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The Population Debate (Read 181909 times)
freediver
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #30 - Jun 23rd, 2010 at 6:31pm
 
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But, if WE don't start taking the correct decisions soon and putting those decisions into action to change the future, then the future may not be all that rosy?


What are those decisions? It looks pretty rosy to me. We are overcoming the biggest problem threatening our way of life.

Quote:
but all the scaremongering about the population aging is mainly being pushed by economists and politicians


Make that the business sector and politicians. Economists tend to be a bit more philosophical about it, at least in my experience. The business sector doesn't like the problem of a labour shortage, because it means higher wages. Personally, I don't have a problem with it. If there is one thing we want to be short on, it is people looking for work.

Quote:
But can anyone imagine what will happen to this planet if the people in China,India and others aspire the same wastefull consumer spending that is so prevalent in the developed countries, and can we tell them, they are not entitled to it.


China is going to achieve it by keeping their population in check. India could go either way. It is going to be the problem. The implications will be mixed. As the Chinese get wealthier, the price of beef and other food items will go up, but the price of consumer goods will go down, as the global economy will get a whole lot bigger. Maybe our farmers will start making money again.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #31 - Jun 23rd, 2010 at 7:11pm
 
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freediver
We are overcoming the biggest problem threatening our way of life


And, what problem would that be?
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #32 - Jun 23rd, 2010 at 7:15pm
 
Overpopulation.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #33 - Jun 23rd, 2010 at 7:27pm
 
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What are those decisions?

1) Reducing the overall immigration intake and adjusting Public policy to ensure that the Total Australian population, begins to slowly Decline over time, not increase.

2) Commence measures to reduce our Overall Energy footprint, over time, as Energy is set (notwithstanding objections from Gizmo) to become scarce & more expensive, a lot more!

3) Undertake a complete review of all governments, government related bodies & their impacts on society. Included in these reviews, should be -
A simplification of Taxation.  
A disbanding of one arm of government, local councils.
A complete review of all Revenue & Expenditure.

An attempt, over time, to reign in Public Debt, without impacting the Publics disposal income, too radically, as seems to be what the Conservatives in the UK are about to try.

They might be a starting points of reference.

However, I should also say, that none of this will make much difference, if OZ does it, but the rest of the world continues trying to maintain the status quo!
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #34 - Jun 23rd, 2010 at 7:33pm
 
freediver wrote on Jun 23rd, 2010 at 7:15pm:
Overpopulation.


I agree, that is the absolute centre of many of our problems and that it is slowing before finally going into reverse in 20-30 years!

But, that is a long term work in progress, in the interim, the next 20-40 years won't be anything like the last 20-40 years and there will be some great economic difficulties, at least over that timeframe!
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #35 - Jun 23rd, 2010 at 8:22pm
 
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Reducing the overall immigration intake


This would make the aging population issues worse, not better.

Quote:
Commence measures to reduce our Overall Energy footprint, over time, as Energy is set (notwithstanding objections from Gizmo) to become scarce & more expensive, a lot more!


Our energy footprint is one of the most meaningless measures available. Energy will get more expensive, at least in the short term, but it will never be scarce. It is how we get energy that matters, not how much we use.

Quote:
But, that is a long term work in progress, in the interim, the next 20-40 years won't be anything like the last 20-40 years and there will be some great economic difficulties, at least over that timeframe!


You still haven't provided any meaningfull numbers on this.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #36 - Jun 23rd, 2010 at 10:59pm
 
freediver wrote on Jun 23rd, 2010 at 8:22pm:
[quote]Reducing the overall immigration intake


This would make the aging population issues worse, not better.

I take the view that it is better to start addressing the total Population issue, sooner rather than later, because the later it is left, the more serious will be the situation.

It is therefore a choice between to evils, bad in the short term or worse in the long term.

I would opt to take a not so pleasant medicine now, rather than go thru chemotherapy later and hope for the best.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #37 - Jun 23rd, 2010 at 11:08pm
 
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perceptions_now
Commence measures to reduce our Overall Energy footprint, over time, as Energy is set (notwithstanding objections from Gizmo) to become scarce & more expensive, a lot more!


Quote:
freediver
Our energy footprint is one of the most meaningless measures available. Energy will get more expensive, at least in the short term, but it will never be scarce. It is how we get energy that matters, not how much we use.


Then use another term, if you want. What I'm saying is that we will have to use less energy, here in OZ & Global!

And, I don't see anyway that Energy will not get more expensive, but also more scarce.
With the Global Population set to continue to increase for another 20-30 years and Oil production set to decline, in real terms, at around 4-8% on estimates I have seen and that are already coming thru, Energy will definitely be more scarce!

