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The Population Debate (Read 181946 times)
freediver
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #90 - Jul 12th, 2010 at 6:49pm
 
Quote:
Australia has always had a negative population growth


What do you mean by that?

Quote:
I think Australia can support 300 million people


Sure, so long as you are happy to live of nothing but green goo grown in a vat of your own excrement.

Quote:
"What parts of professors arithmetic were dodgy?"


For starters, it is communicated via video. That is not exactly a sensible way to communicate arithmentic, is it? What is it with you and videos? Don't you realise how useless they are for this sort of thing, unless your purpose is to avoid scrutiny?
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #91 - Jul 12th, 2010 at 8:10pm
 
Quote:
perceptions_now
"What parts of professors arithmetic were dodgy?"


Quote:
freediver
For starters, it is communicated via video. That is not exactly a sensible way to communicate arithmentic, is it? What is it with you and videos? Don't you realise how useless they are for this sort of thing, unless your purpose is to avoid scrutiny?


This is not 1910, it's 2010 and as you rightly pointed out, in another post, we humans have made some big strides in the last 100 years, in technology.

The internet & ALL THAT IT ENABLES is one of the great leaps and that includes posting videos for many reasons, including reaching a larger audience to convey information to, rather than relying on the few attend live lessons/conventions etc.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #92 - Jul 12th, 2010 at 8:46pm
 
I have nothing against using the internet. I think it's great too. But if you want to communicate any detailed technical information, you do it in writing. If you want to fluff your way through it, you do it orally, or in video. Get it now?

No-one is going to take you seriously if you can't explain your own views in your own words and you think a video is a good reference to back up your argument.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #93 - Jul 12th, 2010 at 9:14pm
 
freediver wrote on Jul 12th, 2010 at 8:46pm:
I have nothing against using the internet. I think it's great too. But if you want to communicate any detailed technical information, you do it in writing. If you want to fluff your way through it, you do it orally, or in video. Get it now?

No-one is going to take you seriously if you can't explain your own views in your own words and you think a video is a good reference to back up your argument.



I am happy to post my own article or parts of someone' else's, which I feel conveys some useful information or I will post an article or video with my own comment, all of which I do regularly and am happy to continue to do here &/or elsewhere.

Of those who read my starting post of "What is the Motor of the World and why is it stopping?", on "The Future/s" thread, most will come away with some understanding of where I am come from and going to, but there is a great deal of information available to back up "personal statements" and I am also happy to provide that, which I did in that article, that thread & I do elsewhere.

I am sorry, if you don't like the way I present information, but I am unlikely to change my approach!

People can either believe my personal statements &/or the accompanying video's & articles or not, that is everyone's choice, including you!

That said, I am more interested in the message!

If you disagree with the information/message, then it is your choice & anyone else's choice, not to read what I post &/or view the video's &/or read the articles.

We all make our own choices!  

Btw, I have no great interest in the "detailed technical information", I am happy to leave that to others.

Do you get it, now?
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« Last Edit: Jul 14th, 2010 at 11:49am by perceptions_now »  
 
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #94 - Jul 14th, 2010 at 1:47pm
 
Low population growth a big worry


KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia is worried about its declining population growth rate and whether there will be enough young adults after it becomes a developed country.

Statistics show that the population growth rate has dropped to 2.2% in 2008 from 2.6% in 2000. The declining trend has been in evidence since the country’s first census in 1970.

“If we do not take appropriate steps, we will have an aging population in the next 20 to 30 years,” said National Population and Family Development Board director-general Datuk Aminah Abdul Rahman.

She was speaking to reporters at a seminar on Population, Environment and Climate Change, which was opened by Women, Family and Community Development Deputy Minister Heng Seai Kie here yesterday.

Several factors had caused the fertility rate to decline, she said, adding that more people were getting married at an older age and preferring to have fewer children.

“Malaysian families are also worried about the future, cost of living and their inability to balance their work and family responsibility.”

