Australian Politics Forum - The Peak Energy Debate

perceptions_now

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Re: The Peak Oil Debate
Reply #15 - Jun 21^st, 2010 at 7:43pm

Oil and gas production in Russia to fall after 2011 - LUKoil head

Oil and gas production in Russia will start declining gradually after 2011 if the government does not change laws to stimulate geological exploration, LUKoil head Vagit Alekperov said on Wednesday.

"The production will reach its peak in 2010-2011, and then it will face a gradual slowdown caused by a total absence of incentives in that sphere," Alekperov told a meeting of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs.

He said that investment in geological exploration already slumped 65 percent in 2010 as newly-discovered fields are signed away to the state, not to a licence holder, which had discovered it, discouraging geological exploration on new fields.

Another stumbling block was the fact that expenses on new deposits discovery were only reimbursed if exploration proved successful, he said.
Link -
http://peakoil.com/production/oil-and-gas-production-in-russia-to-fall-after-201...
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From Russia, with Love, bugger a 40% Super profits tax, we'll just have it all!

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perceptions_now

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Re: The Peak Oil Debate
Reply #16 - Jun 22^nd, 2010 at 1:51pm

Our Dependency on Foreign Oil

Worth a re-run

Jon Stewart's eight minute piece illustrating the populist talking point that is U.S. Presidents vowing to reduce our dependence on foreign oil is a must watch. Click and watch and laugh at the absurdity of the ceaseless rhetoric, which continued this week.
As Stewart says, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me eight times - am I a smacking idiot?"

embedded video:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6625
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A definate, must watch!

This guy is good, funny & makes the points, well!

Btw, the "The Oil Drum" site, is good for a variety of "Energy related perspectives".

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« Last Edit: Jun 22^nd, 2010 at 4:59pm by perceptions_now »

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muso

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Re: The Peak Oil Debate
Reply #17 - Jun 22^nd, 2010 at 3:55pm

Quote:

Tic Tic Tic .....We’re not out of oil … yet

BUT are we running out of time to prepare for Peak Oil Angry

http://www.brushtail.com.au/july_04_on/oil_running_out_of_time.html

Peak Oil world production has already happened - in 2003. It has been suggested that the rising oil price prior to the Global Financial Crisis was a major causal factor for the GFC. The Sub Prime Mortgage holders in the US generally lived further from work than the average person because that was the only way they could get reasonably priced homes. Eventually something had to give - the rising price of fuel resulted in widespread loan defaults because they could no longer afford to pay their mortgages.

I'll see if I can find the original editorial on it.

Of course, the GFC has resulted in a lower demand for oil, which has given exploration some time to catch up with demand, so there might be another peak oil episode.

I don't doubt that there were other factors that came into play about 2003 (including the invasion of Iraq) which helped reduce production, but it hasn't recovered to 2003 levels yet.

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perceptions_now

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Re: The Peak Oil Debate
Reply #18 - Jun 22^nd, 2010 at 5:16pm

muso wrote on Jun 22^nd, 2010 at 3:55pm:

Quote:

Tic Tic Tic .....We’re not out of oil … yet

BUT are we running out of time to prepare for Peak Oil Angry

http://www.brushtail.com.au/july_04_on/oil_running_out_of_time.html

Peak Oil world production has already happened - in 2003. It has been suggested that the rising oil price prior to the Global Financial Crisis was a major causal factor for the GFC. The Sub Prime Mortgage holders in the US generally lived further from work than the average person because that was the only way they could get reasonably priced homes. Eventually something had to give - the rising price of fuel resulted in widespread loan defaults because they could no longer afford to pay their mortgages.

I'll see if I can find the original editorial on it.

Of course, the GFC has resulted in a lower demand for oil, which has given exploration some time to catch up with demand, so there might be another peak oil episode.

I don't doubt that there were other factors that came into play about 2003 (including the invasion of Iraq) which helped reduce production, but it hasn't recovered to 2003 levels yet.

Muso,
You may find the following site of interest.

It's "the official" US Energy Information Administration site and it has a breakdown, by Country, by Region & Global. It also provides details going back to 1980.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=53&aid=1&cid...

You may like to have a look at the global figures up to & after 2005.

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gizmo_2655 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16010 South West NSW Gender:	Re: The Peak Oil Debate Reply #19 - Jun 22^nd, 2010 at 6:37pm Oh, so Peak Oil...we're running out of oil again???? This will be the 5th time in my life time that we've run out of oil.... Yawn...
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perceptions_now

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Re: The Peak Oil Debate
Reply #20 - Jun 22^nd, 2010 at 6:58pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jun 22^nd, 2010 at 6:37pm:

Oh, so Peak Oil...we're running out of oil again????

