"In October of 2024, the isolated small city of  Broken Hill in New South Wales, Australia with a 36 MW load could not be reliably served by 200 MW of wind, a 53 MW solar array, significant residential solar, and a large 50 MW battery all supplemented by diesel generators.

Many people falsely believe that wind, solar and batteries have been demonstrated to provide grid support and deliver energy independently in large real word applications. Few people realize that we are a long way away from having wind, solar and batteries support a large power system without significant amounts of conventional spinning generation (nuclear, gas, coal, hydro, geothermal) on-line to support the grid.

The recent outages occurring in Broken Hill help illustrate the inability of wind, solar and batteries to support electric grids without significant help from machines rotating in synchronism with the grid. (Note – wind power is produced by rotation but not in synchronism with the grid).

Around 20,000 people live in the Broken Hill area. Over $650 million in investment made Broken Hill home to a 200 MW wind plant, a 53 MW solar array, and a large battery that could provide 50 MW of power for 100 MWh through advanced grid forming inverters. Broken Hill is home to over 6,000 small-scale solar systems providing a per capita energy small solar production level almost twice the Australian average.  The area also contains two poorly maintained diesel-powered gas turbine generators in the area, one which was off-line for maintenance.



     In 2018, Broken Hill City Council announced its goal to become Australia’s first carbon-free city by 2030. Three years ago, then mayor Darriea Turley welcomed the announcement that AGL was proceeding with plans to build a grid-scale battery, which the company claimed would be a reliable backup power source for 10,000 homes. “This is a great opportunity for Broken Hill and renewable energies,” Turley told the ABC. “What they will see is when there is an outage, the battery would click into operation.”

In October of 2024 this area was separated from the larger grid when the interconnecting transmission towers went down in a bad storm. Loads in Broken Hill are limited to  about 20 MW of mining load and 17 MW that serve the local town for a combined load of 36 MW. The over 300 MWs of renewable energy from wind, solar and battery storage, along with a diesel generator were not able to provide reliable power to support the town alone.

https://i0.wp.com/judithcurry.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Screen-Shot-2024-12-05-at-9.24.00-AM.png

A 25 MW gas plant  or a 25 MW hydro plant would have done a much better job than the combined efforts of 200 MW of wind, 53 MW of solar, the 34 MW of distributed solar and 50 MW battery. The consequences for Broken Hill were serious. The Australian ran an article entitled: Broken Hill: Powerless and left to live like mushrooms where it described the situation:

    The power comes on from time to time, but goes out just as quickly. It gives us just enough time to power our phones and read emails from energy providers sent the day before, alerting us to the fact the power was about to go out. They also warn we don’t have much time, and to avoid using unnecessary electrical devices – air conditioners, fridges or fans that need a power point.

In theory the area could be served, but in reality as noted by Jo Nova, “The fridges in the pharmacies failed, so all medications had to be destroyed and emergency replacements sent in. Schools have been closed. Freezers of meat are long gone…  Emergency trucks are bringing in food finally “

https://judithcurry.com/2024/12/05/wind-and-solar-cant-support-the-grid/#more-31718

So over 300MW could not provide for a 36MW load, when the interconnector went down, even though the sun was shining and the wind blowing. ::)

That's from a 9 times overbuild. ;)

"Scientists are calling for the urgent establishment of a national agency responsible for coordinating the science required to transform Australia’s response to climate change.

Australia will struggle to achieve net zero emissions, mitigate risks against natural disasters or ensure water security and agricultural success unless we update our approach to climate science research.

A leadership vacuum exists within Australia’s climate science research strategic plans.

Ambitious and strategic climate science research programs are scattered across several institutions, and none are tasked with coordinating the answers to critical questions about Australia’s unique climate.

Australian Academy of Science Fellow and Chair of the Academy’s National Committee for Earth System Science (NCESS), Professor Andy Pitman AO said that without coordination across existing research programs, we are building our climate policies on crumbling foundations.

“A unifying agency is needed to address the critical gaps in our understanding of Australia’s climate and the impacts of change, and to support and engage the excellent individual researchers we have.”

