs. 3) Five magnetic regions on the far side of the Sun. How many have spots? 4) Most of the activity has come from AR3217 in the SE but a lone M1 flare from the west limb. 5) 11 CMEs yesterday.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 6h TORTURED MAGN[E]TIC LOOPS: Note these large-scale loops (see inset) on the NE limb of the Sun. They are continuously changing. That process is called "magnetic reconnection" and it releases the energy stored in the magnetic fields by the twisting and stretching of the Sun's dynamics

https://twitter.com/i/status/1624756060425707528

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 3h CME WATCH - 2023.02.12: The CMEs at the beginning of the movie, you saw at the end of yesterday's post (it's a 2-day movie). Most of the rest of the time there is a steady out-flow from all round the disk, except a small CME along the streamer in the southwest.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1624952310727168000

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 4h THE SUN TODAY: Activity winding down? 1) SS[N] @ 190. 2) 3 M flares while X-ray background falls to C3 level. 3) Nothing prominent over the east limb. 4) M flares from three different regions. Big prominence in SE limb. New region in NE growing rapidly. 5) Only five CMEs yesterday.

Quote:

Dr. Ryan French@RyanJFrench Absolutely insane! Yesterday's X1.1 class #SolarFlare was observed in high resolution by the NASA IRIS mission. IRIS observes with a small field-of-view, so catching the largest flares is rare. But just look at this, I haven't seen a flare observation this cool in a long time. ☀️

https://twitter.com/i/status/1624776081835429889

So, that flare was big stuff! Glad we weren’t in the way!



Quote:

Dr. Ryan French @RyanJFrench For anyone interested, the data is here. Congrats to the IRIS science planners for catching this one! https://lmsal.com/hek/hcr?cmd=view-event&event-id=ivo%3A%2F%2Fsot.lmsal.com%2FVOEvent%23VOEvent_IRIS_20230211_150427_3660259533_2023-02-11T15%3A04%3A272023-02-11T15%3A04%3A27.xml

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 18m CME WATCH - 2023.02.13: Only two interesting CME's in the last day. The first is off the SW limb - you can see the streamer brighten just before the eruption. The second is directly off the east limb. It is larger and faster than the first. Neither pose a threat to the Earth.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1625322434516623361

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 1h A PROMINENCE TRIES TO ERUPT: This is a 24-hour movie where this huge prominence on the northeast limb gets moved around by the dynamics of the Sun's magnetic field, becomes unstable, and tries to erupt but eventually fails and ignominiously falls back onto the photosphere.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1625309480551325698

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 3h THE SUN TODAY: Some data not available. 1) SSN up to 195. 2) Three M flares in last 24 hours. 4) The flares were from 2 different regions - see previous tweet for first video of the long-duration flare on the NW limb. Note two high latitude regions (see earlier tweet). 5) 9 CMEs.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 3h LONG DURATION FLARE: An M3 flare started at about 12:00 UT today and an hour later is still above M flare threshold! It is likely from sunspot region AR3214 which is currently rotating off the visible Sun over the NW limb. It may have been somewhat larger due to limb occultation.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1625487311323680772

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 10h HIGH LATITUDE REGIONS: 2 high-latitude regions have appeared on the Sun. The one in the N. hemisphere had sufficient spots for NOAA to number it AR3224. It was at about +38 degrees! The one in the South was at -35 degrees but is a reverse polarity region. Signs of SC26 starting?

“Signs of SC26 starting?” LOLOLOLOL! Strong knows about the many many crap theories and conman spiels about the sun. “Reverse polarity” is a neat dig at Zharkova and her zany theory re the sun, ice age etc.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 1h LARGE SUNSPOT GROUP EMERGING: This video shows the initial emergence and rapid growth of sunspot region AR3226 in the NE part of the Sun. Compare its initial tiny spots to the Earth with its current size which the main spot alone can contain 5 Earths!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1625717812751659008


I trust nobody on OzPolitic now believes that the sun is in a GSM? LOL, stupid idea but profitable for some! An active sun and oceans warmed by three La Ninas on the trot—the next ENSO neutral condition is going to bring cruel heat!

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 3h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN dropped to 150. 2) X-ray background at C2. 3 M flares and a host of low C flares. 3) Possible new regions behind E limb. 4) Two of the M flares came from AR3213 over the west limb. Several tiny new spot regions. 5) 4 CMEs yesterday.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 20m CME WATCH - 2023.02.15: It starts with the spectacular CME off the east limb (left) that we saw yesterday. Then two near simultaneous faint CMEs - one off the SW limb and the other off the east limb. Looks as if the streamer in the SW is about to erupt.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1626036661032214528

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 10h GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS: A weak geomagnetic storm is currently impacting the Earth. It is a G1 (Kp=5) event whose main impact will be some nice aurora at high latitudes, unless it intensifies. Stay tuned for any developments. Solar wind at about 450 km/s.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpE9Q7LWAAECiH0?format=png&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong LARGE SUNSPOT COMING OVER NE LIMB. It is possibly the return of sunspot region AR3201. It has already produced some flaring.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpE_125WIAYyhym?format=png&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 7h CME WATCH - 2023.02.16: As predicted yesterday the streamer in the SW erupted to produce a large, slow CME but likely too far south to be affecting the Earth. Then there was a very fast CME off the NW limb. Lastly a slow, faint one off the NE limb.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1626441498504880132

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong THE SUN TODAY: 1) Sunspot number drops to 90. 2) Two C9 flares both long duration events plus a host of smaller C flares 3) STEREO reports that more active regions to come both NE and SE 4) Sunspot groups generally decaying. New region (or is it 2?) on NE limb 5) 8 CMEs yesterday

And:


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 6h Gorgeous Loop Arcade Forms Long-Duration Event. An LDE C9 flare occurred in sunspot group AR3223 yesterday at about 12:00 UT. An LDE usually implies a coronal mass ejection. The arcade forms as the disrupted coronal fields blown open by the CME reconnect releasing energy.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1626564145461051392

and:


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong C9 LDE FLARE (PART 2): A second similar event to the first LDE (see previous tweet) occurred on the NE limb. However, this flare is seen from the side so gives us a different perspective. Note how high the arcade grows compared to the Earth (inset). You can also see the eruption.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1626566318047612930

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 37m LARGEST FLARE IN A DECADE! We just had an X2.28 flare making it not only the largest flare so far this cycle but the largest flare since 29th October 2013 (near the peak of SC24). It occurred on the NE limb from sunspot region AR3229 and peaked at 20:22 UT on Friday 17th February

https://twitter.com/i/status/1626767422496681985


Then


Quote:

CORRECTION: This isn't the largest flare in a decade (see earlier tweet). I forgot that there were two large X flares in September 2017. So, it was the largest flare in 6 years. SC25 has produced 14 X flares compared to just 9 by the same stage of SC24. Stay tuned for more flares

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 23m THE CME FROM THE X FLARE: A few minutes after the X flare, a CME from the event appeared in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view showing what an energetic event this was. Fortunately, it is too far east to affect the Earth significantly. Warning: in a week or so that wont be the case!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1626771477419663360


—In a week or so the CME might hit Earth? Oh dear, that can’t be good!

Well, one of the flares did take out some communications already!


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 4m FLARE KNOCKS OUT RADIO COMMUNICATIONS: Radio communications below 5 MHz were knocked out by the X2.28 flare (see earlier tweets) over a large part of western N. and S. America and the Pacific Ocean.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpOU0IVX0AArE1i?format=png&name=small

X3 flare on 17 Feb 2023. Largest Xflare in six years. NOT a quiet sun, NOT a GSM!

SC25 has produced 14 X flares compared to just 9 by the same stage of SC24. Stay tuned for more flares—Dr K. Strong

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmYsou2s9NQ&ab_channel=drkstrong

Sun continues active. Idiots on Twitter still natter of a GSM but even these nutcases seem to be getting the idea that the sun might be awake and active, if not super active, in SC25  ;D



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 6h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up to 120. 2) Long duration X2 flare - 18 hours and still burning! No other significant flares 3) Perhaps more to come over SE limb 4) The X flare was from sunspot region AR3229 (see earlier tweets). New large sunspot coming over SE limb. 5) 6 CMEs yesterday

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 6h CORONAL HOLE ALERT: There is a coronal hole (the dark area near Sun center) that is rotating into the zone that is well connected to the Earth. Coronal holes produce high-speed solar wind that can cause geomagnetic storms. but this is small enough that it should not be a problem.

There was a bigger one a few weeks ago, no big problems arising tho some great auroras in NH.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 15m 24 hours and the X flare site is still glowing. X-ray background not returned to base level yet

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpRd3-EXgAAan41?format=png&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 6h A BEAUTIFUL JET:  The active region near the NE limb (AR3229) just produce this elegant jet of plasma high into the solar corona. The temperature of this glowing plasma is about 50,000K which is comparatively cool for the corona! Not how high it goes using the earth as a measure.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1626933269500395521

50,000°K is “cool”  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 3h CME WATCH - 2023.02.18: There are 3 spectacular coronal mass ejections off the east limb. A faint one off the south pole (polar crown filament erupting)? Then right at the end of the video it seems that the coronal streamers off the SW limb are about to erupt.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1627128234079838208

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong AURORA ALERT: Solar wind models of the coronal mass ejection from the X2 flare suggest that tomorrow (20th) will produce some bright aurora at high latitudes. The models show the western edge of the CME just brushing by the Earth at about 14:00 UT.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpU8fI8XsAAz48k?format=jpg&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong THE SUN TODAY: 1) SNN still at 120. 2) X-ray background down to C1 level. Three medium class C flares. 3) Perhaps something is coming over the NE limb in a day or two. 4) All the C flares were from AR3229 in the NW. A tiny new spot emerged in the SE (white). 5) 10 CMEs yesterday.

Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong · 6h ANOTHER HUGE JET: Sunspot region AR3229 produced another spectacular coronal jet but this time much larger than the last. The region is much further onto the solar disk so any height structured is more foreshortened. This jet soars out of the AIA field of view it gets so high.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1627300433873055744


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 6h 100,000 MPH! The long, dark structure is a filament on the disk of the Sun. It starts to get active and sends a pulse of plasma along its length. I estimate the speed of that flow to have been over 100,000 mph (170,000 km/h)!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1627303324176289793

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 5h NEW SPOTS EMERGING: A group (perhaps 2) of tiny spots emerging and growing rapidly over the last day. It started as a group of 2 tiny pores but then another group appear to their SE and form much larger spots. They may continue to grow in the next day or two into a bigger region.

Plenty of life in this sun. No GSM this cycle, that is for sure!

Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong · 5h CME WATCH - 2023.02.19: I am using the LASCO C2 and C3 fields of view today because the scale of the events is so large. I forecasted that the SW stream was going to erupt (see earlier tweet) and it did

https://twitter.com/i/status/1627486697033199616

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong UNTWISTING MAGNETIC FEILDS: A huge prominence on the west limb slowly untwists as it erupts. Note its size compared to our Earth. This explains at least one of the two CMEs off the west limb. They were large and may affect the Earth in a couple of days.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1627493060207599621

Amazing footages of our sun

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 1h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN leaps up to 165. 2) A host of small to moderate C flares. 3) STEREO A shows three potential new spot regions behind the E limb 4) The 4 big C flares were from 4 different regions. Lots of tiny spots emerging, will they amount to anything? 5) 6 CMEs yesterday

165 sunspots.  Not a GSM then. Dubyne LIED!

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong TRANS-EQUATORIAL LOOPS: This arcade of magnetic loops straddle the Sun's equator on the west limb. You could lay 25 Earths along them. This is seen at a temperature of about 2.5 MK - it has to be that hot for the pressure in the loops to be able to support such a large structure.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpZiUU0XsAAaSKu?format=png&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong NEW REGION PRODUCES IMPULSIVE FLARE: The new spot region on the NE limb produced a very impulsive M4 flare about 3 hours ago. The LDE X flare the other day lasted for about 24 hours, this flare lasted barely 15 minutes. Impulsive flares are caused by compact, dense flare kernels.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1627738268367290368

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 2h CME WATCH - 2023.02.20: Two main areas of CME activity. The most spectacular events seem to be in the SW with a series of large CMES. But there is some significant outflow from the NE and right at the end a large event. Compare their size with the white solar disk in the middle.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1627834479032033281

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 43m THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN down to 120 (note yesterday's value was downgraded). 2) 2 M flares & some moderate to high level C flares. 3) Still some promise of two new regions behind the E limb. 4) Most of the activity seems to be coming from AR3234 on the NE limb. 5) 9 CMEs yesterday.

Active sun! No GSM!

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 3h AN EVEN BIGGER FLARE: The new region on the NE limb (AR3234) just produced another impulsive flare. This time it was an M5 event. Is the region building to another X flare in the coming days? Quite possibly. Only time will tell, stay tuned.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1628058644414693382

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 1h CME WATCH - 2023.02.21: The bright streamer in the NE erupts 4 times, presumably associated with the large M flares we have observed there today. There is a smaller, fainter CME in the NW and a fairly violent one in the SW towards the end.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1628222251601387521

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 4h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN drops to about 100 as more regions disappear over the W limb. 2) Two M flares in the last day, with lots of C flares, including some moderate to high events. 3) More regions behind the E limb. 4) Most of the activity coming from AR3234 but AR3230 is growing.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong CORONAL HOLE ALERT: We have 2 large coronal holes on the Sun currently. The one near the south pole of the Sun is probably not a threat to give us a geomagnetic storm as it is too far south. The one on the equator is too far east, but will soon move into a more favorable position

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpktzZ3WcAEo82K?format=jpg&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 3h GROWING SUNSPOT REGION:  Active region AR3230 in the SE quadrant of the Sun has surprising started to regrow. It started off as a single large spot which is usually the remnants of a mature region, but in the last day it has developed new spots in the trailer part of the region.

https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1628399626452598784/pu/img/HuwR_j2SsfMgEtIY?format=jpg&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 5h NOTICE A PATTERN? We have had 4 M flares in 2 days. The timing between them is spookily similar - just a few minutes under 9 hours. Coincidence? Possibly. Time for more energy to build up? Possibly. Assuming that the rate does not change, the next big flare will be at 23:00 U.T.!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fpl4cdzWAAA5vm4?format=jpg&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong A gorgeous picture of our Sun taken in H-alpha (a red line in the optical spectrum) - shows the relatively cool part of the solar atmosphere.  The bright areas on the limb are prominences, compare with my earlier tweet.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpmHfzQWIAY_II2?format=jpg&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong ·1h CME WATCH - 2023.02.22: There is a beautiful slow and elegant CME off the south pole, followed by a rapid bright CME off the NE limb. The video is short so there may be some missing data.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1628561397045944321

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 11h NOTICE A PATTERN? We have had 4 M flares in 2 days. The timing between them is spookily similar - just a few minutes under 9 hours. Coincidence? Possibly. Time for more energy to build up? Possibly. Assuming that the rate does not change, the next big flare will be at 23:00 U.T.!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fpl4cdzWAAA5vm4?format=jpg&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 27m GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A weak G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) happened over night as the solar wind speed topped 550 km/s. This was likely due to the solar wind from the edge of that southerly coronal hole clipping the Earth (see earlier tweet).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FppbJQxXgAIs1SN?format=jpg&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 4h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up to 105. 2) 3 M flares in the last day plus moderate Cs. 3) Promise of more spots to come over E limb, but mainly been spotless plage of late. 4) AR3234 has been the most active but new region ahead of is growing rapidly. Could get some big flares from it

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpqYSmrWYAAMCsp?format=jpg&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong PERSISTANCE: Here is a prominence that will just not go away. This two-day movie shows it continuously changing but it has not erupted. The thing of note is at the southern-most end of the structure, it gets unusually dark (dense) that is usually a tell of an impending eruption.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1628786456792629249

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 5h THE SUN TODAY:  1) SSN up to 120. 2) X-Rays: 5 moderate C flares, background falling to C1. 3) Active area behind SE limb - more scattered plage or spots? 4) The flares are from AR3235 and 3236). [It is] These rapidly growing regions that produce flares, not the big complex spot regions.

120 sunspots—the sun is definitely not in a GSM.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong · 8m EXPLOSIVE M FLARE: Sunspot region AR3229 in the NW of the Sun produced an M flare just acouple of hours ago. It caused a huge eruption of plasma from the Sun. Note the bright, hot, flare material but also a dark component (cooler and denser) to the east from the erupting filament

https://twitter.com/i/status/1629259276152610816

Scary!


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 44m CME WATCH - 2023.02.24: Using the SOHO LASCO C3 instrument (larger field of view) because the two events today were very large scale and may qualify as a halo event (one heading for Earth). Unfortunately, we cannot tell from this data alone whether it is heading for Earth or away

https://twitter.com/i/status/1629316035357581312

Another view of this mornings eruption:


Quote:

SpaceWeatherNews@SunWeatherMan Gorgeous solar eruption today. A trillion tons of plasma ripped away from the sun this afternoon. Luckily, it is aimed northward and not aimed at earth.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1629242923723427840

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 5h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up to 140. 2) Two M flares yesterday and a C8 earlier today. 3) Still more activity behind the SE limb but no spots to date. 4) The M flares were from AR3229 and 3235. Some nice prominences. 5) 8 CMEs yesterday (see earlier tweets).

There are still some halfwits on Twitter wittering on about a GSM but I think reality—spread enthusiastically by me—has taken over.

A GSM is the sun with very few sunspots—and consequent flares—for an extended period. 140 is not “very few!”

So no GSM and an extended La Nina is giving way to ENSO neutral conditions. The NH summer this year will be a hot one.

A sign of what critters can expect:


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 48m The DC metro area just more than doubled its snowfall total for the 2022/23 winter season. We must be over half an inch by now! The cherry blossoms will likely be over before the annual Cherry Blossom Festival! Snow drops, crocus, daffodils, forsythia, & pear blossoms are all out

VERY early spring in DC! Likewise Japanese cherry trees have been blossoming earlier and earlier as the globe warmed.

Critters better take heed!

Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong A BIG FLARE IN PROGRESS: Sunspot region AR3229 on the NE limb is emitting a large flare, at this time it is an M5 event and still rising. This is the same region that gave us the long-duration M4 yesterday.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 40m M6 FLARE: The flare in AR3229 (see earlier tweet) topped out at an M6 event peaking at 19:44 UT. It started rising at about 18:30 UT and has already gone on for over 2 hours, making it another long-duration event with an almost certain CME associated with it.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1629584543928729600

A flare going on for over two hours: this is not a quiet sun, not a sun in a GSM!



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 1h CME WATCH - 2023.02.25: There are two massive CMEs off the NW limb; the first (about halfway through the movie was the M4 flare from yesterday and the second (near the end with all the "snow") is today's M6 proton event - another Long Duration Event as it has gone on for 6 hours.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1629665944468373506

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong PROTON STORM: A Low-level proton storm (S1) is hitting the Earth from the earlier M flare (see previous [posts] first proton storm for quite a while.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp2493NXwAAppM-?format=png&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 4h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN still at 140. 2) 2 M flares - almost an exact repeat of yesterday! 3) There seems to be a lot of activity behind the E limb but show me spots 4) The M1 was from AR3236 while AR3229 produced another long duration M6. 5) 7 CMEs yesterday (see earlier tweets)

Sun continues fairly active. Not the most active sun but clearly not in a GSM. What will SC26 do? (Almost impossible to predict but I think will continue to increase in activity.)


