And I know it aint over till its over but still----------------


AdvertisementKEVIN Rudd and Labor — rather than John Howard and the Coalition — have got the big bounce from APEC, in an Age/Nielsen poll that finds more than six in 10 people believe the Government will lose the looming federal election.

Mr Rudd's Mandarin-speaking performances at APEC have apparently helped boost his personal approval by a massive 8 points to 67 per cent, equal with his March record.

In results that will deepen the sense of crisis that is rocking the Government and throw more doubt on Mr Howard's leadership, Labor has widened its two-party lead by 4 points to 57-43 per cent — and Mr Rudd is now 13 points ahead as preferred PM. More than four in 10 Coalition supporters believe Mr Rudd will win the election.

Mr Howard yesterday was forced again to confront his future. Questioned at his news conference at APEC's conclusion, he said: "Yes, I do intend to contest (the election). I intend to contest it as leader."

Earlier, farewelling APEC leaders, he said: "I look forward to seeing them at future meetings."

Mr Howard is under pressure to call the election this week to stop speculation about his leadership, but some senior sources are adamant he won't go so early. Parliament is scheduled to sit for a fortnight, starting tomorrow. The leadership speculation will intensify with the Age poll result. Mr Howard remains determined to stay, according to sources, although if cabinet makes it clear he should step down, he would.

Several ministers appearing on the Sunday television talk shows publicly backed Mr Howard staying. But the ministry is not united and sources said at least one cabinet minister was known to advocate a switch to Peter Costello.

The Costello forces are keeping their heads down, although the Treasurer would take the job if Mr Howard decided to step down.

The Prime Minister will address a Government parties meeting tomorrow night or Wednesday to try to steady nerves and refocus attention on the domestic agenda after APEC.

Some senior Liberals have been concerned at the distraction of APEC, which has taken Mr Howard away from domestic issues. But the aftermath of APEC will continue for a couple of days.

Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono meets Mr Howard today and Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper speaks to Parliament tomorrow.

The current 57-43 per cent two-party lead is also in line with the Nielsen six-months weighted average (six polls, 8115 interviews) and the six-months weighted average of all polls (46 polls, 51,320 interviews).