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Question: Who is correct about temperatures trends?

Grendel    
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The Australian Bureau of Meteorology    
  5 (71.4%)




Total votes: 7
« Last Modified by: muso on: Jun 16th, 2009 at 10:31am »

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Astroturfing at its best (Read 6243 times)
muso
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Astroturfing at its best
Jun 14th, 2009 at 10:05am
 
Astroturf is a kind of synthetic grass. The term Astroturfing means 'rabble rousing'. What you do is to employ a PR company to create a rumour, and make it appear to be a genuine grass-roots reaction, whereas it's really just fake grass.

Example:

In August 2006, a science journalist for the Wall Street Journal revealed that a YouTube video, "Al Gore's Penguin Army", which was claimed to be an amateur work, in fact came from the computers of DCI Group, a Washington, D.C.-based PR firm whose client list includes ExxonMobil and General Motors. (See Al Gore's Penguin Army video controversy.) This hoax was discovered when journalist Antonio Ragalado noticed that the YouTube video was the first sponsored listing when he performed a Google search for Al Gore. The fact that someone was paid to have the alleged amateur film promoted was in itself suspicious.


http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB115457177198425388-0TpYE6bU6EGvfSqtP8_hHj...
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Grendel
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #1 - Jun 14th, 2009 at 11:42am
 
So do you guys call yourself "Astroturfs"?
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NorthOfNorth
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #2 - Jun 14th, 2009 at 11:56am
 
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Conviction is the art of being certain
 
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #3 - Jun 14th, 2009 at 12:01pm
 
muso wrote on Jun 14th, 2009 at 10:05am:
In August 2006, a science journalist for the Wall Street Journal revealed that a YouTube video, "Al Gore's Penguin Army", which was claimed to be an amateur work, in fact came from the computers of DCI Group, a Washington, D.C.-based PR firm whose client list includes ExxonMobil and General Motors. (See Al Gore's Penguin Army video controversy.) This hoax was discovered when journalist Antonio Ragalado noticed that the YouTube video was the first sponsored listing when he performed a Google search for Al Gore. The fact that someone was paid to have the alleged amateur film promoted was in itself suspicious.


That doesn't surprise me. It would go on everywhere and the multinationals are the ones who can afford to Astroturf - particularly conglomerates like Exxon.

How many gullible people fall for this stuff? It's hard to tell today what's propaganda and what isn't.  It's a pity most people haven't got the funds or the motivation to uncover these cons.
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muso
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #4 - Jun 14th, 2009 at 2:34pm
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 14th, 2009 at 11:42am:
So do you guys call yourself "Astroturfs"?


Big Corporations do it Grendel. It requires injection of money to make it work. You really don't get it, do you? Look, here's a link to show you how it works:

http://www.one-blue-marble.com/astroturfing-and-misinformation.html

- Low bandwidth too.
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Grendel
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #5 - Jun 14th, 2009 at 2:53pm
 
Oh I hear Al Gore and the "industry" have lots of money.  Also lots of political support.
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muso
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #6 - Jun 14th, 2009 at 5:07pm
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 14th, 2009 at 2:53pm:
Oh I hear Al Gore and the "industry" have lots of money.  Also lots of political support.


Pretty broad-based political support when you include Nicolas Sarkozy and Arnold Schwarzenegger behind it. Even GW Bush called it a serious problem, although he didn't do anything about it.

Isn't it funny how the renewable power industry can be accused of 'propagating a myth' when even the big Oil and big Coal companies (the goliaths of the corporate world) are fully supportive nowadays.

The prediction of the IPCC is that over the next century temperatures might rise by a further 1 to 3.5 degrees centigrade, and that sea levels might rise by between 15 and 95 centimetres. Some of that impact is probably unavoidable, because it results from current emissions.

Those are wide margins of error, and there remain large elements of uncertainty - about cause and effect ….and even more importantly about the consequences.

But it would be unwise and potentially dangerous to ignore the mounting concern.

The time to consider the policy dimensions of climate change is not when the link between greenhouse gases and climate change is conclusively proven … but when the possibility cannot be discounted and is taken seriously by the society of which we are part.

We in BP have reached that point.......


That speech excerpt was dated 1997 - 12 years ago. A lot has been done since then and Energy companies are taking it seriously.

The biggest myth of all is that it's all a socialist plot.

I can show you policies from practically every Oil and Coal corporation that show just how solid the support is.
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Grendel
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #7 - Jun 14th, 2009 at 6:05pm
 
and since then co2 emissions have continued to go up and the temperatures down
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #8 - Jun 14th, 2009 at 9:39pm
 
muso wrote on Jun 14th, 2009 at 2:34pm:
Grendel wrote on Jun 14th, 2009 at 11:42am:
So do you guys call yourself "Astroturfs"?


