US could be broke in 15 years: economist
One of the world's most eminent experts on public finance says the west is headed for a fiscal crisis of the state, and the United States will be broke within 15 years unless it addresses its unsustainable budget deficit.
Professor Alan J. Auerbach from the University of California, Berkeley, who is director of the Burch Centre for Tax Policy and Public Finance, says western nations must raise taxes and cut spending to meet the huge financial burden of an ageing population.Yet to do so now risks destabilising the global recovery.
Professor Auerbach is in Sydney for a conference hosted by the Australian School of Taxation and the Institute of Chartered Accountants.
He says G20 leaders face an unenviable task as they prepare to meet in Canada.
"They have a bit of a high wire act going on here. The problem is that the economies in the US and Europe are so weak as the result of the recession and there's a general view of economists that withdrawing stimulus could be dangerous," he said.
"On the other hand, the events in Greece and Spain and other countries have made forcefully evident the need for these countries, as well as countries like the United States and the G20, to make significant fiscal adjustments in the near future.
"The best of all possible worlds would be to maintain fiscal stimulus in the short run while simultaneously making credible policy actions now that will make fiscal adjustments occur in the not-too-distant future."
However, Professor Auerbach says those two actions are contradictory and impossible to implement simultaneously.
"That's impossible and that's the problem. On the one hand you have some people in Europe, for example in Germany, moving toward immediate fiscal consolidation," he explained.
"You have the United States not doing so and frankly, a country that takes only expansionary fiscal actions now and says it will do something about its long-term problems some time in the future, is not very credible in that claim.
He says one problem is the unpopularity of any US moves to reduce its deficit.
"The Obama Administration is bending to political reality in the United States which, at the moment, is unaccepting of the need for fiscal consolidation," he added.
He also describes as "pretty absurd" the position of the 'Tea Party' movement, which is strenuously resisting any potential tax increases.
Broke in 15 years
Professor Auerbach's research over recent years has highlighted how increasingly unsustainable the United States' public finances have become.
"The United States, at the Federal level, has raised a fairly stable share of GDP and taxation, typically around 18 or 19 per cent. On the other hand spending has been rising very steadily and it's projected to continue rising, to a large extent because of our expenditures on what we call entitlement programs - large government transfer programs for old-age pensions and for medical care," he explained. "These costs are rising in the United States. They're rising in other developed countries as well, both because of the rising cost of medical care and the increasing share of the population that's elderly. And these costs will continue to grow even with measures that the US and other countries are undertaking to adjust these." He says that raises a serious prospect that the world is headed for a fiscal crisis that extends beyond Greece, Spain and the other heavily indebted European nations.
"Something has to happen to alleviate that risk and may happen but it'll require a lot of courage from politicians," he warned."Under current projections, the United States debt to GDP ratio will reach an all time high within the next 15 years. That is it'll be higher than the debt as a share of national income that we left World War II with.
"Unlike, in 1946 though, when we didn't have very significant fiscal commitments and were able to start reducing our debt very rapidly, the US in 15 years will be in no position to stop accumulating debt.
"So we're heading toward an unsustainable level of debt in 15 years, capital markets presumably will look ahead and understand that and not let us get to the end of that 15 year period."
In the worst scenario, he says America could face the same problems that Greece is experiencing where capital markets basically go on strike and refuse to fund the debt.
"We do not have 15 years. The capital markets will react sooner. The US may have a little bit more time than another country in a similar situation as long as the dollar is the currency that people hold and that investors flee to when there's general turmoil in financial markets," he cautioned.
"The US will have a little bit more flexibility and time to respond but this time is not limitless and we will have to respond in a fairly short number of years."
He does not think the US is alone. When asked what other countries may be in a similar fiscal position, Professor Auerbach responded: "Virtually all the developed countries, certainly in Europe."
Link -
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/22/2933526.htm============
The prof is right, but he is also wrong.
The USA & Global economy is heading for trouble, but it won't take 15 years to get here!