Japanese Population Plunges By Record In 2013

Given that young people in Japan have lost interest in sex, with 45% of Japanese women 16-24 "not interested in or despise sexual contact," it is perhaps not entirely surprising that, as Japan Times reports, Japan's population fell by a record 244,000 in 2013.

This further raises concerns over an ever-dwindling workforce that supports an ever-growing number of pensioners, with the proportion of people aged over 65 reaching nearly 40% by 2060.

Via Japan Times,

    An estimated 1,031,000 babies were born in 2013, down about 6,000 from a year earlier, the ministry said.

    

    On the other hand, around 1,275,000 people died — up about 19,000 from the previous year, the highest annual rise since World War II.

    

    As a result, the natural population decline came to a record 244,000, the ministry said, beating the previous highest fall of 219,000 in 2012.

    

    Japan’s population totalled 126,393,679 as of March 31, down 0.21 percent from a year earlier, according to a government figure.

    

    It has continually declined since 2007 by natural attrition — deaths minus births.

    

    Japan is rapidly greying, with more than 20 percent of the population aged 65 or over — one of the highest proportions of elderly people in the world. The country has very little immigration and any suggestion of opening its borders to young workers who could help plug the population gap provokes strong reactions among the public.


Link -
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-01/japanese-population-plunges-record-2013
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Gee, that's no good about "lost interest in sex"!

Ok, now that's out of the way, the Reality is that Japan is the Population Canary in the Economic Coal mine.

Simply put, the Japanese Baby Boom started & Peaked earlier than the rest of the world, with Japan's Boomer generation Peaking in the late 1980's and their Economy has since stagnated, even though most other countries were still going thru their Peak Baby Boomer Economic Boom years thru to about 2006!

I would expect, now that the Global situation has caught up with where Japan were in the late 80's AND Global Energy Supplies are now Peaking, that Japan will shortly recommence its Economic slump.

IT SHOULD BE BORN IN MIND THAT THE JAPANESE ECONOMY TODAY, IS THE GLOBAL ECONOMY OF TOMORROW!!!   

Grey wrote on Jan 4^th, 2014 at 7:47pm:


Gee Grey, IF you reckon that was cheery start to the year, you probably shouldn't read this lot -
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1277536490/990#999

or this lot -
http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-economist-stock/2012/08/29/id...

European GDP: What Went Wrong

Summary

First the two World Wars, then a decline in the birth rate.
Poor demographics have led to weak domestic demand.
Rising dependency ratios present a new challenge.

Newspapers these days are full of stories on World War I which started 100 years ago. They are also full of stories on today's anemic European economy, as for example with Italy's negative growth rate in the second quarter and France's struggle to reach 1% GDP growth this year. At first blush, these two sets of stories are unrelated. But on closer look, it is apparent that the economy today is a distant echo of the war a century ago. And it all comes down to Europe's demographics.

In my view, there are essentially three main catalysts of economic growth: innovation, demographics, and a favorable institutional framework.

Too many deaths
So going back to Europe, we could say that it has some innovation and that it has a favorable institutional framework, though in both cases to a lesser extent than the United States. What Europe lacks most is a strong demographic driver. It is enlightening in this regard to look at the sizes of European populations in the year 1900 vs. today:
Population (millions)      1900      2014      Growth      CAGR      TFR
France      38      66      74%      0.5%      1.98
Germany      56      81      45%      0.3%      1.42
Italy      32      61      91%      0.6%      1.48
Russia      85      146      72%      0.5%      1.53
Spain      20.7      46.6      125%      0.7%      1.50
United Kingdom      38      64      68%      0.5%      1.88
Brazil      17      203      1094%      2.2%      1.80
China      415      1370      230%      1.1%      1.66
Egypt      8      87      988%      2.1%      2.79
India*      271      1653      510%      1.6%      2.50
Indonesia      45.5      252      454%      1.5%      2.35
Japan      42      127      202%      1.0%      1.41
Mexico      12      120      900%      2.0%      2.20
Nigeria      16      179      1019%      2.1%      6.00
Philippines      8      100      1150%      2.2%      3.07
United States      76      318      318%      1.3%      1.97

First, in 1900, European countries were not only the world's economic and military powers. They were also among the most populous countries in the world. By contrast today, Russia is the only country in the top 10 most populous.

Second, comparing European population sizes in 2014 vs. 1900 reveals a very slow annual increase in the 114 year period.

