Quote:perceptions_now
My statement referred to the slowing Fertility artes, which have been falling for quite some time.
Quote:freediver
I meant the economic numbers, not the fertility numbers. You insist that the short term downside of a decreasing population is bigger than the upside, and that the difference is significant enough to cause us problems, but you haven't presented any evidence of this.
Let me put it this way, this has never happened before, it is unique in history, so there are no hard numbers, at least none that I have seen.
That said, the National & Global economies, at their core, are based on the following major Drivers & Enablers -
1) Population Total & Population Growth, in fact Economics is based primarily on Growth, accross the board.
2) Energy, being cheap, Abundant and Supply being able to match &/or exceed Demand.
3) Innovation, coming thru, to enable continuing improvements in Productivity and therefore Profitability.
4) A financial system, capable of providing the Funding (Debt) required to grow the overall size of the economy (pie).
In all of this there is one common thread and that is GROWTH!
You have previously said, that our most concerning problem is over-population and that is correct.
As I have shown in previous posts, the Population issue has been in transition for some time already, as the Fertility rates started to decline some time ago and around 2030-2040, the total Global Population will actually start to fall. Whilst this is not good in the short to medium term, it is the only sane action, from a longer term perspective.
Put simply, it took all of human history, until 1930, to reach a 2 Billion Global population, IT WILL ONLY TAKE THE NEXT 20-30 YEARS FOR 2 BILLION PEOPLE TO DIE, MOSTLY BABY BOOMERS.
Obviously this event will be unprecedented, as will the impact on the Global economy, which has previously relied on exponential growth!
But, even before Baby boomers start dying, in ever increasing numbers, their economic effect has already, is still and will continue, to ripple thru the Natiuonal & Global economy.
The following article, may provide some idea of what I am referring to -
http://ezinearticles.com/?The-Economys-Greatest-Depression-Downturn-Ever-Is-Now-... From that article -
"The greatest force in the economy can be indisputably demonstrated to be consumer demographics, and within that the 45 to 54 year-olds demographic is just as clearly all-powerful. Things like interest rates, deficits, who is elected, and inflation are followers or consequences of the economy, not the makers of it."
If you take 50 as the median point, you can trace how much influence this Baby Boom generation has had, but the impact of that generation has already started to reduce and the generations that followed have a much lower net growth impact, particularly when Boomers start passing on.
Good luck & watch the Debt!