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It's a question of balance. Do we judge that there's two many people when it's standing room only eating soylent green, when every other life form on the planet is extinct, when every other life form is in rapid decline? Is there a difference between being human and being a plague locust? Surely we must set some kind of parametres?

Why is China's one child policy a failure? Personally i think it's been a great success although some aspects are unpleasant. I think we should be grateful to the Chinese for shouldering some responsibility.

There are some lessons to be learned from the Japanese experience of the last 2 decades, some of which should be used, whilst others should not.

That said, a few observations are needed -
First, the true origin of the collapses in Japan from 1990 and the USA & the rest of the world from 2007, was not Private or Government Debt, nor was it the collapse of the Banks & the financial sector.

Whilst these were all part of the mix and part of the problem, they were essentially symptoms of the underlying cause and that cause is Demographics! As we know some 70% of the Economy, comes from the Consuming Public and the Economic changes arising from the changing Demographic mix is massive.

Following is a link to Japanese Population pyramids for 1950, 2007 & a projection for 2050. As can be seen, the 2050 projection will nearly be an inverted replica of 1950, with
1950 showing -
35.4% 0-14 years  
59.6% 15-65 years
4.9%   65 years +

whereas the 2050 projection shows -
8.6% 0-14 years  
51.8% 15-65 years
39.6%   65 years +

as at 2007, the transition was well under way, at -
13.5% 0-14 years  
65.0% 15-65 years
21.5%   65 years +



That's all well and good, I hear you saying, but we know about the Baby Boomers & the Aging population.

Yes, but did you know that -
1)      The USA TFR (Total Fertility Rate) Peaked in 1956 and continued at high rates until the US “official Boomer era” ended in 1964.
The World TFR however, continued at high rates until around 1970 (per following chart), but only started to decline substantially, after the introduction of China's one child policy, in 1979.
 

However, in Japan, Peak TFR came in 1947 at 4.5 children per woman and it then dropped swiftly to 2.0, in 1957, a level not seen in the USA until several decades later and still not seen on a Global basis.

So, I have explained all that, to highlight the following –
1)      The cause of Japans Economic problem, is the Aging of their Population, which is reflected in many areas across the Economy, but Primarily it is reducing the Demand driven segment of their Economy and it is also reducing the Personal Tax Base because the % of worker numbers to the total population is shrinking, whilst it must increase the tax burden on remaining workers & the Private sector, IF Japan is to prevent itself from becoming a Bankrupt nation, as its Debt goes into the stratosphere.

2)      Whilst there are some aspects common to the Japanese lost decades and where the USA & the rest of the world now reside, there are also some substantial differences, which are –
a) The rest of the world effectively propped up the Japanese Economy, to some extent, until 2005, as they (the ROW) continued with their Peak Baby Boomer Earning & Spending years.
After that, the same Demographic disease started to eat in Housing values in the USA & Europe, which in turn caused rising Personal Asset to Debt ratio’s, Banking problems & finally National Debt problems in Europe & the USA.

b) Commencing soon after the start of this century, there started an upward Energy Cost to GDP spiral, which continues now and it is set to increase its influence, over the next several decades.
In fact, Production of the major Global Energy source, being Oil, appears to have effectively Peaked in 2005 and that brought Demand Vs Supply into a clear focus, with the Oil Price spiking thru the roof, to reach US$147 a barrel in 2008. The Global Economy then “tanked” and the Oil Price retraced to $30 a barrel, before starting to surge again on the suggestion that the Global Economy would recover quickly and that therefore Demand would again exceed Supply.
We are now caught in “never-never-land”, where the Global Economy can never recover back to the “old business as usual” regime, because the Global Supply of Energy will never be able to match Demand, except for a limited amount of time and at greatly increased Energy Cost to GDP ratio’s!

c) No matter what may be thought of the arguments surrounding Climate Change and how much input man has into it &/or the capacity to resolve it, there is never-the-less one absolute historical & scientific fact and that is the Climate IS Changing.
Arising from that, as this century rolls on, there are some conclusions, which may be arguable on the peripherals, but it is certain that we are rising toward the top of this particular warming cycle and some consequences will be –
1)      Rising average Temperatures
2)      Some places will be Hotter & Wetter
3)      Some places will be Hotter & Drier
4)      Ocean Levels will rise
5)      Dramatic Weather events may be more severe  

Arising from the above, Agricultural & Food production will come under increasing stress, making more & more difficult to provide for the still growing Global Population.
Agricultural & Food production, will also come under increasing stress from a reduction in availability and an increasing cost of, ENERGY, which is set to decline in Crude Oil, but also many other sources, as this century rolls on.

