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Member Run Boards >> Environment >> More from JM's tripe -IPCC http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1679364543 Message started by lee on Mar 21st, 2023 at 12:09pm |
Title: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Mar 21st, 2023 at 12:09pm Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 21st, 2023 at 9:53am:
So much in this latest instalment of AR6. But it doesn't marry up with WG1 - The Physical Science Basis. The garudian offers this - "Scientists deliver ‘final warning’ on climate crisis: act now or it’s too late" https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/20/ipcc-climate-crisis-report-delivers-final-warning-on-15c According to the UN 2021 was "Code Red for Humanity" 2020 "Mark Lynas’s ‘Final warning’ on climate: ‘It’s all on us, here, now,’ says reviewer " https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/mark-lynas-final-warning-on-climate-its-all-on-us-here-now/ 1989 "A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. " https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0 And to date? Nada, Zip, Nothing. ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by PZ547 on Mar 21st, 2023 at 12:22pm
;D ;D ;D ;D
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Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Bobby. on Mar 21st, 2023 at 5:17pm
This says it all:
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Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Xavier on Mar 21st, 2023 at 6:00pm
Venus - the Pollution Effect
Mars - the War Effect |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by AusGeoff on Mar 22nd, 2023 at 6:09am
Coal power plant permitting, construction starts and new project
announcements accelerated dramatically in China in 2022, with new permits reaching the highest level since 2015. The coal power capacity starting construction in China was SIX TIMES as large as that in all of the rest of the world combined. China permits two new coal power plants per week in 2022. >:( |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Bobby. on Mar 22nd, 2023 at 3:26pm AusGeoff wrote on Mar 22nd, 2023 at 6:09am:
But try and explain that to Monk. :-? |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Xavier on Mar 22nd, 2023 at 7:28pm
Monk thinks he's so smart like a computer.
He needs the information punched into him. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Lisa Jones on Mar 22nd, 2023 at 8:56pm Jasin wrote on Mar 22nd, 2023 at 7:28pm:
😂🤣😆😂🤣😆😂🤣😆😂🤣😆😂🤣😆😂🤣😆😂🤣😆😂🤣😆😂🤣😆😂🤣😆 |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Lisa Jones on Mar 22nd, 2023 at 9:01pm
https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1193232501/273#273
Speaking of Dumbarse Drunk...the tosspot has well and truly lost his marbles. Dumbarse Drunk is posting away the following delusional confabulation: He has convinced himself that I had twins whilst posting at PA. And that I delivered said twins when they were in utero for just 6 months ffs! Oh and I had them at age 60 too 😂😂😆 He’s also chronically posting about his tea cups in the above link. He clearly has no idea what topic he’s in. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Mar 23rd, 2023 at 3:42pm Quote:
https://youtu.be/jh2X-FREk8Y The coup de grace to the idiotic “GSM so Ice Age” nonsense.[/quote] So what happens when the Sun goes dark? It will take a million years for the impact to be felt? ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Bobby. on Mar 23rd, 2023 at 6:32pm Jasin wrote on Mar 22nd, 2023 at 7:28pm:
China, India and Indonesia are doing most of the polluting and CO2 addition to our atmosphere - not us. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Dnarever on Mar 23rd, 2023 at 9:16pm Bobby. wrote on Mar 23rd, 2023 at 6:32pm:
So us adding more on top of all the others doesn't matter then? |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Lisa Jones on Mar 24th, 2023 at 8:55am Dnarever wrote on Mar 23rd, 2023 at 9:16pm:
And once again Puddle Duck proves he is unable to grasp what’s being posted at him. 😐 |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Bobby. on Mar 24th, 2023 at 9:15am Dnarever wrote on Mar 23rd, 2023 at 9:16pm:
No but we're doing our bit - why isn't China doing their bit? |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Mar 24th, 2023 at 12:33pm Dnarever wrote on Mar 23rd, 2023 at 9:16pm:
Australia is a NET carbon SINK. That means we don't ADD anything. ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Mar 28th, 2023 at 12:29pm Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 28th, 2023 at 7:09am:
The SREX is done through hours and hours of negotiations between politicians, not scientists. It doesn't even use AR6 WG1 - The Physical Science Basis as the basis of the report. That means it relies on the Non- Scientific Basis. It is where the InterGOVERNMENTAL Panel on Climate Change gets its name. ::) From the same bloke who uses a photoshopped poor poley bear on an incredibly unstable small ice floe. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 5th, 2023 at 7:23pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 4th, 2023 at 6:17am:
What JM doesn't seem to know is that the NH has the bulk of the temperature increase. The Top of the graph then is the NH and the countercyclical the SH. And the temperature for 2019 isn't the same as 1980. Anyone who can read a graph can tell. It looks like JM can't do that either. ::) The last red figure on the 13 month trailing average is not in April, it is in March. And March is finished. And it is strange he doesn't want to talk about the plateau in temperatures. Next he'll be on about a new super size el Nino. ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Jovial Monk on Apr 5th, 2023 at 7:30pm
Did I not say that April was not included in the red line?