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 2h TOMORROW EARTH COULD BE HIT BE A SOLAR STORM! The NOAA models predict that we will be hit by the CME (see earlier tweets) from yesterday's M6 flare. They are predicting solar wind velocities of over 700 km/s. It will likely be a G2 (moderate, Kp=6) geomagnetic storm. Stay tuned.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp5oLHUXgAEODed?format=jpg&name=small

We have been hit by two solar storms already that had solar wind velocities of 500-550KPS so this one will be a bit stronger. Some communications disrupted as well as flights over the poles.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 2h Meanwhile the proton storm from the M6 event continues to disrupt polar radio communications in the polar regions. It has lasted nearly a whole day so far. However, it is showing signs of decaying slowly.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 3h GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS: As NOAA predicted (see earlier tweet) we are in a weak geomagnetic storm - a G1 event (Kp=5). However, it is earlier than they thought. They said it could reach G2 (Kp=6) tomorrow. We'll wait and see. :)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp7QaCIXsAUL73d?format=png&name=small

A more active sun already affecting some communications.

We are nowhere near the peak of the cycle! Hold on to your hats! This ACTIVE sun could cause surprises and mayhem yet!

Storm seems to be picking up speed!


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 33m GEOMAGNETIC STORM INTENSITY INCREASING: We are now at G2 Level (Moderate; Kp=6). Strong Aurora at high latitudes (>55deg.) and could reach US/ Canada border; may cause electrical grid voltage alarms near pole; & poor HF radio propagation at high latitudes. Forecasted to reach G3.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp8J-MVXoAMeJba?format=jpg&name=small

Those living in. north of NH are in for a big aurora!

Update:

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 2h SOLAR STORM STRENGTHENS YET MORE. We are experiencing a strong geomagnetic storm (G3; Kp>6). Solar wind speed >600 km/s. Aurora likely visible south of the Canadian border. Spacecraft may suffer pointing and charging problems. Grid voltages will fluctuate esp. at higher latitudes

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp9yzblWIAEhnfX?format=png&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong CME WATCH - 2023.02.26: Note how the "snow" from the proton event on the image changes with time. There is a sudden increase immediately after the CME leaves (fast particles - near speed of light) but goes on only decreasing slowly as the slower particles arrive much later.

Video:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1630036286835765249

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 2h SLOW BURN? There are many different types of flares. Impulsive flares are gone in a flash (literally). Most flares start with an explosion and then decay slowly away. This flare is odd in that it brightens over 6 hours & has only reached C5 level. Dont recall one like this before

https://twitter.com/i/status/1630158701225992192




Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong THE SUN TODAY: 1) SNN up again to 150. 2) Only one C flare in last 24 hours. 3) Lots of activity on the East limb but none of it looks strong. 4) The C flare came from sunspot region AR3234 (see previous tweet). A couple of new small regions emerging (white). 5) 5 CMEs yesterday.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp-DVL-WcAMF60S?format=jpg&name=small

Sunspots are not going away leaving a blank Sun, are they?

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 10h Aurora visible in the UK last night as a result of the Geomagnetic storm. It has now strengthened to Kp=7.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp-bGJlWwAEqvb0?format=jpg&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 45m The Geomagnetic Storm carries on but has waned to a G2 event. The ferocity of the storm was due to two simultaneous factors: the influence of that coronal hole (see earlier tweet) and the arrival of the CME from the M6 even a couple of days ago (see various previous tweets).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqBQNuHWIAIj_3h?format=png&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 34m CME WATCH - 2023.02.27: The white disk in the middle is the size of the visible Sun. A lot of activity off of both poles and a smallish event off the west limb towards the end.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1630395460115365891

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 7h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN down as we lose sight of some regions over the W limb 2) No significant flares in the last day. Lots of low C flares (which NOAA does not bother to count!) 3) Only 1 promising region behind NE limb. 4) Large spot coming over the NE limb. 5) 11 CMEs yesterday

Sunspot numbers

Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong 9h The Average Sunspot Number for February 2023 works out to be about 125. The is the second highest since September 2014. The highest was last month at 144.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqDiiccWAAA9cqr?format=png&name=small

So the sun is definitely not in a GSM! We will have to face the problem of AGW after all!

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 12h A REAL VORTEX:  Unlike the over-hyped "solar polar vortex" from a couple of weeks ago, let's take a look at a real one. This was seen on the west limb yesterday. We are looking at a prominence edge-on. Its magnetic field starts to unravel and you can clearly see the twist in it.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1630511437855567872



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 12h HUGE PROMINENCE ERUPTION: The Sun produced prominence eruption this morning (see size relative to Earth) off the Southeast limb near the S pole of the Sun. Some of the emission reached to the edge of the SDO AIA instrument's field of view. However much of if fell back to the Sun.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1630508642284781570



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 12h More Aurora last night - the geomagnetic storm has now lasted over 30 hours and still is at G2 (kp=6) level.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqCftOEWwAE1ch_?format=png&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong THE M8.6 FLARE: The large, bright X-ray loop at the beginning of the movie is left over from an earlier C flare. The main event starts at the northeastern foot point of that loop, and it looks as though a CME was launched and from an area that potentially geoeffective. Stay tuned

https://twitter.com/i/status/1630667049130139648


So the remnants of the CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) that did not fall back to the sun could hit us. Guess communications could be hit.

Quite the active sun!

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 1h Spitting Image: Watch this tiny sunspot region emerge and start to interact with the surrounding magnetic fields. It produces a series of violent jets, some of which go over 100,000 km into the corona. If this continues to grow at this rate it will become a major sunspot region.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1630863167898238978



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong CORONAL HOLE ALERT: There is a large coronal hole (dark area) approaching Sun center in the northern hemisphere. Coronal holes are the source of high-speed solar wind streams that can cause geomagnetic storms. This one is low enough latitude that it may impact Earth in a few days

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqH5VtjWIAE9j7C?format=jpg&name=small

A second solar event that could impact here.

Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong · 1h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN down to 95. 2) two M flares and some C flares. 3) Looks like some substantial regions behind the NE limb. 4) Two regions produced all the flaring; AR3234 produced the M9 yesterday but surprisingly the new little region in the SE accounted for 3 of the events

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 1h FOUR LARGE SPOTS APPEAR OVER THE NORTHEAST LIMB. The two most northerly seem to be the return of regions 3208 and 3209. The other two must have grown up on the far side of the Sun. At least three of the leading sunspots are larger than the Earth.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqLoBH0X0AAHfaS?format=png&name=small


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 1h CME WATCH - 2023.03.01:  There seems to be coronal mass ejections going off every which way! See if you can count them all. According to the quick-look catalog there were 26. Did you get them all? No? Suggest you run the movie at least 4 times and count each quadrant separately.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1631117328648683521

TWENTY SIX Coronal Mass Ejections!

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 3h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SNN still at 100. 2) Only 2 significant flares in the last day. X-ray background up to C2 level 3) Three significant looking regions on/behind the East limb. 4) Losing several regions over the W limb while some new one appearing in the east. 5) 10 CMEs yesterday

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 7h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up to 115. 2) Two M flares and a couple of hi-Cs. 3) Still seems to be something coming over the SE limb 4) Both M flares were from AR3234 which is about to disappear over the W limb. New large spot on SE limb 5) 6 CMEs yesterday. Sun's tilt at maximum south

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 1h X FLARE! Sunspot region AR3234 produced an X2.07 flare on the NW limb of the Sun just a few minutes ago. That is the 3rd largest flare this solar cycle and the 6th X flare so far in 2023. Video of the flare and associated CME to follow as soon as the data is available.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 15m SOLAR FLARE CAUSES RADIO BLACKOUT: The X2 flare caused a R3 (strong) level radio blackout warning from NOAA. It affected most of north and south America with HF blackouts and degradation of navigation signals.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqUhpZvXgAEQvYf?format=png&name=900x900

Things are hotting up as we move towards the peak of the cycle—this is normal.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 8h CME WATCH - 2023.03.02: Forgot to post this last night - sorry. Classic slow CME off the southeast limb near the end of the video, shortly followed by one off the NW. Connected - unlikely.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1631638293807783938

You can see what a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) does in the video in the link above.


Sorry—can’t post the videos directly, the format is not supported by this board.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 4h X2 FLARE CAUSES RADIO BLACKOUTS ACROSS N & S AMERICA https://youtu.be/0_wtQdOeZn4 via @YouTube

Video:
https://youtu.be/0_wtQdOeZn4

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 1h CME WATCH - 2023.03.03: The west limb (right) is producing some spectacular CMEs - it seems almost continuously. But note the unusually slow CME  off the SE limb. Also, some faint ones from the SW and NE quadrants.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1631845055899004929

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up to 120. 2) X2 flare from AR3234 (see previous tweets) and an M1 from AR3243. 3) Helioseismology shows large areas of magnetic disturbance on the far side of the Sun but how much of it is plage or sunspots? 4) Most Regions seem stable. 5) 13 CMEs yesterday

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 6h A GROWING SUNSPOT REGION:  Many violent eruptions from this new sunspot region near the northeast limb. As new magnetic field emerges from below the surface of the Sun it interacts with the existing fields causing flares. I guess that is why they are often called Active Regions!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1632051449965207552

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 58m CME WATCH - 2023.03.04: Lots of missing LASCO C2 data so primarily using C3. Three nice "bubble" CMEs off the west (right) limb. Two slow-mo CME's off the SE and east limbs respectively.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1632196575505047554

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 6h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SNN jumps to 160. 2) Three M flares in last day. 3) New emission on the southeast limb. 4) New large sunspot on northeastern limb. AR3234 may have set over the west limb but still producing flares. The real intensity is probably much larger. 5) 10 CMEs yesterday

Developments today:


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong M FLARE! A very impulsive M5 flare just occurred near the NW limb in sunspot region AR3243 peaking at 21:36 UT. The large loops in the background over the west limb are the impressive structures of AR3234 that gave us so many big flares.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1632555776731496450



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 4h CME WATCH - 2023.03.05: We start with a very spectacular CME off the W limb - could it affect the Earth? Possibly in a day or so. Another thin bright CME off the SE limb adjacent to the bright streamer. Then a fainter one off the west limb again (the M flare - see earlier tweet).

https://twitter.com/i/status/1632556673981202432

So radio communications and navigation signals may again suffer problems/breakdowns thanks to our active sun.

