Me thinks Australia and China are gonna swap.
China jettisons its pride in a huge population upon Australia
and
takes Australia's wealth instead.

...so soon our nation will not be one of the wealthiest, but our population will suddenly boom without the need for Boat People and New Zealanders.
Yayyyyy I'm gonna get laid!!!

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Mar 21^st, 2012 at 7:55am:


There are so few guarantees in life, but I can assure everyone, "we will all get laid (out) eventually".

Aging population to impact economy: BoC

TORONTO – The aging of Canada’s population will put upward pressure on wages as the pool of available workers shrinks, and global aging might over time lead to lower interest rates, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Jean Boivin said on Wednesday.

Aging will also affect the potential of the economy, meaning the level of activity at which it can operate without inflationary pressures, and this is something the Bank of Canada needs to assess, he said.

The high level of household debt in the country makes it even more crucial that individuals adjust their savings behaviour and plan over a longer horizon, he said in a speech in Toronto.

“As our society ages, we can either accept a lower standard of living or we can try to be proactive and adjust … The stakes are high and we cannot afford to ignore them,” Mr. Boivin said.

“There is no free lunch in that context ; something will have to give and someone will have to pick up the tab, so the least we can do is accept this fact and ensure that the bill remains small and that the burden is shared fairly.”

The mechanism for upward pressure on wages would be that with relatively fewer people left in the work force, employers will compete to attract talent.

Taken in isolation, he said, the scarcity of labour relative to capital could be expected to lead to higher wages and lower returns on capital in advanced economies, and eventually to persistently lower global interest rates.

Improved productivity, if any, would offset the downward pressure on rates.

But Canada’s tepid growth of productivity and potential output has preoccupied the central bank. Mr. Boivin said the latest estimate was for Canada’s potential output to grow by 2.2% in 2014, and without the decline in working age population it would be 0.2 percentage points higher.

“Aging is projected to continue to subtract from potential output growth until the end of the current decade,” he said.

He said Canada faced three options to avoid drastic declines in living standards or shifting too much burden on the next generations: more work, greater productivity and higher savings.

Without endorsing last week’s federal budget, he said policy steps could foster the needed adjustments and this was the objective of some of the measures in the budget.

The budget raised to 67 from 65 the age of eligibility for payments to seniors under its Old Age Security program, and hiked the age of retirement to 65 from 60 for new federal employees, starting next year.

Mr. Boivin also highlighted the important contribution of immigration to dealing with the aging problem. The budget announced plans to eliminate a backlog of stale applications by foreign skilled workers so that immigrants whose skills are in greater current demand can enter Canada faster.

He said a key challenge was to remove the barriers that keep educated and skilled immigrants from working in their fields.

Link -
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/04/aging-population-to-affect-economy-...
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Whilst there is much I can agree with in this article, there are also some areas where I would disagree!

Certainly, IF there is a perception that the burden is not being shared fairly, then that could/would lead to a great deal of Public unrest.

However, to suggest that this Aging event will only affect the Local & Global Economy until the end of this decade is a gross understatement, as it will most likely affect events for 2-3 decades, at least!

When looking at the likely effects of Aging, it must not be forgotten that this Aging event will not happen in isolation and that Peak Energy, Peak Debt & Climate Change will also be adversely influencing Economic events, over that same 2-3 decade period.

So, hold onto your hats, because WE ARE ALL IN FOR A WILD RIDE!

Growth of U.S. labor force is slowing, reports show

If demography is destiny, the U.S. economy may be in the midst of a decades-long slowdown.

The U.S. labor force is growing at about half the rate it was 20 years ago; according to recent projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it will continue to expand at a slightly lower pace through 2020.

Slower growth in the number of workers tends to hold back gross domestic product and employment, economists say. And that makes it less likely that the economy will pick up steam at the rate it did in previous recessions.

These changes in the labor force “imply that future recessions will be deeper, and will have slower recoveries, than historically has been the case,” according to a paper issued last month by James H. Stock of Harvard University and Mark W. Watson of Princeton University.

Their research shows that as much as half of the relative slowness of the recent recovery may be attributable to the fact that the growth of the U.S. labor force has declined.

“The demographics turn out to be a very important factor,” Stock said in an interview.


The slower growth in the labor force arises from two factors, according to the BLS. First, the U.S. population is growing more slowly. Second, the percentage of Americans working or seeking work will continue to decline as the population ages.

What exactly stalled the recovery from the recent recession and what might still be holding it back continue to be a matter of debate among economists and politicians.