This will be the 5th time in my life time that we've run out of oil....

Yawn...

So, is it possible then , that Oil Production Growth is an exception to the rule, along with Population Growth?

In fact, are all human needs, an exception to the rule?

Which rule, I hear you say?

The Exponential Growth Rule, which says that "Exponential Growth, on a finite planet, is impossible!"

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gizmo_2655

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Re: The Peak Oil Debate
Reply #21 - Jun 22^nd, 2010 at 10:25pm

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 22^nd, 2010 at 6:58pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jun 22^nd, 2010 at 6:37pm:

Oh, so Peak Oil...we're running out of oil again????

This will be the 5th time in my life time that we've run out of oil....

Yawn...

So, is it possible then , that Oil Production Growth is an exception to the rule, along with Population Growth?

In fact, are all human needs, an exception to the rule?

Which rule, I hear you say?

The Exponential Growth Rule, which says that "Exponential Growth, on a finite planet, is impossible!"

Well considering we had an 'Oil Crisis' (Peak Oil ...'We're running out of Oil') in 1973, 1979, 1980-1986, 1990 and 2000-2003....

Forgive me for being cynical about the 'current' Peak Oil Crisis.......

After 37 years of hearing..."OH MY GOD, We're almost of OIL" it is starting to feel a bit like 'The Boy Who Cried WOLF!!!'....

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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gizmo_2655

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Re: The Peak Oil Debate
Reply #22 - Jun 22^nd, 2010 at 10:31pm

After almost 4 decades of warnings about 'We'll run out of Oil, next month/next year/in 5 years/in 10 years/by the turn of the century'....And watching the prices INCREASE each and every time a warning sounds....
It's starting to look like the 'OIL Crisis/Peak Oil' thing is fabricated by the oil prducing nations and/or the oil companies as an excuse to raise the $ per barrel rate......

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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perceptions_now

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Re: The Peak Oil Debate
Reply #23 - Jun 23^rd, 2010 at 4:08pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jun 22^nd, 2010 at 10:31pm:

After almost 4 decades of warnings about 'We'll run out of Oil, next month/next year/in 5 years/in 10 years/by the turn of the century'....And watching the prices INCREASE each and every time a warning sounds....
It's starting to look like the 'OIL Crisis/Peak Oil' thing is fabricated by the oil prducing nations and/or the oil companies as an excuse to raise the $ per barrel rate......

The following chart, may assist, with where we have come from and where we are going.

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gizmo_2655

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Re: The Peak Oil Debate
Reply #24 - Jun 23^rd, 2010 at 4:43pm

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2010 at 4:08pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jun 22^nd, 2010 at 10:31pm:

After almost 4 decades of warnings about 'We'll run out of Oil, next month/next year/in 5 years/in 10 years/by the turn of the century'....And watching the prices INCREASE each and every time a warning sounds....
It's starting to look like the 'OIL Crisis/Peak Oil' thing is fabricated by the oil prducing nations and/or the oil companies as an excuse to raise the $ per barrel rate......

The following chart, may assist, with where we have come from and where we are going.

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/ccst20090515.png

No perceptions, it doesn't help....mostly because it's a graph from a website that believes in the whole 'Peak Oil' story.

In the 1970's, we were told that we only had 6-12 months supply of oil left.....what happened?..Geologists went out and found more oil fields...result, we were no longer 'running' out of oil...

The 2003 peak oil panic was caused by the OPEC nations reducing the amount of oil pumped out of the wells...and of course, when a commidity becomes 'rare', the price goes up....under the 'laws' of Supply and Demand..
Does that mean that the crude oil is running out?...NO not neccessarily....it just means the producers want to be paid more per barrel for the oil....

When I was growing up, there were ads on the TV every week, telling us how ESSO( I think, or it might have been Mobil) were finding and 'capping' an oil well per WEEK in Bass Strait and on the North-West Shelf of Western Australia....In order to 'secure Australia's Oil independance in the Future'....

So 2 wells per week equals 112 wells per year, and the adds ran for 5 or 10 years...

What does that mean?? It means the ONE company found between 560 and 1120 oil wells, just in Australia.....

Does THAT sound like we're short of oil?????

