Demographic boom getting ready to bust

That ticking generational time bomb that politicians have been warning and arguing about for 30 years is about to explode on Jan. 1.

That’s the day when the first of roughly 80 million baby boomers turn 65. The boomer generation was the largest in American history until the Millennial Generation, those under 30, came along.

Whether you are a boomer or not, demographic trends will affect everything from taxes to immigration.

In the midst of one of the most transformative demographic shifts ever, the United States is rapidly becoming grayer and browner.

Eighty percent of those over 65 are white, compared to 56 percent of those under 15 — with Hispanics accounting for almost all the minority growth among children. By 2030, according to the Brookings Institution’s chief demographer, William Frey, 71 percent of the over-65 population and 46 percent of children under 15 will be white. Over the next decade, he predicts the working-age population will include 5 million fewer whites and 15 million more minorities, with 90 percent of the latter growth coming from Hispanics.

In coming decades, the working-age population’s growth will be among demographic groups with the least education and work skills. The high school dropout rate for Hispanics, for instance, is about twice the national average, Frey said.

At the same time, the huge generation of boomers is about to cash in on unsustainable entitlement promises.

“You have an older, whiter generation that is really going to be sucking up all the money in the future (through) Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and interest on the debt that they have run up during their tenure of running things, versus a poorer, more minority generation that is not getting the money,” Davis said.

What does this mean for you?

If you are a senior or approaching retirement with adequate savings and a pension, not much beyond a generational urge to make your grandchildren’s’ country as strong and as prosperous as it has been for you.

But some seniors may work longer, due to a lack of savings or because they work in professions like the sciences, where a dearth of qualified young workers may result in incentives to boomers to postpone retirement.

But if you are younger, higher taxes — or serious adjustments to expectations — appear inevitable. It is very difficult to see how the United States solves its long-term debt and entitlement promises without higher taxes for the middle class and the rich, or by cutting retirement-focused entitlement programs.
Tax-and-spend tensions are already emerging, with House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer saying this week that a serious discussion needs to take place before Congress permanently extends middle-class tax cuts passed in the early months of Obama’s administration.

These are the hard truths that Americans say they want to hear from their politicians, but rarely do. Such positions often turn into political death sentences at the next election.
Link -
http://rocnow.com/article/opinion-syndicated-columns/20106240348
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What will the Boomer Bust mean for OZ?

For a starter, higher taxes on those who can most afford it!

Lower Benefits & Services, for some!

An absolute efficiency drive, by governments at all levels and probably one less arm of government!

A complete simplification of Services, Outlays & Revenues, particularly the Tax system!

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I have previously agreed that over-population is one of the BIG problems and that we need to lower the total Global population, sooner rather than later, but it does need to be done gradually.

That said, I stand by my assertion that the decline in Population Growth, followed by an actual decline in total Global population, on the scale that is likely, is unprecedented.

This decline in Population Growth and total actual population levels, particularly when combined with the Boomer generation Aging and Peak Oil, can only lead to a massive decline in Demand and the end of the Exponential Economic Growth Fairy!

With respect, I must disagree with you regards Exponential Growth, it is in back of everything including Population, Economics, Money Supply, Energy Resources & more. The assumption is that there is & will be a constant exponential growth. Almost every time an Politician & Economist etc open their mouth, they talk about Growth.  

In any event, we shall see what happens over the next 10-20 years.

But, I am now saying clearly, that Growth is coming to an end and there will be massive ramifications & costs, arising from these events.

In the longer term, we have no option but to bear these costs now, because the longer we postpone the inevitable, the greater will be those ramifications & costs!    

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No it isn't. Every time a major plague swept through Europe and caused a major population crash, it resulted in an immediate improvement in quality of life.

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Have you ever done any serious study of economics?

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There is no such assumption. You are merely confusing the actual trend of long term growth that has been going on for a long time with assumptions or fundamental requirements. The only thing that depends on growth is growth.

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Growth in population is coing to an end. Growth in oil consumption is too. To suggest that growth in everything else must come to an end as a result of this is misinformed.

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Tell me about coal. When do you think we will start running out?

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Do you mean, like all of those Economists, who had all that training and didn't pick, what is so far, at least the 2nd biggest Economic slowdown in the last 100 years?

If so, the answer is no!

However, I did have 40 years in the Financial sector, including Insurance, Banking & Finance.

And, yourself?

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The basic premise of what I am saying is that there is no such thing as exponential growth, everything on this planet has limits and for things such as Population & many of our essential resources are now bordering on those limits.

Whether you agree with me or disagree, is really relevant, as the proof will come in future years, again the next 10-20 years, will show the way.

If you haven't looked into these areas, the following sites may be of  interest. They are lengthy, but there is a great deal of valuable information in there, they are both very insightful people.   

Link (Dr. Albert A. Bartlett - Arithmetic, Population, and Energy) –
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=9B70AC68E1D2AA54&search_query=Dr.+Albert...

Link (The Crash Course – Chris Martenson) -
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

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Only because the population is so much higher. Apparently there are more people alive today than were ever alive previously.

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Yes they did. The economists at the reserve bank put our interest rates up well in advance. The fact that you did not understand what was going on in front of your face does not mean the economists (or anyone who has taken the time to look into this) don't understand what is going on. Or do you only trust economists who can predict the future with accuracy and detail?

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Growth of what? We can become wealthier, better off, etc, without exponenetial growth in population or energy consumption. You are basing your economic theory on piecing together random utterances about a subject you do not understand.

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The only thing without limits is wealth. Our wealth today would be totally incomprehensible to someone from 500 years ago. They would not think it possible. To them, it would be indistinguishable from magic.  You are that person from 500 years ago making predictions based on nothing but the limitations of your understanding and imagination.

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Out of curiosity, your own background is?

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So, are you for reducing GHG and if so, why?

As you see it, what are the major factors involved in making GHG emissions worthy of your/our interest and how do you see this issue unfolding?