Australian Politics Forum - For the Record

perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1260 - Jun 24^th, 2015 at 8:03pm

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 24^th, 2015 at 1:49pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2015 at 4:23pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 20^th, 2015 at 9:45pm:

Fed's Balance Sheet Hits 25% Of GDP

Summary
The Fed's balance sheet is now as high as it was in 1929 in terms of GDP.
Contrary to popular belief, they do not have much room to expand it.
China and Japan are running into similar barriers.

http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2015/6/17/saupload_20150616_FedGDP_th...

That's the size of the Fed's balance sheet in relation to the US GDP. It's gone from 6% in 2008 to 25% in 2015 so 19% in seven years is 2.7% or about 180% of our 1.5% average GDP growth over that time.
So all the money being printed by the Fed isn't just responsible for the stock bubble because, without it, we'd still be CONTRACTING!

That's why the markets get the shakes every time the Fed even hints at withdrawing what's still currently $65Bn per month that's being rolled over each month. If they stop rolling it over, that $780Bn/yr (4.3% of GDP) will have to come from somewhere else and, unfortunately, there is nowhere else for it to come from.

In fact, Bloomberg's poll of 15 top European Stock Strategists couldn't find a single bear in the crowd. Not even a neutral. All 15 of the forecasters had lowered their forecasts for the end of the year but all 15 still thought we're end up higher than we are now, despite Greece, despite Italy, despite slumping German Confidence...

Of course, that's what they are SAYING - what they are doing is a bit different as BAC is showing that EU Fund Managers have increased their CASH!!! allocations to six-year highs. This is kind of like when GS goes on TV and tells you to buy oil while sending out a private letter to their HNW clients telling them to dump oil on the suckers they reeling in on TV. Happens all the time..

"It's all heating up here," Nomora's Bahrke said. "If we're in July and we don't have a deal, I would expect some nasty volatility around European assets. This also will affect central banks and how the Fed thinks about external factors. It's decisive for European assets."

That's why the EU can still be SHOCKED if Greece actually does fall apart and leaves the EU. No one is seriously entertaining the idea because the repercussions are simply too horrible to contemplate. So, like good ostriches, they are keeping their heads firmly in the sand to ignore the danger - much like US traders are doing as well.

But don't worry, the Fed will fix everything....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3265065-feds-balance-sheet-hits-25-percent-of-gd...
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At some point, the music will stop, there won't be any seats left on the Titanic and the "games" will end and I suspect that time will be sooner rather than later!

http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2015/6/17/saupload_rearrange-deckchai...

"This is kind of like when GS goes on TV and tells you to buy oil while sending out a private letter to their HNW clients telling them to dump oil on the suckers they reeling in on TV. Happens all the time.."

There is a great deal MORE of this sort of behaviour, than is even occasionally hinted at AND IT IS A WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY, INVOLVING TPTB, POLITICIANS, BUSINESS, UNIONS & OTHERS!

The current Oil & Petrol issues are an example of "the games being played" by those in the know!

http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil

An example can be seen in recent Oil Price movements -
1) Around 3.50pm (Perth time) yesterday, the Oil Price fell, supposedly on US Supply data.
2) Around 8.33pm (Perth time) yesterday, the Oil Price dropped again, as US durable good orders supposedly dropped. The WTi price hit a low of $59.69.
3) Just after 9pm (Perth time) yesterday, a FedRes representative comes out saying, "there is a 50/50 chance of a rate hike in September.
4) By 10.30pm (Perth time), the Oil Price bounced to $61.00 and it is now trading at $61.15.
5) Yesterday afternoon, the US$ index was just under $0.94, now it is nearly $0.9530.

So, we have adverse data which "normally makes the Price Fall & we have a Rise on purchasing power, which would "normally" make the Oil Price lower, unyet the Oil Price still rises.

Oil Price - Go Figure?
Manipulation?

Oh & then there is our local Politicians (both major parties), happy to sit back & say ZIP about the OZ Petrol Price RIPOFF & BOTH ARE APPARENTLY HAPPY TO INCREASE THE PETROL TAX!