HA!


Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong · 50m THE SUN TODAY:  1) SSN soars to over 200, for only the second time this cycle. 2) Five M flares in last day. 3) New region coming over the SE limb. 4) The M flares came from four different regions. Lots of tiny spot regions emerging - will they amount to anything? 5) Only 4 CMEs.

Over 200 sunspots!

CMEs today:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1632916226736365569

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 9h THE SUN TODAY: 1)  SNN drops as some regions set over west limb. 2) One M flare and a few Cs. Two newly numbered sunspot regions: AR3247 / 48. 3) More regions behind both NE and SE limbs. 4) The M flare was from AR3242; the 3 C flares from scattered regions. 5) 8 CMEs yesterday.

SSN should increase soon as the new regions come into view.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 1h THE SUN TODAY 2023.03.07: Some spectacular events early on, then a long quiet patch followed by a violent eruption off the northwest limb (upper right).

https://twitter.com/i/status/1633313086017875968



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong DOUBLE TROUBLE: The cause of the violent coronal mass ejection (see last tweet) is now clear here. There is a filament eruption in the southern part of the region followed by a second, smaller one further north. Note the size of the event compared to the Earth (top left corner).

https://twitter.com/i/status/1633315827033178112

The sun seems more active than just the number of sunspots seems to indicate? Like, when was the last time when auroras were visible from the Ausr. mainland?

Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong THE SUN TODAY:  1) SSN down again to 150. 2) Just had an M1 flare from sunspot group AR3242, otherwise all's quiet. 3) New region behind NE limb. 4) New sunspot group coming over NE limb does not look strong. Lots of small regions popping up briefly. 5) Only six CMEs yesterday.

Seems like lots of fluctuations, burst of energy (sunspots, flares, CMEs) then sunspot number etc reduce for a while.

Some fools still wedded to the idea of a GSM now marked the first retreat from 200+ spots as the peak. Nope, peak is in later half of 2025, still 2 years to go to the peak of SC25! This is ideology trying to trump observation, willing the sun to reduce the number of spots. Fluctuations don’t matter.

Not that SC25, the current Solar Cycle, is going to have 1000 sunspots at peak or anything like that. The number of spots, flares & CMEs will be higher than at the peak of SC24 is all. Maybe 300 sunspots at peak? (SA24 had 220 spots at peak.)

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 9h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN stable at about 150. 2) 2 M flares plus a host of low-level C flares 3) Seems yet more active regions behind the NE limb. 4) The M flares came from regions AR3242 and AR3245 respectively. Lots of tiny spot regions coming and going quickly 5) 7 CMEs yesterday

CMEs were quiet yesterday

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 7h CME WATCH - 2023.03.09: All is relatively quiet with a few minor CMEs  from various areas of the Sun but then near the end there is a massive explosion off the entire west limb!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1634018957958021120

Huge ejection—hope it don’t hit us!



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 7h Here comes Mercury! the bright object in the bottom right (SW) is Mercury making its way behind the Sun from being a morning star to becoming an evening star. Remember last month Saturn passed behind the Sun but it moved left to right but Mercury is moving the other way! Why?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fq0zpigXoAESaTk?format=jpg&name=small

When will the maximum of SC25 be? What will the sunspot count be?

Various ways of estimating this are presented by Dr K Strong, none are really good tho  ;D


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 6h SOLAR CYCLE 25 PREDICTIONS - 2023.02 https://youtu.be/xy6aIQCc11g via @YouTube

https://youtu.be/xy6aIQCc11g

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong CME WATCH - 2023.03.10: A very active couple of days. It starts with the huge CME we saw late yesterday off the west limb, followed by a couple of minor ones off the SW and NE limbs respectively. A large bubble CME off the W limb followed by another huge event off the SW limb.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1634351155131174914



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 18h TWO-RIBBON FLARE: The source of that large CME was a two-ribbon flare in the SW part of the Sun. The dark band across the image is a dense, cool (50K) filament above the solar surface. It becomes active and erupts. In doing so, it leaves two bright ribbons that slowly spread.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1634354608926588929



Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong · 18h THE 2-RIBBON FLARE - PART 2:  The bright ribbons are the foot points of an arcade of magnetic loops formed as the original coronal loops that were blown open by the CME reconnect and conduct heat towards the solar surface. You can see the new loops in this hotter channel (2.4MK).

https://twitter.com/i/status/1634356272282718208

Quote:

THE SUN TODAY: Getting very quiet! 1) SSN at 150. 2) Only 3 mid-level C flares. 3) Helioseismology shows 7 large regions on the far side of the sun (colors). 4) Regions decaying slowly and only a few small spots appearing. 5) Six CMEs yesterday.

Hmmm


Quote:

Space Weather Watch@spacewxwatch CME UPDATE: Yesterday, the Sun launched a filament eruption off the western limb resulting in a wide CME which is expected to graze Earth. Given the complexity of the eruption, there's quite a bit of uncertainty in timing; NOAA and NASA simulations of the event agree about the grazing aspect of the CME but have not yet come to a consensus about the arrival time. Earliest arrival time would be earlier in the Zulu day Tuesday, March 14th with arrival time possibly as late as March 15th. Periods of active geomagnetic activity or minor storming is expected with any arrival.

Will this mean a huge aurora again?



https://www.solarham.net/cmetracking.htm

Ham radio operators need to track CMEs as it affects their radio signals.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 3h CME WATCH - 2023.03.11: Some epic-scale activity off the SW limb- three big coronal mass ejections. How many times larger than the Sun are they? Meanwhile Mercury is moving slowly east, against the flow of the stars caused by the Earth's orbit round the Sun.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1634730920073736194



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 3h A LARGE FILAMENT ERUPTION: The origin of the last big CME off the SW limb. The filament darkens & starts to become dynamic. It slowly rises & accelerates away from the Sun. But, as usual, a lot of material falls back to the surface, not going fast enough to reach escape velocity.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1634732330186096640



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 3h A DIFFERENT TYPE OF ERUPTION: This is not a dark filament eruption but a vast jet of hot plasma from a tiny active region blasting off into interplanetary space.  Probably too far west to affect the Earth.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1634736287205687296

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 8h THE SUN TODAY:  1) SSN down to 135 and will likely drop further as we are losing 3 regions over the west limb in the next day or two. 2) No significant flares in the last day. 3) No new regions immediately behind the west limb. 4) Only one new region emerging (white). 5) 10 CMEs.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 8h SPECTACULAR ERUPTION OFF THE NE LIMB OF THE SUN:  We see a large filament start rise, become unstable and explode away from the Sun. But note at its southern end, falling plasma crashes into the surface causing wide-spread heating. Note its massive size, compare to Earth (inset).

https://twitter.com/i/status/1634897885316939777


To confirm how big the CME was:


Quote:

SpaceWeatherNews Look at the earth scale to understand just how enormous today's solar eruption was, how dense the plasma CME was, and how lucky we are it was not aimed at earth. https://pic.twitter.com/lK9gCS5WFq

Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong CME WATCH - 2023.03.12: A beautiful CME off the NE limb followed by another impressive one off the south pole.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1635126189118607360

Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong · 32m THE SUN TODAY: Getting quieter 1) SunSpot Number down again to 115. 2) No significant flares in the last day 3) No significant new regions just behind the E limb 4) Lots of sunspot regions but all small and mostly decaying. Total sunspot area <700 millionths. 5) 12 CMEs yesterday

Getting quieter, yeah sure!



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 6h A HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION! A halo CME occurs when a large CME is launched directly at (or away from) the Earth. So, it forms a huge ring around the Sun. There was no activity on the visible disk at this time so was likely from the far side. Remarkably, it produced protons.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1635442380391211011

The video really does show the CME is a “halo”

More:


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 6h JUST A C FLARE?  A few hours after the spectacular halo CME (see previous tweet) this C3 flare erupted (so it is not the origin of the CME). Note a dark (cool and dense) loop is visible, it suddenly becomes unstable and erupts to the north. It almost seems to fold over on itself!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1635444735887261696


Hmmm “protons.” Last time we had protons we had the biggest aurora for a LONG time. This about to repeat itself?

We are about to be hit with a CME. Whether that will create auroras I do not know.


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 6h CORONAL MASS EJECTION PASSES EARTH TODAY. A CME ejected from the Sun a day or so ago will brush past Earth at 22:00 UT. In the upper panel you can see that its eastern edge just hits us (green dot - left frame) & passes just below us (middle). The impact will not be great (right)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrL9FKqWIAMY6Zt?format=jpg&name=small

CME has passed us, catching up with some protons also from the sun. No aurora etc:


Quote:

Space Weather Watch@spacewxwatch A weak CME arrival at Earth occurring around 04:00Z from an event that happened on March 10 has bumped the Kp up to active levels and also seems to have brought us back into a minor solar radiation storm at Earth. Take a look at ACE proton data as the CME passed by! Protons seem to have been caught up in the CME shock.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrMFDnlXgAE-8q0?format=png&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 3h CME WATCH - 2023.03.14: We start where we left off yesterday with the halo CME (see earlier tweet). Then another big eruption off the Northwest limb which was the C3 flare and the origin of the protons we see as "snow". Otherwise, quiet with some minor activity off the West Limb.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1635814712800575488

Woah!


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 14m GEOMAGNETIC STORM happening now. As predicted, see earlier tweet, the Earth is undergoing a moderate geomagnetic storm (GH2; Kp = 6). Expect some nice aurora possibly as far south as New York. May cause minor problems on the grid & interfere with high-frequency radio propagation.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrPds0aXwAEzDTv?format=png&name=small



May! LOL!


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 11m THE GEOMAGNETIC STORM'S EFFECT ON RADIO TRANSMISSIONS. It seems that the storm is saturating radio signals in the polar regions at 5 MHz and below. This will interfere with transpolar flights, causing delays, cancellations, and diversions.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrPfUcRX0AIwjLM?format=png&name=small

Most long flights fly a great circle route over the NPole. Oops!

