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Aussie economy outperforms the world (Read 2929 times)
fawkes
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Re: Aussie economy outperforms the world
Reply #15 - Mar 21st, 2010 at 10:10am
 
Amadd wrote on Mar 20th, 2010 at 8:58am:
Can foreign debts go on forever? Well, conceivably yes, if the debt is just a number, or a gauge as to how one nation compares against another. How many nations have unpayable debt (unpayable interest) these days? Plenty, but they don't seem to think it matters too much. After all, Clinton showed that it's possible to just strike it out and start again.

What do you think would happen if the Greek government announced that it was striking out all its debt, and would no longer be paying interest on it?
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NorthOfNorth
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Re: Aussie economy outperforms the world
Reply #16 - Mar 21st, 2010 at 10:17am
 
A dive in the Euro, a spike in the price of gold in Europe, an improvement in the US dollar and USDX, calls for Greece to be expelled from the EU, a political crisis in Greece, a complete collapse of the Greek economy, massive social unrest not seen since WW2. Serious debate about the viability of the EU itself.

In that order, I reckon.
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fawkes
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Re: Aussie economy outperforms the world
Reply #17 - Mar 21st, 2010 at 10:28am
 
What do you think would happen if the USA government announced that it was striking out all its debt, and would no longer be paying interest on it?
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NorthOfNorth
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Re: Aussie economy outperforms the world
Reply #18 - Mar 21st, 2010 at 11:02am
 
fawkes wrote on Mar 21st, 2010 at 10:28am:
What do you think would happen if the USA government announced that it was striking out all its debt, and would no longer be paying interest on it?

A dive in the Euro, a spike in the price of gold in Europe, an improvement in the US dollar and USDX, calls in Greece to also cancel its debt despite risking a further dive in the Euro, a further spike in the price of gold in Europe, a further improvement in the US dollar and USDX, expulsion from the EU, a political crisis in Greece, a complete collapse of the Greek economy, massive social unrest not seen since WW2 and serious debate about the viability of the EU itself.

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Soren
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Re: Aussie economy outperforms the world
Reply #19 - Mar 21st, 2010 at 9:09pm
 
NorthOfNorth wrote on Mar 21st, 2010 at 11:02am:
fawkes wrote on Mar 21st, 2010 at 10:28am:
What do you think would happen if the USA government announced that it was striking out all its debt, and would no longer be paying interest on it?

A dive in the Euro, a spike in the price of gold in Europe, an improvement in the US dollar and USDX, calls in Greece to also cancel its debt despite risking a further dive in the Euro, a further spike in the price of gold in Europe, a further improvement in the US dollar and USDX, expulsion from the EU, a political crisis in Greece, a complete collapse of the Greek economy, massive social unrest not seen since WW2 and serious debate about the viability of the EU itself.



Bring it on. The EU is the triumpgh of the Soviet Union, from beyond the grave. European Union? A typical euro-weeny misunderstanding of Swiss and American (and Australian and Canadian) federalism. Europeans are sooo parochial, they wouldn't notice a misunderstanding until the  tanks are rolling down the boulevards.

Some of my best friends are European , though.i
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Amadd
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Re: Aussie economy outperforms the world
Reply #20 - Mar 22nd, 2010 at 6:32am
 
I wasn't talking about the U.S. striking out it's own debts, I was talking about striking out the debts of others.

Obama had the same plan:

Quote:
Provide sustainable debt relief to developing countries:
The poorest countries in the world suffer under the weight of an enormous burden of external debt.
Barack Obama wants to see 100% debt cancellation for the world’s heavily-indebted poor countries.

He is committed to living up to the promise to fully fund debt cancellation for Heavily-Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC).

An Obama administration will press for reforms at the World Bank to ensure that poor countries receive grants rather than loans, and that countries have the resources they need to respond to the external shocks that threaten to derail economic progress.


Then you have the Icelandic people who were shafted by the banks:

Quote:
People in Iceland have rejected their government's pledge to repay a debt of more than US$5 billion left by the collapse of Icesave Internet bank. 93 per cent of people voted “no” in a referendum.

“The bailout would be for roughly US$5.4 billion, which would go to the Dutch and the British depositors in Icesave, which was the largest online bank that went under,” Marshall says. “And this is basically asking the Icelandic people to pay for the bad debts of their bankers and the bad regulations of their government. And it’s sort of endemic of this corporatist economic undertaking that is going on around the world, where the private debt has become a public obligation. So you privatize profit and you socialize the risk.”


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fawkes
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Re: Aussie economy outperforms the world
Reply #21 - Mar 22nd, 2010 at 7:34am
 
If we can believe helian, a default, on all its debt by the USA would lead to Quote:
A dive in the Euro, a spike in the price of gold in Europe, an improvement in the US dollar and USDX, calls in Greece to also cancel its debt despite risking a further dive in the Euro, a further spike in the price of gold in Europe, a further improvement in the US dollar and USDX, expulsion from the EU, a political crisis in Greece, a complete collapse of the Greek economy, massive social unrest not seen since WW2 and serious debate about the viability of the EU itself.


