Japan population shrinks by record in 2010

TOKYO (AP) — Japan's population fell by a record amount last year as the number of deaths climbed to an all-time high in the quickly aging country, the government said Saturday.

Japan faces a looming demographic squeeze. Baby boomers are moving toward retirement, with fewer workers and taxpayers to replace them. The Japanese boast among the highest life expectancies in the world but have extremely low birth rates.

Japan logged 1.19 million deaths in 2010 — the biggest number since 1947 when the health ministry's annual records began. The number of births was nearly flat at 1.07 million.

As a result, Japan contracted by 123,000 people, which was the most ever and represents the fourth consecutive year of population decline. The top causes of death were cancer, heart disease and stroke, the ministry said.

Japanese aged 65 and older make up about a quarter of Japan's current population. The government projects that by 2050, that figure will climb to 40 percent.

Like in other advanced countries, young people are waiting to get married and choosing to have fewer children because of careers and lifestyle issues.

Saturday's report showed 706,000 marriages registered last year — the fewest since 1954 and a sign that birth rates are unlikely to jump dramatically anytime soon.

Japan's total population stood at 125.77 million as of October, according to the ministry.

Link -
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jFUMBFyK19dX-OzmoUL9O9yRXb4Q?d...
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The following site shows a chart of the Japanese Population Peaking in 2006 at just under 127.5 Million and it has since started a relentless decline, which is set to continue, probably for the rest of this century.
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=ja&v=21

Japan was the first country to start down this Population trend and the effects on their Economy are there for all to see, dating back to 1990.

Almost all other countries are set to follow a similar trend, over the balance of this century.

World population forecast to 2300

Population projections lose a lot of their accuracy when they start dealing with people who have not been born and guessing at the rate at which they will choose to reproduce. Population projections are far better with calculations based on counting who is living now and figuring that the people who are fertile now will reproduce at the same rate as other people in their same generation in the same country and region.

The main medium projection is for population to go to about 9 to 10 billion around 2050. However, if fertility rates increase slightly and death rates were to drop then the population could continue to grow.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/TSCrYe4HGrI/AAAAAAAAJ60/2uVb01cyibA/s400/worldpop2300.

Link -
http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/01/world-population-forecast-to-2300.html
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Personally, I doubt that the Global Population will rise much above 8 Billion, if it even gets that far, before it starts to decline, mainly due to Energy, Agricultural & Climate Related issues.

The Plight of the Baby Boomers

By Bill Bonner • January 4th, 2011

Okay, so what will 2011 bring?

Most likely, it will bring more of 2010. That is, the confusing and contradictory trends of the past year are likely to keep going.

On the one hand, the deflationary contraction that began in 2007 will continue shrinking prices and economic growth. The savings rate has climbed to over 5%. Unemployment is still near 10%. And the CPI - if you believe the official numbers - is nearly flat. We may be living through the biggest rush in monetary inflation in US history, but the core inflation numbers haven't moved so little in more than 50 years.

On the other hand, the inflationary expansion of the money supply that began in 2009 will go on too. It will bring more bubbles and more speculative pressure on oil and gold. It might also bring a collapse of the US Treasury bond market - if not in 2011, then soon after!

Which hand will have the upper hand?

Neither.

Instead, they will continue jerking the economy this way and that...rewarding some speculators, punishing others...smacking economists...and giving central bankers the middle finger.

That's our prediction.

Gold will rise. Oil will rise. Emerging markets will rise.

The US economy will NOT rise.

What? Weren't there encouraging signs of life at the very end of the year?

Yes. But there are always signs of life in an economy. The US economy isn't dead. It's just going through a bad patch...like a man whose wife has left him...or a woman who has gained 20 lbs...or a 60-year-old couple that has to downsize. These things take time.

"Baby boomers unprepared for retirement," says a headline in the local paper.

According to the article, 10,000 boomers will reach age 65 every day for the next 19 years. And few of them have saved enough money. Some were counting on 401(k) plans. But stocks haven't made any progress in the last 10 years. Others were looking to their houses as a source of retirement financing. They were doing fine until 2007. Since then, the value of their houses has been cut by a third.
Link -
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/the-plight-of-the-baby-boomers/2011/01/04/
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Much of that sounds about right, but depending on timing, Oil will first rise to a point where it overcomes the Global Economy, then it will fall as the Global Economy again collapses.

However, at some point, when it beomes apparent that we have passed Peak Oil and shortages start to appear, then Oil will begin a relentless rise that will not stop!

That said, just think of those Baby Boomer retirement numbers, what that means is about 300,000 each month are due to retire, that's 3.6 Million each year.

Think about the ramifications of that happening & not happening, the ramifications are enormous, both ways!

Singapore fertility rate falls to record low

SINGAPORE: Preliminary estimates show that Singapore's total fertility rate has dropped to a record low of 1.16 last year.

