Freediver,
In looking at some of your posts, both recent & some older, it seems that some of your concerns include GHG’s & over-population and one of your favoured solution factors, is taxation!

I agree that these two concerns are well placed, that WE need to address them, sooner rather than later and that taxation is one of the measured that will be used to influence desired outcomes!

However, these problems and others do not exist in isolation, nor is there a silver bullet that will remedy all problems.

For example, we (in Australia) could apply a “Green Tax” of sufficient size, which would reduce our GHG emissions substantially or even down to zero (over time).

But, if that resulted in the complete collapse of the current Energy market, which is currently derived from “carbon based Energy”, then what have we actually done, if the “alternative Energy Sources” are either not available to replace the existing sources, particularly in the short to medium term &/or the “alternative Energy Sources” are hugely more expensive?

In my opinion and that of others, there is a lengthy transition time required to smoothly move away from our existing “carbon based Energy” system, to another, even if such a replacement were to exist, which is debateable.

Highlighting this was the Hirsch Report, in the 2005, for the US Department of Energy, where he said the following:
•      “Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period.”
•      “Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked.”
•      “Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action leaves the world with a significant fuel deficit for more than two decades.”  “Late initiation of mitigation may result in severe consequences.”

Perhaps we could say that some of the actions taken over the last several years, due to oil price signals, would count for a year or two of preparation; essentially, though, we are set up for Dr. Hirsch’s “severe consequences” scenario.

What WE needed to do, was to plan for a balanced set of outcomes, including GHG’s, Energy transition, a reasonably stable Economic outcome and a Population slowly declining over time, but these had to be Global! WE did not do so!

For example, there is little point in the US, Europe & Australia finally achieving zero GHG emissions, after say 20 years, only to have China, India & a few others convert their massive populations into GHG emitting middle classes and have the total Global emissions continue to rise, perhaps bringing on Climate Change of massive proportions later this century.

It has proved to be a task of “Gordian Knott” proportions, to pull together all of the major players, into a workable action plan, involving all of the major factors and I suspect that the final solutions may well come too late and the remedies far too harsh, for most of the Global Public!    

Purely in terms of GHG’s & Tax, as I have said before, I suggest a mixture of the Carrot, Stick & mandatory GHG emission reductions. If Business, Government Depts & Individuals achieve set reductions, then they get the carrot (less tax); if they fail to achieve the target, then they get the Stick (more tax).

In terms of Energy, we may already be too late, as Oil HAS PEAKED and Coal & Gas will follow, in the not too distant future! Whilst WE may muddle thru, the changes involved for the longer term, must be Paradigm changing, as will be the Political issues.

Within 50-100 years, we may need to REPLACE PRACTICALLY EVERY CURRENT ENERGY SOURCE, with something new! That will be impossible, if we are to maintain a reason economy, unless the Global Population shrinks to much lower levels of perhaps around 2-3 Billion.

Is this my theory? No!
Are any of my other postings, my theory? No!
Is this posting & my other posts, simply observations of current & future scenarios? Yes!

What will become future fact, we will all find out and the next 5-10 years, will reveal a heck of a lot about future directions!

Quote:


Or, we could just look at the evidence we already have. No need to rely on your imagination when we have reality to guide us. Didn't you say you had some evidence that backed up your position?

This time is different?

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/215028-welcome-to-the-dreaded-japanese-l?source=...

The dip in US Employment IS & WILL BE, much greater & prolonged!

I expect that Q3 & Q4 of 2010 will see the Global Economy begin to Double Dip and with that, goes any chance of the US Employment stats improving, any time soon, which is very different to most past slowdowns/recessions!

Why This Summer, The Odds Favor a Declining Market

paramount reasons -
Housing
Jobs
Taxes
Debt

JOBS
If you are looking for good news here, look elsewhere. The “official” unemployment rate stands at a shade under 10%. If you are inclined to believe that, I have some jumbo Pacific Ocean shrimp raised in a rocky little cliffside cove in Nebraska to sell you. Even the administration’s own “fine print” level of unemployment, the broader “U6” measure, owns up to something more like 18%. And shadowstats.com, a great website devoted to truth-in-statistics, counts as unemployed those who no longer collect benefits or those who have despaired of ever finding a job, and reports it as closer to 22%



BONUS ROUND: DEBT

In my article on MINNOWs and CO-MINNOWs, states that are walking bankruptcies and whose debt should be avoided (here) we must now add another, even bigger debtor: the USA. As well as a number of other sovereign nations around the world.

