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The Future/s? (Read 49634 times)
iamtheman012
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Re: The Future/s?
Reply #15 - Jun 21st, 2010 at 5:15pm
 
Well she'd better lift her game because longweekend and Iamtheman are outdoing her in the joke and lack of fact department.
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Skippy, what 'facts' would you me to provide mate?
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perceptions_now
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Re: The Future/s?
Reply #16 - Jun 21st, 2010 at 5:17pm
 
iamtheman012 wrote on Jun 21st, 2010 at 5:15pm:
Well she'd better lift her game because longweekend and Iamtheman are outdoing her in the joke and lack of fact department.
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Skippy, what 'facts' would you me to provide mate?


iam, it seems you may have lost a little "want"?
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iamtheman012
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Re: The Future/s?
Reply #17 - Jun 21st, 2010 at 5:20pm
 
iam, it seems you may have lost a little "want"?
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No, i think i lost some 'like'.

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perceptions_now
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Re: The Future/s?
Reply #18 - Jun 21st, 2010 at 5:26pm
 
Is Global Economic Growth Slowing Already?


Compared to past economic recoveries, this one has not yet kicked into high gear. Now, I’m starting to wonder if it will. The U.S. economy is growing, but we need growth overseas if we are going to maintain our growth. Unfortunately, Europe is very sluggish and that is not likely to change. Some of the emerging markets such as China and India are still growing, but China’s efforts to dampen inflation will almost certainly slow its economy too. As you can see from this chart from UBS, we have barely gotten going and global growth is already showing signs of slowing down:

...

In this chart from Thomas Berner, Chief U.S. Economist, at UBS, we can see how sluggish things are around the world.

The blue lines show the actual gross domestic product for the world. The steady gold line seems to refer to an average growth rate over time. During a recession, actual GDP falls below the line, but then in a recovery it shoots above the line. In the past, growth rates for the world’s economy frequently hit 5%, 6% or 7% per year for a while after a recession ended. Not this time.

There are many factors to which I could point, but I think uncertainty over the future is the number one retardant.
Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/210898-is-global-economic-growth-slowing-already...
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There are reasons, why things are not behaving the same, this time -
Debt increasing Globally
Enegry Declining Gloablly
Aging Population, set to anchor growth, now.
Population total, set to Decline and anchor Growth, in the longer term.
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perceptions_now
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Re: The Future/s?
Reply #19 - Jun 21st, 2010 at 5:31pm
 
Btw, anyone who wonders what Economics has to do with Politics and both have to do with the future, you may like, want or need a discussion with Bill Clinton!
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perceptions_now
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Re: The Future/s?
Reply #20 - Jun 21st, 2010 at 5:59pm
 
Money, Faith, Austerity, And a Failed System


If the price of gold were not soaring, baffling the likes of Fed Chief Ben Bernanke who seems to think it is just an ordinary commodity and a monetary relic, it might be a little more difficult to explain to economists like Paul Krugman why there is a big move toward austerity now sweeping the globe. But, it is, so it’s not.

Despite the best intentions of the dismal set that has cajoled governments into printing trillions of dollars in recent years in an ineffectual attempt to sustain that which is unsustainable, a lot of people are now more scared of a currency collapse or some other systemic breakdown of a failed system than they are of breadlines. Sadly, this reality seems beyond the grasp of some economists, the most recent example being this commentary where the author doesn’t even know why no one will explain it to them.

Press German officials to explain why they need to impose austerity on a depressed economy, and you get rationales that don’t add up. Point this out, and they come up with different rationales, which also don’t add up. Arguing with German deficit hawks feels more than a bit like arguing with U.S. Iraq hawks back in 2002: They know what they want to do, and every time you refute one argument, they just come up with another.

Here’s roughly how the typical conversation goes (this is based both on my own experience and that of other American economists):

German hawk: “We must cut deficits immediately, because we have to deal with the fiscal burden of an aging population.”