The graph is of global temperatures, not part NH and part SH, like ????????? Plateau of temperatures—the last 3, La Nina years? We know volcanoes and La Ninas cause a temporary dip in temperatures, El Ninos cause a rise. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 5th, 2023 at 7:40pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 5th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
Nope. lee wrote on Apr 5th, 2023 at 7:23pm:
If your graph goes to March that is your ref. Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 5th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
Ah so you believe Summer in Australia overrides Winter in the NH. Interesting. ::) Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 5th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
Yes since 2016 the last 7 years. Or do you only want to consider the 7 years from 2012? ::) Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 5th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
Yes. But the Volcanoes don't rely on La Nina. And Las Nina are temporary, as are Los Ninos. ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Jovial Monk on Apr 5th, 2023 at 7:46pm
I didn’t say La Ninas needed volcanoes! Are you going daft lee?
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Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 5th, 2023 at 7:52pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 5th, 2023 at 7:46pm:
Well it was you that linked them. So are Los Ninos temporary also? You carefully didn't say. ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Jovial Monk on Apr 5th, 2023 at 8:05pm
La Ninas are temporary, some less so than others.
Imagine having 3 El Ninos in a row! |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 5th, 2023 at 8:50pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 5th, 2023 at 8:05pm:
I guess you think they are permanent. ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 8th, 2023 at 2:30pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 8th, 2023 at 5:48am:
Excerpts - "Though I had come to Australia to research the impacts of climate change on extreme weather events, it instead became my lived experience." One year here and he lived climate change. ;D ;D ;D ;D "The governing Coalition had left a trail of death and destruction, both figuratively and literally." The government caused the fire and destruction. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D "Thousands of homes were destroyed, dozens of lives lost, 24 million hectares burned, and Australia was shunned from an international climate summit over the then prime minister Scott Morrison’s climate intransigence." Actually it was less than 19 million. Not good, but not as bad as said. I guess we need to make things worse than they were because...climate change. ::) "Meanwhile, the rightwing Murdoch media machine continued to spew climate disinformation, cynically blaming the devastation on arson and “back-burning”. " Climate change doesn't light fires. Humans cause 90% of fires directly. ::) But hey when you have to splice, for some inexplicable reason, temperature data sets and tree ring "data" from recent periods, you have to wonder why. I mean tree rings respond more to water than temperature, proxy data has wider error bars than thermometers. But he is a "Climate Scientist"TM "After substantial progress at Cop26 in Glasgow, the Cop27 meeting in Sharm El Sheikh late last year yielded minimal additional progress, failing to secure emissions reductions from the countries of the world that will keep warming of the planet below a catastrophic 1.5C." There is absolutely no data that establishes 1.5c as "catastrophic". 2C was dreamed up by an economist not a Climate Scientist. 1.5 c was dreamed up by the IPCC but with no evidence. ::) But JM believes. He would Sanctify Mann. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 8th, 2023 at 3:11pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 8th, 2023 at 3:03pm:
Predictably JM couldn't refute so didn't respond here. ;D ;D ;D |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 8th, 2023 at 5:15pm Bobby. wrote on Mar 21st, 2023 at 5:17pm:
Duuuuh perhaps because we want to reserve our coal for export. And having alternative sources of energy would be what should be powering our needs. I am actually all for nuclear power plants being built. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 8th, 2023 at 5:27pm Lisa Jones wrote on Mar 24th, 2023 at 8:55am:
What is wrong with what DNA wrote? Australia might contribute a small proportion of the air pollution and CO2 to the atmosphere. But it still adds to what the larger populated countries make. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 8th, 2023 at 5:29pm lee wrote on Mar 24th, 2023 at 12:33pm:
Despite our situation about being a carbon sink area, adding carbon to the atmosphere still adds to the atmosphere. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 8th, 2023 at 5:45pm UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 8th, 2023 at 5:29pm:
Not in Australia. ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Belgarion on Apr 8th, 2023 at 5:49pm
Can any of you climate alarmists tell me what the optimum level of atmospheric CO2 is?
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Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 8th, 2023 at 5:54pm UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 8th, 2023 at 5:27pm:
Might? We don't add CO2 to the atmosphere. As for pollution, it is dispersed by wind. The Blue Mountains are actually natural pollution. The terpenes emitted by Gum trees are what give the Blue Mountains the Blue effect, via the prism effect. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Xavier on Apr 8th, 2023 at 6:19pm
That 'Blue Haze' is a very subduing narcotic effect.