Too few births
In general, a large number of countries are facing a more challenging demographic period in the next fifty years compared to the last fifty. Since the 1970s, there had been a steady decline in the dependency ratios (the sum of people under 14 and over 65 divided by the number of people aged 15 to 64) of the US, Western Europe, China and others. This decline is explained by a lower birth rate and was accelerated by large numbers of women joining the workforce in several countries. There were fewer dependents and more bread winners than in previous decades.

In future years, dependency ratios are expected to rise due to the aging of the population in most countries and a decline in the number of workers per dependent. In the United States for example, baby boomers are swelling the number of dependents who rely on younger generations to support them in retirement (whether through taxes or through buoyant economy and stock market). But because boomers had fewer children than their parents, the burden on these children will be that much greater than it was on the boomers themselves.

In effect, our demographics have pulled forward prosperity from future years.

Note in the table below that the dependency ratio of Japan bottomed around 1990 which is the year when its stock market reached its all-time high; and that the dependency ratios in Europe and the US bottomed a few years ago around the time when stock markets reached their 2007 highs. The fact that several stock indices are now at higher peaks than in 2007 can be largely credited to America's faster pace of innovation and to near-zero interest rates.

Europe is in a bind in the sense that, even if it had the wherewithal to do so, it cannot now raise its birth rate without making its demographic situation worse in the near term (by raising its dependency ratio faster).

Dependency Ratios      1950      1970      1990      2000      2010      2015      2020      2030      2050
World      65      75      64      59      52      52      52      53      58
Brazil      80      85      66      54      48      45      44      46      59
Russia      54      52      50      44      39      43      48      54      67
India      68      80      72      64      55      52      50      47      48
China      63      77      51      48      38      38      40      45      64
Europe      52      56      50      48      46      50      54      61      75
Japan      68      45      43      47      56      65      70      75      96
USA      54      62      52      51      50      53      56      64      67
Africa      81      91      91      84      78      76      73      67      59

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2422295-european-gdp-what-went-wrong?ifp=0
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Whilst much of what the author is says is correct, it is also true that there are additional factors influencing events, with the most influential of those being -
1) Energy - Supply & Pricing
2) Climate Change - Food Production (reduction) & Declining Water Supplies.

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant.

Demographics - Likely The Trigger Event That Began The Great Recession And The Reason It Won't End Anytime Soon

WWII is still reshaping our economic reality. The massive global loss of life in WWII and its birth dearth during the war created a demographic hole (unusually high death / unusually low births over a 5 to 10 year period). The subsequent baby booms in the US and globally in Japan, Europe, and so many more locations which were affected by the war created a "pig in the python" moment. This unusually large wave of population growth from '45-'55 was "pent up demand" from the war. Those of family rearing age who waited, those who remarried, and those who fretted…they rushed to make up for lost time over the decade after the wars conclusion. But the subsequent generations were in no such rush and in fact began an ongoing process of slowing the creation of families and children.

But society and its leaders assumed this baby boom anomaly to be the new reality. They built an entire economic system on the one decade anomaly. But that wasn't enough. They had to layer the anomaly with the unsustainable and the previously immoral levels of usury (renamed and rebranded as leverage, credit) and economic policies only effective as the passing of the pig was imminent. The baby boom group or entity spanning 10 years will in 2015 turn a collective 60-70yrs old. The "pig is passing" from the American and global workforce into retirement and now the wreckage and folly of such basic misnomers has come home to roost…and will get far worse. Central bank and government actions to create the problems and subsequent responses should be seen for what they are…entirely self-serving and ineffective.

A global multi-variate tipping point was reached in 2007 - too many older boomers leaving the system and too few to replace them. This all put too many requests on that system…

Too many unsustainable layers with inadequate support collapsing in on the system below. In 2007 the total population of 25-54 year olds and total employed within the 25-54 year olds peaked. The total US population of 25-54 year olds has fallen 1 million since, 25-54 year old employees have fallen nearly 4 million, while the 55+ cadre has ramped by almost 8 million.

The impact is likely even stronger in Japan, Europe, and other locals upon which the war was waged. The loss of life higher, the birth dearth higher, the subsequent baby boom larger…and the current adjustments even more difficult.

Nearly 70 years later and WWII's primary participant nations are now aging rapidly and have taken on great debt to serve the aging populations. And these only show the formal on the books debt to GDP but nations like the US have up to 5x's the formally recognized debt…which from a growth perspective is akin to trying to perform an open water swim with an anchor around your neck…

The chart below shows the formal debt to GDP of the top 20 some economies compared with the % of their populations 65 years and older. These nations to the left of the graph are substituting debt for falling demand…but their populations are rapidly aging and this makes them incapable of the growth rates that would be necessary to pay down debt or even service debt at "market" rates. Instead, governments and central banks are keeping the monetary pedal to the metal to maintain "normalcy" and avoid the ultimately unavoidable adjustments.


