oh dear wrote on Feb 12^th, 2016 at 6:06pm:


We were a little ahead of you, then.

I did some research, in late 2006 and I concluded that there would shortly be a Global Downturn, so we sold all of our shares, in the early part of 2007.

That meant, we missed out on the last bit of the Global Shares Peaking, around October 2007.
But, it also meant, we missed out on the 50% Decline that followed.
It also meant, we missed out on the 80% following increase, which Peaked in 2015 & the subsequent 20% Decline, till now.

And, if I am correct, it will also mean, we will miss out on the continuing Decline, which I suspect may see the OZ ALL Ords finally show a number starting with a 2.

Hopefully, we are both making the best choices, for ourselves!


Cheers!

oh dear wrote on Feb 12^th, 2016 at 6:06pm:


I know how you feel. I divested of my high risk portfolios when the All Ords was at 5900.

I was tempted to buy again this week, but I'll leave it for a month or two to see the market bottom out.  There must be at least one more dead cat bounce to come 

The Global Economy Is Absolutely Imploding

The truth is that we are in the early chapters of a brand new economic meltdown, and I believe that all of the signs indicate that it will continue to get worse in the months ahead.

#1 Chinese exports fell by 11.2 percent year over year in January.

#2 Chinese imports were even worse in January.  On a year over year basis, they declined a whopping 18.8 percent.

#3 It may be hard to believe, but Chinese imports have now plunged for 15 months in a row.

#4 In India, exports were down 13.6 percent on a year over year basis in January.

#5 In Japan, exports declined 8 percent in December on a year over year basis, while imports plummeted 18 percent.

#6 For the sixth time in six years, Japanese GDP growth has gone negative.

#7 In the United States, exports were down 7 percent on a year over year basis in December.

#8 U.S. factory orders have fallen for 14 months in a row.

#9 The Restaurant Performance Index in the United States has dropped to the lowest level that we have seen since 2008.

#10 This month the Baltic Dry Index fell below 300 for the first time ever.

#11 It is now cheaper to rent a 1,100 foot merchant vessel than it is to rent a Ferrari.

#12 Orders for Class 8 trucks in the United States dropped by 48 percent on a year over year basis in January.

#13 Due to a lack of demand for trucks, Daimler just laid off 1,250 U.S. workers.

#14 Even though Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to freeze oil production at current levels, the price of U.S. oil has still fallen below 30 dollars a barrel.

#15 It is being reported that 35 percent of all oil and gas companies around the world are at risk of falling into bankruptcy.

#16 According to CNN, 67 oil and gas companies in the United States filed for bankruptcy during 2015.

#17 The number of job cuts in the United States skyrocketed 218 percent during the month of January according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

#18 All over America, retail stores are shutting down at a stunning pace. 

-Wal-Mart is closing 269 stores, including 154 inside the United States.
-K-Mart is closing down more than two dozen stores over the next several months.

-J.C. Penney will be permanently shutting down 47 more stores after closing a total of 40 stores in 2015.

-Macy’s has decided that it needs to shutter 36 stores and lay off approximately 2,500 employees.

-The Gap is in the process of closing 175 stores in North America.

-Aeropostale is in the process of closing 84 stores all across America.

-Finish Line has announced that 150 stores will be shutting down over the next few years.

-Sears has shut down about 600 stores over the past year or so, but sales at the stores that remain open continue to fall precipitously.

#19 The price of gold is enjoying its best quarterly performance in 30 years.

#20 Global stocks have fallen into bear market territory, which means that about one-fifth of all global stock market wealth has already been wiped out.

#21 Unfortunately for global central banks, they have pretty much run out of ammunition.  Since March 2008, central banks have cut interest rates 637 times and they have purchased a staggering 12.3 trillion dollars worth of assets. 

There is not much more that they can do, and now the next great crisis is upon us.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-17/21-new-numbers-show-global-economy-abso...
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It is clear, despite what many/most Politicians may say, that the Local & Global Economies are in Decline!

During most of the Modern Economic era, the Economy could be relied on to bounce back, mainly because the large Population Growth  would automatically create "Growing Demand" & thus re-ignite Economic Growth.

BUT AS THE GLOBAL POPULATION NOW AGES RAPIDLY, THAT GROWTH IS NO LONGER THERE & AT SOME POINT, IN THE NOT TO DISTANT FUTURE, POPULATION & ECONOMIC GROWTH, WILL ACTUALLY GO INTO DECLINE!!! 

Whilst the major Economic driver has been/is Population Growth, there are also other major issues, which are also no longer guaranteed Drivers of BIG Economic Growth, those being -
Energy - Declining Supply Growth & Pricing issues!
Climate Change - The old Goldilock Global Climate, IS NOW GONE!
Technology - Once also virtually guaranteed Economic Growth, But that guarantee is no longer!

So, despite what the Politicians may say, it is also clear that the "old Economy" is dying and there really isn't much more that Governments/Central Banks can now do, having not taken the correct measures over many decades!