Btw, both Production & usage do matter!
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #38 - Jun 23rd, 2010 at 11:18pm
 
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Perceptions_now
But, that is a long term work in progress, in the interim, the next 20-40 years won't be anything like the last 20-40 years and there will be some great economic difficulties, at least over that timeframe!


Quote:
freedriver
You still haven't provided any meaningfull numbers on this.


My statement referred to the slowing Fertility artes, which have been falling for quite some time.

According to the UN medium variant rate table, which is available at the following site, the Fertility rate could fall below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, in around 2035-2040.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #39 - Jun 24th, 2010 at 11:19am
 
The Lost Decade, U.S. Edition


If you have read Harry S. Dent's The Great Boom Ahead as well as the sequel The Great Depression Ahead, and still are not convinced of the critical importance of demographics on the economy and markets, then there's nothing I can say to convince you. Move on.

And if you haven't read them, please do yourself a favor and read them. Just discard the "commodities cycles", "presidential cycles", "yearly cycles" and so forth, and focus on demographics.

The earliest babyboomers are 55 years old now, well past their peak spending years and into their retirement savings period. The later boomers, in their late forties, would be entering their peak spending years; but the scares and scars of the 2008 crisis may have forced them to enter the saving phase earlier than usual. There are many reports indicating that boomers may have been hit harder by lay-offs, and have a harder time re-entering workforce due to their age. In addition to damaged or even destroyed home equity nest eggs, the risks on social security and Medicare have risen sharply due to the dismal state and future outlook of the federal deficit, especially for the late boomers.
In terms of housing, boomers may be forced to either forego the usual trade-up or even trade down.

The result is declining productivity, consumer spending and debt (deleveraging), and continued weak demand on housing. The decline will continue until circa 2016, followed by a small rebound of 2-3 years, then resume until the early 2020's. But it's hard to say whether the small rebound would manifest into the financial markets.

To make matters worse, Europe and Japan have entered the declining phase earlier and will be stuck in the glut longer.

Can governments save us all by money printing? Japan stands as a resounding answer of "NO" to this question. They've ramped up a huge pile of public debt, sucked up domestic savings, created a huge counter-productive bureaucracy, and nothing else. If it weren't for the extremely resilient private sector and domestic savings culture, Japan would've been in much worse shape today. I can't help wondering if it would've been much better if the government had not engaged in the futile deficit spending and the domestic savings had gone to the private sector.

If the above sounds familiar, it's because that's exactly what the US government has been trying to do. Except we won't have nearly as much domestic buying of the debt in relative terms. Uncle Sam's ability to borrow and print directly and singularly hinges on the dollar's reserve status. But the world has been actively looking for alternatives; the lunacy of some of the proposals only speaks to the desperation. How long can we count on the world's failure in this regard? Desperation is the best motivation. If the situation becomes grim enough, alternatives that sound lunatic today may appear more and more plausible.

The only hope is to create another asset bubble, or a series of them, with wide participation that last beyond 2025. A better Ponzi. BIC may be the only candidate big enough to support such a grand Ponzi. But how do we participate in that? Can they please be stupid enough to participate? Well, good luck with that.

Interestingly, Europe seems to have embarked on a very different approach to the same problem: austerity. Even the new Japanese prime minister seems to lean towards that direction. It's the only right thing to do, but it remains to be seen whether they can implement it because the short-term pain would be high. I'll write more about this later. But in any case, I don't see any political will in the US to follow suit.
Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/211418-the-lost-decade-u-s-edition?source=email
===============
A couple of observations -
1) How would Japan have gone, if the rest of the world had got sucked into this problem, at the same time as Japan did, 20 years ago?

2) Aust-erity will not fix the problems, it will only make it worse, we are steadily going down similar paths, to the 1929 Depression, we need to pull back and look at issues with a new perspective!
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #40 - Jun 24th, 2010 at 9:05pm
 
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What I'm saying is that we will have to use less energy, here in OZ & Global!


Why can't we use more, and just obtain it in a way that hos a lower footprint?

Quote:
With the Global Population set to continue to increase for another 20-30 years and Oil production set to decline


The majority of our energy does not come from oil.

Quote:
My statement referred to the slowing Fertility artes, which have been falling for quite some time.


I meant the economic numbers, not the fertility numbers. You insist that the short term downside of a decreasing population is bigger than the upside, and that the difference is significant enough to cause us problems, but you haven't presented any evidence of this.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #41 - Jun 25th, 2010 at 11:41am
 
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perceptions_now
With the Global Population set to continue to increase for another 20-30 years and Oil production set to decline


Quote:
freediver
The majority of our energy does not come from oil.


Actually, it does!