So, whilst Japan had the benefit of being one of the few poor performing Economies, at a time when the rest of  the Global Economy was Booming, the rest of the world is now descending into a long Economic Decline from a number of sources and it is difficult to see any likely saviour on the horizon!

Good luck & watch the Debt!

A few observations -
1) Much of the OECD is already below the replacement level Fertility rate, which is 2.1 children per woman.

2) There have been some substantial moves toward lower Fertility rates since 1984 and quite a few have had greater reductions, than that of the well publicised China, via their one child policy.

BEIJING (AP) — China's population is aging rapidly, the government said Thursday, though its leaders are refusing to relax strict family planning controls that are part of the cause.

The results of a national census conducted late last year show the proportion of elderly people in the country of 1.34 billion jumped, while that of young people plunged sharply.

China's rapid aging has fueled worries over how long the country will be able to sustain its high economic growth, as fewer young people are available to work in factories and build the roads that transformed it into the world's second biggest economy after the United States.

The census results show that people aged 60 and above comprise 13.3 percent of the population, up nearly 3 percentage points from 2000. Young people aged 14 and below accounted for 16.6 percent, down 6.3 percentage points from a decade ago.

The results also showed that 49.7 percent of the population now lives in cities, up from about 36 percent 10 years ago.

Wang Feng, a population expert and director of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy in Beijing, said the census results confirmed that China's population has turned a corner, with massive migration flows and a fertility rate of no more than 1.5 children per couple.

"That is alarmingly low for a large country like China," Wang said.

Link -
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iRtbWWvKi6aqp6_Oxr1GQuvhBUPg?d...
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What would be alarming, would be if China was still had a TFR of 6 children per woman, where it was in the 1960's and it had a total population that had already gone thru the roof and was heading into the stratosphere!

Timelines - a Human perspective

Perceptions_Now, your're inputs are informative and insighful. 10/10


I must 'correct' an earlier post. I do believe the Chinese and 'yellow' Asian population won't crash. I believe the INDIAN (curry muncher version) will crash instead - be it via all-out Nuclear War with Pakistan (cuz they don't have Polaris) or be it a crash of mass poverty death and disease that is survived by the guilty rich that enjoys the entertainment brought on by Cricketers, etc that get paid $millions while many starve to death ???

It's the obvious but forbidden truth: on a finite and already swollen planet, we can't expand indefinitely.

Some time in the next few months, the world's population clock will tick over 7 billion people. This has immense implications for all of us, and Australia will not be immune from the impacts.

No one can confidently predict where we will find the food, energy, water and resources needed to supply even the basic needs of so many people. On a finite planet, we are already using up far more than we can replenish, literally exhausting the environment on which we rely for our survival.

For decades, overpopulation has been off the international agenda. It is barely mentioned in the media, and is rarely discussed in relation to, say, climate change or the looming global refugee crisis. Yet it is the common factor that links all our global problems, and ignoring it condemns billions of people to lives of poverty and injustice.

The essential requirement of a sustainable system is that it can be continuing. Yet the global economic system is based on the need for perpetual growth of output and consumption that clearly cannot last indefinitely. Australia's economy is based on two especially precarious principles: extracting as rapidly as possible mineral resources that have taken millions of years to accumulate, while propping up our housing and retail markets with a continuing influx of extra consumers.

How much longer can we exponentially expand our demand for energy and resources?

One day a politician will be brave enough to speak the obvious but forbidden truth: that on a finite planet we cannot continue to exponentially increase our consumption of natural resources, nor survive as a civilisation if we keep adding billions more people to our already swelling planet. Until then, I fear we are creating a dangerous world for our children and grandchildren.

Link -
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-idiocy-of-endless-growth-2...
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I agree!