In the vein of documenting how the world most likely will look one generate hence, my researcher and I have been taking a look at a number of key global drivers. One, of course, is how we govern ourselves (you can see posts on that topic here and here). Another is global population.

Working with data from the US Census Bureau and International Data Base, we’ve also overlayed some information from Internet World Stats, though for now, the fit is imperfect. Still and all, I found a lot to note in these reports. Thirty-odd years from now, the world is going to be a pretty different place, population wise. I’ve loaded the entire deck, created by my research manger LeeAnn Prescott, up on Slideshare. It has more detail, but I’m going to hit the main points in this post. First, to the basics. Here are population projections by world regions for 2013 (the year What We Hath Wrought comes out), and 2045 (roughly 30 years later):  



As you can see, Europe is shrinking, Asia and Africa are booming. Put another way:


North American stays pretty constant, but African eats into Asia’s dominance. Important, for sure, but as we’ll see later, life expectancy will have something to say about all this. Before we go there, however, check out the top countries in terms of increased population:


LeeAnn points out a “long tail” of population forming, in other words, by 2045 population will be far less concentrated in the top ten countries. A list of the fastest growing and fastest declining countries also is of note:


Let’s pivot to the media age of populations. This is a key metric of social stability – societies dominated by young people are often restive, in particular if they find themselves under autocratic regimes. The detailed data on the Middle East and North Africa for example, that shows that region moving from an average age of 26 in 2013 (young and restive) to nearly a decade older (older, more interested in stability).  Note that the median age in Africa is rising toward what could augur instability by 2045. Asia and Latin America are aging the fastest.




A list of oldest and youngest countries is interesting (above), as is the average life expectancy, where Africa, which had the most room to make up, adds more than a decade.


By country, it’s interesting to note that the US is not on the list of top nations in terms of life expectancies.


Link -
http://battellemedia.com/archives/2011/11/the-world-in-one-generation-population...
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A few observations -
1) Whilst this report suggests that the Global Population may continue to grow to over 9 Billion, by 2045, I would suggest for various reasons (including lack of Food & Energy sources) that the Global Population will struggle to reach 8 Billion.
In fact, instead of the large growth suggested in Africa & Asia, I would suggest those areas are going to struggle and they may even be in  decline by 2045.

2) Africa, in particularly, will really struggle, under severe Food production restraints, a lack of natural Energy sources and Climate Change, intervening strongly.

3) The Global Median Age will also increase more than expected, due to the decline in Population in younger areas, such as Africa & Asia.

Russia has lost 2.3 million people in nearly a decade, according to the official results of the county’s second post-Soviet census, released on Friday.

Russia’s population declined from 145.2 million in 2002 to 142.9 million last year, the statistical agency, Rosstat, said.

Low birthrates and declining life expectancy have had the most effect on Russia’s heartland rural areas, with 8,500 villages said to be have been abandoned since 2002.

Of Russia’s 134,000 villages, 19,400 are now empty.

The new data also suggests that there are now 10.7 million more women than there are men - up from 10 million in 2002. The population’s average age is now hovering around 39 years - again up from 37.7 in 2002.

Link -
http://en.riasp@m/russia/20111216/170298252.html
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There are ups & downs, in the Population Decline process, but the overall trends involve lower Demand accross a range of "Goods & Services" and therefore a slowing Economy!

Given that this Population Decline is a long term process, there is little to no point in trying to artificially inflate Economic Growth, at great cost to national Debt to GDP ratios, but which will show very little benefit to an overall Economy!

WASHINGTON — The population of the United States grew this year at its slowest rate since the 1940s, the Census Bureau reported on Wednesday, as the gloomy economy continued to depress births and immigration fell to its lowest level since 1991.

The first measure of the American population in the new decade offered fresh evidence that the economic trouble that has plagued the country for the past several years continues to make its effects felt.

The population grew by 2.8 million people from April 2010 to July 2011, according to the bureau’s new estimates. The annual increase, about 0.7 percent when calculated for the year that ended in July 2011, was the smallest since 1945, when the population fell by 0.3 percent in the last year of World War II.

“The nation’s overall growth rate is now at its lowest point since before the baby boom,” the Census Bureau director, Robert M. Groves, said in a statement.

The sluggish pace puts the country “in a place we haven’t been in a very long time,” said William H. Frey, senior demographer at the Brookings Institution. “We don’t have that vibrancy that fuels the economy and people’s sense of mobility,” he said. “People are a bit aimless right now.”

Underlying the modest growth was an immigration level that was the lowest in 20 years. The net increase of immigrants to the United States for the year that ended in July was an estimated 703,000, the smallest since 1991, Mr. Frey said, when the immigrant wave that dates to the 1970s began to pick up pace. It peaked in 2001, when the net increase of immigrants was 1.2 million, and was still above 1 million in 2006. But it slowed substantially when the housing market collapsed, and the jobs associated with its boom that were popular among immigrants disappeared.

“Net immigration from Mexico is close to zero, and we haven’t seen that in at least 40 years,” said Jeffrey S. Passel, senior demographer at the Pew Hispanic Center. “We are in a very different kind of immigration situation.”

Economic trauma tends to depress births. In the Great Depression, the birth rate fell by a third, Mr. Johnson said.

Link -
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/22/us/economy-contributes-to-slowest-population-g...
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Demographics is one of the major Economic influencing factors, of the modern era, along with Cheap & available Energy, Innovation and a favorable Global Climate.

By Demographics, I mean the unrelenting Growth in Population and therefore Growth in Demand for Products & Services AND this was never more evident than during the Golden years of the Great Baby Boom, roughly from 1945-2005.

This Peak period was actually cut a little short, in the USA, and to a somewhat lesser extent elsewhere, due to the events of 9/11.

Whilst the article says, the "Economy Contributes to Slowest Population Growth Rate", it also acts in reverse, with a slowing Population Growth contributing to a slowing Economic Growth rate!

It's a bit like the self re-enforcing, adverse Climate Change Feedback loops!

Anyway, this situation has already started in Japan, the USA & parts of Europe, with most of the rest of the world now following, including China!

Emma wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2011 at 9:39pm:


This world is now full of "catch 22's" and "paradoxes" of epic proportions and with the final outcomes not quite set in stone, the end scenario's may play out in some expected ways, but also in some unexpected ways!

Japan's population decreasing at fastest postwar rate

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's population decreased in 2011 at the fastest pace in the postwar era with the decline, calculated by deducting the number of deaths from that of births, coming to an estimated 204,000, health ministry estimates showed Saturday.

The decrease was over 1.5 times higher than the revised figure of about 125,000 the year before and was the biggest since comparable data became available in 1947, the survey said. It was the fifth straight annual decline since 2007.

The estimated number of newborn babies in 2011 fell to a record-low 1,057,000, down by 14,000, while that of people who died in 2011 hit a record-high 1,261,000, up by 64,000, according to the survey by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

Of the total number of deaths, 358,000 were attributed to cancer, 198,000 to heart disease and 126,000 to strokes.

An official of the ministry predicted that Japan's population will keep decreasing at a faster pace as the number of deaths will continue to rise given the rapid aging of society, while the size of the younger generation will shrink.

Link -
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20120101p2g00m0dm030000c.html
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So goes Japan, so goes most other countries, Japan was simply one of the first few!

Emma wrote on Jan 1^st, 2012 at 10:50pm:



Er... that article is about population decline, not life expectancy decline.

So?? what do I know??

SFA.... I can spin it too.