Petrol Price/Tax - Go Figure?
Manipulation/RIP OFF!

Oh & btw, the FedRes has two chances of raising interest rates this year -
1) None
2) & Buckleys

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1261 - Jun 26^th, 2015 at 1:40pm

I repost the following here, as it is relevant!

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 26^th, 2015 at 1:37pm:

A couple of things, to keep in mind regarding Credit Card rates -
1) People "sometimes" have choices, when it comes to adjusting their financial actions, But "sometimes" they do not.
2) The RBA Cash rate actually Peaked in early 1990 at around 17% & it is now 2%.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/chronology-of-interest-rate-moves-since-1990-2013...
http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/6510934-4x3-340x255.jpg
Whilst the Credit Card Rates Peaked a little later, then Declined to around 14% in 1994, before rising again to around 20% in 2008.

However, from around 2008 the usual correlation between RBA & Card rates has ceased!
After 2008 -
The RBA Cash rate Peaked around 7.25% in early 2008, the rate briefly dipped to 3% in early 2009, before rising again to 4.75% in late 2010, then finally Declining again, to now be at 2%.
BUT, Credit Card rates Peaked around 20% in 2008, the rate the rate briefly dipped to 17% in 2009, before rising again to 2% in 2010, which is pretty much where it has been since then!

So, SINCE 2008, THERE HAS BEEN A COMPLETE DISCONNECT, WITH THE REGULATORY AGENCIES, ALL POLITICIANS & THE BANKS, SAYING VERY LITTLE ON THE FACT THAT CREDIT CARD RATES HAVE BEEN ROBBING THE PUBLIC BLIND, OVER AT LEAST THE LAST 7 YEARS!!!

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1262 - Jun 27^th, 2015 at 11:30am

Greek, China woes slam Aust stocks

The Australian sharemarket has tumbled 1.5 per cent after negotiations between Greece and its creditors faltered, while a selling frenzy across Chinese stockmarkets gave local investors a fright.

It was one giant step forward and two small steps back in the Greek talks. While Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras insisted that a deal was still possible, Thursday's negotiations ended without result.

To add to the mess, bearish investors went into overdrive in Chinese markets, sending the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets into a nosedive, adding to the gloomy sentiment on the local market.

Friday's losses extended Thursday's active selling, which saw the local bourse drop 1 per cent, but over the week the benchmark index contained losses to only be down 51.1 points, or 0.91 per cent.

"Confusion continues to reign in global markets," IG market strategist Stan Shamu said, "a Greek deal is yet to come together and the threat of a messy default looms".

China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index plunged more than 5 per cent in afternoon trade, while the Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China's second exchange, was down more than 7 per cent.

“The index has risen 118 per cent in the last 12 months -- you can understand why traders are spooked as it comes off, there will be some retail investor panic as leveraged traders leapfrog each other to get out,” he said.

Mining stocks were plummeting today, after the price of iron ore resumed its losing run after a brief pause. The commodity has weakened in nine of the last 10 sessions, as oversupply fears threaten to push iron ore below $US60 a tonne for the first time in a month.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/breaking-news/greek-china-woes-slam-aust-st...
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Both the Greek & Chinese situations, are set to impact, both Local & Global share markets!
As shown in the following chart, the Chinese share market certainly seems over-exposed - Again!
http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1263 - Jun 28^th, 2015 at 3:55pm

Greek crisis: Parliament approves referendum, after bailout extension rejected - as it happened

Dramatic day sees Greek MPs vote to hold a referendum on its bailout terms, hours after European finance ministers refuse to extend its bailout, bringing default closer

Greek lawmakers on Sunday authorised prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ proposed 5 July bailout referendum, setting Greece on course for a plebiscite that has enraged international creditors and increased Greece’s chances of exiting the eurozone.