Ugly American: “But that doesn’t make sense. Even if you manage to save 80 billion euros — which you won’t, because the budget cuts will hurt your economy and reduce revenues — the interest payments on that much debt would be less than a tenth of a percent of your G.D.P. So the austerity you’re pursuing will threaten economic recovery while doing next to nothing to improve your long-run budget position.”

Only those who possesses an unwavering faith in paper money and its central bank stewards fail to see that people are losing faith in the current system and figure that maybe we ought to dial back on the money printing and borrowing because the only real good it’s done is to enrich those bankers who survived. The system is failing and people are realizing this – that’s why they’re buying gold and for a politician to come out and say this would only make the situation worse in the near-term. It’s really not that complicated.
Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/210886-money-faith-austerity-and-a-failed-system...
====
"An ineffectual attempt to sustain that which is unsustainable", is like continuing the Exponential Economic Fairy story, by trying to maintain the status quo, knowing that it must fail.
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perceptions_now
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Re: The Future/s?
Reply #21 - Jun 21st, 2010 at 6:07pm
 
Attracted to the Economic Dark Side


We are where we are. Growing debt. Costs of mandatory social programs is almost equal to government income – and growing rapidly.

...
Fiscal control cannot be gained without major revamping of these social programs.

...
The above graph courtesy of David A. Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist, Gluskin Sheff shows the percentage of the budget being consumed by mandatory expenditures.

Even if the budget could be balanced, the government would need to pull over $1 trillion per year or 10% out of the economy next year either through taxes or program cuts. This is a recipe for depression. It would initiate a reinforcing downward spiral – less economic activity, government spending reduced to match, economic activity down because of less government spending, another reduction in government spending, etc. And this is not the 1930's and 1940's where a huge potential could be unleashed to grow the economy out of debt.

We are in the no win scenario. Logic tells you that the economic future is grim based on the economic rules we know and understand.
Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/210875-attracted-to-the-economic-dark-side?sourc...
======
I will leave you to read the balance of the article, which is quite lengthy.
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Re: The Future/s?
Reply #22 - Jun 21st, 2010 at 10:12pm
 
Video including ex BOE panelist, Blanchflower Says U.K. Double Dip `Absolutely Certain'


http://noir.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Blanchflower%20Says%20U.K.%20Double...

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They are talking about the cost of "AUST-ERITY" and the likelihood of that pushing the UK economy into a Double dip Recession and worse.

There is a fair chance that is also what the "Abbott in the Monastery" and the ideologues in the Conservative Liberal Party, would also do, if elected?

Instead of taking easy decisions and reducing the real disposable income of the Public, governments need to reassess the entire structure of Government, of Services, of Revenue & Expenditure AND CHANGE, in a manner that will improve real & efficient government, without gutting the economy.

In OZ, I would start with deleting one entire arm of government, the Local Councils and then move onto the Tax system,  Quangoes and the many other non effective systems of government.
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Re: The Future/s?
Reply #23 - Jun 22nd, 2010 at 4:40pm
 
US could be broke in 15 years: economist


One of the world's most eminent experts on public finance says the west is headed for a fiscal crisis of the state, and the United States will be broke within 15 years unless it addresses its unsustainable budget deficit.

Professor Alan J. Auerbach from the University of California, Berkeley, who is director of the Burch Centre for Tax Policy and Public Finance, says western nations must raise taxes and cut spending to meet the huge financial burden of an ageing population.

Yet to do so now risks destabilising the global recovery.

Professor Auerbach is in Sydney for a conference hosted by the Australian School of Taxation and the Institute of Chartered Accountants.

He says G20 leaders face an unenviable task as they prepare to meet in Canada.

"They have a bit of a high wire act going on here. The problem is that the economies in the US and Europe are so weak as the result of the recession and there's a general view of economists that withdrawing stimulus could be dangerous," he said.

"On the other hand, the events in Greece and Spain and other countries have made forcefully evident the need for these countries, as well as countries like the United States and the G20, to make significant fiscal adjustments in the near future.