In the USA, the planets largest consummer of Energy, Oil is nearly twice as large, as the next two major Energy components (Natural Gas & Coal), that are currently in use and the remaining Energy sources, whilst the may expand, are currently minor.

That said, the following chart, which comes from the EIA, is of usage in the USA and whilst the mix in other countries will be variable, the Global mix is likely to be pretty close.  

If you are referring to what produces the most energy, then that is of course the sun, but solar technology is not currently at a point where it could replace Oil, Coal & NG and in a number of aspects, in may never do so.

Btw, both NG & Coal are both similar to Oil, in that they are finite resources, which have limits and those limits are not that much behind Oil!

...
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #42 - Jun 25th, 2010 at 12:20pm
 
Quote:
perceptions_now
My statement referred to the slowing Fertility artes, which have been falling for quite some time.


Quote:
freediver
I meant the economic numbers, not the fertility numbers. You insist that the short term downside of a decreasing population is bigger than the upside, and that the difference is significant enough to cause us problems, but you haven't presented any evidence of this.


Let me put it this way, this has never happened before, it is unique in history, so there are no hard numbers, at least none that I have seen.

That said, the National & Global economies, at their core, are based on the following major Drivers & Enablers -
1) Population Total & Population Growth, in fact Economics is based primarily on Growth, accross the board.
2) Energy, being cheap, Abundant and Supply being able to match &/or exceed Demand.
3) Innovation, coming thru, to enable continuing improvements in Productivity and therefore Profitability.
4) A financial system, capable of providing the Funding (Debt) required to grow the overall size of the economy (pie).

In all of this there is one common thread and that is GROWTH!

You have previously said, that our most concerning problem is over-population and that is correct.

As I have shown in previous posts, the Population issue has been in transition for some time already, as the Fertility rates started to decline some time ago and around 2030-2040, the total Global Population will actually start to fall. Whilst this is not good in the short to medium term, it is the only sane action, from a longer term perspective.

Put simply, it took all of human history, until 1930, to reach a 2 Billion Global population, IT WILL ONLY TAKE THE NEXT 20-30 YEARS FOR 2 BILLION PEOPLE TO DIE, MOSTLY BABY BOOMERS.

Obviously this event will be unprecedented, as will the impact on the Global economy, which has previously relied on exponential growth!

But, even before Baby boomers start dying, in ever increasing numbers, their economic effect has already, is still and will continue, to ripple thru the Natiuonal & Global economy.
The following article, may provide some idea of what I am referring to -
http://ezinearticles.com/?The-Economys-Greatest-Depression-Downturn-Ever-Is-Now-...

From that article -
"The greatest force in the economy can be indisputably demonstrated to be consumer demographics, and within that the 45 to 54 year-olds demographic is just as clearly all-powerful. Things like interest rates, deficits, who is elected, and inflation are followers or consequences of the economy, not the makers of it."

If you take 50 as the median point, you can trace how much influence this Baby Boom generation has had, but the impact of that generation has already started to reduce and the generations that followed have a much lower net growth impact, particularly when Boomers start passing on.  

Good luck & watch the Debt!
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #43 - Jun 25th, 2010 at 2:07pm
 
If my assumptions prove to be correct, then I would see the following graph of New Housing in the USA continue its overall downwars trend, for some time to come.

The above graph comes from the following Seeking Alpha article -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/211524-housing-numbers-show-worst-data-ever-reco...


...



I would also suggest the following correlations, as food for thought -
1933 - 1983 (Birth rate starts to increase - Economy & Share markets start to rise)
1945 - 1995 (Birth rate goes into high gear - Economy takes off)
1956 - 2006 (Birth rate Peaks - Economy Peaks)
1964 - 2014 (End of Boomer Gen - ???)

Good luck, watch the Debt & hope for Innovations, because Energy has Peaked!
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #44 - Jun 25th, 2010 at 4:20pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Jun 25th, 2010 at 2:07pm:
If my assumptions prove to be correct, then I would see the following graph of New Housing in the USA continue its overall downwars trend, for some time to come.

The above graph comes from the following Seeking Alpha article -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/211524-housing-numbers-show-worst-data-ever-reco...


http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2010/6/23/saupload_new_home_sales_lt.png



I would also suggest the following correlations, as food for thought -
1933 - 1983 (Birth rate starts to increase - Economy & Share markets start to rise)
1945 - 1995 (Birth rate goes into high gear - Economy takes off)
1956 - 2006 (Birth rate Peaks - Economy Peaks)
1964 - 2014 (End of Boomer Gen - ???)

Good luck, watch the Debt & hope for Innovations, because Energy has Peaked!


For anyone wanting to check, to see how those dates relate to stock markets, the following graph may be of assistance.

...
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