The chart below shows why the debt is such a problem…look at the growth in total debt vs. Federal tax receipts. That $2 trillion in federal tax receipts could sustainably pay for $98 trillion in total debt…well that's a tough one to swallow. It's obvious why the Fed and central banks are doing everything in their power to disguise the simple fact the US, Japan, and many more nations have gone bankrupt.



The growth is in part time, 55+ employees and total population. 25-54yr/old employees and full-time jobs are falling.


Lastly, this one surprised me some…but government job growth has not been the demon I had heard about…


http://seekingalpha.com/article/2774435-demographics-likely-the-trigger-event-th...
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In fact, Japan is the "Canary in the Coal mine", in terms of these Demographic issues, as they Peaked earlier (around 1990) and they simply have not recovered, despite much of the rest of the world having experienced a once in history Boom from 1995-2005, which came crashing down in 2007.

Perceptions now is a dangerous lunatic who should be prime minister.

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 7^th, 2015 at 3:25pm:


I think it is an utter furphy that population must rise constantly.

Yes, there will be an imbalance for a while, but then, after 20-30 the balance will return or even swing the other way.

There are many examples of large proportions of European populations being wiped out (20-40%) but they all recovered.

Very interesting, thanks for the statistics. Only read this page though.

Does Our Aging Society Mean The End Of Big Growth In The United States?

Summary

    Most of the wealth in the US, approximately $13.9 trillion, is held directly or on behalf of people over the age of 60.
    By 2020, 75 million people will be over 60 (24% of the population).
    What does this mean for US economic growth?

Sometimes the biggest changes happen so slowly that people don't notice them.

Although it is widely known that people are living longer and that the baby boomers are retiring, few are talking about how monumental the demographic changes are and how these changes affect everything -- business, government, culture, and international policy.



Economists know that US labor participation rates are the lowest in 38 years, the lowest since the 1970s economic malaise under President Carter.

Various sources, such as the Congressional Budget Office, attribute about half of the decrease in growth to aging workers choosing to exit the workforce. But could our aging population have an even greater negative effect on growth?

To put it in perspective, during the Great Depression in the 1930s, about 6 million Americans were over the age of 65 (5.3% of the whole US population at the time). By 2020, 75 million people will be over 60 (24% of the population).

We know that risk-taking, entrepreneurship, and overall rates of innovation decline with age. The older you are, the less likely you are to invest in riskier growth assets, start a business, or invent something.

Most of the wealth in the nation, approximately $13.9 trillion, is held directly or on behalf of people over the age of 60.

Perhaps this dynamic helps explain why the Federal Reserve is having such a difficult time motivating the broader financial community to invest in small business and growth enterprises.

The few countries with even slower growth rates than the United States are Japan and in Europe, where societies are seeing even more extreme aging. In Japan, where populations have shrunk for the third straight year, more people pass on than are born.

In the coming decades, Europe and Japan will see their working-age populations shrink by 30 million and 37 million respectively.

If an aging society is the prime driver of diminished growth (i.e., the "new normal"), then many of our current fiscal and monetary policies will continue to have limited impact.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2856486-does-our-aging-society-mean-the-end-of-b...
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A few observations -
1) As I have said previously, Demographics is the Economic Motor of the World!
2) The Demographic Growth trend of the world, in particular of the last 200 years, is now changing, as the Global Population first Ages over the next 10-20 years and then actually starts to Decline thru until the end of this century.   
3) The major effect of these Demographic changes, will be a steady Demand Decline, over many decades and with that goes an actual Decline in Economic Growth, due to the larger % of older 65 years + (increased by about 10%) and a reduction in younger 0-15 years (decrease by about 10%), over the last 40 years or so.
4) However, there are also other factors, which are also influencing events, including Energy Supply & Pricing AND Climate Change.
Both of these additional factors, will prevent a simple repeat of the last Baby Boom, to rectify our current Economic problems, as a lack of Food & Water, plus a lack of cheap & available Energy Supply means that continued actual Global Population Growth is now an IMPOSSIBILITY!
5) So, we can't go forward & we can't go back, at least we can't do so, in the usual manner of firing up the Demographic Engine of the Economic World!
What we will have to do, is change and the changes must start now and they must start with Politics!
What we can do,is to change Government Revenue & Expenditure streams, with fair adjustments across all sectors.
But all sectors must be involved or the final outcome/s will please none!