This is even lower than the 1.22 in 2009, and well below the replacement rate of 2.1.

Deputy Prime Minister Wong Kan Seng said the number of new Permanent Residents in 2010, was halved from a year ago.

Mr Wong, who heads the newly formed National Population and Talent Division, revealed the numbers as he laid out the country's long-term strategy for managing population growth.

After an influx of foreigners during the boom years, the government took steps to mitigate their inflow in 2010. Criteria for PR status were tightened, while more was done to integrate new citizens.

The move comes amid growing discomfort among Singaporeans over the increased presence of foreigners in the country.

29,265 foreigners became permanent residents last year, a sharp drop from the 59,460 in 2009, and 79,200 in 2008.

The country's aging population and low fertility rate means that the government will need to tap on immigration to augment the population.

Singapore is still facing the problem of having not enough babies. Mr Wong said the government will continue to support couples' decision to get married and have children. He added authorities will aim for a pro-family environment but he also acknowledged that boosting fertility will take time.

In a speech on "Inclusive Growth" delivered at the Singapore Perspectives Conference organised by the Institute of Policy Studies, Deputy Prime Minister Wong Kan Seng reiterated that citizens' interests will always come first.

Growing the population, Mr Wong explained, provides the critical mass to attract investors and grow domestic markets.

The key is in attracting the right kind of people.

"Singapore's population story is still evolving. Looking ahead, continual refinements will need to be made at appropriate junctures to ensure that Singapore will remain our best home. Like other countries around the world, we must continue to welcome suitably qualified people to work and live in Singapore and contribute to our society," said Mr Wong.

Mr Wong described these "suitably qualified people" as an "improvement in the quality of new PRs".

According to the latest population census, PRs in Singapore tend to be better educated. Almost half of the PR population last year were degree holders, compared with 18 per cent of citizens.

The number of new citizens remained relatively steady at 18, 758 in 2010, compared to 19,928 for 2009.

According to Mr Wong, the new Population and Talent Division will formulate, coordinate and review whole of Government policies. In doing so, Mr Wong said the focus is on achieving a "sustainable population profile".

Three principles will guide this effort - to preserve and uphold what is distinctive and unique about Singapore, to ensure growth and change benefit Singaporeans, and to remain nimble and prepared as well as make adjustments along the way.

Mr Wong said what is unique about Singapore is that its people "value hard work, thrift and honesty".

Singapore has also made multi-ethnic diversity work for it.

So in managing the population, Mr Wong said the government will "always be guided by the need to preserve a strong citizen core" and to "maintain stability" in the ethnic mix.

Observers say the latest figures on new immigrants will go some way in addressing Singaporeans' concerns.

Dr Leong Chan Hoong, a Research Fellow with the Institute of Policy Studies, said: "There is a very reassuring effect for Singaporeans and certainly I think this will help assure Singaporeans that the policy makers have their interests as a priority."

Inclusive growth has been a buzzword of late, and more recently, it was debated in Parliament. The idea is that no Singaporean is left out even as the country progresses. Observers said this is likely to be a hot button issue at the next general elections due by February 2012.


Link -
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1105160/1/.html
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Just an observation, what happens when pretty much every country in the world has -
1) A slowing Fertility rate.
2) The largest generation, by far, the world has ever seen, who have now commenced to start flooding into retirement.
3) The same idea, of artificially growing their Population, by enticing "the right people" to become immigrants.

And, what are the ramifications, in a world where Peak Population, Peak Energy (Oil) & Peak Food, have already been reached?

From the Executive Summary:

Increasing Pressure
The human population of the world is undergoing unprecedented growth and demographic change. By the end of this century there will be an estimated 9.5 billion people, 75% of them located in urban settlements and striving for increased living standards. Meeting the needs and demands of these people will provide a significant challenge to governments and society at large, and the engineering profession in particular.

In rising to this challenge, the engineers of today, and the future, will need to be innovative in the application of sustainable solutions and increasingly engaged with the human factors that influence their decisions. They will need strong, visionary and stable support from governments around the world.

There are four main areas in which population growth and expanding affluence will significantly challenge society in the provision of basic human needs, and create increased pressure on current resources and the environment:

1. Food: An increase in the number of mouths to feed and changes in dietary habits, including the increased consumption of meat, will double demand for agricultural production by 2050. This will place added pressures on already stretched resources coping with the uncertain impacts of climate change on global food production.

2. Water: Extra pressure will come not only from increased requirements for food production, which uses 70% of water consumed globally, but also from a growth in demand for drinking water and industrial processing as we strive to satisfy consumer aspirations. Worldwide demand for water is projected to rise 30% by 2030, this in a world of shifting rainfall patterns due to global warming-induced climate changes that are difficult to predict.

