Australian Politics Forum - Changed support for major parties: study

freediver

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Changed support for major parties: study
Oct 11^th, 2007 at 12:28pm

http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Changed-support-for-major-parties-study/2007/10/11/1191696023306.html

Traditionally the party of the working class, federal Labor has increased its appeal with intellectuals, new research shows.

While the opposition has shifted its appeal base, so too has the government, now more popular among blue collar and TAFE-educated voters.

A News Ltd study has shown the government has 21 marginal electorates in which there are a less than average number of tertiary degree-holders.

Liberal and Labor share Australia's top 20 electorates for degree holders, but the coalition has 17 of the top 20 TAFE-educated seats, 16 of which are Liberal and one National, The Australian said.

The research suggests less-educated marginal seats could prove to be the deciding factor in the upcoming election, where 13 of the 21 marginal seats also have above-average numbers of home borrowers.

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cautious connie Full Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 215	Re: Changed support for major parties: study Reply #1 - Oct 12^th, 2007 at 8:26pm Sounds like the Lib's interest rate rises may well go against them in those electorates.
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Tanwin

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Re: Changed support for major parties: study
Reply #2 - Oct 13^th, 2007 at 4:21am

I think the 'me-too' ism of both parties has been the reason for the electorate shift. Labor seems to have based their campaign so far on Howard's IR, those I guess who are not affected by it will vote the same.

What pisses me is boofheads like Garrett, who have been singing (loosely described) for years about uranium, trees etc but now he has to toe the party line he becomes an instant hypocrite.

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freediver Gold Member Offline www.ozpolitic.com Posts: 49133 At my desk.	Re: Changed support for major parties: study Reply #3 - Oct 15^th, 2007 at 9:56am Hi Termite and welcome to OzPolitic. I think the two major parties in Australia have always agreed on a lot. The only thing that has changed is how much they are prepared to acknowledge this, which is a purely political decision.
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Acid Monkey

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Re: Changed support for major parties: study
Reply #4 - Oct 15^th, 2007 at 11:36pm

freediver wrote on Oct 11^th, 2007 at 12:28pm:

Traditionally the party of the working class, federal Labor has increased its appeal with intellectuals, new research shows.

The Liberal party and their supporters have systematically and publically attacked all public intellectual and social commentators who disagrees with them. Scientists have been gagged, and outspoken public servants and whistle blowers ostracised. Sociologists, psychologists, writers, university lecturers and other academics who dare raise a voice of disagreement are labelled wholesale as "left-wing, socialist, latte drinkers and chardonnay sippers" without even retorting the argument.

A recent and perfect example is the tainting of Brigid Van Wanrooy's reputation (co-author of Australia@Work) firstly as "union officials parading as academics" and then later as a former union staffer and union sympathiser. This despite the fact that she is a reseacher for the Sydney University and had worked for the Liberal govt under Peter Reith at the Dept of Employment and Workplace Relations.

There shouldn't be any surprises why the intellectuals are turning away in droves from the Liberal govt.

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IQSRLOW

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Re: Changed support for major parties: study
Reply #5 - Oct 16^th, 2007 at 12:12am

There shouldn't be any surprises why the intellectuals are turning away in droves from the Liberal govt.

Not that I even remotely think that this is happening...but boo f*ckin hoo. We are becoming more competitive on an international scale which we need to be. The resources sector shows there are a lot of happy people earning VERY good money as a result of AWA's.

Sure, the hours are long if you want to earn the good money but the benefits are good. Another case of 'oooh, they have what I haven't got- I want that too-without actually value adding" Roll Eyes

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Acid Monkey

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Re: Changed support for major parties: study
Reply #6 - Oct 16^th, 2007 at 1:12am

I fail to see how public intellectuals and social commentators doing their job can be done out of jealousy? You may as well say that Andrew Bolt (hypothetically) slagging the Rudd's holiday home expense because he was jealous of Tanya Rudd's wealth. Andrew Bolt as an op-ed writer is a commentator as well although not an academic one. As a journalist he is largely exempt under freedom of the press. However, as intellectuals formalising their opinions are not privy to such exemptions and largely open themselves up to full, up close and personal attacks and ostracisations from the Party and their media supporters.