Hmmmm dipping into climate matters:—


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 3m 4TH HOTTEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD. Antarctic sea ice at its lowest seasonal extent on record and the Arctic was the 3rd lowest. Meanwhile globally, it was the 6th warmest arboreal winter on record (Dec 2022 - Feb 2023).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrPgr-vWAAABm4J?format=jpg&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong · 10h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN stable at 100. 2) No significant flares in the last day. 3) A new region just behind the NE limb. 4) No shortage of sunspot regions but no big spots or complex groups. Note the huge prominence off the NE limb. 2 New NOAA numbered regions 5) 9 CMEs yesterday.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 9h Gorgeous jet off SE limb: There seems to be some activity developing on the SE limb of the Sun. The sequence ends with large jet from a small region behind / on the limb. Also note a tiny eruption just to its south at the end.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1635968193998069764

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 3h TWO DOOMED COMETS CRASH INTO THE SUN. Suggest you use full screen to see this one clearly. A comet heading towards the Sun from the southeast breaks into two and both parts disintegrate just after they enter the C2 field of view (red).

https://twitter.com/i/status/1636180745281495042

Hmmmm


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong Repeat performance: Another geomagnetic storm is in progress. As with the last one it is a G2 (Kp=6) event - a moderate. The main effect will be auroa[sic] at higher latitudes with some disruption to high-frequency communications and possible grid problems.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrUCgBTWIAAxt_5?format=png&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 51m CORONAL HOLE WARNING: There is a dark coronal hole near Sun center and will shortly rotate west to be connected magnetically to the Earth. It is small so probably will not have much of an effect on Earth but high-speed solar winds from them can cause geomagnetic disturbances.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrWy3w7XwAMjUlf?format=jpg&name=small


More aurora?

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 5h HUGE SUNSPOT [region] COMING OVER SOUTHEAST LIMB. It is probably the return of AR3236. The X-ray background is increasing (good sign!).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrXKksCWwAcpUFf?format=png&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 10h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN down to 85. 2) Double C6 flares form the new region in SE (see earlier tweet). 3) Still more to come over east limb. 4) A host of small new spot region (white) but apart from the large one on the SE limb they are unlikely amount to much. 5) 4 CMEs yesterday.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong A TOWERING PROMINCE: Seen here in He II 304A light (50,000K) a prominence on the NW limb over 100,000 km high (compare to size of the Earth - inset). It has been steadily growing for several days but is showing no signs of erupting. Remarkable that it remains stable for so long.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Frbd7mtWIAEKFdI?format=png&name=small

If that ever erupts—hope it ain’t pointing at Earth! 100,000Km high!

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 1h CME WATCH - 2023.03.17: In contrast with the last few days some spectacular events. The first significant event is on the E limb associated with the double flare. Then a classic CME off the SW limb and a fainter one off the east limb. Last a large "bubble" CME off the SW limb.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1636903834248265731



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong A BRIGHT ERUPTION: Loops start shedding mass onto the surface of the Sun in the south. A previously invisible structure lights up and blasts away from the Sun. The was what caused the larger CME off the SE limb. The plasma is in bright emission. In contrast to this next event ...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1636907254917070849



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 39m A DARK ERUPTION: This time a dark (cold and dense) filament slowly becomes unstable and gently lifts off. This is what caused the first of the two west limb large-scale eruptions (see previous tweets).

https://twitter.com/i/status/1636910731936296961



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 17m SHATTERED: This bright prominence seems pretty stable until an influx of plasma comes in from the north. It seems to shatter into many different structures, a few of which escape but most falls slowly back onto the Sun.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1636913559195078656

Our sun is pretty active!

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 8h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN down to 45. 2) An M flare, the first in 10 days. A couple of high Cs as well all from the newly numbered region AR 3256. 3) Seems more regions to come over SE limb. 4) The Sun has simplified with the loss of several regions due to decay. 5) 8 CMEs yesterday.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 7h EVENTUALLY! Three days ago, I predicted that a prominence near the north pole of the Sun would erupt. Finally, today, it did so.  The amazing thing is that it grew in height to over 100,000 km which would be impossible with the normal scale height physics at temperatures of ~50K.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1637089403465093120

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong CME WATCH - 2023.03.18: Hyperactive! Starting at 0:10 a very violent eruption off the SW limb with bright ejecta. Then a slower one off the NE limb. Two follow: one from the N. Polar region and another off the NE limb. Lastly a broad CME off the SE limb. All go tonight!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1637280156652896256




Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong 1h NEW REGIONS PUTTING ON A DISPLAY. A group of sunspot regions coming over the SE limb are putting on quite a show of eruptions and jets. This is likely the return of AR3244 in the south and AR3243 in the north. We see here several eruptions stretching over 70 degrees in latitude.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1637287327578959873

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·6h THE SUN TODAY:  1) The SSN jumps to 75. 2) No significant flares in the last day. 3) Looks like more regions to come over both the NE and SE limb. 4) All the activity seems now to be in the eastern half of the Sun. With new large spots both north and south. 5) 11 CMEs yesterday.

Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong · 6h A NEW SUNSPOT REGION SURGING: The region on/behind the NE limb of the Sun has produced a series of bright surges. They are notable in that they reveal the twisted structure of the magnetic fields. It also means that the fields are strong enough to prevent a big eruption, so far.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1637440015490863106

A really detailed look at the sun today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzKyr43_zos&ab_channel=smAshomAsh

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·3h A VIOLENT ERUPTION FROM BEHIND SW LIMB:  Note the size of this event compared to our puny Earth (inset). This CME must be from several days on the far side. First we see a bright filament erupt but as the event continues it spreads eastward towards the southern Pole of the Sun.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1637617456742125568



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong· 2h CME WATCH - 2023.03.19: Very active tonight. We have a lot of activity in the south today (see earlier tweet). There is a nice bubble CME off the SE limb about halfway through. Note how bright the SW steamer is becoming and note the very bright CME there near the end of the movie

https://twitter.com/i/status/1637632410257899521



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·20m CORONAL HOLE ALERT: A large coronal hole is rotating into the western hemisphere of the Sun where it can potentially affect the Earth by sending high-speed solar wind streams our way. They can cause geomagnetic storms. This coronal hole is well south so may pass beneath the Earth

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FronLxEWwAE1T84?format=jpg&name=medium

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·6h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN increased to 80. 2) An M1 flare and 2 C5 events, all from AR3256. 3) Some regions still about to come over the east limb but will they be spots or merely plage? 4) About to lose AR3251 over the west limb. Not many new regions emerging. 5) 10 CMEs yesterday.

Some still-hopeful GSM believers think the decline from over 100 spots to under 100 spots meant a “weak” peak had been reached. Idiots! If they look at the record of Cycle 24, the preceding cycle, they would see bigger declines followed by rises—when you believe crap all fluctuations that suit your erroneous belief take on huge significance and the faith is not destroyed when numbers rise to new heights. Weird but there you go.

Overall tho, believers in a GSM have given up, acknowledging implicitly that the sun is not cooperating with the belief of the GSM = Ice Age cult.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·8h CME WATCH - 2023.03.20:  Note the bright streamer at about 5 o'clock, erupts (see yesterday's report) but then a few hours later does so again but more slowly and less violently. Right at the end we get two spectacular CMEs off the NE and SW limbs simultaneously - the same event?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1637974353127022592

Hmmm no report by Strong yet today.

Still no “State of the Sun” but we do have:


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h CME WATCH - 2023.03.21: We start where we left off yesterday with the double CME (NE/SW) about 8s in. Note the continuous outflow from the NE for hours after the event. Then there's a faint, slow CME off the NE limb, followed by an intense, fast CME off the SW limb.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1638344585905594369



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·3h DIVORCE: Two sunspot regions, one in the south and one in the north connected by trans equatorial magnetic loops. Classic. But note how they disengage & go their separate ways. There may even be some sort of ejecta from the northern part of the structure as the process continues.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1638352046184185858

Yup, no State of the Sun for yesterday but have one for today:


Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong · 7h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up to 100. 2) Only flare of note was a C5 flare yesterday from the complex of spots in the SE. 3) More regions behind the East limb both N & S. 4) Losing AR3251 over west limb. A newly numbered region AR3261. A large spot on the SE limb. 5) 8 CMEs yesterday.

Sun continues active. Does this affect weather and climate on Earth tho? See the video in the GSM thread stickied above.

Meantime, in the board laughingly called Environment what do we see? Complete crud, WAY Off Topic like this garbage:

https://youtu.be/0ulu7XVtnpw

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·9h THE SUN TODAY: 1) Sunspot number still at about 100. 2) No significant flares in the last day. 3) Some regions behind the east limb but don[’]t seem very significant. 4) Some healthy sized spots and a couple of new regions emerging (white). Newly numbered region AR3262. 5) 12 CMEs.

Looks like we missed a great auroral display:

Quote:

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS: A G3 (kP=7) is happening now. Probably due to a sudden increase in Solar Wind density coupled with -ve Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field. Expect some nice aurora at latitudes as low as 50.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·8h A BEAUTIFUL SURGE: A small region on the SE limb of the Sun is just becoming visible. It just produced this elegant jet. It was quite large - compare it to size of the Earth (inset). Note that it was not fast enough to escape the Sun's gravitational pull, most plasma falling back

https://twitter.com/i/status/1638897351870881792



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·10h CME WATCH - 2023.03.22: Sorry, this late but my internet went down last night. A lot of activity primarily on the NE limb and a bright event off the SW limb otherwise several small dim CMEs and continuous out flows particularly at high latitudes.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1638873312594935809

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·2h CME WATCH - 2023.03.23: No spectacular CMEs in the lats two days. In particular, nothing much going on at all off the west limb. 4 or 5 CMEs off the east limb but all very modest in size and speed beside those would be too far east to affect the Earth.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1639083893490950144

Quote:

Keith Strong @drkstrong · 9h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up to 150. 2) No significant flares in the last day. 3) Still some activity behind the NE limb. 4) Sunspot groups generally stable. Four new regions emerging but only the one on the NE limb looks significant. 5) Only 5 coronal mass ejections yesterday.

