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Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof (Read 5338 times)
Grendel
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Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof
Jun 15th, 2009 at 10:56am
 
I just loved the title...  Grin
Posted: October 20, 2008, 10:26 AM by Kelly McParland
Lorne Gunter, Ful Comment

In early September, I began noticing a string of news stories about scientists rejecting the orthodoxy on global warming. Actually, it was more like a string of guest columns and long letters to the editor since it is hard for skeptical scientists to get published in the cabal of climate journals now controlled by the Great Sanhedrin of the environmental movement.

Still, the number of climate change skeptics is growing rapidly. Because a funny thing is happening to global temperatures -- they're going down, not up.

On the same day (Sept. 5) that areas of southern Brazil were recording one of their latest winter snowfalls ever and entering what turned out to be their coldest September in a century, Brazilian meteorologist Eugenio Hackbart explained that extreme cold or snowfall events in his country have always been tied to "a negative PDO" or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Positive PDOs -- El Ninos -- produce above-average temperatures in South America while negative ones -- La Ninas -- produce below average ones.

Dr. Hackbart also pointed out that periods of solar inactivity known as "solar minimums" magnify cold spells on his continent. So, given that August was the first month since 1913 in which no sunspot activity was recorded -- none -- and during which solar winds were at a 50-year low, he was not surprised that Brazilians were suffering (for them) a brutal cold snap. "This is no coincidence," he said as he scoffed at the notion that manmade carbon emissions had more impact than the sun and oceans on global climate.

Also in September, American Craig Loehle, a scientist who conducts computer modelling on global climate change, confirmed his earlier findings that the so-called Medieval Warm Period (MWP) of about 1,000 years ago did in fact exist and was even warmer than 20th-century temperatures.

Prior to the past decade of climate hysteria and Kyoto hype, the MWP was a given in the scientific community. Several hundred studies of tree rings, lake and ocean floor sediment, ice cores and early written records of weather -- even harvest totals and censuses --confirmed that the period from 800 AD to 1300 AD was unusually warm, particularly in Northern Europe.

But in order to prove the climate scaremongers' claim that 20th-century warming had been dangerous and unprecedented -- a result of human, not natural factors -- the MWP had to be made to disappear. So studies such as Michael Mann's "hockey stick," in which there is no MWP and global temperatures rise gradually until they jump up in the industrial age, have been adopted by the UN as proof that recent climate change necessitates a reordering of human economies and societies.

Dr. Loehle's work helps end this deception.

Don Easterbrook, a geologist at Western Washington University, says, "It's practically a slam dunk that we are in for about 30 years of global cooling," as the sun enters a particularly inactive phase. His examination of warming and cooling trends over the past four centuries shows an "almost exact correlation" between climate fluctuations and solar energy received on Earth, while showing almost "no correlation at all with CO2."

An analytical chemist who works in spectroscopy and atmospheric sensing, Michael J. Myers of Hilton Head, S. C., declared, "Man-made global warming is junk science," explaining that worldwide manmade CO2 emission each year "equals about 0.0168% of the atmosphere's CO2 concentration ... This results in a 0.00064% increase in the absorption of the sun's radiation. This is an insignificantly small number."

Other international scientists have called the manmade warming theory a "hoax," a "fraud" and simply "not credible."

While not stooping to such name-calling, weather-satellite scientists David Douglass of the University of Rochester and John Christy of the University of Alabama at Huntsville nonetheless dealt the True Believers a devastating blow last month.

For nearly 30 years, Professor Christy has been in charge of NASA's eight weather satellites that take more than 300,000 temperature readings daily around the globe. In a paper co-written with Dr. Douglass, he concludes that while manmade emissions may be having a slight impact, "variations in global temperatures since 1978 ... cannot be attributed to carbon dioxide."

Moreover, while the chart below was not produced by Douglass and Christy, it was produced using their data and it clearly shows that in the past four years -- the period corresponding to reduced solar activity -- all of the rise in global temperatures since 1979 has disappeared.

It may be that more global warming doubters are surfacing because there just isn't any global warming.

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Grendel
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Re: Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof
Reply #1 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 11:00am
 
Any minute now Muso of team Astroturf will ridicule name-call, deny, ignore and all those usual things he does because....  all the people mentioned and their arguments are irrelevant because they are NOT climate scientists..  Grin

Or are they?
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muso
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Re: Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof
Reply #2 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 12:10pm
 
That's so full of lies, half truths and contradictions that I don't know where to start.

The one by the good ol' boy Michael J. Myers of Hilton Head, S. C might be interesting to pull apart. When I have more time, I'll demonstrate the amazing slight of hand in that comment.