No wonder Abos didn't feel like building big rubbish to imaginary gods. :D |
Title: Re: More from latest IPCC Report. Post by Jovial Monk on Apr 8th, 2023 at 9:37pm Belgarion wrote on Apr 8th, 2023 at 5:49pm:
About 320ppm be good. Milder climate than now, melting of land ice be a lot slower than now. Higher sea levels would help moderate climate—if this happens slowly populations and infrastructure etc could be moved to higher altitudes. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 8th, 2023 at 11:00pm lee wrote on Apr 8th, 2023 at 5:45pm:
Yes, in Australia. ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 8th, 2023 at 11:06pm lee wrote on Apr 8th, 2023 at 5:54pm:
I don't know where you live. But, in my small town, the cars generate enough pollution as it is to contribute to the air pollution. Cities like Brisbane (at least 25 times the population of where I live) had air pollution levels that I would suggest on par with what I breathed on a day of heavy traffic (perhaps when I rode home from school near the school). We also cut down trees and breathe. Both of which 25 million Australians add to the atmosphere of CO2 concentrations. I bet those trees in the Blue Mountains do more to reduce CO2 levels than what you realise. If you have been to the rainforests in northeast Australia, you would see how heavy the air feels with oxygen. |
Title: Re: More from latest IPCC Report. Post by Belgarion on Apr 9th, 2023 at 9:45am Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 8th, 2023 at 9:37pm:
So 320ppm is good....much better than the current 400ppm...a change of around 80 ppm - 8 thousandths of 1 percent - will change the climate? |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 9th, 2023 at 12:34pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 8th, 2023 at 9:37pm:
Link? Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 8th, 2023 at 9:37pm:
You mean we have rapid Sea Level Rise? How much and where? Vanuata - shows cycles. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 9th, 2023 at 4:13pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 9th, 2023 at 2:21pm:
Of course JM comes up with the 87 times figure. Truthfully methane has Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 30. It is measured in parts per BILLION and lasts about 12 years. https://www.science.org.au/curious/earth-environment/methane Can you spot the error in this UN publication? "To be more specific, CO2 concentrations last year reached 415.7 parts per million (ppm), methane 1908 ppm, and nitrous oxide 334.5 ppm." https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129887 "Since 2007, global methane concentration has been increasing at an accelerating rate. The annual increases in 2020 and 2021 are the largest since systematic registry began in 1983. However, scientists still don’t know what the causes of this increase are, but some research indicates that a large amount of this methane is coming from “biogenic sources”, such as wetlands and rice paddies." ibid Note: No cows, sheep etc. "The concentration of methane in the atmosphere has risen sharply—by about 25 teragrams per year — since 2006. " https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/91564/what-is-behind-rising-levels-of-methane-in-the-atmosphere Stock levels have not increased greatly, if at all, since 2006. So it must be something else. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 10th, 2023 at 1:53pm UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 8th, 2023 at 11:06pm:
Yes. Brisbane has a pollution problem. Both Sydney and Brisbane have reasonably low average wind speeds. From 2m/sec or 7.2kmh in Jun to 8kmh in Dec. UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 8th, 2023 at 11:06pm:
Nope. I am not surprised. According to the Chief Scientist in 2009 we are a carbon sink. "Which plants store more carbon in Australia: forests or grasses?" https://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/2009/12/which-plants-store-more-carbon-in-australia-forests-or-grasses A later study says grasses are more efficient. "Grasslands more reliable carbon sink than trees" https://phys.org/news/2018-07-grasslands-reliable-carbon-trees.html BTW- I have lived in Brisbane and also PNG. ;) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 11th, 2023 at 11:43am Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 11th, 2023 at 8:44am:
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/12/more-co2-in-the-atmosphere-hurts-key-plants-and-crops-more-than-it-helps/ Do plant have lower vitamins? Marginally true. Do plants have better water tolerance- true but you won't hear about it. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 11th, 2023 at 12:11pm
From the paper (clearly not read by JM)
But spot the weasel words. "For example, harvests of staple cereal crops, such as rice and maize, could decline by 20 to 40% as a function of increased surface temperatures in tropical and subtropical regions by 2100 without considering the impacts of extreme weather and climate events (3)." But the tropics is supposed to have the lowest temperature increase. "As evidenced by over a hundred individual studies and several meta-analyses, projected increases in atmospheric [CO2] can result in an ionomic imbalance for most plant species whereby carbon increases disproportionally to soil-based nutrients (9–11). This imbalance, in turn, may have significant consequences for human nutrition (12, 13) including protein and micronutrients. However, at present, no information is available regarding a key constituent of nutrition, vitamin content; as a result, no integrated assessment (protein, micronutrients, and vitamins) is available." But that isn't what the headline says. What is missing from the study is the actual dietary requirement vs any reduction in the crop. However they do acknowledge that. "Specific health outcomes of consuming rice with reduced nutritional quality are also difficult to forecast." |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 12th, 2023 at 6:30pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 12th, 2023 at 6:10pm:
Now let's have a look at pm2.5 - "In 1996, the EPA’s CASAC concluded that the agency had not demonstrated that PM2.5 kills anyone. Over the next 23 years, the EPA rigged the CASAC review process so that such a conclusion wouldn’t be drawn again. But it did happen again. In 2019 after CASAC had be purged of its political bias, CASAC concluded that EPA’s health claims from PM2.5 were without a scientific basis." ... "In 2012, a group with which I am affiliated, sued EPA for conducting illegal human clinical research experiments involving PM2.5. By the early 2000s, EPA had concluded that any exposure to PM2.5 could kill in a matter of hours and that elderly and sick people were most at risk. To prove its point, conducted numerous experiments on elderly and sick people in which diesel exhaust from a truck was pipelined into an actual gas chamber where the human guinea pigs inhaled very high levels of PM2.5 for hours at a time.This was illegal because researchers are not allowed to conduct Nazi-like experiments where the purpose is to cause harm, especially without the informed consent of the human guinea pigs. In its defense to our lawsuit, the EPA stated that it conducted the PM2.5 experiments because the PM2.5 epidemiology was only statistics, and as all researchers know, statistics only demonstrate correlation and correlation is not the same as causation. " "Despite exposing hundreds of elderly (as old as 80) and sick people (with asthma and heart disease) to extraordinary levels of PM2.5 (as high as 75 times the level in average US outdoor air), not so much as a gasp, wheeze or cough, much less any death, was reported. The clinical research, in fact, provided not an ounce of biological plausibility to the (dubious) epidemiology." "Although PM2.5 levels in Chinese and Indian cities can reach quite high levels e.g., 100 times average outdoor levels in the US no actual deaths are ever reported. The reason for this is that the level of acidic gases always remains in a safe range. Simply inhaling PM2.5 alone kills no one. Coal miners don’t die earlier" "When smokers inhale, they inhale a lot of PM2.5. If you live in the US and inhale average air, you will inhale about 240 millionths of a gram of PM2.5 every day. And EPA claims that is a potentially deadly dose of PM2.5. Now if you are a smoker, not only will you inhale that 240 millionths-of-a-gram every 24 hours, but for every filtered cigarette you smoke, you will inhale and astounding 8,000 to 10,000 millionths-of-a-gram in the five minutes or so it takes to smoke a cigarette. But no one dies from smoking a single cigarette. " "The EPA invented PM2.5 as the most toxic substance known to man that is, any inhalation can result in death as soon as hours. Or, alternatively, PM2.5 may kill you after a lifetime of (unavoidably) inhaling it. No other substance known to man works this way and there is no body of science to support these claims. The EPA’s own courtroom admission undercuts its claims about the epidemiology and its own human experiments fail to provide any support to the motion that PM2.5 causes adverse health impact, let alone kills. The EPA has refused for decades to produce the data so independent scientists can try to replicate its epidemiologic studies. The agency has essentially ignored the results of a large well-conducted epidemiologic study that directly contradicts its own. All real-world data contradict EPA’s claims and the smoking epidemiology demonstrates quite clearly just how ludicrous EPA’s claims are." http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1678438132;start=2;action=threadpagedrop;reversetopic=0 |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 15th, 2023 at 1:48pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 14th, 2023 at 9:16pm:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/12/climate-models-warn-of-possible-super-el-nino-before-end-of-year If the models are wrong we will know that later this year. Prepare for El Nino—heat, bushfires, destruction of some infrastructure—rail lines may buckle. With three wet years be a lot of vegetation that will be drying starting August. Backburning, clearing of weeds etc etc a must for those in rural areas.[/quote] Poor JM. Believes in the models. Bow down you heathens Models RULE. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D And all this after BoM ruled that la Nina was ending...in 2021. ;) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 17th, 2023 at 11:24am
The latest -
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 17th, 2023 at 11:06am:
What they do is use two models of earth, one with humans and one without. If it doesn't happen on the humanless model earth, humans done it. Models RULE ok? ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Bobby. on Apr 17th, 2023 at 2:45pm
I wonder where the pollution really comes from?
Visual evidence that Australia is a pimple on the backside of the planet when it comes to population density and related CO2 emissions that are supposed to be the cause of "Climate Change". Can you see Australia on this spike graph map?? |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 18th, 2023 at 12:18pm
https://theconversation.com/torrents-of-antarctic-meltwater-are-slowing-the-currents-that-drive-our-vital-ocean-overturning-and-threaten-its-collapse-202108
From one of the top alarmists A model - as always ;D ;D ;D ;D Edit: From the Methods section of E23: “…and the multi-model ensemble mean of CMIP6 models under a high- anthropogenic-emissions scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5), for the future climate component from 2020 until 2050.” You know about even Gavin Schmidt, porogrammer extraordinaire saying don't't use RCP (SSP) 8.5. ::) https://theconversation.com/antarcticas-heart-of-ice-has-skipped-a-beat-time-to-take-our-medicine-202729 "In 2022 the summer minimum was less than 2 million square km for the first time since satellite records began. This summer, the minimum was even lower – just 1.7 million square km." Two years is now climate. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 18th, 2023 at 2:18pm