The government easily passed the 151-vote threshold needed to authorise the referendum, with deputies from the far-right Golden Dawn voting with the government and pro-European opposition parties New Democracy, Pasok and To Potami and the KKE Communist party voting against.

Greeks are due to vote on whether to accept or reject the latest terms offered by creditors to Athens in order to unlock billions of euros in bailout funds.

European partners have reacted negatively to the announcement of the referendum. On Saturday, they rejected a request by Tsipras to extend the current bailout in order to cover the period leading up to the referendum. The rejection means Athens is likely to default on a key payment to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday.

So, what a day. Thanks for sticking with us. I’d better shut down now. Back in the morning.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jun/27/greek-crisis-mps-referendum...
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Well, it seems that the very slowly moving "earthquake" MAY finally be picking up pace & next week "could see" some market volatility, in Greece, Europe & Globally?

Oh & yes, the article does show long lines, at the Greek ATM's!

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Ex Dame Pansi Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 24168	Re: For the Record Reply #1264 - Jun 29^th, 2015 at 6:05am The dominoes start to fall. We also will wake up one morning and the banks will be closed. Greek crisis: Banks shut for a week as capital controls imposed - live updates http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jun/28/greek-crisis-ecb-emergency-...
Back to top	"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Hendrix andrei said: Great isn't it? Seeing boatloads of what is nothing more than human garbage turn up..... IP Logged

perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1265 - Jun 29^th, 2015 at 10:39am

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 28^th, 2015 at 3:55pm:

Greek crisis: Parliament approves referendum, after bailout extension rejected - as it happened

Dramatic day sees Greek MPs vote to hold a referendum on its bailout terms, hours after European finance ministers refuse to extend its bailout, bringing default closer

Greek lawmakers on Sunday authorised prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ proposed 5 July bailout referendum, setting Greece on course for a plebiscite that has enraged international creditors and increased Greece’s chances of exiting the eurozone.

The government easily passed the 151-vote threshold needed to authorise the referendum, with deputies from the far-right Golden Dawn voting with the government and pro-European opposition parties New Democracy, Pasok and To Potami and the KKE Communist party voting against.

Greeks are due to vote on whether to accept or reject the latest terms offered by creditors to Athens in order to unlock billions of euros in bailout funds.

European partners have reacted negatively to the announcement of the referendum. On Saturday, they rejected a request by Tsipras to extend the current bailout in order to cover the period leading up to the referendum. The rejection means Athens is likely to default on a key payment to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday.

So, what a day. Thanks for sticking with us. I’d better shut down now. Back in the morning.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jun/27/greek-crisis-mps-referendum...
=======================================================
Well, it seems that the very slowly moving "earthquake" MAY finally be picking up pace & next week "could see" some market volatility, in Greece, Europe & Globally?

Oh & yes, the article does show long lines, at the Greek ATM's!

Well, it seems the "party" MAY be getting under way?

The ALL ORDS is currently down 115 - 2.08%
http://www.tradingroom.com.au/apps/index.ac

US DOW Futures is down 250 - 1.43%
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart

It could be a FUN DAY/Week?

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Ex Dame Pansi Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 24168	Re: For the Record Reply #1266 - Jun 29^th, 2015 at 11:42am The Nikkei down 2.17%.... I wonder what the stockmarket will look like by the end of the week.
Back to top	"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Hendrix andrei said: Great isn't it? Seeing boatloads of what is nothing more than human garbage turn up..... IP Logged

perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1267 - Jun 29^th, 2015 at 12:57pm

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jun 29^th, 2015 at 11:42am:

The Nikkei down 2.17%....

I wonder what the stockmarket will look like by the end of the week.

Well, it is always "somewhat difficult" to "guess" to ups & downs of Today, this Week or the near future.

But, in the Longer Term. of the rest of this decade & the next, I expect "the ECONOMIC BASICS", will push Global sharemarkets down by somewhere between 50 - 90%!

