Australian Politics Forum - For the Record

perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1350 - Dec 28^th, 2015 at 1:13pm

Ikea’s tax bill dwindles despite big sales

Swedish furniture giant Ikea’s poor run of profitability in Australia has continued despite booming sales and a growing store network, with the group again sending tens of millions of pre-tax dollars offshore, significantly shrinking its profit and local tax bill.

While Australians’ love of Ikea furniture, housewares and storage products has never been stronger, with the retailer adding nearly $100 million in sales for the 2015 financial year, the global retail juggernaut cannot seem to get its after-tax profit moving in the same direction.

Ikea’s latest financial accounts, lodged with the corporate regulator and obtained by The Australian, include an impenetrable set of statements for the year to August 31, 2015.

The accounts include a series of unexplained costs and payments that amount to nearly $90m, which stripped away from an otherwise robust gross profit of more than $300m for the year.

The bottom-line results for Ikea Australia reveal net profit for 2015 actually fell to $15.1m, from $21.64m in the previous year, marking a massive 30 per cent slide in profitability for the period. Revenue for 2015 rose to $827.39m, from $733.46m, a gain of 13 per cent.

By the time a ‘franchise fee’ of $27.56m and ‘other expenses’ of $61.83m was applied to the retailer’s gross profit of $300m, Ikea’s profit before tax had been whittled down to only $24.47m. These other expenses do not cover the usual costs of doing business such as wages, advertising, rent and occupancy costs.

In 2014 it was a similar story, with franchise and other expenses totalling $70.9m while an opaque line item titled “payment under risk agreement’’ swiped another $37.06m from Ikea’s before-tax profit.

It is believed all of these payments are sent offshore to more friendly tax jurisdictions.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/breaking-news/ikeas-tax-bill-dwindles-...
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A few observations -
1) If it is so obvious, that Tax on Australian generated Profits are being "evaded", the Why doesn't the ATO take Legal action?
2) If the Proper amount of Tax on Australian generated Profits are being "evaded", because Australian Politicians have not done their job properly in constructing the OZ TAX LAWS, then its past time when they (our Politicians) were given the only message they understand.

Q. What is "THE message" that our Pollies understand?
A. Sack every "incumbent", at the next election & keep doing so,
UNTIL THEY FINALLY GET IT - THE MESSAGE!!!

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1351 - Dec 31^st, 2015 at 12:55pm

Growth Ain't What It Used To Be And Won't Be Coming Back Anytime Soon... Here's Why

Summary
Population Growth is the greatest factor in growing consumption and GDP growth.
Over the past 4yrs, the US Census has downgraded US population growth drastically.
Almost the entirety of the population downgrades have been among the future younger population segments...the impacts for unfunded SS, Medicare, and so much more has gotten so much worse.

Growth is all about greater flow, not stock. Said otherwise, growth in consumption and GDP generally happens via population growth, wage growth, and/or credit growth...the greatest being population growth.

So, in that context, the below probably matters (a lot).

In 2008, the US Census Bureau projected strong population gains through 2050 helping to drive growing consumption and US economic growth. The projected population growth was generally balanced across age segments primarily driven by gains in young Hispanics due to higher birth rates and immigration. But in 2012, in a story here the Census acknowledged that these were bad assumptions as these trends were not continuing, as had been expected. In December of 2014, again here, the US Census affirmed and further downgraded it's population projections from 2012. The Census now anticipates a 32% reduction from it's previous 2008 projections for US population growth from 2015 to 2050 (or about 36 million fewer Americans...chart below).

The US is still projected to grow by 77m but significantly less than the previous estimate of 113m. 95% of the cuts to the population growth are in the under 45yr/old population. As the chart below highlights, the cuts among the 0-24 and 25-44 populations were massive...the change in growth among the 45 and older miniscule.

The chart below highlights the reductions in population growth across the age segments, and as mentioned above, the 0-24yr/old population growth was slashed by 76% or 24 million fewer youth and 40% fewer 25-44yr/olds. That this isn't front page news is, I suppose, a sign of the times. GDP and potential economic growth estimates weren't ratcheted back to match the huge slowdown in young vs. continuing growth among older populations.