Quote:

CME WATCH - 2023.03.24: Several small events (some of which we sa[w] in yesterday's post (its 48 -hour video). However, there is a beautiful eruption off the west limb right at the end.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1639464557838991362

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·8h THE SUN TODAY:  1) SSN drops to 140. 2) No significant flares in the last day (again). 3) No new regions behind the east limb. 4) Several nice prominences. Sunspot groups seem stable, with just a couple of small ones emerging (white). New region AR3264. 5) Only one CME yesterday.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·8h STRANGELY QUIET! Yesterday the Sun produced no C flares, the first time since November 2022. It is odd that with so many large spots & regions that it is not producing more & larger flares. Is this the end of the first peak of this cycle, or is it "recharging" for a new burst?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsEUTvXWYAA5ID9?format=jpg&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·3h CME WATCH - 2023.03.25: About halfway through we see a very bright "bubble" CME off the W limb (the one we saw the start of yesterday. Note the continuing outflow after the main shock front has gone. There is a less spectacular event off the NE limb associated with the streamer.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1639790669144248320

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·7h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN stable at 140. 2) No significant flares (>C5) yesterday. 3) No new regions about to rotate onto the disk from behind the East limb. 4) Sunspots regions neither decaying nor growing, the Sun is very stable at the moment. 5) There were only 5 CMEs yesterday.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·3h CME WATCH - 2023.03.26: A lot of missing data. A couple of nice CMEs off the southeastern limb.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1640169983681482752

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·8h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up to 155. 2) No significant flares (i.e., >C5) in the lats day. 3) No major regions due back for at least 3 days. 4) Several large spot groups but not producing any significant activity. They seem to be content to remain stable, not growing or decaying. Odd

Still plenty of mystery about that ball of “fire” hanging in our skies!

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·7h CORONAL HOLE ALERT: A small coronal hole (the dark area just east of Sun center) is about to rotate into the western hemisphere of the Sun where it can become geoeffective. However, it does not have a large east-west extent so probably won't cause a significant geomagnetic storm.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsOpS45XwAAevFQ?format=jpg&name=small

Well, seems some trouble in the solar observatory but enjoy the movie:


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE: We have been starved of SDO data for the last 2 days (when will they fix it?) but this is a 48-hour movie in He II 304A (50,000K) which shows the Sun has been busy despite the lack of big flares. Watch the movie focusing on each quadrant. Enjoy!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1640531652823642113

The sun is definitely in a relatively quiet period lately. It won’t last but seems to be puzzling the boffins:


Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·10h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN drops to 140. 2) No significant flares (>C5) in the last day. 3) Possibly a small region coming over the NE limb. 4) Several new regions emerging but they are generally small. Will they grow - we have to wait and see. 5) 5 CMEs yesterday (see p[re]vious tweet)

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·26m CME WATCH - 2023.03.28: We saw the beginning of an impressive CME off the NW limb at the end of yesterday's edition - now we get to see the whole thing. A large bubble CME followed by continuous out flow. Will it affect the Earth? According to the models it wont - too far west.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1640907167766134784




Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·4m X FLARE IN PROGRESS! Out of nowhere came an X1.27 flare form sunspot region AR3257 in the SW quadrant of the Sun. This is the 8th largest flare so far this cycle.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsWw800X0AEXcxT?format=jpg&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·30m X FLARE VIDEO: This movie is made in the GOES R SUVI 131A channel. It is an image taken in Fe XXI at a temperature of about 12 MK (the high temperature flare channel). It looks as though there may be a CME associated with it.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1640916005764452355

12 million degrees Kelvin? You could burn yourself if you are not careful!  :)

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·12h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up to 160. SS area at 860 millionths of solar surface. 2) X1 flare (see earlier tweets) plus a C7, both from AR3256 (not 3262 as reported by some!). 3) New regions behind both NE & SE limb. 4) About to lose several regions over the west limb so SSN will fall

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsYwQurWAAAKGaG?format=jpg&name=small



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·8h NOW AN M FLARE: The same region that produced the X flare earlier today (see earlier tweets) followed up with an M1.2 flare (exactly 10 times small than the X). Also confirmed that both the X and M flares produced CMEs but not big ones. There was a huge CME off the SE limb though

https://twitter.com/i/status/1641100984242905089

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·55m BUSY DAY! An X flare, two M flares and a host of C flares on 29 March - out like a lion? That after a week of almost no major flare activity. You can see why solar forecasters get premature grey hair!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fsbjn3eXgAkQ-eg?format=png&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h CME WATCH - 2023.03.29: We start where we left off yesterday with the spectacular CME off the NW limb. That is followed by a series of smaller fainter CME's form seemingly the same location. Finally, we get a double CME off the SE limb.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1641252558311153669


(Sorry, the YABB crap software running this board cannot handle the formatting of images and videos used by Dr K Strong on Twitter. My forum handles them no problem—time to update this board’s software to something reasonably modern.

I heard today that the sun is having a massive "burp".

A hole 20 times the size of Earth, or something like that (?)

Can you recommend a good documentary on YouTube about the sun?

greggerypeccary wrote on Mar 30^th, 2023 at 4:16pm:

I heard today that the sun is having a massive "burp". A hole 20 times the size of Earth, or something like that (?) Can you recommend a good documentary on YouTube about the sun?

Here we go:

Scientists are currently working out how much danger we may face after a huge “coronal hole” 20 times larger than the Earth has appeared on the sun.

Australia National University Astrophysicist Doctor Brad Tucker told Gary Adshead on 6PR Mornings there was some chance solar winds could affect electronics, satellites and maybe the Earth’s magnetic field itself.

“Essentially it’s a giant Sun burp,” Dr Tucker said.

https://www.6pr.com.au/solar-wind-warning-as-massive-hole-rends-the-sun/

The sun had a MASSIVE Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) and there is a coronal hole in the sun—indicator of a strong solar storm to come.

Any of these can cause problems to communications and transarctic flights. Nothing much more serious than that.

If you can get to Hobart or some good viewpoint in Perth you will likely see a massive aurora in a day or two.

Is this your first winter in Tasmania, JM? I have just looked up the time and date website that states that Hobart has a sunrise at 7:40 am and a sunset of 4:42 pm, on the 21st of June. I have never had a morning that I was up after 7 am when the sun was not above the horizon, no matter whether its was summer or winter. The sunrise for me on that day will be 6:38 am. The sunset will be at 5:20 pm. Having sunrise 80 minutes later or sunset 80 minutes earlier than what I am accustomed is kind of mind-boggling. But when you compare summer day lengths on the longest day of the year, 4:30 am sunrises and 7:40 pm sunsets would leave me going insane.

This will be my first winter in Tasmania, yup.

BUT I was born in Holland and I will give you an anecdote that describes winter sunrise/set there.

This one morning Dad was awake, looked out the window to the clock on the big church (not sure if it rates as a cathedral!) and saw quarter to eight. He jumped ouf of bed, got dressed, hopped on his pushbike to get to work. But he realised he was about the only one on the road—it wasn’t quarter to eight he had seen but quarter past three! He had seen a reflection of the clock! He could laugh about it later.

Latitude of Delft, Zuid Holland: 52.0115769°N

Latitude of Hobart, Australia:  42.88164°S

Latitude of Rockhampton: 23.375000°S

Latitude of the Australian Antarctic territory: south of the 60°S

So Tasmania is not Antarctica despite the braying of a couple of donkeys here.

Tasmania is nowhere near as cold as Holland or England

That explains sunrise/set.

When I was in England in Dec 1978 I had a nice lunch at a restaurant. Was on the first floor—as I finished lunch, about 2.30pm I could see dusk creeping in on this park across the road from the restaurant.


Sun seems to be rising or has just riz at 06.55am.

Dr Strong had a tanty about the helio viewer not being fixed  :)

Then:

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·9h THIS IS WHY THEY CALL IT AN ACTIVE REGION: Two days ago, AR3256 showed very little in the way of big flares on its two-week journey across the solar disk.  Then this happened! An X1 and three M flares, and countless C flares. It will be with us for another day or so, expect more!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1641378707615956996


(Remember, the antiquated software running OzPol cannot handle the file formats used on Twitter for images and videos.)

Re: the sun?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8h1EjYH1Mk

Coronal holes explained:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5s4wSucpbE

And:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLoiQn1RoUM

And:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHHSSJDJ4oo

Bit apocalyptic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85-p9EIEVUA


Tons of videos on the recent coronal hole, harder to find explanations of what they are, how they form and what they do or mean for us.

A YouTube with a more general description of coronal holes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azzJ9SCt4PM

Greggy you might like this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiHWXoC_Wlk&ab_channel=WorldNewsReport

I only comment on the solstices in different places because it fascinates me about the day lengths. I checked out Reykjavik, Iceland's sunrise and sunset. They have 21-hour summer days and 4-hour winter days of sunlight. Whereas places like Hammerfest, Norway have months of all-day sun in the summer. And no sun for 50-something days during the winter.

Having lived closer to the equator than 90% of Australia's population, we only see the effects of longest days or shortest days during the solstices. The daylengths between the two times only vary by 3.5 hours. I figure people in Tasmania would lose their minds about having longer or shorter days than what we have up here.

Takes some adjusting.

But guess what? ONE day the car thermometer registered 39°C this summer. The rest of the days were 31° or less.

Every night temperatures dropped t0 12–15°C, you could sleep! No series of 40+°C days and 30°C nights like in Adelaide!

Would you have had a ceiling fan for your room in Adelaide? I remember growing up trying to get through humid summer nights being near sleepless. Living away from home, I had my first use of a ceiling fan. After moving away from there and into this house (this being the 20th year I have been here), I had ceiling fans in every room. The ceiling fan in this room has been on since September last year. But it only goes slowly at its fastest -- just enough to give a nice breeze.