Those BASICS being -
1) Demographics - Aging, then Actual Decline
2) Energy - Supply & Pricing
3) Climate Change - Food & Water - Supply & Pricing

Oh & btw, as I have said previously, in Currency terms the US$ is go to Global Crisis Currency and again today, with the Greek issues heating up, the US$index went up 1 full cent, to Peak at 96.40 and it is now at 96.20.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

However, the US$ being the go to currency now, is "somewhat" hard to swallow, as the US is up to its neck in problems, which will eventually catch up with them & the rest of us!

Indications of that, can be gleaned from the following article -

Federal Reserve to wait a year to end bond buying

Fed must decide whether to reinvest $216 billion of proceeds from maturing Treasury securities in 2016, or shrink its balance sheet by allowing the debt to expire.

An analysis of data showing how the US central bank’s bond purchases since the global financial crisis have reshaped portfolios across the financial industry, suggests ending the buying could have a significant impact on the economy.

The Fed started its unprecedented bond purchases to reduce longer-term borrowing costs in 2008 as it cut the fed funds rate almost to zero. It bought Treasuries and mortgage debt in three waves of so-called quantitative easing that ended in October 2014, amassing a $4.2 trillion portfolio in the process.

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/z0YjuvaNO7W82a3t0eiSbJ/Federal-Reserve-to-wait-...
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If/when the Official & Unofficial US Government Debt & US FedRes Debt (which is magically driven via computers), were to come to the fore, then Greece would truly be a Minow & a baby minow at that and the US$index will final be view in REALITY!

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1268 - Jul 2^nd, 2015 at 1:46pm

Aust on track for decade of deficits

Australia is on track to record more than a decade of budget deficits, with a new report suggesting the likely reality is more dire than current projections.

The Grattan Institute working paper suggests both Labor and Coalition governments have been overly optimistic in counting on bracket creep and improved economic conditions to push the budget back into surplus.

“Hope is not a budget management strategy: it simply justifies putting off hard decisions, and shifts the costs and risks of budget repair onto future generations,” Grattan Institute chief executive John Daley said.

According to the think tank, the short- and medium-term outlook was predicated on misguided assumptions about revenue growth and spending restraint, with the result being no near-term relief to the size of budget deficits.

The report suggests deficits through until at least 2019, with net debt to peak in 2017 at a two-decade high of 18 per cent of GDP.

“Deficits are not likely to improve as the falling terms of trade and lower nominal economic growth drag on revenues at the same time as the government needs to fund substantial new policy initiatives,” the institute said in a statement.

The pain is shared through the states, creating a communication problem for governments across the country.

“Given the size of the task, Commonwealth and state governments will not be able to repair their budgets without both cutting costs and boosting revenues,”
Mr Daley said.

“That’s not an appealing prospect for politicians, but sustainable budgets require tough choices and brave leaders willing to make them. A vital first step is to face up to the scale of the problem.”

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/latest/aust-on-track-for-decade-of-defi...
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The fact is, Politicians from both major party's have not been facing up to REALITY for quite some time, decades in fact!

The fact is BOTH SPENDING & REVENUE MUST BE ADDRESSED AND ALL SECTIONS, HIGH, LOW & MIDDLE, MUST BEAR A FAIR SHARE OF THE LOAD OR EFFORTS WILL SIMPLY AMOUNT TO NOTHING!

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Ex Dame Pansi

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1269 - Jul 4^th, 2015 at 7:21am

perceptions_now wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2015 at 1:46pm:

The fact is BOTH SPENDING & REVENUE MUST BE ADDRESSED AND ALL SECTIONS, HIGH, LOW & MIDDLE, MUST BEAR A FAIR SHARE OF THE LOAD OR EFFORTS WILL SIMPLY AMOUNT TO NOTHING!

The low income earners are doing more than their fair share, unemployment benefits suit a 1980's economy.

The middle have a way to go, they're still getting far too much wealthfare.

The high income earners are the lepers of the colony, they mustn't be touched lest they 'forget' to write cheques for the government. They are the slackers, getting wealthier at the detriment of all those underneath.

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"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Hendrix
andrei said: Great isn't it? Seeing boatloads of what is nothing more than human garbage turn up.....