You must admit, they do a good job in churning this stuff out.

If I can show that a single part of that article is a tad on the nose, then the rest of it should be at least suspect of being extremely stinky.

The ironic thing about your remarks about astroturfing is that this article is an example of astroturfing par excellence.

- As for now, I have  work to do. Some bastard government has brought in new legislation, which means I have to be bored out of my skull for 3 days in Brisbane going through a formal training course, which will take me just as long to RPL, so it's easier just to attend, bite my lip and not complain.  Angry
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« Last Edit: Jun 15th, 2009 at 12:18pm by muso »  

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Grendel
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Re: Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof
Reply #3 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 3:05pm
 
Ta Daaaaaaaaaaaaa!

But you have to admit Muso it does have a great title.  Grin
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muso
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Re: Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof
Reply #4 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 3:55pm
 
I'll tell you what. I'll post an explanation (OK a proof in your terminology) of how we know conclusively that increases in greenhouse gases result in accelerated warming, and you can try to find any mistakes, Grendel. (haven't I done that already? - oh that was the time you had to be somewh

How does that sound? I'll start on that next week.

The title of the thread? Who cares? Everybody has seen the graphs, and they know that something is definitely on the nose about everything (well almost everything) you cut and paste here.

Next time you're in the shopping Centre, just be careful to pick the right escalator. You seem to have a problem telling up from down.   Grin
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Grendel
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Re: Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof
Reply #5 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 4:39pm
 
If greenhouse gasses release and increase 800 years after a warming period now would be that time and it would have no connection with recent manmade emissions.

How ya gonna explain that away?
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Grendel
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Re: Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof
Reply #6 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 4:49pm
 
You know...  other people can read graphs....  Grin Grin Grin
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muso
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Re: Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof
Reply #7 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 6:25pm
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 15th, 2009 at 4:39pm:
If greenhouse gasses release and increase 800 years after a warming period now would be that time and it would have no connection with recent manmade emissions.

How ya gonna explain that away?


LOL Where did you find that little gem??  Grin

Ahem there's a little thing called the Earth's carbon balance and the unique isotope ratios of carbon from fossil fuels.

Grendel, if you read the most basic explanation of the Earth's carbon cycle, even one that's designed for schools, all should become immediately apparent.

You're not waffling about the Medieval Warming again are you?  Grin

Maybe I should start a thread on that and put it to bed, just like the petition of 32,000 Grendel clones.... I mean pseudoscientists. I guess they would have a Bachelor of Pseudoscience.
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Grendel
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Re: Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof
Reply #8 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 6:28pm
 
Lots of scientists you don't recognise have cited that gem.
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muso
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Re: Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof
Reply #9 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 6:30pm
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 15th, 2009 at 6:28pm:
Lots of scientists you don't recognise have cited that gem.


If it goes Duck duck then it's a quack. Well something like that. It reminds me of the case of Quacks in the 19th century.

Anti-quackery activists were accused of being part of a huge "conspiracy" to suppress "unconventional" and/or "natural" therapies, as well as those who promote them. It is alleged that this conspiracy is backed and funded by the pharmaceutical industry and the established medical care system - represented by the AMA, FDA, ADA, CDC, WHO, etc. - for the purpose of preserving their power and increasing their profits.

Substitute IPCC for AMA etc, and it starts to sound like something quite familiar.

Roll up, Roll up, come and get your snake oil.  Grin
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« Last Edit: Jun 15th, 2009 at 6:37pm by muso »  

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Grendel
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Re: Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof
Reply #10 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 8:58pm
 
Nice try...  typical...  but not in the least convincing.  Cheesy

Quote:
‘Petit et al. (1999) reconstructed histories of surface air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration from data obtained from a Vostok ice core that covered the prior 420,000 years, determining that during glacial inception “the CO2 decrease lags the temperature decrease by several thousand years” and that “the same sequence of climate forcing operated during each termination.” Likewise, working with sections of ice core records from around the times of the last three glacial terminations, Fischer et al. (1999) found that “the time lag of the rise in CO2 concentrations with respect to temperature change is on the order of 400 to 1000 years during all three glacial-interglacial transitions.”