If there was any justice in the world, what should happen is other countries lose trust in the US$, switch to other currencies for oil (and other) purchases, stop borrowing US$ to fund development projects, and try to trade any US$ they have in exchange for anything of real value... all of which will cause a drop in the value of the US$ but have little effect on  the value of other countries' currencies. But the world is not always just in matters concerning superpowers, so perhaps the outcome might be completely different.

Whichever way it goes, I think it's obvious that just striking out debt and starting again is not a safe option for everyone.
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Senexx
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Re: Aussie economy outperforms the world
Reply #22 - Mar 24th, 2010 at 2:57pm
 
fawkes wrote on Mar 21st, 2010 at 10:28am:
What do you think would happen if the USA government announced that it was striking out all its debt, and would no longer be paying interest on it?


Nothing much to the countries that use fiat money and have a free floating exchange rate.  However, if any of them use a pegged standard of any sort, dire trouble.
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Senexx
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Re: Aussie economy outperforms the world
Reply #23 - Mar 24th, 2010 at 3:01pm
 
Aussie economy outperforms the world

Of course it does and not for the first time either.

Successive governments contributed to Australian resilience in the face of the year-old threat to our prosperity.

Introducing the Australian Model Version 1

and the Australian Model Version 2
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fawkes
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Re: Aussie economy outperforms the world
Reply #24 - Mar 25th, 2010 at 8:14pm
 
Senexx wrote on Mar 24th, 2010 at 2:57pm:
fawkes wrote on Mar 21st, 2010 at 10:28am:
What do you think would happen if the USA government announced that it was striking out all its debt, and would no longer be paying interest on it?


Nothing much to the countries that use fiat money and have a free floating exchange rate.  However, if any of them use a pegged standard of any sort, dire trouble.


Doesn't seem logical to me. Would you care to explain why?
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Senexx
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Re: Aussie economy outperforms the world
Reply #25 - Mar 26th, 2010 at 9:03am
 
Gold Standard collapsed in the 30s (pegged standard) and the Bretton Woods system collapsed in the 70s (pegged standard) and ultimately gave us fiat money which exists by legislative fiat alone.

The modern monetary system is characterised by a floating exchange rate (so monetary policy is freed from the need to defend foreign exchange reserves) and the monopoly provision of fiat currency. The monopolist is the national government. Most countries now operate monetary systems that have these characteristics.

Under a fiat currency system, the monetary unit defined by the government has no intrinsic worth. It cannot be legally converted by government, for example, into gold as it was under the gold standard. The viability of the fiat currency is ensured by the fact that it is the only unit which is acceptable for payment of taxes and other financial demands of the government.

In other words $5 is worth $5 because the govt says it is.

The crux of what you ask relates to monetary policy having to defend foreign exchange reserves as this is what happens under a pegged standard.  There is little to no flexibility.

Debt is effectively paid as I have outlined here
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hawil
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Re: Aussie economy outperforms the world
Reply #26 - Mar 28th, 2010 at 12:42pm
 
The Australian economy is outperforming the world at the expense of the 5-6% unemployed people, although in the USA the unemployment is higher. Australia has also one of the higher interest rates in the developed world so people borrow in Yens,Euros and other currencies and invest in A$, but in the end it will not last forever and it will come home to roost. The worst part is that National debts are usually c=socialised while the profits in the good times are capitalized.
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fawkes
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Re: Aussie economy outperforms the world
Reply #27 - Mar 29th, 2010 at 8:01am
 
Senexx wrote on Mar 26th, 2010 at 9:03am:
Under a fiat currency system, the monetary unit defined by the government has no intrinsic worth.


Senexx is taking a lot of space to explain what the value of a unit of currency is said to be, but that is a separate matter from having a country pay an accumulated debt from the past.

Senexx wrote on Mar 26th, 2010 at 9:03am:
Debt is effectively paid as I have outlined here


All Senexx says there is"

"The Federal Reserve debits (subtracts from) China’s securities account at the Fed.

"And they credit (add to) China’s reserve (savings) account at the Federal Reserve.  

"That’s all debt paid!"

It's a limited outline at best, referring to the debt the USA owes China and saying nothing about other countries which don't have accounts with the American Federal Reserve.

From a commonsense point of view the debt referred to in the example above can not be regarded as paid until the Chinese Federal Reserve(or whatever they call their alternative) receive a shipment of $US currency (or equivalent agreed to by the Chinese) that the Chinese can immediately spend to buy something from places like Iran, Venezuala, Ukraine, or Vietnam.
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