Aminah said that an aging population also meant that the young were increasingly made to support the elderly.
link -
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/7/13/nation/6653397&sec=nation
========
A couple of observations -
1) It is apparent, from this and other articles & statements (particularly by Politicians & Economists), that LOW POPULATION GROWTH IS A GREAT CONCERN, at least in some circles, such as Politicians & Economists.
2) It is also apparent that Low Population & Economic GROWTH, are also of great concern, in those same circles.
3) It is also apparent that an AGING Population, is also of great concern, in those same circles.

I can only agree that there are legimate concerns involved in each of the above and that there will be a great deal of pain involved, in the transition periods.

However, these are SHORT TERM problems and with goodwill, from all, they are not insurmountable.

That said, if left by Politicians, Economists, Big Business & the Public, for the Future to somehow magically resolve, they will only fester into larger, species threatening problems, involving -
1) Over-Population!
2) Essential Resources Depletion/Exhaustion!
3) Catastrophic Climate Change, brought on by all that over-Population implies!

There are choices to be made, between a better now or a future for our children.

DO NOT RELY ON POLITICIANS, their timeline focus only goes to the next election!

If the RIGHT (CORRECT) things are to be done, YOU & I, will have to say what we want, clearly & unmistakeably.

If you want to be taken seriously, then vote out every incumbent Politician, at the next election & again at the following, until they get the message and take the RIGHT (CORRECT) ACTIONS!
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #95 - Jul 14th, 2010 at 7:54pm
 
Quote:
I am happy to post my own article or parts of someone' else's, which I feel conveys some useful information or I will post an article or video with my own comment, all of which I do regularly and am happy to continue to do here &/or elsewhere.


True. The only thing you can't or won't do is answer some very simple questions about a theory you repeat frequently. Why is that?

Quote:
People can either believe my personal statements &/or the accompanying video's & articles or not, that is everyone's choice, including you!


This is another odd thing. Most people actually think they are right and are therefor a ble to convince others. Otherwise, aren't you just wasting your time? The only people who 'believe' what you post are people who already believed it anyway.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #96 - Jul 14th, 2010 at 8:28pm
 
Quote:
perceptions_now
People can either believe my personal statements &/or the accompanying video's & articles or not, that is everyone's choice, including you!


Quote:
freediver
This is another odd thing. Most people actually think they are right and are therefor a ble to convince others. Otherwise, aren't you just wasting your time? The only people who 'believe' what you post are people who already believed it anyway.


Well, you could be correct?

If so, God help us, because the chaos theory, will not!

Problem is, we may then need to rely on an unproven theory of religion?

I prefer to think that we all have a brain and that it can think logically.

Hopefully there will be sufficient people who are convinced by the logic of the opinion of one, to change the future?

In any event, I am now retired, having spent far too long work in the financial sector and I have the time to invest in this venture.

Only time will tell, whether the investment will pay a reasonable dividend or as you put it, I simply wasted another valuable resource?
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #97 - Jul 14th, 2010 at 8:33pm
 
Quote:
perceptions_now
I am happy to post my own article or parts of someone' else's, which I feel conveys some useful information or I will post an article or video with my own comment, all of which I do regularly and am happy to continue to do here &/or elsewhere.


Quote:
freediver
True. The only thing you can't or won't do is answer some very simple questions about a theory you repeat frequently. Why is that?


Well, much of what I am on about, is in my article "What is the Motor of the World and why is it stopping?", but if you are looking for anything in particular, ask away!

But, as I have already said, I am not into the details!
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #98 - Jul 15th, 2010 at 6:10pm
 
I must have missed that article. It sounds like it answers the questions about your economic theories. Would you mind linking to it again?
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #99 - Jul 15th, 2010 at 7:40pm
 
freediver wrote on Jul 15th, 2010 at 6:10pm:
I must have missed that article. It sounds like it answers the questions about your economic theories. Would you mind linking to it again?


http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1276844918/all

Happy reading?
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #100 - Jul 15th, 2010 at 8:36pm
 
freediver wrote on Jul 14th, 2010 at 7:54pm:
Most people actually think they are right and are therefor a ble to convince others.