The doddering nature of the recovery has been blamed on a variety of factors: the financial nature of the crisis, the fact that millions of homeowners are struggling with mortgage debt, the size of the government stimulus, as well as spiking gas prices, the Japanese earthquake and the European banking troubles.

The role of demographics has been relatively unexplored, and in contrast to those other causes, the decline in the labor force will probably be a persistent feature of the U.S. economy for the foreseeable future.

In the mid-1980s, the labor force — defined as the number of people working or seeking work — was growing at about 1.7 percent per year, according to Stock and Watson’s calculations. By the mid-2000s, the growth was just about half that, or 0.9 percent.

The growth, moreover, is anticipated to slow even more in the years to come. In labor force estimates published by the BLS, annual growth of the labor force shrinks to less than 0.6 percent by the end of the decade.

One of the primary causes for the decline of labor force growth is the retirement of the giant baby-boom generation. Last year, the first baby boomers, born in 1946, reached 65, the traditional age of retirement. They are less likely to work.

Second, through the 1990s, a rapid rise in the percentage of women working led to a surge in the size of the labor force. But once the percentage of women in the labor force reached about 60 percent, it stopped climbing, and economists see little immediate sign that it is likely to rise again.

The labor force participation of women “is as high as it has ever been,” said Claudia Goldin, a Harvard economics professor who has studied the issue. And “it has not gone higher in the last 20 years,” she said.

Link -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/growth-of-us-labor-force-is-slowi...
=================================

Japan’s Population Declines by Record in Challenge for Growth

Japan’s population fell by a record last year, underlining the struggle to boost growth and rein in soaring welfare costs in the world’s most rapidly aging society.

The population declined by 0.2 percent to 127.8 million as of Oct. 1, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said in a report today.

Japan faces a shrinking workforce as 2012 marks the first year the nation’s baby boomers are set to retire. The world’s third-largest economy has contracted three of the past four years and policy makers including

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa have said low growth is mainly the result of demographic changes.

“It will definitely will negatively affect long-term economic activity, especially potential growth numbers,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. “The generation of baby boomers are leaving the labor market and this demographic change could impact the fragility of the pension system.”

Japan is the world’s oldest society, with a median age of 44 years, according to a 2009 United Nations report.

“The most significant challenge confronting Japan is how to adjust to a rapid demographic change that is unprecedented in developed countries,”

Shirakawa said in a January speech.

Fiscal Quandary
Social-security expenses, which have more than doubled in the past two decades, account for 52 percent of general spending in the fiscal year that began April 1. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has proposed doubling the national consumption tax, currently at 5 percent, by 2015 to address the fiscal pressures and contain the world’s biggest public debt.

The legislation faces resistance from opposition lawmakers as well as some in his own party who’ve warned about damping domestic demand.

People aged 65 or older comprised 23.3 percent of the entire population, compared with 23 percent for the year before, according to today’s report.

Link -
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-17/japan-s-population-declined-by-large...
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Demographic IS dictating the FUTURE!

Baby Boomer Demographics: The Shift Ahead

I've been maintaining a set of these pyramids to give us snapshots at 10-year intervals spanning seven decades. My pyramids differ from the ones available at the Census Bureau website in one key respect. The CB pyramids are based on population numbers by gender for each five-year cohort whereas mine are based on percentages. Why? Because, in the absence of an overpopulation problem, the shifting ratios over time are more important than the actual numbers. By using percentages on the horizontal axis, all pyramids add up to 100%.


The chart above is a snapshot of the U.S. population 30 years ago in 1982. I've highlighted the top of the Boomer cohort, generally defined as those born during the inclusive 19-year period from 1946 to 1964. By selecting 1982 as our start date, the oldest Boomers have completely filled the age 30-34 bar in our chart and occupy the three bars below, with Generation X slipping into the bottom of the age 15-19 cohort.




The movement of the Boomer bulge up the pyramid is obvious, as is the fact that it diminishes in size as mortality rates increase. The pyramid goes from a significantly lateral shape in 1982 to an increasingly vertical arch six decades later. At present and for the next decade, our pyramid is more of a "house" shape. The greater female longevity is readily apparent.

Let's look at some comparative numbers for these seven snapshots. I've calculated the Elderly Dependency Ratios for each using the standard formula: The percentage of the population age 65 and over divided by the percentage age 15-64 multiplied by 100 (see note at bottom).


The elderly dependency ratio has major significance for U.S. budget planning. As this ratio shifts higher, the productive population is increasingly burdened by the cost of entitlement programs for the elderly.