As California, New York, Illinois, et al beg for money from the feds to bail them out, there will be a quid pro quo – some sort of plan to pay it back. If you think this won’t involve layoffs, yes, even of public sector workers, you are a candidate to be a partner in that Nebraska ocean shrimp farm.



And how long, for that matter, will the rest of the world run to US Treasuries, rather than Canadian Treasuries or gold or Chinese Yuan or whatever, every time there is a hint of danger in the world. The question is not whether the US will be forced to pay more on its Treasury obligations, but when.
Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/215068-why-this-summer-the-odds-favor-a-declinin...
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Lies, damned lies & Government stats! Shadow stats is a respected check on US government stats.

Whilst I think the Debt map stats may be a little old & perhaps not entirely accurate, it does relate that OZ is relatively better placed than many other countries, when it comes to Debt.

That said, Debt does need to be kept in check, but not at the expense of decimating the Publics NET DISPOSAL INCOME!

Credit Crunch 2010

It seems like almost everyone is using the words "double dip" these days.

It is almost as if it was already a foregone conclusion.

But the truth is that this would have just been one long economic decline if the U.S. government (and many of the other governments around the globe) had not pumped so much "stimulus" into their economies over the past several years.

Now that governments around the world are pulling back and are beginning to implement austerity measures, the "sugar rush" of the stimulus money is wearing off and the original economic decline is resuming.

All that the trillions in "stimulus" did was to give the world economy a temporary boost and get us into a whole lot more debt.

The truth is that the United States is in the early stages of a truly historic financial implosion.

Without direct intervention from the U.S. government, the U.S. financial system is headed for a world of hurt.

The truth is that the credit markets are freezing up, and without efficiently operating credit markets, the economic system we have constructed simply will not work.
Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/215105-credit-crunch-2010?source=email
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the following article can also be accessed via the above article & both are worth a read!

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Fed's volte face sends the dollar tumbling

Mr Bloom said a deep change is under way in investor psychology as funds and central banks respond to the blizzard of shocking US data and again focus on the fragility of an economy where public debt is surging towards 100pc of GDP, not helped by the malaise enveloping the Obama White House. "The Europeans have aired their dirty debt in public and taken some measures to address it, whilst the US has not," he said.

The Fed minutes warned of "significant downside risks" and a possible slide into deflation, an admission that zero interest rates, $1.75 trillion of QE, and a fiscal deficit above 10pc of GDP have so far failed to lift the economy out of a structural slump.

"The Committee would need to consider whether further policy stimulus might become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably," it said. The economy might not regain its "longer-run path" until 2016.

The signs of a deep and sudden slowdown in the US are becoming ever clearer as the "sugar rush" from the Obama fiscal stimulus wears off and the inventory boost fades. California, Illinois and other states are cutting spending, tightening US fiscal policy by 0.8pc of GDP.

Thursday's plunge in the Philadelphia Fed's July index of new manufacturing orders to –4.3 suggests that the economy may have buckled abruptly, as it did in mid-2008. The Economic Cycle Research Institute's ECRI leading indicator has tumbled, reaching –8.3pc last week. This points to a sharp slowdown or recession within three months.

The US workforce has shrunk by a 1m over the past two months as discouraged jobless give up the hunt. Retail sales have fallen for the past two months. New homes sales crashed to 300,000 in May after tax credits ran out, the lowest since records began in 1963. Mortgage applications have fallen by 42pc to 13-year low since April. Paul Dales at Capital Economics said the "shadow inventory" of unsold properties has risen to 7.8m. "The double dip in housing has begun," he said.
Link -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/7893238/Feds-volte-face-sends-the-do...
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Whilst I regrettably agree with much of their assessments, I can not see that any form of possible direct intervention or levers available to & from the U.S. government, which would achieve a return to the old status quo, in short there is no Hollywood ending!

freediver wrote on Jul 21^st, 2010 at 6:14pm:


No!

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Quote:


1) Well, at this point, the vast majority of Economists, did not predict any GFC, let alone one which is 2nd only (so far) to the Great Depression, so I will stay with my views of what is happening, why & when! And, NO, it is not simple!

2) Because it is, complicated!