This is why most people are wrong - being right and being able to convince others are not connected in any way. But a lot of people operate along such fallacies.






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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #101 - Jul 18th, 2010 at 12:00pm
 
Hans Rosling on Global Population Growth


A short video on the issues, with some interesting slants?

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2010/07/hans_rosling_on.html
==============
Also, a few comments from the site, to show the complexity of views -
1)  Rosling's self-loathing plan to turn the western world into some kind of chattel for the poorer world fails to take into account that most of the western world's population is already starting to crash. He should have had cut the western box in half for the 2050 segment.

In any case, it seems Rosling confuses correlation with causation. Rosling clearly has the relationship backwards. If a country reduces its birthrate then it climbs out of poverty. All of the nations he emphasizes, China, India, Bangladesh and so on emphasized birth control first and became less poor next.

2) What if a country just receives wealth? Will that alone control its population? Quite the opposite. Saudi Arabia discovered oil in 1938 and established a welfare state. Its population went from 4 million in 1960 to 29 million today.
Have a look at this chart. Stunning. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Saudi-Arabia-de...

Rosling's plan is a plan to get the developing world's population to 10 or 15 billion. Eventually a nasty resource limit will be hit and the wealthier nations would have to ditch the poor to feed themselves. An ugly outcome indeed.

What liberals always struggle to grasp is that free markets are usually the most merciful. Utopian it is not.

3) Yes, there is a moment at about 8 minutes in, where he makes a statement that the only way to get world population to stop is to get survival rates up. But there is no backing that up with an explanation of how that helps. He is not grappling with how to provide food and water and energy to the 9 billion people. He suggests that "green tech" will help. But it all feels like "wave a magic wand" and it will work out, as long as we can get population to top out at 9 billion.

Though Hans says he is possiblist, not an optimist, I would like to understand his view on what makes feeding and supporting 9 billion consumers (not to mention 6 billion), all moving toward a developed world consumer lifestyle, possible. It is the challenge of the century.
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #102 - Jul 19th, 2010 at 4:41am
 
perceptions_now wrote on Jun 17th, 2010 at 9:43pm:
Japan's Population Problem

Low fertility rates and longer life spans are leading to an older and smaller population.

Japan's population is aging and declining. Two main forces are responsible: declining fertility rates and lengthening life spans:
1. Fewer babies. A total fertility rate of 2.1 would keep a population stable, assuming no migration. Japan hit this level in 1960, falling persistently below since 1975. The total fertility rate reached a low of 1.26 in 2005.

2. Longer lives. Japanese women attained the longest life expectancy among 228 countries in 1982, according to World Bank data, and have held that position to now.

Smaller workforce
Japan's population peaked in 2004 at 127.8 million. Current projections expect the rate of decline to accelerate to 1% annually by 2050. The workforce hit its high in 1999 and is now already 2.5% smaller.

A smaller workforce and an aging population imply that the ratio of workers to non-workers will fall. The conventionally measured dependence ratio--the number of workers that must cover the dependent population of young and retired--compares the number of people in the 15-64 year old age group to all others. The fertility collapse and aging have pushed the ratio down to 1.8 this year, with a projected ratio of one worker per dependent after 2050. Were this to happen, the consequences for taxes, transfers and incentives could be enormous.
Link -
http://www.forbes.com/2010/06/14/japan-population- aging-business-oxford-analytica.html?feed=rss_busi ness
======
Some things that await the rest of the world, over the next 20-30 years.


The Japanese also live longer than westerners because of the diet and the communal living they entail. They eat from rough memory around 147 different types of foods along with brown rice as opposed to white rice. White rice being the bad one and brown rice being the better one.

It is like the difference between eating white bread all your life and brown/husk seed/wholemeal bread.

Some also attribute the climate being very high above sea level for longevity of the Japanese. Lesser use of oxygen.

In regards to the Australian population debate. We need to find better ways of building houses. Growing our own food and buying less of the junk from supermarkets.