It took until we had that week of no power (after cyclone Marcia) where I remembered what it was like to not have a breeze to let me sleep through hot, humid and mosquito filled nights. It will be a month from now when I keep the fans off for a few months, as the winter nights mean that you have to keep the warmth in the house and not blown out the toilet room window.

Yup, ceiling fan+light in bedroom and lounge. Also had a/c in lounge, used that sparingly, would have had it on 24hours straight only once or twice.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong CME WATCH - 2023.03.30: We have two big eruptions, starting with the one off the southeastern limb of the Sun (bottom left). Then a larger but fainter one off the SW limb.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1641629395013042176

Those commercials that talk about mobile airconditioners were so enticing to buy. I listen to my old fashion airconditioner whirring away. I wonder whether I am spending 3 times as much power on that thing that I would be if I had one of those featured on those commercials.

I had a mobile evaporative cooler at the shop. Didn’t notice much cooling.

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 31^st, 2023 at 1:27pm:

I had a mobile evaporative cooler at the shop. Didn’t notice much cooling.

The "Arctic Air" unit that I have in this lounge did nothing much more than a slight cool breeze on my back. But, it was better than nothing.

Dad got me a portable fan to use over the remainder of the warm season. But, it would not do me much good, seeing that this house has a fan in each room.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·6h THE SUN TODAY: Helioviewer not fixed! 1) SSN down to 80 & area falls to 560 millionths 2) No significant flares since M7 yesterday. X-ray background down to B7 3) Some modest regions behind the NE & SE limbs 4) Many regions disappearing over west limb, few new small ones emerging

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·11h The Average Sunspot Number (SSN) for March 2023 was about 122, the second highest monthly average so far this cycle (after January 2023) and just a little higher than February. It is the 4th month in a row with an average SSN above 100. It is also over 50% higher than March 2022.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsjJPhsWYAIak3J?format=png&name=small



Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·15h GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A weak geomagnetic storm is in progress (G1; Kp=5). Expect some aurora at high latitudes.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsiNfekWAAIJO-R?format=png&name=small

HUGE bloody CME!


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Keith Strong@drkstrong SPECTACULAR CME OFF NW LIMB: A very bright, fast-moving prominence erupts away from the Sun as seen by the SUVI He II 304 image (center) and within an hour a massive CME becomes visible in the LASCO High-res field of view. The bright material in the image is the original filament

https://twitter.com/i/status/1641975435876605957

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN down to 60; area only 300 mil. 2) Two medium level C flares, both from behind the west limb. 3) Looks like a substantial region behind the SE limb. 4) Several regions disappeared over the west limb, a few minor spots emerging (white). Other regions decaying.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·7h CONFIRMED:  The long-duration flare (see earlier tweet) did have a large coronal mass ejection associated with it. The left panel shows the flare at its peak (arrow) from the GOES SUVI instrument. The right panel shows the SOHO LASCO image of the CME just an hour after the flare.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fsnx9auWIAACu0b?format=png&name=small

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Keith Strong@drkstrong CORONAL HOLE ALERT - 2023.04.01:  Another coronal hole in moving into position to send high-speed solar wind at Earth. It is the long thin N-S dark area just west of Sun center. It is long enough that it cannot miss us but is so narrow that it will likely have no effect on Earth.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fsq2K4iXsAQsx8A?format=jpg&name=small



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Keith Strong@drkstrong·7h CME WATCH - 2023.04.01: Busy day! We start with a minor CME off the NW limb followed by the spectacular one from the LDE event (see earlier tweet). Next a fainter CME in the SW, and another off the S. Pole region. We have a faint halo CME almost simultaneous with one in the SE.

LOL!

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·7h Jupiter photobombs the Sun! The bright object in the bottom left of this image of the outer solar corona from the SOHO LASCO C3 instrument is Jupiter on the far side of the Sun (i.e., about as far away from Earth as it can get). It will drift westward over the next week or so.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fsq78fcXoAAPMmA?format=png&name=small


This is really fascinating! Sunspots, sunspot regions. filaments, flares and CMEs from sunspot regions, coronal holes, suicidal comets flying too close to the sun like a modern day Icarus! Some comets/meteorites may escape their grazing contact with the sun!

I did not start this series of posts right from the start of Solar Cycle 25. To make up for that I will keep this going to the end of SC25 and a year or two into SC26. There will be summaries etc as well.

Also—will read up on the sun and post some of the science here. This will be fascinating!

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Keith Strong@drkstrong THE SUN TODAY:  Things are pretty quiet, except for CMEs. The Sunspot number is allegedly down to 30 but to me that seems wrong. Note I identify 7 old sunspot regions still on the Sun (black circles, so SSN of >70) plus 5 new regions (white, SNN = 70+50=120). Somebody cant count!

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Space Weather Watch@spacewxwatch See if you can spot the disappearing solar filament (DSF) which was observed this morning lifting off from the east between 06:00Z and 08:00Z. Look for a dark line of suspended plasma that twists counter-clockwise before disappearing completely. It's currently hard to say if the eruption was re-absorbed by the Sun as the filament eruption doesn't appear to have a CME with it yet coronagraphs, but by eye alone, it does appear to be Earth-directed. An enhancement in the solar wind is possible then mid-day to late on Wednesday the 5th.  Let us know in the comments below if you see it! Special thanks: NASA/SDO, Helioviewer teams

https://twitter.com/i/status/1642520904058953728

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h CME WATCH - 2023.04.02: After all the excitement of yesterday (the first half of this movie) only one additional CME is visible off the SE limb near the end well after the halo CME from yesterday.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1642693017810227201

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·8h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN rose to 65 and area to 210 mil. 2) No significant flares in the last day. 3) Nothing significant immediately behind the east limb but there is a whole string of regions on the far side of the Sun. 4) Two newly numbered regions, AR3269 and 70. 5) Only 5 CMEs.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·1h CME WATCH - 2023.04.03: We start off with 4 Coronal Mass Ejections off the southeast limb (lower left), all relatively modest in size. Then a very large but faint one off the NW limb. Lastly a fast one off the SW limb. Promising for upcoming activity.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1643054036004765697

When we have moved into Solar Cycle 26 for a year or two I will try and create some graphs of what the sun has done:

#sunspots
#CMEs

etc

Might do this when the peak of the current cycle is past and again after the end of the cycle.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·9h THE SUN TODAY:  1) SSN up to 70 and area to 420 mil. 2) No significant flares (>C5) in the last day. 3) Perhaps a small region behind the NE limb. 4) AR3270 continues to grow (see earlier tweet). Two new regions emerging (white). Several nice prominences (P). 5) 7 CMEs yesterday.

That very low count of sunspots, that Dr Strong said was wrong, gave hope to some remaining believers in “the” GSM causing a mini ice age on Twitter. I stomped on those delicate hopes.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·1h CME WATCH - 2023.04.04: Nothing much new going on at the moment - most of the CME's you see here were visible in the last half of yesterday's CME Watch. There is an additional event off the NW limb near the end, but it was faint and slow.  Note the bright streamer near the S Pole

https://twitter.com/i/status/1643438210532384769

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·3h THE SUN TODAY: Still very quiet. 1) SSN down to 60 and are to 140 mil. 2) No significant flares in the last day (again). 3) Bright region behind SE limb - note odd halo around it! 4) Newly numbered region AR3271. New region appeared in NE (white). 5) Only 4 coronal mass ejections

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Keith Strong@drkstrong Solar Cycle 25 is outperforming the models by about 78% which implies that the sunspot number will peak at just over 200 (compared to 116 for Solar Cycle 24).

Important enough I will post the graph of the two Solar Cycles:

---

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Keith Strong@drkstrong CME WATCH - 2023.04.05: No truly spectacular por fast CMEs over the last two days as the Sun has been surprisingly quiet. See how many small, faint CMEs you can detect.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1643773212189249536

I counted nine.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong WHO SAID THE SUN WAS QUIET? Just as I say that it produces the first M flare in a week. This was from a region on/just behind the southeast limb so was probably a much larger event. A quick check of SOHO LASCO show that it also produced a Coronal Mass Ejection. Expect more flares

https://twitter.com/i/status/1643907215038840832

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·11h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SNN number down to 50 while area up to 170 mil. 2) M3 flare - see earlier tweet. 3) More of new region still behind SE limb. 4) Large sunspot on SE limb, a few tiny new regions emerging. 5) 10 C-flares yesterday and 5 coronal mass ejections.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·1h INTERESTING FILAMENT ERUPTION: The filament is the dark structure running from N-S. You can see that is starts to become unstable as flows start from the N end to the S. They seem to pause for a while then accelerate and the whole structure disintegrates. Note the scale wrt Earth

https://twitter.com/i/status/1644140140980322304

Massive!

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Keith Strong @drkstrong · 17h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN drop to 40, area remains at 170 mil 2) No significant flares (>C5) in the last 24 hrs. X-ray background rising 3) Possible new region behind NE limb. 4) Looking sparse for active regions - the solar doldrums? Two new tiny regions (white). 5) 7 CMEs yesterday

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·2h CME WATCH - 2023.04.07: The string of CMEs off the SE limb continues. The bright streamer off the SW limb brightened and partially erupted as predicted - looks like its getting ready to go again. Also the bright streamer off the NW erupted too. Busy night!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1644528317817835521



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Keith Strong@drkstrong·2h M3 flare in progress from AR3272 near the SE limb

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtKKagQWwAAK85q?format=jpg&name=small

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Keith Strong@drkstrong THE SUN TODAY: 1) SNN up to 45 and area to 300 mil. 2) An M3 flare plus a couple of mid-level C flares, all from AR3272. 3) NE limb promising a new region but only scattered plage so far. 4) Note all the activity is in the southern hemisphere. Some big prominences around the limb

SOLAR CYCLE 25 PROGRESSION
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsoFEQx8_9Q&ab_channel=drkstrong

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·22m CME WATCH - 2023.04.08: The bright streamer off the SW limb brightens and produces a large, slow CME. The bright streamer just west the N pole produced a small CME, then a very impressive one and by the end the streamer is gone. A few modest CMEs off the east limb towards the end

https://twitter.com/i/status/1644861752020959233

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·12h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SNN up to 55 and area to 310 mil. 2) Just a C9 flare (close but no cigar). 3) A bright area behind NE limb but as yet no spots. 4) Lost AR3270 over west limb but 3 new regions emerging. 5) 4 CMEs yesterday.