Take Rupert Murdoch's The Australian newspaper - for many years they have publish articles and op-eds criticising and ridiculing any scientists, commentators, environmentalists and proponents of climate change. Then Mr. Murdoch suddenly became a climate change convert (largely because of his daughter, I believe) and ever since then the The Australian has also fallen into line. It wasn't long after that (4 months, I think) that JWH also suddenly and surprisingly claimed the same. Suddenly, it's okay for scientist to comment of the climate without fear of backlash. Although unlike Murdoch, JWH has done nothing to convince me that he really is a convert.

Cheers!

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Progs

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Re: Changed support for major parties: study
Reply #7 - Oct 22^nd, 2007 at 6:38pm

I suspect that the reason for this shift is due to the decline of wealth-based politics. The decline of unions and the increasingly a-political nature of the economy has this case-in-point. People are voting more according to their "values" whatever they may be. Poor people are more prepared to vote conservative and wealthy people are more prepared to vote for the left. This is not unique to Australia. It is increasingly happening in many Western countries such as Britain, France, the US and Canada. In Australia we have seen many blue ribbon seats become increasingly vulnerable to Labor and we have seen many working-class seats become vulnerable to the Liberals.

Another reason for this transfer is the increased concentration of wealth amongst educated people. Doctors, lawyers, teachers, accountants etc. educated people are far more likely to be to the left on social issues and centrist on economic issues. As the Labor party has moved to the centre on econmic issues, so have these people become increasingly attracted to the Labor party. Whether or not their votes for Labor will be enough to counter the votes of the working-class for Liberals remains to be seen. I would not be suprised if in 30 or 40 years time, Northern Sydney would be a labor stronghold while Western Sydney would a Liberal counter-part.

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freediver

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Aborigines don't want apology: Brough
Reply #8 - Oct 22^nd, 2007 at 6:51pm

Poor people are more prepared to vote conservative and wealthy people are more prepared to vote for the left.

Do you have any stats to back this up?

Another reason for this transfer is the increased concentration of wealth amongst educated people.

Are you tallking comparitivey, or do you mean we are all wealthier and more educated? If you are talking comparitively, I think the trend is in the opposite direction.

The only real trend I see is the 'intellectuals' turning away from the coalition, because of the coalition's stifling of CSIRO scientists on climate change, their clampdown on FOI laws, use of the term 'latte sipping', general negative attitude towards academics etc. The last two are more from supporters of the coalition, but it still hurt them just as much.

Here's an example. Since when did all Uni students, or all aboriginies, have the same opinion? He is trying to divide the community.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Aborigines-dont-want-apology-Brough/2007/10/22/1192940978971.html

University students may want the government to formally apologise to indigenous people but Aborigines do not, Indigenous Affairs Minister Mal Brough says.

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« Last Edit: Oct 22^nd, 2007 at 8:34pm by freediver »

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Progs

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Re: Aborigines don't want apology: Brough
Reply #9 - Oct 27^th, 2007 at 11:03pm

freediver wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2007 at 6:51pm:

Poor people are more prepared to vote conservative and wealthy people are more prepared to vote for the left.

Do you have any stats to back this up?

Another reason for this transfer is the increased concentration of wealth amongst educated people.

Are you tallking comparitivey, or do you mean we are all wealthier and more educated? If you are talking comparitively, I think the trend is in the opposite direction.

The only real trend I see is the 'intellectuals' turning away from the coalition, because of the coalition's stifling of CSIRO scientists on climate change, their clampdown on FOI laws, use of the term 'latte sipping', general negative attitude towards academics etc. The last two are more from supporters of the coalition, but it still hurt them just as much.

Here's an example. Since when did all Uni students, or all aboriginies, have the same opinion? He is trying to divide the community.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Aborigines-dont-want-apology-Brough/2007/10/22/1192940978971.html

University students may want the government to formally apologise to indigenous people but Aborigines do not, Indigenous Affairs Minister Mal Brough says.

These are only my suspicions based on observations that I have made. Think about it. Who do the parties increasingly target? the Liberals try to pander to the working class with their tax cuts and dog-whistle politics while Labor attempts to appeal to the wealthy by ditching the Union movement and by becoming service providers rather than a political party.

Also look at the seats. Dobell, Hughes, Cook and Lindsay in NSW, La Trobe, Casey, Corangamite and McEwan in Vic., Blair, Moreton, Petrie, Bonner and Bowman in Qld. and Cowan, Swan, Hasluck and Canning in WA amongst others. All these seats are working class seats, all seats that would traditionally be Labor, yet they are either safe or marginal Liberal.

Check out the link for info on North Sydney, the achetypal kind of seat I think will go Labor sooner or later.

http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/commentary2.shtml

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