Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jun 5^th, 2015 at 3:36pm:


Well Pansi, there are a "few" things to consider -




Timing can be a difficult thing, But the basic factors do strongly suggest what the end result will be!

Wall Street falls as Greece crisis unresolved; energy shares dip

U.S. stocks fell on Friday as Greek debt talks hit a stalemate and as concern over how soon the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates kept investors cautious.

Energy shares dropped as oil prices fell for a second straight day.

"It's the Greek situation again, and that's been played out on a day-to-day basis, where you had a huge rally followed by a decline, predicated on whether they are coming closer or moving further from a resolution over this situation," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 140.53 points, or 0.78 percent, to 17,898.84, the S&P 500 .SPX lost 14.75 points, or 0.7 percent, to 2,094.11 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 31.41 points, or 0.62 percent, to 5,051.10.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/13/us-markets-stocks-idUSKBN0OS1842015061...
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So much for the articles I've seen recently, about the Greek situation not having any likely downside on Share Markets!

cods wrote on Jun 14^th, 2015 at 12:28am:


Well Cods, I don't know if that was the case, but it wouldn't surprise me!

That said, I now trust no one and I check things out myself, to see if it makes sense! And, in that respect, as the saying goes "if it looks too good to be true, then it probably isn't"!

It's a bit like being a follower of a Political Party (any Political Party), as much of the time their statements are half truths or simple lies and much of what they say is too good to be true and probably isn't"

A short catch up, after a couple of days with the bugs!



Summary
    This week provides a potent collision of two key market factors which could create the perfect storm for stocks.
    The Federal Open Market Committee meeting may not result in a rate hike, but the FOMC economic projections and Janet Yellen's press conference are likely to show near-term hikes coming.
    Greece and its creditors are pushing the limits of investor patience and time is running out with all signs pointing to disaster. This week offers yet another opportunity for disappointment.
    The combination of Greece and the Fed both coming to a head may be too much for investors to handle this week, so prepare for extreme conditions.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3260465-a-perfect-storm-forming-against-stocks?i...
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Summary

    Europe and Greece sound very familiar to investors.
    Are stocks set to tank again as they did in July 2011?
    Will the next 15 years look like the last 15 years for stocks and bonds?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3260355-are-stocks-set-up-for-a-2011-like-plunge...
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Summary
    Factory activity in China is slowing.
    Moreover, consumer spending is similarly on the decline.
    As China's economy continues to face downward momentum, investor sentiment could soon wane, weighing on its equity market.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3259235-the-chinese-economy-continues-to-slow?if...
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Summary
    China A shares have gone parabolic as new retail traders pile in.
    Multiple Chinese stocks have serious regulatory and accounting questions.
    US sentiment as measured by AAII is not what it seems.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3258965-get-out-of-china-a-shares-and-anything-c...
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Summary
    According to the McKinsey Global Institute, China's debt has reached to 282% of its GDP, up from 2007 when it was at 158% of GDP.
    Chinese data is contradicting one another. For example, increasing the money supply and services as a percentage of GDP should lead to inflation, instead it is tamed.
    The growth in Chinese banking assets has not only surpassed the U.S. (back in 2009-10), it is now $13 trillion bigger.
    Despite the debt increase, China's cost of borrowing remains stable when measured against its 10-year government bonds and borrowing costs.
    However, symptoms like bubbles in its stock market is a step back from rebalancing its economy and the continuation of its old growth model.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3259855-the-riddle-behind-chinas-debt-issue?ifp=...
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Summary
    Talks on ending a deadlock between Greece and its international creditors broke up in failure on Sunday, with European leaders venting their frustration as Athens stumbled closer toward default.
    Both sides are playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship, one that will weigh heavily on global markets unless a deal is struck fast.
    In the end, I think creditors will bite the bitter bullet and offer Greece additional debt relief.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3259245-who-will-blink-first?ifp=0
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Summary
    It is very rare for such a large number of indicators to hit historic highs concurrently.
    This reinforces our opinion that the market is at an excessively lofty level. Investors are far too bullish.
    We firmly believe that the market is currently highly vulnerable to a significant correction (10-20%)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3263615-market-indicators-hit-historic-highs?ifp...
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Summary
    The future of China and Germany's bubbles.
    The reasons behind all this turbulence.
    How this correlates with what happened in the early 2000s.

As I've explained many times, starting last year, Germany has the worst demographic trends of any country in the world lasting through 2022. It's even worse than Japan's demographic cliff in the 1990s!
But if Germany looks bad, there's nothing short of "terrible" to say about China! China's stock market makes Germany's late-stage bubble look pathetic.


A 48% late-stage bubble in Germany unwarranted by its demographics… 159% in China despite its weakening economy.
Don't dally. Protect yourself NOW!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3262855-end-of-the-line-china-and-germany-look-r...

