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The Population Debate (Read 181937 times)
bahamian
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #60 - Jun 27th, 2010 at 11:56am
 
Perceptions_now, aka nedwin aka PiNhead is a blow hard who just likes the sound of his own voice, none of his predictions come to anything, he has been predicting a slump in house prices for years, that is why he dumped his old ID nedwin, because he has been dis-credited so many times it ain't even funny any more.
The only person who takes any notice of him is pansi the hygienically challenged, minimum wage, trolly-dolly (oh, and gold investor) and she is as daft as a brush.
I think he gets his crackpot theories from some flakey fringe publication or other, but for sure he can safely be ignored.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #61 - Jun 27th, 2010 at 12:59pm
 
Julia Gillard's first act - dumping 'Big Australia'


JULIA Gillard has used her first major announcement to reassure disenchanted voters that she does not believe in a "big Australia" with a population target of 36 million.

The policy is clearly at odds with former prime minister Kevin Rudd, who announced the "big Australia" targeting 36 million people by 2050 just as a new wave of asylum-seekers arrived off our shores.

Ms Gillard announced Labor would produce what is in effect a two-speed immigration policy to match Australia's two-speed economy, but admitted it was "a very difficult problem".

"Australia should not hurtle down the track towards a big population," she said.

She said the new policy was not intended to open an immigration debate. "This is not about bringing down the shutters in immigration," she said.

"It is a debate about planning affected by many factors - water supply, open space, infrastructure, ensuring the appropriate tax base to support our ageing population, the need for skills and the need to preserve a good quality life.

"Parts of Australia are desperate for workers, but other parts are desperate for jobs; having a smart and sustainable population strategy coupled with the right skills strategy will help improve this balance."

She has consequently renamed Tony Burke's portfolio the Ministry of "Sustainable" Population, and announced he will produce a comprehensive policy in answer to the population problem later this year.

"I do not support the idea of setting arbitrary (population) targets of, say, 'a 40-million-strong Australia'.

"I don't want business to be held back because they couldn't find the right workers. That's why skilled migration is so important.

"But I also don't want areas of Australia with 25 per cent youth unemployment because there are no jobs."

Link -
http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/julia-gillards-first-act-dumpin...
============
A change in words, does not necessarily make for a change in actions.

We should await the actions first, before saying change IS happening.

That said, its now over to the "Abbott of the Monastery" & the Liberals, to see if they are going to change their course?
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djrbfm
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #62 - Jun 27th, 2010 at 1:20pm
 
for once, someone's got it right.
NO MORE 2ND CLASS PPL HERE.
they are degrading Australia.
we're a becoming a dumping ground.
up your's to any Gov't that supports a big Australia.
we'll vote you out.
GOT IT?
j.
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perceptions_now
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #63 - Jun 27th, 2010 at 1:42pm
 
djrbfm wrote on Jun 27th, 2010 at 1:20pm:
for once, someone's got it right.
NO MORE 2ND CLASS PPL HERE.
they are degrading Australia.
we're a becoming a dumping ground.
up your's to any Gov't that supports a big Australia.
we'll vote you out.
GOT IT?
j.


I am not sure, what you mean by 2nd class people?
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #64 - Jun 27th, 2010 at 2:28pm
 
Quote:
So, are you for reducing GHG and if so, why?


You should start a new thread if you want to change the topic. I would start a new thread asking you to explain when you think coal will run out, but I doubt that would get me a straight answer either.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #65 - Jun 27th, 2010 at 3:35pm
 
freediver wrote on Jun 27th, 2010 at 2:28pm:
Quote:
perceptions_now
So, are you for reducing GHG and if so, why?


You should start a new thread if you want to change the topic. I would start a new thread asking you to explain when you think coal will run out, but I doubt that would get me a straight answer either.


No thanks!

You introduced GHG as a main interest for you, I was simply asking you to elaborate on what you said, was of interest for you.

If you don't wish to explain your main interest, that's up to you, but its' not something that I would start a fresh thread on myself.

And, if you wish to start on new thread on coal, that's also for you to decide, but I did indicate, where you would find an answer, which is as usual, "it depends".

That said, it is unlikely there will be the endless supply or the 1,000 or even 500 years, as suggested by some reports.

In fact, if current rates of Economic & Population growth were to continue, which I suspect they won't, then coal could go the same as Oil is now & NG will within 20-30 years, whilst Coal may take slightly longer at 40-60 years.

It really does DEPEND on what changes we make to Economic & Population GROWTH, now & in the immediate future!
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #66 - Jun 27th, 2010 at 5:23pm
 
Quote:
If you don't wish to explain your main interest, that's up to you


I am more than happy to, just not as a subject changer in this thread. If you are really interested, go ahead and ask. There are plenty of other threads already where I have discussed it at length.