For those wondering when economic growth will be getting back to "normal"...the US Census has made it clear there is a "new abnormal"...in the new abnormal population growth is among the old. Little to no growth among the young. Wage growth is next to nil. The only hope for those awaiting "trend" growth is another doubling or tripling of credit / debt every seven years or so to move the needle along. Never mind that's pretty much next to impossible without the wheels coming off the cart.

Welcome to the new abnormal which the Fed, Federal .Gov, nor Wall St. will acknowledge. And if our leadership won't even acknowledge there is a problem, we can take none of the necessary though painful steps to begin a resolution.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3782536-growth-aint-what-it-used-to-be-and-wont-...
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A few observations -
1) It is not only the US Government & Central Banker, that would even acknowledge there are issues here, let alone acknowledging there are Problems, let alone acknowledging those Problems are "once in history" and they definitely are not going near the fact that these Problems do not have "auto solutions", like those administered to the usual Business cycle ups & downs!
2) The issues raised here, do not just apply to the USA, they are pretty much Global, with some variations AND THE FLOW ON EFFECTS ARE & WILL BE ENORMOUS!
3) The US Census is still not "coming clean" with the full likely outcomes AND they are MILES OUT on the 45 & over estimates, as pretty much ALL OF THE MILLIONS (usa)/BILLIONS (GLOBAL) of BABY BOOMERS WILL BE DEAD BY 2050!
4) Demographics are not the only MAJOR factor now influencing the Global Economy, with the following also having major impacts -
a) ENERGY - Via Demand, Supply & Pricing!
b) Climate Change - Via Food & Water Supply/Pricing AND impacts on Economic Destruction & increased Debt via the Cost/s of preventing or Repairing Damaged infrastructure & Agriculture.

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1352 - Dec 31^st, 2015 at 2:59pm

Apple said to pay Italy $477m in tax-avoidance deal

Apple will pay Italy's tax office €318 million ($477 million) to settle a dispute over allegations it failed to pay taxes for six years, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said on Wednesday.

Italian prosecutors have been investigating allegations that Apple failed to pay corporate taxes to the tune of €879 million in 2008-13 by reducing its taxable income when it booked profits generated in Italy through its Irish subsidiary
, sources told Reuters earlier this year.

"Apple will pay the tax agency €318 million
and will sign a new tax accord for fiscal years 2015 onwards
early next year," the source said.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/apple-said-to-pay-italy-570m-in-ta...
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Interestingly, whilst this story has been raised on ABC TV & seems to have broken Globally some 13 hours ago, it still doesn't appear on the main Google news site!
https://news.google.com.au/nwshp?hl=en&ei=t7OEVtj4FIXV0ATD_oaQDA&ved=0EKkuCAkoBw
I wonder why that could be?
But, if you type in Italy, then there are quite a few stories -
https://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&gl=au&tbm=nws&authuser=0&q=largest+global...

That said, it is further "Proof" that our Politicians (both Liberal & Labor) are gutless & they are not pursuing our (ALL OF US) Best, Long Term interests!!!
Why didn't they take the Italian line???

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1353 - Jan 1^st, 2016 at 9:58am

So, END OF YEAR?

OZ All Ords finished 2015, Down 21.8 on the last day of trading for 2015, to finish slightly Down for the year @ 5,344.60.
Down 0.82% for year, which is not the usual.
2014 finished trading @ 5,388.60.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EAORD#symbol=%5EAORD;range=1d

The US DOW finished 2015, Down 178.84 on the last day of trading for 2015, to finish slightly Down for the year @ 17,425.03.
Down 2.23% for year, which is not the usual.
2014 finished trading @ 17,823.07.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#symbol=%5EDJI;range=1d

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1354 - Jan 3^rd, 2016 at 5:55pm

The Four Horsemen Of The Recession

Summary
No, we are not in a recession yet.
Yes, we are headed for one in 2016.