And again -
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 18th, 2023 at 7:04am:
and - Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 18th, 2023 at 2:09pm:
Poor JM doesn't realise it is not only bees. "The list of insect pollinators is long and includes many different species of bees, flies, wasps, beetles, butterflies and moths. Even species with a bad reputation such as houseflies and mosquitoes are important pollinators. " https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/insect-pollination.html I wonder if he thinks we will run out of houseflies soon. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -General Post by lee on Apr 21st, 2023 at 1:53pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 21st, 2023 at 11:18am:
The Great Pacific Garbage Dump, two floating rafts of plastic crap! Quote:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/29/plastics-cause-wide-ranging-health-issues-from-cancer-to-birth-defects-landmark-study-finds Study the article is based on: https://annalsofglobalhealth.org/articles/10.5334/aogh.4056/[/quote] Except - " Epidemiological studies have found both acute and chronic health impacts [123" "This finding is consistent with broader epidemiological evidence of an association between phthalate exposure and increased blood pressure in children [298]." "There is also extensive epidemiological information linking exposure to effects in humans, reviewed in Landrigan et al. [21] and in the Human Health section of this report (Section 4)." "Epidemiological studies conducted among children born or living near fracking sites have found elevated rates of childhood cancer, especially leukemia, and congenital heart defects [996, 998]." https://annalsofglobalhealth.org/articles/10.5334/aogh.4056 Epidemiological studies provide correlation. They DON'T provide causation. ::) The inverse correlation of pirates and temperature - |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -General Post by lee on Apr 21st, 2023 at 5:30pm
And again -
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 21st, 2023 at 5:05pm:
Strangely the report only goes back to 1950. I guess they never had reliable temperatures before that. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D "The temperature reached 48 °C (118.4 °F) in both Athens and Elefsina, Greece on July 10, 1977, setting the official European record high. There's also an unofficial record of the temperature climbing to 50 °C (122 °F) in Seville, Spain on August 4, 1881." https://www.currentresults.com/Weather-Extremes/europe.php Fancy temperature reaching over 40C at Heathrow. "Acres and acres tar and cement" Perhaps he can tell us what the normal level is in rivers? Does it vary? By how much? Strangely the photo doesn't say when this low level is. From the report "River discharge in 2022 was the second lowest on record across Europe, and marked the sixth consecutive year of below-average flows." The report limits itself here to being from 1991. ::) Precipitation can't have been that bad. The report merely notes it being "below average". As for JM's bedwetting about moving crops north..."Winter was generally wetter than average in northern and eastern Europe, while drier-than-average conditions occurred in southwestern Europe." ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Bobby. on Apr 23rd, 2023 at 7:39am Quote:
Monk doesn't know. ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 23rd, 2023 at 12:38pm Bobby. wrote on Apr 23rd, 2023 at 7:39am:
That's because he gets his science from the Guardian. ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -General Post by lee on Apr 24th, 2023 at 2:06pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 24th, 2023 at 5:30am:
But not from BoM- "The ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. This means that while the El Niño–Southern Oscillation is currently neutral, there is approximately a 50% chance that El Niño may develop later in 2023. This is about twice the normal likelihood. A significant amount of warmer than average water exists in the sub-surface of the western and central tropical Pacific Ocean, and warm sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies continue to strengthen in the eastern tropical Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has decreased to negative values over the past fortnight. Warming ocean temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and decreasing SOI values can be a precursor of El Niño development. El Niño WATCH is not a guarantee that El Niño will occur, rather an indication that some of the typical precursors are currently occurring. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that El Niño thresholds are likely to be approached or exceeded during the southern hemisphere winter. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 24th, 2023 at 3:38pm
Even if we use the 8th of April for the Bureau's model on the southern oscillation index gives us the impression that we have been in El Nino conditions since April. And although graphs claim that it is an El Nino watch, those graphs are close enough to El Nino conditions, we might as well start calling the climate we are experiencing as El Nino.
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Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 24th, 2023 at 4:20pm
Yes. When it doesn't agree with the definition...change the definition. ::)
And of course make it a SUPER El Nino at the same time. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 24th, 2023 at 5:28pm
There is a forecast of strong El Nino conditions by June to August. Possibly severe from then onwards, or a return to neutral by September (depending on BOM's report later during the winter).