A quick glance across global equity markets reveals that Japan has been among the strongest performing countries recently. The Nikkei 225 advanced roughly 40% in the 12 months through May, beating returns of U.S. and global indices such as the S&P 500 Total Return Index and MSCI All Country World by sizeable margins. The robust ascent has occurred against a backdrop of persistently weak economic growth.
While Japanese gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a 3.9% annualized pace during the first quarter, accelerating relative to 1.2% growth at the end of last year, a deeper look into what drove the latest pickup raises some questions about its sustainability.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Three Arrows plan - a combination of stimulus efforts involving fiscal and monetary programs as well as reforms designed to jolt the Japanese economy onto a self-sustaining path of healthy growth - is underway. Pundits were quick to argue that Abe’s plan is bearing fruit with the first quarter GDP growth news largely exceeding consensus forecasts. The market seemed to agree, as the Nikkei 225 closed at its highest level in 15 years the day preliminary GDP figures were released in late May.

Significantly, however, rising inventories were responsible for a meaningful portion of first quarter growth. Household consumption remained weak, rising only 0.4% after a similar advance the prior quarter.
Consumption is the main driver of the Japanese economy, so it’s imperative that policy efforts are geared toward igniting consumer activity.

Overall, we continue to believe that the Three Arrows initiative will be seen and felt mostly in Japanese financial markets, as opposed to the economy.

In addition to the Bank of Japan’s easy-money policies propelling the market higher, the $1.1 trillion Government Investment Pension Fund’s reallocation toward equities, and the recent announcement that three smaller Japanese public pension funds controlling a combined $249 billion will follow suit, all represent impactful near-term factors that are likely supporting stock prices.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3266955-is-japans-economic-recovery-real-or-imag...
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The Japanese Realities are -
1) Japan has a Debt to GDP ratio of around 250% and rising!
2) The Japanese Economy is based largely on Japanese Consumption, which is based on Japanese Population Growth, but that Reality is highlighted by the following charts -


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan

So, there is no Real Recovery in Japan & their Economy is set to Decline much further, as Demographic Realities take effect, over coming decades!

Summary
    It's crunch time for Greece and the eurozone as we know it. Both sides are digging in ahead of crucial talks this Thursday.
    Some think the ECB will remove its emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to Greek banks, triggering a default. Others think Syriza will opt for the 'Icelandic option' and default.
    One thing is for sure, the stakes are high for Greece, Europe, the global economy and financial system. Policy blunders can trigger another global disaster.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3265295-the-endgame-for-greece-and-europe?ifp=0
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Death By Demographics: Jobs Growth Projected Down Through 2039

Summary
    The trend in job growth figures.
    What we can expect to see in terms of future job growth in our economy.
    How this will impact our economy in the coming months.

Let's compare the U.S. to Germany and Japan to get an idea of where this is going:


Japan aged first, as its baby-boom births peaked between 1942 and 1949. This isn't on the chart, but in the 1960s, its peak labor force growth was 2.2%. As you can see, it fell to 0.4% in the 1990s, and -0.5% in the 2000s. This decade, it drops to -1.0%, and will continue in the red next decade at -0.7%.

Germany looks no better. That country peaked at 1.1% in the '80s and fell to -0.3% both this decade and last. In the 2020s they should see a crushing rate of -1.1%.

The U.S. has fared better due to high immigration in the past, but even that's been fading since the recession and will be still lower in this slow-growth economy.

Where does that leave us going forward? With fewer jobs, businesses won't expand into new office buildings or factories. With fewer jobs, fewer and fewer people will buy houses. Even with job growth aside, demographics will continue to eat away at real estate, as I showed in Chapter 3 of The Demographic Cliff.

There will be more boomers dying than new adults coming of age to buy homes, a reality that will cause net demand for homes to fall until 2039.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3267635-death-by-demographics-jobs-growth-projec...
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What's The Real Unemployment Rate In The U.S.?

Officially, the unemployment rate in the U.S. is 5.6%, meaning 5.6% of the work force is temporarily out of a job and actively seeking another one.

By my reckoning, roughly 60% of the civilian work force is fully employed and 40% are marginally employed (i.e. earning less than $15,000 annually) or unemployed.


These numbers align much better with the real economy than the official unemployment rate of 5.6%. It's nonsense to count everyone earning a few hundred or few thousand dollars annually as being employed in the same category as full-time workers or those earning $15,000 or more annually.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3269565-whats-the-real-unemployment-rate-in-the-...
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perceptions_now wrote on Jun 20^th, 2015 at 9:45pm:


"This is kind of like when GS goes on TV and tells you to buy oil while sending out a private letter to their HNW clients telling them to dump oil on the suckers they reeling in on TV. Happens all the time.."

There is a great deal MORE of this sort of behaviour, than is even occasionally hinted at AND IT IS A WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY, INVOLVING TPTB, POLITICIANS, BUSINESS, UNIONS & OTHERS!