"The best of all possible worlds would be to maintain fiscal stimulus in the short run while simultaneously making credible policy actions now that will make fiscal adjustments occur in the not-too-distant future."

However, Professor Auerbach says those two actions are contradictory and impossible to implement simultaneously.

"That's impossible and that's the problem. On the one hand you have some people in Europe, for example in Germany, moving toward immediate fiscal consolidation," he explained.

"You have the United States not doing so and frankly, a country that takes only expansionary fiscal actions now and says it will do something about its long-term problems some time in the future, is not very credible in that claim.

He says one problem is the unpopularity of any US moves to reduce its deficit.

"The Obama Administration is bending to political reality in the United States which, at the moment, is unaccepting of the need for fiscal consolidation," he added.

He also describes as "pretty absurd" the position of the 'Tea Party' movement, which is strenuously resisting any potential tax increases.


Broke in 15 years

Professor Auerbach's research over recent years has highlighted how increasingly unsustainable the United States' public finances have become.

"The United States, at the Federal level, has raised a fairly stable share of GDP and taxation, typically around 18 or 19 per cent. On the other hand spending has been rising very steadily and it's projected to continue rising, to a large extent because of our expenditures on what we call entitlement programs - large government transfer programs for old-age pensions and for medical care," he explained.

"These costs are rising in the United States. They're rising in other developed countries as well, both because of the rising cost of medical care and the increasing share of the population that's elderly. And these costs will continue to grow even with measures that the US and other countries are undertaking to adjust these."

He says that raises a serious prospect that the world is headed for a fiscal crisis that extends beyond Greece, Spain and the other heavily indebted European nations.

"Something has to happen to alleviate that risk and may happen but it'll require a lot of courage from politicians," he warned.

"Under current projections, the United States debt to GDP ratio will reach an all time high within the next 15 years. That is it'll be higher than the debt as a share of national income that we left World War II with.

"Unlike, in 1946 though, when we didn't have very significant fiscal commitments and were able to start reducing our debt very rapidly, the US in 15 years will be in no position to stop accumulating debt.

"So we're heading toward an unsustainable level of debt in 15 years, capital markets presumably will look ahead and understand that and not let us get to the end of that 15 year period."

In the worst scenario, he says America could face the same problems that Greece is experiencing where capital markets basically go on strike and refuse to fund the debt.

"We do not have 15 years. The capital markets will react sooner. The US may have a little bit more time than another country in a similar situation as long as the dollar is the currency that people hold and that investors flee to when there's general turmoil in financial markets," he cautioned.

"The US will have a little bit more flexibility and time to respond but this time is not limitless and we will have to respond in a fairly short number of years."

He does not think the US is alone. When asked what other countries may be in a similar fiscal position, Professor Auerbach responded: "Virtually all the developed countries, certainly in Europe."
Link -
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/22/2933526.htm
============
The prof is right, but he is also wrong.

The USA & Global economy is heading for trouble, but it won't take 15 years to get here!
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Re: The Future/s?
Reply #24 - Jun 23rd, 2010 at 12:15pm
 
Niall Ferguson: U.S. Fiscal Crisis Will Likely Occur Within 2 Years


Interesting day Monday. I wanted to start with a video from the highly accomplished Niall Ferguson. This is a must watch so please take the time to watch it in its entirety:

Video link ..

My Take:

This was a great video on the reality of what we are facing as a nation. The best take-home point from this is where Niall brilliantly discusses the bond market and our rapidly increasing debt loads.

The perception of the bulls is that low rates and easy money will eventually get us out of this mess. What Niall counters with here is a mathematical reality check in regards to the sheer magnitude of the amount of debt we are issuing and the cost to service it. The USA's ability to service our Treasury debt is mathematically impossible if we continue to sell $120 billion in treasuries every other week.
As Niall describes, when the debt loads become so large, it only takes a small increase in rates to create a fiscal crisis because you become overwhelmed by the huge amount of debt issuances that you need to service. For example: Increasing interest rates by 2% on bonds with the overwhelming amount of debt we have today might be the equivalent of taking rates to 8-10% in the early 1980's when it comes to the percentage of GDP it will cost us to service the debt (pay interest on the debt).