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Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 24th, 2023 at 6:51pm
There may or may not be. Anything other than that is not science. It is ok in science to say you don't know. ::)
Of course it is the climate models (bow down you climate heathens) that predict a SUPER El Nino. ;D ;D ;D ;D |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 25th, 2023 at 5:18pm lee wrote on Apr 24th, 2023 at 6:51pm:
The Bureau creates models of forecasting, based on previous historical data that matches the prevailing weather patterns. The Bureau uses forecast models from various sources around the world. It is up to the researcher to decide which model is the most likely accurate forecast. And if living a life of 4 decades does not give you experience to sense cold, dry wintery weather reminiscent of El Nino conditions, you are always welcome to rely on Bureau forecasts to say that we will experience El Nino conditions. But don't "tsk, tsk" the Bureau just because you don't want to call it a strong El Nino. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Bobby. on Apr 25th, 2023 at 5:28pm
Well - Monk is a Marxist:
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Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 25th, 2023 at 5:33pm UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 25th, 2023 at 5:18pm:
Seeing as weather models are only good for 7-10 days and climate models have shown no propensity for forecast, use them at your own risk. UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 25th, 2023 at 5:18pm:
The Bureau have said NOTHING about a strong El Nino. "All climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that El Niño thresholds are likely to be approached or exceeded during the southern hemisphere winter. " Nothing about a SUPER El Nino. So an El Nino is likely, nothing about its strength. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 26th, 2023 at 12:32pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 26th, 2023 at 10:20am:
Poor JM doesn't realise the differing properties of air and water. Water heats and cools much more slowly. ::) He still hasn't answered the question of what happens when the Sun goes dark, as he insists it has no bearing on weather or climate. ::) ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Sophia on Apr 26th, 2023 at 1:25pm
Speaking of China and India…
Did anyone see on a report last night… India’s population is exceeding China. China has gone backward with population due to one child policy back in 80s I think it was. And the majority born were boys (hence many abortions of girls making it so). So China has an in balance leading to less breeding. I haven’t been to I India…. I have seen China… it’s a clean country… the living standard is good with a lot of high rise apartments for the masses to lease, when I look at films of India… it looks like living conditions are dirtier or poorer. I could be wrong. But I said to the other half, at least India is no threat to world peace as the impression with power mad CCP are. Their populations both exceed 1 billion …. Here we are in Oz with a mere 26-27 million. Why are we being made to feel guilty about world pollution? |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 26th, 2023 at 2:22pm lee wrote on Apr 25th, 2023 at 5:33pm:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean I would say this would suggest otherwise. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 26th, 2023 at 2:56pm UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 26th, 2023 at 2:22pm:
That merely suggests an El Nino is likely, not how SUPER it will be. "While all models suggest continued warming in the central to eastern Pacific, and possible development of El Niño later in 2023, model accuracy when forecasting through autumn is lower than at other times of the year, and therefore ENSO outlooks that extend beyond autumn should be viewed with some caution." |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Bobby. on Apr 26th, 2023 at 2:58pm lee wrote on Apr 26th, 2023 at 2:56pm:
It's still very humid and wet in the southern states. It's cloudy nearly all the time. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 26th, 2023 at 3:11pm lee wrote on Apr 26th, 2023 at 2:56pm:
I do not know if you were paying attention to the year 2019, but the rainfall was very little for the year. Looking at the ENSO, they are similar to what is and what is forecasted for the remainder of the year. Unless there is a drastic change in sea temperature for September onwards, we will see a very dry winter followed by a very dry spring. I figure summer will be wet. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 26th, 2023 at 4:31pm UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 26th, 2023 at 3:11pm:
"The Great Puny El Niño of 2018–19 continued through March, and forecasters predict it will likely remain through the summer and possibly continue into the fall." https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2019-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-you-are-here So not a SUPER El Nino year. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -General Post by lee on Apr 27th, 2023 at 12:54pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 27th, 2023 at 8:29am:
Do the authorities in those two regions have the resources to do anything about extreme heat? Quote:
This is where planting trees on public and helping with big trees on private land, making roads, footpaths, roofs of a lighter color. In Adelaide, heat capital of Australia, BLACK bricks are being used on new units! Black! Lot of roofs are dark too, stupid! Sure there MIGHT be ceiling/wall insulation but you do EVERYTHING to keep residences, offices etc cool in increasingly hot summers! Quote:
Blocking weather systems can make extreme weather hang around instead of moving. Usually these are high pressure systems, anticyclones. The paper includes a table of regions most likely to experience extreme heat. Too large to reproduce here it is at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-37554-1/tables/1 VERY surprised Adelaide is not in that table! Perhaps because Adelaide has experienced so many heat wave records already? Worth reading this paper tho it gets a bit abstruse here and there! ;D. Still enough can be gleaned from it by a reader of average intelligence and education. Many critters are in for a rough time. Humans will have it bad—what about unprotected animals in the fields? Can they find shade?[/quote] So let's look at these alarming figures. - Australia, Queensland - up by 0.1C, population up projected 1.66. Nope doesn't seem drastic at all PNG? In the tropics and according to CO2 theory the least affected area. " As in30, we use ERA5, a reanalysis dataset, as a proxy for observations10 (see Methods)." Say what, they don't use observations? Apparently re-analysis can do anything. And although Australia is mentioned in the table posted by JM, not ONE single reference in the paper. Under "data availability" - "CanESM5 and MIROC6 data are available from the CMIP6 search interface (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/)." You know CMIP6 group of models that run too hot. (Hausfather, Schmidt) "Table 1 Regions where a record-breaking event is most likely From: The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves" Clicking on the link takes you back to the main article. Circular reasoning at its finest. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 27th, 2023 at 1:12pm lee wrote on Apr 26th, 2023 at 4:31pm:
Getting 290mm of rainfall for the year would not be a low-end El Nino. That was a severe drought brought about by a super El Nino. bugger, you really are ignorant. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 27th, 2023 at 2:38pm UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 27th, 2023 at 1:12pm:
Tell that to NOAA the author of climate.gov. UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 27th, 2023 at 1:12pm:
Not according to NOAA. So let's look at BoM - 2019 - El Nino Watch and Alert - no El Nino. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/#tabs=ENSO-Forecast-history I just go where the data leads me. ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 27th, 2023 at 3:34pm
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/history/rainfall/
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=History&enso-impacts=La-Ni%C3%B1a-impacts Let us have a look. A lack of rainfall over a considerable area of Australia in the year 2019 would indicate an El Nino pattern. And according to the graphs, the southern oscillation index indicated a mild El Nino pattern. Not as significant as the year 2015/2016 El Nino. But, definitely enough to help bring about the wildfires of the year 2019/2020 around the eastern states of Australia. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 27th, 2023 at 3:44pm UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 27th, 2023 at 3:34pm:
No that is a logical fallacy. Lack of rainfall is only one indicator. ::) The majhor one is oceanic temerature in ENSO 3.4 area. "But a look at records reveals that, in Australia, the rain and temperatures during El Niño and neutral years are now almost identical. This was no more apparent than 2018 and 2019 when record drought and temperatures occurred without the presence of El Niño." https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-11/what-follows-la-nina-weather-pattern-in-australia/102076404 UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 27th, 2023 at 3:34pm:
Not even close. Los Ninos don't bring wildfire. Humans bring about 90% of wildfire. Now, if you were arguing that people cause more wildfire due to Los Ninos, I would like to see the study. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 27th, 2023 at 3:58pm
WTF?? Are you suggesting that the Bureau has to declare the year an El Nino event before we can call it El Nino? I figure that we only need about 3 months of a negative southern oscillation index, beyond neutral conditions, before we can call the climate in an El Nino situation.