Quote:
In fact, if current rates of Economic & Population growth were to continue, which I suspect they won't, then coal could go the same as Oil is now & NG will within 20-30 years, whilst Coal may take slightly longer at 40-60 years.


There are known reserves to last at least a century on a business as usual model. we could outlast that without even having to look for more.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #67 - Jun 27th, 2010 at 5:30pm
 
Quote:
perceptions_now
If you don't wish to explain your main interest, that's up to you


Quote:
freediver
I am more than happy to, just not as a subject changer in this thread. If you are really interested, go ahead and ask. There are plenty of other threads already where I have discussed it at length.


Actually, I do have an interest in Climate related issues, so if you can point me in the direction of those previous threads, I would like to have a read and that will save your time going thru it, again.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #68 - Jun 27th, 2010 at 6:24pm
 
This one focusses on the economics of taxation vs trading and more direct government intervention:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1168051896

I tend to participate less in the scientific and moral arguments, mainly because I haven't looked into the science much. But there are a heap of them on the environment board.
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People who can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bug me in ways I cannot put into words.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #69 - Jun 27th, 2010 at 7:51pm
 
freediver wrote on Jun 27th, 2010 at 6:24pm:
This one focusses on the economics of taxation vs trading and more direct government intervention:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1168051896

I tend to participate less in the scientific and moral arguments, mainly because I haven't looked into the science much. But there are a heap of them on the environment board.


Thanks, I will have a look!
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #70 - Jul 7th, 2010 at 1:42pm
 
World Population Day Highlights an Increasing Global Issue


Attention is drawn to the Earth's population growth and its social and economic impacts when World Population Day is marked on July 11 each year

World Population Day was established after public consciousness of the ever-increasing number of global inhabitants was raised when Five Billion Day was marked on July 11, 1987. Since that significant number was reached on or about that date, the global population has continued to grow steadily, and now stands some 6.8 billion people. While the rate of increase in the global population has eased in recent years, the number of people on planet Earth continues its steady rise.

World Population Trends and Dynamics
Every aspect of human, social and economic development is affected by population dynamics. While some countries of the developed world are now experiencing a marked decrease in population growth, and some even show signs of a reduction in numbers due to aging populations, the opposite applies and will continue to do so in the majority of developing nations, most noticeably in their cities.
World Population Day is an initiative of the United Nations Development Programme, and aims to concentrate global attention on the urgency of overpopulation. Promoted by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), World Population Day is given a topical theme each year to provide a focus for activities within communities around the world. In 2009, the theme was Educate Girls, highlighting the role of women as economic agents in the fight to reducing poverty.

World Population Day 2010
In 2010 the spotlight falls on the importance of accurate data for development. Everyone Counts is about encouraging people to participate in their official census and other methods of collecting data on populations. Such data is the basis for the information critical to developing and implementing sound social policies and programmes that address poverty, and in the words of UNFPA itself, “ensure that every pregnancy is wanted, every birth is safe, every young person is free of HIV, and every girl and woman is treated with dignity and respect.”

Working with national and local governments, other United Nations agencies, NGOs and the private sector, UNFPA raises awareness of the effects of population growth, mobilises support for programmes and provides access to resources.

Link -
http://worlddevelopment.suite101.com/article.cfm/world-population-day-highlights...
===
Whilst it is correct that the Global population is still growing & will continue to do so, for another 20-30 years, the actual growth rate has been in decline for over 40 years.

Given the trends, it seems likely that the Global Fertility rate & the Total Global population may both turn to negative around the period 2030-2040.

For those followers of Economics, you will understand that these reduced growth rates (fertility & Total population), will place marked stress points on the current Global mode of Economic Capitalism!

Whilst the Global economy can & in fact must deal with prolonged Economic stagnation and actual declines in growth, the transition will be difficult, given that such a large part of the world will be in transition at the same time and that the period involved will be so lengthy.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #71 - Jul 7th, 2010 at 7:22pm
 
Quote:
Given the trends, it seems likely that the Global Fertility rate & the Total Global population may both turn to negative around the period 2030-2040.


Wouldn't you expect one to lag significantly?

Quote:
For those followers of Economics, you will understand that these reduced growth rates (fertility & Total population), will place marked stress points on the current Global mode of Economic Capitalism!


Don't you mean for those who don't understand economics? I can't understand why you repeat this vague claim when you can't even explain what you mean by it.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #72 - Jul 7th, 2010 at 7:50pm
 
Population Growth Must Stop

Much has been written about population growth since the first edition of Malthus's famous essay was published in 1798.

The widespread acceptance and political influence of modern neoclassical economics is a central part of our global problem. In one widely used economics textbook, Principles of Economics, Greg Mankiw wrote that “A large population means more workers to produce goods and services. At the same time, it means more people to consume those goods and services.” Speaking for many neoclassical economists, Tim Harford concluded, in The Logic of Life, that "The more of us there are in the world, living our logical lives, the better our chances of seeing out the next million years." The absurdity of Harford's statement must be recognized and challenged.

