Amadd wrote on Sep 27^th, 2010 at 6:35pm:

That's what economics is, rationing out scarce resources. If oil was abundant we wouldn't have to economise it, we could give it away. Our economy has always relied on the scarcity of oil.

BobH wrote on Sep 27^th, 2010 at 2:00pm:


If that were the case, then we should now be swimming in a sea of alternative Energy supplies, because in 8 years Oil went from $10 a barrel to $147 a barrel. I see no such movement towards the alternative sources and certainly not on the level of urgency that is needed.

Peak Coal: Profit from the Peaks

Now I realize that those who aren't keen to the idea of peak oil aren't about to embrace the notion of peak coal with open arms...

"After the peak oil garbage, you want us to believe in peak coal, Ian? What gives?

According to USGS studies, we have 250 years of it left. Peak coal is a fallacy. We're not running out of coal. Stop the fear mongering."
— James T.

That 250-year supply report from the USGS was compiled in the 1970s. And, as I'm sure even James can attest to, a lot has changed since then...

Updated USGS studies find that we may only have 100 years of coal left — a startling drop from 250 years.

Plus, what James doesn't understand is that the easiest and most profitable coal reserves are mined first. New technology can help, but sooner or later, you reach the point when the energy needed to extract coal is so great that it's no longer profitable.

And at the rate that we're burning through coal, it's not surprising that we're approaching that point. About half of the electricity in the United States is generated by burning coal.

So exactly how much do we have left?

Back in 1907, the USGS first said we had three trillion tons, or enough for 5,000 years. By the 1950s, we had 500 billion tons. By 2007, we have 250 years remaining.

Nowadays, experts argue there's far less. David Rutledge from the California Institute of Technology said in 2009 that he believes we have half that amount, which would work out to 120 years' worth.

And more than likely, the actual amount is less than Rutledge's best guess.

Peak coal by 2011?
Yep, there are new studies that existing coal mines will reach peak production as early as 2011, with peak production levels cut in half shortly thereafter.

But 2020 is more likely in my opinion, based on reserve to production ratios.

Tadeuaz W. Patzek and Gregory D. Croft, authors of a recent coal study published in the scientific journal Energy, find that coal production will decline after 2011. They believe mines won't be able to reverse that trend.

"It's unlikely that future mines will reverse the trend predicted in this scenario," according to the authors.

"The most important conclusion of this paper is that peak of global coal production from existing coalfields is imminent..."

That runs counter to current reserve estimates, which those researchers call overblown and based on data that's dated or unreliable, including recent studies from the World Coal Institute and the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The World Coal Institute finds that the use of coal will rise 60% over the next 20 years, and that coal will last us 119 years. The U.S. Energy Information Administration finds that coal consumption will grow 50% by 2035.

But Patzek doesn't believe it. He maintains the world will finish off the easy-to-reach coal of higher quality, and what remains will often be lower quality stuff that's much harder to dig up and deliver.
(Sound familiar?)

Global peak coal findings
South Africa may have already reached peak production, according to research.

The chairman of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO), Jeremy Wakeford:

It is commonly believed that South Africa has abundant coal reserves which will last 200 years or more. But recent research [from] three scientific journals suggests that usable reserves are much smaller than previously thought, and that annual production could reach a peak and begin to decline within a decade — or might even have peaked already.

Richard Heinberg, author of Blackout, explains in his book that coal figures out of the United States are misleading because the quality of the coal is uneven.

If production continues to increase in volume, the coal will decrease in energy value.

Worse, researchers are already finding exhaustion of high quality coal in Pennsylvania... and they expect for production in West Virginia to soon fall off.

In China, reserves were estimated to contain 200 billion tons in 1930. That has since been cut to 114.5 billion tons by 1992. According to Heinberg, the problem is that China suffers from weak productivity, thanks to disastrous working conditions.

The bottom line here is we are nearing peak coal, and must find other sources of energy to replace it.
Link -
http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/peak-coal-theory/1284

Peak Oil & The Four Futures – Tim Hudson

Part 1 of 2


Part 2 of 2


What will be our future after peak oil? How will our jobs, lives, and the overall economy be impacted? In this 20 minute presentation, expert peak oil educator Tim Hudson defines the four futures after peak oil, and explains how to create a personal post peak oil profile by assigning probabilities to the four scenarios. Personal peak oil profiles are useful in both assessing one’s own current expectations for the future as well as better understanding the beliefs and expectations of others. Tim Hudson created this talk drawing from many sources including peak oil books written by Richard Heinberg.
Link -
http://www.wallstreetstocks.net/peak-oil-the-four-futures-tim-hudson-part-1-of-2...
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Not a patch on Lord Monckton as a presenter/speaker, but the are a few areas of interest.

There was a point in time, when Alaskan Oil was going to be the great saviour of US Oil production.



And, all that Alaska meant was 2,000 barrels per day at its Peak of Production, which has now dropped to just above 600 bpd.

All this compared to a US Oil Consumption of 20 Million barrels per day!

Makes you wonder what the new saviours will actually produce?

The above graph shows an obvious nessecity to invade other nations for oil.

Where does the necessity for Iraqi freedom come in?

Peak Oil Experts Fear Big New U.S. Job Losses, Economic Downturn

Former CIBC chief economist Jeff Rubin predicted oil production declines ranging soon from 2 to 6% annually. This, he said, will double or triple oil prices on the market, creating economic slow-downs and job losses beyond those of the recent recession. His Toronto Globe and Mail column last week on this was entitled, “We have run out of oil we can afford to burn‎.”

Regarding issues more specific to oil production, several speakers cited a U.S. Department of Defense study that predicts worldwide peak oil in 2015.

Thus, the only federal politician on the speaker program was U.S. Rep. Roscoe Bartlett of a Maryland, the second-ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee.  A member also of the congressional Peak Oil Caucus, Dr. Bartlett is a former professor and scientist.

“Just about everyone understands peak oil now, from major oil companies to academics to the environmental community,” Baldauf said. “It’s an endowment of energy that has taken hundreds of millions of years to accumulate and we’ve ripped through about half of it in 150 years.”

Some predicted gas lines similar to those in the 1970s after OPEC embargoes but of much longer duration, along with further U.S. job losses as companies reduced production. Predictions for the rest of the world included warnings that emerging economies in China and India would use their funding for a larger share of the available fuel, thereby ramping up gas-station prices in the U.S. at least to current world levels of $7 a gallon and higher, and that have-not Third World nations would face desperate food-production and other calamities.
Link -
http://ctwatchdog.com/2010/10/12/peak-oil-experts-fear-big-new-u-s-job-losses-ec...
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It is of interest that the only Politician attending this ASPO Conference was a Republican!

Republicans as a rule, do not believe in things such as Peak Oil & Climate Change, but Bartlett is a former Professor & Scientist, so perhaps he understands the issues a little more than the standard Conservative Republican.