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1270 - Jul 6^th, 2015 at 8:32am

Greeks defy Europe with overwhelming 'no' vote in referendum drifting further into uncharted territory

Greeks have overwhelmingly voted 'no' to the terms of a European bailout, risking financial ruin in a show of defiance that could splinter Europe.

Official results from the ministry of interior showed 'no' ahead with 61.5 per cent compared to 38.5 per cent for the 'yes' vote with nearly 85 per cent of votes counted.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-06/no-prevailing-in-greece-referendum-telepho...
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DOW Futures down over 200 in early trading.
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart
A rocky road lies ahead!

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Ex Dame Pansi

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1271 - Jul 6^th, 2015 at 9:21am

I would have voted No, if I was Greek.

I'm so proud of the greek people for sticking up for themselves and sticking it to the people that were partly the cause of the problem in the first place.

Now let's see what ramifications this will have on the rest of Europe and the wider modernised world.

The EU will most likely wait and see, then if things get too rough they'll come up with some more financing, but on Greece's terms this time.

Otherwise......I don't know.

Do you Perce?

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"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Hendrix
andrei said: Great isn't it? Seeing boatloads of what is nothing more than human garbage turn up.....

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1272 - Jul 6^th, 2015 at 12:30pm

perceptions_now wrote on Jul 6^th, 2015 at 8:32am:

Greeks defy Europe with overwhelming 'no' vote in referendum drifting further into uncharted territory

Greeks have overwhelmingly voted 'no' to the terms of a European bailout, risking financial ruin in a show of defiance that could splinter Europe.

Official results from the ministry of interior showed 'no' ahead with 61.5 per cent compared to 38.5 per cent for the 'yes' vote with nearly 85 per cent of votes counted.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-06/no-prevailing-in-greece-referendum-telepho...
====================================================
DOW Futures down over 200 in early trading.
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart
A rocky road lies ahead!

Oh & Oil has dropped to around $55 a barrel.
AND, the Currency markets are all over the place, with the OZ$ falling below $0.75 to the US$ & the US$index spiking around 1.5cents from mid last week, to currently be around 96.40 to 96.60.

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John_Taverner

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1273 - Jul 7^th, 2015 at 4:43am

Now Germany and France are in a quandary. A low Euro is useful for trade. It will be interesting to see if Greece will still unilaterally adopt the Euro as a currency of convenience, but with no trading influence, similar to Kosovo and Montenegro as their GDP will be extremely low after they leave the Eurozone.

For both Europe and Greece, the best option is still for Greece to remain in the Eurozone, but that in itself would not be a palatable solution for Portugal, Spain and Italy. Either way, they stand to lose out. Italy's manufacturing base is already suffering. A high Euro would decimate it.

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« Last Edit: Jul 7^th, 2015 at 4:48am by John_Taverner »

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1274 - Jul 7^th, 2015 at 11:54pm

perceptions_now wrote on Jul 6^th, 2015 at 12:30pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jul 6^th, 2015 at 8:32am:

Greeks defy Europe with overwhelming 'no' vote in referendum drifting further into uncharted territory

Greeks have overwhelmingly voted 'no' to the terms of a European bailout, risking financial ruin in a show of defiance that could splinter Europe.

Official results from the ministry of interior showed 'no' ahead with 61.5 per cent compared to 38.5 per cent for the 'yes' vote with nearly 85 per cent of votes counted.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-06/no-prevailing-in-greece-referendum-telepho...
====================================================
DOW Futures down over 200 in early trading.
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart
A rocky road lies ahead!

Oh & Oil has dropped to around $55 a barrel.
AND, the Currency markets are all over the place, with the OZ$ falling below $0.75 to the US$ & the US$index spiking around 1.5cents from mid last week, to currently be around 96.40 to 96.60.

Oil now below $52 a barrel!
OZ$ now about to go under $0.74 to US$!
US$index now above 97!
Fun (?) still ahead on Global markets!

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