Economists do not deserve all the blame. As Thomas Berry noted, in The Great Work: Our Way into the Future, "Western civilization, dominated by a cultural arrogance, could not accept the fact that the human, as every species, is bound by limits in relation to the other members of the Earth community."

Nowhere is acceptance of the twin towers of economic growth and increased consumption more apparent than in the United States, where "growing the economy" is still paramount, despite the leftovers of a financial meltdown created by banking and shadow banking systems run amok and a Gulf fouled by gushing oil. As Andrew Bacevich noted, in The Limits of Power: The End of American Exceptionalism, "For the majority of contemporary Americans, the essence of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness centers on a relentless personal quest to acquire, to consume, to indulge, and to shed whatever constraints might interfere with those endeavors." Yet evidence that modern economics has let most people down is abundant.

More than two decades ago Edward Abbey wrote, in One Life at a Time, Please, that "[W]e can see that the religion of endless growth--like any religion based on blind faith rather than reason--is a kind of mania, a form of lunacy, indeed a disease," adding that "Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell."

Barbara Ehrenreich wrote, in This Land is Their Land: Reports from a Divided Nation, that "The economists' odd fixation on growth as a measure of economic well-being puts them in a parallel universe of their own. . .the mantra of growth has deceived us for far too long." Whether in local areas, the United States, or the world, no problem that I can think of will be more easily solved with additional millions of people.

Continued population growth is unsustainable, as is continued growth in the production of oil and other fossil fuels. As Lester Brown argued, in PLAN B: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble, "If we cannot stabilize population and if we cannot stabilize climate, there is not an ecosystem on earth we can save." As Alan Weisman wrote, in The World Without Us, “The intelligent solution [to the problem of population growth] would require the courage and the wisdom to put our knowledge to the test. It would henceforth limit every human female on Earth capable of bearing children to one.” Started now, such a policy would reduce Earth’s population down to around 1.6 billion by 2100, about the same as the world population in 1900. Had we kept Earth’s population at that level we would not be having this conversation.

Discussion Questions
1. Are there things we can do to get the population issue more into public discussion?

2. Are there other approaches to limiting population that might be more salable?

3. If Social Security is not sustainable, having fewer children will increase the likelihood that older adults will have no way of taking care of themselves. How does one deal with this issue?

Link -
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6676
========
I recommend this author, she is a senior writer for "The Oil Drum", but her knowledge extends into areas other than Oil!
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perceptions_now
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #73 - Jul 7th, 2010 at 8:05pm
 
Quote:
perceptions_now
Given the trends, it seems likely that the Global Fertility rate & the Total Global population may both turn to negative around the period 2030-2040.


Quote:
freediver
Wouldn't you expect one to lag significantly?


By negative, I mean that -
1) The Fertility level will actually fall below the replacement level of 2.1 children, per woman.
2) The Total Global Population will actually start to decline.

And, in answer to your question/statement -
No, that is not automatic!

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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #74 - Jul 7th, 2010 at 8:37pm
 
Retiring Age Movements



France
In an effort to slash their deficit and tackle an unruly pension system, France is boosting its retirement age from 60 to 62. The country's new retirement age will take full effect by 2018.

The new plan, which also includes higher levies on capital gains, stock options and other investment income, has been heavily criticized by national trade unions. However, Labor Minister Eric Woerth forecasts that the changes will result in balanced pension accounts by 2018 and a 100 million euro surplus by 2020.

Even with the age hike, France will still have the lowest retirement age in the developed world.

Britain
This June, the British government announced they too have plans to increase the U.K.'s retirement age and reform pensions. The pension age is currently set to rise from 65 to 66 by 2016 and up to 68 by 2046. However, more recently, the U.K. government revealed that the retirement age could jump as high as 70.

Although U.K. unions and charities are attacking the new plans, British politicians say the increase is necessary due to a neglected pension system and ever-increasing life expectancies. The U.K.'s current life expectancy is 77 years for men and 81 for women.

Germany
In 2007, the German government voted to gradually raise the nation's retirement age from 64 to 67, starting in 2012. The country's incredibly low birth rate and aging population played a major role in this decision. While Germany has one of the lowest birth rates in Europe, the country's 65+ population is estimated to double by 2035.

Greece
Greece is also planning to bump up the country's official retirement age from 61 to 63 by 2015. Like many other flat broke countries, the Greek government is making the change in an effort to balance its budget and save the nation's pension system. Labor Minister Andreas Loverdos claims the pension system will be drained in five years if the country doesn't make the changes.

Greece, which has been devastated by a national debt crisis, has even considered banning early retirements altogether. Like citizens in Germany, France and the U.K., Greeks are furious and many workers are vehemently protesting the controversial plans.

Link -
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2010/07/02/investopedia45235.DT...

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