We are headed for recession.
The recent ISM manufacturing survey reading of 48.6 (50 is neutral) provoked a Street investment bank to remark that such negative readings had preceded a recession about 65% of the time.

Like the Fed, my conclusions are data driven, perhaps more so than at the Fed itself, about whom Larry Summers recently commented that the Fed has never seen a recession coming that was less than one year off: "While recession risks may seem remote given rapid growth (!), no post-war recession has been predicted a year ahead by the Fed, the administration or the consensus forecast." Summers has a point about the Fed, though I don't know of any basis for his remark about rapid growth.

I do not agree that all is well today and am going to present a series of reasons why, beginning with the trend in retail sales. Retail spending is about two-thirds of GDP, and while the Commerce Department's monthly report on retail sales doesn't fully capture the category, it's both a useful and instructive place to start.

Here is a chart of the 12 twelve-month (TTM) sales growth through November using unadjusted data:

Note that the current rate of TTM growth is 2.28%, below the rates of September 2008 (2.37%) and August 2001 (3.19%), when we were already in recession.

Year-over-year monthly sales growth was quite feeble in October (+1.76%) and November (+1.37%), the weakest comps for these two months since the last recession.
Note also the steep slope in the chart above of the decline in the growth rate since April 2015. When annual retail spending growth heads towards the 2% level, recession looms.

Wall Street doesn't acknowledge recessions until everyone knows we're in one.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3785426-the-four-horsemen-of-the-recession-part-...
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It should be noted that THE MAJOR reason for the post GFC recovery, was the massive stimulus programs courtesy of the major Global Economies & Central Banks.
However, whilst these actions prevented a "more massive & longer term" Economic Collapse, it DID NOT ACTUALLY STIMULATE A REAL GROWTH RECOVERY, ALTHOUGH IT DID RAISE DEBT TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVELS, WHERE THEY CAN NOT GO HIGHER & WILL FINALLY THESE LEVELS OF DEBT WILL MEAN THAT FURTHER STIMULATION IS NOT POSSIBLE!

At some point & I suggest 2016 will see the start, we will see GFC2 firmly start and there are no measures left which will have the usual effects, so the Global Economy will hit the skids, with Shares initially plunging 40-50%!
Real Estate will also take a BIG HIT Globally AND as Economic Demand slides, Energy Prices (particularly Oil) will again take another Substantial Hit!
So, whilst the Politicians won't say anything, be careful & do what you can, to seek protection against what is coming!
And finally, this time will be different AND THERE WILL BE NO BOUNCE BACK, this Economic Collapse will be long & things will get tough, SO DON'T BELIEVE ANY OF THE POLLIES!

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1355 - Jan 4^th, 2016 at 4:25pm

China factory activity shrinks again

China's factory activity contracted for the 10th straight month in December, and at a sharper pace than in November, a private survey shows.

The findings dampen hopes that the world's second-largest economy will enter 2016 on a steadier footing.

The Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipped to 48.2 in December, below market expectations for a slight pick-up to 49.0 and down from November's 48.6.

The reading was the lowest since September, remaining below the 50-point level which demarcates contraction from expansion on a monthly basis.

The survey focuses more on small and medium-sized private firms. An official survey on Friday, which looks at larger state-owned companies, showed a fifth month of contraction though at a slightly more modest pace of 49.7.

Both surveys pointed to a gradual loss of momentum, not a sharper deterioration which has been feared by global investors.

Still, economists expect more interest rate cuts and other stimulus in 2016 as the economy has been unusually slow to respond to a year-long flurry of support measures, suggesting it is facing deeper-rooted cyclical and structural challenges than in the past.

The government is expected to increase its budget deficit to about 3 per cent of gross domestic product in 2016 to help boost activity.

Weighed down by weak demand at home and abroad, factory overcapacity and cooling investment, China is expected to post its weakest economic growth in 25 years in 2015,
with growth seen cooling to around 7 per cent from 7.3 per cent in 2014.