Scientists have recommended this coordination capability be achieved by establishing an Australian Institute for Earth System Science which prioritises long-term national oversight, strategy and implementation of climate science research."

https://www.science.org.au/news-and-events/news-and-media-releases/australia-needs-a-coordinated-national-institute-to-respond-to-the-changing-climate

Crumbling foundations? Oh noes. ::)

"With the implementation of Recommendation 1, Australia can establish the science foundations for an evidence-based approach to climate risk, and partner with our allies to provide climate intelligence across our region. Without the establishment of a strong science-based foundation, we risk investments that lead to maladaptation, incorrect disclosure of financial risk by business, and erroneous assessments of national and regional risks associated with climate change."

https://www.science.org.au/files/userfiles/support/reports-and-plans/2024/decadal-plan-earth-system-science-2024-33.pdf

Pitman is Chair of that Systems Science

lee wrote on Dec 14^th, 2024 at 9:37pm:

"Scientists are calling for the urgent establishment of a national agency responsible for coordinating the science required to transform Australia’s response to climate change. Australia will struggle to achieve net zero emissions, mitigate risks against natural disasters or ensure water security and agricultural success unless we update our approach to climate science research. A leadership vacuum exists within Australia’s climate science research strategic plans. Ambitious and strategic climate science research programs are scattered across several institutions, and none are tasked with coordinating the answers to critical questions about Australia’s unique climate. Australian Academy of Science Fellow and Chair of the Academy’s National Committee for Earth System Science (NCESS), Professor Andy Pitman AO said that without coordination across existing research programs, we are building our climate policies on crumbling foundations. “A unifying agency is needed to address the critical gaps in our understanding of Australia’s climate and the impacts of change, and to support and engage the excellent individual researchers we have.” Scientists have recommended this coordination capability be achieved by establishing an Australian Institute for Earth System Science which prioritises long-term national oversight, strategy and implementation of climate science research." https://www.science.org.au/news-and-events/news-and-media-releases/australia-needs-a-coordinated-national-institute-to-respond-to-the-changing-climate Crumbling foundations? Oh noes. ::) "With the implementation of Recommendation 1, Australia can establish the science foundations for an evidence-based approach to climate risk, and partner with our allies to provide climate intelligence across our region. Without the establishment of a strong science-based foundation, we risk investments that lead to maladaptation, incorrect disclosure of financial risk by business, and erroneous assessments of national and regional risks associated with climate change." https://www.science.org.au/files/userfiles/support/reports-and-plans/2024/decadal-plan-earth-system-science-2024-33.pdf Pitman is Chair of that Systems Science

It is a commendable idea but I fear it would be captured by political interests from the Greens end of the spectrum. It would be another institution for them to march through and capture.

Pitman's expertise is land surface processes affecting climate. Very interesting. Much of the carbon credit companies buy is about land surface use, in the form of tree planting. But I heard yesterday that new research from ANU shows that the system is rigged for financial gain. Its official review by Chubb (ex Melbourne Uni VC and chief scientist) did not even look at any actual evidence of tree plantings.

https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/futuretense/cities-that-create-rain-ai-warfare-carbon-offset/104453540
https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/widespread-non-compliance-and-poor-performance-in-worlds-largest-nature-based-carbon-removal
https://reporter.anu.edu.au/all-stories/chubb-review-of-australias-carbon-credit-scheme-falls-short

https://youtu.be/Vw3jw5IYL2c?si=PpW3hC8w0mMzmOl_

We're all moving to Mars anyway. So drain this world to death, in getting there.

I’d say the first job for Andy and his super-institute should actually be to set the record straight for the UN’s socialist Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Antonio says “global boiling” (100degC) has arrived, but of Melbourne when I last checked, the water’s only 18degC, so CO2 emissions aren’t boiling our oceans away, as Guterres’ mate Al Gore  claims.

There seems kinship between Andy’s would-be super-institute and Germany’s horrid Potsdam Institute (PIK). Out of the PIK came that infamous 2010 quote of Dr Professor Ottmar Edenhofer, co-chair of IPCC Working Group 111:

“…one has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. Instead, climate change policy is about how we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth…Climate policy has almost nothing to do anymore with environmental protection. The next world climate summit in Cancun is actually an economy summit during which the distribution of the world’s resources will be negotiated.”[10]

The Potsdam crowd – also climate advisers to the Pope — laid the theoretical foundations for Germany to run itself over the renewables cliff, with sky-high power prices gutting Germany’s famed manufacturing and bringing winter misery to consumers. Hence the rise in Germany, as in Italy and Netherlands, of the rational Right parties.

Australians owe Dr Pitman a large debt for his extraordinary candour.We suffer a daily media deluge of climate lies and fantasy while in Canberra maniacal ministers think nothing of spending billions on Snowy 2.0, windmills to devastate our rainforest ranges, and interminable “fixes” and subsidies to the electricity grid they’re busy destroying. Pitman’s analysis – notwithstanding his faith in net zero –   is truly a tipping point in the struggle for rational policy.