A normal oil well has an average life span of 20 years (or 22.5 years according to the Oildrum.com)...so 560x20 years...equals 11200 years worth of oil( providing we use each well until it runs out, then open the next one...which probably won't happen)...so lets have 10 wells running at a time.....11200 divided by 10 = 1120 years....

Have we 'Peaked' in our oil production in Australia?????

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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perceptions_now

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Re: The Peak Oil Debate
Reply #25 - Jun 23^rd, 2010 at 5:58pm

Quote:

Gizmo
In the 1970's, we were told that we only had 6-12 months supply of oil left.....what happened?..Geologists went out and found more oil fields...result, we were no longer 'running' out of oil...

That's not quite right, as the following graph shows, Oil discovery actually Peaked around 1964.

Quote:

Gizmo
The 2003 peak oil panic was caused by the OPEC nations reducing the amount of oil pumped out of the wells

That's not quite rught either, you may like to have a look at the following USA Energy Information Administration site (EIA), which has "official figures on various issues, including Production

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=53&aid=1&cid...

Quote:

Gizmo
Does that mean that the crude oil is running out?

No, it doesn't mean that, at least not now. But, the mere perception of Demand outstripping Supply is & was enought to send the Oil Price into orbit @ $147 P/barrel. And, the additional impost acted like a drag on the Global economy and was enough to slow the Global economy, in concert with other issues and send the share markets crashing.

That said, if the Population Growth does not come back down to earth, so to speak, then Peak Oil will convert into NO Oil, very quickly!

Btw, you may also be "interested in the following graph of the Mexican Cantarell Field Production, which is now in rapid decline. After being one of the Worlds more recent discoveries, these fields are headed for oblivion, after the USA has sucked them dry.

Mexico has been the third largest supplier of Oil to the US, after Saudi Arabia & Canada, so the USA will now on the lookout for another major supplier? Iran?

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gizmo_2655

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Re: The Peak Oil Debate
Reply #26 - Jun 23^rd, 2010 at 6:13pm

Perceptions, you don't seem to be getting my point.....

IF the whole 'Peak Oil' concept is a 'con' or 'excuse' involving price fixing.....then WHY would any of the graphs, lists or any other 'information' be reliable???

OPEC, the various Oil companies, AND the USA Energy Information Administration site (EIA), would be 'biased'.....

And before you say it....YES the various Governments would be quite happy to support 'artificially inflated prices'...because inflated prices means inflated TAXES...

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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perceptions_now

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Re: The Peak Oil Debate
Reply #27 - Jun 23^rd, 2010 at 7:46pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2010 at 6:13pm:

Perceptions, you don't seem to be getting my point.....

IF the whole 'Peak Oil' concept is a 'con' or 'excuse' involving price fixing.....then WHY would any of the graphs, lists or any other 'information' be reliable???

OPEC, the various Oil companies, AND the USA Energy Information Administration site (EIA), would be 'biased'.....

And before you say it....YES the various Governments would be quite happy to support 'artificially inflated prices'...because inflated prices means inflated TAXES...

Oh, I think I get where your coming from, I just don't agree that the facts fit with your conspiracy theory!

I agree there are certainly some smoke & mirrors games being played, but they are to try to continue the status quo, in Politics, Economics & in big Business!

If I am correct, we will not see Oil Production recover and then grow, this side of the 2nd coming and along with the decline in Oil Production, will go the decline of the Global Economy, it will go down the toilet.

If you are correct, then Governments & Big Business (Oil company's), will continue to pilage us, for all they can, for as long as they can.

Wait on, perhaps your conspiracy sounds like a better option?

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freediver Gold Member Offline www.ozpolitic.com Posts: 49396 At my desk.	Re: The Peak Oil Debate Reply #28 - Jun 23^rd, 2010 at 8:17pm OPEC is involved in price fixing. That is the whole point of OPEC. They would be arrested if they did that within Australia. However, peak oil is real and is nothing to do with OPEC. Getting yourself all confused about whether it is five peaks or one kind of misses the point.
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perceptions_now

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Re: The Peak Oil Debate
Reply #29 - Jun 23^rd, 2010 at 8:22pm

freediver wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2010 at 8:17pm:

OPEC is involved in price fixing. That is the whole point of OPEC. They would be arrested if they did that within Australia.

However, peak oil is real and is nothing to do with OPEC. Getting yourself all confused about whether it is five peaks or one kind of misses the point.

I don't disagree! OPEC or at least certain countries within OPEC are certainly making hay whilst the sun is shining, because when the music stops, their decline starts!

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