Some market watchers suspect real growth is lower than official data suggest.

'We are reviewing our 7.0 per cent forecast for fourth-quarter 2015 GDP growth for downward revision,' ING said in a research note on Monday ahead of the PMI survey.

'It's a consensus view that China's GDP growth is poised to slow further to 'about' 6.5 per cent in 2016.'

Beijing's progress on reforms may also be a risk factor, after its surprise yuan devaluation in August and heavy-handed stock market rescue in summer raised questions about its ability to enact market liberalisation steps.

After picking up for the first time in seven months in November, the Caixin PMI output sub-index dropped to 48.7 in December, its lowest in three months.

http://www.skynews.com.au/business/business/world/2016/01/04/china-factory-activ...
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Like other Global Governments, the Chinese figures can be "somewhat" RUBBERY!
That said, Chinese & Global Demand is COOLING and that is set to continue, irrespective of what Stimuli's are applied, AS THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC DRIVERS ARE NOW SET AT DIFFERENT LEVELS AND THE USUAL ECONOMIC "FIXES" WILL NOT STIMULATE THOSE CURRENT ECONOMIC DRIVER LEVELS!

In fact, the Global Economic Growth will continue to slide further, for some time to come!!!

PS - DOW Futures are now down some 170 points, whereas it was up around 30-50 earlier this morning.

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1356 - Jan 4^th, 2016 at 7:22pm

Following News out of China today, the Chinese A50 market has -
Declined 610 Points (5.70%) - Finishing @ 10,101

http://www.investing.com/indices/ftse-china-a50

Europe is currently down around 2-3%
http://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

US DOW Futures are currently down around 260 points (1.50%)
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1357 - Jan 4^th, 2016 at 7:35pm

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 4^th, 2016 at 7:22pm:

Following News out of China today, the Chinese A50 market has -
Declined 610 Points (5.70%) - Finishing @ 10,101

http://www.investing.com/indices/ftse-china-a50

Europe is currently down around 2-3%
http://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

US DOW Futures are currently down around 260 points (1.50%)
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart

China stocks slump 7pc on opening day of 2016, trading halted for first time

The Chinese share market has been forced to close early after stocks tumbled on the first day of trade for the year, triggering a new "circuit breaker" mechanism.

The system, which came into effect today, forces the market to close if China's CSI 300 index of blue chip shares moves by 7 per cent.

The index fell by as much with an hour-and-a-half left in the trading day, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 6.9 per cent.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-04/china-trading-halted-as-stocks-slump-7pc/7...
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Happy New Year???

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John_Taverner Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2212 Gender:	Re: For the Record Reply #1358 - Jan 5^th, 2016 at 11:32am The All Ords hasn't exactly haemorrhaged yet. Down just 1% at noon. The AUD needs to come down a lot more too.
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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1359 - Jan 6^th, 2016 at 10:59pm

Wti Oil is currently trading Down some 3.5% today & is currently under $35, at $34.66.

The above is an 11 year low and in my opinion, the major causes being Global Demand Decline & a rising US$, currently at 99.33 on the US$ index, which is up several cents over the last couple of days.
The likely causes of the US$ rise, are Declining Global Economic conditions & news out of North Korea today!

Oh & US DOW Futures are currently Down over 300 points (some 1.75%), indicating it may be another interesting night???

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« Last Edit: Jan 6^th, 2016 at 11:06pm by perceptions_now »

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1360 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 2:20pm

The major cause of the oil slump is the fact that OPEC have stopped regulating production to keep tabs with demand /maintain high pricing. One of the stated reasons for doing this was to drive a lot of the small US producers out of business.