3. Urbanisation: With cities in the developing world expanding at an unprecedented rate, adding another three billion urban inhabitants by 2050, solutions are needed to relieve the pressures of overcrowding, sanitation, waste handling and transportation if we are to provide comfortable, resilient and efficient places for all to live and work.

4. Energy: Increased food production, water processing and urbanisation, combined with economic growth and expanding affluence, will by mid-century more than double the demand on the sourcing and distribution of energy.

This at a time when the sector is already under increasing pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (on average across the globe to 50% of 1990 levels), adapt to uncertain future impacts of a changing climate and ensure security of future supply.

The Institution of Mechanical Engineers recognises the scale of these issues and that there is a need to begin implementing the early phases of routes to sustainable solutions. The long timescales involved in many of the engineering-based projects required to meet these challenges, often measured in decades of construction and implementation, mean that if action is not taken before a crisis point is reached there will be significant human hardship. Failure to act will place billions of people around the world at risk of hunger, thirst and conflict as capacity tries to catch up with demand.

Link -
http://energybulletin.net/stories/2011-01-20/population-one-planet-too-many-peop...
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In fact, I believe that the Global Population may struggle to reach 8 Billion, before starting a long decline back to around 3-4 Billion, by around the end of the century.

“Most Western elites continue urging the wealthy West not to stem the migrant tide [that adds 80 million net gain annually to the planet], but to absorb our global brothers and sisters until their horrid ordeal has been endured and shared by all—ten billion humans packed onto an ecologically devastated planet.” Dr. Otis Graham, Unguarded Gates

Every Canadian reading this column will be nodding his or her head right about now.  I write about reality and common sense.  I write about what I have seen around the world in my bicycle travels.  I can state unequivocally, Canada does not want to repeat what China, India, Mexico and Bangladesh did to themselves, not now, not ever.   Canadian citizens warrant a sustainable and environmentally balanced future.

At some point, we need to consider our fellow creatures on this planet:
“Upwards of two hundred species.. mostly of the large, slow-breeding variety.. are becoming extinct here every day because more and more of the earth’s carrying capacity is systematically being converted into human carrying capacity. These species are being burnt out, starved out, and squeezed out of existence.. thanks to technologies that most people, I’m afraid, think of as technologies of peace. I hope it will not be too long before the technologies that support our population explosion begin to be perceived as no less hazardous to the future of life on this planet than the endless production of radioactive wastes.” Daniel Quinn

Canadian citizens need to speak up for Canada’s future, for its children, for it wilderness, for its animals and for its viability.  It needs to lead by example, not by promoting endless population growth that leads to endless consequences on multiple levels.  Canadians either make choices today or severe and harsher choices will be made for you in the future.

Link -
http://novakeo.com/?p=9397
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At some point, in the not too distant future, we need our consideration to shift from -
Here, Now & ME
to also include -
Everywhere, The Future & Others

In doing so, we will have no alternative, but to take some tough decisions, which have been forced on us, by many previous decades of people (Politicians, TPTB & the Publics), who postponed what would have been smaller decisions, because they assumed (hoped) the future would take care of itself and that magically all would live happily ever-after.  

New Louisiana census numbers show how dramatic the post-Katrina population loss has been in New Orleans, with the number of people living in the Crescent City dropping by nearly a third since 2000. And the shift could be bad news for Democrats with redistricting on the horizon.

The 2010 Census shows New Orleans' population at 343,829, down 140,845 from 10 years earlier. Those numbers reflect the city's struggle to get its former citizens to return after the 2005 storm and the years-long loss in population as the city battled with a weak economy, crime and corruption.

"Our progress has always been much bigger than a population number, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu said in a statement. "Today, our recovery is in a full gallop."

Billions of federal dollars have flowed into the city since the flood waters receded and despite the dwindling numbers, city leaders like Landrieu are looking past the numbers and focusing on their rebuilding effort.

Link -
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/02/04/dramatic-drop-new-orleans-population-...
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Forgetting the Political angle of this article, it is of interest due to the possible similarities with Queensland.

There are many underlying questions now in play, with the current Climate disasters & the likelihood of future increased activity of Climate disasters, in places such as New Orleans, Queensland & elsewhere!

So, will some Queenslanders copy what some from New Orleans have done, will they look elsewhere, will others buy what they want to leave and if so, at what price?

Will governments, at both the State & Federal Level continue to approve Re-building damaged properties & building new ones, in the same Flood/Cyclone prone areas?

And, if so, will local insurers continue to insure these properties, will the international Re-insurance market back the local insurers and if so, at what price to the Local insurers and their clients?

Let my provide a PHOPHECY, which is more just financial common sense. In the not too distant future certain risks, in certain areas, will be un-insurerable, at any price!

What that means is, WE have to change the status quo approach, change the rules and start a new game plan!

There is an animated population pyramid for Australia here:
http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/home/population%20pyramid%20previe...

It's interesting to compare the different states.