The bond market will eventually call the Fed out by taking rates higher as they begin to realize that our GDP will simply not be large enough to service the debt.

Will the PIIGS and the rest of Europe get called out before us? Sure, but eventually we will end up in the same place; our situation is no better. We get a pass for now because we are still considered to be the safest haven left. Or as I like to say: The best of the worst!

[b]This is all unsustainable and I think the reality is beginning to set in that we cannot continue to spend like this. Anyone that has a job and pays bills understands that you cannot spend more than you bring in every month over a long period of time without going bankrupt.

The problem we have here is the political will is not there to make painful decisions we need to make in order to clean up our fiscal house. It's going to take a fiscal crisis similar to Greece in order to finally force the government to clean up its balance sheet..
[/b]

The fact that Niall predicts this will likely happen within 2 years is a pretty alarming statement.
The Bottom Line

We saw a nasty reversal in the markets Monday. I think the market realized by the end of the day that the Yuan devaluation was a big nothing-burger. The markets tried to pump the news and failed miserably.

Tuesday's action should be interesting. We have the G-20 coming up here soon and Germany seems to be pumping fiscal restraint, whereas we are still promoting throwing money out of helicopters. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Folks: The jig is about up. The Ponzi scheme is on its last legs. The borrowing path we have chosen is proving to be mathematically unsustainable. Greece went down via the same route. England and Japan are right behind them.

The question is now WHEN, not IF.


When accomplished people like Niall Ferguson are confident enough in their thesis to put time lines on the collapse, it's time to be afraid.
Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/211202-niall-ferguson-u-s-fiscal-crisis-will-lik...
============
As Niall says in the video, the USA is set to be paying around 28% of its annual outlays, in interest, by 2014.

And, huge deficits are currently being "planned" in the USA, for the years thru to 2020, at least
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Equitist
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Re: The Future/s?
Reply #25 - Jun 23rd, 2010 at 12:35pm
 

Clearly, the time has come to acknowledge that exponential polarisation of income, wealth, opportunity and power is what inevitably precipitates socio-economic and environmental disasters - and to reverse the dangerous trends of REGRESSIVE and inequitable: taxation and evasion/avoidance, WEALTHfare and sanctioning exclusive foreign tax havens at the expense of the majority...

Unfortunately, the restorative advantages of PROGRESSIVE taxation have been largely ignored by post-GFC budget reformists to date...

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Lamenting the shift in the Australian psyche, away from the egalitarian ideal of the fair-go - and the rise of short-sighted pollies, who worship the 'Growth Fairy' and seek to divide and conquer!
 
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Re: The Future?
Reply #26 - Jun 23rd, 2010 at 2:22pm
 
Maqqa wrote on Jun 20th, 2010 at 12:23pm:
I have disproved perception_now's Peak Oil presentation on numerous occasions

Its based on a theoretical debate of "If a tree fell in the forest and nobody is around to hear it then did it fall"

perception_now believes it has not fallen.

Believe in his lies if you wish - but the facts are inconclusive.

link me.....  Wink
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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BatteriesNotIncluded
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Re: The Future/s?
Reply #27 - Jun 23rd, 2010 at 2:25pm
 
NOTHING GROWS FOREVER

BASIC BIOLOGY!

LOOK AT THE POPULATION CURVE!!
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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perceptions_now
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Re: The Future?
Reply #28 - Jun 23rd, 2010 at 3:25pm
 
BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jun 23rd, 2010 at 2:22pm:
Maqqa wrote on Jun 20th, 2010 at 12:23pm:
I have disproved perception_now's Peak Oil presentation on numerous occasions

Its based on a theoretical debate of "If a tree fell in the forest and nobody is around to hear it then did it fall"

perception_now believes it has not fallen.