It's like organised dumping on a major scale.

http://www.profi-forex.us/news/entry4000007339.html

Quote:

OPEC Continues Oil Dumping

Mon, 07 Dec 2015 19:36:00 +0400

Friday's OPEC summit seems to have failed to come up to our expectations. The thing is that the trading community had expected an oil production cut or at least no change in these terms. However, I dare assume that none of you can say they were betting on another production hike by OPEC. Apparently, a production cut may have stabilized the situation in the global market of crude oil. Even if there had been no change made, the prices would have felt less downward pressure. Still, despite the increasing oversupply of crude oil in the global market, OPEC is not going to cut the oil production. On the contrary, they cartel is reported to have raised the bar from 30 million all the way up to 31.5 million barrels a day. At least this is what Bloomberg reports. This triggered a slowdown across the oil market and outside of it. Later on, the Iranian Minister of Oil disproved the rumor by saying that OPEC that production quotas hadn’t been added to the agenda at all.

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« Last Edit: Jan 7^th, 2016 at 2:26pm by John_Taverner »

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1361 - Jan 7^th, 2016 at 3:37pm

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 4^th, 2016 at 7:35pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 4^th, 2016 at 7:22pm:

Following News out of China today, the Chinese A50 market has -
Declined 610 Points (5.70%) - Finishing @ 10,101

http://www.investing.com/indices/ftse-china-a50

Europe is currently down around 2-3%
http://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

US DOW Futures are currently down around 260 points (1.50%)
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart

China stocks slump 7pc on opening day of 2016, trading halted for first time

The Chinese share market has been forced to close early after stocks tumbled on the first day of trade for the year, triggering a new "circuit breaker" mechanism.

The system, which came into effect today, forces the market to close if China's CSI 300 index of blue chip shares moves by 7 per cent.

The index fell by as much with an hour-and-a-half left in the trading day, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 6.9 per cent.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-04/china-trading-halted-as-stocks-slump-7pc/7...
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Happy New Year???

Chinese markets are at it again today, Down 7% and then suspended trading, after the Yuan was again devalued!

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/china-halts-share-trading-after-7-rout-tr...

In turn, the OZ All Ords finished down 109 points @ 5,069.

Other Asian markets also Down around 2% +.

The US DOW Futures also currently down around 180 points (1% +)
The DOW finished Down overnight 252 points, to finish under 17,000, @ 16,906.

Finally, Wti is currently slumping again & is currently trading @ $33.14.

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John_Taverner Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2212 Gender:	Re: For the Record Reply #1362 - Jan 8^th, 2016 at 6:37am The Dow dropped 385 points in one trading session. Pity help Australian markets. At least the dollar will plunge now.
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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1363 - Jan 8^th, 2016 at 12:17pm

John_Taverner wrote on Jan 8^th, 2016 at 6:37am:

The Dow dropped 385 points in one trading session. Pity help Australian markets. At least the dollar will plunge now.

Well, at least the VIX (Volatility Index) has had a good Christmas & New Year, it has consistently gone UP, since just before Christmas!
http://www.investing.com/indices/volatility-s-p-500

Meanwhile, the DOW finally finished Down 392 overnight, in the good old USA!
The DOW Futures are now trading UP around 150 (just under 1%)!
The Shanghai Exchange doesn't seem to be trading, yet!
The Chinese A50 is UP & DOWN, its everywhere, But currently UP around 130 (1.30%)!
AND, the OZ All Ords, has also been UP & Down & is currently Down around 23 points, @ 5,046!
Oh & the OZ$ is current UP about a third of a cent!
GO FIGURE!!!

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1364 - Jan 8^th, 2016 at 3:51pm

perceptions_now wrote on Dec 16^th, 2015 at 2:53pm:

Baltic Dry Index falls to 484, down 24

Today, Tuesday, December 15 2015, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 24 points, reaching 484 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world.

Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793.

The lowest level ever reached was on Tuesday, December 15, 2015, when the index dropped to 484 points.

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-dry-index-falls-to-484-down-24/
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http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

The Baltic Dry Index is a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity, based on the Rise & Fall & Demand & Supply, of dry bulk carriers, for commodities shipped aboard dry bulk carriers, such as building materials, coal, metallic ores, and grains.

The BDIY has continued its Downward trend and it's latest reading now sits at 445, which is an all time low!

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

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