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GORGEOUS VIEW OF THE SOUTHERN POLAR CROWN FILAMENT.  The Polar Crown Filaments (dark features on the surface of the Sun) form along the magnetic neutral line between the polar coronal hole and the hemispheric magnetic field. There are prominences at each end shown by blue arrows.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtRZwI2WcAE0KRe?format=jpg&name=small

Really is something to see.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·5h CME WATCH - 2023.04.09:  A lot of missing data :(. We start with 3 strong CMEs one after another: one off the southwest, followed by a bigger one off the east limb and a very large one off the northwest. Finally, one off the southwest. Note Jupiter sneaking in from the southeast.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1645240834177085442

Dutch people are sensible, solid, even stolid people. (They do collapse into helpless laughter at the telling of any joke with a hint of scatology) but, and I hate to admit this, some Dutch people are just plain silly!

I just told one Dutch twit and tweeter:


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Jei bent toch een echte lul, niets?

Oh it is nice being bilingual. Mind you, two tongues instead of the normal one is a problem  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·11h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up to 75, area 330 mil. 2) M3 and C6 flares earlier the morning both from the new region on the SE limb. 3) More activity to come from behind the southeast limb. 4) Two other regions emerged both in the north (white). The one on the NE limb is a large spot.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·11h PROMINENCE / FILAMENT ERUPTION: A prominence sat happily on the limb for hours, then started to rise and be dynamic. Then it erupted in two parts: one violently on the disk (the filament) and a much larger one that stretched over the far limb (the prominence).

https://twitter.com/i/status/1645390140137668608

Worth clicking on the link and viewing the little movie.




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Keith Strong@drkstrong·11h THIS WHY THEY CALL THEM ACTIVE REGIONS: A new sunspot region is rotating on to the visible disk over the SE limb of the Sun. Not all the busy activity from the region. It has already produced M3 and C6 flares (see earlier tweets) - expect more.

Quote:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1645390140137668608

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·13m THE SUN TODAY:  1) SSN jumps to 105 and SSA to 460 mil. 2) Just had an M1 flare plus 2 earlier mid-level Cs. 3) Helioseismology shows some large regions (dark blobs - RHS) on the far side of the Sun which will be visible in about a week. 4) newly numbered regions AR3273/74/75/76.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong CME WATCH - 2023.04.11: Modest activity levels. We start with a large, bright CME off the SW limb then several faintish ones from all round the Sun. Can you keep count of them? Don't confuse a sustained outflow with and eruption.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1645959334390640645

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·1h A CLASSIC SLOW FILAMENT ERUPTION: You can see the dark filament start to rise and accelerate away from the Sun but note that much later a large amount of plasma falls back onto the Sun's surface in the southern part of the region. I don't see any impact brightening when it falls.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1646113430699495425

Fantastic video, worth a look.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·1h CME WATCH - 2023.04.12: Jupiter exiting stage right. Almost looks as if the Sun is trying to hit with CMEs but, of course that is just a perspective effect. Jupiter is 100s of millions of km away. Most CME activity is off the W limb, though most of the activity has been on the E.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1646328164375724032

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·6h NEW SUNSPOTS APPEARING: A series of spots are appearing over the SE limb. Note the leading region is a simple, stable spot so likely the remnants of an old region. A larger region following has big spots but too early to see their dynamics. A 3rd region just appearing to the east

https://twitter.com/i/status/1646324984191623168


The above can help you understand sunspots.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·6h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN (140) & SSA (580 mil.) both increasing. 2) Four moderate level C flares from 3 different regions. 3) Something substantial behind the SE limb? 4) Two newly numbered NOAA regions AR2378 and 2379. New sunspot region in the northeast. 5) Only 4 CMEs yesterday.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·6h IS THE N. POLAR CROWN FILAMENT ABOUT ERUPT AGAIN? This 2-day movie shows a string of filament segments stretching round the N solar polar coronal hole & they seem to be slowly rising - usually the first hint that a filament may erupt. If it all goes at once it will be spectacular

https://twitter.com/i/status/1646490202360147968

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h CME WATCH - 2023.04.13: Most activity today seems to be above the east (left) limb which is promising for future activity levels. However, none of the events were particularly bright or rapid.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1646703707826843648

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·9h THE SUN TODAY:  1) SSN rises to 160 and area to 810 mil. 2) No significant flares (>C5) in the last day. 3) There may yet be more sunspots to come over the SE limb. 4) Lost a couple of regions in the west but gained several new ones in the east. Southern hemisphere dominant. 5) 9 CMEs.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES!  Yesterday, a small active region, apparently no different from dozens of others, came over the northeast limb. But since then, it has become extremely active, producing two M flares in the last few hours. I expect more flares from this region soon.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1647048103080460288

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·1h WEIRD SUNSPOT: A large sunspot has emerged in the southeastern quadrant of the Sun. It is odd in the way that it is elongated mainly North-South, not seen many spots like this. Because of differential rotation, it is unlikely that this configuration will last for very long.

---

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·3h VERY HIGH-LATITUDE SUNSPOTS! Can you spot where the new region emerges? The region has 3 significant spots & continues to grow. It is interesting in that it is at latitude of about 38 deg N, twice the current average latitude of N. regions. Note the filament eruption at the end.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1647203320065294338



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Keith Strong@drkstrong·3h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN number up to 180, area at 1120 mil. 2) two M flares and several high C level events mostly from AR3282. 3) Something significant behind the NE limb. 4) Unusually high latitude region in the north (see earlier tweet), many spot groups compared to last month.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·5h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up again to 195 and area slightly higher at 1170. 2) Only a C5 flare yesterday. 3) More to come over the NE limb? 4) Note the prominence at the N pole looks as if about to erupt. No new regions emerged. AR3272 decaying rapidly. 5) A lot of C flares yesterday

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·5h The problem with sunspot numbers. The sunspot number is defined as the number of groups x 10 +the number of spots. Look at the sunspots from today (top frame). How many different sunspot groups are there? Now look at the magnetogram below. Does that change your numbers? It should

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ft1eciQWwAUFjLz?format=png&name=small

BTW, a thief, troll and doxxer by the name of Booby thinks this thread should be in his destroyed Environment board.

Not wanting to post in that toilet of a board with its incompetent clown of a Mod but this thread is not about “environment” but just describing the cycle of our sun. Only impacts on us are bright aurora and some communications breakdonws in certain frequency bands. Not an urgent environmental problem  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Further more, the sun does not drive climate—solar variations are just too damn small. The sun does not drive seasons or ocean currents—that is the shape of the globe, its continents etc. Even major ice ages are not caused by the sun but by perturbations of our orbit, inclination etc.


So this thread is fine here. It is just science.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·5h CME WATCH - 2023.04.15: Sorry, forgot to upload this last night. We start with the continuation of the multiple CMEs off the E limb. Note how the streamer above the S pole intensifying before erupting and is still there to do it again. Then a couple of modest CMEs off the SW limb

https://twitter.com/i/status/1647576747993440259

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·6h A Dynamic C9 flare on the NE. Helioviewer still not working for SDO AIA or HMI! :(

https://twitter.com/i/status/1647712586786283522




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Keith Strong@drkstrong·3h CME WATCH - 2023.-04.16: There is a very fast and bright coronal mass ejection off the southeast limb near the end of the video. Note also the streamer above the south pole is getting brighter and may erupt soon.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1647756532606484482

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·2h A VERY LARGE BUT FAINT FILAMENT ERUPTION: Watch the dark filament coming in from the left and curling back on itself to the south. It gradually rises and spreads west like a wave covering nearly half the Sun, leaving behind it the classic two bright ribbons on the Sun's surface.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1648157497025347585

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·2h CME WATCH - 2023.04.17: Very similar to yesterday - a few low to moderate events.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1648152672061603840

We missed out on a couple days data:


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Keith Strong@drkstrong·9h THE SUN TODAY: Helioviewer working again - at last! 1) SSN down to 140, area 890 mil. 2) Only a C7 flare in the last day. 3) More activity promised over NE limb but so far no sunspots. 4) Two new numbered regions AR3283/3284. two new tiny spot regions emerged out ahead of AR3282.

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Keith Strong@drkstrong MAGNETIC BALLET: Two sunspot groups on the W. limb of the Sun are in opposing hemispheres and seem to be battling out which has the strongest field. The southern one seems to be more active but the flow is mostly from north to south. Note how shoch wave one jet disrupts the flow

https://twitter.com/i/status/1648376479691030529



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Keith Strong@drkstrong·7h CME WATCH - 2023.04.18: The bright streamer near the S. pole of the Sun produced a second modest coronal mass ejection but not the major one I was expecting. Some activity (slow outflow or minor CME?) above the SE limb. Almost no activity in the northern hemisphere for 2 days.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1648495121317646336

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·10h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SNN down to 100, area to 790 mil. 2) Only significant flare was a C5 from over the west limb (so was likely a larger event) 3) Helioseismology shows several regions on the far side of the sun, mostly in the north. 4) Several regions decaying with a new one in NE

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·13h CORONAL HOLE ALERT: There is a tiny coronal hole on the solar equator near sun Center, it probably will not be an issue. In the south there is a large CH just east of the central meridian which should not be an issue but last time contributed in part to a major geomagnetic storm.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuEnGEbXsAABX2K?format=jpg&name=medium

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Keith Strong@drkstrong·1h CME WATCH - 2023.04.19: Activity continues primarily off the southern E & W limbs. Then we have two modest eruptions first off the west limb, followed one off the eastern limb. Then a fairly significant CME off the SE limb, but it is very slow to develop.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1648867471716147200