Mind you not all of the food from Coles Group LTD and Safeway is junk just a set principle of it is not fantastic nutritionalist food. You are free to support which ever food [corporation] you want.

Japan have already one of the world's fastest transport systems in the world's most earth quake prone region but they manage

http://factsanddetails.com/japan.php?itemid=852&catid=23&subcatid=153

We could also learn from the Japanese example by making a bullet train of our own since we are not a earthquake prone region and I'd definately want one for example getting from Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne or Adelaide. The bullet train can go very fast and is a highly efficient form of transport versus our old electrical clunker system. Which is nothing to be ashamed of.

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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #103 - Jul 19th, 2010 at 5:38pm
 
Coping with World Population Boom and Bust – Part II


In a growing number of countries, average fertility rates have fallen below replacement levels, the numbers necessary to ensure stable population. While concerns about shrinking populations have arisen in the past, the issue now affects almost all regions of the world.

Have fun now: When these Japanese kids grow up, they'll have to work doubly hard - to support themselves and their elders NEW YORK: “Sweetie, please have a baby!” No, this isn’t the gentle plea of a would-be father or eager grandparent-to-be. It is the appeal of a growing number of governments concerned with the consequences of low birth rates.

Today, in one country out of three, fertility is below two children per woman, the level necessary to ensure stable population numbers, or, in the term preferred by demographers, the 'replacement' of generations. In some countries, such as Armenia, Italy, South Korea, and Japan, average fertility levels are now closer to one child per woman.

In the absence of immigration, when fertility remains below the two-child replacement level long enough, a population shrinks and ages. This is the projected future for most low-fertility countries. In a couple of generations, for example, the Italian population is projected to be 20 percent smaller than it is today, with the working age population (15-64 years) shrinking by some 40 percent. It is not difficult to imagine the social and economic consequences of such a drastic change.
The picture for Europe as a whole is not much different than Italy’s. By mid-century, Europe’s population is projected to be 13 percent smaller, with the working age population declining by 27 percent, and the median age increasing by a third, reaching 50 years. Population decline and aging is also in the future for Japan, Singapore, and South Korea. In contrast, Australian and Canadian populations, which also have below-replacement fertility levels, and the United States, which has fertility near replacement, are expected to continue growing throughout the century – a trend due largely to immigration.

Many governments view low birth rates, with the resulting population decline and aging, to be a serious crisis, jeopardizing the basic foundations of the nation and threatening its survival. Economic growth, defense, and pensions and health care for the elderly, for example, are all areas of major concern
.


While population decline has been an issue in the past, today’s concerns are more widespread, involving virtually all regions of the world. Also, these concerns have extended over a lengthy period of time, and consequences have become progressively evident to governments as well as the general public. In addition, the problem of below-replacement fertility is spreading rapidly.

Will government policies, incentives, and various other pro-natalist measures be sufficient to raise birth rates to replacement levels? Taking into account the considerable social, economic, and political constraints, the policies most governments will be able to offer may have only a modest – and temporary – effect on raising fertility. It also seems likely that fertility may increase somewhat above the very low rates of today as the lowering effect of postponing childbearing runs its course over the coming years.

Nevertheless, current and foreseeable efforts available to most governments to raise their fertility rates seem highly unlikely to succeed, at least for the near term. In other words, a government appeal to Sweetie to have a baby is unlikely to reverse the trend any time soon – even with a little sugar on it.
Link -
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/coping-world-population-boom-and-bust-%E2%80%...
========
Moreover, the longer term problems of over-population, given declining essential resources, makes even a short term 2nd Baby Boom, to get over the hump of the first great Baby Boom, absolutely untenable!
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Re: The Population Debate
Reply #104 - Jul 19th, 2010 at 5:59pm
 
For anyone who hasn't seen it before!

Go to the below site & download -
Years to Add Each Billion to World Population  Download

We have come a long way, in a short span of time?

http://www.prb.org/Publications/GraphicsBank/PopulationTrends.aspx

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