‘On the basis of atmospheric CO2 data obtained from the Antarctic Taylor Dome ice core and temperature data obtained from the Vostok ice core, Indermuhle et al. (2000) studied the relationship between these two parameters over the period 60,000-20,000 years BP (Before Present). One statistical test performed on the data suggested that shifts in the air’s CO2 content lagged shifts in air temperature by approximately 900 years, while a second statistical test yielded a mean lag-time of 1200 years. Similarly, in a study of air temperature and CO2 data obtained from Dome Concordia, Antarctica for the period 22,000-9,000 BP — which time interval includes the most recent glacial-to-interglacial transition — Monnin et al. (2001) found that the start of the CO2 increase lagged the start of the temperature increase by 800 years. Then, in another study of the 420,000-year Vostok ice-core record, Mudelsee (2001) concluded that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lagged variations in air temperature by 1,300 to 5,000 years�

‘In consequence of these several observations, the role of CO2 as a primary driver of climate change on earth would appear to be going, going, gone; while the CO2 warming amplification hypothesis rings mighty hollow.’
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« Last Edit: Jun 15th, 2009 at 9:38pm by Grendel »  
 
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Re: Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof
Reply #11 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 10:19pm
 
Grendel, if you did not stalwartly refuse to even look at the refutations by real scientists, of this endless parade of misinformation, we may be able to make progress, but whilst you maintain the stance that any qualified climate scientist who agrees with global warming, and that is to all intent and purpose all of them, is a willing dupe of a secret cabal of evil grant enablers, then we will forever see you trotting out discredited misinformation as if you have discovered the holy grail of denialism.

You could engage with muso, who is far more knowledgeable than I, and go through the basics, step by step, and try and refute anything you feel is unjustified, but you refuse that offer.

That is plain old recalcitrance, and once more you align yourself with the extremist position.

Well you and the rest of the 2% sure can make a nuisance of yourselves for being such a numerically insignificant minority.
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OOPS!!! My Karma, ran over your Dogma!
 
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Grendel
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Re: Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof
Reply #12 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 7:14am
 
Read stuff from both sides mozz...  don't lie about me ok.

If you didn't ignore climate scientists who dissent from the AGW viewpoint we might make progress.  Grin

I have engaged with Muso...  so far he proves to be a hypocrite and a liar.  oh dear.  I have no time for people who just like to name call and ridicule, whose main argument is shooting messengers and ignoring other points of view.

I don't have an extremist position.  In fact my position isn't fixed I have an open mind on the subject unlike yourself and Muso the Astroturfer.  I am as yet unconvinced that manmade co2 emissions is the major climate driver.

In fact Mozz NO ONE has proven that yet.  A FACT you keep ignoring.

Ahhh the truth is a powerful thing.
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Grendel
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Re: Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof
Reply #13 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 9:07am
 
Oh and BTW...

Quote:
Senator Fielding says despite what Chief Scientist Penny Sackett explained to him yesterday, he is still not satisfied that carbon emissions are driving up global temperatures.

"When I put forward the question 'isn't it true that carbon emissions have been going up and global temperature hasn't?', they wanted to rephrase my question and not answer it," he told AM.


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muso
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Re: Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof
Reply #14 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 9:18am
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 15th, 2009 at 8:58pm:
Nice try...  typical...  but not in the least convincing.  Cheesy

Quote:
‘Petit et al. (1999) reconstructed histories of surface air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration from data obtained from a Vostok ice core that covered the prior 420,000 years, determining that during glacial inception “the CO2 decrease lags the temperature decrease by several thousand years” and that “the same sequence of climate forcing operated during each termination.” Likewise, working with sections of ice core records from around the times of the last three glacial terminations, Fischer et al. (1999) found that “the time lag of the rise in CO2 concentrations with respect to temperature change is on the order of 400 to 1000 years during all three glacial-interglacial transitions.”

‘On the basis of atmospheric CO2 data obtained from the Antarctic Taylor Dome ice core and temperature data obtained from the Vostok ice core, Indermuhle et al. (2000) studied the relationship between these two parameters over the period 60,000-20,000 years BP (Before Present). One statistical test performed on the data suggested that shifts in the air’s CO2 content lagged shifts in air temperature by approximately 900 years, while a second statistical test yielded a mean lag-time of 1200 years. Similarly, in a study of air temperature and CO2 data obtained from Dome Concordia, Antarctica for the period 22,000-9,000 BP — which time interval includes the most recent glacial-to-interglacial transition — Monnin et al. (2001) found that the start of the CO2 increase lagged the start of the temperature increase by 800 years. Then, in another study of the 420,000-year Vostok ice-core record, Mudelsee (2001) concluded that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lagged variations in air temperature by 1,300 to 5,000 years�

‘In consequence of these several observations, the role of CO2 as a primary driver of climate change on earth would appear to be going, going, gone; while the CO2 warming amplification hypothesis rings mighty hollow.’



Strawman. There was no huge input of CO2 during the periods cited.
The main driver then was fluctuations in Solar irradiance due to the Milankovich cycles.

However, it's true that there is a lag in temperature response. That basically means that the worst is yet to come.

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