Believe in his lies if you wish - but the facts are inconclusive.

link me.....  Wink


Your wish, is my command, following is a link to a thread at Yahoo 7, which involved some "discussions" between myself & maqqa (alias slr2007mclaren) and a specific maqqa post, which I think says something about maqqa.
Peak Oil Debate for Dummies - slr edition -
http://au.messages.yahoo.com/news/politics/572790?p=1
++++++++++++++
By: slr2007mclaren
22/09/2009
4:23 pm

Yahoo! Profile:
 slr2007mclaren

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In my opinion, there will be correlating movements up & down, in the general Global economy & Oil Pricing, over the medium term, as Oil Production, Demand & Price find new levels, along with lower economic activity levels.
=====

this comment says nothing and means nothing PN
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Re: The Future/s?
Reply #29 - Jun 26th, 2010 at 11:19am
 
Addicted to oil … and to economic growth


While the massive oil spill catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico is demonstrative of our addiction to oil, it is also the latest example of modern capitalism’s addiction to economic growth.

For the last two centuries, Western economic theory has been based on the untenable proposition and requirement that economies must (and can) grow at substantial rates, indefinitely.

Especially for the last hundred years or so, abundant and inexpensive fossil fuels have allowed an unprecedented rate of economic growth that has brought Americans and much of the rest of the developed world a previously unimaginable, but unfortunately unsustainable materialistically-based standard of living.

By its very nature, an economic system based on constant and inexorable dynamic growth contains the seeds of its own demise. Indeed, capitalism as it is practiced today in America and Europe has become the proverbial anchor that will send us all to the bottom if we can’t find the thoughtfulness and courage to devise a new path forward.

Because of the system’s constant drive for unsustainable growth and desire for excessive profits, humanity has reached a most precarious “tipping” point.
Simply stated, it is greed and the belief that profits must be acquired at all costs that have led to the lack of sufficient and effective regulation and oversight that has allowed both the financial meltdown and tragic Gulf oil spill to occur.

Like the giant global Ponzi schemes that characterized the recent financial collapse, a capitalism that puts profits above everything else, and that is based on an unending supply of cheap energy, is doomed to fail. At some point the chickens will come home to roost. Unfortunately, that time has come.

Like it or not, we are faced with no alternative but to change our ways. With Peak Oil at hand, other finite natural resources being depleted at unprecedented rates, overpopulation, a devastating decrease in crucial biodiversity, and the ongoing fossil fuel-caused fouling of our planet, it is inescapable that now is the moment for a new and sustainable course to be charted.

Make no mistake, the changes that will be required are immense and will no doubt come with much pain and dislocation for many. But the future is not hopeless. It will, however, most certainly demand a paradigm shift away from profits-driven growth
to something some have called “green growth.

In addition, surviving in the future will mean more staying at home, working locally and utilizing local resources. There will be more locally grown food and farmers markets, more public transportation; and we’ll need to maximize efficiency and conservation. Everything we produce will need to be fully recyclable and bio-degradable. Food production, while becoming more local, will also need to become organic. Using chemical fertilizers and pesticides and factory farming is simply not healthy, and even more importantly, isn’t sustainable.

Perhaps just as important as changing the way we produce our energy and food, and transport ourselves around, are the needs to transform our politics and the way our corporations function. Corporations can no longer be allowed to possess human rights, but not be required to manifest human responsibility. If corporations are not required to add social justice and ecological responsibility to their existing shareholder mandate to provide profits, then the future for civilization will be dark indeed.

Finally, if any of the above necessary changes are to occur, our politics and democracy must be reborn in a way that reduces the corrupting role and influence of money in deciding the outcomes of elections. Only then will the public interest achieve its deserved exalted status above the private interests epitomized by the corporate greed and profits that so predominate today.

Some will say the above-described scenario for a sustainable and livable future is hopelessly naïve and utopian. On the contrary, what is truly utopian is to believe that we can continue to grow and use our finite resources indefinitely. Now that is the definition of naivety.


Link -
http://www.barnstablepatriot.com/home2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id...
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I agree with the majority of the above article!
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