Quote:perceptions-now
And what evidence is that?
Quote:freediver
Do we really need to go over this again? One recent example is a comaprison of China and India. There are also plenty of examples of 'good times' following plagues and wars in Europe that killed off a big chunk of the population.
Quote:perceptions-now
Let's face reality, the only evidence, fact &/or opinion that is of interest to you, are the ones that suit your purpose/s, whatever that may be!
Quote:freediver
Can you explain then why I keep asking you for evidence that fits your theory? You did say you have some evidence didn't you?
In looking at some of your posts, both recent & some older, it seems that some of your concerns include GHG’s & over-population and one of your favoured solution factors, is taxation!
I agree that these two concerns are well placed, that WE need to address them, sooner rather than later and that taxation is one of the measured that will be used to influence desired outcomes!
However, these problems and others do not exist in isolation, nor is there a silver bullet that will remedy all problems.
For example, we (in Australia) could apply a “Green Tax” of sufficient size, which would reduce our GHG emissions substantially or even down to zero (over time).
But, if that resulted in the complete collapse of the current Energy market, which is currently derived from “carbon based Energy”, then what have we actually done, if the “alternative Energy Sources” are either not available to replace the existing sources, particularly in the short to medium term &/or the “alternative Energy Sources” are hugely more expensive?
In my opinion and that of others, there is a lengthy transition time required to smoothly move away from our existing “carbon based Energy” system, to another, even if such a replacement were to exist, which is debateable.
Highlighting this was the Hirsch Report, in the 2005, for the US Department of Energy, where he said the following:
• “Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period.”
• “Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked.”
• “Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action leaves the world with a significant fuel deficit for more than two decades.” “Late initiation of mitigation may result in severe consequences.”
Perhaps we could say that some of the actions taken over the last several years, due to oil price signals, would count for a year or two of preparation; essentially, though, we are set up for Dr. Hirsch’s “severe consequences” scenario.
What WE needed to do, was to plan for a balanced set of outcomes, including GHG’s, Energy transition, a reasonably stable Economic outcome and a Population slowly declining over time, but these had to be Global! WE did not do so!
For example, there is little point in the US, Europe & Australia finally achieving zero GHG emissions, after say 20 years, only to have China, India & a few others convert their massive populations into GHG emitting middle classes and have the total Global emissions continue to rise, perhaps bringing on Climate Change of massive proportions later this century.
It has proved to be a task of “Gordian Knott” proportions, to pull together all of the major players, into a workable action plan, involving all of the major factors and I suspect that the final solutions may well come too late and the remedies far too harsh, for most of the Global Public!
Purely in terms of GHG’s & Tax, as I have said before, I suggest a mixture of the Carrot, Stick & mandatory GHG emission reductions. If Business, Government Depts & Individuals achieve set reductions, then they get the carrot (less tax); if they fail to achieve the target, then they get the Stick (more tax).
In terms of Energy, we may already be too late, as Oil HAS PEAKED and Coal & Gas will follow, in the not too distant future! Whilst WE may muddle thru, the changes involved for the longer term, must be Paradigm changing, as will be the Political issues.
Within 50-100 years, we may need to REPLACE PRACTICALLY EVERY CURRENT ENERGY SOURCE, with something new! That will be impossible, if we are to maintain a reason economy, unless the Global Population shrinks to much lower levels of perhaps around 2-3 Billion.
Is this my theory? No!
Are any of my other postings, my theory? No!
Is this posting & my other posts, simply observations of current & future scenarios? Yes!
What will become future fact, we will all find out and the next 5-10 years, will reveal a heck of a lot about future directions!
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The onus on evidence seems to vary?
And, your idea of evidence and mine seem a little different?
Then, there is a question of what is evidence, what is opinion & what can be verified, particularly when many of the current circumstances of recent & current events, are unprecedented.
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