Geez, you are starting to sound like one of those facebook experts that think 30 years of observations in climate change is not long enough and "weather is not climate". |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 27th, 2023 at 4:22pm UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 27th, 2023 at 3:58pm:
And if NOAA doesn't declare it as well? ::) If it doesn't fit the definition, change the definition. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 27th, 2023 at 3:58pm:
Well, according to the WMO (World Meteorological Society), climate is the average of 30 years weather. That is one cycle. You can't pull much information about trends out of one cycle. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 27th, 2023 at 4:40pm
There never is a definition that people all agree upon about the word "climate". One such definition, taken from dictionary.com, states: "the composite or generally prevailing weather conditions of a region, as temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloudiness, and winds, throughout the year, averaged over a series of years". How many years to average the climatic conditions, it does not say.
I have actually debated with the Chicken Little Climate Alarmists about how my area of the world has not seen great expansions of hottest or coldest temperatures in a 30 year period. In 1990, we had the hottest day on record in my town -- 45.3°C. That record has not been bettered. We have had a few days where the temperature has reached 44°C. But, we do not seem to see many days get above 40°C. Again with minimum temperatures -- our record being -1°C, back in 1949. The lowest temperature I have observed was about 1°C, sometime recently. The response I got: "It is a good thing (UnSubRocky's) town is not what we base climactic change research upon". |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 27th, 2023 at 6:20pm
All science relies on definitions. You can't just choose a metric that you want. ::)
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Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 27th, 2023 at 10:14pm lee wrote on Apr 27th, 2023 at 6:20pm:
That misses my point completely. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 28th, 2023 at 12:21pm UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 27th, 2023 at 10:14pm:
Nope. BoM, NOAA etc are supposed to be scientists. It is their definition. You can, make up your own definition if you like, with the parameters you like. It will only be a definition with meaning to you, not others. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on Apr 28th, 2023 at 4:07pm
So, basically, I am ALSO right.
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Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 28th, 2023 at 5:56pm
https://www.eumetsat.int/tropospheric-warming-and-stratospheric-cooling-21st-century
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 28th, 2023 at 4:31pm:
There is nothing to refute. They mention GHG's plural. They don't say if it is increased water vapour (as postulated by CO2 theory) or CO2 itself. ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 28th, 2023 at 6:53pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 28th, 2023 at 4:31pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 28th, 2023 at 5:59pm:
Poor JM couldn't help himself. The paper doesn't distinguish between GHG's. Perhaps he confused CDR (CO2 Removal) with CDR (Climate Data Retrieval) ::) So sad to see him denying CO2 theory. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 28th, 2023 at 4:17pm:
So medium confidence that they are right and that CMIP5 and CMIP6 run hot. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 30th, 2023 at 1:18pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 30th, 2023 at 6:37am:
Nope. According to CO2 theory water vapour has already increased by 7%. "(The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report states total atmospheric water vapor is increasing 1 to 2% per decade.) For every degree Celsius that Earth’s atmospheric temperature rises, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere can increase by about 7%, according to the laws of thermodynamics." https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/ So as NASA must agree with the IPCC, else they wouldn't report it, we can see increased water vapour. ::) The responders are purely looking at delay in the readings due to the prismatic effect. That delay occurs for ALL GHG's. No models here. TPW fro m satellites. Or do you only believe them when it suits? ::) Also there is nothing in the actual paper on instrument accuracy. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 30th, 2023 at 2:52pm UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 30th, 2023 at 1:26pm:
I am banned. He doesn't like his hypotheses questioned. ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on Apr 30th, 2023 at 4:12pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 30th, 2023 at 2:59pm:
Climate is change whether it is AGW or not. He cannot abide a differing view on how good (or bad) any AGW is. He only sees bad. Posts from the Guardian instead of papers. Mis-attributes stuff to AGW. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Bobby. on Apr 30th, 2023 at 4:17pm lee wrote on Apr 30th, 2023 at 2:52pm:
It's better to keep Environment topics here not at Cats, Critters and Dicks. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Bobby. on Apr 30th, 2023 at 4:59pm |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on May 1st, 2023 at 9:01pm
If Monk is still banned, the ban should be lifted. I have a kind of obsessive compulsion about keeping environmental topics in their forum.