Interestingly enough, it was 1982, the very year of our first pyramid chart, that President Reagan appointed the National Commission on Social Security Reform (aka the Greenspan Commission after its Chairman) to address the mounting financial problems of the Social Security system. The outcome included the gradual increase in the normal retirement age and taxation of benefits.


My annotations on the dependency ratios chart above suggest that we are approaching a threshold of increasing demographic burden on the financial system. The ratio has only increased 16.7% in the three decades from 1982 to 2012. But the rise from 20.4 to 26.8 over the next ten years is a 31.6% increase followed by a 21.8% increase over the following ten years.

At present, those of us who follow the economy and financial markets are looking for evidence that European sovereign debt issues won't trigger another international financial crisis. How that plays out remains an uncertainty. In contrast, we can be very certain that our accelerating demographic shift will continue to increase the political debate on entitlement expenditures, especially on the eve of a presidential election.

Despite the current focus in the U.S. on stimulus (aka "Quantitative Easing"), lurking in the wings are demographic changes that will ultimately take center stage in the financial planning of federal, state and local governments. The process will increasingly affect individuals as we adjust our retirement expectations and strategies for insuring income during our elder years.

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/877651-baby-boomer-demographics-the-shift-ahead?...
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In fact, there are quite a few variables, involved in the current Global Economic crisis!

However, one of the MOST significant is that it took all from the dawn of human history until around 1800, too get to ONE Billion people Globally.

By around 1930, the Global Population doubled to TWO Billion!

By the mid 1970's it doubled again to FOUR Billion!

Now, in 2012, we have a Global Population of just over SEVEN Billion!

There are a few other MAJOR factors influencing events, but the massive Population increase has sat quietly in the background, DRIVING the Economics of Demand & Supply.

That Exponential Population Growth is now grinding to a halt, in the US & Globally and as it does the old Economic rules of the "modern era" will become "Null & Void"!!!

Just for comparison, following is the standard/usual Population pyramid -


One of the other major current influencing factors is the reality of Energy Demand/Supply Economics.

In this respect, since around the turn of the century the P/barrel Oil Price has gone from $10, to $147, down to $40 & back up to $100 or so.

IMO the Oil Price will again Decline, as the Global Economy goes into another Severe Recession. However, that Price drop will only be for a limited time, until it becomes apparent that Oil Production is not expanding to keep up with Population & Economic needs and then it will again take off & then it will simply keep going!

Btw, Saudi may still have some spare Production capacity, but only for a limited time and pretty much all other countries & fields are already in a Depletion phase. The Saudi's must also be joining that club soon, as theirs may be the biggest fields, but they are also the oldest!

Employment: A decline in the participation rate was expected due to the aging population

10/07/2012

I've written extensively on the reasons for the decline in the participation rate. Unfortunately some people haven't been paying attention.

Two key points:
1.   Some of the recent decline in the participation rate has been to due to cyclical issues (severe recession), but . There are also some long term trends toward lower participation for younger workers pushing down the overall participation rate.

2.   This decline in the participation rate has been expected for years. Here are three projections (two from before the recession started). The key to these projections is that the decline in the participation rates was expected:
1) From BLS economist Mitra Toossi in November 2006: A new look at long-term labor force projections to 2050
2) From Austin State University Professor Robert Szafran in September 2002: Age-adjusted labor force participation rates, 1960–2045
3) BLS economist Mitra Toossi released some new projections for the participation rate as of January 2012: Labor force projections to 2020: a more slowly growing workforce.

Here is a graph of the actual overall participation rate and a few projections through 2040. The participation rate might increase a little over the next year or two, but in the longer term, the overall participation rate will probably continue to decline until 2040.


Once again, this is not a surprise. Sven Jari Stehn at Goldman Sachs put out a research note early last year arguing:


[T]here is little evidence for the idea that an “unduly” low participation rate is masking an even weaker labor market than indicated by the ... unemployment rate. Instead, we find that most of the drop in participation in recent years reflects changes in the underlying demographics and the “normal” effects of the economic cycle (i.e., the fact that [the] unemployment rate in itself is very high).




Link -
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/10/employment-decline-in-participation.ht...
==================================


As stated previuously, IF the Economy were to improve a little OR just stay on an even keel, then the UNemployment rate would decrease, due to the massive Baby Boomer Retirements.

Regrettably, I suspect that TSWHTF, due to the effects of those Boomer Reirements & a few other issues, the Economy will follow and the UNemployment rate will also start to escalate, notwithstanding the massive job openings which would otherwise be created, Millions of Boomers Retiring & therefore leaving Millions of positions for the following generations to fill.