Now, the next great crisis is upon us and Governments & CB's have none of the usual ammunition left, so this crisis (GFC2) will prove to be the Great Economic Unwinding!

DXY is showing an upturn for February though.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 19^th, 2016 at 12:17pm:


Which demographic would be the major contributor to that growth?

People are all too quick to dismiss the 65+ demographic, but they typically have more funds to invest. Will a proportional increase in seniors result in an increase in capital investment?   

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/pf/06/demographictrends.asp

The argument usually used is that with more people in the 50-65 age range, what happens when an ever increasing  proportion of them retire?

This is balanced to some extent by other trends, such as a growth in technology, increased automation, increased use of offshore consultants and freelancers (eg software developers, industrial design, industrial construction etc)

In other words, these factors enable us to do more with fewer resources.

John_Taverner wrote on Feb 27^th, 2016 at 2:22pm:


The 45-55 year old group, is the largest positive influence!
You can forget the 55+ group, they may have the funds, BUT they simply won't spend it, because they don't know what is coming & they are afraid it isn't good, WHICH IT ISN'T!

The US coal industry is in an increasingly desperate situation. Despite the fact that coal still accounts for a huge percentage of US energy consumption, the industry is on the brink of collapse. As technological, political, and societal forces are all aligning against coal, US coal companies will likely continue to experience a severe downturn.

The US, and the world in general, is clearly planning to shift away from coal towards cleaner energy alternatives. While coal has driven the world for centuries, it is rapidly becoming a remnant of the past.

Unsustainable Business
The US coal industry is facing threats from nearly all directions. Not only is coal under threat from increasingly harsh anti-coal policies, but it is also facing enormous market pressures from other energy sources. Declining natural gas prices, for instance, have put a huge strain on the US coal industry over the past few years.
Solar, in particular, poses a huge threat to coal given solar's exponential growth nature. The long-term promise of these new energy technologies certainly does not bode well for coal.
As coal companies are confronted with the ever-growing problem of stranded assets, investors should stay far away from the industry.

Coal Companies Are Collapsing
With some of the largest US coal companies like Arch Coal filing for bankruptcy, the situation could not be worse for the industry. Most recently, Peabody Energy announced that it may be on the brink of bankruptcy. This news should be especially concerning for coal investors given Peabody Energy's status as the past decade's industry leader.

Peabody Energy also admitted that "the continued uncertainty around global coal fundamentals, the stagnated economic growth of certain major coal-importing nations, and the potential for significant additional regulatory requirements imposed on coal producers" should play a big role in the company's prospects. Major US coal companies like Alliance Resource Partners, Consol Energy (NYSE:CNX), and Foresight Energy will likely continue to face downward pressure moving forward.

Policy Environment Is Getting Worse
Anti-coal policies will only compound the industry's massive problems moving forward. The trend towards cleaner energy policies has become clear given the outcome of the Paris Climate Summit and the implementation of numerous anti-coal policies like the Clean Power Plan.

Given that coal is one of the dirtiest fossil fuels, a cleaner energy policy will be especially devastating for the coal industry.

Conclusion
The coal industry is clearly standing on its last legs. Even notoriously heavy coal consuming countries like China are starting to wage a war on coal. As global demand for coal continues to plummet, US coal companies will find themselves in an increasingly untenable situation.

With all the problems plaguing the US coal industry, investors in major US coal companies would be wise to sell their holdings.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3961956-coal-industry-brink-collapse?ifp=0
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Corporations Are Defaulting On Their Debts Like It's 2008 All Over Again

The Dow closed above 18,000 on Monday for the first time since July. Isn't that great news? I truly wish that it was. If the Dow actually reflected economic reality, I could stop writing about "economic collapse" and start blogging about cats or football. Unfortunately, the stock market and the economy are moving in two completely different directions right now. Even as stock prices soar, big corporations are defaulting on their debts at a level that we have not seen since the last financial crisis.

Get ready to step over some landmines, investors. The number of companies defaulting on their debt is hitting levels not seen since the financial crisis, and it's not just a problem for bondholders.

So far this year, 46 companies have defaulted on their debt, the highest level since 2009, according to S&P Ratings Services. Five companies defaulted this week, based on the latest data available from S&P Ratings Services. That includes New Jersey-based specialty chemical company Vertellus Specialties and Ohio-based iron ore producer Cliffs Natural. Of the world's defaults this year, 37 are of companies based in the U.S.



Meanwhile, coal producer Peabody Energy (BTU) and surfwear seller Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ:PSUN) this week filed plans for bankruptcy protection. Shares of Peabody have dropped 97% over the past year to $2 a share and Pacific Sunwear's stock is off 98% to 4 cents a share.

So why are stock prices soaring right now? After all, it doesn't seem to make any sense whatsoever.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3966401-corporations-defaulting-debts-like-2008?...
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Well, it may not make any sense whatever, BUT IT IS HAPPENING, so the question is WHY?