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Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on May 2nd, 2023 at 5:02pm
You are bitching to the wrong person.
" Re: Rules and banned members. Reply #9 - Apr 14th, 2023 at 5:49pm Monk, you are now banned for 1 week from the environment MRB. You can return on the 22nd of April 2023. PMs sent to mods and you. You were given ample warnings. " |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by UnSubRocky on May 2nd, 2023 at 6:29pm
Not bitching to anyone. I just figure that the issue could be resolved. But, since you guys seem more interesting doing the "not talking to you" in your own forums, I suppose this is the best course of action.
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Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on May 2nd, 2023 at 6:33pm
I would but he would impose a total ban for me posting on his thread. ::)
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Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Bobby. on May 2nd, 2023 at 6:38pm lee wrote on May 2nd, 2023 at 6:33pm:
Monk banned you permanently - me too: Quote:
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Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on May 2nd, 2023 at 6:39pm Jovial Monk wrote on May 1st, 2023 at 5:36pm:
Nope. Think about it. The move makes the complainant fight through the state courts first and then the Supreme Court. The question is "who has the deepest pockets"? |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Bobby. on May 2nd, 2023 at 6:39pm lee wrote on May 2nd, 2023 at 5:02pm:
Monk only got a 1 week ban but after what he's done since then he deserves a permanent ban. :-/ |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Jovial Monk on May 2nd, 2023 at 6:42pm
Apart from lee happy to talk about some point for the 3rd. .. 5th. . .10th time there is the Mod here.
He is not stable. He banned me and JohnSmith for a couple years, saying he had to “delete page after page of abuse” which was a lie. If I were to start a long-running thread like my “Sun” thread I know I could be banned for months any morment. I don’t chew the cud, that lee does is no enticement to me. That Booby is not mentally stable is no enticement to me. Off topic threads seem to be the thing nowadays—Relationshits is really Games II MRB now. Booby started that when, encouraged by Setanta he started the “Cats and Critters topics now here” thread. He copied and posts from Cats and Critters to his C&Cs thread, copied stuff from the Cats and Critters board on my fine forum. That was all fine for Booby, he enjoyed stealing my topics from here and my fine forum, that was fun. The idiot did not like me copying his posts to the the rightful MRB, that wasn’t fun, apparently. The idiot STOLE videos I had taken of my dog, Socks! Idiot tried to blackmail me into letting him post them on vile ShitShute. I cannot trust the idiot. It is time someone else was given a chance to Mod Environment. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Bobby. on May 2nd, 2023 at 6:50pm Jovial Monk wrote on May 2nd, 2023 at 6:42pm:
Monk, have you read my rules? https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1612043899 I can add that at least a modicum of respect is to be shown to other posters. Posters should attack the argument and not the person posting. Repeated ad hominem attacks as per here: http://www.ozpolitic.com/articles/logical-fallacies.html#ad%20hominem could result in global moderator intervention. I also add: don't post disgusting pictures. Don't use this forum - this MRB - to denigrate me - or anyone else. I reserve the right to delete, or modify any post here if it contains abuse. Abuse is not allowed here. Any other rules could be added as needed in the future. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Jovial Monk on May 2nd, 2023 at 6:55pm
Respect is earned. It cannot be commanded.
Tell me where I was wrong, but I wasn’t. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Bobby. on May 2nd, 2023 at 7:01pm Jovial Monk wrote on May 2nd, 2023 at 6:55pm:
Monk, you have shown no remorse. Cease posting. You are hereby banned for 2 weeks. You can post again on the 17th May 2023. PM to be sent to you and the Mods now. |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on May 2nd, 2023 at 7:02pm Jovial Monk wrote on May 2nd, 2023 at 6:42pm:
Yeah you just lie. Tell us how a greenhouse generates heat from the CO2 trapped inside again, when the same CO2 level is present both in and out. I like a good laugh. ::) Jovial Monk wrote on May 2nd, 2023 at 6:42pm:
But you have said they were boring as bat sh1t. I guess you prefer bat sh1t on your forum. ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by lee on May 3rd, 2023 at 5:54pm Jovial Monk wrote on May 3rd, 2023 at 1:38pm:
Obviously JM has comprehension issues. lee wrote on Apr 21st, 2023 at 5:30pm:
That is where the tundra is. Not down south. So not in drought. ::) |
Title: Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC Post by Bobby. on May 3rd, 2023 at 10:44pm
Listen Guys,
please don't quote from Monk's - Cats, Critters and Dicks MRB here. I don't want his filth here - he's banned for 2 weeks. Go instead to his MRB to comment directly. I will delete the quoted posts soon. |
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