Big Corporations do it Grendel. It requires injection of money to make it work. You really don't get it, do you? Look, here's a link to show you how it works:

http://www.one-blue-marble.com/astroturfing-and-misinformation.html

- Low bandwidth too.



Everything is big in America, even more so then in Queensland.

Was the "uncovering" paparazzi american or american queenslander?

Cool
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ישראל חיה ערבים לערבים
 
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muso
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #9 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 9:51am
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 14th, 2009 at 6:05pm:
and since then co2 emissions have continued to go up and the temperatures down



Temperatures go down? Well it was cold here last night, but that's irrelevent.

CO2 emissions have gone up  
- Correct

Temperatures have gone down
- Wrong


Exam score - 50% Sorry - no diploma in Climate Science from University of Alabama-Huntsville for you. You'd better remove your name from the petition, Grendel. (damn!)

While 1998 was an unusually hot year due to El Nino, the long term trend since 1998 is still that of warming.

Didn't you listen when I explained to you how moving averages work? It's a useful way of sorting facts from bs. You don't need to talk about it until the cows come home. There is a perfectly good statistical technique available.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm

The easiest way to remove short term variations, revealing any underlying trend, is to plot a moving average. Figure 1 displays the 11 year moving average - an average calculated over the year itself and five years either side. They've used three different data-sets - NCDC, NASA GISS and the British HadCRUT3. In all three data-sets, the moving average shows no sign that the warming trend has reversed.

Look at the graphs folks.   Roll Eyes

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Grendel
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #10 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 10:16am
 
I'm sorry....  all the graphs I look at except your cooked ones say its been going down even the one you posted on the other topic does..

Oh right...  junked that one now have you?
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Grendel
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #11 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 10:28am
 
Oh but wait...  there's more.

Since you like HADCRUT so much   Grin
looks like you are gonna have to delete them off your list of sources eh.

Quote:
New scientific studies suggest a trend that may have started in the late 1990s. The earth may be cooling.

The Hadley Centre for Climate Change, part of the UK Met Office, tracks global temperature and shows a big drop in global temperature anomalies since January 2007. Based on the HadCRUT3 system of observed temperatures, global surface temperature anomalies have been trending down since 2001. January 2008 had the coldest anomaly since 1995.


Now who here just through anecdotal evidence and quoting all those denialists has been saying that the trend has been downwards for quite a few years now?

Oh yeah...  it was me.

But hey I'm not a climate scientist...  what would I know.

Keep on Astroturfing Muso...  if it makes you happy.
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muso
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #12 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 12:23pm
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 15th, 2009 at 10:28am:
Oh but wait...  there's more.

Since you like HADCRUT so much   Grin
looks like you are gonna have to delete them off your list of sources eh.

Quote:
New scientific studies suggest a trend that may have started in the late 1990s. The earth may be cooling.

The Hadley Centre for Climate Change, part of the UK Met Office, tracks global temperature and shows a big drop in global temperature anomalies since January 2007. Based on the HadCRUT3 system of observed temperatures, global surface temperature anomalies have been trending down since 2001. January 2008 had the coldest anomaly since 1995.


Now who here just through anecdotal evidence and quoting all those denialists has been saying that the trend has been downwards for quite a few years now?

Oh yeah...  it was me.

But hey I'm not a climate scientist...  what would I know.

Keep on Astroturfing Muso...  if it makes you happy.



You're talking about a SINGLE MONTH, you *******(control yourself muso)**********. FFS can't you get it through your **********(voluntarily censored)  that one month's data is nada! You have to take running averages over at least 5 years.

Now, do you suppose that the article was actually issued by Hadley, or perhaps somebody is just using their monthly data to distort the facts? hmmmm?

Look at the blue line and the link on reply 9.

Give me strength! Roll Eyes   (I'm rapidly losing my hair from tearing it out)

Quote:
and shows a big drop in global temperature anomalies since January 2007.


What - for a whole two and a half years? Grin Grin Grin - that's hilarious.
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« Last Edit: Jun 15th, 2009 at 12:35pm by muso »  

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Grendel
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #13 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 12:57pm
 
No goober...  I am and always have been talking about 10 years.

Honestly why do I bother.
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muso
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #14 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 2:21pm
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 15th, 2009 at 12:57pm:
No goober...  I am and always have been talking about 10 years.

Honestly why do I bother.


Grendel, You are talking about a 'trend' over 10 years, aren't you? Be honest.

If you understood about running averages, you'd realise that 10 years is a single point on the graph. There are different ways to do this, but here:

Running average over 10 years where y1= data point for year 1 etc.

(y1+y2+y3+y4+y5+y6+y7+y8+y9+y10) divided by 10

Next point on the graph:
(y2+y3+y4+y5+y6+y7+y8+y9+y10+y11) divided by 10
and so on

ok?


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